The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[John Fedup]

That would be against the will of American people.

Trump won for several reasons, mostly domestic issues. I really doubt a significant majority of Americans favour rewarding Putin with a total ban on support for Ukraine. If they do it is a green light for Xi to invade Taiwan. Better get use to expensive and hard to find electronics if this happens.

 

[koxinga]

Well, support takes many forms and have varying degrees of depth. But what is clear is unconditional support is out of the window.

The question is what sort of conditions or strings would Trump impose, ostensibly to get his diplomatic "win" of ending the war.

 

[John Fedup]

Well, support takes many forms and have varying degrees of depth. But what is clear is unconditional support is out of the window.

The question is what sort of conditions or strings would Trump impose, ostensibly to get his diplomatic "win" of ending the war.

Whatever win Trump has in mind, you can bet the Russians will be happier than the Ukrainians.

 

[Feanor]

The dam just got blown near Kurakhovo, flooding the river Volch'ya downstream, and potentially wrecking Ukrainian logistics. On one level this makes it impossible to cut off Kurakhovo from the north since the area will be flooded. On the other hand it leaves only one real road westward, through Konstantinopol'. Both sides are blaming each other but I suspect Russia will benefit more and is therefore likelier to have done it. Though we can't rule out a move of desperation on Ukraine's part. Russian forces did break into Sontsovka, meaning they're one village over from the western outskirts of Kurakhovo. The fall of Starie Terny with the dam intact would be a deadly threat to Ukrainian forces in Kurakhovo. Either way the battle for Kurakhovo is approaching the critical juncture.

EDIT; Russian forces have broken through to Dal'nee, threatening Ukrainian forces at Uspenovka from the northern flank. Russian forces have advanced into Kurakhovo itself. This looks like it a Ukrainian retreat, and given the timing, they're pulling back right after the dam was blown, it might be that Ukraine blew the dam to protect their northern flank and is now pulling out of the Kurakhovo area.

 

[Fredled]

LOL: German too, remove tanks from museums to train Ukrainian soldiers.
The logic behind this is that if you want to adapt training to the real situation, and the real situation is that Russian are bringing antiquities on the battlefield, then you should train new recruits on similarly old stuff.
However, the article doesn't say that the tanks are WW2 era. It's possible that tanks in German musuems, regarded as relique of the Soviet past, are newer that those used in Ukraine by the Russians.
______________________

The dam just got blown near Kurakhovo, flooding the river Volch'ya downstream, and potentially wrecking Ukrainian logistics.

The Russians damaged the Kurakhove Reservoir dam. This strike potentially threatens residents of settlements along the Vovcha River, both in the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions. As of 16:00, the water level in the river within the Velyka Novosilka community has risen by 1.2 meters. There have been no reports of flooded homes so far

link
The Kurakhove dam is not the Kokhovka dam. Even if the names sounds similar, the volume is much much lower here. The opening is relatively small according to the picture presented. The river rose by 1.2m, which is not worse than a natural seasonal fluctuation. It's unlikely that it disrupted logistik downstream. Or if it did, it was for a short time.
However, IMO, the Russian bombarded the dam because it was used as a bridge to link the two pockets north and south of the reservoir. Not to flood the area, but to cut the link across the river. This will difinitely be an issue for the Ukrainian defence forces.

On the mockup subject, I am not going to look and post any videos now, but I have seen plenty of videos of Russians setting up soldier dummies and even groups of for the Ukrainian FPVs to hit. I also saw at least one video where a Russian soldier was pretending to be one of those dummies and it didn’t end well for him.

At the end of the day, I wonder how efficient any of this is, provided that the number of such drones is measured in the millions per year. Especially the effort it would take to set up a dummy BMP in the area where optic-cable FPVs with their very crisp picture seem to be prevailing.

IMO, if they spend time building mock ups, it's because it works. Russians are ready to spend expensive ammunitions to destroy them.
The other use is that if they are all over the place and the ennemy knows that there could dummies, then they won't know where the real stuff is. He will also not know what is the real quantity.

Ukrainians are making fake howitzers ejecting smoke from their barrel, as if it just fired a shell...

