The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

This article states the cost to the budget of compensation and would appear to be enormous if correct

Russia’s payments to soldiers and their families amount to eight percent of federal spending, study finds — Meduza

The Russian government paid soldiers and their families between 2.75 trillion and 3 trillion rubles ($31 billion–$33.9 billion) in salaries and compensation payments between July 2023 and June 2024, according to a new estimate by the policy group Re:Russia.

meduza.io

 

[rsemmes]

For how long Russia will be able to regenerate their forces?
How long before inflation starts to hit the fan?
How long before Russians learn the truth about Russian casulaities?

If Ukraine cannot regenerate it's forces, that is not that important.
If it "hits the fan" in Ukraine first, it may not be important at all. Anyway, yes, how long? What if Ukraine starts getting less money? How soon is that going to happen?
How long before they know in Ukraine?

"South Korean law prohibits the exporting of weapons to active conflict zones.
In June, Seoul said it would reconsider this in relation to Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un signed a security agreement in Pyongyang."

South Korea supplying weapons to Ukraine directly unlikely given legal hurdles, experts say

South Korea has hinted it could change its long-standing stance on not providing Ukraine directly with weapons in light of the dramatic escalation of North Korea's role in Russia's full-scale invasion. So far, Seoul has only provided humanitarian and non-lethal military aid to Kyiv, but on Oct...

kyivindependent.com

North Korea, not US (nor Ukraine) is the issue for SK. Still is SK going to provide (if) 100% or 10% of what US is not going to provide? When and for how long? If ever.

Keep the patient (Ukraine) bleeding, hoping for something great (and it has to be huge too) in the future.

 

[Fredled]

Ukrainian strike on Caspian Sea Fleet:

On November 6, 2024, Ukraine almost certainly targeted the Caspian port of Kaspiysk in Russia with an Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The port highly likely hosted multiple Russian Navy vessels at the time, with at least two likely Gepard-Class frigates sustaining damage.

the extent of this damage is currently unknown, however any damage to the vessels will highly likely be quickly repaired.

Russia's Caspian flotilla was probably used for mass attacks on the territory of Ukraine in 2022 and The Russian Caspian Flotilla was likely used to launch mass attacks against Ukraine in 2022 and has continued to be used to launch infrequent attacks through 2023-2024. Ukraine likely attacked the Caspian Flotilla in retaliation for these strikes on its territory

link

Note that military vessels are able to move from the Caspian Sea to the Black see back and forth on water ways.
The damages are small, but as a first try, it's not bad.

Ukrainian Encircled in Kursk Region:
Ukrainian commandos rescue 16 soldiers from encirclement in Kursk region
It's the first time that Ukrainians admitted that their troops were encircled in the Kursk salient. Russia has claimed that 2000 of them were encircled two few weeks ago (and repeated it daily since).
Of course Ukes are not telling us how many they didn't rescue... and how many were left. But it's unlikely to be 2000.

Zelensky on Negotiation:

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are possible under the conditions that Ukraine is not alone standing against the Russian Federation, under the conditions that Ukraine is strong. What kind of negotiations are those where you simply talk with the killer? If we talk to Putin and if were are not strengthened, as we are now, this would a losing status for Ukraine at the input. This is not about a just peace. Of course, in a weak situation, there is nothing to do at these talks

link

"It is beneficial for him (Putin) to sit down (at the negotiating table - ed.), but it is not beneficial for him to negotiate. It is beneficial for him to agree on some capitulation conditions from our side, but no one will allow him to do that

link
________________________

If Ukraine cannot regenerate it's forces, that is not that important.

No it's not important because it goes without saying. Ukraine has no other choice but to replenish its forces or disappear as a state.
The Ukrainian government will not take the decision not to do it because they can't take such a decision. And so they will do it as much as possible,

However Russia can stop replenishing their troops. Maybe Putin can't for personal reasons, but Russia can, if they choose so. And it would be even a good thing for them.
Russia could stop hiring soldiers, stop spending billions in military gears and still not lose one inch of territory. It's not even sure if they would lose a lot of territory inside Ukraine. Probably a little but not all.

