The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Germany to finally prepare more shipments: Germany to ship additional weapons to Ukraine after weeks of stalling – EURACTIV.com
On Wednesday, over a month after Rheinmetall provided its proposal, the defence ministry reportedly green-lighted the procurement of weaponry worth €300 million.

According to information obtained by Süddeutsche Zeitung, the German Federal Security Council will now deliberate the procurement, which consists of various equipment ranging from mortars and rocket launchers to protective vests and helmets.
This was almost a bit funny:
More recently, the defence minister has been embroiled in a controversy surrounding her statement on Monday that Germany would be the “second-largest weapons supplier of Ukraine.”

The defence ministry later had to backpedal, with its spokesperson David Helmbold stating on Wednesday that Germany would only be the second-largest weapons supplier of Ukraine when it comes to the total weight, not the value, of the shipments.
What are they shipping, stone bricks!?
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Germany to finally prepare more shipments: Germany to ship additional weapons to Ukraine after weeks of stalling – EURACTIV.com

This was almost a bit funny:

What are they shipping, stone bricks!?
Yes, a bit funny, and I could not resist a chuckle. I don't want to go too far OT, but can't help but be reminded of some NGO squabbles ref weight vs value in their scrambles for kudos and donations. Water is essential In various humanitarian crisis situations, whether natural (volcano, earthquake, wildfires, etc) or manmade (war, politically-induced health/famine conditions, etc.), but very heavy, and distribution is difficult. It's also obviously cheap, at least at the source end. Food aid and especially hygiene kits are lighter than water but more expensive. As some hygiene kits (usually most expensive form of humanitarian aid at the source, not including transport and distribution) also contain water purification tablets (thus delivering extra bang for the buck with a very light transport and distribution payload), there is sometimes some merit to the "more expensive" argument.

This one is sort of a mirror image of that (with a "please don't nuke us, Mr. Putin" note attached), only the materiel is military rather than humanitarian.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I am sure this will be analysed for years. We don't get to witness these peer contests very often. To watch the Russians basically fail against Western sourced weapons could be indicative of a change in military paradigms. Perhaps tanks are going the way of the battleship or perhaps the Russians just aren't doing it right. Certainly they failed as far as logistics is concerned. They failed to control the skies as well. They were terrible job of communications as well. Maintenance also looked like a disaster. Actually it would probably be quicker just to list what they did right.

Personally I think that the battlefield is just doing what it has always done, it will evolve. New anti-tank weapons will probably result in a change of tactics and improvements in armour. I think more expendable unmanned armoured vehicles will find themselves on the battlefield either complementing or replacing manned systems.

One thing I am certain of is that there will be tens of thousands of hours of analysis going into just about every aspect of this conflict. What they will probably find is not just the failure of a single system like a tank but a cascading failure of just about everything.
Agree, a massive amount of analysis is needed before any conclusions can be determined. One key question is how effective would Trophy active protection be assuming Russian infantry support remained as is or if it was done right? Is the huge number of ATGMs made available to the Ukraine a factor? Can’t think of any battles where so many anti-tank weapons have been deployed and fired.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
French intelligence chief fired because he failed to predict large-scale invasion of Ukraine: French intelligence chief fired over war failings - BBC News
France's misreading of President Putin was all the more embarrassing because President Emmanuel Macron had spoken to him regularly in the days leading up to the invasion on 24 February.

Intelligence specialist Prof Alexandre Papaemmanuel told AFP it was too easy to blame military intelligence for the failure, which lay with France's entire intelligence community.
The Norwegian military intelligence read the tea leaves differently:
Nils Stensønes, head of the Intelligence Service, tells Dagbladet that already in the autumn of 2021 they received indications that Russia and President Vladimir Putin were planning to invade Ukraine. Among other things, we saw how they moved forces and prepared material around Ukraine, says Stensønes, who meets Dagbladet in the Intelligence Service's premises in Oslo.

- We gradually got Russia's plans confirmed all the way, right up until all the pieces fell into place in the new year.

