The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Apr 1, 2022

The withdrawal near Kiev is actually happening. It looks like someone figured out they don't have the resources to attack that city, so Russian forces are out of Borodyanka and Gostomel'.

InterestedParty · Apr 1, 2022

StingrayOZ said:
The ask wasn't an accident.
The pm committing to delivery was also not an accident.
4 x c17s in Europe isn't an accident. They won't be sitting idle.

Why does the RAAF have half of its heavy transport fleet sitting in Europe? Are they waiting to take part in a resupply or evacuation?
If they are already in Europe presumably they have to return to Australia to take part in a delivery of Bushmasters

catullus76 · Apr 1, 2022

Soldier25 said:
Today, two Ukrainian MI-24 helicopters flew into Russian airspace and attacked an oil depot in Belgorod. It was difficult to spot the helicopters because they were flying at an ultra-low altitude, the oil storage was hit by unguided S-8 missiles. Strong fire breaks out at oil depot in Belgorod

Why are the Ukrainians denying this? Are they afraid that if they attack Russian soil, then R will threaten nuclear weapons? How plausible is it that U got through R's air defense systems? I think the most logical explanation is that this was a Ukrainian attack but a Russian defection is also possible though highly improbable.

oldsig127 · Apr 1, 2022

InterestedParty said:
Why does the RAAF have half of its heavy transport fleet sitting in Europe? Are they waiting to take part in a resupply or evacuation?
If they are already in Europe presumably they have to return to Australia to take part in a delivery of Bushmasters

How do you imagine the stuff sent previously got there? And the RAAF may also be hauling stuff from other donors.

oldsig

QEDdeq · Apr 1, 2022

catullus76 said:
Why are the Ukrainians denying this? Are they afraid that if they attack Russian soil, then R will threaten nuclear weapons? How plausible is it that U got through R's air defense systems? I think the most logical explanation is that this was a Ukrainian attack but a Russian defection is also possible though highly improbable.

They want on one hand to tongue in cheek to internal audience ''yes, we did it'', with the aim being to keep morale up by showing they retain capability to attack across border into Russia. While on the other hand such an attack can be seen as escalatory by other countries who would like to see the conflict on a de-escalation path, by denying the attack and blaming it on a false flag Russian operation they can deflect from being blamed of taking escalatory steps.

CumbrianRover · Apr 1, 2022

Feanor said:
The withdrawal near Kiev is actually happening. It looks like someone figured out they don't have the resources to attack that city, so Russian forces are out of Borodyanka and Gostomel'.

I'd really appreciate your take on the helo attack on the oil storage, please.

RusAF have denuded UkrAF of air defence assets AND have, reportedly, air superiority in their own zones of occupation and parts of Ukraine.

How then would:
Two attack helos fly undetected through a hostile environment?
Refuel in hostile zones?
Have a camera ready to film the whole thing?

I'm curious.

vonnoobie · Apr 1, 2022

CumbrianRover said:
I'd really appreciate your take on the helo attack on the oil storage, please.

RusAF have denuded UkrAF of air defence assets AND have, reportedly, air superiority in their own zones of occupation and parts of Ukraine.

How then would:
Two attack helos fly undetected through a hostile environment?
Refuel in hostile zones?
Have a camera ready to film the whole thing?

I'm curious.

How much of their air defence assets they have taken out is not fully known nor is it fully known how much Ukraine actually had in the first place as while originally they had X amount in service they were also in process of fixing up and rushing every bit of old and forgotten bit of gear they could.

Helicopters flying very low to the ground at night would make chance of radar detection very low as they can fly below that and an airborne radar capable to detecting them would have to come from an AEW&C type of asset which Russia has few of if my memory serves me while visually to average civilian they could think its RuAF and RuAF pilots trying to see them at night low on the ground? Good luck.

Who said they refueled? A Mil Mi-24 has a 450km odd range and from Kharkiv to Belgorod is about 72km in a straight line. So more then enough capacity in range to get their and back and perform what ever diversions needed to achieve operational success.

