The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The war began with a Russian attempt to kill or capture Zelensky.
I think the agreement was made around the time, possibly as part of, the negotiations over the Istanbul Accords. While that agreement* fell through, I suspect that some boundaries were set during this time. I also wouldn't be surprised if a third party, like the USA, was involved in that conversation. It needn't have been a heads of state agreement, it's something that could have been agreed at contacts between the intelligence agencies, or something else along those lines.

That having been said, perhaps my memory is rusty. Other then the general fact of starting the war, was there a specific incident where Russia tried to take out Zelensky?

EDIT: *That agreement being the Istanbul Accords.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Ukrainians said that this is a fact. Americans said that there is an understanding that while the drop-in-bucket generals are fair game, higher ups are expected to be not touched. I would have to find my post here on the subject from… a couple of years ago, perhaps? The comment was made after another general assassination in Russia, if I recall correctly.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I tired, but cannot find either of my two posts on the subject. Surely some still remember the discussion.

As for the assassination attempts on Zelensky… we have zero credible evidence for any of it ever happening. Here is how the Wiki page starts its article on the subject:

According to Ukrainian government officials and news sources, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has survived dozens of assassination and kidnapping attempts by Russian or pro-Russian agents during the Russo-Ukrainian war, including at least three that were foiled by Ukrainian security services.

More “details” on the first one:

According to the Ukrainian government, in early February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin instructed Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov to eliminate Ukrainian leaders. In early March, Ukraine intelligence said that Chechen commandos sent to assassinate Zelenskyy had been "eliminated", with help from FSB agents sympathetic to Ukraine.

The usual rubbish in the likes of the Ghost of Kyiv, Snake Island, and the like. I would bet a good amount of money that the episode described above had never happened. I mean it is laughable. Also, remember an engineer from the Alabuga factory (Geran production site) who was also sympathetic to Ukraine packing secrete notes into (one-way, meant for destruction!) Geran UAVs for the Ukrainians to find, which they, of course, did. I mean this isn’t even good enough for a joke to be funny. Furthermore, imagine Putin instructing Kadyrov, of all people, to kill Zelensky. Again, nonsense.

Same goes for the following:

In February 2022, Redut PMC was ordered on a covert mission in the Kyiv region to infiltrate and eliminate the political leadership and the Ukrainian Secret Service, by storming those institutions. More than one thousand fighters entered the Kyiv region for this purpose, however the mission failed due to the Ukrainian government having prior intel regarding the plan, resulting in Redut losing up to 90% of their fighting force.

“By storming those institutions”… why losing 90% and not 100%? And this is in time when a whole bunch of Ukrainians were shot, along with other people, including westerners, by other armed Ukrainians, including civilians and armed forces, for suspicion of being collaborators, the very “Redut” infiltrators, in simple confusion, etc. people must have forgotten the early days of this thing and the claims made.

Overall, all these stories are like child-level fantasies that for whatever reason are taken as facts by many people. It’s crazy stuff, no? Podolyak said that some Chechens came to kill Zelensky (as well as himself, probably) and it is the god-honest truth and fact for many. just like the rest of the stories through out this conflict. How come no one (or less people?) believes Putin and co’s stories? It is literally the same thing. But I digress and to each their own, I guess.

The closest we got to the “assassination”, in a documented event, was when Russia hit Odesa in 2024 when Zelensky was meeting the Greek PM. As I recall, one of the Greek officials said that the missile hit 150 metres away from where the two were meeting and they were getting into the cars when it happened. That obviously wasn’t “another” assassination attempt, but it kind of tells you all you need to know about the capabilities of RU to strike and UA to defend the precious asset, no? Big words from Zelensky were along the lines of “Russia does not control its forces” due to where and when the strike took place.


Humour on the subject, the “feed” in Twitter that I never do (I only read those that I follow (or where it gets me), but these were the first two consecutive posts before I switched, from a few days ago). This is next level stuff, really, but a great representation of social media in general. Note the amount of “likes”, views, and reposts - this is how echo-chambers work.

IMG_3365.jpeg


Edit: googled the Odesa strike mentioned above:

"It hit in a couple of hundred of meters (about 300 feet) from us, while the meeting was going," a source said.

The source also added that this was "the closest call ever," excluding Zelenskyy's trips to visit troops on the front lines.



So this “source” says that there probably go your assassination attempt theories; in particular, the one where Zelensky said that people were killed in the presidential office (see the Wiki page cited above). Remember he also said (on live US TV, NBC, as I recall) that the Russians are cutting babies’ heads off?




