The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Boris Johnson ordered the planning of a military operation against the Netherlands to retrieve COVID vaccines; not an invasion, just a SMO. You just need to give them the right circumstances.
How unthinkable do you think it is for the British Army to shoot British civilians on British soil? Just give them the right circumstances.
Are you calling US uncivilized? What do you mean by "each other"? What other is "thinkable"? Bombing is all good but you draw the line at invading? SF and bombing still good for you? What is the difference between invaded and "really invaded"?

Over a year? Have you being doing that planning or where is that data coming from?

Yes, Zelensky's delusional plan of NATO fighting his war, Zelensky telling the uncivilized US what its duty is; that simple.

You are telling those countries what their mentality is and Zelensky is telling US what its duty is, that simple; but, of course, the willingness ("mentality") to invade is not the capacity/ability (can) to invade.
Coming back to the reality of the battlefield... Putin took a decision based on his view of Russian interests (invasion) as Zelensky took a decision based on his view of Ukraine interests (and its capacities, but maybe not a very accurate view of those.)
About Moldova and Georgia:
Despite large Russian interference that should be accounted for, the results of the polls were disapointing for Europe. In both countries, pro-European parties and presidents won by a thin margin. While it can be understandable for Georgia because it's not an European country (despite what others may say), for Moldova it's incomprehensible. It should be soemthing like 70 or 80% pro Europeam. Russian propagand should not be able to influence that much the election if the population is convinced that the European way is the best way.
With the war in Ukraine, it's even more diffficult to understand how some people in Moldova can vote for pro-Russian parties.
Let's keep this thread on topic. This is a military forum, and this is a thread about the Russo-Ukrainian war. General political discussion is against forum rules and a narrow amount of it as it pertains to geo-strategic and security topics should be done in the appropriate thread.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The situation in the Seversk salient remains shrouded in fog. After footage that confirmed neither Ivano-Darievka nor Vyemka under Russian control we now have footage that confirms both are under Russian control. The map has been recolored but it raises questions. It's possible that the nature of the terrain and the difficulty of digging in have created a very large no-man's land where neither side really has control and instead occasionally demonstrates presence without lasting consequences. Even as this is unfolding Russian troops have been slowly gaining ground in the hills, and my personal guess is that once Russian forces control all or most of the high-ground the other areas will be under Russian control as well. I think this is one of those areas where control of the villages is far less significant. I would also point out that along with Chasov Yar this area is Ukraine's most successful defensive operation this year. Russian forces made substantial gains across the rest of the Donbas and Kharkov region on the Oskol. Russian forces have made minimal efforts to push in Zaporozhye but gained ground when they did, closing the Rabotino salient. The Seversk salient remains an area where Russian forces have tried and failed to break Ukraine's defense.
 

Fredled

Active Member
According to Heinrich Torsten's summary, Russians keep pushing on Terny south-east of Kupiansk, and on Pershokrovnivne (spelling may be incorrect) west of Solydove.

They took Novooleksiivka in the Pokrovsk sector. This is not technically an advance toward the city of Pokrovsk, but rather a reinforcement of their position in the region.

They entered Steponifska and Antonivska north of Vuhledar, slowly closing the Kurakove pocket. Ukrainians seem to retreat from this area by fear of being trapped between the water reservoir and Russian lines.

Russians also made a small advance in the Ohrikhiv direction which have been dormant for quiet a while.

No change noticed in the Kursk and kharkiv axis.
_________________

Now that Trump is elected, Ukrainian fighters in the Donbass' trenches are looking at their watch, counting down the hours, because the war is supposed to stop exactly 24 after Trump wins the election. (16 hours have passed already) They are looking forward to return home.

More seriousely, the consensus is that nobody knows what Trump will do. Even anonymous sources close to re-elected President don't know. Probably, Trump doesn't know either.
There is high chance that Mike Pompeo will return as defence advisor, which would be positive for Ukraine. but so far, nothing can be asserted one way or another.

Peskov doesn't seem over exited at Trump's victory.
Peskov said:
(I'm) not aware of any plans by President Vladimir Putin to congratulate Trump.

