The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This is a fantastic illustration of the current war effort. This is the change of front lines over the past two months. Red are Russian gains, blue are Ukrainian gains. A battle for the forest watchmen's hut is an overstatement. Storm in a teacup doesn't do it justice.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

I ask the same question that Osint ask. Is this real? Are they keep pumping new forces to Bakhmut when they know the roads already under Russian direct fire range?

Bit contradictory when before Ukrainian sources and back by Western military sources downplaying the importance of Bakhmut. Even redicule Russian effort on grinding that area. Will Ukrainian going to use additional forces that supposedly being prepared for their spring counter offensive?

Note:
I put Osint tweet, that clearly not in any way Pro Russian. The Pro Russian telegram already talk differently and bit gleefully.
 

Dex

Member


Moscow is losing their population at a rate of 50x less than other provinces. The question that needs to be asked is what do these smaller remote provinces receive which makes them gleeful at the thought of their population becoming decimated while the rich folks in Moscow and St. Petersberg benefit from that sacrifice. You have to wonder if those smaller areas will eventually revolt if they need to send more men to the war.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

I ask the same question that Osint ask. Is this real? Are they keep pumping new forces to Bakhmut when they know the roads already under Russian direct fire range?

Bit contradictory when before Ukrainian sources and back by Western military sources downplaying the importance of Bakhmut. Even redicule Russian effort on grinding that area. Will Ukrainian going to use additional forces that supposedly being prepared for their spring counter offensive?

Note:
I put Osint tweet, that clearly not in any way Pro Russian. The Pro Russian telegram already talk differently and bit gleefully.
This is the same info I've seen in Russian sources, Ukrainian reinforcements pouring in despite the bad situation.

An interesting video surfaced of a Russian tank crew, one WIA, that had to hide in a crater for 2 days after their vehicle was knocked out on a land mine. Apparently they were rescued by elements of the 5th Tanks and 37th Motor-Rifles.


EDIT: Allegedly fresh footage from a Belarussian tv channel of the A-50U still operating. Note it's taxiing not flying, and we don't get a full wraparound shot so it's possible damage is deliberately kept out of camera view.


And we've gotten some footage of Russia's next-generation vehicles on trains moving somewhere. The likeliest destination is the Victory Day parade in Moscow.

 
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Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
This is a fantastic illustration of the current war effort. This is the change of front lines over the past two months. Red are Russian gains, blue are Ukrainian gains. A battle for the forest watchmen's hut is an overstatement. Storm in a teacup doesn't do it justice.

Just a thought, which side is having the most casualties and equipment losses during this phase of the conflict? If the Ukrainians are losing significantly less than the RU it may be a deliberate ploy on their part to drain the RU of men and materials prior to them bringing the new forces they are building up into the war and having the RU concentrated away from were the next intended thrusts are intended to be.
 
Hey guys, was very busy transitioning to a new job so I couldn't follow the conflict as much as before so I was unable to post.

I was wondering if there was any more precise information about the size of Bakhmut garrison. The figures I'm seeing go from 5k to 25k which is a big difference. If it is the latter then even if the Wagner cuts them off entirely a breakout operation is not out of the question, depending on how big the Wagner blocking forces are. On the flip-side if the Ukrainians don't have enough ammunition, fuel, and no significant forces outside of the encirclement to help this may be exactly what the Russians want so they can destroy them in the open. I guess everything depends if there is a strong Ukrainian grouping in Chasiv Yar to help them break through.

I would also like to recommend a map of the conflict I've been following. As far as I can tell they are accurate (relatively, mistakes are always possible) and update regularly so you guys might find them interesting.

Guerra Ruso-Ucraniana 2022 - Google My Maps
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Just a thought, which side is having the most casualties and equipment losses during this phase of the conflict? If the Ukrainians are losing significantly less than the RU it may be a deliberate ploy on their part to drain the RU of men and materials prior to them bringing the new forces they are building up into the war and having the RU concentrated away from were the next intended thrusts are intended to be.
Good question. I don't think we will get a good answer. This apparently Ukrainian commander thinks Ukraine is losing a btln+ per week in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. This likely doesn't include fighting in other sections of the front near the city. He's calling for Ukrainian command to withdraw from the city and regroup on new defense lines. So Ukraine's casualties are anything but low. On the other hand we've seen terrible Russian attacks at Ugledar and Avdeevka that have cost significant casualties without accomplishing much of anything.

 

Dex

Member
Good question. I don't think we will get a good answer. This apparently Ukrainian commander thinks Ukraine is losing a btln+ per week in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. This likely doesn't include fighting in other sections of the front near the city. He's calling for Ukrainian command to withdraw from the city and regroup on new defense lines. So Ukraine's casualties are anything but low. On the other hand we've seen terrible Russian attacks at Ugledar and Avdeevka that have cost significant casualties without accomplishing much of anything.

