The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Redshift]

Do some simple online check on Port of Izmail. Simple Google map checking will do Izmayilʹsʹkyy Morsʹkyy Vokzal · Luky Kapikrayana emb. 7, Izmail, Odessa Oblast, Ukraine, 68600 This is where most Ukrainian grain export goes, after nearly every maritime insurers stop covering insurance for ships to Odessa city port. This is the only port left in Odessa oblast for most grain maritime shipment that consider unhindered before (due to sharing Danube's border with NATO member Rumania).

Latest in Ukraine: Russian Attack Hits Izmail Grain Site

Ukrainian officials say air defenses down drones in Kyiv

www.voanews.com

This is why Rumanian authorities involve in clearing traffic jam in Danube, due to Russian attack on Izmail port facilities. This is why West and off course Ukrainian very upset on Russian attacks to the port, cause it is really clossing the Grain Corridor left for Ukrainian maritime export.

Still I do believe Russian has not attacking or physically stoping any ships traffic to the ports, yet (at least lately). Which means Russian can still escalate their grip on any traffic for this grain corridor. Especially for those 'Western' ships that still 'dare' to try entering the ports. This what I do see Russian can do to escalate, if Ukrainian continues attacking their Crimean ports, especially the oil export ones. This is seems also why Ukrainian attacking traffic to Novorossiysk (as before hasn't done yet) , as they seems try to "bargain" with Russian for Izmail.

Once more you see things in reverse.

Russia is continually escalating and Ukraine is responding.

I honestly don't know how any country whose ports and capital have been under almost constant missile attack for nearly a year can be accused of escalating by responding in kind by attacking it's it's invader in similar fashion.

 

[Ananda]

more you see things in reverse.

Russia is continually escalating and Ukraine is responding.

No I'm not. War is always one side escalating other reacting, and vice versa. It is always action and reaction. Offensive and counteroffensive changing places. Escalation is part of normal progession of war cycles. Nothing to do whose invade.

Btw, already see now Danube is the border between Ukraine and Rumania?

 

[Redshift]

No I'm not. War is always one side escalating other reacting, and vice versa. It is always action and reaction. Offensive and counteroffensive changing places. Escalation is part of normal progession of war cycles. Nothing to do whose invade.

You imply that Ukraine escalates the war, this is not the case Ukraine can hardly escalate when it simply does what Russia are already doing that is my issue with your post.

Is their any military action that Ukraine has taken that hasn't already been committed by Russia?

You talk about Russia escalating in response, so far Russia has not really needed any reason to escalate, it just keeps doing it, sure it may say that it is because "Ukraine did xxxx" but that is pretty much just propaganda.

The only country that has taken offensive action is Russia.


Yes, I had forgotten just how far Ukraine spreads down the coast, only a very small portion of the Danube delta is in Ukraine though the vast majority is in Romania.

 

[Larry_L]

Ukraine is pursuing a strategy to isolate Crimea as much as possible. I believe all the bridges have been hit, as well as one of the landing ships that have been used as a ferry. For several weeks the difficulty of getting to and from Crimea has steadily become more difficult. This impacts both the supply chain, and public opinion. Time will tell which of the two is most important. Russia has been proactive in backing up their logistical routes by improving all routes between Crimea and Ukraine. One of these efforts was the route across the Arabat Spit which has been under construction for months. This is the latest route struck by Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1688191801474076672

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1688200173749489665

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1688166827724083200

If you zoom out on this link you can see why this is only a backup route for logistics. I suspect it is quite popular with vacationers.

46°09'36.8"N 34°47'43.8"E · 46.160222, 34.795500

www.google.com

Another data point on Russian casualties. This can be figured different ways, but does not look good.

Top Russian general leaks number of elite casualties in Ukraine war

The Kremlin scrambled to delete a video in which General Colonel Mikhail Teplinsky revealed the number of casualties sustained by his unit in the war.

www.newsweek.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1688121762381234176

 

[swerve]

No I'm not. War is always one side escalating other reacting, and vice versa. It is always action and reaction. Offensive and counteroffensive changing places. Escalation is part of normal progession of war cycles. Nothing to do whose invade.

Btw, already see now Danube is the border between Ukraine and Rumania?

Part of the border. There's another stretch of border between northern Romania & SW Ukraine, between Moldova & Hungary. That may have been what Redshift was thinking of.