The e-chief also says that they knew that Putin had decided to invade Ukraine before the invasion was launched.
google translated from: E-sjefen til Dagbladet: - Norge kjente til Putins plan
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine is trying to evacuate someone out of Mariupol'. After initial reports of one downed helo and another turned, apparently two more went down, one possibly in the water, there are KIAs and claimed survivors. It appears they were allowed to land and pick up passengers before going down. Some of the passengers appear to have been bandaged, suggesting that it may have at least partially been a CASEVAC, raising all kinds of ugly questions. Warning, footage of corpses.

 

QEDdeq

Member
Ukraine is trying to evacuate someone out of Mariupol'. After initial reports of one downed helo and another turned, apparently two more went down, one possibly in the water, there are KIAs and claimed survivors. It appears they were allowed to land and pick up passengers before going down. Some of the passengers appear to have been bandaged, suggesting that it may have at least partially been a CASEVAC, raising all kinds of ugly questions. Warning, footage of corpses.

I've seen there are interviews on the Russian channels with the two survivors. I wonder what were they saying, who was being evacuated? Judging by the importance given by Ukraine to the evacuation they must be very important.
 
I've seen there are interviews on the Russian channels with the two survivors. I wonder what were they saying, who was being evacuated? Judging by the importance given by Ukraine to the evacuation they must be very important.
In short:
The first survivor is wounded soldier from "Azov" who was being evacuated from Mariupol. The second survivor is Ukrainian spetsnaz officer who arrived in Mariupol aboard a helicopter (his job was to supervise the unloading/loading operations and provide machine gun fire support).
Five helicopters - four Mi-8 and one Mi-24 - landed in the port of Mariupol around five in the morning. They brought cargo and on their way back they took about twelve wounded soldiers from various units (each of them). Left engine of the fallen heli was hit by a SHORAD missile.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
1. Watch this to see conscripts being f##ked by instructors for poor tactics. You can see smoke being used to get across a danger area to enter the urban area from the jungle — there is about a 3 second window to clear a danger area. The fights are not static.
Dude, you sent me down a rabbit hole, I think I watched like 6 episodes. Very well shot series.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Dude, you sent me down a rabbit hole, I think I watched like 6 episodes. Very well shot series.
Cheers. This Guards conversion course TV series is now 10 years old. The conscripts (from 1st Guards or 3rd Guards) featured in the series would be on their 9th ICT — one more year to go before these Sons of Singapore are not eligible for call up.

It took a long time for the SAF to decide to declassify said infantry capabilities — now the SAF is starting to share basic info on the 5 month long combat qualification course, basic counter terrorism tactics for the infantry cordon. These are some of the tactics used by the Army Deployment Force (as part of a Guards Brigade — 7SIB). The Army Deployment Force is a 5 year old, elite infantry battalion that will come, by air, land, or sea to: (i) rescue Singapore police in a local counter terror scenario; or (ii) deploy overseas for peace support or HADR missions.

The famous Chechen's TikTok battalion. There are so many videos of Chechens as war tourists, while they waste massive amounts of resources without aiming and improperly using weapons on targets of no value.

1. Trained soldiers use suppressing fire to enable the RPG gunner to take a clear shot. The Chechen idiots not only got the sequence wrong, they are not even aiming — soldiers need to aim for the suppressing fire to have effect.

2. Plus, why would anyone stand-up to fire? Real soldiers often return fire from a kneeling or prone position — you make yourself a smaller target, by staying low.

3. This makes me question:
Is there even an enemy they are shooting at?​

It looks like just a video production to pretend these Chechen war tourists are fighting. Troops need to be calm under fire — to aim and shoot. They are not being engaged by the enemy and these idiots seem to be just wasting ammo.

4. The featured Chechen idiots are really poorly trained and led. This is the same as Afghan police standards — idiots who will shoot each other in a fire fight.
 
