Russia - General Discussion.

[contricusc]

We don't know what could have happen, we only know what actually happened. On the other hand, you could look at death's statistics to see what happened, like with heatwaves.

Yes, we know what happened, which is everyone got exposed to Covid despite all the lockdowns and closed borders. All the economic damage has been caused without any benefits. Now Covid is circulating freely and we no longer have lockdowns, closed borders and mask mandates. This is proof that the measures failed and after a few years everyone understood the futility of such insanity. What we got was two years of economic pain, travel restrictions and personal freedoms being abused with nothing to show for.

Sorry but the entire post makes zero sense whatsoever. The most obvious example is the last sentence of the first paragraph: The subsidies are a political choice, not a necessity or a cost of the war. This is a complete… rubbish, really. The subsidies (particularly and especially in this case) are a necessity because they eliminate or, rather, reduce the severity of the shock to the economy and functioning of the society. These that you do not consider to be costs are going to have to be repaid by the same society (perhaps a different generation(s)) and in multiplied terms due to the borrowing rates. However, these subsidies allowed this society to move through, over, and forward (at least for the time being anyway because this could be debated further) because the “government” is a single entity that is large enough and has the ability to borrow this astronomical amount of money on behalf of the said society. There could be questions about the use (or redistribution) of the funds and so on, but I do believe questioning the necessity or excluding these as costs is simply silly.

The subsidies are never a necessity. They are always a choice, usually a poor one. By subsidizing the cost of energy for the end user, you are artificially keeping a higher demand than what would happen in a market economy where the price influences demand. The cure for high prices is high prices, because it destroys demand. If the governments didn’t waste so much money on subsidies, the demand for gas in Europe would have fallen, and with it the price. The subsidies helped to keep the prices higher for longer.

I will stop here because we are going off topic, so we’ll have to agree to disagree on the economic implications of the war.

 

[swerve]

Yes, we know what happened, which is everyone got exposed to Covid despite all the lockdowns and closed borders. All the economic damage has been caused without any benefits. Now Covid is circulating freely and we no longer have lockdowns, closed borders and mask mandates. This is proof that the measures failed and after a few years everyone understood the futility of such insanity. What we got was two years of economic pain, travel restrictions and personal freedoms being abused with nothing to show for.

What we got was some respite while effective treatments were devised & vaccines developed. In the early months hospitals in many countries almost collapsed under the flood of sick people.

Now Covid is circulating freely and we no longer have lockdowns, closed borders and mask mandates.

Because most people have been thoroughly vaccinated, & for those who either haven't been, or who get seriously ill despite vaccines, there are now effective treatments. Haven't you been paying attention for the last three years?

If the governments didn’t waste so much money on subsidies, the demand for gas in Europe would have fallen, and with it the price. The subsidies helped to keep the prices higher for longer.

Again, you've not been paying attention. The demand for gas in Europe did fall. A lot.

 

[Redshift]

Most likely if Russian escalate to attack traffic on Danube Ports, it will be Western Ships. At this points attacking Western ships trafficking to Ukrainian ports, also for Russia is nothing to lose anymore.

Romania bids to clear Danube logjam after Ukraine attack

Romania expects around 30 ships from Ukraine to clear customs on the Danube River over the next two days as it bids to clear a logjam in the aftermath of Wednesday's Russian attack on Ukraine's main river port at Izmail.

www.reuters.com

It is still traffic going to that port. Insurers already put it on suspension the traffic coverage base on previous grain deal. However even they acknowledge it is not total dead yet (grain corridors), until Russia attack the ships. Russia has not in total maritime war yet with Ukrainian sea lines. There's still room to escalate.

I'm sorry, but the Danube doesn't go anywhere near Ukraine. Are you seriously suggesting th

@Redshift Check a map before making such a claim. It stops people from looking like an idiot.