That's a huge difference and that's why this topic is only discussed for the Russian part.

If it (inflation) "hits the fan" in Ukraine first

It won't because Ukraine is living on foreign financial aid nominated in USD and EUR. There is little incentive for the Ukrainian treasury to print Hirvinas massively because what they need first and foremost is hard currency to pay for everything they need to import in this period of war. And their receive huge sums of these hard currencies.

In Rusia, the situation is the opposite: Hard currencies inputs are being replaced by soft currencies inputs like the Yuan and the Rupiah. As Russian soldiers and workers in the military industry are not exited about Rupiah, Russia has no other choice but printing money.

More accurately speaking: In Ukraine you have inflation due to foreign currency arriving in the country. The Hirvina is little changed against the EUR or USD but prices a rising because those who gets the Dollars can afford to pay more. While in Russia you have a progressive debasement of the Rouble. The Rouble is going to be worth less and less, not only against foreign currencies but in term of buying power just because they are available in larger quantities.

How long before they know in Ukraine?

Ukrainians know immediately what happens in their country because they live there. When missiles are falling on their town, they know it because their house can be hit and they can be the next victim. Believe me: They do know.

Russians, on the opposite, are not aware of the horrors happening in Ukraine. Even when they have access to some video material, they don't believe it. They discard it as Western propaganda or simply don't want to accept the truth.
There are soldiers who come back from the front and tell about their stories. That's already huge, because their stories are not the official one. But these soldiers just know what they have seen: Their comrade blown into pieces by the hundreds. i.e. their own suffering. But they have not seem everything the Ukrainians have seen on a daily basis. And they have not seen evidence that the Russian propaganda they are fed with is not true because these evidences are visible only on the Ukrainian side. These soldiers can also speaks for their area of responsibility and don't know the total number of the losses of the Russian army.
Yet, slowly the truth is slipping through.

____________________

The reason is that France is financialy close to bankrupcy.

I think this overstates the situation somewhat. Most rating agencies still give France a AA credit rating.

@Fredled, in regard to your “stupidity” comment:

I answered here.

 

[seaspear]

There are still pipelines supplying gas from Russia going through Ukraine to landlocked European countries under a five year deal expiring at the end of the month ,Ukraine has announced this will not be renewed,Imnot sure if these or any are now under Russian control would these be an objective of Russia to seize

 

[KipPotapych]

There are still pipelines supplying gas from Russia going through Ukraine to landlocked European countries under a five year deal expiring at the end of the month ,Ukraine has announced this will not be renewed,Imnot sure if these or any are now under Russian control would these be an objective of Russia to seize

Russia currently doesn’t control any segments of the pipeline, including the metering station in Sudzha, Kursk Region. Most of the length of the pipeline(s), and currently in use in particular, (about 3/4?) also lies within Ukraine past Dnipro river.

To seize control of the pipeline would not be realistic. I would be more concerned about the destruction of the pipeline once the Russian gas deliveries stop. I do not mean literal destruction (since that is not possible), but making it inoperable.

Deliveries to Austria had already stopped as of this morning due another issue:

Russia's Gazprom stops the flow of natural gas to Austria, OMV utility says

Austrian utility OMV says supplies from Russia’s state-owned natural gas company Gazprom stopped early Saturday after the company said it would stop payments for the gas following an arbitration award.

apnews.com

While Russia would be losing more than Ukraine in absolute numbers when the gas transit through Ukraine stops, Ukraine is actually going to be losing significantly more in relative terms. Even if the transit is negotiated to continue, Ukraine is still going to lose a lot of cash when the current contract expires because they now get paid by Gazprom for the gas that is not pumped through the system, as per the terms of the contract.

The image above is from the following article, which also discusses a bit of what I said in the previous paragraph:

The end of Russian gas transit via Ukraine and options for the EU

The EU should seek a common position on the upcoming end to the contract governing Russian gas transit through Ukraine

www.bruegel.org

 

[KipPotapych]

Just some interesting things I saw over the past couple of days.