 

[KipPotapych]

I cancelled me subscription to The Economist and can’t read the entire article, but found even the beginning to be interesting. The reason is that it suggests that the Russians may have, in fact, expected a bloody battle, as opposed to simply rolling through Ukraine as there was planning in place with the field hospitals being set up, blood drives, as well preparation of the medical personnel. This, however, makes the approach they took to the invasion even more strange and mind boggling. This is the first time I am seeing anything reported on subject, but surely could have missed prior reporting. For those of you who may be able to read the full article:

What Ukraine’s bloody battlefield is teaching medics

Western armies have not dealt with mass casualties since the 1950s

www.economist.com

 

[Ananda]

imply that Ukraine escalates the war, this is not the case Ukraine can hardly escalate when it simply does what Russia are already doing that is my issue with your post

Escalations again has nothing to do with whose invade and starting the war. Again escalation is just of part of War cycles. Nothing to do with whose the agressor is. Ukrainian doing counter offensive is part of their effort to escalate the war on retaking territory. Something that you seems mixing and jumbled between escalations and aggression, which's two different thing. That's my problem with your post.

That may have been what Redshift was thinking of.

Well he should do little research first before posting. Nearly everyone that had bit interest in Ukraine war knows Ukrainian Danube port that's been attacked by Russia. The only port that basically use as most of recent Ukrainian grain export come out from. That's pretty basic.

 

[Redshift]

Escalations again has nothing to do with whose invade and starting the war. Again escalation is just of part of War cycles. Nothing to do with whose the agressor is. Ukrainian doing counter offensive is part of their effort to escalate the war on retaking territory. Something that you seems mixing and jumbled between escalations and aggression, which's two different thing. That's my problem with your post.



Well he should do little research first before posting. Nearly everyone that had bit interest in Ukraine war knows Ukrainian Danube port that's been attacked by Russia. The only port that basically use as most of recent Ukrainian grain export come out from. That's pretty basic.

Escalation is not the correct word for Ukraine responding to Russian aggression, and certainly not escalation when Russia has already done the same thing.

I understand that English is not your first language so, perhaps, there is a misunderstanding about meanings.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Zaporozhye.

Not a whole lot has happened. The fighting at Zaporozhye has basically been at a standstill since Russia withdrew from Staromayorskoe but Ukraine hasn't quite managed to capture the entire village, holding part of it. Ukraine's second echelon is clearly not committed in its entirety, we have yet to see Strykers or Challengers on the front line, but it appears most of Ukraine's forces have been utilized and no breakthrough has occurred. Additional incremental gains are possible. Strikes against Russian logistics continue. We have no clear picture of whether those are having an effect or not.

Ka-52 strikes, Zaporozhye area.

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Colonelcassad

Асы-снайпера разведывательно-ударных вертолетов Ка-52 продолжают множить объекты недвижимости на Запорожском направлении. Даже в движении. @sashakots

t.me

Colonelcassad

Жарко приходится украинским боевикам на Запорожском направлении. На кадрах — экипаж разведывательно-ударного вертолета Ка-52 наносит разрушительный удар по замаскированной в лесополосе бронетехнике ВСУ. Подписаться на IZ.RU

t.me

Good footage of that Ukrainian BMP-1 company that was destroyed near Rabotino.

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Two Ukrainian BMP-1s knocked out near Rabotino and a BMP-2. They appear unrelated to the company riding BMP-1s that got wrecked earlier.

Военный Осведомитель

Ещё две БМП-1 украинской армии, подбитые в результате июльских боев за подступы к Работино. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-2 - уничтожена Восточнее с. Работино в Токмакском районе Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.449034, 35.878308) Подбита на участке обороны 282-го отд. стрелкового батальона. Источник ; №2

t.me

2 Ukrainian M113, a YPR-765, and a BREM-1 destroyed near Rabotino.

Рубрика от Ледка

M113 - уничтожен Юго-восточнее села Работино в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.469440, 35.856140) Сгорел после детонации БК в соседнем БТР Бyцефал. Источник ; №2

t.me

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vk.com

Рубрика от Ледка

YPR-765A1 - уничтожен Южнее села Новоданиловка в Запорожской области. Геопривязка: (47.496250, 35.813806) БMП ВСУ подбита бойцами 291-го МСП ВС РФ Датировано : 15.03.2023. Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

БРЭМ-1 - уничтожена Юго-западнее с. Малые Щербаки в Запорожской области. Геопривзяка LA: (47.531570, 35.522370) Расчет ББ Х-51 58-й ОА успешно поразил БPЭМ ВСУ Источник ; №2 #Ланцет

t.me

A Ukrainian couple of BTR-4s destroyed near Rabotino. Note this is the first we've seen of these uniquely Ukrainian BTR variants in this offensive. It's likely a new unit is in action using them.

