The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The withdrawal near Kiev is actually happening. It looks like someone figured out they don't have the resources to attack that city, so Russian forces are out of Borodyanka and Gostomel'.
 

InterestedParty

Active Member
The ask wasn't an accident.
The pm committing to delivery was also not an accident.
4 x c17s in Europe isn't an accident. They won't be sitting idle.
Why does the RAAF have half of its heavy transport fleet sitting in Europe? Are they waiting to take part in a resupply or evacuation?
If they are already in Europe presumably they have to return to Australia to take part in a delivery of Bushmasters
 

catullus76

New Member
Today, two Ukrainian MI-24 helicopters flew into Russian airspace and attacked an oil depot in Belgorod. It was difficult to spot the helicopters because they were flying at an ultra-low altitude, the oil storage was hit by unguided S-8 missiles. Strong fire breaks out at oil depot in Belgorod
Why are the Ukrainians denying this? Are they afraid that if they attack Russian soil, then R will threaten nuclear weapons? How plausible is it that U got through R's air defense systems? I think the most logical explanation is that this was a Ukrainian attack but a Russian defection is also possible though highly improbable.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Why does the RAAF have half of its heavy transport fleet sitting in Europe? Are they waiting to take part in a resupply or evacuation?
If they are already in Europe presumably they have to return to Australia to take part in a delivery of Bushmasters
How do you imagine the stuff sent previously got there? And the RAAF may also be hauling stuff from other donors.

oldsig
 

QEDdeq

Member
Why are the Ukrainians denying this? Are they afraid that if they attack Russian soil, then R will threaten nuclear weapons? How plausible is it that U got through R's air defense systems? I think the most logical explanation is that this was a Ukrainian attack but a Russian defection is also possible though highly improbable.
They want on one hand to tongue in cheek to internal audience ''yes, we did it'', with the aim being to keep morale up by showing they retain capability to attack across border into Russia. While on the other hand such an attack can be seen as escalatory by other countries who would like to see the conflict on a de-escalation path, by denying the attack and blaming it on a false flag Russian operation they can deflect from being blamed of taking escalatory steps.
 

CumbrianRover

New Member
The withdrawal near Kiev is actually happening. It looks like someone figured out they don't have the resources to attack that city, so Russian forces are out of Borodyanka and Gostomel'.
I'd really appreciate your take on the helo attack on the oil storage, please.

RusAF have denuded UkrAF of air defence assets AND have, reportedly, air superiority in their own zones of occupation and parts of Ukraine.

How then would:
Two attack helos fly undetected through a hostile environment?
Refuel in hostile zones?
Have a camera ready to film the whole thing?

I'm curious.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
I'd really appreciate your take on the helo attack on the oil storage, please.

RusAF have denuded UkrAF of air defence assets AND have, reportedly, air superiority in their own zones of occupation and parts of Ukraine.

How then would:
Two attack helos fly undetected through a hostile environment?
Refuel in hostile zones?
Have a camera ready to film the whole thing?

I'm curious.
How much of their air defence assets they have taken out is not fully known nor is it fully known how much Ukraine actually had in the first place as while originally they had X amount in service they were also in process of fixing up and rushing every bit of old and forgotten bit of gear they could.

Helicopters flying very low to the ground at night would make chance of radar detection very low as they can fly below that and an airborne radar capable to detecting them would have to come from an AEW&C type of asset which Russia has few of if my memory serves me while visually to average civilian they could think its RuAF and RuAF pilots trying to see them at night low on the ground? Good luck.

Who said they refueled? A Mil Mi-24 has a 450km odd range and from Kharkiv to Belgorod is about 72km in a straight line. So more then enough capacity in range to get their and back and perform what ever diversions needed to achieve operational success.

As for the camerca, Every man and his dog has a phone with a camerca these days, In a City of new 400,000 after hearing loud explosions how hard is it to believe a couple people where able to get some footage? Not very hard at all.
 

phreeky

Active Member
I think the most logical explanation is that this was a Ukrainian attack but a Russian defection is also possible though highly improbable.
This feels like a 50%+ chance to me. Russia was incredibly quick to accuse Ukraine which gives a sense of a false flag - obviously unlikely though if that depot was actually of any importance.

The only reason I can see Ukraine denying it was that attacking on Russian soil has been ruled out by allies providing support, and they are working very hard behind the scenes ensuring it doesn't happen again.

Personally I don't see any issue with it. After all they have every right to do anything from cross border precision strikes to inviting whoever they want into their country and help defend it from invaders. It boggles the mind that Russia can accuse Ukraine of any significant wrong doing after what they've made places like Mariupol look like.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
This feels like a 50%+ chance to me. Russia was incredibly quick to accuse Ukraine which gives a sense of a false flag - obviously unlikely though if that depot was actually of any importance.

The only reason I can see Ukraine denying it was that attacking on Russian soil has been ruled out by allies providing support, and they are working very hard behind the scenes ensuring it doesn't happen again.

