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I have my doubts. Major offensive movements are impossible without the comms situation being rectified. There's no evidence Russia is purchasing retranslator stations in large amounts. A series of smaller offensives are likelier. I think that, assuming the Ukrainian counter-attack doesn't start yet, they will aim at Avdeevka, Mar'inka, Kupyansk, and Seversk. If all are gained without committing the second half of the mobilized forces, that would already be quite the success. If Russia commits the second half of their mobilized personnel before the Ukrainian offensive lands, Russia will be screwed because they won't have reserves to counter that move with. And if they can get Ukraine to commit their newly formed units piecemeal to fight in attrition battles along current hot spots, that, in my opinion, would be the only strategic success Russia can hope for here. Attrition on a level that would get Ukraine to run out of bodies would take years. But trained bodies? That's a different story.Does Russia have the capacity to launch its own "Spring offensive " ? I understand that Russia recently has used many of the recent reservists in wide ranging attacks but how much of this was a full committal it should nominally have significant advantages in military equipment despite earlier losses
Like I said earlier, Russian territorial gains are basically meaningless strategically speaking. Of course they could try to grab Kharkov, attacking from Russian territory, or Zaporozhye by a big push through the front there.
Ukraine's counter attack at Kharkov region was so forseeable social media was ranting about it before it even started. Did Russia fortify Balakleya, Izyum, or anywhere else really? It sure would be smart of Russia to dig deep in Zaporozhye area to protect from a Ukrainian breakthrough. Are they doing it though?Berdyansk is the logical place with a large payoff. So logical, that the RU know it and have fortified accordingly.
If Kherson is any indication, then no. Ukraine took massive losses, beating their head against those defenses. It ultimately worked because they could hit a very small number of Russian crossings with 20k+ of Russian troops sitting on those lines. On the flip side, Ukraine has been able to afford ghastly casualties. Russia far less so.I wonder if the UKR are capable of a set-piece fortified line penetration without taking ghastly casualties.
EDIT: On the subject of Ukrainian losses, a look from the other side. There's a grain of salt since Ukrainian sources also have the motivation of advocating for more military aid, but I suspect that this probably isn't too far off. It meshes well with sources from the Russian side.
Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: ‘Our troops are not being protected’
KOSTIANTYNIVKA, Donetsk Oblast – Russia’s relentless assault on Bakhmut is sacrificing waves and waves of unprepared men being sent to their deaths. But multiple defenders of this embattled city in Donetsk Oblast feel that they are in a similar boat, according to interviews with more than a...
kyivindependent.com
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