Рубрика от Ледка

БТР-4Е - уничтожен Юго-восточнее с. Работино в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.469260, 35.856280) Расчет Х-52 из «Осман'а» добивает наехавший на мину БTP "Буцефал" НГУ. Источник ; №2 ; №3 #Ланцет

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

БТР-4Е - уничтожен Юго-восточнее села Работино в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.469310, 35.856210) Расчет Х-52 из «Осман’а» сжег второй наехавший на мину БTP "Буцефал" НГУ. Источник ; №2 #Ланцет

t.me

A completely burned out Leo-2A6 near Rabotino, we can see the blow-out panels worked, likely saving the crew.

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vk.com

A Ukrainian T-64 and 3 T-72M1 destroyed near Rabotino.

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-72М1 - уничтожен Юго-западнее села Малые Щербаки в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.53114, 35.52217) Зaявлен, успешный удар по танку с КМТ-6, ББ 'Ланцет' Источник #Ланцет

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-72АВ - уничтожен Восточнее села Работино в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.466150, 35.890200) Танк подбит бойцами 282-го отдельного батальона. Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-64БВ - уничтожен Восточнее с. Работино в Токмакском районе Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.466090, 35.890540) Танк демилитаризован на участке обороны 282-го отдельного батальона 58-й ОА. Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-72М1 - уничтожен Восточнее с. Работино в Токмакском районе Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.444830, 35.876920) Подбили танк бойцы 71-го гв. МСП при поддержке бойцов 58-й ОА. Датировано: 26.07.2023. Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

A Leo2A4 destroyed near Malaya Tokamachka, by an FPV drone, as part of a group of wrecked vehicles.

Рубрика от Ледка

Leopard 2A4 - уничтожен Южнее нас-го пункта Малая Токмачка в Запорожской области. Геопривзяка LA: (47.491886, 35.942371) Успешный удар FPV-дроном БОБР’а в оставленный танк. Датировано: 10.06.2023. Источник ; №2 #FPV

t.me

A destroyed Bradley near Malaya Tokamachka.

Рубрика от Ледка

M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley Б/н №262 - уничтожена Возле с. Малая Токмачка в Ореховском районе Запорожской области. Подбита бойцами 58-ой ОА, обстоятельства поражения неизвестны. Оригинал ID LostArmour

t.me

Russian Ka-52 operations near Staromayorskoe. Note the Mi-17 flying low-altitude nearby likely ready to evacuate the crew if the helo goes down.

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Colonelcassad

Работа экипажа разведывательно-ударного вертолета Ка-52 "Аллигатор" по колонне украинской бронетехники на окраине Старомайорского на Южно-Донецком направлении. Видео: @dugout_uncle_zhora

t.me

A Ukrainian BMP-1 destroyed near Staromayorskoe.

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-1 - уничтожена Западнее с. Старомайорское в Великоновоселковском районе Донецкой области. Привязка: (47.756515, 36.769110) Подбитая артиллеристами БМП была добита парой сбросов с коптера. Источник #Сброс

t.me

A Ukrainian Kipri MRAP knocked out near Staromayorskoe. Note we've seen these vehicles used in this area before.

Рубрика от Ледка

BMC 350-16Z Kirpi Б/н №319 - поврежден В северной части села Старомайорское Донецкой области. Геопривязка: (47.756650, 36.797590) Обстоятельства потери ВСУ этого MRAP, не установлены Источник

t.me

A panorama of Staromayorskoe. The village is in ruins, Ukrainian forces are either hiding or absent.

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Russian forces evacuating a captured Mastiff of Ukraine's 37th Marines, likely Novodonestkoe area, though other sources claim near Orekhov.

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Colonelcassad

Эвакуация в тыл трофейной британской бронемашины Mastiff PPV военнослужащими 37 гв. омсбр на Ореховском направлении. @rezhimbe

t.me

Another Ukrainian T-64BV hit, location and context unclear.

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-64БВ - поражен В Запорожской области. Расчет Изделия типа: Х-51 поразил танк ВСУ в посадке Источник #Ланцет

t.me

Allegedly a Ukrainian mortar position getting hit by a Russian quadcopter munition drop. Note we can't tell what's getting hit but it's a substantial explosion, which could well be mortar shells stored at a position.

Colonelcassad

Мотострелки 503 полка уничтожают минометный расчет ВСУ на Запорожском направлении @za_froht

t.me

Ukrainian M113 getting hit by an ATGM, Zaporozhye area.

Colonelcassad

Расчет ПТРК 127 мсд уничтожил украинский БТР в Запорожской области. @vorposte

t.me

A large assortment of destroyed BMP-1s. Unclear which of them are part of that wrecked company we saw earlier.

