The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

The grain deal is back in the news with talks between Erdogan and Putin. Negotiation is always a good sign. While Erdogan asks both sides not to escalate, it may be too late for that. In spite of the warning by Russia that they consider any ship headed to Ukraine to be capable of carrying military cargo, and the difficulty of finding insurance, 3 ships are registered as headed to Ukraine. After Russia made their threat to civilian shipping, Ukraine reciprocated with a similar statement.

Putin Speaks With Erdogan for 1st Time Since Russia Canceled Grain Deal (Published 2023)

The Turkish president urged a resumption of the agreement that allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea, and called on both Russia and Ukraine not to escalate tensions.

www.nytimes.com

Ships from Israel, Greece, and Turkey transit Black sea, watched over by Nato aircraft.

NATO jets monitor as 3 civilian ships run through Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine

Three civilian cargo ships ran the Russian blockade in the Black Sea on Sunday and anchored at one of Ukraine’s grain ports on the Danube Delta, under the

english.alarabiya.net

In other developments, as Russia, for the time being ignores these ships, there are indications that Ukraine has attacked a non military vessel. This is one of the vessels sanctioned by the west for military use. It may also have carried humanitarian cargo to Syria following the recent earthquake.

Russia says thwarted Ukrainian drone attacks on its Black Sea navy ships

Three Ukrainian sea drones attacked two Russian Black Sea navy ships 340 kilometers (211 miles) southwest of Sevastopol and were destroyed, TASS cited

english.alarabiya.net

Бабель

Вранці Міноборони росії повідомило про «безуспішну» атаку трьох морських дронів на патрульні кораблі Чорноморського флоту «Сергей Котов» і «Василий Быков». Напад стався за 340 км від Севастополя, і всі дрони нібито були знищені. Російські «воєнкори» також стверджують, що серед атакованих був...

t.me

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1686417524575948819

Sparta IV came to the rescue

The transportation was carried out as part of the joint work of Russian and Syrian companies, as well as the Charity Foundation Pure Heart.

oboronlogistika.ru

Russian Ship Loaded With Military Equipment Enters Black Sea - Naval News

A Russian cargo ship slipped quietly into the Black Sea with a suspected load of war supplies for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The ship, Sparta IV, was loaded in Syria and sailed with a Russian Navy escort. Although Turkey closed the waterway between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to...

www.navalnews.com

Russia and Turkey have had many backroom deals, some successful, some not. I think it's important to remember that these actors are out for themselves first and foremost. I wouldn't be surprised if some sort of deal is reached, but the question is what will Russia get for it? If the answer is nothing, there probably won't be a deal. If the answer is something, and the war is still ongoing, will this ultimately bolster Russia's war effort?

Russia did let some ships through and instead seems to be focused on hitting the ports themselves. The question of course remains open, if a ship is there and Russia thinks it's carrying military cargo, presumably they would strike it. And ships in a port getting hit could also suffer damage. Something Russia is likely to dismiss as "we told you so".

 

[Larry_L]

I don't think anyone has asked the Russians whether (1) is that what they want (2) are they prepared to accept something less, (3) what is that something less.

It is obvious that there are "back door" negotiations going on, and probably have been since early in the conflict. Those would be several of the first questions asked. Russia continually states that they are ready for negotiation although their position has not changed. Neither has Ukraine's position. Although these two are the primary negotiators, all NATO members have a huge stake in the outcome of this conflict. They would not be supporting Ukraine at this level if there was not a good chance for Ukraine to survive as a country.

 

[ngatimozart]

I don't think anyone has asked the Russians whether (1) is that what they want (2) are they prepared to accept something less, (3) what is that something less.

Why should they? The Russians have launched an illegal war of aggression and conquest for no valid defensible reason. They have and are also committing war crimes. This assessment may upset some of the Russian supporters on here, but it is exactly what it is.

 

[koxinga]

Why should they? The Russians have launched an illegal war of aggression and conquest for no valid defensible reason. They have and are also committing war crimes. This assessment may upset some of the Russian supporters on here, but it is exactly what it is.

We are not disputing or condoning Russian actions here. Cutting a deal with mass murders, warlords, dictators does not mean condoning their actions.