Allegedly, consequences of the Kurakhove dam breach. Exact location is not provided:

Exilenova+

Последствия разрушений на Кураховском водохранилище.

t.me

The new era of FPV drones with cages has begun, haha. I can’t find a better video I saw yesterday where there is a drone caged all around with the operator kicking it around, but here is one posted by the Ukrainians, where the cage is really hard to see but is there; the drone is Russian (I think the other one was cited from a Russian source and maybe Feanor will include in his next update):

Exilenova+

Украинские пилоты Бпла зафиксировали вражеский дрон мавик с Мангалом..Тревожно

t.me

Another adaptation for interception of UAVs by Ukrainians:

Exilenova+

Привыкаем к аппарату.. единственный минус подлокотника нема.

t.me

The Ukrainian “recruiter” shooting (yes, actually shooting) at the future potential “recruit” who is running away (and I think he did run away):

Exilenova+

А на этом видео мы видим бег на 200 метров с препятствиями, но спортсмен выполнил все задания хорошо, я бы сказал даже… “ПОТУЖНО”

t.me

Same video on Twitter, geolocated:

x.com

x.com

Ukrainian official statement enclosed and interpreted in the same Twitter thread:



The war is extremely hard on the real battlefield I imagine. Especially a war like this one. The Ukrainian drone operators filmed a Russian soldier hanging himself in the trench while being attacked by munitions from the drone (that did not hit him).

Exilenova+

Мы не знаем что это такое.. в коллекцию.

t.me

Reactions to the post and comments do show how sick the societies are. People actually enjoy seeing this stuff. I am assuming none of these people have been in a trench like that or anywhere near the frontline. Some are from far away places on other continents expressing their overwhelming happiness. Pretty sick stuff, in my opinion.

Another invention, this time by Russians. Some kind of anti-armour gun that I have no idea how they are going to operate. At least one of the wheels is losing air the cameraman says and he is disappointed.

Exilenova+

Мы не знаем что это такое …. Эксперты)))..??

t.me

Russians (at least that’s my understanding) are evacuating a Leo while being watched by a drone:

Exilenova+

Leo…

t.me

Russian troops in a grouping of fair size are being hit by GMLRS. Three direct strikes followed by a cluster. Claimed to be in Zaporozhie.

Exilenova+

Аеророзвідка 128-ї гірсько-штурмової Закарпатської бригади навела HIMARS на велике скупчення окупантів у н.п. Таврія Запорізької області 47.35176009440257, 35.54769932768806

t.me

Same video on Twitter:

x.com

x.com

Almost as many Ukrainians managed to fit into and on top of a MT-LB and were hit by the Russians. All on top appear to be either departed or heavily wounded, the alleged driver and gunner guy take off running into the woods, while those inside trying to get out being shot as they exit until the remaining occupants start throwing their guns out surrendering. Claimed to be in Kursk.

Военный Осведомитель

Поражение FPV-дроном украинской МТ-ЛБ, до отказа забитой солдатами как сверху, так и внутри. Водитель подбитой машины убежал, оставив множество погибших и раненных. Часть солдат противника была уничтожена, уцелевшие стали сдаваться. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

This is completely insane, in my opinion, but the Ukrainian troops fighting in Russia will receive extra bonuses and other “perks” which fighters defending Ukraine within its borders are not going to see. Imagine how it must feel for those currently in Kurakhove, Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, everywhere else!

Ukrainian soldiers will receive additional financial rewards for completing combat missions in Russia, Taras Melnychuk, the Ukrainian government’s representative in parliament, announced on Nov. 15.

The update applies primarily to those currently involved in combat in Russia's Kursk Oblast. Kyiv launched the surprise offensive into Kursk in August, and while Russian forces have recaptured about half of the territory initially lost, fighting continues.

The Cabinet of Ministers has amended two resolutions regarding payments to military personnel, extending the regulations to include troops serving on Russian territory, according to Melnychuk.

Ukrainian military personnel operating in Russia during martial law will receive an additional monthly payment of 100,000 hryvnias ($2,400), proportional to the time spent on combat missions there. They will also receive a lump sum payment of 70,000 hryvnias ($1,700) for every 30 days of combat, cumulatively calculated.

