Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Флаг России развевается над Кругляковкой в Харьковской области ▪️Минобороны вчера заявило о полном освобождении населенного пункта группировкой войск "Запад"; ▪️Российские войска прорываются к Купянску, угрожая взять город в клещи. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Helmet camera footage of Russian SpN assaulting a Ukrainian strong point near Petropavlovka. We get very short clips. One of the soldiers has a VSS variant rifle.

Colonelcassad

Штурм опорника противника от первого лица. Снято на камеру GoPro бойца 16-й бригады спецназа в районе Петропавловки (недалеко от Купянска) Сообщения Безуглой о 2,5 км до Купянска пока несколько опережают события, основные бои идут в лесном массиве к юго-западу от Синьковке и ближе к окраинам...

t.me

Russia is using UAV-dropped munitions to clear Ukrainian mines. Personally I wonder how they know they're there, I certainly can't see them, though the explosion illustrates that they got one.

Colonelcassad

Воздушное разминирование ВОГ-25 против ТМ. Купянский участок фронта. Работают операторы одной из штурмовых рот 1-й танковой армии. @brussinf

t.me

Russian Kub strike on a building near Kupyansk. I suspect this is Petropavlovka. It's questionable how effective the relatively small munition is against a structure.

Военный Осведомитель

Нечасто встречающийся БПЛА "КУБ" поразил здание с личным составом ВСУ в районе Купянска Харьковской области. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian bomb strike on Petropavlovka and strikes on Kupyansk including a bridge strike near Kupyansk-Uzlovoy.

Colonelcassad

Авиаудары по ключевым объектам ВСУ в Купянске Вчера, 24 октября 2024 года, российские войска нанесли несколько авиаударов по объектам ВСУ в Купянске и окрестностях, направленных на разрушение критической инфраструктуры противника и нейтрализацию его командных пунктов на данном направлении...

t.me

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Colonelcassad

Ударом авиации уничтожен пункт временной дислокации 14 омбр в Петропавловке. 49°43'53"N 37°42'08"E 49°43'46"N 37°42'10"E Противник располагался в здании технического назначения и в здании аграрного типа. Из строя выведено до 20 боевиков и четыре единицы техники. @ukrainian_guide

t.me

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Russian T-90A doing indirect fires near Kupyansk. We don't see the type often. It's not known if Russia is remanufacturing T-90As into T-90Ms like they did with older T-90 variants from the '90s.

Colonelcassad

Экипаж танка Т-90А группировки войск «Запад» огнем с закрытой огневой позиции уничтожил опорный пункт ВСУ на Купянском направлении. @mod_russia

t.me

An up-armored BM-27 on the Kupyansk area.

Военный Осведомитель

Экранированная РСЗО 9К57 «Ураган» группировки войск «Запад» на Купянском направлении. Военный Осведомитель

⚔️Армия России ворвалась в Терны, активно взламывая один из главных центров обороны ВСУ ▪️ На Краснолиманском направлении 20 гвардейская армия зашла в посёлок Терны, долгое время являвшийся одним из главных центров обороны ВСУ на этом участке. ▪️Артиллерия, авиация, штурмовики смоленской...

t.me

Ukrainian T-64 in the Liman area takes up positions to fire but gets spooked by a Russian drone and artillery near-miss.

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Russian FPV drone strike hits a Ukrainian tank and causes the ammo to cook off.

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Russian forces take out an M113 in Toretsk.

Colonelcassad

Забой западной техники в Торецке продолжается - на этот раз «Ястребы» уничтожили вражеский М113 @zparabellummd

t.me

Ukrainian forces blowing up a multi-story building after retreating in Toretsk, reminiscent of fighting in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Отступая, противник подрывает многоэтажку в Торецке. 48.399113, 37.874452 - тут. @divannyevoini

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ВСУ начали подрывать многоэтажки в Торецке при отходе в Крымское ▪️ Украинские военные подорвали крайние высотные дома в Дзержинске (Торецке), чтобы замедлить продвижение сил группировки войск "Центр". ▪️Ранее такую тактику ВСУ использовали в Артёмовске (Бахмуте) перед сдачей города...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Кадры подрыва противником многоэтажного дома в Торецке перед своим отступлением. Ранее аналогичную тактику ВСУ применяли в Бахмуте перед падением города. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian forces evacuating civilians from Novgorodskoe. While the village is firmly in Russian hands, it's very much on the front lines still.

Colonelcassad

Эвакуация мирных жителей из Новгородского Силами 56-го отдельного батальона специального назначения 51 гвардейской армии ВС РФ из Новгородского были успешно эвакуированы мирные жители, несмотря на попытки обстрела эвакуационного транспорта со стороны боевиков ВСУ. Эта операция демонстрирует...

t.me

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A video of a Russian "platoon" assaulting a Ukrainian position. I put the platoon in quotations because it appears to be the composite assault platoon that Russian forces use. Two vehicles drop off infantry, likely 12 (two "squads" of 6). They then assault a Ukrainian strong-point in the tree line. The descrition credits some of the explosions to Russian FPV drones doing a sort of CAS.

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Ukrainian soldiers allegedly from the 15th National Guard Bde are retreating from Pokrovsk firing into the tree-line. Interestingly enough their armored vehicle doesn't have a machinegun in the turret. I've often seen knocked out Ukrainian vehicles without a weapon in the turret and always assumed the crew took it when they bailed out but I'm now wondering how many never had one to begin with.

Dambiev

Боевики украинской 15 бригады оперативного назначения НГУ "Кара-Даг" снимают на видео свое бегство из н.п. Селидово.

t.me

And another video of Ukrainian troops leaving selidovo in I think a Kirpi MRAP. These aren't firing anywhere and we get an interesting view from the infantry-man providing security for the squad as they pack up and leave.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠Боевики ВСУ показали фрагменты боёв за Селидово ▪️Кадры сняты в частном секторе города в последние недели, штурмовики "Кара Даг" НГУ ведут стрельбу непонятно куда и регулярно спрашивают - рядом ли русские? ▪️Бригада Нацгвардии была недавно экстренно переброшена, чтобы приостановить прорыв...

t.me

And here we have a knocked out Roshel Senator, quite possibly trying to do the same as above, evacuate personnel out of Selidovo.

