The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It would make more sense to land Australian C-17s with Bushmasters in Poland and then drive them into Ukraine.
My point exactly.

While not keen to get into the political situation lets just say the current government is Ultra invested in being military capable. Our minister on being the hard man of defence. The drama around AUKUS/French subs and dropping under performing euro gear Tiger and NH90 gives some indication of that.

Also Australia reads this whole situation differently. This has nothing to do really about Europe and Russia, every thing is seen through the China lens. Australia wants to set a standard of what is possible if asked, no matter how much pressure is applied from elsewhere.. A middle power, that is outside of NATO, threatened by a larger power. This applies to Australia and our interests (say Singapore, Indonesia, Pacific, Vietnam, Philippines). We want to demonstrate to the world, to China, to others our commitment and capability, above and beyond what ever other allies deem possible.

Regarding not being able to do much to retaliate. Certainly Australia would want options. If it is to make the delivery, I wouldn't completely rule out other Australian aircraft making a trip to Europe. We have 24 Superhornets/11 Growlers, we 48 F-35 operational, E7's, all the toys. Doesn't mean flying in, but could mean deterring.

It doesn't mean C17 flying into Kyiv, on a nice high profile, and a red carpet parade.

If Belarus/Russia wants to pick a war with Australia, well, we will see. From Australia's point of view, seems like better option than losing all credibility globally and its its region, and having to fight a war with China. As a hypothetical discussion, Australia could probably degrade Belarus's air defence capability pretty quickly. Not sure how Belarus would get trying to throw a punch at Australia. I think we have the largest F-35 air force outside of the US currently. Do we operate more 5th gen platforms than China + Russia combined?

If we won't come to the aid of someone who requests, it, why would someone come to our aid. I cannot stress to others what that concept is extreme importance to Australians.

While I admit its all unlikely, I am saying Australian's will see the situation differently. Do not expect European attitudes or even US attitudes to apply. It is this type of thinking, that in say Syria people thought Turkey wouldn't fire on Russian fighters.

What is likely is that Australia will bring all its political and diplomatic pressure to ensure those Bushmasters make it. Everything. They must get delivered, and the clock is ticking. The symbolic language around this is immense.

The PM has set it up as a giant political stunt for a global and domestic audience.
Using Australia's aircraft carriers,, several of which Australia will no doubtedly park off the coastline of Belarus. Some reality in this conversation please. Australia will not go to war with Russia or Belarus without consulting its allies. Polish and US reluctance to hand over Polish MiGs is not just a hot potato. Any Australian involvement would require local logistics and basing. Risking a direct fly into an area Russia openly conducts air combat operations in and has declared off limits is a risk, and Australia could very well be left without military options to respond if it does this without clearing possible escalation scenarios with European and US allies.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Around Kiev.

Destroyed Russian BMD-2, Irpen'.


Destroyed Ukrainian BTR-3 and BRDM-2, Irpen'.


Battle damage to the government financial services institute, Irpen'.


Battle damage, Irpen'. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian SBU Alpha team in Irpen'.


Reports of Ukrainian territorial defense drawing Z's on random destroyed civilian cars and trucks.


A train of Ukrainian 2S3s south of Kiev.


Russian distributing humanitarian aid near Kiev.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Near Kharkov Ukrainian forces were allegedly using armored bank vans to move around, and got hit. It's also possible, with the loose weapons floating around, and someone decided to hit a bank van.


Ukrainian tank officers academy in Kharkov got hit.


Improvised UAVs found inside a private home, near the Russian border.


New Russian land mines found in Kharkov region. Now we know what that remote minelayer was firing.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian National Guard in Melitopol'.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Artillery exchanges continue on the Kherson-Nikolaev axis.


Unconfirmed reports that the GS-13 Pereyaslavl, Ukrainian recon ship, got hit by Russia.


Nikolaev city administration building, damage.


Russian troop column in Kherson.


Russia continues humanitarian aid distribution in Kherson.


A civilian car rammed a military barrier near Odessa. It may have been driving rapidly at night.


Ukrainian service members that were left behind by their units are captured in Kherson.


Russian EOD continue to operate in Kherson.


Russian humanitarian aid in Snegirevka, near Nikolaev.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
LDNR Front.

Rebel forces in Novobakhmutovka and Trotskoe.


Destroyed Ukrainian BTR-3 in Terny, LNR forces near Donetsk region.


Ukrainian vehicles destroyed near Stepnoe and Berezovoe.


Russian Tor-M2 firing and apparently hitting something near Izyum.


LNR artillery firing towards Popasnaya.


Alleged Ukainian Su-27 shot down near Kramatorsk.


