The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There are also reports of Russian military personnel refusing orders and destroying their own equipment. Ukraine war: Russian soldiers refusing orders, sabotaging equipment - UK spy chief - NZ Herald How factual this is I don't know but we have seen evidence of bad discipline and Russian troops abandoning serviceable equipment on the battlefield.
Is there a way to bypass the paywall?

South Ossetia has decided that it wants to be incorporated into the Russian Motherland. Russia-Ukraine war: South Ossetia region of Georgia announces plans to join Russia - NZ Herald This will create some more problems in the region.
This is not news. S. Ossetia wants to join N. Ossetia as part of Russia. This contrasts with Abkhazia who is perfectly happy to be independent.
 

Rock the kasbah

Active Member
This doesn't seem likely. They sky over Ukraine is closed. Flying over it risks direct engagement. By far the likeliest scenario is a flight to Poland, followed by ground transport from there.



Is it a btln though? I can't help but wonder. We see a lot of the same faces. Could it be a group of "highborn" Chechens who are relatives of the authorities and whose military service is borderline fictional, but who are showing off? It makes little sense to send additional Chechen fighters to Ukraine if they are of no military value. Given how often I see the same faces I can't help but wonder if a small group of golden boys is f*cking around, while the real Chechen National Guard isn't posting any photos or videos for obvious reason and is engaged in clearing the city. At the end of the day, Mariupol' is getting cleared, block by block.
Totally agree with you
Who's looking after mariopol? I think it's the azov brigade
Money well spent
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

From all the map on the Ukrane war front development, I always like to see what the French Defense Ministry shown. French more realistic in nature to shown development, compared to US or UK. Sometimes it even shown in their media.

Basically it shown that Russian retreating on Kyiev/Kviy front, however put more resources on East. The offensive in East is increasing in tempo, and that's where Russian increase the resources.

Basically it is in line with what Russian put on as their changes focus. They want East of Ukraine, as that's where the main Ukranian Army is (this JFO). Whether Kyiv ever been one of their main focus, can be debeatable and I believe will be discussed by many analysts after this. However the East is always being one of their focus from beginning.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
It's six of one and half a dozen of the other. I've noticed the French maps are very bright-line - this is Russian and this is Ukrainian. There's not really any indication of areas that are disputed or not securely held.

I think the maps that show areas of Russian advance compared to territory they actually hold are more helpful. To me they give an indication where Russia has moved fowards but not necessarily created secure supply lines. If you take the French map there is no possibility of encirclement - is that really the case?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
If you take the French map there is no possibility of encirclement - is that really the case?
The French talking on tactical changing position. They talk on Russian Tactical retreat in Kyiv Front, and Tactical reinforcement in Donbas area.

The blue arrow, is Ukraine movement, red arrow Russian movement. Blue line is defensive or holding possition. The way I see it (comparing from previous days map), in Kyiev front the red line from day to day slightly retreating, and by yesterday shown red arrow going to Belarus border. However still red line and bombardment in Kyiev area.

So when they say tactical retreating, seems they shown in the map Russian begin to pull away but keep retreating defensive line and bombardment to cover the retreating line. Those only in Kyiv area.

In East they shown Russian moving big time, even shown Red Line moving to West Donentsk front from Mariupol direction. Shown they are more or less finishing in Mariupol, and the resources there begin to be send converging on West Donentsk.

They shown red line toward Zaporizhye city from the rest Zaporizhye Oblast Russian hold. Thus just like in Donbas (Donentsk and Luhansk), French map shown Russian begin to move toward Zaporizhye City from their holding possition. I suspect this is the units from Crimea.