Edit 2: I was wrong about the “babies’” heads off. It was “children’s”. In my post from November 2023:

Zelensky’s interview at NBC:


Did he just say that the Russians cut heads off children? Yes, yes he did.
I haven’t rewatched it, but I remember zero reaction from the reporter when he said that, beyond already concerned eyebrows and whatnot.

More from the same (my) post/(his) interview from over two years ago now:

I am not really sure what he is thinking. The ten-point peace plan he keeps bringing up has no relevance to anything of what is going on. He keeps talking about Russia attacking the NATO countries after they “kill all Ukrainians” and Americans having to bring their troops to the fight, of which Russia has no geopolitical or otherwise interest. Neither do they have the capabilities. He keeps denying the corruption that his office is accused of (see the article cited in my previous post). And so on. He talks about questionable 5% GDP growth after the country lost about 50% the year prior. He says he is OK with confiscating the Russian assets abroad without any regard for international and internal legal consequences. He then talks about the $40 billion gap they have in their budget that needs to be filled and says that if the money isn’t donated they would be OK with loans that they would repay after the war. That would be a $40 billion loan in just one year for a country with $160 or so billion GDP. Any reasonable person should realize that the repayment is at the very best questionable. Furthermore, Russia will never let Ukraine prosper if they do not come to terms. This isn’t happening. He also talks about having a frozen conflict in Donbas since 2014-15 and blames Russians for the accords falling apart, while earlier admitting himself that he/Ukraine was never going to follow through on any of it because that was not in their interests. Then he says that they defeated the Russian Black Sea fleet. Just a collection of rubbish, really.

Crazy stuff, right? Some perspective for where we were and where we are. I guess should they were and they are.


I’ll allow myself the third edit since a blast from the past is the theme here:

I know everyone is still waiting for this forecast from March of 2022 to materialize:

IMG_3363.jpeg

Crazy stuff, right? Good luck with that, I guess. Robin Brooks is a solid and very knowledgeable economist with experience in both, the industry and academia, by the way (really, no joke - being in charge of the FX trading at Goldman is no joke at all). Alas…
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
No fourth edit because the post above looks awfully long as it is. In regard to that NBC interview, one needs to remember that it was given at the very end of the “great counteroffensive” that really ended 4.5 months prior or a few weeks after it began. It has been over two years since, he is talking about the exact same stuff, when his position is A LOT worse than it was back in that November. Russia “really” started moving on the ground a few months past that interview and accelerating ever since. All the guy got is secure €90B “loan” that is (not even remotely) enough for the next two years from now.

In the meantime, we found out recently, like a few days ago, that the UA uber-successful campaign on the RU oil infrastructure and shadow fleet is basically being orchestrated and directed by the US (who would have thought?).


Or via the archive:


Long article worth reading.

I will probably comment more on the article later, but the overall picture that a reasonable person would see from all these combined reports over the past few years is that Ukraine is not capable of inflicting any significant harm on Russia on its own. It appears that at this point any “successful story” has someone else standing behind and I have a “suspicion” that operations like the Spiderweb and everything else a few levels below has someone else behind the planning and execution, namely the US. This just begs to be a rational conclusion at this point. All the UA appears to be capable on their own is some questionable burning of a MChS (read FEMA) helicopter executed by teenagers they found online who usually end up in Russian jails. Likely an (over) exaggeration on my part, but seems like a fairly reasonable conclusion.

At the same time, another conclusion that begs to be called is that the Americans are “fucking with Russia”, for the lack of a better term and not the other way around as it is always suggested.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The situation in Kupyansk remains complex, though it's clarified somewhat. There is still Russian control in a narrow strip along the Oskol river, and in the north-eastern part of Kupyansk. On the other hand Russia has begun a counter-attack north of Kupyansk pushing back all the way to the R-79 road, recapturing the northern half of Kondrashovka and even entering Tischenkovka. This suggests that Ukrainian control here was fairly weak to begin with. I suspect in general there are much larger grey zones in Kupyansk then the maps reflect and I wouldn't be surprised if isolated groups of Russian soldiers exist behind what are nominally Ukrainian front lines. However this doesn't mean Russia is re-establishing control of Kupyansk. Quite the opposite, Russia is at their lowest point of confirmed area of control since Ukraine's counter-attacks began and it's still distinctly possible that they will lose all of Kupyansk. Note I'm going off the Suriyakmaps front lines here, other maps disagree, even ones often closely aligned with Suriyak.