Let's not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state.

It is almost impossible to worsen them further, relations are at their historically lowest point. What happens next will depend on the next U.S. leadership.
This speaks for itself: Trump was definitely not the Kremlin's candidate.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
According to Heinrich Torsten's summary, Russians keep pushing on Terny south-east of Kupiansk, and on Pershokrovnivne (spelling may be incorrect) west of Solydove.
If he is claiming this, he is very confused. The village you're thinking of is called Pershotravene in Ukrainian and Pervotravnevoe in Russia, and it translates roughly to First Grassy Place. It is nowhere near Selidovo, or Selidove in Ukrainain. Instead it is also near Kupyansk, to the east-south-east of it, near Lozovoe, south of Berestovoe, and just south of the Russian salient at Peschanoe. Together with the southward push out of Kolesnikovka-Kruglyakovka, and the push on Lozovoe, these are all efforts to move towards Borovoe.


They took Novooleksiivka in the Pokrovsk sector. This is not technically an advance toward the city of Pokrovsk, but rather a reinforcement of their position in the region.
This is the one that's west of Selidovo.


Now that Trump is elected, Ukrainian fighters in the Donbass' trenches are looking at their watch, counting down the hours, because the war is supposed to stop exactly 24 after Trump wins the election. (16 hours have passed already) They are looking forward to return home.

More seriousely, the consensus is that nobody knows what Trump will do. Even anonymous sources close to re-elected President don't know. Probably, Trump doesn't know either.
There is high chance that Mike Pompeo will return as defence advisor, which would be positive for Ukraine. but so far, nothing can be asserted one way or another.

Peskov doesn't seem over exited at Trump's victory.
This speaks for itself: Trump was definitely not the Kremlin's candidate.
Russia doesn't currently have friends in the west. People being accused of being pro-Russian or Russia's friend is mostly a smear. It doesn't mean all candidates are equally unfriendly to Russia, but of course Trump is not the Kremlin's candidate. He is however a candidate that's more likely to cut aid to Ukraine.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Well, one thing that I think of is the current US administration might rush larger arms packages in the remaining months.

If there is one certain thing with the incoming Trump administration on Ukraine, aid will likely be reduced significantly. This would be even more likely if they control both House and Senate.
 

rsemmes

Member
It seems that they heard me this time... or it is an opportunity advance.

They are moving towards Velika Novosilka (a long way SW from Pokrovsk) now, according to Kalibrated. Then Roszdolne-Roszliv and Andriivka.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Has President Putin admitted that sanctions are damaging its economy in a televised speech as per this article with federal ministers previously this was denied?
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
If he is claiming this, he is very confused. The village you're thinking of is called Pershotravene
Yes, he is often confused with Russian/Ukrainian names with more than two syllables. The village is indeed Pershotravene but he pronounces Pershotravshneve ;) .

There was an important Russian mechanised attack there.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
It was reported today and later confirmed by the Pentagon that the White House has cleared the way for the American defense contractors to operate in Ukraine for the purposes of repairing the US-provided “advanced” equipment. F-16 and Patriots were singled out specifically and later Bradleys and other “complex systems” were thrown into the mix.

The Pentagon said Friday that it will send “a small number” of U.S. defense contractors to Ukraine, where they will repair advanced American-made weapons, including F-16 fighter jets and Patriot air-defense systems, donated by Western allies amid Russia’s invasion.[…]

The U.S.-funded contractors will be far from the front lines and won’t be fighting Russian forces, defense officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Their employers will be responsible for the contractors’ safety and security while in Ukraine, and “risk mitigation plans” will be required as part of companies’ bids for the work, officials said.


The officials also confirmed that the American personnel had already been working in Ukraine though. My understanding is that this is simply extending the scope and official recognition of the fact, deepening the involvement in the war.

U.S. defense officials declined to say where in Ukraine the contractors will be based, citing security sensitivities, but noted that numerous U.S. companies already have personnel in the country to perform work for the Ukrainian government. U.S. contractors also already have signed contracts with the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development, including to bolster Ukraine’s energy grid as it is attacked by Russian airstrikes and drones. A significant amount of international help for Ukraine is based in the western part of the country, far from the front line.