Военный Осведомитель

А это уже пример гораздо менее удачливых украинских нацгвардейцев, решивших проскочить на своем Roshel Senator сквозь позиции ВС РФ в Селидово по опыту своих побратимов. На этот раз не получилось, броневик встретили в лоб чем-то крупнокалиберным, а водитель напоследок сломал сарай. Видео...

t.me

Another evacuation attempt out of Selidovo in either an armored car or MRAP. It gets hit by something or runs over a mine, unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ «️тважные» штурмуют Селидово, уничтожая бронетехнику и боевиков ВСУ Бойцы группировки "Центр" активно продвигаются, в городских боях за Селидово уничтожая оккупантов на Покровском направлении. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

We have a Kozak-7 from the 15th National Guard Bde likely also escaping Selidovo, under fire. This one has something in the turret as we can see the shell casings fall forward.

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Бои в Селидово, боевики ВСУ несутся под огнём «️тважных» Бронеавтомобиль ВСУ едет по улицам под огнём штурмующих город бойцов группировки «Центр». t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian forces capture a knocked out YPR-765 near Pokrovsk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Штурмовики «️тважных» захватили НАТОвскую БМП ▪️Штурмовики танкового полка группировки войск «Центр», выполняющие боевые задачи на Красноармейском направлении, подбили и захватили голландскую боевую машину пехоты YPR-765. ▪️Как и остальная трофейная техника, боевую машину эвакуируют в тыловой...

t.me

Ukrainian CV90 hits a landmine, Pokrovsk area. I'm having a hard time making out the exact vehicle, though it looks plausible.

Colonelcassad

Еще одна шведская БМП CV-90 минус. Наехала на противотанковую мину на Красноармейском направлении.

t.me

Russia takes out a VAB near Pokrovsk.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтожение FPV-дроном бронетраспортера VAB ВСУ с антидроновой защитой на Покровском направлении. Кадры: @sudoplatov_official Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian wire-guided drone hitting an immobilized Bradley in the Pokrovsk area.

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Военный Осведомитель

Захваченный на Покровском направлении M1A1 SA Abrams 47-ой мехбригады ВСУ, облепленный ДЗ "Контакт-1" и BRAT, а также решетками на башне. Кадры: @btr80 Танк получил попадание в левую скулу башни. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A captured Roshel Senator in Selidovo. The vehicle looks intact. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

Селидовские трофеи. Наши бойцы захватили еще один канадский МРАП "Рошель Сенатор". Практически целый.

t.me

Dambiev

Уничтоженный украинский боевик в подбитом бронеавтомобиле Roshel Senator MRAP канадского производства. Селидово. ДНР.

t.me

Ukrainian POW out of Selidovo and a couple of Ukrainian POWs from the 157th Infantry Bde.

Центр освобожденной Новогродовки. Разрушения умеренные.

⚔️ Армия России провала оборону врага и начала штурм города Курахово! - кадры боёв и подвига ▪️Бойцы 51 армии ЮВО взяли несколько мощных опорников ВСУ и атакуют восточные окраины при поддержке бронетехники и артиллерии. ▪️Идут ожесточённые бои, боевики 46 бригады пытаются остановить продвижение...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Город Горняк на Кураховском направлении перешел под контроль ВС РФ, 114-я мотострелковая бригада публикует кадры со знаменем в центре города. Ранее 114-я ОМСБр взяла Измайловку, тем самым оставив противнику единственный путь к отступлению через терриконы соседних шахт, чем, судя по всему, ВСУ...

t.me

A Ukrainian unit has shown up in the Kurakhovo area riding BvS 10 transports. 3 were hit recently all in the same area.

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Ukrainian Leo-1 gets hit by a Lancet.

Colonelcassad

Хохло-леопард приуныл после того как повстречался с нашим ланцетом где то в районе Курахово. Как тут не приуныть, когда навороченную натовскую игрушку за миллиард рублей с легкостью разделал наш "Ланцет", который в триста раз дешевле) @IronHelmets

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Allegedly Ukrainian forces retreating from Izmailovka.

Dambiev

Массовое бегство ВСУ из Измайловки Боевики ВСУ, под ударами штурмовых подразделений 51 гвардейской армии, бросили свои позиции в н.п. Измайловка и обратились в бегство. Подобные случаи подчёркивают растущее напряжение среди противника и эффективность действий российских войск. (с) Народная...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Бегство ВСУ из Измайловки. Видео https://t.me/nm_dnr/12890

t.me

Russian soldiers show off an impressive under-ground shelter for allegedly Ukrainian UAV operators in the Kurakhovo area. This is definitely not an improvised construction.

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Russian forces show 2 knocked out Kirpis in Ukrainsk and a third nearby.

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Военный Осведомитель

Два «потрепанных» бойцами группировки «Центр» турецких бронеавтомобиля BMC Kirpi ВСУ, в районе Украинска. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Брошенный очередной турецкий бронеавтомобиль BMC Kirpi ВСУ в районе Украинска. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A Ukrainian Kirpi and MaxxPro with drone cages in the Kurakhovo area.

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West of Pobeda Russian Krasnopol' strike on what appears to be a knocked out Leo-2A4. The tank burns.

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11 гвардейская армия ВВС и ПВО бодрит ФАБами тыловых хлопчиков в районе населённого пункта Разлив (47.971964 37.006145) @voin_dv

t.me

An interesting story has shown up. Allegedly a Russian agent with US citizenship named Daniel Martindale managed to infiltrate the Ukraine and passed along information for two years. He specifically provied information that helped plan the assault on Bogoyavlenka, suggesting he had connections in the Ukrainian military. Russia's 36th MRBde together with Russian intelligence services evacuated him presumably prior to the assault. He is now speaking to the media and generally supporting Russia.