Personally I don't see any issue with it. After all they have every right to do anything from cross border precision strikes to inviting whoever they want into their country and help defend it from invaders. It boggles the mind that Russia can accuse Ukraine of any significant wrong doing after what they've made places like Mariupol look like.
A false flag operation by the Russians makes no sense at all. It is an embarrassment to the Russians.

Of course the Ukrainians denied it and of course the Russians know they are lying. But it's better and safer all around that way and both parties know it. And yes, it is ridiculous for the Russians to act put out over it, as look what they have done to Ukraine. They know that, too, but it's how the game is played.

My question is, how important was that fuel facility? Will it impact Russian operations in any meaningful way?
 
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Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Zelensky fired two generals and labelled them as traitors:


It seems odd to announce it that way. Here he is in this speech trying to rally everyone around the flag, and speaking of traitorous generals, not just the two he fired but more to come, which would hardly inspire confidence in his people, whether military or civilian. Why not just say they had been replaced for now? I don't get it. If I were a Ukrainian civilian, it would make me nervous to hear that, and if military, extra nervous.

Sorry it's the DM, but the only video I could find of Zelensky's entire speech on You Tube with subtitles. About halfway through he starts talking about Donbas and the fight ahead. He indicates they do not plan to withdraw their troops.


This could get even bloodier. I shudder to think ...

You know, even if one is capable of putting one's heart to the side and look at this in a purely calculating way, Ukraine and Russia are both in serious trouble on the demographic front and we all know the saying about "demography is destiny". Is it really worth it? And in the sgort term, those guys can't exactly be replaced. It's not a game and neither side can exactly order another box of toy soldiers from Amazon after blowing up the ones they've got with firecrackers. I just hope I am wrong and it will not be as bloody as I fear.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
My question is, how important was that fuel facility? Will it impact Russian operations in any meaningful way?
According to RT (watch it on my Cable last night, as RT not block in here), only two of Oil Tanks directly hit. They shown video of fire fighters try to save the facility. RT claim it is Gazprom commercial facility, this not involve in the 'special' military operation in Ukraine.

Still it's RT claim, thus just like Ukraine media, has to be taken with grain of salt as big sea of azov. Off course it's used in Russian operation in North Front. However I suspect the effect will be minimal even for the North Front.

I do believe this's not false flag, not beneficial on any propaganda benefits for Russian to blown up one of Gazprom facilities. It's just matter of gutsy flying from Ukranian combined with Russian carelessness with luck factor.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Another option has been put forward that I saw on the msn news, that there was a mistake or failing at the depot and that blaming the Ukrainians was a way of covering this up. film and photos are to easy to change or produce to be reliable evidence.
 

phreeky

Active Member
Of course the Ukrainians denied it and of course the Russians know they are lying.
Or Russian's in the military whom are against the war did it. It seems unlikely that 2 crews would be in on it though.

I've long ago ruled out expecting logical decision making from Putin and the Russian military. An excuse/requirement to pivot back towards that region wouldn't be a bad thing for Russia.
 

Larso66

Member
The Bushmasters are not exactly lethal? Their reputation was built on the survival of crewmen when the vehicles encountered mines etc in Afghanistan. The threats in Ukraine, particularly from the air, are far greater. They have a single machine gun mounted on top. Maybe the plan is for them to insert anti-armour teams? Being wheeled - and only four wheels at that - means their mobility will not be guaranteed in the Ukraine environment. My initial thought was that they would be ambulance models, marked as such and frankly, more fitting with Australia's usual style of involvement.
 

CumbrianRover

New Member
How much of their air defence assets they have taken out is not fully known nor is it fully known how much Ukraine actually had in the first place as while originally they had X amount in service they were also in process of fixing up and rushing every bit of old and forgotten bit of gear they could.

Helicopters flying very low to the ground at night would make chance of radar detection very low as they can fly below that and an airborne radar capable to detecting them would have to come from an AEW&C type of asset which Russia has few of if my memory serves me while visually to average civilian they could think its RuAF and RuAF pilots trying to see them at night low on the ground? Good luck.

Who said they refueled? A Mil Mi-24 has a 450km odd range and from Kharkiv to Belgorod is about 72km in a straight line. So more then enough capacity in range to get their and back and perform what ever diversions needed to achieve operational success.

As for the camerca, Every man and his dog has a phone with a camerca these days, In a City of new 400,000 after hearing loud explosions how hard is it to believe a couple people where able to get some footage? Not very hard at all.
Thank you for the considered reply, much appreciated.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
My initial thought was that they would be ambulance models, marked as such and frankly, more fitting with Australia's usual style of involvement.
When we were asked specifically for Bushmasters, my thought was that Ukraine was seeking Trojan Horses.

NOT in the sense that they be filled with soldiers to jump out once Russia had hauled them into their headquarters as war booty, but in the sense that they'd represent the *first * armoured vehicles given to Ukraine by a friendly nation. Then....

"If Australia can give us what we asks, why not YOU?"

Zelensky is a very canny operator in the PR field.

oldsig

(and as PMVs go, they are good at their job, so not useless so may be a small assistance)
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There are claims by American media that President Biden has authorised US help in the transfer of Soviet tanks from third parties to Ukraine. This is a new and timely development. U.S. Will Help Transfer Soviet-Made Tanks to Ukraine - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Whether this will eventually apply to aircraft is another story.