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-1 Б/н Б/н №0876 О/з ▲3 - уничтожена В Запорожской области. БMП ВСУ, вероятно, была подбита бойцами 58-ой ОА Оригинал ; ID LostArmour

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

На TG-канале публикуется техника, потерянная вооруженными силами Украины в зоне проведения СВО. Карта, аналитика и графики потерь: https://clck.ru/3AhtVB Присылайте ваши материалы в бот: @RL_feedback_bot Поддержать: https://boosty.to/rubric_lossesvsu/

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-1 - уничтожена Восточнее села Работино в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.466040, 35.890250) БMП подбита на участке обороны 282-го ОБ ВС РФ. Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-1 - уничтожена Восточнее с. Работино в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.466040, 35.890030) Так же сожжена на участке ответсвенности 282-го ОБ. Источник ; №2 ; №3

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

БМП-1 - уничтожена Возле с. Работино в Ореховском районе Запорожской области. Подбита расчетом ПТРК Корнет из состава 58-й ОА. Источник

t.me

A Kozak-2 armored car destroyed in Zaporozhye. Exact location and context unclear.

Рубрика от Ледка

«Козак-2М1» - уничтожен В Запорожской области. Обстоятельства демилитаризации бронеавтомобиля неизвестны. Источник ID LostArmour

t.me

A Bradley, Humvee, and Leopard, knocked out/destroyed, Zaporozhye region.

Colonelcassad

Подбитые БМП М2 Bradley, бронеавтомобиль HMMVW и Leopard 2A6 ВСУ на Запорожском направлении. @voenacher

t.me

A destroyed M113, Zaporozhye, KIA crew nearby. Warning footage of corpses.

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vk.com

Damage to the Chongar bridge from Crimea to Kherson region. Another Ukrainian strike took place. There is a temptation to consider this analogous to Ukrainian strikes against the Antonov bridge and Kahovka dam, but it's important to note that this is out of artillery and MLRS range. I.e. only expensive air-launched cruise missiles can be used against it. At least one Storm Shadow was shot down near it, suggesting the situation is comparable in so far as Russia can shoot down some but not all inbounds. This raises the complexity and cost of strikes but does not prevent them. It remains to be seen whether the greater distance of the strike, as well as recent Russian strikes against the base the Su-24s are operating out of can counter the clear intent.

Прилеты по Чонгарскому мосту

Противник после мощных ночных ракетных ударов ВС РФ, ответил ударами по Чонгарскому мосту. В итоге, проделал дырки в мосту, поврежден один из пролетов + прилегающий газопровод. 1 или 2 ракеты упали рядом. Ремонт займет некоторое время, движение по поврежденному мосту временно приостановлено,…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

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vk.com

Ukraine has also hit the bridge Tonkiy, which connects Genichensk to the Arbatskiy peninsula.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ ударили 12 ракетами по мосту через пролив Тонкий, соединяющий город Геническ с Арабатской стрелкой, сообщил врио главы Херсонской области Владимир Сальдо. Девять снарядов сбила наша ПВО. Пострадал один мирный житель, который проезжал по мосту во время прилёта, также перебит газопровод из...

t.me

Ukraine evacuates a damaged Bradley. One thing Ukraine has done very well is evacuating damaged and destroyed vehicles. Until fairly recently Russia simply hadn't bothered targeting Ukrainian evacuation assets systematically. This has changed in recent months, but so far it hasn't broken the effort.

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[Feanor]

Oskol Front.

On the Oskol front Russia's advance has temporarily halted, with some minor gains at Novoslovskoe, the ruins of which Russia has finally captured, and some incremental advances in the woods of Kremennaya. There are some reports of Ukrainian counter-attacks, but those also appear to be fairly minor. The continued attacks along various axes without any clear strategic goals to me continues to suggest that Russia isn't really trying to do anything major here, other then draw Ukrainian resources away from Zaporozhye, and make opportunistic gains.

Рыбарь

❗️ Бои у Новоселовского обстановка по состоянию на 19.00 5 августа 2023 года В результате нескольких дней штурма российские военнослужащие сумели освободить село Новоселовское, бои за которое шли последние несколько месяцев. От самого населенного пункта практически ничего не осталось, большая...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/08/05/20230805201739-6980ac0d.jpg?utm_source=t.me&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=t.me&utm_referrer=t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Сватовский участок: Бои у Кармазиновки обстановка к исходу 4 августа 2023 года Вечером штурмовые отряды ВСУ на четырех танках и шести БМП атаковали позиции 21 мотострелковой бригады ВС РФ, попытавшись закрепиться на высоте и выбить российские подразделения с Кармазиновского выступа. В...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/08/04/20230804225651-9b320a85.jpg

Russia taking out a rare Ukrainian Zoopark-3 counter-battery radar near Kupyansk.