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Военный Осведомитель

Удары FPV-дронами "ВТ-40" по электроподстанциям на Херсонском направлении. @sudoplatov_official

t.me

Black Sea.

Russian helicopter hunts Ukrainian unmanned boats. Note it carries R-73 missiles.

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Colonelcassad

Объективный контроль поражения БЭКа противника с авиационного пулемета ГШГ, после очередного прохода над ним вертолёта. Где-то в Черном море.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Охота Ка-29 Черноморского флота за украинским зенитным БЭК с установленными ракетами Р-73 с тепловым наведением. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia launching Zala and Lancet UAVs from a boat using a catapult.

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Russia continues to operate the re-armed captured Gyurza-M armored boat.

Военный Осведомитель

Артиллерийский катер «Разбойник» проекта 58155 «Гюрза-М» ЧФ на дежурстве у входа в Севастопольскую бухту, Севастополь. Наши дни. Фото: @kchf_ru Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Утренний Киев. Кадры полёта на малой высоте одного из дронов-камикадзе «Герань-2», кадры с мест попадания и работа украинской ПВО. На последнем видео результат падения обломков сбитой «Герани», о чём сообщают украинские каналы. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A Russian strike in Kiev missed a Patriot TEL in the Zhulyany airport. There are 11 TELs and 5 empty positions.

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Russian strikes landing in Odessa. Reportedly in one strike Russia used two Iskanders and 5 Kh-59/69s. One of the strikes was aimed at the rail bridge at Zatoka, yet again. Another was aimed at rail storage facilities.

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Военный Осведомитель

Момент прилета ракеты, предположительно, с кассетной боевой частью по цели в Одессе. На месте удара возник пожар. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

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Russia hit the Mirgorod airbase, home to the 831st Brigade. No BDA available.

Colonelcassad

Точный удар по аэродрому «Миргород»: Уничтожение техники и тренировочной инфраструктуры противника Сегодня, 25 октября 2024 года, около 10:00, российскими войсками нанесён очередной удар по военному аэродрому «Миргород» в Полтавской области, применив ракетный комплекс «Искандер-М». Этот...

t.me

‼️Враг атаковал ТЭК в Башкирии ▪️«Первый БПЛА упал на территории одного из предприятий и причинил минимальный ущерб в виде выбитых стекол в операторской. Два других упали в промзоне. Жертв и разрушений нет. Предприятия функционируют в штатном режиме. На месте работают следственная группа...

t.me

Ukrainian drones hit allegedly civilian targets in Berdyansk. On the wings of one of the drones was the slogan "Berdyansk is Ukraine or ruins". Reportedly three civilians were wounded and 6 buildings damaged.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️"Бердянск — это Украина, или руины": нацисты ВСУ атакуют город в Запорожской области ▪️Атака была против именно мирных граждан. На обломках одного из украинских БПЛА боевики ВСУ нацарапали на украинском, что "Бердянск — это Украина, или руины". ▪️ВСУ нанесли удары по городу дважды...

t.me

A Ukrainian drone hit a multi-story residential building in Bryansk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Враг атаковал многоэтажку в Брянске Пострадал один человек. Всего над областью уничтожено 4 БПЛА, сообщил губернатор. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukraine hit an alcohol distillery in Voronezh and another unnamed industrial object. Reportedly 10 drones were downed, no word on how many hit their targets.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг атаковал спиртзавод в Воронежской области ▪️Около 10 дронов сбито силами ПВО и подавлено РЭБ, — заявляет губернаторр. СМИ публикуют видео. ▪️На данный момент в Воронежской области силами ПВО и РЭБ сбито и подавлено около 10 БПЛА. ▪️По предварительным данным, пострадавших нет...

t.me

Ukraine hit the "SpetNaz University" in Gudermes, a training facility used by Chechen security forces. Note it's not affiliated with the GRU Spetznaz.

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Colonelcassad

В Чечне беспилотник прилетел в крышу постройки на территории "Русского университета спецназа". Кадыров сообщил, что здание было пустым, пострадавших и серьезного ущерба нет. Работа объекта продолжается в обычным режиме.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

The rate of Russian strikes seems to have hit a new high. In September Shahed strikes occurred every day, with an average of 44 per day, for October the number is 65 per day on average. Almost 7 000 Shahed strikes have occurred since the start of the year.

Dambiev

В сентябре выяснилось, что БПЛА "Герань" запускались по целям на Украине каждый день, а по результатам октября был побит абсолютный рекорд по пускам - 2023 единицы (в среднем 65 в сутки против 44 месяцем ранее и всего 6987 с начала года). Как видно на инфографике, составленной проукраинскими...

t.me

Thermobaric Shahed variants continue to appear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠ Эти дроны гарантированно уничтожат всё в закрытом помещении: русские начали запускать по целям на Украине термобарические "Шахеды", — КНИИСЭ ▪️Панику подняли эксперты Киевского НИИ судебных экспертиз. ▪️Термобарическая боевая часть не уничтожит все стены в моменте, но внутри помещений...

t.me

Feanor · Sunday at 1:44 PM

Interesting bits.

Ukrainian forces captured an interesting T-90S tank shed. The T-90S is the export version, a limited number were repurposed for Russian service.

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Военный Осведомитель

Противник захватил редкий экспортный Т-90С в характерной «индийской» комплектации. Танк был закован в антидроновый козырек, оснащен системами РЭБ и дополнительными камерами для обзора. Аналогичный Т-90С в составе ЧВК "Вагнер" брал штурмом ворота штаба ЮВО в Ростове-на-Дону. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

There are reports of Ukraine losing a Mi-24PU1, with the crew surviving.