There are also reports of Russian military personnel refusing orders and destroying their own equipment. Ukraine war: Russian soldiers refusing orders, sabotaging equipment - UK spy chief - NZ Herald How factual this is I don't know but we have seen evidence of bad discipline and Russian troops abandoning serviceable equipment on the battlefield.

South Ossetia has decided that it wants to be incorporated into the Russian Motherland. Russia-Ukraine war: South Ossetia region of Georgia announces plans to join Russia - NZ Herald This will create some more problems in the region.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Around Kiev.

Russian troops have withdrawn from Gostomel'.


Destroyed bank vans, allegedly being used by Kiev territorial defense forces.


Russian BMD-2 and 4M blown near Gostomel'. They were likely deemed not worth evacuating.


Burned out T-64BV, Gostomel'.


Ukrainian troops removing a minefield near Borodyanka.


Ukrainian An-124 in Gostomel'. Russian forces have recently left the base.


The North.

Russian forces captured 4 T-64BVs near Chernigov. Allegedly a Russian recon team caught the crews off guard. The tanks are loaded but lacking fuel.


Kharkov-Sumy.

A Russian fuel storage facility in Belgorod got hit by a Ukrainian Mi-24 strike. It appears that a pair of them flying low got inside Russian airspace. Considerable MChS resources had to be pulled to put out the flames.


Russian air defenses firing over Belgorod. Possibly another strike.


Iskander launches at Kharkov.


Russian fuel and ammo convoy, near Kharkov. Note they're pushing the damaged fuel truck in front of them.


More destroyed bank vans, these near Chuguev.


Sumy region, damaged bridge.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrvosk-Krivoy Rog.

MLRS impacts near Krivoy Rog.


A stash of Ukrainian munitions was found buried at a military base near Melitopol'.


Russian National Guard, Melitopol'.


Ukrainian MiG-29, Dnepropetrovsk region, date unclear. Note the low altitude.


Civilians taped to a pole, context unclear, location Dnepropetrovsk.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

More footage of damage to the Nikolaev city administration office, 16 KIAs apparently so far.


Russian forces in Kherson at night.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Rebels using ATGMs to take out enemy entrenchments.


LNR artillery firing near Severo-Donetsk.


The rebel advance continues slowly in Mar'inka.


Russian Ka-52 and Mi-28N over Popasnaya. I can't help but wonder, we see so much footage of Mi-28s and Ka-52s operating side by side. Why? Does one offer a capability the other doesn't have? The thing that immediately comes to mind is the radar on the Ka-52, that the regular Mi-28N doesn't have (only the Mi-28NM and Mi-28UB). But it's unclear.


Humvee captured by rebel forces.


4 captured BTR-4s and an armored car captured near Izyum.


Ukrainian BTR-70 captured near popasnaya.


Large number of Ukrainian POWs taken by the rebels.


Rebel forces with NLAWs. Some are clearly spent.


LNR forces in Melovskiy.


DNR forces after battle.


In Kramatorsk the local authorities had trenches and fighting positions dug in yards to prepare for urban fighting. Locals have taken to using them as trash dumps.


Rebels and Russian volunteers delivering humanitarian aid, Rubezhnoe.


Schastye, LNR area, being cleared of land mines and UXO.


Mariupol'.

Another map of the front line in Mariupol', grain of salt, etc.


Ukrainian positions at Azovstal' getting hit.


Russian Marines in combat, Mariupol'.


Russian and rebel forces in combat, Mariupol'.


Rebel forces in the center of Mariupol'. Warning footage of corpses.


Combat footage from Mariupol', at least a few days old.


More footage from the downed helos near Mariupol'.


Battle damage in Mariupol'.


Assorted footage of Russian and rebel forces Mariupol'.


Swedish AT-4CS captured in Mariupol'.


Assorted footage, Mariupol'.


Civilians leaving Mariupol' in a horse-drawn buggy.


Rebel authorities are mandating burials of corpses due to the warm weather in Mariupol', in areas that are under rebel control.


Ukrainian border guard service member surrendering. He claims Azov took the rest of their service members, while he surrendered. He also says that 3 of his fellow service members were killed.


Civilians lining up for humanitarian aid, Mariupol'.


The West.

Pole taping, L'vov. Context unclear.


A burial for a Ukrainian fighter in western Ukraine.


Misc.

Russian Ka-52 operating over Ukraine.


Ukrainian Grads hit by a strike, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian S-300s hit, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian T-64BV hit, location and context unclear.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, assorted footage.


Al-Jazeera captures footage of Ukrainian fighters using an ambulance as a transport.


Ukrainian territorial defense carrying a Steyr AUG A3 SF, location and context unclear.


Russian BTR-D, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian POWs, location and context unclear, possible near Mariupol'. They look like they were beaten. They were allegedly taken by btln Somail, DNR, and are telling other service members to surrender. It's curious that they're all speaking Ukrainian.


Pole taping continues. Context and location unclear.


The UK is delivering 84 000 helmets to Ukraine.

 
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