Yes, we know what happened, which is everyone got exposed to Covid despite all the lockdowns and closed borders. All the economic damage has been caused without any benefits. Now Covid is circulating freely and we no longer have lockdowns, closed borders and mask mandates. This is proof that the measures failed and after a few years everyone understood the futility of such insanity. What we got was two years of economic pain, travel restrictions and personal freedoms being abused with nothing to show for.



The subsidies are never a necessity. They are always a choice, usually a poor one. By subsidizing the cost of energy for the end user, you are artificially keeping a higher demand than what would happen in a market economy where the price influences demand. The cure for high prices is high prices, because it destroys demand. If the governments didn’t waste so much money on subsidies, the demand for gas in Europe would have fallen, and with it the price. The subsidies helped to keep the prices higher for longer.

I will stop here because we are going off topic, so we’ll have to agree to disagree on the economic implications of the war.

You are a fucking idiot.

Most of the world is vaccinated, with ongoing programs. covid like almost all viruses has mutated to become less dangerous to it's host (this is a natural survival mechanism).

The lockdowns prevented the most serious variants proliferating, vaccines then reduced the effects, the virus mutated to become less harmful, that is what happened.

There is no need for the use of obscene language. Do it again and Moderator action will be assertive. You are awarded 6 demerit points for 6 months.

Ngatimozart.

 

[tonnyc]

Yes, we know what happened, which is everyone got exposed to Covid despite all the lockdowns and closed borders. All the economic damage has been caused without any benefits. Now Covid is circulating freely and we no longer have lockdowns, closed borders and mask mandates. This is proof that the measures failed and after a few years everyone understood the futility of such insanity. What we got was two years of economic pain, travel restrictions and personal freedoms being abused with nothing to show for.

I know this is off-topic but this is such stupidity I have to respond.

You're falling into the trap of treating the COVID-19 countermeasures as a binary. Either it succeeds in eradicating the COVID-19 virus and thus 100% success or it fails in eradicating the virus and thus a 100% failure. But life is not binary. The lockdown and social distancing don't stop the pandemy. It slows them down so that we can adapt. The vaccines do not give 100% immunity. But large scale statistics have proven that it reduces the severity of the sickness to something our healthcare system can manage. Like, goddamn, real life operates on a spectrum. A reduction in people ending up in ICU does not mean people stops going into ICU, but it can mean the difference between the ICU getting overwhelmed and the ICU managing by (if barely). And masks don't completely prevent transmission, but it does cut down the rate of transmission and thus slows down the rate of people getting sick.

WTF.

 

[Feanor]

All post regarding the cost of the war in Ukraine to the west and the implications this has for NATO defense policy, as well as comparing those costs to other events has been moved to this thread.

Conspiracy theory nonsense regarding COVID and personal insults hurled in defense thereof will not be tolerated. Personal insults in general are not appropriate and need to stop. Blanket warning to all involved.

 

[contricusc]

What we got was some respite while effective treatments were devised & vaccines developed. In the early months hospitals in many countries almost collapsed under the flood of sick people.

That’s because the first wave is always strong, since the population didn’t have previous exposure to the virus, and the people with the weakest immune systems are still alive. After the first wave of infections, the surviving population has gained resistance to the virus, and the oldest and weakest have died, so it is natural that futher waves are less severe. This would have happened with or without the lockdowns and the vaccines.

In Hong Kong for example, the lockdowns have isolated the population from Covid for more than a year, and when they finally got infected (during the much weaker Omicron variant), their hospitals were overwhelmed and almost collapsed despite the vaccines and the one year time they had to prepare. In the end, they got the same number of deaths per capita as many other countries that were not successful with their lockdowns.

The stats speak for themselves. Mexico, which never shut its borders and never stopped tourism (it had a huge tourism boom during the pandemic) has lower deaths per capita than the US, Colombia, Argentina, Peru or Brazil. This speaks volumes about the effectiveness of lockdowns and closing borders.