This is an excellent thread with satellite photos about the fortifications in and around Kurakhove (readable to all):

Nice. But I think that these trenches are empty most of the time. One or two thermobaric bomb followed by a few hundreds shells and a swarm of drone, and the defenders could lose several hundred men before the assault starts.
I don't know how they do in reality, but if I were them, I would leave the trench empty until the Storm Z Troopers are close.

10 is a whooping number! Depending on the target, I am assuming enough for one or two potentially good strikes. The reality is that France likely doesn’t have much to give and reportedly not ordering more SCALP missiles neither for Ukraine nor for itself to replenish the stocks.

Yes. That's ridiculous.
The reason is that France is financialy close to bankrupcy. They have an annual deficit of €150B or 6% of GDP and a debt ot €3 Trillon.
It would be very difficult for the French government to increase spending for Ukraine by one billion or more while the population is going to be hit with new taxes and reduced spendings.
Knowing how French politics work, the pronlem is not going to be solved anytime soon.
I think they deliver what they can produced based on the previous year budget, with no increase.

On the good side, the Freanch arm industry is excellent and is not loosing money. It makes sens to invest in the Ukrainian War to develop and improve their products and gain visibility on the market.

Starmer is not welcome in Kiev unless he can promise to supply more Storm Shadow missiles.

There’s no point in his coming as a tourist,

Stormer's shadow is useless, indeed. The situation in the UK is barely better than in France.

That's why there are talks about the US providing Tomahawks. But it's still wishful thinking at the moment.

Trump has spoken to Putin, according to the Washington Post report.

This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, it's just false information. There was no conversation.

This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is being published now, sometimes even in fairly reputable publications

link

I wonder if Musk was on the call as he reportedly was with Zelensky.

He was certainly holding a single ear earphone plugged in the telephone set and listening silently.
Everytime there is a cool thing to happen Musk is there.

But WTF is Musk doing here? Is he the new Power behind the Throne?
Does he wants to be the Master of the World (on top of being immortal and brain enhanced)?

 

[personaldesas]

The reason is that France is financialy close to bankrupcy.

I think this overstates the situation somewhat. Most rating agencies still give France a AA credit rating.

 

[personaldesas]

A Ukrainian military spokesperson told Reuters that Russia was also moving trained assault groups to forward positions in the southern Zaporizhzhia region and that they were preparing to attack...

'(The assaults) could begin in the near future, we're not even talking about weeks, we're expecting it to happen any day,' said Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for the southern military sector.

Although it was not clear if they would involve a single offensive push or separate assaults, intelligence assessed that Moscow's troops planned to use armoured vehicles and a considerable number of drones, he said.

'They are preparing both armoured groups and light vehicles – buggies, motorcycles - to conduct these assault operations,' he added.

Russia has already carried out preliminary reconnaissance and stepped up air strikes in the south by around 30-40% in the last two-three weeks, using bombers and unguided air missiles, he added

Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia Oblast expected 'any day,' military says

"(The assaults) could begin in the near future, we're not even talking about weeks, we're expecting it to happen any day," said Vladyslav Voloshyn, Ukrainian military's Southern Command spokesperson.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Feanor]

LOL: German too, remove tanks from museums to train Ukrainian soldiers.
The logic behind this is that if you want to adapt training to the real situation, and the real situation is that Russian are bringing antiquities on the battlefield, then you should train new recruits on similarly old stuff.
However, the article doesn't say that the tanks are WW2 era. It's possible that tanks in German musuems, regarded as relique of the Soviet past, are newer that those used in Ukraine by the Russians.
______________________



link
The Kurakhove dam is not the Kokhovka dam. Even if the names sounds similar, the volume is much much lower here. The opening is relatively small according to the picture presented. The river rose by 1.2m, which is not worse than a natural seasonal fluctuation. It's unlikely that it disrupted logistik downstream. Or if it did, it was for a short time.
However, IMO, the Russian bombarded the dam because it was used as a bridge to link the two pockets north and south of the reservoir. Not to flood the area, but to cut the link across the river. This will difinitely be an issue for the Ukrainian defence forces.