As for the camerca, Every man and his dog has a phone with a camerca these days, In a City of new 400,000 after hearing loud explosions how hard is it to believe a couple people where able to get some footage? Not very hard at all.

phreeky · Apr 1, 2022

catullus76 said:
I think the most logical explanation is that this was a Ukrainian attack but a Russian defection is also possible though highly improbable.

This feels like a 50%+ chance to me. Russia was incredibly quick to accuse Ukraine which gives a sense of a false flag - obviously unlikely though if that depot was actually of any importance.

The only reason I can see Ukraine denying it was that attacking on Russian soil has been ruled out by allies providing support, and they are working very hard behind the scenes ensuring it doesn't happen again.

Personally I don't see any issue with it. After all they have every right to do anything from cross border precision strikes to inviting whoever they want into their country and help defend it from invaders. It boggles the mind that Russia can accuse Ukraine of any significant wrong doing after what they've made places like Mariupol look like.

seaspear · Apr 1, 2022

Would this strike affect the logistics of Russia,s eastward attacks ito the Ukraine

Capt. Ironpants · Apr 1, 2022

phreeky said:
This feels like a 50%+ chance to me. Russia was incredibly quick to accuse Ukraine which gives a sense of a false flag - obviously unlikely though if that depot was actually of any importance.

The only reason I can see Ukraine denying it was that attacking on Russian soil has been ruled out by allies providing support, and they are working very hard behind the scenes ensuring it doesn't happen again.

Personally I don't see any issue with it. After all they have every right to do anything from cross border precision strikes to inviting whoever they want into their country and help defend it from invaders. It boggles the mind that Russia can accuse Ukraine of any significant wrong doing after what they've made places like Mariupol look like.

A false flag operation by the Russians makes no sense at all. It is an embarrassment to the Russians.

Of course the Ukrainians denied it and of course the Russians know they are lying. But it's better and safer all around that way and both parties know it. And yes, it is ridiculous for the Russians to act put out over it, as look what they have done to Ukraine. They know that, too, but it's how the game is played.

My question is, how important was that fuel facility? Will it impact Russian operations in any meaningful way?

Capt. Ironpants · Apr 1, 2022

Zelensky fired two generals and labelled them as traitors:

Zelensky fires two Ukrainian generals who were ‘traitors’

President also warns there are more battles ahead in Donbas and besieged port city of Mariupol

www.independent.co.uk

It seems odd to announce it that way. Here he is in this speech trying to rally everyone around the flag, and speaking of traitorous generals, not just the two he fired but more to come, which would hardly inspire confidence in his people, whether military or civilian. Why not just say they had been replaced for now? I don't get it. If I were a Ukrainian civilian, it would make me nervous to hear that, and if military, extra nervous.

Sorry it's the DM, but the only video I could find of Zelensky's entire speech on You Tube with subtitles. About halfway through he starts talking about Donbas and the fight ahead. He indicates they do not plan to withdraw their troops.

This could get even bloodier. I shudder to think ...

You know, even if one is capable of putting one's heart to the side and look at this in a purely calculating way, Ukraine and Russia are both in serious trouble on the demographic front and we all know the saying about "demography is destiny". Is it really worth it? And in the sgort term, those guys can't exactly be replaced. It's not a game and neither side can exactly order another box of toy soldiers from Amazon after blowing up the ones they've got with firecrackers. I just hope I am wrong and it will not be as bloody as I fear.

Ananda · Apr 1, 2022

Capt. Ironpants said:
My question is, how important was that fuel facility? Will it impact Russian operations in any meaningful way?

According to RT (watch it on my Cable last night, as RT not block in here), only two of Oil Tanks directly hit. They shown video of fire fighters try to save the facility. RT claim it is Gazprom commercial facility, this not involve in the 'special' military operation in Ukraine.

Still it's RT claim, thus just like Ukraine media, has to be taken with grain of salt as big sea of azov. Off course it's used in Russian operation in North Front. However I suspect the effect will be minimal even for the North Front.