A recent RUSI article suggests that one shouldn’t expect any weapon deliveries to Ukraine from South Korea. Beside the internal legalities, three quarters of the population opposes provision of lethal weapons to Ukraine, while only 20% support such a move, which also incidentally corresponds to the proportion of the population that support the current government; the opposition is basically insisting that the current involvement is already beyond their comfort.



An interesting video was spotted in a post by Rob Lee and later elsewhere, where the Russian Su-25 jets are firing directly at (alleged) Ukrainian positions in Antonivka at Kurakhove direction. Rob Lee’s post on X and the same video at the Military Observer Telegram channel:


This kind of proximity of the Russian aircraft to the combat zone hasn’t been observed in months. The last time I remember seeing numerous reports and videos like this dates back to early spring or so, when the aid package was stuck in the House and Russians were doing the same, as well as dropping bombs on Ukrainian positions around… hmm, if I recall correctly the Chasiv Yar area and elsewhere.


Russia and Ukraine exchanged bodies of fallen troops. Ukraine provided 37 bodies of the Russian troops and received 563 in return. This is a (reliable) Russian source, but it was reported by the western media as well if someone has doubts for the validity of the report for whatever reason:


I always found these exchanges interesting. The previous exchange took place on October 18 when Ukraine recovered 501 bodies and returned 89 (cited in the article as well). I am fairly certain (from memory) that every single such reported exchange is extremely skewed as these last two are, numbers wise. I feel like a deja vu and probably had already talked about it previously.


Only citing a post on X here since I don’t have the subscription to read the entire article anyway, but some Ukrainian commanders report a collapse of morale at the most difficult areas of the front. The AWOL was already discussed here a few times, even with the official attorney general numbers cited. But it certainly appears that things aren’t improving and are likely getting worse. I would propose that this is will only get much worse within the next few weeks or couple of months simply due to the uncertainty created by the election results. On this note, I wonder if Biden administration will now make some rushed decisions that, perhaps, are not thoroughly thought through and may be regrettable, for the lack of a better word, in the foreseeable future.

IMG_7908.jpeg

Post on X: x.com

Regarding the last point of uncertainty. I see a lot of talk about Trump being elected that goes from a complete stop of aid to the exact opposite - a provision of unrealistic quantities of the said aid in order to push Russia to negotiate. The latter is, in my mind, undoubtedly unrealistic. While the former is far from a given, but I certainly see that as a more likely scenario. I will not expand on this further at this time though and would likely need quite a bit more space than this post allows for.


A good article about the training of the Ukrainian personnel in the EU on the example of Poland.


A few things that stick out:
- the training lasts 21 days, the timeline determined by Ukraine and, really, the realities of the battlefield;
- those that are trained to be trainers in Ukraine are eventually send to the frontline and are killed;
- those that are trained to work in unison are later broken up by Ukraine and sent to different sections of the front;
- basically, inefficiencies exist, to say the least.


Lastly, an interesting development. This was first reported by the infamous Ukrainian lawmaker Mariana Bezugla and has now been confirmed by the numerous Ukrainian sources. It appears that Syrsky had directed the Odessa recruitment authorities to specifically find Sternenko (I am assuming everyone knows the guy). The reason for this is that he regularly criticizes the Ukrainian command and Syrsky in particular. According to some, including Bezugla herself, the guy’s efforts provided more FPV drones to the Ukrainian forces than the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence (I’d personally consider it as an exaggeration, but the point is fair). This lady surely stirred the pot quite a bit lately, but, ironically, turned out to be if not 100% then very close it correct on her “propositions”.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The author posted a correction to the Economist article I cited yesterday in the post above. The correction is that Russia is growing its forces, not just replacing the losses.

IMG_7913.jpeg

Source: x.com

I have talked about it previously: if the reports of their recruitment of 30,000 troops per month are correct and I do not see why they wouldn’t be as all intelligence communities and analysts suggest exactly that, it is obvious that the forces would grow every month by a few thousands. I wouldn’t be surprised if they reactivate some new old areas of the front, such as Zaporozhie, for example, in the near future.