Военный Осведомитель

Противник неделю назад потерял Ми-24ПУ1. К сожалению, экипаж хоть и побитый, но живой. Из интересного. Продолжается ремонт авиатехники на АРЗ. Город Конотоп, где расположен завод Авиакон. От нашего Курчатова, который у всех на слуху, до Конотопа 110км. Почему завод не посещают...

t.me

An interesting video of a Ka-52M launching a Kh-39 missile.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Министерство обороны России показало кадры запуска многоцелевой управляемой ракеты Х-39 ЛМУР («Изделие 305») c внешней подвески АПУ-305 вертолета Ка-52М. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukrainian SB-600 takes out a Russian Tor-M2, the crew bails out and apparently survives.

Военный Осведомитель

Необычный «апгрейд». Т-80БВК (ВС РФ) с ДЗ Контакт-5 на башне от Т-90А. На бортах экраны отжатые у БМП-шников с дополнительно установленной на них ДЗ.

t.me

A rare Russian BREM-L. A small quantity of these were produced pre-war. However this one might be a war-time delivery. The extra-armor kit it carries is the same as the BMP-3M, and the normal BMP-3 hull doesn't carry mounting points for it. BMP-3Ms with mounting points for this armor only showed up in iirc 2020. I'm not aware of any pre-war BREM-L deliveries with those attachment points, suggesting the type is in production.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Довольно редкое изображение БРЭМ-Л «Беглянка» с навесной разнесенной броней 688А-сб6-2КП и антидроновой сеткой мангалом по кругу. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A converted T-62 to either serve as a mineclearing vehicle or an H-APC with a minetrawl, unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Инженерная НЕХ

Народ находится в недоумении.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Хохлы не особо верят в потужность Покровска. Начали рыть уже вокруг Днепропетровска.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Противник строит укрепления в районе Днепропетровска. Заранее. Стоит отметить что полноценные сухопутные боевые действия на территории Днепропетровской области в ходе СВО не велись. Пока что.

t.me

An interesting look at a Ukrainian under-ground hospital that can handle 100 wounded per day. It was built with privately provided funds.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Leo-2A5 with K-1 and a drone-cage.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Strv 122 з ДЗ «Контакт-1» на бортах і складаною сіткою в розпорядженні Сил Оборони. cred

t.me

The L'vov Aircraft Repair Plant hands over an overhauled MiG-29.

Военный Осведомитель

Еще не покрашенный МиГ-29 ВВС противника, после капитального ремонта на Львовском АРЗ.

t.me

Ukrainian F-16 over Dnepropetrovsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A nice photo of a Ukrainian Su-24M with a pair of SCALP-EGs.

Военный Осведомитель

Бомбардировщик Су-24М ВВС Украины с двумя подвешенными ракетами Storm Shadow (SCALP-EG) на одном из аэродромов. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

More footage of Ukraine's 33rd Mech training with Leo-1s.

Военный Осведомитель

Танки Leopard 2A4 с ДЗ «Контакт-1» 33-й ОМБр ВСУ на одном из полигонов. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Swedish PBV 302s have arrived in Ukraine. The quantity is unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Перша поява шведських БТР PBV 302 на озброєнні ЗСУ. Також можна побачити заряджання боєприпасів в магазин для 20-мм гармати Hispano HS-804. Джерело, Дякуємо за надісланий контент підписнику, наш бот - @NMFTEbot

t.me

Dambiev

Первые кадры с полученными ВСУ старыми шведскими гусеничными бронетранспортёрами Pbv 302

t.me

Ukrainian GBU-39s being unpacked.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

An interesting Ukrainian Varta-2 armord car with a Sich autocannon module.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine's 17th Tanks and 117th Mech are being reformatted into the 17th Heavy Mech Bde, presumably mirroring the US norm of two tank btlns and two mech btlns in IFVs. There are reports of a new 162nd Mech Bde.

bmpd

Украинские ресурсы сообщают, что 17-я отдельная танковая Криворожская бригада ВСУ переформирована в 17-ю отдельную тяжелую механизированную бригаду, став первым таким соединением в украинской армии. Также сообщается, что еще летом на Украине была сформирована новая 7-я бригада специальных...

t.me

bmpd

Сообщают, что в составе ВСУ вслед за 17-й отдельной тяжелой механизированной бригадой статус "тяжелой" получила также 117-я отдельная механизированная бригада (официальное фото). Также украинские источники сообщают о формировании новой 162-й механизированной бригады (не тяжелой)

t.me

A new Ukrainian brigade, the 155th Mech, is being trained in France. The unit will reportedly get French kit, namely VABs and Caeasr howitzers, and AMX-10RCs.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Ещё кадры из Франции, подготовка военнослужащих 155-й общевойсковой бригады украинских сухопутных войск Anne de Kyiv, изучение колёсных танков AMX-10RC. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Croatia will reportedly hand over 30 M-84 MBTs and 30 M-80 IFVs. In exchange they will get a discount on some purchases they are making.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4869892.html

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Из-за критического недостатка личного состава, руководство ВСУ переводят в пехоту медиков, аэродромную обслугу, артиллерийские расчеты и даже из состава ЗРК Patriot, пишет известная украинская депутатша Марьяна Безуглая. По словам Безуглой, из-за несправедливого распределения боеприпасов...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️☠️Генштаб ВСУ распорядился перевести 1/5 медиков из военных госпиталей в пехотные бригады, — Безуглая ▪️"И так у нас есть проблемы с качеством и объемом медицинской помощи в системе Командования медицинских сил и Главком решил создать коллапс и там? Александр Станиславович, Вам проблем в...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Из-за огромных потерь: Экс-спикер Воздушных сил ВСУ заявил, что сейчас сбивают меньше "шахедов", потому что из частей ПВО и не только МНОГИХ направляют в пехоту ▪️Юрий Игнат подтвердил информацию экс-замглавы оборонного комитета Рады Марьяны Безуглой. ▪️"Да, подтверждаю, направляют! Не от...

t.me

Another prisoner exchange took place, 30 for 30. Reportedly it took place in Kursk region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Сообщается о прошедшем в Курской области обмене военнопленными по формуле 30 на 30. Кадры: @diviziya15 Обмен состоялся при поддержке бойцов Дикой Дивизии Донбасса, 810-ой отдельной гвардейской бригады морской пехоты и 1427-го полка ВС РФ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

A strange thing took place in Kharkov. Ukraine's SBU arrested a scientist who was allegedly working from Ukraine on improving Russian Shahed catapults.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

KipPotapych · Sunday at 9:09 PM

Thanks for the lengthy update, Feanor. I haven’t been following the Russian side at all lately.