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Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Australia to send Bushmaster Armoured Vehicles to Ukraine via C-17 Transports, I would say these will be taken out of Australian Army Stocks, which the Army has several hundred in storage.
PS: It takes something pretty special to get the entire Australian Federal Parliament to give a standing ovation.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Australia to send Bushmaster Armoured Vehicles to Ukraine via C-17 Transports, I would say these will be taken out of Australian Army Stocks, which the Army has several hundred in storage.
PS: It takes something pretty special to get the entire Australian Federal Parliament to give a standing ovation.
There is total bipartisan support from Australia on this. Genuinely.

Russia is an economic competitor with Australia in coal, gas, wheat etc. So there are actual tangible economic benefits for Australia resulting from all this pressure on Russia. Also Australia is immune to threats from Russia of nuclear attack.. Good luck launching those nukes over China, North Korea, in the general direction of India and Japan, to hit widely spaced out targets at the very edge of their capability. It isn't even credible nuclear posturing. There is nothing Russia can do economically threaten that China isn't already doing or has tried to do. And again, China is going to escalate what with Australia on behalf of Russia? Greens and lefties are worried about the humanitarian issue and its a plea on behalf of an elected government.

There will be much pride in they asked for Australian bushmasters. It will also tangibly show the benefit of having a local capability.

Its one of those few things that just lines every thing, everyone, every political belief all in a straight line.

If we are flying C17's into Ukraine, are we escorting them with F-35's? It would make for a dramatic hand over to do it that way. Maybe do a low C17 flyby on the way out through the CBD of a Ukrainian city? With F-35 doing the same on after burners. Ok its maybe 3 Bushmasters on a plane, but think of the posturing. It would be on the news of every channel everywhere on the world that evening.

The rest we could ask Dutch and UK to give up a few of those already in Europe and put them on a ship and take them there in ~ a week. Australia can then replace this stock in a few months.

Gotta help out those struggling western European economies, like the UK and Netherlands..
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There is total bipartisan support from Australia on this. Genuinely.

Russia is an economic competitor with Australia in coal, gas, wheat etc. So there are actual tangible economic benefits for Australia resulting from all this pressure on Russia. Also Australia is immune to threats from Russia of nuclear attack.. Good luck launching those nukes over China, North Korea, in the general direction of India and Japan, to hit widely spaced out targets at the very edge of their capability. It isn't even credible nuclear posturing. There is nothing Russia can do economically threaten that China isn't already doing or has tried to do. And again, China is going to escalate what with Australia on behalf of Russia? Greens and lefties are worried about the humanitarian issue and its a plea on behalf of an elected government.

There will be much pride in they asked for Australian bushmasters. It will also tangibly show the benefit of having a local capability.

Its one of those few things that just lines every thing, everyone, every political belief all in a straight line.

If we are flying C17's into Ukraine, are we escorting them with F-35's? It would make for a dramatic hand over to do it that way. Maybe do a low C17 flyby on the way out through the CBD of a Ukrainian city? With F-35 doing the same on after burners. Ok its maybe 3 Bushmasters on a plane, but think of the posturing. It would be on the news of every channel everywhere on the world that evening.

The rest we could ask Dutch and UK to give up a few of those already in Europe and put them on a ship and take them there in ~ a week. Australia can then replace this stock in a few months.

Gotta help out those struggling western European economies, like the UK and Netherlands..
This doesn't seem likely. They sky over Ukraine is closed. Flying over it risks direct engagement. By far the likeliest scenario is a flight to Poland, followed by ground transport from there.

Cheers. This Guards conversion course TV series is now 10 years old. The conscripts (from 1st Guards or 3rd Guards) featured in the series would be on their 9th ICT — one more year to go before these Sons of Singapore are not eligible for call up.

It took a long time for the SAF to decide to declassify said infantry capabilities — now the SAF is starting to share basic info on the 5 month long combat qualification course, basic counter terrorism tactics for the infantry cordon. These are some of the tactics used by the Army Deployment Force (as part of a Guards Brigade — 7SIB). The Army Deployment Force is a 5 year old, elite infantry battalion that will come, by air, land, or sea to: (i) rescue Singapore police in a local counter terror scenario; or (ii) deploy overseas for peace support or HADR missions.