You are a fucking idiot.

Insulting me will not make you right. It just proves that truth hurts and the easiest coping mechanism for those who have been lied to is to insult the ones telling the truth.

It is much easier to accept a lie, than to accept that you have been lied to, so I am not surprised by your reaction.

 

[KipPotapych]

Lol. Pretty sure there was a warning on the last page as well as another right above your post.

Pretty sure those were two hints to move on.

 

[OPSSG]

While the numbers may look high, they are peanuts compared to the cost of the Covid pandemic. If the world has accepted economic losses of a much higher magnitude for a flu, it will have no problem to accept the cost of this war.

Here are some estimates of the costs of Covid:

$114 trillion for the world economy:

Covid-19 has so far cost the world as much as $114-trillion — and counting

It’s tempting to rely on pure economic statistics, like GDP, to assess the damage wrought on the global economy because of the Covid-19 pandemic so far. But there are other profound health and social costs that will be clear only in five to 10 years — or even decades’ time. What do we know now...

www.dailymaverick.co.za

$14 trillion for the US economy:

The COVID-19 pandemic cost the U.S. economy $14 trillion, new research finds

At the height of the pandemic, the survey indicates that airline travel fell by nearly 60%, indoor dining by 65% and in-store shopping by 43%.

fortune.com

If you compare the costs of Covid with the costs of this war, the war has been very cheap. Just dividing the $114 trillion estimate of Covid with the $2.8 trillion estimate for the war and you get a difference of 40 times! This means that the world can afford 40 more years of this war just to equal the costs of a flu…

My point is, if people accepted such outrageous losses for a flu, they will surely accept a lot more for a war, which is a much more serious issue.

@contricusc
The COVID-19 virus is not an influenza virus and such claims by anti vaxxers and others are misinformation. Try introducing such claims on here again will result in you facing a probable permanent ban.

Ngatimozart.

The moderators have perm banned @contricusc for being a nutcase & @JGCAC, for trying to tell moderators how to moderate again.

I don't mean to offend or put down any of the good folks running these excellent forums. But stuff like this is pretty lame:

View attachment 49002

source: post 1268.

A sign of the times, I guess.

1. Toptob’s post contains deliberate factual errors and he knows the drill for this wrist slap. This is his 2nd ‘red text’ warning for going off-topic in this thread and his 3rd time getting warning points (and for violating rule 11).

So "official" forces carrying out operations meant to terrorize a population are not terrorists, but military forces fighting for some geopolitical reasons are? So where the US soldiers in Iraq terrorists? What about the highly trained NZSAS fighters that New Zealand sent to Afghanistan? The Afghani's never asked ISAF to come to occupy their country for over a decade.

So is a major power exercising force for their geopolitical aims terrorism, or does that only count when you don't agree with their aims?

Actually you will find that the Afghanistan war is legal under Chapter VII Article 51 of the UN Charter. So NZ military involvement in Afghanistan was perfectly legal. If you care to check your history you will find that the US was subject to a mass terrorist attack by Al Qaeda on 11/9/2001 and Mohammed bin Laden and his followers were tracked to Afghanistan. When the then Taliban government refused to handover bin Laden and co after being requested to by the US government, an ultimatum was served which the Afghani government ignored, so the US and allied forces invaded in October 2001. On 5/12/2001 the UNSC unanimously adopted UNSC Resolution Number 1378, which authorised ISAF. NZDF and NZ Police were present under that authorisation.

2. Another moderator, ngatimozart, provided factual corrections to Toptob’s post on NZDF’s legal mandate to operate in Afghanistan. I note that deliberately posting false info is trolling, given the fact that the UN Security Council has passed a number of relevant resolutions on Iraq, in particular 1500 (2003), 1546 (2004), 1557 (2004), 1619 (2005), 1700 (2006), 1770 (2007), 1830 (2008), 1883 (2009), 1936 (2010), 2001 (2011), 2061 (2012), 2110 (2013), 2169 (2014), 2233 (2015), 2299 (2016), 2379 (2017), 2421 (2018), 2522 (2020) and reiterating resolution 2107 (2013) on the situation between Iraq and Kuwait, and as set forth in 2367 (2017), and 2576 (2021). The last UNSC resolution renewed the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) till 27 May 2022.

