The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
An interesting analysis on Wagner tactics, and Battalion level reorganization by the Russian army a reserve Ukrainian military officer. He goes into some detail on unit structure and tactics.

It's a very interesting discussion and I have a few comments, observations and questions.

First off, it's almost certain that this is the VDV. D-30s, BMD-2s or BMP-2s, 2S9s, ZU-23-2s, all scream VDV. Ok I know the ZU-23-2s are not exclusive, neither are the 2S9s as some Marine Bdes use the latter, and the former are scattered through many units though are less common. But the VDV are their most common operator. In the VDV every unit continues to use the ZU-23-2 for AAA roles. Note, some VDV near Kremennaya have received BMP-2Ms to replace/supplement their BMD-2s. Given battlefield losses, and the nature of the fighting this is a logical choice. Notably absent are SP howitzers, any heavy artillery (no 152mm at all), and any APCs. Also interesting is the very small size of the formation. VDV were always a lighter smaller force so this is also consistent. By the way, normally motor-rifles have one MBT company supporting one infantry btln. Here we have a tank platoon, because VDV divisions only have a tank btln not a tank rgt.

Second off I immediately have questions about vehicle numbers. There is no way a company is riding only 4 IFVs. Presumably these aren't so much all the company vehicles, but rather a detachment of them being used for the assault. They also say that the btln weapons don't include company weapons, but I don't think this is entirely true. It's not likely that the btln has one tank platoon supporting it, and the company has a separate tank just for themselves. It also wouldn't make any sense for the btln to have a 6 gun battery, but then a separate set of guns for each company. It's far likelier some guns are given to each company commander to be used at his discretion, while the rest are kept at the btln command level. Namely one arty pltn of 3 is parcelled out to the assault coys, while the other is kept whole. At least this is what makes sense to me. One BREM-L is interesting and is likely wishful thinking. BREM-Ls are relatively rare. It's possible to replace it with older BMP-based ARV variants. Not sure what the VDV specifically uses, I don't believe there is a BMD-chassis ARV, and it leaves open the question of what would be used to evacuate one of those MBTs if they get knocked out. For 2S9 batteries, I do believe each VDV btln has a 6-gun battery of them, so they should be available. Obviously losses were taken, but I suspect there are enough in storage to replace them. So I think the company slide has a mix of btln level support assets and their own organic vehicles/equipment.

Third off, their platoons are listed as 12 and 11 soldiers respectively. This is far smaller then even typical VDV. The whole thing is rather strange because in a way these numbers make sense with the numbers of IFVs. 12 dismounts are reasonable for 2 IFVs to carry, and their scheme, despite showing 3 platoons per company in the org chart, it seems to imply 2 platoons of 2 vehicles each. This entire thing looks very strange because if the totals are right, then for ~24 infantry dismounts, there are 2 HMGs, 2 ATGMs, 2 mortars, 2 AGS-17s, and a howitzer for support. Of course the current war is heavily about artillery and heavy weapons, but these are very small assault elements. Either the chart is wrong and self-contradictory, or we're looking at companies that have 4 IFVs (presumably 3 crew each), 2 "platoons" of 12 each, and then 22 personnel manning heavy weapons and sniper rifles. Company size, not counting company command elements, would then be a 58 service members, most of them not actually able to participate in the assault directly.

I guess this would kind of make sense if we're talking about assaulting single buildings, or small hamlets at a time, follow by extremely heavy longer ranged fires intended to prevent enemy counter-attacks. But it doesn't make any kind of organization sense within the current VDV structure, and I suspect these formations are composites made out of existing line units rather then standard force organizational charts. Forming a infantry btln where there are 2 sniper pairs per coy, and 2 sniper pairs in the btln, would mean that for less then 200 total infantry you have 16 snipers? I.e. ~9% of the total fighting force are snipers? Ditto for crew served weapons.

EDIT: He talks about a lack of MLRS, but this would make total sense if we're talking VDV. They don't have MLRS.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There are reports of Ukraine counterattacking north of Bakhmut in an attempt encircle a portion of the Russian advance in that area. They are driving from both north, and south. In each direction the advance appears to follow roads.