Lisichansk fuel storage facility got hit.


Beverage plant in Slavyansk got hit, it was allegedly a staging area for Ukrainian forces.


Ukrainian Tochka hits Lugansk.


Rebel forces in Novoaleksandrovka, recently taken from Ukraine.


Rebel forces in Slavnoe, DNR area, recently taken. There's some footage of rebel tanks in action.


Chechen fighters in Rubezhnoe, firing a series of rocket launchers at an alleged enemy strongpoint.


Ukrainian 35D6 radar abandoned near Svatovo.


Abandoned Ukrainian trucks and munitions near Svatovo.


A rebel tank survives a Korsar ATGM hit.


Russian Su-25 over Donetsk.


Russian forces in rebel lands. This is the second heavy mechanized column we see, and this time with MBTs and SP Arty. It's possible the rebels are running out of steam, and Russian regulars are being inserted to continue the push.


The same BMP-3 column near Volnovakha, that we saw earlier.


Assorted footage, Donbas.


Improvised cemeteries in the yards of Rubezhnoe.


Mariupol'.

Russian marines in Mariupol'. No tiktok here... you can see enemy fire impacting.


Similar footage of Russian troops assaulting the Azov base in Mariupol'. Allegedly Russian Marines.


Rebel T-72B firing at... something. Mariupol'.


I think Russian Marines in Mariupol'.


What I think are rebel infantry going door to door in Mariupol', and telling civilians to come out.


Russian or likely rebel artillery (2S1s) firing leaflets into Azovstal, Mariupol'.


Destroyed BMP Mariupol'. Identity and context unclear though it's claimed as either Russian or rebel since it was allegedly taken out by "nazi fires".


Destroyed Ukrainian military vehicles near the natal care unit of a Mariupol' medical facility. Note, the facility was hit by a Russian strike, leading to considerable outrage. It's now plausible that the facility was being used as a staging area by Ukrainian forces.


Damaged and destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, Mariupol'.


Satellite imagery of battle damage in Mariupol'.


Battle damage in Mariupol'.


Russian National Guard at the Satellite factory in Mariupol'.


Rebel forces in Mariupol'.


Chinese TV in Mariupol'. Locals say that Ukrainian forces were hiding behind civilian-populated buildings.


The West.

Ukrainian SAM position in Tsirkuny, Kharkov region, got hit. Some are labeled as Malin in Zhitomyr region but I believe these are in error. Note it's likely these positions were hit early in the war, and only now Russian troops arrived on site.


Khmel'nitskaya region fuel storage facilities got hit.


Klevan', Rovno area, fuel storage got hit.


Fuel storage in Lutsk got hit.


In Uman', Ukrainian forces are allegedly using a local synagogue as a staging ground.


Misc.

Ukrainian Buk getting hit by a Russian strike.


Ukrainian checkpoint with BMP getting hit. Location and context unclear.


ATGM launch, Russia or rebel, against a Ukrainian alleged machinegun nest.


Allegedly, Bayraktar TB-2 fragments. Location and context unclear.


Russian Pantsyr allegedly firing at a Ukrainian UJ-22 UAV.


Unconfirmed info that Russia has returned some Tochka missiles into service. This might be a sign that Iskander stockpiles are running low.


Russian forces, location and context unclear.


Russian Buk and Nebo-SV airspace control systems operating in Ukraine. Likely in the north near Kharkov or Chernigov. They allegedly shot down two Bayraktars. Note the video commentary claims it's a Buk-M3, but it's clearly not. It's a M1 or older in my opinion, based on the TELARs radar.


Chechen forces are apparently using the PSRL-1 RPG clone from the US. How they got it is curious. Also why.


Colonel-general Chayko handing out awards to Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Location unknown. Chayko is the commander of East MD, so this is likely the northern axis.


Ukrainian T-72AMT captured, being evacuated likely to Russia for studies.


Ukrainian BMP-2, knocked out.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Guys I'm about 24 hours behind the curve on posting updates. I still haven't gotten caught up. I'll try to get caught up tomorrow or Saturday. You'll have to bear with me. I see others posting materials from other sources, and I've really enjoyed seeing it. Hopefully others can pick up some of my slack.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Using Australia's aircraft carriers,, several of which Australia will no doubtedly park off the coastline of Belarus. Some reality in this conversation please. Australia will not go to war with Russia or Belarus without consulting its allies. Polish and US reluctance to hand over Polish MiGs is not just a hot potato. Any Australian involvement would require local logistics and basing. Risking a direct fly into an area Russia openly conducts air combat operations in and has declared off limits is a risk, and Australia could very well be left without military options to respond if it does this without clearing possible escalation scenarios with European and US allies.
I understand what you are saying.