Рубрика от Ледка

1Л220УК Зоопарк-3 - уничтожен В Купянском районе Харьковской области. Расчет БпЛА Ланцет поразил замаскированную контрбатарейную РЛС ВСУ. Источник ID LostArmour #Ланцет

t.me

Russian Ka-52 strike allegedly against a Ukrainian BTR, near Kupyansk. Up until now Ka-52s have been mostly on the Zaporozhye front.

Colonelcassad

Кадры работы армейской авиации Западной группировки На Купянском направлении управляемой ракетой "Вихрь" уничтожен БТР ВСУ. @razved_dozor

t.me

Ukrainian infantry getting hit near Novoselovskoe. The village is now finally in Russian hands.

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Russian FPV drone strike against allegedly a Ukrainian position near Novoselovskoe.

Colonelcassad

Операторы FPV-дронов 1 та кошмарят позиции ВСУ под Новоселовским. @razved_dozor

t.me

Russian forces have captured a knocked out Roshel Senator armored car near Kremennaya.

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vk.com

Ukrainian VAB flips over near Kremennaya. We haven't seen these vehicles here before. When coupled with the recent appearance of CV90s in the area, it's clear some Ukrainian reserves are getting pulled to the Oskol front.

Colonelcassad

Бронетранспортер VAB (4×4) украинских формирований, поставленный из Франции в качестве военной помощи немного "прилег отдохнуть" в лесах под Кременной. @ChDambiev

t.me

Other interesting tidbits.

Russia struck the positions of Ukrainian btln Karpatskaya Sech. The unit has some foreign volunteers. The strike destroyed a captured Tigr-M, as well as a number of trucks and cars. Note normally we don't footage of this kind, as Russian BDA tends to be mediocre, and Ukraine doesn't release this kind of footage. It's likely many of Russia's strikes using gliding bombs have had this kind of effect, but we simply haven't had the footage to confirm. It's not apocalyptic, exactly, but it suggests the combined impact of Russian strikes has likely had some effect.

Colonelcassad

Около недели назад российские войска нанесли удар по расположению боевиков нацбата "Карпатская Сечь" В сети появились фото последствий удара, также сообщается о множестве погибших нацистов и иностранных наемников. @razved_dozor

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

ГАЗ Тигр-М - уничтожен В Донецкой области. В ходе (ракетно-бомбового) удара пoражен бронеавтомобиль опб “Карпатская Сечь” ВСУ [Ранее, затрофеен у ВС РФ] Source: Facebook

t.me

Russian strike in Khmel'nitskaya region was apparently aimed at storage facilities near a Ukrainian airbase. It's likely Russia suspected munitions stored there, including likely western cruise missiles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russian T-55 knocked out. What's curious is that the damage is to the front of the hull, suggesting it was being used as a tank rather then as indirect fire. It also has an RPG stuck in its roof cage illustrating both the effectiveness of the kit, and raising serious questions about what circumstances would lead an RPG to come in towards the tank at that angle. Was it a circus acrobat firing in mid-jump?

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Но свою задачу выполнил

Да, Т-55 не повезло. Но мангал отработал. Что в нем застряло - не пойму: граната РПГ? А против мин сложно.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A Russian BMP-3 with logs as extra-armor got knocked out. Despite the production of extra-armor kits, and bold pronouncements that all new BMP-3s are getting it, clearly they remain scarce. Note the second link shows a MaxxPro MRAP, also knocked, also covered in logs. The problem is shared by both sides.

Skidder Edition

Новый подход к защите бортов. Учитывая, что дополнительная защита БМП-3 все еще является редкостью, а ДЗ так вообще только на выставках и в заморских странах то это вполне себе решение. Также улучшает маскировку.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Ну и чтобы никому обидно не было

В продолжении предыдущего поста

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

A Ukrainian MT-LB/D-44 hybrid. This by no means modern combination nonetheless retains relevance in this mess of a war.

Panzerjager "Motolyga mit D-44"

Но используют его, кмк, скорее как САУ

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Ukrainian Su-24M with a SCALP cruise missile.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A damaged M88A2 Hercules ARV getting evacuated by another of the same. Presumably Zaporozhye, but not clear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian reconstruction efforts at Mariupol' have born some fruit, with new neighborhoods looking very livable. The question of how many people remain in the city is open.

Colonelcassad

Процесс восстановления Мариуполя идет очень интенсивно. Активно восстанавливается инфраструктура и возводятся новые жилые районы. Денег на это выделено более чем достаточно, так что к 2025 году город должен очень серьезно преобразиться, хотя часть следов войны еще существенное время сохранится...

t.me

Ukraine has apparently received ASRAAM SAMs. A lack of modern SHORAD has been a major problem for Ukraine's offensive efforts. However it's not clear these truck-mounted systems will resolve it.