Feanor said:
There are reports Ukraine is pulling medical personnel out of rear end units and sending them to infantry brigades. Other reports talk about airfield support personnel, artillery crews, SAM and drone operators being converted to infantry.

This has been confirmed by Ignat. Not sure how to cite a certain post from Facebook on the phone (I do not generally do Facebook at all), but maybe this link will work:

https://m.facebook.com/yuriy.ignat/

Screenshots from the post translated to English:

seaspear · Monday at 2:05 AM

Russia's central bank governor warns of more dramatic changes as economy drives inflation above target levels this is after interest rates had been lifted to twenty one percent and subsidies on housing stopped

Russia’s Central Bank Chief Vows ‘Tough’ Response in Fight Against Inflation - The Moscow Times

Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned Thursday that “more drastic changes” in monetary policy may be needed as the country’s rumbling war economy drives inflation far above target levels.

www.themoscowtimes.com

KRAKATOA · Monday at 3:46 AM

personaldesas said:
The lack of support is still really puzzling to me.

Over the years Russia has conquered, in one way or another, quite a few countries. We haven't helped any of them at all. I'm afraid to say that the reason that Ukraine is receiving help is their positioning next to NATO and EU territory. From the perspective of non-western nations, it's one of those far-away-wars that they feel is none of their business.

seaspear · Monday at 4:59 AM

Here is another author able to provide some evidence for both sides losses ,Russia in this has a higher rate of losses compared to Ukrainian

Feanor · Monday at 4:12 PM

Feanor said:
There has been much talk about Russia running out of armored vehicles at storage bases and I've never regarded the reasoning as particularly credible. Here we have first evidence that Russia will likely follow the same path with armored vehicles as they did with missiles and artillery shells. Russia has apparently sourced a batch of armored cars based on the Toyota Landcruiser chassis, possibly from the UAE. No doubt Russia will source vehicles from many other countries. It's unclear where these vehicles are going, one logical choice would be to send them to National Guard units to replace their BTRs and any BMPs they still have (they shouldn't have any but they might). But we could also see them in the war zone.

On a side note I have a very poor opinion of these types of armored cars. Streit Group is notorious for producing these kinds of vehicles and many have seen service in Ukraine. A very common one is the Roshel Senator. They tend to have poor off-road mobility and protection levels well below that of an MRAP. On a side-note even MRAPs aren't really ideal for the current war, tracked vehicles seem to do better in the terrain.

Another curious aside, I can't help but wonder if Russia has already imported BMP-1s or 2s, or something else of Soviet manufacture from some source and we simply wouldn't notice it.

I just realized, the way I wrote this is misleading. I didn't mean to imply that that Roshel Senator is made by Streit Group. It's obviously made by Roshel. It's a common example (in this war) of an armored vehicle made by putting an armored hull on a civilian truck/SUV chassis. These vehicles aren't great for actual warfare, being better for police actions. Up until now Russia has only made such ersatz vehicles in small quantities on military truck chassis. Now they're sourcing something of the sort from abroad. They're obviously better then nothing, but they're not good.

personaldesas said:
I checked out the article and am genuinely curious why anyone would use GDP as the major indicator of economic health in a wartime economy. This puzzled me so much that I tried to look up the author, Nicholas Larsen, to see if he is actually a trained economist, but I couldn’t really find any information about him or his background, which is a bit odd.

I'd recommending looking at historical war economy GDPs, and how they correct once the war economy is over. All that spending to produce weapons, supplies, and infrastructure obviously inflates GDP during wartime. However, much of this spending doesnt necessarily contribute to productive, long-term economic growth.

And sure, paying all those men big bucks to send them to the front puts money in people’s pockets. And of course, wages go up when you pull a bunch of people out of the productive economy to make war goods. It also limits your capacity to produce consumer goods to meet the populations demands. A symptom of that is the inflation we’re seeing in Russia.

While I certainly don’t claim that Russia’s economy is on the verge of collapsing (and I don’t know anyone respectable who does), it’s a stretch to say that ‘Russia’s economy continues to outperform.’ In my opinion, there’s a good chance we’re just seeing the typical artificial inflation of wartime economies.

I also find the notion that Russia’s economy is unaffected by sanctions questionable. The BoR recently mentioned them as partially responsible for inflation:

A little context, much of this discussion is a response to a claim by someone in this discussion that stated that Russia's economy and banking sector are collapsing, and that Russia no longer has a stock market. None of this was true. I think the general consensus here is that Russia's economy is hurting and has many problems. However Russia's economy has done better then many, myself included, would have expected and western sanctions haven't been as damaging as many predicted. I don't think anyone really thinks Russia's economy is doing great. But it's doing better then expected, which admittedly isn't the highest bar to clear.

Fredled · Monday at 5:38 PM

Feanor said:
There are reports Ukraine is pulling medical personnel out of rear end units and sending them to infantry brigades. Other reports talk about airfield support personnel, artillery crews, SAM and drone operators being converted to infantry.

KipPotapych said:

This has been confirmed by Ignat. Not sure how to cite a certain post from Facebook on the phone (I do not generally do Facebook at all), but maybe this link will work

Click to expand...