But the PM has explicitly said they will fly there, and they will be useable (ie actually delivered into Ukraine). Not sit aimlessly somewhere in Europe with our thoughts and prayers and a back log of gear that can't go anywhere. In the tone of the PM he did make it sound they will be flying into down town Ukraine. He mentioned C17's specifically.

Australia has lots of strategic lift in Europe currently, more than NATO's own Strategic Airlift Capability (which is a mere 3 C17). This is currently based at European airfields. It is entirely possible to envisage some sort of fast air capability deployment to Europe, particularly something like the growlers which can basically operate from NATO airspace for their mission.

Our PM has just staked his personal and parties political survival on his commitment to fulfilling his Ukraine commitment and its actual delivery into Ukraine. Weeks out from an election.

I don't know, maybe AUKUS to the rescue, the UK has also promise Armored vehicles, but it was not clear why type or how they would get there. We are delivering 70,000t of coal to Ukraine.

looking at List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

It isn't really clear to me which other nations are actually delivering military vehicles into the Ukraine since the start of the war. Given the MiG hot potato, I would have thought a column of tanks or armored vehicles driving in through Poland would create a similar level of tension? No?
 

CumbrianRover

New Member
There is total bipartisan support from Australia on this. Genuinely.

Russia is an economic competitor with Australia in coal, gas, wheat etc. So there are actual tangible economic benefits for Australia resulting from all this pressure on Russia. Also Australia is immune to threats from Russia of nuclear attack.. Good luck launching those nukes over China, North Korea, in the general direction of India and Japan, to hit widely spaced out targets at the very edge of their capability. It isn't even credible nuclear posturing. There is nothing Russia can do economically threaten that China isn't already doing or has tried to do. And again, China is going to escalate what with Australia on behalf of Russia? Greens and lefties are worried about the humanitarian issue and its a plea on behalf of an elected government.

There will be much pride in they asked for Australian bushmasters. It will also tangibly show the benefit of having a local capability.

Its one of those few things that just lines every thing, everyone, every political belief all in a straight line.

If we are flying C17's into Ukraine, are we escorting them with F-35's? It would make for a dramatic hand over to do it that way. Maybe do a low C17 flyby on the way out through the CBD of a Ukrainian city? With F-35 doing the same on after burners. Ok its maybe 3 Bushmasters on a plane, but think of the posturing. It would be on the news of every channel everywhere on the world that evening.

The rest we could ask Dutch and UK to give up a few of those already in Europe and put them on a ship and take them there in ~ a week. Australia can then replace this stock in a few months.

Gotta help out those struggling western European economies, like the UK and Netherlands..
Well, could you send some Leopards as well then, oh, and of those F18s you're retiring.

:)
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well, could you send some Leopards as well then, oh, and of those F18s you're retiring.

:)
The Old F-18 are all gone unfortunately, now part of the Mighty NATO Canadian Airforce. The 8 left are being made for static displays (ie gutted). As of December 2021 Australia is all F-35 combat planes (+ growler and SH strike). Tears and tributes flow as Classic Hornet leaves the nest
The old Leopards are also all gone, what is left is welded shut static displays.
The FFG's Poland was interested in are now inservice with Chilean navy.

I believe the real ask of Australia was not the armored vehicles, but the delivery of them.
 

QEDdeq

Member
As I see it from the outside, grain of salt etc... Australia's move is aimed mainly at their own public to boost the government's image. I don't know how much it will help Ukraine considering that China is closely watching and could use this as a reason for finding more ways to support Russia economically and politically.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
How did this happen?? If this is real, then this is pathetic from the Russians
Seems So. Pro Russian twitter also confirm that.


How's that happen ? I guess combination of gutsy low flying by Ukrainian all the way from their base, plus some Russian careless control ?

Read from Russian and Chinese online sources, Russian has shoot down Ukranian Su-24 try to sneak in to Russian Air Space in the vicinities before. Perhaps they are not expecting Ukranian dare to gamble sending Mi-24 for this.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
The Old F-18 are all gone unfortunately, now part of the Mighty NATO Canadian Airforce. The 8 left are being made for static displays (ie gutted). As of December 2021 Australia is all F-35 combat planes (+ growler and SH strike). Tears and tributes flow as Classic Hornet leaves the nest
The old Leopards are also all gone, what is left is welded shut static displays.
The FFG's Poland was interested in are now inservice with Chilean navy.