Украина получила зенитные ракетные комплексы на основе ракет ASRAAM

Как сообщила британская газета The Times, Великобритания поставила вооруженным силам Украины несколько пусковых установок экстренно разработанного и построенного полуимпровизированного зенитного ракетного комплекса на основе использования авиационных ракет AIM-132 ASRAAM…

bmpd.livejournal.com

 

[Ananda]

understand that English is not your first language so, perhaps, there is a misunderstanding about meanings.

English is not my first language, but I use it everyday on my professional day to day job. Escalate whether in war or business world always reflect on when one party widen their scope of engagement action. This in any conditions means the party increase the intensity of their actions. Both sides already done it, and continues done it as war progressing.

Seems you as users of English as first language that continues mixing escalation and aggression.

 

[KipPotapych]

CNN reported earlier today that the “first batch” of Abrams is ready to head to Ukraine, with delivery expected to be in early fall.

The first batch of Abrams tanks that the US is providing to Ukraine was approved for shipment over the weekend, and the tanks are on track to arrive in Ukraine by early fall, Army Acquisition Chief Doug Bush said on Monday.

“They are done,” Bush told reporters in a briefing. “Now they have to get to Europe, and then to Ukraine, along with all of the things that go with them. Ammunition, spare parts, fuel equipment, repair facilities. So you know, it's not just the tanks, it's the full package that goes with it. That's still on track.”

Somewhere closer to the bottom of the page: August 7, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news

As with Challengers, I wonder if we will get to see these on the battlefield.

Another report by CNN from a couple of days ago:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html

It appears the “tide” really is shifting and while still divided on the partisan lines, the majority (beyond the margin of error) of the American voters is now actually against providing more funding to support Ukraine (55%, according to the report). While partisan divide is still very significant (even more than it used to be), the amount of support is down among voters of both parties as compared to months prior:

Republicans broadly say that Congress should not authorize new funding (71%) and that the US has done enough to assist Ukraine (59%). Among Democrats, most say the opposite, 62% favor additional funding and 61% say that the US should do more.

Within both parties, there are splits by ideology. On providing additional funding, liberal Democrats are far and away the most supportive, 74% back it compared with 51% of moderate or conservative Democrats. Among Republicans, about three-quarters of conservatives oppose new funding (76%) compared with 61% of moderate or liberal Republicans.

Especially striking now is a very definitive opposition among the Republicans. Most importantly, the views of the independents had also shifted drastically from strong support months before to the oppose territory:

Independents mostly say the US has done enough to help Ukraine (56%) and that they oppose additional funding (55%).

Also interesting, most seem to agree that intelligence gathering is what should be provided, but only Democrats clearly support military training, and there is a fairly definitive no on providing more weapons from both, Independents and Republicans:

When asked about specific forms of assistance, majorities across parties say the US should be providing Ukraine assistance in intelligence gathering (70% of Democrats, 63% of independents and 56% of Republicans say so). And while nearly two-thirds of Democrats back military training (64%), support among independents and Republicans drops to about half (48% among each group). There’s an even larger partisan gap over providing weapons to Ukraine, with 61% of Democrats behind that compared with 39% of independents and just 30% of Republicans.

Another interesting bit from the poll, it appears that Americans now generally believe that the war is counterproductive as far as defending democracy is concerned, as well as worry about a long-term conflict, and the war spilling over to elsewhere in Europe:

A bigger worry across partisan lines in the new poll is that the war will continue without a resolution for a long time. Nearly 8 in 10 are worried about that, including 82% of Democrats, 75% of independents and 73% of Republicans. Nearly two-thirds overall are concerned that the war in Ukraine will lead to increased threats to democracy elsewhere (65%) or lead to Russian attacks elsewhere (64%), and about 6 in 10 are worried it could lead to a broader war in Europe (59%).

This trend of decreased support and increased opposition of such will surely continue among the American voters. I haven’t looked at any Euro polls for a while, but I am betting the same trend is likely taking place there as well. In the US, the overall interest is falling as well, implied by the following numbers:

A majority of Americans do express concern that Russia’s war in Ukraine will threaten US national security (56%), but that’s down significantly February 2022 (72% were worried about threats to US security then).