3. @JGCAC, no offence taken. If you don’t like moderation, we can ban you as a next step. The Moderators have spoken — observe the forum rules, follow the directions given or face sanctions.

4. No reply is necessary.

The Mod team will guard our discretion & given that these 2 members don’t want to follow prior red text warnings given — they have been banned.

 

[Redshift]

That’s because the first wave is always strong, since the population didn’t have previous exposure to the virus, and the people with the weakest immune systems are still alive. After the first wave of infections, the surviving population has gained resistance to the virus, and the oldest and weakest have died, so it is natural that futher waves are less severe. This would have happened with or without the lockdowns and the vaccines.

In Hong Kong for example, the lockdowns have isolated the population from Covid for more than a year, and when they finally got infected (during the much weaker Omicron variant), their hospitals were overwhelmed and almost collapsed despite the vaccines and the one year time they had to prepare. In the end, they got the same number of deaths per capita as many other countries that were not successful with their lockdowns.

The stats speak for themselves. Mexico, which never shut its borders and never stopped tourism (it had a huge tourism boom during the pandemic) has lower deaths per capita than the US, Colombia, Argentina, Peru or Brazil. This speaks volumes about the effectiveness of lockdowns and closing borders.



Insulting me will not make you right. It just proves that truth hurts and the easiest coping mechanism for those who have been lied to is to insult the ones telling the truth.

It is much easier to accept a lie, than to accept that you have been lied to, so I am not surprised by your reaction.

No the truth doesn't hurt, you are spouting complete drivel, that is what hurts.

 

[swerve]

I'm sorry, but the Danube doesn't go anywhere near Ukraine.

Look at a map. Ukraine has a border on the northern branch of the Danube where it flows through the DanubeDelta. Look up the town of Izmail - in Ukraine, on the Danube, & if look across the river you see Romania -
Google Maps

Izmail - Wikipedia - a Danube river port, in Ukraine.

 

[swerve]

The stats speak for themselves. Mexico, which never shut its borders and never stopped tourism (it had a huge tourism boom during the pandemic) has lower deaths per capita than the US, Colombia, Argentina, Peru or Brazil. This speaks volumes about the effectiveness of lockdowns and closing borders.

No, it speaks volumes about the accuracy of Mexico's statistics.

The Economist commissioned a statistical exercise to estimate excess deaths during the pandemic, to even out the biases & inaccuracies in national reporting of deaths. According to that, officially reported COVID-19 deaths to date have been, per 100,000 of population -

Brazil 327.3
Colombia 275.6
USA 333.2

Mexico 262.2

Recent official data for Argentina & Peru aren't available, but Peru had been publishing estimates based on excess deaths in any case, officially accepting that they gave a better idea of COVID-19 deaths than the deaths reported as due to it. They aren't alone: a leak from Russia in late 2020 (a senior official accidentally said it in public) revealed that internally, the government was using excess deaths as a more reliable measure of COVID-19 deaths than death certificates, & their working figure was much higher than the published number.

Estimated excess deaths

Argentina 320-430
Brazil 400-430
Colombia 340-390
Peru 580-660
USA 390-410

Mexico 490-590

So Mexico is actually second worst in that set, after Peru.

Other estimates by expert statisticians tend to agree.

The pandemic’s true death toll

 

[Rob c]

The John Hopkins Data supports the above, with the lock down countries down the bottom of the list.

Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

How does mortality differ across countries? Examining the number of deaths per confirmed case and per 100,000 population. A global comparison.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[John Fedup]

No, it speaks volumes about the accuracy of Mexico's statistics.