Ukrainian military fighting in Russia to receive additional financial rewards

The update applies primarily to those currently involved in combat in Russia's Kursk Oblast.

kyivindependent.com

Situation in Chasiv Yar may have deteriorated rather quickly.



This is from yesterday and not yet factual. My understanding is it may look something like this:



Source is indicated on the image above. It remains to be seen whether this is confirmed by others. The source above claims that the reports of the Russian advances have been coming for a couple of weeks and now we have the visual and geo confirmations. While I have seen some reports, I wouldn’t take this as a given before there is confirmation from more trustworthy sources.


What is happening in Toretsk? It appears that the Russians are advancing in one part, Ukrainians are reported to be advancing in another. Yet, it appears that the advancing Ukrainians are going to get themselves in the usual surrounding situation, voluntarily this time, no? Yet again, not everyone is reporting these Ukrainian advances either. Maybe @Feanor can add some clarity? Anyone else?


While I wrote this post, perhaps, one of the most massive missile attacks on Ukraine took place. Multiple explosions were reported in Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, Rovne, Dnipro, etc. All over the country, basically. We will see what is reported tomorrow. I am assuming severe damage to the energy infrastructure is going to be a big part of it.

Edit: A preliminary report by the Ukrainian official portal regarding the attack:



Is there a type of missile that hasn’t been used? I think Russia used (or Ukraine reported) them all.

 

[KipPotapych]

Couple more things I wanted to post a while back, but forgot.

Russians using petit e-bikes/mopeds for moving around. One says that they should keep the distance (the cameraman replies that there shouldn’t be any issues where they are):

Exilenova+

вторая армия моторизируется ,,, на али-экспресс золотые дни ,,, теперь подразделение клоунов на самокатах ,,, ждём акробатические трюки при подрывах и мальчиков на моно-колесах

t.me

Who says Niva is a shit-vehicle?! I have never seen anything like this:

Exilenova+

Обстановка на дороге.

t.me

This is from yesterday (the night prior to this new attack): air defense in Odesa working against Shaheds, some ground explosions are visible.

x.com

x.com

Same video (and a few more) Telegram; small arms can be heard firing as well:

Повёрнутые на войне

Одесса вчера вечером во время массированного налета дронов «Герань»

t.me

 

[rsemmes]

Fredled said:
For how long Russia will be able to regenerate their forces?
How long before inflation starts to hit the fan?
How long before Russians learn the truth about Russian casulaities


It should not go without saying when Ukrainians are voting with their feet and deserting (smart, you call them). The Ukrainian government may take a decision and the Ukrainians a different one, something that it is not happening in Russia.
The huge difference is that it's already happening in Ukraine, trying to reach an 85%, not a 100%.

You contradict yourself again. There is an issue with inflation in Ukraine, a country that is living on foreign financial aid, but that is all good. Russia is going to have a problem, Ukraine will not have a problem.
Again, why a country living on foreign aid is not going to have economic problems, including inflation, sooner than Russia?
You just have to take for granted increasing foreign aid... Forever.

They know that they have suffered exactly 31.000 dead, because Zelensky told them. You were talking about casualties.

And no, I don't believe you, I don't think Zelensky is the only one delusional; or someone is purposely misleading.


Coming back to reality, Kalibrated has Russian troops (holding an area, not a patrol) in the _NE_ suburbs of Kupiansk; Deepstate confirms the advance, but do we know anything confirmed by both sides yet?

 

[rsemmes]

WASHINGTON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two U.S. officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday, in a significant reversal of Washington's policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

I cannot paste the link but it seems to came from the NYT.
"...for limited strikes, according to two U.S. officials" Some media forget that part.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Apparently, Joe Biden, along with France and the UK have authorized the use of long-range weapons strikes deep within Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/biden-authorizes-ukraine-missiles-russian-targets/index.html

Joe Biden autorise l’Ukraine à frapper la Russie en profondeur avec des armes américaines

Keep in mind what Putin said on the issue recently. The question is, will Russia just take it? An asymmetrical response? Or something more direct. Depending on the severity of the strikes, I personally don't think they'll just sit by and take it till Trump arrives at the White House.