The famous Chechen's TikTok battalion. There are so many videos of Chechens as war tourists, while they waste massive amounts of resources without aiming and improperly using weapons on targets of no value.

1. Trained soldiers use suppressing fire to enable the RPG gunner to take a clear shot. The Chechen idiots not only got the sequence wrong, they are not even aiming — soldiers need to aim for the suppressing fire to have effect.

2. Plus, why would anyone stand-up to fire? Real soldiers often return fire from a kneeling or prone position — you make yourself a smaller target, by staying low.

3. This makes me question:

Is there even an enemy they are shooting at?

It looks like just a video production to pretend these Chechen war tourists are fighting. Troops need to be calm under fire — to aim and shoot. They are not being engaged by the enemy and these idiots seem to be just wasting ammo.

4. The featured Chechen idiots are really poorly trained and led. This is the same as Afghan police standards — idiots who will shoot each other in a fire fight.
Is it a btln though? I can't help but wonder. We see a lot of the same faces. Could it be a group of "highborn" Chechens who are relatives of the authorities and whose military service is borderline fictional, but who are showing off? It makes little sense to send additional Chechen fighters to Ukraine if they are of no military value. Given how often I see the same faces I can't help but wonder if a small group of golden boys is f*cking around, while the real Chechen National Guard isn't posting any photos or videos for obvious reason and is engaged in clearing the city. At the end of the day, Mariupol' is getting cleared, block by block.
 

Twain

Active Member
Short Oryx Update

Currently the russian loss total by Oryx is at 2147 but one of the people working on the Oryx project said this on twitter

"At this rate, I expect that the main limitation for when
@oryxspioenkop

@Danspiun

@kemal_115
and myself will get to 3000 Russian pieces of heavy equipment will be the time we will need to process all these crazy losses. "


More older equipment is showing up on the battlefield, some from the 70's, T-34's next?

I don't care how much equipment russia has in storage, they can't sustain these kind of losses. They still have to get it out of storage, make sure it is actually operational, possibly repair it and then get it shipped to somewhere near Ukraine and man it. their logistics is already strained to the breaking point.

Then there are the personnel losses that have to be substantial with these kind of equipment losses. To top that off that their "elite" personnel that led the invasion can't be replaced in the short term and the replacements they are sending in are probably not near as good. Even if Russia somehow "wins", this is devastating for russia. Their military may be more than a decade recovering from this.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Walking along, taking a live-stream selfie and it shows them getting pwned in the end — this is the result of the lack of situational awareness and not using any cover, when rounds are being fired. There is no tactical distancing with the 2 featured in the video. The stupid die first.

In the background, you can hear the “krump” of an earlier INCOMING round being fired.

This is the modern equivalent of smoking in the jungle, at night — the enemy will get you for giving away your position. In a war zone, situational awareness is important and even turning-on a cell phone is a bad idea.

Is it a btln though? I can't help but wonder. We see a lot of the same faces. Could it be a group of "highborn" Chechens who are relatives of the authorities and whose military service is borderline fictional, but who are showing off? It makes little sense to send additional Chechen fighters to Ukraine if they are of no military value. Given how often I see the same faces I can't help but wonder if a small group of golden boys is f*cking around…
I think you are right. I just did not have enough basis to say it, as I am not watching enough of the Mariupol clearance videos.

Mariupol is definitely getting cleared, block by block but not by these Chechen clowns, who may be a group of "highborn" Chechens. This is a Chechen game of attempting to take credit for the blood shed by other Russian forces to clear Mariupol.
 
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StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
This doesn't seem likely. They sky over Ukraine is closed. Flying over it risks direct engagement. By far the likeliest scenario is a flight to Poland, followed by ground transport from there.
Probably. We already have four C17 prepositioned in Europe.