Can you explain why I see these videos every day? It seems like every day I see a new video of Russian tanks in the same field of Vuledar running into mines while there are 5 other tanks disabled. Why do they keep running into these fields knowing they are mined? You would think they would get the message after 2 days instead they keep sending these tanks to known death. This is truly baffling to me.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Can you explain why I see these videos every day? It seems like every day I see a new video of Russian tanks in the same field of Vuledar running into mines while there are 5 other tanks disabled. Why do they keep running into these fields knowing they are mined? You would think they would get the message after 2 days instead they keep sending these tanks to known death. This is truly baffling to me.

As the official Russian General Staff liaison to defencetalk, I definitely know the answer to this question.

On a serious note, I haven't the slightest. It looks every bit as stupid to me as it does to you. On the flip side, we don't really have the full video of what took place, just short clips of Russian vehicles getting hit. So I'm curious if there is a context that would make this look less ridiculous. There of course may not be, it's not clear. What's clear is that the 155th Marines have secured and expanded a foothold in the dacha neighborhood on the south-east of Ugledar, but the motor-rifles and 5th tanks have failed in all their attempts to hit Ugledar from the other side. We can't even be certain if all the videos released are over a span of time, or are slow releases of videos that all happened relatively quickly.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Can you explain why I see these videos every day? It seems like every day I see a new video of Russian tanks in the same field of Vuledar running into mines while there are 5 other tanks disabled.
It could be as simple as rotating new parts of the unit through and not telling them. You would think they would send a mine clearing vehicle into the area while using smoke to cover it, but what do I know ?
 
Something interesting I found in both official and unofficial Russian reports, apparently the Ukrainians have been losing a lot more vehicles and manpower in Kherson region then they should. As far as I know the Russians pulled all forces across the river and there is no close combat only artillery duels, and yet Russians claim 30 vehicles destroyed in the last 24h. The number itself is not that important (nor possibly true) but its comparison to the rest of the front is. Such as around Kupiansk where they reported just five or six (can't remember the exact number), that's a pretty big difference and this is a region where Russians are actually pushing and trying to advance. Pretty weird statistic, either the Russians are making stuff up or for some reason their artillery has gotten very effective in this sector.

Regarding Bakhmut and looking at the deployment map I think that Ukrainians have accepted that encirclement is unavoidable and are sending units such as Azov, Chechens and free Russians into the city hoping for a Mariupol type siege which could last months as these units would fight to the end, that is to say would prefer death to capture as i doubt any of them would be treated well if taken prisoner.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Lawyers from the group "Global Rights Compliance" have investigated war crimes in Kherson. What they found was systematic torture, planned and executed by the Russian state. What happened in the torture chambers were part of a "calculated plan to terrorise, subjugate and eliminate Ukrainian resistance and destroy Ukrainian identity”.



More about Global Rights Compliance group: ABOUT US | Global Rights Compliance

Russia must lose this war.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Lawyers from the group "Global Rights Compliance" have investigated war crimes in Kherson. What they found was systematic torture, planned and executed by the Russian state. What happened in the torture chambers were part of a "calculated plan to terrorise, subjugate and eliminate Ukrainian resistance and destroy Ukrainian identity”.



More about Global Rights Compliance group: ABOUT US | Global Rights Compliance

Russia must lose this war.
I would be more interested in what the ICJ investigators have to say. After all the Global Rights Compliance group is a political group with an agenda.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Liveuamap.com is reporting the demolition of the (main ?) bridge over the Bahkmuhtka river in Bahkmut, and another bridge to the W

https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/3-march-d ... a-river-in
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/3-march-b ... -was-blown

This would seem to presage a withdrawal soon.
Reuters reported that the second one was damaged by the Russian artillery and they are seeing more Ukrainian troops heading to the frontline: Russia close to encircling Ukraine's Bakhmut after months of fighting

Reuters observed intense Russian shelling of routes leading west out of Bakhmut, an apparent attempt to block Ukrainian forces' access in and out of the city. A bridge in the adjacent town of Khromove was damaged by Russian tank shelling.

Ukrainian soldiers were working to repair damaged roads and more troops were heading toward the frontline in a sign that Ukraine was not yet ready to give up the city. To the west, Ukrainians were digging new trenches for defensive positions.


Could be that the same is true for the other bridge as well.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Jan 28th-30th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian shelling hit a hospital in Kherson.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian Tornado-G fires, Zaporozhye area.


Russian Kh-29TD strike, Malinovka Zaporozhye area. Note this is an upgraded version of the missile with thermals. Allegedly there are Ukrainian vehicles in that hangar.


Svetlodolinskoe, battle damage from a Ukrainian strike against a rail bridge.


Oskol Front.

Ka-52s firing on Ukrainian armored vehicles near Svatovo-Kremennaya area. Note this is the only helo that continues to regularly use ATGMs, likely to the long range of the Vikhr, though possible the sensors of the helo are also in play.


Russian BMPT firing, targets unclear.


Russian ATGM crew taking out a Ukrainian vehicle of some sort, near Svatovo.