Rybar seems to contradict the above??????

The last update from rybar acknowledges Ukrainian counter-attack attempts in this area but reports them as failed. Instead he claims Russian forces have completely secured the Berkhovskoe water reservoir and firmly control Stupochki. Let's see what happens. If Russian lines here collapse, we will see photos of Ukrainian troops re-entering Yagodnoe and Berkhovka. We've seen several Ukrainian counter attacks in the south, and none of them collapsed Russian lines, but the position here is more complex. On the flip side one of those arrows of counter attack seems to lead straight through areas that are supposed to get flooded with the dam being blown. I'm going to reserve judgement until we have more evidence but I'm skeptical of bold reports at this stage, unless some major additional forces were injected.


EDIT: For context, most Russian sources have said nothing about a Ukrainian counter attack and instead are all talking about the Ukrainian loitering munition strikes on Belgorod. The counter attack at Balakleya was discussed by everyone. So I'll wait for now but I wouldn't be surprised if it comes to nothing.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
The last update from rybar acknowledges Ukrainian counter-attack attempts in this area but reports them as failed. Instead he claims Russian forces have completely secured the Berkhovskoe water reservoir and firmly control Stupochki. Let's see what happens. If Russian lines here collapse, we will see photos of Ukrainian troops re-entering Yagodnoe and Berkhovka. We've seen several Ukrainian counter attacks in the south, and none of them collapsed Russian lines, but the position here is more complex. On the flip side one of those arrows of counter attack seems to lead straight through areas that are supposed to get flooded with the dam being blown. I'm going to reserve judgement until we have more evidence but I'm skeptical of bold reports at this stage, unless some major additional forces were injected.


EDIT: For context, most Russian sources have said nothing about a Ukrainian counter attack and instead are all talking about the Ukrainian loitering munition strikes on Belgorod. The counter attack at Balakleya was discussed by everyone. So I'll wait for now but I wouldn't be surprised if it comes to nothing.
I also came to the conclusion that this is nothing more than someone tweaking the twitters. What convinced me was a one liner by Defmon3 about the shape of the enveloped area. During the Kherson offensive there were several similar posts that were also false. Humorously, the tweaking made it all the way to Utube. I will not post the link to the one liner since it would violate one of the rules.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I also came to the conclusion that this is nothing more than someone tweaking the twitters. What convinced me was a one liner by Defmon3 about the shape of the enveloped area. During the Kherson offensive there were several similar posts that were also false. Humorously, the tweaking made it all the way to Utube. I will not post the link to the one liner since it would violate one of the rules.
All the information I have says the Ukrainian military is stretched dangerously thin and has committed virtually everything they can to this fight going so far as to throw fresh barely formed formations into the fight. Despite this Russian forces are continuing to gain ground relying on overwhelming fire power, namely massive concentrations of artillery fire. On the Russian side as far as I can tell the fundamental problem of comms has not been resolved and there is no sign it will be any time soon. This means any real maneuver warfare on Russia's part is out of the question. In theory Ukraine should be able to reverse the current situation with the injection of the three fresh army corps they are currently forming. However it remains to be seen how this plays out in practice. We still don't know if Russia has committed the second half of the mobilized personnel to the front, and Russian use of loitering munitions continues to be a major problem for Ukrainian forces, especially Ukrainian artillery.
 

Dex

Member
I'm seeing reports that partisans in Belarus blew up a valuable Russian Spy Plane. Twitter is saying that the plane is worth $1 Billion. If true, that's the biggest blow for Russia since the sinking of the Moskva.

@Dex Links to sources please.

Ngatimozart.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
That's not a spy plane, that's an A-50U AEW, and this is the attack that was reported above, now apparently getting confirmed. It's definitely a significant loss for Russia single literally a handful of these somewhat modern AEWs are available. The program was proceeding at a snail's pace for over a decade, delivering iirc 7 total aircraft? It was still in progress as the war started, but it's not clear if Russia can continue it. A separate question exists about the A-100 successor project which was in trials at the start of the war.
 