I know Poland was concerned about directly handing over the fighter jets and tanks.
The Australian prime minister and the defence minister have said they will flying them in directly if that is required. Dutton was a bit more explore options, but the Prime Minister seem to be poking NATO nations directly in the eye.

“We are not just sending our prayers, we are sending our guns, ammunitions, humanitarian aid, all of this, our body armour, all of these things,” he said.

“We will send our armoured vehicles, our Bushmasters, as well, and we will fly them over there in our C-17s to make sure they can be there to support.”
The obvious thing to do would be to drive/Fly them from the UK/Poland (from their existing vehicles) to Poland and drive them across. If UK/Dutch don't want to give up vehicles. It won't stop the delivery.

But if Poland isn't happy with combat vehicles passing over its border, or if Russia attacks routes into Ukraine from Poland, things would get more complicated, these aren't Nlaws or Javlins or helmets. It would be catastrophic to the Australian government just months out from an election to fail to deliver a promised delivery of military aid to the Ukraine. This cannot be equipment dumped at the border, or worse, sitting in Poland or worse sitting around Germany. It needs to be seen operating in Ukraine ASAP.

I wonder if this will foreshadow perhaps additional prepositioning of RAAF forces, to enable the implementation of Australian government policy.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Probably. We already have four C17 prepositioned in Europe.

I know Poland was concerned about directly handing over the fighter jets and tanks.
The Australian prime minister and the defence minister have said they will flying them in directly if that is required. Dutton was a bit more explore options, but the Prime Minister seem to be poking NATO nations directly in the eye.



The obvious thing to do would be to drive/Fly them from the UK/Poland (from their existing vehicles) to Poland and drive them across. If UK/Dutch don't want to give up vehicles. It won't stop the delivery.

But if Poland isn't happy with combat vehicles passing over its border, or if Russia attacks routes into Ukraine from Poland, things would get more complicated, these aren't Nlaws or Javlins or helmets. It would be catastrophic to the Australian government just months out from an election to fail to deliver a promised delivery of military aid to the Ukraine. This cannot be equipment dumped at the border, or worse, sitting in Poland or worse sitting around Germany. It needs to be seen operating in Ukraine ASAP.

I wonder if this will foreshadow perhaps additional prepositioning of RAAF forces, to enable the implementation of Australian government policy.
What happens when an S-400 out of Belarus downs an Australian C-17 over northern Ukraine? I think the risk of getting stuck in Poland is less potentially impactful then the risk of getting stuck in Poland. Granted I don't know much about internal Australian politics, but won't Australia's government look twice as bad if they lose a military jet and can't do much to retaliate?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Australian prime minister and the defence minister have said they will flying them in directly if that is required. Dutton was a bit more explore options, but the Prime Minister seem to be poking NATO nations directly in the eye.

The obvious thing to do would be to drive/Fly them from the UK/Poland (from their existing vehicles) to Poland and drive them across. If UK/Dutch don't want to give up vehicles. It won't stop the delivery.
I wonder if this will foreshadow perhaps additional prepositioning of RAAF forces, to enable the implementation of Australian government policy.
Why poke others in the eye? If the idiot of a PM wants the RAAF to send C-17s directly into Ukraine, they better have some fighter cover with lots of ISR on the airport 48 hours before touch down. Don’t think Poland will look kindly on supporting RAAF fighters flying sorties into Ukraine.

What happens when an S-400 out of Belarus downs an Australian C-17 over northern Ukraine? I think the risk of getting stuck in Poland is less potentially impactful then the risk of getting stuck in Poland.
It would make more sense to land Australian C-17s with Bushmasters in Poland and then drive them into Ukraine.
 
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StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
What happens when an S-400 out of Belarus downs an Australian C-17 over northern Ukraine? I think the risk of getting stuck in Poland is less potentially impactful then the risk of getting stuck in Poland. Granted I don't know much about internal Australian politics, but won't Australia's government look twice as bad if they lose a military jet and can't do much to retaliate?
While not keen to get into the political situation lets just say the current government is Ultra invested in being military capable. Our minister on being the hard man of defence. The drama around AUKUS/French subs and dropping under performing euro gear Tiger and NH90 gives some indication of that.