The Economist commissioned a statistical exercise to estimate excess deaths during the pandemic, to even out the biases & inaccuracies in national reporting of deaths. According to that, officially reported COVID-19 deaths to date have been, per 100,000 of population -

Brazil 327.3
Colombia 275.6
USA 333.2

Mexico 262.2

Recent official data for Argentina & Peru aren't available, but Peru had been publishing estimates based on excess deaths in any case, officially accepting that they gave a better idea of COVID-19 deaths than the deaths reported as due to it. They aren't alone: a leak from Russia in 2020 (a senior official accidentally said it in public) revealed that internally, the government was using excess deaths as a more reliable measure of COVID-19 deaths than death certificates, & their working figure was much higher than the published number.

Estimated excess deaths

Argentina 320-430
Brazil 400-430
Colombia 340-390
Peru 580-660
USA 390-410

Mexico 490-590

So Mexico is actually second worst in that set, after Peru.

Other estimates by expert statisticians tend to agree.

The pandemic’s true death toll

Excess deaths in Mexico… how accurate? Depending on cartel rivalry, pretty variable. How many hanging dismembered bodies were attributed to Covid? Sort of like how many tourists are killed each year in Mexico?

 

[Feanor]

You know who else has very low COVID death statistics? The Congo, Nigeria, Tadjikistan, and South Sudan. No doubt they all made very wise choices in their pandemic response policies. Turkmenistan has a COVID death rate of 0 apparently. Clearly the best way to handle COVID is to build golden statues and rename the days of the week.

Statistics from underdeveloped countries and authoritarian regimes are inherently problematic. Even when they don't lie intentionally, they do a terrible job of gathering data, often not because they don't want to but because they literally can't.

 

[Ananda]

Put it here, as this thread as there's been talk on how big World Economy. Also the figures in this diagram, use Nominal GDP being projected by IMF for end 2023.

Do remember that there's difference perception on Nominal GDP vs PPP GDP. This is more related to how far one economy domestics outputs influence by global trade. The more one economy relies on their own industrial and materials resources, the more PPP GDP shown real economic capabilities. Vice Versa with economy that their domestics relies more on Global Trade, then Nominal GDP more reflecting their economy size.

Related to this thread, If Russian domestics including their MIC output relies more on domestic resources, then PPP is matter more, same thing can be said for China. This is one of reasons why non OECD economies ussualy have bigger PPP GDP then nominal ones.

Off course US different stories, as their currency is basically still the widest use currency in Global Trade. Thus whether coming from domestics resources or Global Trade resources, not matter much. Everyone else in OECD ussualy reflected more on their Nominal GDP.

 

[Larry_L]

Lately the Russian ruble has declined to slightly more than a penny which is 1/100th of a US dollar. According to one report it is expected to stabilize around that amount for the last quarter of 2023. This does not help the average citizen in Russia. Those on the edge of poverty will suffer the most. This is true for a lesser extent for many countries in the world. Here Igor Lipsits gives his take on the Russian economy.

Off the charts: How the rouble's downfall dispelled fantasies about a “brilliant financial policy”

The rouble has experienced a decline of over 30% against the dollar since the start of the year. The euro has firmly maintained a position above 100 roubles, and the dollar is edging closer to this threshold. Dr. Igor Lipsits, an accomplished economist, firmly believes that due to recent...

theins.ru

Many Russian supporters keep stating that the west cannot keep supporting Ukraine. Putin's waiting game is supposed to outlast the west, but is this true. Only time will tell, however when we look at who benefits from this war, we see that the big spenders in political contributions are raking in record profits. The energy sector is leading the pack, and the major defense contractors are also doing well. Inflation is costing the common people, but they only have an opinion. The large political contributions come from the big corporations.

The energy sector are the big winners.