I'm seeing reports that partisans in Belarus blew up a valuable Russian Spy Plane. Twitter is saying that the plane is worth $1 Billion. If true, that's the biggest blow for Russia since the sinking of the Moskva.

@Dex Links to sources please.

Ngatimozart.
Around 3 hundred millions. However, it was the most expensive loss. Actually there is no proof of what really happened and only guessing and suggestions.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
That's not a spy plane, that's an A-50U AEW, and this is the attack that was reported above, now apparently getting confirmed. It's definitely a significant loss for Russia single literally a handful of these somewhat modern AEWs are available. The program was proceeding at a snail's pace for over a decade, delivering iirc 7 total aircraft? It was still in progress as the war started, but it's not clear if Russia can continue it. A separate question exists about the A-100 successor project which was in trials at the start of the war.
I reported that yesterday at 1515
 

swerve

Super Moderator
That's not a spy plane, that's an A-50U AEW, and this is the attack that was reported above, now apparently getting confirmed. It's definitely a significant loss for Russia single literally a handful of these somewhat modern AEWs are available. The program was proceeding at a snail's pace for over a decade, delivering iirc 7 total aircraft? It was still in progress as the war started, but it's not clear if Russia can continue it. A separate question exists about the A-100 successor project which was in trials at the start of the war.
Maybe there are still some un-modernised A-50 which are usable in addition to the handful of A-50U, but I've not seen reports of any flying.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
All the information I have says the Ukrainian military is stretched dangerously thin and has committed virtually everything they can to this fight going so far as to throw fresh barely formed formations into the fight. ...
This could be a deliberate choice: use barely-trained troops as a stopgap to allow new western-trained units to be fully prepared. Hard for the poor buggers thrown in to hold the line, but if that's the case, I can see the logic.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
@Feanor is there more confirmation that A-50U Is really get hit?


Wargonzo seems put confirmation some drones hit the base in Belarus. However looking to Pro Russian Telegram or even Pro Ukrainian Redit seems none provide either evidence, that the hit got an A-50. If something big item like this get hit, Pro Ukrainian Redit usually already flaunt the confirmation. While on the other hand if it is not hit, Pro Russian Telegram already shown counter evidence to discount their opponents in Redit or Tweet.

So far I still see no solid evidence on either claim (on A-50U).
 
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Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
That's not a spy plane, that's an A-50U AEW, and this is the attack that was reported above, now apparently getting confirmed. It's definitely a significant loss for Russia single literally a handful of these somewhat modern AEWs are available. The program was proceeding at a snail's pace for over a decade, delivering iirc 7 total aircraft? It was still in progress as the war started, but it's not clear if Russia can continue it. A separate question exists about the A-100 successor project which was in trials at the start of the war.
I don't know how accurate it is, but Forbes says Russia had nine total Beriev A-50s:


@Ananda All I was able to find, per Reuters etc., was that Russia and Belarus have not officially confirmed or denied the attack and have not responded to requests for confirmation.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
was that Russia and Belarus have not officially confirmed or denied the attack and have not responded to requests for confirmation.
I believe they hit something. Wargonzo is quite bias on Russian side, and if the sites seems believe there's an attack and hit something, it is ussualy base on Russian sides info. However the big questions is whether it is a significant assets like A-50U (as Pro Ukranian reddit), or just some random much less important target (as some Pro Russian telegram believes). This is that's hasn't shown evidence on either claim.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Maybe there are still some un-modernised A-50 which are usable in addition to the handful of A-50U, but I've not seen reports of any flying.
There definitely are some flying un-modernized A-50s but their value is low. These are 70s AEW, in 2023.

This could be a deliberate choice: use barely-trained troops as a stopgap to allow new western-trained units to be fully prepared. Hard for the poor buggers thrown in to hold the line, but if that's the case, I can see the logic.
This is absolutely what it is and I don't think there is any doubt about it at this point. Ukraine has a major offensive planned upcoming with freshly trained and well equipped troops. It's an open question whether Russia has anything to counter it. This is why the question of whether Russia has committed the second part of their reserves is so important. It's also why the biggest strategic win Russia can hope for is to force Ukraine to commit those newly trained reserves to plugging holes instead of being part of the new offensive. That would potentially lessen the impact of that push. On the flip side the biggest failure for Russia, in my opinion, would be to commit the second half of their mobilized personnel to the current push instead of leaving them in reserve to counter the imminent Ukrainian offensive.

