The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The grain deal is back in the news with talks between Erdogan and Putin. Negotiation is always a good sign. While Erdogan asks both sides not to escalate, it may be too late for that. In spite of the warning by Russia that they consider any ship headed to Ukraine to be capable of carrying military cargo, and the difficulty of finding insurance, 3 ships are registered as headed to Ukraine. After Russia made their threat to civilian shipping, Ukraine reciprocated with a similar statement.


Ships from Israel, Greece, and Turkey transit Black sea, watched over by Nato aircraft.


In other developments, as Russia, for the time being ignores these ships, there are indications that Ukraine has attacked a non military vessel. This is one of the vessels sanctioned by the west for military use. It may also have carried humanitarian cargo to Syria following the recent earthquake.





Russia and Turkey have had many backroom deals, some successful, some not. I think it's important to remember that these actors are out for themselves first and foremost. I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of deal is reached, but the question is what will Russia get for it? If the answer is nothing, there probably won't be a deal. If the answer is something, and the war is still ongoing, will this ultimately bolster Russia's war effort?

Russia did let some ships through and instead seems to be focused on hitting the ports themselves. The question of course remains open, if a ship is there and Russia thinks it's carrying military cargo, presumably they would strike it. And ships in a port getting hit could also suffer damage. Something Russia is likely to dismiss as "we told you so".
 

Larry_L

Active Member
I don't think anyone has asked the Russians whether (1) is that what they want (2) are they prepared to accept something less, (3) what is that something less.
It is obvious that there are "back door" negotiations going on, and probably have been since early in the conflict. Those would be several of the first questions asked. Russia continually states that they are ready for negotiation although their position has not changed. Neither has Ukraine's position. Although these two are the primary negotiators, all NATO members have a huge stake in the outcome of this conflict. They would not be supporting Ukraine at this level if there was not a good chance for Ukraine to survive as a country.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I don't think anyone has asked the Russians whether (1) is that what they want (2) are they prepared to accept something less, (3) what is that something less.
Why should they? The Russians have launched an illegal war of aggression and conquest for no valid defensible reason. They have and are also committing war crimes. This assessment may upset some of the Russian supporters on here, but it is exactly what it is.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Why should they? The Russians have launched an illegal war of aggression and conquest for no valid defensible reason. They have and are also committing war crimes. This assessment may upset some of the Russian supporters on here, but it is exactly what it is.
We are not disputing or condoning Russian actions here. Cutting a deal with mass murders, warlords, dictators does not mean condoning their actions.

The Korean War was started unilaterally by NK but there was an eventual armistice broker by the UN. There are other conflicts with equally bloody parties all around (Darfur, Cambodia). Thousand, millions perished because some general with ego wanted to be king of the hill. There will be a reckoning, but that reckoning can come independently from a solution.

Eventually someone has to broker something. We can always go around saying one party committed more atrocities/pograms than the other, but it won't get anywhere.
 

rsemmes

Member
Staromaiorske.
"According to Russian sources, Ukraine holds the northern part of the village. The southern part is empty, and Russian troops hold the heights south-west of the town. The village itself is basically in ruins. Urozhaynoe appears to be still in Russian hands."

Thanks Feanor.
 
The landing vessel Olenegorsky Gornyak is in danger of sinking after Ukrainian drones attacked shipping near the Russian naval base at Novorossiisk.
The ship took at least one damaging hit from a sea drone about midships during the night and subsequent videos show it listing heavily while being towed into port by three tugboats.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Shoigu in Ukrainian front, visiting front line HQ. Seems somewhere near Lyman or Donestk front. As expected the war trophy begin to be use for propaganda shoot.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The landing vessel Olenegorsky Gornyak is in danger of sinking after Ukrainian drones attacked shipping near the Russian naval base at Novorossiisk.
The ship took at least one damaging hit from a sea drone about midships during the night and subsequent videos show it listing heavily while being towed into port by three tugboats.

It's another example of Russian military leadership being reactive rather then proactive. Ukraine has attacked Sevastopol' many times, and that military base is adequately protected, they have stopped quite a few such attacks. But Novorossiysk was never hit before, and so nobody bothered taking appropriate measures. At least it appears the BDK didn't sink and is now at a pier.


EDIT: Here's a video of it getting towed.


And footage of the attack.

 
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Larry_L

Active Member
The attack on the Russian landing ship appears to be just the beginning of a swarm. The latest events are in the Kersch area. A Russian tanker has been disabled, and the attack seems to continue. The Kersch bridge may be under attack. The lights have been turned off, and traffic has been stopped.


A video of the bridge in the dark. No explosions seen. Possibly a fire.


Apparently the ship that was hit was under sanctions.


No major damage to the ship. Possibly the rudder, propeller area was targeted? Ukraine would not want to hull a chemical tanker.


A telegram post on the tanker. In Russian.


The Yahoo blurb.


Reuters


The latest on the grain deal. JP Morgan has bee processing payments to and from Russia. Now that the grain deal has stopped, the firm has stopped payments to Russia. Russia is irate that the payments have stopped, as they continue to export grain. One of their main demands to renew the deal is for their agricultural bank to be reconnected to the SWIFT system. Several months into the war Russia was disconnected from SWIFT as part of the sanctions.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

The oil tanker was hit at major oil export terminal, thus the talk the tanker serve Russian military is debatable. Not only this can put risk on International oil market, but also this can open Russian attack to Ukrainian Danube ports more then what's already done. Especially open more Russian targeting international export grain ships as tit for tat action.