Crisis year 2022 brought $134 billion in excess profit to the West’s five largest oil and gas companies | Global Witness

The global oil and gas industry saw historic gains from the fallout of the war in Ukraine, a global energy crisis and runaway climate change, as millions suffer the consequences.

www.globalwitness.org

A broader view on who is growing.

This is who is cashing in on the war in Ukraine

Critics suggest investors are promoting the disruption that they then benefit from – while also slowing a move towards green energy

www.opendemocracy.net

The business of war.

Who’s benefiting from Russia's war on Ukraine? Arms dealers and manufacturers

The war in Ukraine has jacked the global arms trade, fueling a new appetite for materiel not just in Moscow and Kyiv but also around the world.

www.latimes.com

Even Russian Billionaires benefit.

Russian Billionaires Shut Out From World Spend Fortunes at Home

A clutch of Russia’s top tycoons are reaping billions of dollars worth of dividends, getting payouts from their companies even in the face of sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Ananda]

Even Russian Billionaires benefit.

Billioners (as group not individuals only) always can turn crisis to opportunity.

Forbes 2024 Billionaires List - The Richest People In The World Ranked

Forbes presents the 2024 World's Billionaires List. View the richest people in the world and learn their net worth, age, country of residence, source of wealth, and more.

www.forbes.com

Even with Covid global billioners still control more that USD 12 Trillion, which with Global economy only slightly more than USD 100 Trillion, means those one thousands more individuals control around one ninth of Global wealth.

That's not counting the mere millioners that make less then one tenth percent individuals. Some can argued Russian billioners/oligarchs control more in Russia then billioners in Democracy. However when you control very disproportionately of wealth, you can influences any type of government or society. No illusion on that.

Billioners in developing countries off course control more of national wealth, then higher income countries. Even between developing countries the difference is shown. Chinese billioners worth USD 2 Trillion in economy of USD 19.4 T (close to 10%), while Indian billioners control USD 675 Bio in economy of USD 3.7 T (close to 20%). So what type of your government, actually not matter much on Billioners control.

It is debatable on whose really control the World, Politicians or Billioners. One thing for sure, even in democracies, their control is much much bigger then any average citizens group.

 

[swerve]

Excess deaths in Mexico… how accurate? Depending on cartel rivalry, pretty variable. How many hanging dismembered bodies were attributed to Covid? Sort of like how many tourists are killed each year in Mexico?

Excess deaths are relatively accurate. It's total deaths minus expected, & even Mexican murder rates are dwarfed by Mexico's covid death rate. It's much easier to count total deaths than attrbute deaths to specific medical causes accurately.

 

[Ananda]

War in Ukraine: The revenge of the Global South

Unwilling to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine or apply sanctions targeting Moscow, the Global South has emerged as a geopolitical 'continent.'

www.lemonde.fr

The Global South is on the rise – but what exactly is the Global South?

Terms like ‘Third World’ and ‘developing nations’ have long fallen out of fashion.

theconversation.com

https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/opinion_cidob/2023/global_south_does_not_buy_western_stance_on_ukraine

This mostly articles coming from Western source, talk on how Global South basically stay on the fence in this War, but also still engaging with Russia. This different then some US and UK pundits and think tank that saying Russian International demises.

Well yes, Russia is diminishing with Western and Allies. However doesn't automatically mean Russian standing already down against non west especially wit Global South.

This seems against thinking some think tank like carnagie that clearly think Russia international standing down. Seems they are part of think tank that still believes, Western sanctions matter to rest of Global South on calculating their relationship with Russia.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/04/26/will-invasion-of-ukraine-change-russia-africa-relations-pub-89596

While some in Euro Zone shown more realistic assesment on why Global South have their own agenda on Russia, and will not follow West 'lead'. Gone the days when West can dictate what they want from Global South.