The Korean War was started unilaterally by NK but there was an eventual armistice broker by the UN. There are other conflicts with equally bloody parties all around (Darfur, Cambodia). Thousand, millions perished because some general with ego wanted to be king of the hill. There will be a reckoning, but that reckoning can come independently from a solution.

Eventually someone has to broker something. We can always go around saying one party committed more atrocities/pograms than the other, but it won't get anywhere.

 

[seaspear]

New York Post quoting on reports by investigators finds a high level of torture by Russian personnel certainly Geneva cross has been forbidden by Russian officials to see prisoners let alone civilians under Russian control, its not about one party committing more atrocities but one party in breach of many international laws
Kherson prisoners subjected to torture, including genital electrocution (nypost.com)

 

[rsemmes]

Staromaiorske.
"According to Russian sources, Ukraine holds the northern part of the village. The southern part is empty, and Russian troops hold the heights south-west of the town. The village itself is basically in ruins. Urozhaynoe appears to be still in Russian hands."

Thanks Feanor.

 

[wild_Willie2]

The landing vessel Olenegorsky Gornyak is in danger of sinking after Ukrainian drones attacked shipping near the Russian naval base at Novorossiisk.
The ship took at least one damaging hit from a sea drone about midships during the night and subsequent videos show it listing heavily while being towed into port by three tugboats.

Northern Fleet ship seriously damaged in drone attack

The 112 meter long landing vessel Olenegorsky Gornyak is in danger of sinking after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian naval base in Novorossiisk.

thebarentsobserver.com

 

[Ananda]

Shoigu in Ukrainian front, visiting front line HQ. Seems somewhere near Lyman or Donestk front. As expected the war trophy begin to be use for propaganda shoot.

 

[Feanor]

The landing vessel Olenegorsky Gornyak is in danger of sinking after Ukrainian drones attacked shipping near the Russian naval base at Novorossiisk.
The ship took at least one damaging hit from a sea drone about midships during the night and subsequent videos show it listing heavily while being towed into port by three tugboats.

Northern Fleet ship seriously damaged in drone attack

The 112 meter long landing vessel Olenegorsky Gornyak is in danger of sinking after Ukrainian drones struck the Russian naval base in Novorossiisk.

thebarentsobserver.com

It's another example of Russian military leadership being reactive rather then proactive. Ukraine has attacked Sevastopol' many times, and that military base is adequately protected, they have stopped quite a few such attacks. But Novorossiysk was never hit before, and so nobody bothered taking appropriate measures. At least it appears the BDK didn't sink and is now at a pier.

Colonelcassad

БДК "Оленегорский горняк" в Новороссийске. После взрыва беспилотника получил ощутимый крен на борт, приняв приличное кол-во воды в поврежденный отсек. Как воду откачают, по всей видимости потребуется доковый ремонт. Корабль в последнее время исподьзовался для перевозки гражданских автомобилей с...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Появились спутниковые фотографии гавани Новороссийска. "Оленегорского горняка" довели до пирса, угрозы затопления корабля нет. Ведутся работы по устранению полученных повреждений. В общем, сравнительно легко отделались, хотя некоторое время "Оленегорскому горняку" придется провести на ремонте...

t.me

EDIT: Here's a video of it getting towed.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

And footage of the attack.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Larry_L]

The attack on the Russian landing ship appears to be just the beginning of a swarm. The latest events are in the Kersch area. A Russian tanker has been disabled, and the attack seems to continue. The Kersch bridge may be under attack. The lights have been turned off, and traffic has been stopped.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687577041888022528

A video of the bridge in the dark. No explosions seen. Possibly a fire.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687577041888022528

Apparently the ship that was hit was under sanctions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687587989289877505

No major damage to the ship. Possibly the rudder, propeller area was targeted? Ukraine would not want to hull a chemical tanker.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1687587410501128192

A telegram post on the tanker. In Russian.

The Moscow Times

Канал "Осторожно, новости" опубликовал переговоры моряков российского танкера-химовоза SIG, который был поврежден украинским беспилотником. Экипаж говорит о том, что судно на плаву, но само перемещаться не может. Сейчас на месте работает катер "Меркурий", который пришел на помощь. Подписаться...

t.me

The Yahoo blurb.