I read that the Russians have resumed their offensive in the Kursk region and made some significant progress, capturing a few villages, and threatening to encircle some Ukrainian forces around Kruglenkoe. I can’t locate the map at the moment, so take it as a hearsay for the time being.


Interesting thing is that Ukrainians started setting up mockup equipment in Kursk. The fourth video in the following thread shows a mockup BMP being hit with a Russian optic cable drone:


On the mockup subject, I am not going to look and post any videos now, but I have seen plenty of videos of Russians setting up soldier dummies and even groups of for the Ukrainian FPVs to hit. I also saw at least one video where a Russian soldier was pretending to be one of those dummies and it didn’t end well for him.

At the end of the day, I wonder how efficient any of this is, provided that the number of such drones is measured in the millions per year. Especially the effort it would take to set up a dummy BMP in the area where optic-cable FPVs with their very crisp picture seem to be prevailing. Surely seems like wasted time and effort to me. But, of course, I am on the somewhat comfortable couch thousands of miles away.


There are some pics surfaced of the Russian decoy UAV they have been sending in great numbers. It looks like a pile of rubbish made to fly and packed with stuff to enhance its radar signature. Not a bad solution for the time being. Pics can be found here:



Over the past few months, there were a number of posts about various units and groups collecting donations as if fighting for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and being quite successful (in both, pretending to be great fighters and collecting a lot of money). One of such groups in particular is the so-called Georgian Legion. Today, the story of the Legion culminated quite nicely. This guy, Jay Beecher, wrote an article in September about the Georgian Legion basically being a bunch of fraudsters. Today, he made the post, outlining the death threats he received, the Legion boys coming to his residence and harassing his wife/girlfriend, threatening her, etc. The guy is basically scared for his (and his loved one) life now and looking for help. Some crazy stuff that is par for the course though. His post on the subject:



it appears that the Kurakhove direction continues to crumble and significantly and increasingly so. I won’t be surprised if we see this whole big chunk turning into the Russian captured territory before the end of the year. Here is the map quite nicely outlining the Russian gains from October 12 to November 8:

IMG_7909.jpeg

Source: x.com

Note, in the same thread the person who created the map was accused of being a pro-Russian. Another (great) cartographer responded and was also said to be pro-Russian. I am laughing here, actually. Probably some have noticed that nowadays Deepstate is being accused of being pro-Russian. I wonder if people throwing these accusations know that Deepstate is actually working for the Ukrainian MoD. I guess, and to be fair, those people don’t know and straight up don’t want to know much at all (the reason Georgian Legion and the like are thriving collecting money).

Last Deepstate’s update for the Kurakhove area showed the following, by the way, and I am assuming things are worse in reality:

IMG_7914.jpeg

It clearly looks to me like Russians have started breaking through (or already did) the first line of fortifications at Kurakhove itself, the lines that looked pretty impressive on the map (I posted one a couple of times recently).

Here is another map showing fortifications and supply routes in the east and south (don’t think I posted this one before):

IMG_7763.jpeg

The source is the same person that created the map I posted above the Deepstate’s. That one is from a while back, maybe a month ago (?) or so.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk area.

Russian forces have resumed attacks in Kursk region, capturing Pogrebki, Mar'evka, and Orlovka from the north but are now facing Ukrainian counter-attacks.


We have interesting footage of a failed Russian attack in Kursk region. It appears two motor-rifle companies riding BTR-82As (ATs?) hit a minefield and lose many vehicles. Russian commentary claims this is due to a recon failure, but there is another possibility. We recently saw 3 Ukrainian remote minelayers near Kursk area. It's possible Ukraine set up an unexpected minefield after Russian recon but before the attack. On a side note the minelayers all have foldable drone cages.


An interesting video showing how survivable the Bradley is, it takes two impacts, and a near-miss from a mortar but keeps moving apparently unaffected. This is the Glushkovo area.


We have our first use of Copperhead guided artillery shells by Ukraine. On the one hand they're better then unguided shells. On the other hand, they're not Excaliburs, and don't really offer an advantage against Russian Krasnopol' shells.