@Feanor is there more confirmation that A-50U Is really get hit?


Wargonzo seems put confirmation some drones hit the base in Belarus. However looking to Pro Russian Telegram or even Pro Ukrainian Redit seems none provide either evidence, that the hit got an A-50. If something big item like this get hit, Pro Ukrainian Redit usually already flaunt the confirmation. While on the other hand if it is not hit, Pro Russian Telegram already shown counter evidence to discount their opponents in Redit or Tweet.

So far I still see no solid evidence on either claim (on A-50U).
It's sketchy at best. The A-50U there is parked in a different location now and there is a darker patch on the antenna that some sources are claiming is the damage. I can't make it out myself. We might have to wait and see if this plan continues operations or returns to Russia. If the latter, that would be consistent with it being damaged but of course also not definitive. It could get moved out of there just to avoid getting hit in the next strike.


I don't know how accurate it is, but Forbes says Russia had nine total Beriev A-50s:


@Ananda All I was able to find, per Reuters etc., was that Russia and Belarus have not officially confirmed or denied the attack and have not responded to requests for confirmation.
They probably mean 9 active ones. The last time I looked into it, the VKS had 25 still in their inventory. Of course that article isn't very good, A-50M? Russia has publicized the A-50U for years. Even wikipedia gets it right. Hypothetically Russia could pull many more in for upgrades. Practically, it's not clear whether this is still possible. Presumably it's not that hard to do something to improve a 40 year old AEW asset even with sanctions. But it might require a whole new program if components of the existing and approved A-50U project aren't available.
 
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Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
They probably mean 9 active ones. The last time I looked into it, the VKS had 25 still in their inventory. Of course that article isn't very good, A-50M? Russia has publicized the A-50U for years. Even wikipedia gets it right. Hypothetically Russia could pull many more in for upgrades. Practically, it's not clear whether this is still possible. Presumably it's not that hard to do something to improve a 40 year old AEW asset even with sanctions. But it might require a whole new program if components of the existing and approved A-50U project aren't available.
I agree the Forbes article was not very good, and glad I asked about it. It was the only one I could find at the time that gave any numbers. I was curious how much of an impact this one being damaged (if it actually was) would have. Thank you for your very informative and helpful reply.

Now Janes has an article out about it, and it's a testament to your excellent memory:

"According to the MoD, the attack leaves the VKS with just six operational A-50s. Janes World Air Forces reports that 10 A-50s were in service before this incident, as well as seven upgraded A-50Us. This suggests that it was a modernised A-50U that has been put out of commission."

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
There were claims that Byelorussians hostile to the regime launched 2 drones from other side of perimeter fence at the a-50 before escaping security forces found the controls for the drones on the ground after , the claim it was Belarusians against Lukashenko's regime may be convenient to avoid stating it was a Ukrainian team and avoiding a provocation
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

It's still not clear if Russia really did attack Bogdanovka but if they did, the attempt failed. Russian forces have expanded their area of control west of Yagodnoe, threatening Khromovo. Technically the road through Chasov Yar is open, but it's under direct fire of Russian forces, so if Khromovo falls, this would be a major problem. Really Russia doesn't even need to take Khromovo, just cut the road anywhere west of there on relatively open ground. They are also still slowly gaining ground inside the town.


Some footage out of Stupiki, the northern neighborhood in Artemovsk/Bakhmut now under Wagner control. Warning graphic footage.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
A failed drone strike but the range must be a concern to Vlad if Ukraine can increase the rate of attack with hear drones, especially if they can actually do damage to important infrastructure. What goes around comes around Vlad!

Drone crash near Moscow was failed attack, governor says Drone crash near Moscow was failed attack, governor says
They have been retrofitting those old soviet Tu-141 drones for a while now. IIRC one even fell in the czech republic. Those have some serious range.
 
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