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Russia and Turkey have had many backroom deals, some successful, some not. I think it's important to remember that these actors are out for themselves first and foremost. I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of deal is reached, but the question is what will Russia get for it? If the answer is nothing, there probably won't be a deal. If the answer is something, and the war is still ongoing, will this ultimately bolster Russia's war effort?The grain deal is back in the news with talks between Erdogan and Putin. Negotiation is always a good sign. While Erdogan asks both sides not to escalate, it may be too late for that. In spite of the warning by Russia that they consider any ship headed to Ukraine to be capable of carrying military cargo, and the difficulty of finding insurance, 3 ships are registered as headed to Ukraine. After Russia made their threat to civilian shipping, Ukraine reciprocated with a similar statement.
Putin Speaks With Erdogan for 1st Time Since Russia Canceled Grain Deal (Published 2023)
The Turkish president urged a resumption of the agreement that allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea, and called on both Russia and Ukraine not to escalate tensions.www.nytimes.com
Ships from Israel, Greece, and Turkey transit Black sea, watched over by Nato aircraft.
NATO jets monitor as 3 civilian ships run through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine
Three civilian cargo ships ran the Russian blockade in the Black Sea on Sunday and anchored at one of Ukraine’s grain ports on the Danube Delta, under theenglish.alarabiya.net
In other developments, as Russia, for the time being ignores these ships, there are indications that Ukraine has attacked a non military vessel. This is one of the vessels sanctioned by the west for military use. It may also have carried humanitarian cargo to Syria following the recent earthquake.
Russia says thwarted Ukrainian drone attacks on its Black Sea navy ships
Three Ukrainian sea drones attacked two Russian Black Sea navy ships 340 kilometers (211 miles) southwest of Sevastopol and were destroyed, TASS citedenglish.alarabiya.net
Бабель
Вранці Міноборони росії повідомило про «безуспішну» атаку трьох морських дронів на патрульні кораблі Чорноморського флоту «Сергей Котов» і «Василий Быков». Напад стався за 340 км від Севастополя, і всі дрони нібито були знищені. Російські «воєнкори» також стверджують, що серед атакованих був...t.me
Sparta IV came to the rescue
The transportation was carried out as part of the joint work of Russian and Syrian companies, as well as the Charity Foundation Pure Heart.oboronlogistika.ru
Russian Ship Loaded With Military Equipment Enters Black Sea - Naval News
A Russian cargo ship slipped quietly into the Black Sea with a suspected load of war supplies for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The ship, Sparta IV, was loaded in Syria and sailed with a Russian Navy escort. Although Turkey closed the waterway between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to...www.navalnews.com
Russia did let some ships through and instead seems to be focused on hitting the ports themselves. The question of course remains open, if a ship is there and Russia thinks it's carrying military cargo, presumably they would strike it. And ships in a port getting hit could also suffer damage. Something Russia is likely to dismiss as "we told you so".