We have continued evidence of Russian National Guard units being involved in the fighting, here they are striking a Ukrainian MBT.


Russian UCAV strikes continue.


A Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP-1 decoy.


Russia drone finishing off a disabled Kozak armored car in Dar'ino village, Kursk region.


Russian wire-guided drone strike on a Bradley. It appears the infantry doesn't realize the drone is there until the last moments.


Russia strikes two Marders with Vandal drones.


A Ukrainian Abrams getting hit by a Russian Vandal drone, wire-guided.


Russian FAB-3000 strike in Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.


Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian staging area near Ivolzhanskoe, Sumy region. Note the single missile is likely not enough to thoroughly destroyed all those scattered vehicles and personnel.


A Russian strike on a concentration of Ukrainian forces in the Kursk borderland.


And another one, in the Kiyanitsa border area, Sumy region.


A destroyed Stryker near Leonidovka.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles in Sumy region. We have a Bradley, and an Oshkosh M-ATV.


Russian forces evacuating a knocked (destroyed?) out M113 and an FV432.


Another batch of Ukrainian POWs.


Russian artillery and mortar operations, from the Arbat volunteer btln, Kursk border area. The howitzer is a D-20.


Russian forces have been spotted with a wheeled Tor-M2 in Kursk area. We recently saw another such system in Crimea. These may have been SAMs meant for Armenia.


Ukrainian M109A4 in the Kursk border area.


Kharkov area.

Ukrainian forces have regained some ground around Liptsi and Volchansk.


Some combat footage out of Volchansk. We see a Russian soldier tossing an explosive pack to blow up a building, and we see some drone strikes footage.


Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian infantry in Volchansk, allegedly these are the "Russian" volunteer corps.


Russian National Guard drone strikes on allegedly Ukrainian drone operator positions.


An interesting video out of Liptsi. It shows what appears to be a Ukrainian drone operator staging area, and Russia hitting it. They identified it based on an antenna, then watched to see if they will launch drones to confirm.


Ukrainian BTR-4 getting taken out, Kharkov area.


Russian TOS-1 strikes in the Kharkov border area.


In Belgorod a Ukrainian UAV hit a residential building wounding 5 and causing a major fire.


Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Oskol front.

The push southward and westward continues towards Borovoe. While I initially included the Peschanoe salient as part of the Kupyansk area because it is, the directionality of the attacks towards Borovoe and the very limited movements northward point to this really being an effort in support of Russian actions west of the Zherebets. In Terny Russian forces are pushing slowly southward through the village, gaining some ground. Russian forces did secure most of Kolesnikovka, northward.


An interesting look at a Russian D-20 position on the Liman area. Note the position is partially underground and appears to be able to close the opening where the gun comes out of. The wheels of the gun carriage are removed and instead the spoke moves on guides to come out fire, and get moved away again.


Seversk salient.

Vyemka and Ivano-Darievka are now again under Russian control. Maybe. As I wrote before, there is a lot of fog here, and I have suspicions that neither side really controls them. More significant I think is the continued slow Russian advance along the high ground north of Ivano-Darievka.


Russian bomb strikes in the Seversk area.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces continued to gain ground south of Chasov Yar, capturing more of the mine complex there but were pushed back with a Ukrainian counter-attack. Fighting is on-going.


Chasov Yar, an M80 IFV from allegedly Ukraine's 24th Mech Bde hits a mine, infantry dismounts and Russia attempts to finish them with I think artillery.


Russian Lancet finishes off a disabled Ukrainian T-80U near Chasov Yar.


Russian drone strikes continue near Chasov Yar. These are all on Ukrainian infantry positions.


Russia's depth-charge launcher continues operating near Chasov Yar.


Toretsk.

Russian offensives here are halted. There is still fighting going on but it's more positional. A small Ukrainian counter-attack recaptured a couple of streets in Druzhba.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian van. Note the van has an EW setup. The drone is wire-guided so it doesn't help.


Wire-guided drone strike on a Ukrainian Roshel Senator armored car.


Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces have been pushing west and north-west out of Selidovo. West they've taken Novoalekseevka. North-west they're not crossing the Solenaya river (salty river). As a result they've taken the southern halves of the villages Grigorievka and Petrovka, but haven't crossed the river. Russian forces have also advanced northward near Vozdvizhenka. This is the area where Russia halted one row of villages away from the road Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka. Russian forces also continue to gain in the fields north of Selidovo.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian humvee near Petrovka.


Russian Krasnopol' fires near Pokrovsk. They're guided by an Orlan-30.


Russian strikes near Pokrovsk, two on BvS-10s, and the other on an FV103 Spartan.


Russian wire-guided drones strike a T-80BV and a BMP-2.


Repeated drone strikes on an M777 howitzer near Pokrovsk. Except there's no gun crew and we don't see it firing, suggesting this might be decoy. There is a fire afterwards so perhaps it is real and the crew scatterred into shelter when they saw/heard the drone coming.


A series of drone strikes and then a Lancet on a Ukrainian T-72M1.


Some footage from Russian forces inside Selidovo show the town relatively intact. There's battle damage but unlike Popovka, or Volchansk, the town isn't just rubble. It's likely Russia will be trying to rebuild it assuming the keep it in the post-war settlement.


Kurakhovo area.

The south-western push out of Selidovo has broken into Sontsovka, which is north of Starie Terny and north-north-east of Shevchenko, both villages west of Kurakhovo. If this pincer completes, we may see Russia complete an encirclement attack instead of threatening it and then forcing a withdrawal. It's unclear if that's the plan. Russian forces have also entered Zarya, west of there. Novodimitrovka is under Russian control. Near Kurakhovo itself Russian forces continue to gain ground in the fields to the east, and have taken the major Ukrainain strong point immediately east of the town. North of the reservoir Russian forces have taken Stepanovka, and have entered Il'yinka. Russian forces have also taken a large chunk of the fields south-east of Kurakhovo, making Ukrainian positions in the Sukhie Yaly river valley more precarious from the north.


Russian forces advancing in the Kurakhovo area.


A destroyed Iveco LMV in the Kurakhovo area.


A destroyed Ukrainian pickup truck in the Kurakhovo area. For Ukraine pickups and for Russian UAZ "loaf" vans are key to front line logistics.


This is a good shot of the Ukrainian strong point east of Kurakhovo that Russia has just captured.


Russian forces are hauling away a Leo-2A4 near Pobeda. Three such tanks were taken out there along with iirc two M113s in a failed Ukrainian counter-attack.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ugledar area.

Russian forces continue to bite off pieces in the fields south of Sukhie Yaly river. It appears Russian forces are consolidating control over the area after the earlier series of relatively rapid movements. Currently Russian forces in the area threaten Velikaya Novoselka from the east, and even north-east, and theoretically could be the southern pincer for encircling Ukrainian forces in Kurakhovo but it's not clear if this will play out. In Antonovka Russian forces gain more ground but the western side of the village remains contested and there's a Ukrainian strong-point immediately west of it. Trudovoe also remains contested.

At the former Vremyevskiy Bulge area Russian forces have entered Makarovka, though with the current configuration of the front I think a move from the east or even north-east against Velikaya Novoselka itself could make many of these small frontal advances irrelevant.


We have an interesting video of Russian forces using an up-armored GAZ-66 truck as an assault team transport on the front line. We've had information about some of the first Russian motorized units being stood up this year, who don't have armored transports. But this is the 57th Motor-Rifles. After the Russian assault team enters the trees, we see a Ukrainian MaxxPro International rapidly retreating.


Russian assault teams near Trudovoe using a BTR-82A and a BMP-2.


Russian forces entering Antonovka.


Russian strikes on allegedly Ukrainian supply vehicles between Ugledar and Kurakhovo. The impact of drone strikes on logistics is often not immediately obvious but it's there.


Russian forces, 40th MarBde, take out a Ukrainian 2S7 Pion. This is a fairly rare system in Ukrainian service.


Russian FAB strikes on Uspenovka, north of Trudovoe.