Other notable facts, Ukraine has launched a series of counter-attacks across the Gaychur river, penetrating fairly deep into Russian positions, but no confirmed consolidation at this time. This comes even as Russia continues to try and expand their area of control west and north-west of Gulyaypole.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ukraine decided to put a nail in the coffin of their economy:

IMG_3426.jpeg

I actually greatly appreciate the gesture to have Mrs Freeland out of our government. The only regret is that they didn’t take her sooner. Good luck to her in her new endeavours! For those that are not familiar with the lady, she had held positions of Minister of International Trade, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Finance, Deputy Prime Minister, among others, all in the Trudeau government. Everyone can see how Canada has been faring during that time. This is not related to politics at all, but the bonkers decision to have her join Zelensky’s government to advice on economic development. Everyone can also check out her achievements in attracting investment (divestment is more appropriate) to our country. I don’t even want to talk about the “economic transformations” she is accountable for. In spite of the posts she held in Canada, she has no qualifications for the role, but, I guess, a face from the government that many officials in the world saw as a clown show… Anyway, whatever works and hope it does.


Big news today from the “Coalition of the Willing”. They actually agreed to sign “an intent” to send some troops to Ukraine. Not many willing, but at least some with the intent. Agreement was also made on the observer (the USA) and the hammer (the USA) to monitor the ceasefire once it takes place.

IMG_3439.jpeg

I have the answer to the first concern at the end of the first paragraph, regrading the clarity of Russian acceptance of the terms under discussion. That answer would be a no, followed by most definitely. I mean is there any doubt about it? Like seriously, does anyone here (or anywhere, including in the room where the talks took place) think that they will accept the “terms under discussion”?

Here is the answer to the other concern in the last paragraph, regarding the leaders moving beyond the theoretical part and sending their armed forces to fight Russians in Ukraine if needed:

IMG_3441.jpeg

Jokes aside, that is probably true. Saw someone also writing today that this is a missed opportunity for the big Euros to offer their entire military capabilities, all they have, in a show of solidarity and unity, to protect Ukraine in case of another Russian invasion knowing fully well that the Russians will reject the proposal.

With some weeks wasted, we will soon move to a few more wasted in talks with the Russians, their rejection and counteroffer and then back to the other side and on we go. I guess this is the plan (for both sides) since there is no reconciliation to be currently had.


Something else I thought about today after reading another “axis” opinion piece (won’t cite the article as it is not worth the time to read). So the popular conjecture (or one of them, rather) is that North Korea is/was fighting in Europe, which could only be bolded and font increased to scream at you more than it does otherwise every time someone mentions it. Yes, that is true, North Korean troops were fighting in Europe, they were fighting in the European part of Russia. At the same time, when the same people (quite literally) talk about security guarantees for, or security architecture in, to be more precise, Europe, they completely ignore the fact that Russia is actually Europe and there is no European security architecture without Russia, the biggest European country.

The current war involves Russia first and foremost, as the aggressor and the biggest perceived threat. Russia has concerns that they had expressed and specified as the reasons for them waging the war. At no point so far have I seen an honest attempt to address those concerns. In the grand scheme of things, the entire situation reminds me of this thread: Russia has concerns -> but they are nonsense and should be disregarded or not taken seriously. So my take here is that this war will continue until a) these concerns are seriously addressed (regardless of what anyone believes in - if this is a fairy tale, it should be reasonably easy to address) or b) Russia is defeated, as many dream of, on the battlefield -> made to accept the terms. Nothing will change until one of the two happens (Russian victory is another option, but I am afraid a bigger war may (probably would) take place before that happens in order to prevent exactly that).

Going all the way to months before the invasion in 2022, there was never a real attempt to address these concerns presented and prevent the war. We are now years into the bloody affair and everyone still stands their ground, double-, triple-, whatever multiple, downed. Weird stuff. Especially weird because this war is not about some ideology that is impossible to resolve, clearly not a conquest (whatever anyone says, there is no rationale behind paying the price for some land that no one really needs, but the people that live on it). To me, this is very bizarre. But anyway…
 

Hoover

Member
there is no rationale behind paying the price for some land that no one really needs, but the people that live on it). To me, this is very bizarre. But anyway…
War never makes sense...until one side is willing to fight one. And "some land no one really needs" is a bit naive.
Russia sees it as Russian soil (which it clearly is not) and Ukraine doesn´t want to give land because if you start to give your own soil to a dictator he won´t stop demanding more.

If you follow the politics between Russia and Urkaine, since 1991 the Russian demanded half of Ukraine and talk about war since 2001 against Ukraine. They only signed the different treaties regarding the borders of the Ukaine because they needed western money due to their catastrophic economy. Without acknowledge of the souvereignity of Ukraine Russia wouldn´t get the 3 tranches of billions of Dollar to keep Russia alive. That is a reason why the US, UK and France gave so weak guarantees to Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum. They knew Russia will attack Ukaine sooner or later and nobody wants to risk a war with Russia.
 
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