I believe the real ask of Australia was not the armored vehicles, but the delivery of them.
I was thinking the same thing. There are possibly a couple of hundred Bushmasters available, probably a lot of other gear as well, but getting them to the Ukraine is a huge ask. The Russians are struggling to just drive trucks across the border and here we are trying to bring them in from the other side of the planet.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
I was thinking the same thing. There are possibly a couple of hundred Bushmasters available, probably a lot of other gear as well, but getting them to the Ukraine is a huge ask. The Russians are struggling to just drive trucks across the border and here we are trying to bring them in from the other side of the planet.
The ask wasn't an accident.
The pm committing to delivery was also not an accident.
4 x c17s in Europe isn't an accident. They won't be sitting idle.

There are plenty of armoured transports in Europe.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Why poke others in the eye? If the idiot of a PM wants the RAAF to send C-17s directly into Ukraine, they better have some fighter cover with lots of ISR on the airport 48 hours before touch down. Don’t think Poland will look kindly on supporting RAAF fighters flying sorties into Ukraine.


It would make more sense to land Australian C-17s with Bushmasters in Poland and then drive them into Ukraine.
And indeed, the "idiot of a PM" never suggested flying them all the way into Ukraine, but into Europe rather than shipping them which is too slow. Take enough press halfwits looking for sensations and an opposition looking for points just before an election and...

BTW, in Senate Estimates this and other questions were asked intending no more than to make the Department look foolish. "Three, maybe four Bushmasters" (per C-17) became a risible three or four (in total) in the deliberate misunderstanding of Senator Wong

Yes, I watched it. No, I'll never get that wasted half hour of my life back

oldsig
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Rzeszow airport is about an hour's drive from the nearest crossing of the Poland-Ukraine border, & it's well set up for military freighter flights. It's been busy for weeks, e.g. Turkish A400Ms carrying Bayraktar UAVs, A400Ms of other air forces, RAF & USAF C-17s . . .
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ttlmeh
Ukrainian S-300 being taken taken out, I think this is the 4th confirmed video of destroyed S-300s in the last 6 days.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ttnw66
A salvo of Iskanders. If this is recent, possible retaliation against the Belgorod attack perhaps. This is the biggest recorder salvo of guided missiles Ihave seen launched from land. The second biggest was the land based P-800 Oniks, 2 weeks ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ttp4bh First confirmed downing of an Mi-28
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
WIth Russia getting several large hits on S-300 and Buk systems recently. Will we finally see the RAF conducting high altitude attacks? The Russians no longer have a pretense of this being a special operation and dont care about launching missile salvos into populated areas. Will the RAF finally show their capabilities?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
WIth Russia getting several large hits on S-300 and Buk systems recently. Will we finally see the RAF conducting high altitude attacks? The Russians no longer have a pretense of this being a special operation and dont care about launching missile salvos into populated areas. Will the RAF finally show their capabilities?
The RAF is the Royal Air Force (UK). If you want to use the correct terminology and usage, the Russian Air Force is either RuAF or VVS. In future please use the correct abbreviations because it saves a lot of confusion.
 

phreeky

Active Member
But the PM has explicitly said they will fly there, and they will be useable (ie actually delivered into Ukraine).
There is no way they are being flown directly in. They'll no doubt do as all of the other C-17s, A-400s and C-130s have done and drop equipment in Poland to be driven across. Possibly with some kind of basic training/handover process in Poland.

TBH I'm more confused by them asking for Bushmasters, for a few reasons:
- Are there not enough similar vehicles in Europe already that would suit?
- Would they actually be of much benefit? Would they be more effective as things become more urbanised?
- How well suited are they to cold weather? They frequent the northern parts of Australia, particularly North Queensland, and I've not seen them operate in cold climates before. However I assume with the British and Dutch operating some that they've been trialled in various conditions. i.e. are the tyres they run of acceptable performance in the cold?
 

Soldier25

New Member
Today, two Ukrainian MI-24 helicopters flew into Russian airspace and attacked an oil depot in Belgorod. It was difficult to spot the helicopters because they were flying at an ultra-low altitude, the oil storage was hit by unguided S-8 missiles. Strong fire breaks out at oil depot in Belgorod


Uran-6 robots delivered by Russia to Ukraine. Robot "Uran-6" - an armored robotic tracked vehicle, began to destroy mines and other explosive objects in Ukraine and Donbass, without endangering the life and health of people. Despite its size, Uran-6 is capable of towing even a 40-ton tank. The main task of the sapper robot is to make passages in minefields and quickly clear mine areas. The cleanliness of minesweeping is about 95%.


Continuous fire from RPGs on the Armed Forces of Ukraine was carried out by Russian fighters of the unit of the National Guard of the Chechen Republic

 
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