It appears Ukraine blew the dam to cover their retreat.

Suriyakmaps

Recent video footage shows that the perpetrators of the dam bursting near Stari Terny were Ukrainian troops. This indicates that the Ukrainian situation around Kurakhove is very difficult and will accelerate the withdrawal process in the short term. Meanwhile, Russian forces have taken control...

t.me

IMO, if they spend time building mock ups, it's because it works. Russians are ready to spend expensive ammunitions to destroy them.

Agreed. Both sides use decoys actively and they do work, though Ukraine seems to have the more systematic and thorough effort in this area.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Well, one thing that I think of is the current US administration might rush larger arms packages in the remaining months.

If there is one certain thing with the incoming Trump administration on Ukraine, aid will likely be reduced significantly. This would be even more likely if they control both House and Senate.

Yes, they are, as has been widely reported:

Air & Space Forces Magazine:
Pentagon Plans $6 Billion in Ukraine Aid Ahead of Presidential Change

Reuters:
Biden rushing assistance to Ukraine, with aid uncertain under Trump

This aid was already approved by our Congress, so it's perfectly legit. The amount varies depending on the source (of course I did not list them all), but that appears to have to do with which one of Uncle Sam's pockets it's coming out of, not so much the actual total amount, as best I can tell.

Before I got distracted by hurricanes here, I noticed news reports saying that European aid might not be as robust in 2025, but my recent attempts to look into that question have not been very fruitful, as there has been much bluster and little substance in the wake of our election on this subject. I'll try to go back and read the posts here I missed during my hurricane distraction.

 

[KipPotapych]

Russian source reveal the death of Major General Klimenko, commander of the 5th Motor-Rifles Bde, a former DNR commander.

Военный Осведомитель

На Донбассе погиб командир 5-й отдельной мотострелковой бригады ВС РФ (ранее - батальон «Оплот» НМ ДНР) генерал-майор Павел Клименко. Отметим, что за время командования 5-й омсбр на Клименко поступало большое количество негативных отзывов и жалоб как от самих военнослужащих, так и от их...

t.me

Some interesting details are emerging about the death of this general. Note, this isn’t definitive or 100% correct information. I talked about this Telegram channel previously, I can’t vouch for the validity of the information they present: what can be checked out over time after posting usually checks out; otherwise, it is what it is.

Anyway, they are posting supposedly an official document indicating that he died after an attack of FPV drones on his group that was moving on motorcycles in the Krasnohorivka area. The general received various head trauma and a broken femur. They got hit with FPVs at 19:30 and he passed in a Donetsk hospital at 22:00.

Досье Шпиона

❗️Подробности гибели генерал-майора Клименко. 06.11.2024, в 22:00, от полученных минно-взрывных травм скончался командир 5 отдельной мотострелковой бригады (в/ч 41698, Макеевка) генерал-майор Клименко Павел Юрьевич. Ранее, генерал Клименко вместе с подчиненными, перемещаясь на мотоциклах (!)...

t.me

This info is mostly corroborated by other accounts in the Russian media. All but the motorcycle bit, which is the most interesting.

Что известно о погибшем в зоне СВО генерале Клименко: биография, награды, причина смерти

amp.ura.news

He was awarded the gold star, a Hero of Russia, posthumously. I see that he is also pictured with one of those issued by the DNR, if I am not mistaken.

I believe this is the 8th Russian general killed (that we know of) in this conflict.


In regard to the dam. After a couple of videos posted on the subject, it appears to be fairly clear that it was Ukrainians who planted the explosives and blew up the dam. Interestingly, the Ukrainian media still claim it was the Russians and cite the same videos as evidence. For example:

Video Shows Russian Troops Blowing Up Kurakhove Dam in Donetsk Region

Russian forces targeted the Kurakhove dam after months of attempts, raising water levels by 1.2 meters in the Vovcha River. However, officials report no risk of a complete reservoir leak.

www.kyivpost.com

Note the headline, “Video Shows Russian Troops Blowing Up Kurakhove Dam in Donetsk Region”. Crazy, right? No idea how anyone believes anything coming out of the Ukrainian reports. I would say that they are worse than Russians, really. From the same report:

Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukrainian military intelligence, told Kyiv Post Russia’s actions were “terrorist act, ecocide,” adding: “Last year, Ukrainian military intelligence reported that the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station had been mined by Russian troops, publishing photo, and video evidence.”