And, of course, the latest headlines indicate the same. Those who follow, probably noticed. Today, for example, I scrolled through The Politico (.com, not .eu) main page and I bet at least 60-70% of the headlines were somehow related to Trump and his shenanigans. Add other issues related to the election and you got 80% or more of the content that is dedicated to that. This will only increase in time to come. Other outlets have something similar going on. AP, for example, used to have a section dedicated strictly to Ukraine, easily accessible from the main page. That now is gone too. Reuters didn’t skip a beat on a report on Ukraine being at the top of the page. That is changing as well. And so on.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1688121762381234176

I heard from one OSINTer I follow that all strategic reserves of Russian armed forces in Ukraine's southern command, on the army and general staff levels, are now deployed for active combat. This includes the VDV which is particularly unsuitable IMO for this task due to its different equipment.
This isn't to say Russia's Ukraine southern command doesn't have forces in the rear, just that every known army has some component deployed in combat, even if just some battalion.

I don't know how significant this is. Could entirely be insignificant as well.

 

[Feanor]

I heard from one OSINTer I follow that all strategic reserves of Russian armed forces in Ukraine's southern command, on the army and general staff levels, are now deployed for active combat. This includes the VDV which is particularly unsuitable IMO for this task due to its different equipment.
This isn't to say Russia's Ukraine southern command doesn't have forces in the rear, just that every known army has some component deployed in combat, even if just some battalion.

I don't know how significant this is. Could entirely be insignificant as well.

This was basically the case from the start. Russia deployed a piece of every army, at some points basically every brigade or regiment had a unit in Ukraine. The real question is, how many actual units are available in the rear that can be sent to the front. Recent offensive actions on the Oskol suggest that Russia feels they have forces to spare. They could be right, they could be wrong.

 

[Larry_L]

The latest explosion at Sergiev Posad in the Moscow area occurred at an optics plant. The plant either manufactured optics for the military, or stored fireworks, depending on who you listen to. It's reported that over 50 people were injured.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689240879221948418

2 dead in a Russian attack on a Ukrainian city while a blast near Moscow kills 1 and wounds dozens

Ukrainian officials say a Russian rocket attack has killed two people and wounded at least seven others in Zaporizhzhia.

apnews.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689230869041410048

http://instagr.am/p/Cvt20ZXgabE/

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689203285821960192

 

[Feanor]

Not sure if anyone else is paying attention but Russian use of Lancet loitering munitions seems to have spiked to a much high level. The totals for July are 135 videos available, for August there are already 42 videos uploaded, and we're only on Aug. 10th. Considering some delay in upload, it might be another record setting month. The previous highest month was May with 62. So far it's not immediately obvious if this is Russia having saved up a stockpile is now expending them to hit Ukrainian vehicles on the offensive, or if this reflects an increase in production. I suspect it's a little bit of both. And obvious this doesn't include the hundreds of cheaper primitive FPV drones that act as improvised loitering munitions with often a similar effect.

Russia's advantage in loitering munitions remains key to Russian ability to offset their poor counter-battery fire, and inability to capitalize on their advantage in the air. They are at the forefront of both counter-battery strikes, and SEAD/DEAD operations, notable targeting Ukrainian radars and SAMs. In total artillery and MLRS account for over half of all Lancet strikes in this conflict.

Применение барражирующих боеприпасов "Ланцет" в зоне СВО

lostarmour.info

 

[Larry_L]

In a change of posture, Poland is sending technicians to repair Krab Howitzers close to the front lines in Ukraine. In the beginning of the war this would have been unthinkable. They have been evacuating them to Poland for repair. It is possible that this has been going on for some time since the WSJ reports this as "covert". I could not read their article since there is a subscription required.

Poland helps repair Ukraine’s Krab howitzers near frontlines: officials

Polish maintenance workers are helping service Ukraine’s Krab self-propelled gun howitzers on the ground, near the frontlines of the Russian invasion, the weapon’s Polish maker has said.

www.polskieradio.pl

Poland sends Krab self-propelled gun repair specialists to Ukraine

Polish specialists from PGZ Service Orel arrived in Ukraine to repair Krab artillery systems

mil.in.ua

An evaluation of the Krab by Ukrainians. They like the machine, although they managed to blow up one barrel by overusing it. The armor is light, so it is vulnerable to anything heavier than 7.62mm rounds. Reportedly at least 20 have been destroyed, or heavily damaged. Of these, ten were hit by Lancets. They also state that mesh and slat armor is partially effective because the shape charge of the Lancet is held on by construction foam, and is not balanced.