The War in Ukraine, Democracy, and the Global South: We Have a Problem - ICDS

In the last few months, there has been a flurry of discussion about the lack of support that the United States and its European allies have received from the Global South. To some, its reaction to the war raging in Ukraine might even seem counterproductive. But why did we ever expect it to be...

icds.ee

The Global South Is a Geopolitical Reality | Internationale Politik Quarterly

Caught in a Western, Eurocentric world view, the European Union has not yet woken up to the fact that it needs to fundamentally change its approach to developing countries.

ip-quarterly.com

Will this means Russia will go down hill whatever the results of the war (as many in West think), or Russia can rebound capitalize their relationship with Global South ? Well it is still debatable, but I'm not going to discount yet, as become Western enemies now is not the end of the world.

In the end one of the assesment I believe is right. This is already a multipolar world. West has't got the last call as it use to have, until a decade more ago. Some in West already see that coming, while some others believe West POV still what matter for the rest of the World.

 

[Dead Money]

War in Ukraine: The revenge of the Global South

Unwilling to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine or apply sanctions targeting Moscow, the Global South has emerged as a geopolitical 'continent.'

www.lemonde.fr

The Global South is on the rise – but what exactly is the Global South?

Terms like ‘Third World’ and ‘developing nations’ have long fallen out of fashion.

theconversation.com

https://www.cidob.org/publicaciones/serie_de_publicacion/opinion_cidob/2023/global_south_does_not_buy_western_stance_on_ukraine

This mostly articles coming from Western source, talk on how Global South basically stay on the fence in this War, but also still engaging with Russia. This different then some US and UK pundits and think tank that saying Russian International demises.

Well yes, Russia is diminishing with Western and Allies. However doesn't automatically mean Russian standing already down against non west especially wit Global South.

This seems against thinking some think tank like carnagie that clearly think Russia international standing down. Seems they are part of think tank that still believes, Western sanctions matter to rest of Global South on calculating their relationship with Russia.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/04/26/will-invasion-of-ukraine-change-russia-africa-relations-pub-89596

While some in Euro Zone shown more realistic assesment on why Global South have their own agenda on Russia, and will not follow West 'lead'. Gone the days when West can dictate what they want from Global South.

The War in Ukraine, Democracy, and the Global South: We Have a Problem - ICDS

In the last few months, there has been a flurry of discussion about the lack of support that the United States and its European allies have received from the Global South. To some, its reaction to the war raging in Ukraine might even seem counterproductive. But why did we ever expect it to be...

icds.ee

The Global South Is a Geopolitical Reality | Internationale Politik Quarterly

Caught in a Western, Eurocentric world view, the European Union has not yet woken up to the fact that it needs to fundamentally change its approach to developing countries.

ip-quarterly.com

Will this means Russia will go down hill whatever the results of the war (as many in West think), or Russia can rebound capitalize their relationship with Global South ? Well it is still debatable, but I'm not going to discount yet, as become Western enemies now is not the end of the world.

In the end one of the assesment I believe is right. This is already a multipolar world. West has't got the last call as it use to have, until a decade more ago. Some in West already see that coming, while some others believe West POV still what matter for the rest of the World.

If one accepts the classical comparative advantage argument that trade between the West and Russia enriches both parties, then one must also accept the corollary that absence of trade would harm both parties. I believe harm is observable now, and will continue to occur - only the degree of harm in the medium to long term is in question.

Western voices expecting impoverished nations to forgo trade while suffering energy and food crisis were always hovering somewhere on a spectrum from naïve to callous absurdity. But a lack of consistency of expectation within Western Nations is to be expected - no nation or group is a monolith.

Several of the articles above complain about India or other parties buying Russian oil, as if the G7 didn't deliberately structure its price cap expecting and even hoping that nations with refinery capacity would buy Urals on the cheap and take the profit margins on value add services - while depressing global energy prices.

The Smoke and Mirrors of Western Oil Sanctions

The global south buying oil from Russia isn't a flaw in the price cap - it's a feature.