It appears that no major (and minor?) flooding actually took place though. The goal was maybe, as Fredled said, to make the dam itself impassible, but for different reasons.

Damaged Kurakhove dam: water keeps flowing, no flooding yet

www.pravda.com.ua

I think this overstates the situation somewhat. Most rating agencies still give France a AA credit rating.

Perhaps, but that shouldn’t stop one from saying that their economy is collapsing? Haha.

Agreed. Both sides use decoys actively and they do work, though Ukraine seems to have the more systematic and thorough effort in this area.

While I agree about the use of decoys in general and Ukraine appears to be much better at it than Russia, I was talking about the particular instance of using BMP decoys in the Kursk region, where most destruction comes from the FPV drones and optical wire drones in particular. I would guess that the cost and effort of constructing that decoy is higher than the cost of the drone that hit it. In other words, there are instances and locations where setting up a decoy is more than justified. I don’t believe this is the case for the Kursk region and a BMP decoy in particular.

Nice. But I think that these trenches are empty most of the time. One or two thermobaric bomb followed by a few hundreds shells and a swarm of drone, and the defenders could lose several hundred men before the assault starts.
I don't know how they do in reality, but if I were them, I would leave the trench empty until the Storm Z Troopers are close.

To occupy the trenches 100% of the time would be silly, even if the manpower situation permitted them doing so. The trenches are empty most of the time and would only be occupied when the situation requires. Artillery shelling would likely not do much damage because, after all, that is what the trenches are for (one of the reasons, anyway). But yes, these are prepared as defensive positions where the infantry moves to when the situation dictates doing so.

Also, you suggest leaving “the trench empty until the Z troopers are close”. The same conditions you mentioned (bombs, artillery, and drones) exist when the “Z troopers are close”. For this reason, there is usually quite a bit of planning goes into the design and construction of these fortifications, accounting for likely enemy advances, directions, etc.


Edit: Regarding the additional aid passing the congress before Trump’s inauguration. The chances of that happening are virtually zero.

A spokesperson for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told HuffPost that the Republican majority had no interest in taking up a Ukraine supplemental soon.

Ukraine’s Hopes Rest On Appealing To Trump’s Dealmaking Instincts

Trump said he’d take peace over a Ukraine victory in its war with Russia and picked a Ukraine skeptic for vice president. What now?

www.huffpost.com

There is simply no way the House would approve or even put anything on the floor for voting before after Trump being sworn in. The current administration will do the best they can to rush in the aid that has been approved for many months now and will likely be largely unsuccessful doing so for the most part for the reasons previously discussed. What happens after is anyone’s guess. All the reports now indicate either that the aid will dry up completely (consistent with Vance’s voiced views) or what the authors and interviewed people think should be done. None have anything to do with what’s actually going to happen. Just pure speculation, most completely baseless. Judging by the appointments that are being reported (almost none of which are a given), they should be panicking in Ukraine, worry greatly in China, worry in Europe, and pat themselves on the backs in Israel. That’s how I see it at this moment.

 

[Fredled]

Interesting pieces of news from Ukrinform:
about 10,000 kilometers of railroad tracks in Ukraine have been damaged, destroyed or lost.
3,600 kilometers of tracks have been partially or fully restored.

It shows that the Russians targeted the railroads intensively. I wonder if the Ukrainians did the same. I almost never see any report from attacks on railroads on the Russian side.

Ukrainians eliminated Valery Trankovsky, chief of staff of the 41st brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet

The United States has delivered to Ukraine:
83% of the promised ammunition,
67% of the pledged air defence systems,
60% of firepower capabilities from its own stockpiles by October.

The Pentagon also clarified that, as of November 12, the U.S. still has the capacity to provide Ukraine with weapons and equipment worth over USD 9 billion.

Ukrainian Colonel developing on the intensity of the fighting operations in the Kursk region.