:

When, a few months ago, they were talking about mobilizing half a million men, they noticed that their army is 700 000 strong but only 200 000 are fighting on the front. Maybe they are sending these non combattant personnel to combat units.

KRAKATOA said:
I'm afraid to say that the reason that Ukraine is receiving help is their positioning next to NATO and EU territory. From the perspective of non-western nations, it's one of those far-away-wars that they feel is none of their business.

You shouldn't be afraid to say this: It's true. The reasoning behind helping Ukraine is that if Putin can invade Ukraine he can invade other countries as well in Europe.

I have thinking a long time about the reasons why non-western nations seem to ignore the war in Ukraine and keep their relations with Russia as if nothing happened.
I was watching the press conference with Sergei Lavrov and the foreign minister of Koweit. And before that, the BRICS conference in Kazan. And I was thinking how can they let Lavrov tell his lies again and again? Of course there is the good deals for cheap oil and other things that they can broker out thanks to the western sanctions on Russia.

But there is one more reason for this nonchalance. The reason is that many nations, and in particular Arab and Muslim ones, war between religious or ethnic groups is normal. They don't understand why they should react negatively when Russia is doing what their religious tribal nations are doing and were doing all the time. Putin is making his jihad, so what?

Ananda said:
Just like you say before that Russian economies is collapsing. However you can't provide data that shown collapsing and you back tracking on that. Even IMF data did not shown they (Russia) is collapsing.

How can you have data from Russia? And how can you have data on something that didn't happen yet?
Russia's economy has not collapsed but it will collapse or is in the process of collapsing because all the ingredients are there for a collapse and the main ingredient is war.
It takes more time for two reasons:
1/ The huge stack of assets that the West didn't manage to freeze.
2/ Increased trading and investing by countries not applying sanctions.
But these two things won't be enough to stop the bleeding.

Invading Ukraine was, in itself, a mistake. But the size and the volumes now involved in it is beyond imagination.
The waste of material and human ressources is huge. It's logical that the economy will collapse, if they keep on with this agenda.

Russia was already in a state of failure with its industry. Unable to maintain their industrial base without foreign expertise despite their industrial inheritage from the USSR. Russia's internal economy was already not the best, marred with inefficient management, poor investments in infrastructures and import dependence. This war is one more evidence of bad decision making, bad allocation of ressources and corruption. It will kill it.

rsemmes · Monday at 9:50 PM

Fredled said:
When, a few months ago, they were talking about mobilizing half a million men, they noticed that their army is 700 000 strong but only 200 000 are fighting on the front. Maybe they are sending these non combattant personnel to combat units.

You shouldn't be afraid to say this: It's true. The reasoning behind helping Ukraine is that if Putin can invade Ukraine he can invade other countries as well in Europe.
I have thinking a long time about the reasons why non-western nations seem to ignore the war in Ukraine and keep their relations with Russia as if nothing happened.
I was watching the press conference with Sergei Lavrov and the foreign minister of Koweit. And before that, the BRICS conference in Kazan. And I was thinking how can they let Lavrov tell his lies again and again? Of course there is the good deals for cheap oil and other things that they can broker out thanks to the western sanctions on Russia.
But there is one more reason for this nonchalance. The reason is that many nations, and in particular Arab and Muslim ones, war between religious or ethnic groups is normal. They don't understand why they should react negatively when Russia is doing what their religious tribal nations are doing and were doing all the time. Putin is making his jihad, so what?

You are a bit misleading there. Zaluhzny requested 500.000 men, Zelensky said no (and sent him to London). I don't consider a denied request "talking about something".

Maybe it is not "reasoning" but "interests", but you are right, Russia, and UK, and France, and US can invade "other countries" in Europe, and all over the world too.
Maybe non-western countries think that "Europe’s problems are not the world’s problems". On the other hand, yes, it is "normal". War is normal, it's just politics by other means. For politics, religion, ethnicity or economy; even to maintain own country 's world position.

BTW...
The Pentagon assesses that Ukraine has enough soldiers to fight for six to 12 more months, one official said. After that, he said, it will face a steep shortage. NYT

As Russia Advances, U.S. Fears Ukraine Has Entered a Grim Phase

Weapons supplies are no longer Ukraine’s main disadvantage, American military officials say.

www.nytimes.com

That could be a reason not to help Ukraine.

rsemmes · Monday at 11:26 PM

What I wonder is...

KYIV, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Ukraine would not be opposed if Qatar or any other country were to negotiate an agreement on energy security via separate talks with Ukraine and Russia, a top Ukrainian presidential official said in a televised interview released on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-not-opposed-qatar-negotiating-energy-security-kyiv-says-2024-11-04/

If Zelensky is, in diplomatic language, requesting to start negotiations about energy and, maybe, later on, about peace?

Zelenskyy raised the prospect of a preemptive Ukrainian strike on camps where the North Korean troops are being trained and said Kyiv knows their location. But he said Ukraine can't do it without permission from allies to use Western-made long-range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.

Ukraine's Zelenskyy urges allies to act before North Korean troops reach the front

The Biden administration said Thursday that some 8,000 North Korean soldiers are now in Russia's Kursk region near Ukraine's border.

www.cbsnews.com

I also wonder about his insistence on those missiles, he can "drone" Moscow. I also doubt that he knows the location, maybe he means that NATO knows the location.
Zelensky is recruiting 200.000 men (I am including 40.000 deserters), what does he think those 10.000 NK troops are going to achieve?

Out of curiosity, I wonder what word Sirskiy used and how can it be translated, in the context of "holding back/restraining" the Russian offensive.

Feanor · Monday at 11:36 PM

Fredled said:
When, a few months ago, they were talking about mobilizing half a million men, they noticed that their army is 700 000 strong but only 200 000 are fighting on the front. Maybe they are sending these non combattant personnel to combat units.