 

[Fredled]

Russian troops in a grouping of fair size are being hit by GMLRS.

Here is the video released by Ukrinform (maybe the same but I couldn't open it in your link).
Note that at the beginning of the video, they show a missile missing its target. It's interesting that they show how they miss their targets, but ok. Then we see several attacks where the result is unclear, and the cluster ammunition Himars strike at the very end.

Reactions to the post and comments do show how sick the societies are. People actually enjoy seeing this stuff. I am assuming none of these people have been in a trench like that or anywhere near the frontline. Some are from far away places on other continents expressing their overwhelming happiness. Pretty sick stuff, in my opinion.

To the contrary, I think that soldiers who have been on the front line and see how Russians are killing their comrades, how the Russians drop FAB bombs, thermobaric bombs, fire missiles at cities where their relatives live are not going to be emotive when seeing one of these Russians hanging himself.
Of course, it's terrible. This poor man was in state of despair, probably under stress for several days or weeks with no end in sight. The bomblet that missed him was the straw on the camel back. He couldn;t stand it anymore.
Yet, for Ukrainian soldiers on the front line, Russians soldiers who are paid to invade their country and to kill them, but ended up hanging themselves is good news. Hence the cheers.

The same way as they cheered when the cluster amunition HIMARS hit the troop concentration on the other video.

This is completely insane, in my opinion, but the Ukrainian troops fighting in Russia will receive extra bonuses and other “perks”

I don't think it's insane. Fighting in Kursk is probably significantly more dangerous than on the Donbas front. Some Ukrainian soldiers have been isolated from the rear or encircled by Russians.
It gives an incentive to held the position there. If they retreat to Ukraine, they will lose their bonus.

They are not doing the same in the Donbas because there, on the contrary, they allow soldiers to withdraw from their positions if they risk encirclement or being killed. They are not going to give incentive that would put the life of soldiers at risk.

That's how I interpretate the event.

Situation in Chasiv Yar may have deteriorated rather quickly.

Russians tried to storm Chasiv Yar constantly for 3 or 4 months. Recently, they have crossed the canal and advanced a few hundred meters into the city/village.
Chasiv Yar will eventually fall. But I wouldn't say that it happened quickly.

What is happening in Toretsk? It appears that the Russians are advancing in one part, Ukrainians are reported to be advancing in another.

Russians advanced in one part and Ukrainians made a counter attack somewhere else. Saying that they are advancing is not 100% exact. They counter attacked Russians forces (or made a pre-emptive attack on them). Wheher they will recover or held a new position is not clear at the moment and very unlikely.

Coming back to reality, Kalibrated has Russian troops (holding an area, not a patrol) in the southern suburbs of Kupiansk; Deepstate confirms the advance, but do we know anything confirmed by both sides yet?

As of yesterday, Russians made a incursion from the north east of Kupiansk and reached the city. The attack was repelled but it's still unclear how close to or how deep inside Kupiansk Russians hold firm positions after this attack.
Let's see tomorrow how it unfolded.
_____________________

While I wrote this post, perhaps, one of the most massive missile attacks on Ukraine took place.

It looks like they hit all parts of Ukraine:
Mykolaiv
Kyiv’s Pechersk district
Lviv
Rivne
Kryvyi Rih
Mykolaiv
Dniprovskyi district (Kherson)
Zaporizhzhia
Vinnytsia
Odesa
Dnipropetrovsk region
Hlushkivka (Kupiansk district)
Nikopol
Sumy

As a result, blackouts are planned.
And serious damage on equipment at thermal power plants are reported.

Rescuers removed with a crane part of an enemy missile from an apartment building in Kyiv.

Today, our F-16 pilots shot down approximately 10 aerial targets.

link

Report from the Ukrainian air defence forces.

No-one will stop Putin with phone calls.

Spot on.
_____________________________
One the same day/night, Ukes UAVs attacked the Izhevsk Kupol Electromechanical Plant in Russia.

This is a producer of Tor anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as radars and certain components.

____________________________

Apparently, Joe Biden, along with France and the UK have authorized the use of long-range weapons strikes deep within Russia.