They are constantly pushing and carrying out strikes on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Kursk region. Specifically, over the past day, they used 50 guided bombs. For comparison, across the broader border area under our control spanning almost 1,000 kilometers, the enemy used 14 guided bombs. We are forcing the enemy to engage in active combat on their own territory

the intensity of enemy shelling with FPV drones in Chernihiv, Sumy, and parts of Kharkiv regions remains high. However, the heaviest concentration of shelling, combat actions, enemy manpower, and equipment is focused in Kursk region, where the Ukrainian Defense Forces are carrying out combat missions and inflicting heavy losses on the invaders. The Russian forces are also constantly replenishing their reserves in this area.

"We are destroying a significant amount of their equipment and manpower, but the enemy continues to send reinforcements. They are deploying them and using 'meat grinder' assault tactics, followed by smaller infantry assault groups.

It's interesting that he uses the word "shelling" in the English translation to describe attacks with FPV drones. This is because the number of single use FPV drome, 5000 per day, is higher than the number of 155 artillery shell from the Ukrainian side, and 1/4 from the Russian side. They have a similar range and make comparable destructions.

And here the spokeswoman for the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade.
The 47th: Ring a bell?

Ukrainian UAV hit an oil depot near the city of Stary Oskol, Belgorod region.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the operation.
_______________________

It appears Ukraine blew the dam to cover their retreat.

The video doesn't show the Ukrainian troops but the blast looks like it's from explosive planted under the bridge. It doesn't look like from aerial projectiles. So it's probably the Ukrainians. It would indicate that the area north of the reservoir is already evacuated.

Of course, the Ukrainian President's press service tries to portray this as one more ecocide perpetrated by the Russians...

I think this overstates the situation somewhat. Most rating agencies still give France a AA credit rating.

Perhaps, but that shouldn’t stop one from saying that their economy is collapsing? Haha.

Please read what I wrote and don't reply stupidities. France have to cut spending and hike taxes by €60B just to bring deficit from 6.1% this year to 5% next year.
If they don't do that, their rating will certainly be downgraded. These are terrible numbers.

In this context, it's very unlikely that France will increase their aid to Ukraine. They will likely keep it as is, because there is no political will to decrease it despite their dire financial situation.

I would guess that the cost and effort of constructing that decoy is higher than the cost of the drone that hit it. In other words, there are instances and locations where setting up a decoy is more than justified. I don’t believe this is the case for the Kursk region and a BMP decoy in particular.

And maybe more expensive than a real BMP. But Russians don;t use only cheap FPV drones to destroy decoys. Sometimes they use Kalibr.

What happens after (Trump's inauguration) is anyone’s guess.

Trump will first try to get them at the negotiation table, then decide what he will give to Ukraine.
I speculate that Trump will ask both side to agree on a border based on the actual front line. Zelensky accepting this is unlikely, but Putin accepting this is even more unlikely. Then the amount of military aid (or Trump's motivation to give it) will depends on how much Zelensky will be ready to give to Russia, while betting that Russia, in any case, will reject the proposal. That will be Zelensky's biggest gamble because if Putin unexpectedly agrees with Zelensky's proposal (admitting it's a generous one), Zelensky will lose both the aid and the territories.
It will be decided on a fine line, in very short time, in January.

There are rumours that Trump would give a line of credit to buy whatever weapon they want from the US. It won't be gifts as it was until now. It's important for Trump that allied countries pay or, at least, understand that their defence has a cost. Ukraine will never be able to pay back one hundred billion dollars, but they will have a debt to the US and eventually pay interests on it. It's at the same time how Trump sees a fair deal and more acceptable for Americans.

 

[Fredled]

Heinrich Torsten confirmed in his last video that the Ukrainians blew up the Kurakhove dam. The funny part is that he started by saying "Russians" then corrected himeself. He doesn;t understand why the Ukrainians did it so early if there are still Ukrainian troops between the reservoir and Kurakhove. It's likely that Ukrainians are preparing for an orderly retreat.

Elsewhere the front has little changed, with small Russian advances here and there in the Donbas and in Kursk.