There is typically a high ratio of troops not on the front lines supporting those who are. For every infantryman you need truck drivers, medical personnel, warehouse soldiers, vehicle maintenance guys, artillery, radio operators, air defense crews, aircraft crews, ship crews, etc. Sending people from the rear to the front can be a good decision in principle when there are too many people in the rear, suggesting your structure was bloated to begin with or suggesting that heavy infantry losses have reduced how many support personnel you truly need. While in the second scenario it would still be a good decision, it would indicate a bad situation. In the first scenario it would indicate some issues with the Ukrainian military at an institutional level. For medical personnel for example a good indication would be if military medical personnel are being under-utilized. I.e. the hospitals are short on patients and these soldiers don't have much to do. For air defense personnel it would suggest that Ukraine has a very robust air defense grid and isn't letting inbounds through and has extra soldiers sitting around. I don't think either one is true, suggesting that Ukraine isn't trimming the fat, but instead is willing to accept worse medical service and worse air defenses in exchange for replacing losses at the front.

seaspear · Monday at 11:38 PM

Re the Russian economy and the effects of war there seems to be a comparison to the effects on the US after the Vietnam war

US Economy | Costs of War

The Costs of War Project is a team of 35 scholars, legal experts, human rights practitioners, and physicians, which began its work in 2011. We use research and a public website to facilitate debate about the costs of the post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

watson.brown.edu

I could go into the effects from the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, although many jobs were created after these wars there are no economic returns and the US has been shown to of got a better result economically if investing at home in social and other programs

Human and Budgetary Costs to Date of the U.S. War in Afghanistan, 2001-2022 | Figures | Costs of War

The Costs of War Project is a team of 35 scholars, legal experts, human rights practitioners, and physicians, which began its work in 2011. We use research and a public website to facilitate debate about the costs of the post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

watson.brown.edu

Ukraine may be bailed out post war by the E.U and U.S and other countries Im not sure who bails out Russia having lost much of its energy market

KipPotapych · Tuesday at 1:54 AM

Feanor said:
I don't think either one is true, suggesting that Ukraine isn't trimming the fat, but instead is willing to accept worse medical service and worse air defenses in exchange for replacing losses at the front.

It says in very direct terms in the Ignat’s post I cited above that this is happening due to the “overwhelmingly failed mobilization and motivation”. In spite of commons sense and Ignat’s words, I understand it is reasonable for some to assume that this is all from “strength of the million-man army” (it was reported to be a million-men army, not 700K that they “suddenly noticed” and it was discussed here previously). Rather amazing to me, but it is what it is and freedom of thought is a fundamental right, haha.

Meduza reported today in English (citing a another source in Russain) about the first version of the “peace draft” from early March. Those interested can read the article here (the source in Russian is cited in the article for those wanting to read the original text):

Newly published documents from invasion’s first weeks reveal Putin’s plans to render post-war Ukraine powerless — Meduza

RFE/RL’s Russian investigative unit Systema has obtained a copy of Russia’s initial proposal for a “peace agreement” with Ukraine, which the Kremlin drafted shortly after launching its full-scale war against the country in 2022. The document reveals exactly what Russia was seeking in the...

meduza.io

A few to things to note are Russia was making a lot of concessions as situation on the ground and negotiations progressed; security guarantees in the like of the article 5 were part of the agreement (no one asked the guarantors though, I am assuming, and I sure they would reject he idea), etc. The article also mentions that after the Kursk invasion, Putin is basically leaning towards the fight until Ukraine capitulates completely. That is according to some source “familiar with current Putin’s position on negotiations”.

BBC’s HARDTalk interviewed Kelin (Russian ambassador to the UK). Those interested can give it a listen here (lots of rubbish, btw):

HARDtalk - Andrei Kelin: Is Vladimir Putin reshaping geopolitics? - BBC Sounds

Stephen Sackur speaks to Russia’s ambassador in London, Andrei Kelin

www.bbc.co.uk

As per Kelin, there will be no compromises and Russia will not return any of the occupied territories (that he says was a possibility in 2022). (To add an edit here, something came to me after posting: when he was asked about Medvedev’s statements, he said that there are only three people who can seriously/officially talk on the subject and neither Medvedev nor Kelin himself are among those people - I think he said Putin, Lavrov, and… hmm I don’t remember). They discuss other topics as well, including Georgia and Moldova. On this subject, though outside of the scope of this thread, but for humour purposes, the first and third headlines at Politico (.eu) today are rather funny:

Of note, the second headline is rather funny too (I didn’t read the article).

Fredled · Tuesday at 7:04 PM

rsemmes said:
Zelensky said no

I don't think that Zelensky decides. It's not that simple. Putin himself failed to undertake a second mobilisation.

rsemmes said:
and UK, and France, and US can invade "other countries" in Europe, and all over the world too.

No. Uk, France and the US and any other civilised countries can't invade because it's not in the mentalities anymore to make war against each other in Europe or elsewhere. In Europe it's simply unthinkable.

The US has invaded Iraq and it was the biggest stupidity in the entire history of North America. Except Iraq, Western countries make military interventions oversea to support one party over another, but they don't invade. France has never invaded Mali. Allies never invaded Syria or Kurdistan when they fought against ISIS. And Afghanistan has never been really invaded when they fought against al-Qaida. We never invaded Serbia. It doesn't mean that these military interventions are always good. But they are not invasions. Currently, in Europe, and pratically in the whole world, only Russia is invading another country.

rsemmes said:
The Pentagon assesses that Ukraine has enough soldiers to fight for six to 12 more months, one official said. After that, he said, it will face a steep shortage.

That could be a reason not to help Ukraine.

That could a good reason to help Ukraine more, IMO. In any case we should help Ukraine more.

rsemmes said:
If Zelensky is, in diplomatic language, requesting to start negotiations about energy and, maybe, later on, about peace?