Explosions reported near Crimean Bridge, potentially damaging Russian chemical tanker

Explosions near the Crimean Bridge were reported by Russian-affiliated Telegram channels during the early hours of August 5. Despite previous reports, Russian sources claim that no explosions have been reported directly on the bridge itself.

news.yahoo.com

Reuters

Ukraine hits Russian tanker with sea drone near Crimea Bridge

The strike comes after a Ukraine drone attack on Russia's navy base at Novorossiysk damaged a Russian warship on Friday, the first time the Ukrainian navy has projected its power so far from its shores.

www.reuters.com

The latest on the grain deal. JP Morgan has bee processing payments to and from Russia. Now that the grain deal has stopped, the firm has stopped payments to Russia. Russia is irate that the payments have stopped, as they continue to export grain. One of their main demands to renew the deal is for their agricultural bank to be reconnected to the SWIFT system. Several months into the war Russia was disconnected from SWIFT as part of the sanctions.

JPMorgan Stops Processing Payments for Russian Agricultural Bank Amidst Moscow's Demands

Russia Seeks Concrete Actions from Washington on Grain and Fertilizer Exports Russia has demanded concrete actions from the United States to help facilitate the global market reach of Russian grain and fertilizer. Moscow has a list of demands it wants met before considering a return to a deal...

bnn.network

 

[Ananda]

Ukrainian Drones Target Russian Ship At Major Oil Export Terminal | OilPrice.com

Ukrainian security services and navy conducted a drone strike on a Russian navy ship outside the Novorossiysk oil export port in the Black Sea.

oilprice.com

The oil tanker was hit at major oil export terminal, thus the talk the tanker serve Russian military is debatable. Not only this can put risk on International oil market, but also this can open Russian attack to Ukrainian Danube ports more then what's already done. Especially open more Russian targeting international export grain ships as tit for tat action.

Off course there's argument that can say the Ukrainian (or perhaps some in West) see this attack to push Russian to allow Ukrainian Export grain. However it is also can result the other way around. Ukrainian now can only relied to Drones, while Russian still have combat ships in Black Sea.

 

[Feanor]

Ukrainian Drones Target Russian Ship At Major Oil Export Terminal | OilPrice.com

Ukrainian security services and navy conducted a drone strike on a Russian navy ship outside the Novorossiysk oil export port in the Black Sea.

oilprice.com

The oil tanker was hit at major oil export terminal, thus the talk the tanker serve Russian military is debatable. Not only this can put risk on International oil market, but also this can open Russian attack to Ukrainian Danube ports more then what's already done. Especially open more Russian targeting international export grain ships as tit for tat action.

Off course there's argument that can say the Ukrainian (or perhaps some in West) see this attack to push Russian to allow Ukrainian Export grain. However it is also can result the other way around. Ukrainian now can only relied to Drones, while Russian still have combat ships in Black Sea.

Not sure any of that matters. Russia is busy demolishing Ukrainian port infrastructure. Can't run shipping if you have no ports. Turkey might be concerned if shipping to Central Asia via the Volga-Don canal is disrupted. But on the other hand disrupting Russo-Turkish trade relations might be desirable from a western perspective too.

 

[contricusc]

Not only this can put risk on International oil market, but also this can open Russian attack to Ukrainian Danube ports more then what's already done. Especially open more Russian targeting international export grain ships as tit for tat action.

Russia was already targeting Ukrainian Danube ports, so from Ukraine’s perspective, there is no risk of escalation of the maritime war. For them, any successful retaliation is a win.

 

[Ananda]

Russia was already targeting Ukrainian Danube ports, so from Ukraine’s perspective, there is no risk of escalation of the maritime war.

Russia so far only targeting Port Facilities, not the ships traffic. That's the potential escalation if Russia decide on that, as the results attack on their oil export port traffic. Ukrainian attacking the traffic not the facilities. Not I believe because they don't want to, but more because that's what Ukrainian capable off by only relied with drones.

 

[contricusc]

Russia so far only targeting Port Facilities, not the ships traffic. That's the potential escalation if Russia decide on that, as the results attack on their oil export port traffic. Ukrainian attacking the traffic not the facilities. Not I believe because they don't want to, but more because that's what Ukrainian capable off by only relied with drones.