France and UK already allowed them a long time ago, but they also needed the authorization from the US.
Apparently, Biden sees little risk for doing so as his political career ends in a few weeks.
I don;t think Trump will undo this decision. It could have been even decided with him, who knows?.
Note that we are talking about only 300 km deep at the maximum range, in practice, 200 or 250 km as the Ukrainians won't place ATACMS launchers right on the front line, but at least 50km from it.
Excellent news nonetheless.

 

[Fredled]

Again, why a country living on foreign aid is not going to have economic problems, including inflation, sooner than Russia?

I explained but I will develop further.
Ukraine recieve aid in EUR and in USD. Inflation in Ukraine is caused by the effect of the war which increase cost of logistic and transportation, cost of insurance for the freight, cost of energy, and many other things caused by Russian attacks and resources allocated to the military.
It's also caused by foreign money coming with the aid. As some people have more money, they are able to pay more. But this is rather good for the economy and doesn't cause grave inflation.
These two effects together can cause a more important inflation.

Why it's not as bad as in Russia? Because all the money entering Ukraine is EUR and USD. So the economy is based on these two currencies, thought more on the EUR than on the USD because of trade with the EU
and geography, It means that the Hirvina is supported by these two currencies.

Secondly, there is a strong incentive for the Ukrainian government to stabilise the Hirvinia to attract investors and to look credible in EU accession talks,

In Russia, the Rouble is not supported by the USD and EUR anymore, as these two currencies don't enter the country in large enough quantities. So the Rouble is entirely dependent on the speed of money printing. At the very best, one can argue that the Rouble is supported by Yuans and Rupees... But it's obviousely not the same.

Secondly, There is no incentive, unlike in Ukraine, to limit currency debasement. Putin is willing to take any action to hire more soldiers, no matter the economic consequences, as if there were no tomorrow.
If the value of the Rouble decreases, pays to recruits will cost less in real term. If the Rouble is worth half of the value it had when a recruit signed his contract, it's like they are paying only half of the sum.

The only strong point for the Russian Treasury s their gold reserves. Gold, by its presence in the central bank's vault, can offer a tangible base to the value of the Rouble. Some calculation are still necessary to see how important gold is in support the Rouble. But it will only mitigate the disaster, not stop it.

 

[Ananda]

Russia, the Rouble is not supported by the USD and EUR anymore, as these two currencies don't enter the country in large enough quantities. So the Rouble is entirely dependent on the speed of money printing. At the very best, one can argue that the Rouble is supported by Yuans and Rupees... But it's obviousely not the same.

That's not matter as again Russia don't need USD and Euro much. They don't trade with Western Market, thus no need to have much USD and Euro. Again Rubel need more Gold backing, and under current Russia situation is is much better back by Gold and Oil then USD and Euro.

Your logic that Ukrainian currency and economy that rely on Western hand out is going to be better then Russian one that are relatively have much more solid ground then Ukrainian ones, is simply not add up on any market logic. It is only add up on political what if logic.

 

[seaspear]

Im not sure if "solid ground" is a term that can be used here as per these articles

A somber outlook for the Russian economy – GIS Reports

Amid war and sanctions, Russia’s economy surprises with growth, but Soviet-style defense spending without the necessary exports threatens long-term prospects.

www.gisreportsonline.com

This article examines how economic redistribution may prop up the government

Russia Looks to Economic Redistribution to Shore Up the Regime

In Russia, last year’s exodus of Western companies and Russian entrepreneurs is creating opportunities to entrench the regime, as a wartime redistribution of assets belonging to those who left the country promises to enrich what remains of the middle class and bind it to the state.

carnegieendowment.org

This article goes into several areas effecting sanctions on Russia e.g. falling revenue from gas and oil and falling investments

Russia on track to set new military spending records

Hello! Welcome to your weekly guide to the Russian economy — written by Alexandra Prokopenko and Alexander Kolyandr and brought to you by The Bell. This week, our top story is a deep-dive analysis of the draft budget for the next three years. We also look at why Gazprom’s profitability

en.thebell.io

 

[Ananda]

Compare to Ukranian economy, Russian economies is on better solid ground on any angle. Off course Russian economies are having many problem and hurting toward sanctions. I already shown and talk on this at this thread or Russian thread before. However it is still in much better condition now and future compare to Ukranian ones.