I do believe this's not false flag, not beneficial on any propaganda benefits for Russian to blown up one of Gazprom facilities. It's just matter of gutsy flying from Ukranian combined with Russian carelessness with luck factor.

Rob c · Apr 2, 2022

Another option has been put forward that I saw on the msn news, that there was a mistake or failing at the depot and that blaming the Ukrainians was a way of covering this up. film and photos are to easy to change or produce to be reliable evidence.

phreeky · Apr 2, 2022

Capt. Ironpants said:
Of course the Ukrainians denied it and of course the Russians know they are lying.

Or Russian's in the military whom are against the war did it. It seems unlikely that 2 crews would be in on it though.

I've long ago ruled out expecting logical decision making from Putin and the Russian military. An excuse/requirement to pivot back towards that region wouldn't be a bad thing for Russia.

Larso66 · Apr 2, 2022

The Bushmasters are not exactly lethal? Their reputation was built on the survival of crewmen when the vehicles encountered mines etc in Afghanistan. The threats in Ukraine, particularly from the air, are far greater. They have a single machine gun mounted on top. Maybe the plan is for them to insert anti-armour teams? Being wheeled - and only four wheels at that - means their mobility will not be guaranteed in the Ukraine environment. My initial thought was that they would be ambulance models, marked as such and frankly, more fitting with Australia's usual style of involvement.

CumbrianRover · Apr 2, 2022

vonnoobie said:
How much of their air defence assets they have taken out is not fully known nor is it fully known how much Ukraine actually had in the first place as while originally they had X amount in service they were also in process of fixing up and rushing every bit of old and forgotten bit of gear they could.

Helicopters flying very low to the ground at night would make chance of radar detection very low as they can fly below that and an airborne radar capable to detecting them would have to come from an AEW&C type of asset which Russia has few of if my memory serves me while visually to average civilian they could think its RuAF and RuAF pilots trying to see them at night low on the ground? Good luck.

Who said they refueled? A Mil Mi-24 has a 450km odd range and from Kharkiv to Belgorod is about 72km in a straight line. So more then enough capacity in range to get their and back and perform what ever diversions needed to achieve operational success.

As for the camerca, Every man and his dog has a phone with a camerca these days, In a City of new 400,000 after hearing loud explosions how hard is it to believe a couple people where able to get some footage? Not very hard at all.

Thank you for the considered reply, much appreciated.

oldsig127 · Apr 2, 2022

Larso66 said:
My initial thought was that they would be ambulance models, marked as such and frankly, more fitting with Australia's usual style of involvement.

When we were asked specifically for Bushmasters, my thought was that Ukraine was seeking Trojan Horses.

NOT in the sense that they be filled with soldiers to jump out once Russia had hauled them into their headquarters as war booty, but in the sense that they'd represent the *first * armoured vehicles given to Ukraine by a friendly nation. Then....

"If Australia can give us what we asks, why not YOU?"

Zelensky is a very canny operator in the PR field.

oldsig

(and as PMVs go, they are good at their job, so not useless so may be a small assistance)

ngatimozart · Apr 2, 2022

There are claims by American media that President Biden has authorised US help in the transfer of Soviet tanks from third parties to Ukraine. This is a new and timely development. U.S. Will Help Transfer Soviet-Made Tanks to Ukraine - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Whether this will eventually apply to aircraft is another story.

There are also reports of Russian military personnel refusing orders and destroying their own equipment. Ukraine war: Russian soldiers refusing orders, sabotaging equipment - UK spy chief - NZ Herald How factual this is I don't know but we have seen evidence of bad discipline and Russian troops abandoning serviceable equipment on the battlefield.

South Ossetia has decided that it wants to be incorporated into the Russian Motherland. Russia-Ukraine war: South Ossetia region of Georgia announces plans to join Russia - NZ Herald This will create some more problems in the region.

Feanor · Apr 2, 2022

Update.

Around Kiev.

Russian troops have withdrawn from Gostomel'.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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