More and more pundits speculate about secret preparations for peace talks, but honestly, I think, they are still very far from it.
Protecting energy infrastructures, demining and the Grain Corridor are topics which are more palatable to raise with wannabe neutral countries who still want to help Ukraine while keeping their "neutrality" intact. By "neutrality", understand good relations with Russia.
Zelensky must tackle these topics if he wants aid from these countries.

rsemmes said:
Zelenskyy raised the prospect of a preemptive Ukrainian strike on camps where the North Korean troops are being trained and said Kyiv knows their location. But he said Ukraine can't do it without permission from allies to use Western-made long-range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.

I also wonder about his insistence on those missiles, he can "drone" Moscow. I also doubt that he knows the location, maybe he means that NATO knows the location.

1/ First of all, there is a technical reason: When Ukrainians use drones for a long range attack Deep Inside Russia, it takes them months to prepare. Sometimes over a year. If the hurry, they will likely fail and lose precious long range drone or demstically produced missiles. They can;t do semi-random strikes with multiple volleys on multiple targets as the Russians do. When they strike far inside Russia, they have only one shot.

if they want to strike the training camps where North Koreans are being trained, they better do it quickly because a camp is, by definition, a temporary location. Even f they are in a base, they may not be there anymore once the plan is ready.
With Western cruise missiles, they can strike much faster, In a matter of days, maybe one week. Even with cruise missiles, it takes some amount of preparation.

2/ Second, it's a way for Zelinsky to involve the US. To say that it's as much their problem as Ukraine's. That it's the duty of the US to act.
However, the US is not willing to engage combat with North Korea, no matter who is the next President.

Feanor said:
While in the second scenario it would still be a good decision, it would indicate a bad situation.

I agree.
The only fact that they need to find 200 000 men ASAP shows that the situation is difficult.
It's just logical that they will start to mobilise military personel first. Of course not the essential ones, like surgeons, drone experts, experienced air defense operators and the likes, but rather those siting in offices or warehouses with no real job. I suspect that they can find a few thousands like these, without reducing the quality of essential services.
It would not make sens to ask civilians to fight on the front line while carrier military workers stay confortably in the rear.
That doesn't mean that Ukraine don't need to also mobilise and motivate civilians. Money is the main ingredient for motivation.

About Moldova and Georgia:
Despite large Russian interference that should be accounted for, the results of the polls were disapointing for Europe. In both countries, pro-European parties and presidents won by a thin margin. While it can be understandable for Georgia because it's not an European country (despite what others may say), for Moldova it's incomprehensible. It should be soemthing like 70 or 80% pro Europeam. Russian propagand should not be able to influence that much the election if the population is convinced that the European way is the best way.
With the war in Ukraine, it's even more diffficult to understand how some people in Moldova can vote for pro-Russian parties.

seaspear · Tuesday at 7:56 PM

Perhaps Moldovans had a incentive to vote this way s these articles allege

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-alleges-pro-russian-vote-buying-scheme-ahead-key-vote-2024-10-03/

Russia paying people to vote against joining EU, Moldova warns

Moscow has built a “mafia-style” network to distribute cash ahead of a critical referendum on the country’s future, top Moldovan officials told POLITICO.

www.politico.eu

Ananda · Wednesday at 12:14 AM

seaspear said:
Ukraine may be bailed out post war by the EU and US and other countries Im not sure who bails out Russia having lost much of its energy market

This is sound more like what 'if' scenario. Ukraine might be bailed out, but depends whether after the War, Western tax payers still have appetites to finance Ukraine. Most likely scenario Ukraine has to sell more land right and state business to Western Investor. There are more likely scenario that Western Investors will own most of large Ukrainian business then China will own most of Russia ones.

Russia lost much of it's energy market ? The market data don't show that. Their energy export is keeping their global market share, only shifting to other parts of the world. Losing Western energy market is not the same at present time as losing much of the market. Non western market are continuing to increase their market share Vis a Vis Western market.

rsemmes · Wednesday at 12:19 AM

Fredled said:
I don't think that Zelensky decides. It's not that simple. Putin himself failed to undertake a second mobilisation.

No. Uk, France and the US and any other civilised countries can't invade because it's not in the mentalities anymore to make war against each other in Europe or elsewhere. In Europe it's simply unthinkable.

1/ First of all, there is a technical reason: When Ukrainians use drones for a long range attack Deep Inside Russia, it takes them months to prepare. Sometimes over a year. If the hurry, they will likely fail and lose precious long range drone or demstically produced missiles. They can;t do semi-random strikes with multiple volleys on multiple targets as the Russians do. When they strike far inside Russia, they have only one shot.

2/ Second, it's a way for Zelinsky to involve the US. To say that it's as much their problem as Ukraine's. That it's the duty of the US to act.
However, the US is not willing to engage combat with North Korea, no matter who is the next President.

Maybe you mean that Putin decided not undertake that mobilization. Yes, it not that simple (I am surprised you saying that: duty), but he is the President, isn't he?

Boris Johnson ordered the planning of a military operation against the Netherlands to retrieve COVID vaccines; not an invasion, just a SMO. You just need to give them the right circumstances.
How unthinkable do you think it is for the British Army to shoot British civilians on British soil? Just give them the right circumstances.
Are you calling US uncivilized? What do you mean by "each other"? What other is "thinkable"? Bombing is all good but you draw the line at invading? SF and bombing still good for you? What is the difference between invaded and "really invaded"?

Over a year? Have you being doing that planning or where is that data coming from?

Yes, Zelensky's delusional plan of NATO fighting his war, Zelensky telling the uncivilized US what its duty is; that simple.

You are telling those countries what their mentality is and Zelensky is telling US what its duty is, that simple; but, of course, the willingness ("mentality") to invade is not the capacity/ability (can) to invade.
Coming back to the reality of the battlefield... Putin took a decision based on his view of Russian interests (invasion) as Zelensky took a decision based on his view of Ukraine interests (and its capacities, but maybe not a very accurate view of those.)

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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