If Russia destroys the Port Facilities, there would be no more ship traffic for Ukraine.

If Russia attacks the ships, it may very well destroy a ship owned by a foreign country making even more enemies, which is what Ukraine wants.

In the maritime war, Ukraine has nothing left to lose after Russia targeted their Danube ports, so they can go total war against Russia’s Black Sea assets now.

 

[Ananda]

Russia attacks the ships, it may very well destroy a ship owned by a foreign country making even more enemies, which is what Ukraine wants.

Most likely if Russian escalate to attack traffic on Danube Ports, it will be Western Ships. At this points attacking Western ships trafficking to Ukrainian ports, also for Russia is nothing to lose anymore.

Romania bids to clear Danube logjam after Ukraine attack

Romania expects around 30 ships from Ukraine to clear customs on the Danube River over the next two days as it bids to clear a logjam in the aftermath of Wednesday's Russian attack on Ukraine's main river port at Izmail.

www.reuters.com

It is still traffic going to that port. Insurers already put it on suspension the traffic coverage base on previous grain deal. However even they acknowledge it is not total dead yet (grain corridors), until Russia attack the ships. Russia has not in total maritime war yet with Ukrainian sea lines. There's still room to escalate.

 

[Ananda]

Turkey might be concerned if shipping to Central Asia via the Volga-Don canal is disrupted. But on the other hand disrupting Russo-Turkish trade relations might be desirable from a western perspective too.

Correct me, but unless Ukrainian can secure a port in Azov sea again, I don't see how they can disrupt Volga-Don canal. Isn't this why Russian take a lot off effort to secure Azov Sea? All this effort on Maruiopol seems also to secure their in-land canal waterways exit toward Black Sea, and off course Crimean flank.

Let's see how they are going to answer Ukrainian drones from Nikolayev and Kherson.

 

[Feanor]

Correct me, but unless Ukrainian can secure a port in Azov sea again, I don't see how they can disrupt Volga-Don canal. Isn't this why Russian take a lot off effort to secure Azov Sea? All this effort on Maruiopol seems also to secure their in-land canal waterways exit toward Black Sea, and off course Crimean flank.

Let's see how they are going to answer Ukrainian drones from Nikolayev and Kherson.

They can disrupt traffic through the Kerch strait into the Don. Strikes against Russia-bound maritime traffic can make the entire shipping artery unsafe.

 

[KipPotapych]

All great responses above, but I would venture a guess that the guy read the like “stories” before, for the past 3 or so years, and is not going to be convinced on the Russian-Ukrainian war thread, lol. This is the reason I opted to pass on this discussion when he first mentioned it in a reply to my post.

Edit: This post was referring to an off-topic discussion that was moved to another thread.

 

[Ananda]

sorry, but the Danube doesn't go anywhere near Ukraine. Are you seriously suggesting th

Do some simple online check on Port of Izmail. Simple Google map checking will do Izmayilʹsʹkyy Morsʹkyy Vokzal · Luky Kapikrayana emb. 7, Izmail, Odessa Oblast, Ukraine, 68600 This is where most Ukrainian grain export goes, after nearly every maritime insurers stop covering insurance for ships to Odessa city port. This is the only port left in Odessa oblast for most grain maritime shipment that consider unhindered before (due to sharing Danube's border with NATO member Rumania).

Latest in Ukraine: Russian Attack Hits Izmail Grain Site

Ukrainian officials say air defenses down drones in Kyiv

www.voanews.com

This is why Rumanian authorities involve in clearing traffic jam in Danube, due to Russian attack on Izmail port facilities. This is why West and off course Ukrainian very upset on Russian attacks to the port, cause it is really clossing the Grain Corridor left for Ukrainian maritime export.

Still I do believe Russian has not attacking or physically stoping any ships traffic to the ports, yet (at least lately). Which means Russian can still escalate their grip on any traffic for this grain corridor. Especially for those 'Western' ships that still 'dare' to try entering the ports. This what I do see Russian can do to escalate, if Ukrainian continues attacking their Crimean ports, especially the oil export ones. This is seems also why Ukrainian attacking traffic to Novorossiysk (as before hasn't done yet) , as they seems try to "bargain" with Russian for Izmail.