On Kherson-Nikolayev Oblast there are red line there, shown Russian Holding Ground, while blue arrow toward Russian hold area, shown Ukraine try to do some offensive. Interestingly in southern Nikolayev, there's blue arrow but toward blue line. Indicating Ukraine move but to build defensive line. So French practically say standstill confrontation in area of Kherson oblast and Nikolayev Oblast.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
I don't know, to me it still resembles the sort of map a child would make with a continuous line because it's too hard to do what Miss said about showing disputed areas and unsecured territory. Not to suggest the French Ministry of Defence is staffed by children or the person who produced the map is being unprofessional, I just think it's overly simplistic.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
For me it is the map to shown big picture. Not map to shown overall movement in the ground. I do believe French knows how the movement in the ground, as much as US and UK. However they shown big picture only for the public.

I watch their map day to day. So any changes in their map, means it is big movement. Seems French did not want to mention small movement. This is shown Russian clearly changes their movement toward the goals in the East and around Crimea.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
It hardly shows the big picture when it makes out that they 'control' vast swaths of territory when for the most part they barely venture off of the main roads. Frankly IMO wikipedia gives a better picture of whats going on then the map the French release and thats saying so knowing im likely to get the admins kicking me up the back side for saying anything nice about wiki lmao.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Well anyone when looking to map on the Ukrainian War has preference toward what they believe happen in the ground. For me, French Map still shown big pictures only. As I do believe the French actually knows where the main Ukrainian and Russian possition.

As talking Russian not venturing then the main roads debeatable. Perhaps in some area they are not doing that. However its also not shown in that area the Ukranian also still there.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some interesting analysis of the Russian retreat from areas around Kyiv. If correct it looks like some Russian units are or will shortly be surrounded, with no obvious option other than to surrender or try to make a run for the retreating Russian lines.

This seems unlikely. Russia signaled their withdrawal in advance. It's quite likely that there is a pre-arranged withdrawal line to which they are going. They entered Slavutich recently, and had a whole negotiating session with the mayor. It's possible that's how far back they'll go. I don't see why they would leave units behind to be surrounded.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Around Kiev.

Footage of Russian Marines operating near Kiev.


Swedish AT-4 captured near Kiev.


Georgian fighters near Kiev.


A civilian car near Kiev was shot up, allegedly by Ukrainian forces. The car contained a woman and her daughter. They made it to Russian lines. Note, there appears to be a pattern of civilian vehicles being fired upon by Ukrainian forces when moving across checkpoints towards Russian or rebel lines. It's unclear why exactly.


Belgorod, Russia.

More footage of the damage to the fuel storage in Belgorod. Reportedly the helos fired at a few other targets on their way in.


A printer's office in Belgorod was hit by an S-8 rocket strike. The likeliest scenario is another helo raid.


A Ukrainian missile went down near Belgorod, leaving a crater.


The North.

Ukrainian engineers column got hit near Chernigov.


Kharkov-Sumy-Poltava.

Russian artillery impacts in Zhukovskoe near Kharkov.


Ukrainian air defenses firing, Poltava.


Destroyed agricultural facility, near Kharkov.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Allegedly a Russian strike against a fuel storage facility in Dnepropetrovsk.


Russian National Guard scattering protests in Energodar.


Unconfirmed reports of another POW exchange. Allegedly Ukraine returned 86 service members, 15 of them female.


Pole taping, Dnepropetrovsk.


In Cherkasy region, a priest of the Russian Orthodox Church was attacked in church. Details are lacking.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian Bastion launch at a target in Ukraine.


Russian security forces continue operating in Kherson.


LDNR Front.

Impacts of fires near Mar'inka.


Rubezhnoe is still getting shelled by Ukrainian forces. The rebels took the town, many civilians are still trapped in it. Some are being evacuated by rebel forces.


Rebels captured a T-64BV intact near Severo-Donetsk. They report that the radio was removed by Ukrainian forces and the set up is for some sort of "NATO" radio (i.e. foreign) and the regular tank radio won't work there. It's probably a T-64BV mod'17.


Footage from near Izyum.


Russian troops crossing the Severniy Donets river near Izyum.


Su-25s over Donetsk.