Captured Ukrainian positions near Shahterskoe.


Battle damage in Uspenovka, this village is another key point to capture.


A Russian Buk-M1 in Ugledar area.


Zaporozhye.

Russian forces gain ground on the western flank, north of the former Rabotino salient.


Russian FAB strikes on the Zaporozhye front line.


A Ukrainian T-80BV, Zaporozhye area.


Ukrainian soldiers filmed a portion of their defenses. You can see triple-row of dragon teeth, and land mines. It's unclear which way this faces so we don't necessarily know if the mines are in front or behind the obstacle. This clearly isn't the front line, rather it's probably the Ukrainian defense line being built in Zaporozhye.


Dnepr front.


Russian UAV watches a Ukrainian howitzer take position in the trees, and then a drone hits it. Allegedly it's a PzH-2000 but we can't really tell.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russian strikes in Kiev, air defenses are firing.


Damage in Kiev after Russian Shahed strikes.


Russian Shaheds over Odessa.


Russian strike on the Motor Sich plant in Zaporozhye and possibly other targets.


Some reports indicate that as many as 50% of Russia's drones are decoys.


Ukraine launched a major drone wave towards Moscow. 32 drones are reported downed. Russian interceptor drones were used.


Ukraine attempted to strike the base of Russia's Caspian Flotilla with a pair of UAVs but one was shot down and the other apparently missed. The drones appear to be A-22 light planes. Russian ships left harbor in the aftermath.


Interesting bits.

Russian source reveal the death of Major General Klimenko, commander of the 5th Motor-Rifles Bde, a former DNR commander.


Russia's VT-40 FPV drone is being adapted for wire-guidance and we have first instance of it's use.


And we have a Ukrainian wire-guided drone.


Russia hauls away another Leo-2A4. Note it has frames for ERA tiles on the hull but no ERA tiles. Russian forces probably removed those for their own use.


Russian forces have apparently started using DPRK Type 73 machineguns.


Russian Sarmat-3 armored car seen again.


An interesting video where a Ukrainian service member complains about low quality mortar shells that often fail to fire. Note these are Ukrainian-made munitions.


Ukrainian forces operating a Hydrema MCV 910 mine-clearing vehicle.


Ukraine's 100th Mech received Bradleys in quantities unknown. Note the unit previously got Marders.


Some footage of Ukrainian decoys including an S-125 decoy that Russia hit.


Ukraine's 148th Arty Bde with their Caesar howitzers.


France has promised another ten SCALP-EG missiles, and some Mistral SAMs (the missiles).


There are also reports that Ukraine will get more AGM-88E HARMs.


And Australia will reportedly hand over some JDAM-ERs.


Something interesting has happened. Russia has apparently released some Ukrainian POWs not part of an exchange, but as some sort of amnesty release. Apparently this is done with service-members whose home towns are now under Russian control and who have family living there that are able to come and pick them up.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
This is a good shot of the Ukrainian strong point east of Kurakhovo that Russia has just captured.

This is an excellent thread with satellite photos about the fortifications in and around Kurakhove (readable to all):

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
France has promised another ten SCALP-EG missiles, and some Mistral SAMs (the missiles).

10 is a whooping number! Depending on the target, I am assuming enough for one or two potentially good strikes. The reality is that France likely doesn’t have much to give and reportedly not ordering more SCALP missiles neither for Ukraine nor for itself to replenish the stocks.

IMG_7917.jpeg

Source: x.com

On the subject of SCALPs, the latest reports suggests that the Ukrainian administration says that Starmer is not welcome in Kiev unless he can promise to supply more Storm Shadow missiles.

Ukraine’s relationship with the UK has “got worse” since the Labour government took power in July, officials in Kyiv have told the Guardian, voicing frustration over Britain’s failure to supply additional long-range missiles.

The UK prime minister is yet to visit Ukraine four months after taking office and a frustrated Kyiv has said that a trip would be worthless unless Keir Starmer committed to replenishing stocks of the sought-after long-range Storm Shadow system.