Also Australia reads this whole situation differently. This has nothing to do really about Europe and Russia, every thing is seen through the China lens. Australia wants to set a standard of what is possible if asked, no matter how much pressure is applied from elsewhere.. A middle power, that is outside of NATO, threatened by a larger power. This applies to Australia and our interests (say Singapore, Indonesia, Pacific, Vietnam, Philippines). We want to demonstrate to the world, to China, to others our commitment and capability, above and beyond what ever other allies deem possible.

Regarding not being able to do much to retaliate. Certainly Australia would want options. If it is to make the delivery, I wouldn't completely rule out other Australian aircraft making a trip to Europe. We have 24 Superhornets/11 Growlers, we 48 F-35 operational, E7's, all the toys. Doesn't mean flying in, but could mean deterring.

It doesn't mean C17 flying into Kyiv, on a nice high profile, and a red carpet parade.

If Belarus/Russia wants to pick a war with Australia, well, we will see. From Australia's point of view, seems like better option than losing all credibility globally and its its region, and having to fight a war with China. As a hypothetical discussion, Australia could probably degrade Belarus's air defence capability pretty quickly. Not sure how Belarus would get trying to throw a punch at Australia. I think we have the largest F-35 air force outside of the US currently. Do we operate more 5th gen platforms than China + Russia combined?

If we won't come to the aid of someone who requests, it, why would someone come to our aid. I cannot stress to others what that concept is extreme importance to Australians.

While I admit its all unlikely, I am saying Australian's will see the situation differently. Do not expect European attitudes or even US attitudes to apply. It is this type of thinking, that in say Syria people thought Turkey wouldn't fire on Russian fighters.

What is likely is that Australia will bring all its political and diplomatic pressure to ensure those Bushmasters make it. Everything. They must get delivered, and the clock is ticking. The symbolic language around this is immense.

The PM has set it up as a giant political stunt for a global and domestic audience.
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Probably. We already have four C17 prepositioned in Europe.

I know Poland was concerned about directly handing over the fighter jets and tanks.
The Australian prime minister and the defence minister have said they will flying them in directly if that is required. Dutton was a bit more explore options, but the Prime Minister seem to be poking NATO nations directly in the eye.



The obvious thing to do would be to drive/Fly them from the UK/Poland (from their existing vehicles) to Poland and drive them across. If UK/Dutch don't want to give up vehicles. It won't stop the delivery.

But if Poland isn't happy with combat vehicles passing over its border, or if Russia attacks routes into Ukraine from Poland, things would get more complicated, these aren't Nlaws or Javlins or helmets. It would be catastrophic to the Australian government just months out from an election to fail to deliver a promised delivery of military aid to the Ukraine. This cannot be equipment dumped at the border, or worse, sitting in Poland or worse sitting around Germany. It needs to be seen operating in Ukraine ASAP.

I wonder if this will foreshadow perhaps additional prepositioning of RAAF forces, to enable the implementation of Australian government policy.
Interesting that Ukraine being involved in an actual war against a peer nation realises it needs armour, artillery, rocket artillery, armed drones, missiles and substantial ammunition /munitions supplies.

Meanwhile we are cancelling our only current armed drone acquisition project.

Our strategic analysts are calling for us to divest ourselves of “useless” heavy armour and self-propelled artillery.

Defence have confirmed we are not “committed’ to rocket artillery, despite investing in PrSM (what they imagine might launch it, is entirely unclear).

We are proceeding at an absolute glacial pace in pursuing some form of defensive system against ballistic missile attack.

Have decided “cyber” is such an operationally required capability other projects and our already too limited manning increases, have to be entirely devoted to it.

Interesting times and decision making processes, given our defence minister repeatedly tells us, we’re not far off the precipice of state on state warfare with the largest military power on the planet…
 
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