Ukrainian pickup truck getting hit in Terny.


A residential house in Kharkov got hit.


A Russian T-80BV near Kremennaya.


LDNR Front.

Wagner forces inside Blagodatnoe, between Soledar and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Footage from inside Yakovlevka, a small village north of Soledar. I think the truck is a destroyed KrAZ.


Ukrainian infantry firing at something, Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note these are two separate videos, not two links to the same.


Ukrainian Wolfhound MRAP knocked out near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A closer look at a Ukrainian M-109 that we saw destroyed earlier, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian BMP-2 destroyed south of Klescheevka.


DNR 3rd Bde using MT-12s for indirect fire near Donetsk.


DNR 3rd Bde, allegedly getting renamed to the 132nd Bde of Russian Army, is using 2S1s. The type has gotten relatively rare in this war.


Sparta quadcopter munition drops north of Pervomayskoe continue.


Battle damage in Mar'inka.


Ukrainian infantry getting hit near Ugledar.


Russian loitering munition strike near Bogoyavlenka, Ugledar area. The video and description disagree about whether this is a Krab or an M109 getting hit.


Russian loitering munition strike against a Ukrainian 2S3 near Ugledar.


Russian armor near Ugledar getting hit.


And here we have Russian Marines near Ugledar, two BMP-3s laying down suppression fire while their infantry dismounts.


Allegedly a Russian Krasnopol' strike in Ugledar.


Allegedly a Russian Tornado-S strike on Ukrainian military storage in Shahty No.1 near Ugledar.


Russian 155th Marines riding atop something (BMP-3?) near Ugledar. Smoke can be seen rising over the city.


Ukrainian POWs captured by Russian Marines near Ugledar.


Reportedly Russia's 36th Motor-Rifle gained ground east of Ugledar. With hindsight, we know this didn't produce any further results.


Shelling of Donetsk continues.


HIMARS fragments found in Donetsk.


Novoaydar, apparently a Russian military hospital got hit. Allegedly a HIMARS strike. 14 KIA and 24 WIA reported.


Battle damage in Konstantinovka after a Russian strike.


Battle damage in Ilovaysk after a recent Ukrainian strike.


DNR forces ATGM launch against a Ukrainian vehicle, allegedly an M113.


Russian 58th SpN btln, formerly DNR 3rd SpN btln, launching an ATGM at Ukrainian infantry.


DNR 1st Bde shows off their T-72B mod'23. Note it's mislabeled as a T-72B3 mod'22. This T-72B variant doesn't receive the Sosna, instead getting a separate thermal sight. Sources disagree about whether the primary gunner's sight gets upgraded. The wind sensor is absent. It does get considerable quantities of additional ERA. It's unclear whether it involves an engine upgrade, or a new auto-loader.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia.

Russia is reportedly sending 4 Marker UGVs to Ukraine. Their value is questionable.


Misc.

Ukrainian infantry getting hit by I think artillery. Note they appear to be staged for some sort of movement, or possibly an attack.


A Ukrainian Su-25 going down, I think this is Artemovsk/Bakhmut area, but unclear.


Ukrainian FPV strikes on a Russian BMP (1?) and BMP-3.


Russian quadcopter munition drops, location and context unclear.


Russian 2S4 firing a Smel'chak guided mortar shell. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian Kozak-5 armored car destroyed, location and context unclear. There's a wrecked pontoon crossing near by.


Ukrainian 2S17-2 Nona-SV hit a land mine. Note these Nona-S conversions are a recent thing, but the project dates back to the 80s. Ukraine has a handful of these vehicles, and work is likely continuing. I suspect the reasons are either that Ukraine has a number of Russian 2S9s captured, or is working with a stock of surviving Ukrainian 2S9s from pre-war, and having difficulties with the chassis.


Ukrainian soldiers with a Dingo armored car, German.


Ukrainian forces are using bunker-busting 203mm shells initially designed for B4 howitzers in WWII on their 2S7s. This suggests that 203mm munitions might be running low.


Ukrainian troops riding a captured T-80UE-1.


Russian forces loading ammo into a BMP-2.


Russian MT-LB with ZU-23-2.


Russian BMR-3MA in Ukraine. Note sure why it's not being used for mineclearing at Ugledar.


Rare Russian Vystrel armored cars in Ukraine.


Russian T-72B3 with a roof cage.


Russian repair unit operating in support of the war effort. We see a T-80U, a couple of BTR-82As, a T-72 variant without a turret, a TOS-1, several Msta-S, a Tigr-M, and many other vehicles in the background.


Mobilization efforts continue in Ukraine.


The World.

Reportedly there is military equipment being pulled from storage in Belarus as part of the joint forces grouping.


Flights from Iran to Russia continue.


A repair facility in Poland, working on Krabs from Ukraine.


Spain will reportedly send 20 M113s to Ukraine. Note this was initially announced last August.


I think this is a first sighting of the Bergenpanzer 2 in Ukraine. They reportedly received 15 of them.

 
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