“There’s no point in his coming as a tourist,” one senior figure in Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s administration said at a time when Ukraine is acutely concerned about the impact that Donald Trump’s US election victory will have on its war effort.[…]

Ukraine’s principal complaint with the UK is that it has not supplied any additional missiles from its reserves of Storm Shadow, even for use against targets in Crimea and other Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia since 2014.

The official said: “It isn’t happening. Starmer isn’t giving us long-range weapons. The situation is not the same as when Rishi Sunak was prime minister. The relationship has got worse.”[…]

Privately, sources in Kyiv complained that the meeting in Hungary led to “no progress at all” on the missile issue. Until deliveries of Storm Shadow resumed there was little point in Starmer travelling to Kyiv, they added.

“We have been discussing since August a possible visit by Starmer. Various dates have come and gone. Starmer has postponed several times,” the official said. They added: “There’s no point in his coming as a tourist. At the moment he’s not willing to take the decisions which are necessary.”



I am really rather amazed with the… not sure what to call it, really… the nerve, the impudence…

Common sense suggests there aren’t many missiles left to supply. Moreover, imagine having the nerve to talk this way being in the situation Ukraine is in. It sure has been a trend for the past couple of years. I am also amazed no one has yet had publicly put them in their place. Instead, it seems to work the other way around, like in bizarro world.

There are also reports that Ukraine will get more AGM-88E HARMs.

I believe the claim is that these are upgraded or the newer versions of the missiles that Ukraine (officially) hasn’t yet had. I will have to look for a source.

And Australia will reportedly hand over some JDAM-ERs.

They have been likely supplying Ukraine with these bombs since at least mid-spring, likely much earlier than that.



The New York Times reported that Russia has amassed 50,000 troops, including North Koreans, for their offensive in Kursk.

The Russian military has assembled a force of 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, as it prepares to begin an assault aimed at reclaiming territory seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region of Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials.

A new U.S. assessment concludes that Russia has massed the force without having to pull soldiers out of Ukraine’s east — its main battlefield priority — allowing Moscow to press on multiple fronts simultaneously.[…]

One Western official said Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk in August thinned out its forces across the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, leaving them vulnerable to Russian advances. But that official, and U.S. officials, said Ukraine still had a strong defense in Kursk and might be able to hold, at least for a time.



“Might be able to hold at least for a time” the territory they will not keep regardless in exchange for the territory they are losing and likely not getting back is a great strategy, of course. But that has been discussed already.

The article is also contradictory to others and itself. They say that Russia has gathered 40,000 (50K less 10K reported North Koreans) troops in 3-4 months for their counteroffensive. At the same time, it suggests that

Russia is struggling to meet its monthly recruiting goal of roughly 25,000 troops as its casualties mount, meaning the North Korean soldiers are critical.

That’s a weak point provided their own report and other recent reports by the respectable organizations.



There was some talk about the Russian MIC exports recently. Per the fella from RUSI, citing and not disagreeing with the Rosoboronexport numbers, Russia had exported $5B worth of weapons to Africa in 2023.

IMG_7918.jpeg

Source: x.com


The Georgian Legion has doubled down after yesterday’s happenings, if anyone is interested:

IMG_7920.jpeg

Source: x.com


Trump has spoken to Putin, according to the Washington Post report.

During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe, said a person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

The two men discussed the goal of peace on the European continent and Trump expressed an interest in follow-up conversations to discuss “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon,” one of the people said.[…]

Ukrainian officials have been informed of the Putin call and did not object to the conversation taking place, said two people familiar with the matter. Ukrainian officials have long understood that Trump would engage with Putin on a diplomatic solution to the war, the people said.


Imagine they did object. Maybe even called Trump names and told him he is not welcome in Kiev unless! Haha. They are even going an extra mile trying to replace the ambassador to the US that Johnston had requested to do (the article talks about it too).


I wonder if Musk was on the call as he reportedly was with Zelensky.
 

PipeRain

New Member
Well, one thing that I think of is the current US administration might rush larger arms packages in the remaining months.

If there is one certain thing with the incoming Trump administration on Ukraine, aid will likely be reduced significantly. This would be even more likely if they control both House and Senate.
That would be against the will of American people.
 
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