Russian EOD in LNR lands.


The mayor of Rubezhnoe is speaking out against Ukraine.


Mariupol'.

Rebel tank firing at something, context unclear.


Chechen fighters evacuating a wounded soldier.


Russian film crew apparently comes under fire, as they attempt to approach Ukrainian positions at Azovstal'.


Strikes at Azovstal'. The 2-3rd videos allegedly show the destruction of Grads.


The Il'yich metallurgical plant in Mariupol', getting hit, as part of the current fighting. It's likely Ukrainian fighters are holed up inside.


Destroyed BTR-70M in Mariupol', certainly Russian-sourced, possibly provided to the rebels.


Battle damage in Mariupol'.


A rebel or Russian tank penetrated by an RPG but the crew survived and the tank appears to still be operational.


Russian National Guard in Mariupol'.


DNR forces using a captured Varta armored car, Mariupol'.


Russian Mi-24P near Mariupol'.


Satellite image of the sunken Russian landing ship in Berdyansk. The port facility appears to be intact.


Locals in Mariupol' claiming Ukrainian forces destroyed their homes.


Interview with a civilian that was in the Mariupol' maternity hospital that got hit by a strike. She reports that another maternity hospital (Maternity Hospital 1) was taken by Ukrainian forces for military purposes because it had solar panels on the roof, providing power. She also mentions that the strike was done by artillery. She mentions Ukrainian forces being in and around her hospital (Maternity Hospital 2) several times but it's unclear if they were in there on a permanent basis.


400 civilians were found hiding in one large shelter in Mariupol'.


The West.

Reports that the Kremenchug oil refinery is burning. Presumably a Russian strike.


Fires burn in Khmel'nitskaya region.


Misc.

Russian strikes, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian column got hit. Location and context unclear.


Russian Mi-28N went down in Ukraine, the crew allegedly survived. Note it was paired up with a Ka-52. This is becoming a pattern. The Mi-28N lost it's entire tail.


Russian Ka-52 with battle damage.


Destroyed T-64BV, allegedly Ukrainian, location and context unclear.


Destroyed MT-LBs, allegedly Ukrainian, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian T-64BV survives ATGM impact, location and context unclear.


Russian troop columns in Ukraine, location and context unclear.


Russian comms unit in Ukraine, location and context unclear.


Russian field kitchens in Ukraine.


NATO/EU.

Germany has green-lit the transfer of 56 BMP-1s, ex-GDR, from the Czech republic to Ukraine.

 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
This seems unlikely. Russia signaled their withdrawal in advance.
Yes, but did the Kremlin ensure commanders on the ground were told with enough time to organise an orderly withdrawal? Putin may originally not wanted a withdrawal and just talked about it to try to slow sanctions, only later understanding it was militarily necessary.

And did commanders on the ground give the leaders of specific formations detailed plans as to how and when to withdraw? And were those leaders able to get through to individual units with those plans, especially without letting the Ukrainians know in case they set traps/ambushes?

We will see in the coming days, but at this point I have no reason to believe Russia will definitely be able to retreat without leaving people behind due to poor organisation. They could do it, but why assume they will?
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
It's one of the better known and reliable resource for keeping tabs of combat losses.Has been.quoted by various members in this thread.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
High-quality footage of the battle damage inside Hostomel Airport filmed by Dymtro Antonov, the Captain of the Myra. Very extensive damage, nothing left unscathed.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
There are of course many different claims on tank numbers involved and even types Reading this article suggests definitive numbers available to Russia and type ,Is this article accurate in the types of tanks deployed as a representation of Russia using its most updated tanks?
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
The Biden administration has announced plans to mediate Russian built tanks from other countries to Ukraine,with claims that Ukraine has already added over a hundred captured Russian tanks to its defences ,
Is it possible that if Russia had waited for summer when tanks could have gone off-road without being bogged and started from the east they may not have been in this situation?
 
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