Do remember Ukranian is just as much as corrupt or even more then Russian. Before war it is already corrupt and after war it will be also. It is control by oligrach as much as corrupt as their Russian counterpart.

Potential China own much of Russia economies is smaller then more certainty company like Cargill own much of what's left of Ukranian fertile soils, after the war. Thus on context Ukranian economy will be better off right now and after the war, is just not adding up on any market logic.

 

[seaspear]

These articles comparing corruption around the world provides a significantly better score for Ukraine than Russia with a widening gap

Corruption Index - Countries - List

The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is published annually by Transparency International, a non-governmental organisation. The Corruption Perceptions Index ranks countries by their perceived levels of public sector corruption on a scale from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (not corrupt).

tradingeconomics.com

Corruption Rank by Country

The Corruption Perceptions Index Rank (CPI Ranking) is published annually by Transparency International, a non-governmental organisation. A country or territory's rank indicates its position relative to the other countries and territories in the index.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Ananda]

Russia

Find out more about corruption in Russia: Latest news, Corruption Perceptions Index score & local chapter’s contact information.

www.transparency.org

Ukraine

Find out more about corruption in Ukraine: Latest news, Corruption Perceptions Index score & local chapter’s contact information.

www.transparency.org

Transparency put Russian on #140 and Ukraine #104. Thus both are very corrupt nation, while Russia has better economic base then Ukraine, before the War, during the War, and most likely after the War. The perception of Ukraine only slightly better on corruption index, not going provide any tangible advantage toward Russia on corruption practices.

However those rank on Ukraine corruption suddenly improve during the War by mostly Western corruption watch. Thus quote questionable on whether Ukraine really improve. Western bashing on Russia do seems give some incentive to improve Ukraine ranks.

In 2021, before the War Ukraine 122 in rank now suddenly 104 ? When there's enough talk even in Western media that corruption during the War increasing. Questionable motive indeed.



This is give more balance view on Russian vs Ukraine corruption before the war. Russia score 29 while Ukraine score 32. Not difference much between both of them. Now, frank speaking Ukraine rank is questionable as there's incentive from West to picture Ukraine as improve management.

 

[swerve]

Transparency International isn't a government body. Among the founders were Nigerians, a Bangladeshi, a Kenyan, & a Filipina.

"The West" is not a monolithic whole, living by groupthink. Look at Trump & his lot. Most westerners outside the USA view Trump's reelection with horror. Unless you can cite reasons for distrusting Transparency International's assessments, other than that it's in "the West" I don't think that your claim that the change in Ukraine's ranking is questionable is supported by evidence.

There's a perfectly good explanation for the reported decline in corruption in Ukraine: the war. It's become much easier to unmask & punish corruption. It's much riskier than pre-war. And even corrupt people can be patriotic.

 

[Ananda]

Transparency International's assessments, other than that it's in "the West" I don't think that your claim that the change in Ukraine's ranking is questionable is supported by evidence.

Transparency assessment ranking based mostly on those who doing business in particular country. Russian ranking before war being taken by mostly International business that doing business in Russia. Those business many don't do business in Russia anymore, and still being ask to ranked Russia.

While Ukrainian ranking that suddenly increase during the War, when most normal businesses is not conducted, also raise questionable assessment. Point is those two countries are in war, and ranking perception base only on method being conducted during normal business era, is questionable can provide fair ranking on war era. This is for both nation.

For that I put 2021 ranking as more balance assessment for respective corruption assessment on both nation.

 

[seaspear]

One major influence on the Ukraine government to tackle corruption has been its application for E.U membership this article goes into those measures and its impact on fighting corruption

Ukraine tackles corruption in bid to join EU for a more stable future

Ukraine's recent push to tackle corruption is part of a decade-long battle that only accelerated after Russia’s full-scale invasion and its formal application to join the European Union.

www.euronews.com