Polish AHS Krab in Ukraine: Durable Yet Uneasy to Repair and Vulnerable to Lancet Drones, Says War Analyst | Defense Express

Polish-made howitzers have proved to be a cut above the old Soviet artillery systems due to maneuverability, even though there are some issues

en.defence-ua.com

The following is a link to a video of the damage to the Russian oil tanker by a Ukrainian Unmanned surface vessel. This is the first image I have seen of the damage they can do.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1689697251503861761

 

[KipPotapych]

Some reports over the past few days indicated that the Germans are moving toward approving the transfer of Taurus to Ukraine. For example, a Popular Mechanics article (includes a good discussion of capabilities, etc - why I used this one):

Sure Sounds Like Germany Is Giving Ukraine the Mighty Taurus Cruise Missile

Bad news for Russian bunkers.

www.popularmechanics.com

The Russian Kommersant reported today, citing a German outlet, that the transfer was basically approved and is now being discussed with the Americans, with the announcement to come in the near future. I haven’t gone to read the article they are citing, but Kommersant is usually a fairly reliable outlet. Via Google translate:

The German edition of T-online, citing sources close to the leadership of the ruling Social Democratic Party, reported that the German Air Force had previously approved the transfer of Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. According to T-online, the transfer of missiles may be officially announced in the near future after consultations between the German and U.S. authorities.

"The Federal Government wants to "soon" announce the supply of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz's team is currently working on a solution with the United States, Germany's most important partner in the North Atlantic Alliance and Ukraine's largest supporter. As soon as consensus is reached, the transfer of missiles will be officially announced," said a T-online source.

Interlocutors of German journalists in the SPD note that talk about the need to transfer Taurus missiles to Ukraine became more frequent after the unsuccessful start of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to military experts interviewed by the publication, due to problems with the implementation of offensive operations, the Ukrainian military command began to rely more on artillery shelling and strikes on Russian military logistics facilities. According to them, Taurus missiles will contribute to the success of this tactic.

Source:

ВВС Германии предварительно одобрили передачу Украине ракет Taurus – Коммерсантъ

Немецкое издание T-online со ссылкой на источники, близкие к руководству правящей Социал-демократической партии, сообщило что ВВС Германии предварительно одобрили передачу Украине крылатых ракет большой дальности Taurus. Официально объявить о передаче ракет, по данным T-online, могут уже в...

www.kommersant.ru

 

[KipPotapych]

Forgot earlier. Ukrainian authorities ordered evacuation in the Kharkiv region due to the Russian advances in the area. It was also talked about for the past couple of days, I believe. Al Jazeera states 37 towns and villages and about 12,000 people are affected. I read earlier from a Ukrainian source (I think it was a Telegram channel of some UA official) that there are over 50 towns and villages affected. Al Jazeera link (I don’t recall who the UA was):

Ukraine orders evacuations in Kharkiv as Russians advance

Ukrainian authorities order evacuation of nearly 12,000 civilians in the Kharkiv region, northeast Ukraine.

www.aljazeera.com

@Feanor (or anyone else, really), is there a comparison of the areas the UA forces took control over vs what they lost since the counteroffensive had began? I looked, but I couldn’t find. Some maps show the Ukrainian gains and Russian controlled territory, others currently control of either side, etc. Nothing that could answer my curiosity though.

 

[Feanor]

Forgot earlier. Ukrainian authorities ordered evacuation in the Kharkiv region due to the Russian advances in the area. It was also talked about for the past couple of days, I believe. Al Jazeera states 37 towns and villages and about 12,000 people are affected. I read earlier from a Ukrainian source (I think it was a Telegram channel of some UA official) that there are over 50 towns and villages affected. Al Jazeera link (I don’t recall who the UA was):

Ukraine orders evacuations in Kharkiv as Russians advance

Ukrainian authorities order evacuation of nearly 12,000 civilians in the Kharkiv region, northeast Ukraine.

www.aljazeera.com

This is the area being evacuated. It's likely a preparation for a Russian assault on Kupyansk. There is also a solid likelihood that they intend to commandeer the housing to stage troops, and want to avoid local eyes observing troop movements, the area is relatively pro-Russian (or at least it was pre-war).

Colonelcassad

Список населенных пунктов Купянского района, где киевским режимом объявлена обязательная эвакуация, расширен до 53 н.п. @militarymaps

t.me

@Feanor (or anyone else, really), is there a comparison of the areas the UA forces took control over vs what they lost since the counteroffensive had began? I looked, but I couldn’t find. Some maps show the Ukrainian gains and Russian controlled territory, others currently control of either side, etc. Nothing that could answer my curiosity though.

Ukrainian gains are modest. Russian gains are very modest. Russian gains so far are definitely smaller, but in each case we're talking about fairly minimal movements.

EDIT: A look at the damage to the BDK that got hit recently. It's currently in drydock.

Moscow calling

Не очень заметно, но - повреждения левого борта БДК "Оленегорский горняк", стоящего в сухом доке Новороссийска.

t.me

Moscow calling

Ещё фото БДК "Оленегорский горняк" в доке.

t.me