Off course there's argument that can say the Ukrainian (or perhaps some in West) see this attack to push Russian to allow Ukrainian Export grain. However it is also can result the other way around. Ukrainian now can only relied to Drones, while Russian still have combat ships in Black Sea.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

The oil tanker was hit at major oil export terminal, thus the talk the tanker serve Russian military is debatable. Not only this can put risk on International oil market, but also this can open Russian attack to Ukrainian Danube ports more then what's already done. Especially open more Russian targeting international export grain ships as tit for tat action.

Off course there's argument that can say the Ukrainian (or perhaps some in West) see this attack to push Russian to allow Ukrainian Export grain. However it is also can result the other way around. Ukrainian now can only relied to Drones, while Russian still have combat ships in Black Sea.
Not sure any of that matters. Russia is busy demolishing Ukrainian port infrastructure. Can't run shipping if you have no ports. Turkey might be concerned if shipping to Central Asia via the Volga-Don canal is disrupted. But on the other hand disrupting Russo-Turkish trade relations might be desirable from a western perspective too.
 
Not only this can put risk on International oil market, but also this can open Russian attack to Ukrainian Danube ports more then what's already done. Especially open more Russian targeting international export grain ships as tit for tat action.
Russia was already targeting Ukrainian Danube ports, so from Ukraine’s perspective, there is no risk of escalation of the maritime war. For them, any successful retaliation is a win.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Russia was already targeting Ukrainian Danube ports, so from Ukraine’s perspective, there is no risk of escalation of the maritime war.
Russia so far only targeting Port Facilities, not the ships traffic. That's the potential escalation if Russia decide on that, as the results attack on their oil export port traffic. Ukrainian attacking the traffic not the facilities. Not I believe because they don't want to, but more because that's what Ukrainian capable off by only relied with drones.
 
Russia so far only targeting Port Facilities, not the ships traffic. That's the potential escalation if Russia decide on that, as the results attack on their oil export port traffic. Ukrainian attacking the traffic not the facilities. Not I believe because they don't want to, but more because that's what Ukrainian capable off by only relied with drones.
If Russia destroys the Port Facilities, there would be no more ship traffic for Ukraine.

If Russia attacks the ships, it may very well destroy a ship owned by a foreign country making even more enemies, which is what Ukraine wants.

In the maritime war, Ukraine has nothing left to lose after Russia targeted their Danube ports, so they can go total war against Russia’s Black Sea assets now.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Russia attacks the ships, it may very well destroy a ship owned by a foreign country making even more enemies, which is what Ukraine wants.
Most likely if Russian escalate to attack traffic on Danube Ports, it will be Western Ships. At this points attacking Western ships trafficking to Ukrainian ports, also for Russia is nothing to lose anymore.


It is still traffic going to that port. Insurers already put it on suspension the traffic coverage base on previous grain deal. However even they acknowledge it is not total dead yet (grain corridors), until Russia attack the ships. Russia has not in total maritime war yet with Ukrainian sea lines. There's still room to escalate.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Turkey might be concerned if shipping to Central Asia via the Volga-Don canal is disrupted. But on the other hand disrupting Russo-Turkish trade relations might be desirable from a western perspective too.
Correct me, but unless Ukrainian can secure a port in Azov sea again, I don't see how they can disrupt Volga-Don canal. Isn't this why Russian take a lot off effort to secure Azov Sea? All this effort on Maruiopol seems also to secure their in-land canal waterways exit toward Black Sea, and off course Crimean flank.

Let's see how they are going to answer Ukrainian drones from Nikolayev and Kherson.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Correct me, but unless Ukrainian can secure a port in Azov sea again, I don't see how they can disrupt Volga-Don canal. Isn't this why Russian take a lot off effort to secure Azov Sea? All this effort on Maruiopol seems also to secure their in-land canal waterways exit toward Black Sea, and off course Crimean flank.

Let's see how they are going to answer Ukrainian drones from Nikolayev and Kherson.
They can disrupt traffic through the Kerch strait into the Don. Strikes against Russia-bound maritime traffic can make the entire shipping artery unsafe.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
All great responses above, but I would venture a guess that the guy read the like “stories” before, for the past 3 or so years, and is not going to be convinced on the Russian-Ukrainian war thread, lol. This is the reason I opted to pass on this discussion when he first mentioned it in a reply to my post.

Edit: This post was referring to an off-topic discussion that was moved to another thread.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
sorry, but the Danube doesn't go anywhere near Ukraine. Are you seriously suggesting th
Do some simple online check on Port of Izmail. Simple Google map checking will do Izmayilʹsʹkyy Morsʹkyy Vokzal · Luky Kapikrayana emb. 7, Izmail, Odessa Oblast, Ukraine, 68600 This is where most Ukrainian grain export goes, after nearly every maritime insurers stop covering insurance for ships to Odessa city port. This is the only port left in Odessa oblast for most grain maritime shipment that consider unhindered before (due to sharing Danube's border with NATO member Rumania).


This is why Rumanian authorities involve in clearing traffic jam in Danube, due to Russian attack on Izmail port facilities. This is why West and off course Ukrainian very upset on Russian attacks to the port, cause it is really clossing the Grain Corridor left for Ukrainian maritime export.

Still I do believe Russian has not attacking or physically stoping any ships traffic to the ports, yet (at least lately). Which means Russian can still escalate their grip on any traffic for this grain corridor. Especially for those 'Western' ships that still 'dare' to try entering the ports. This what I do see Russian can do to escalate, if Ukrainian continues attacking their Crimean ports, especially the oil export ones. This is seems also why Ukrainian attacking traffic to Novorossiysk (as before hasn't done yet) , as they seems try to "bargain" with Russian for Izmail.
 
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