The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[OPSSG]

Even with a Biden Admin there would be plenty of hawks eager to turn the screws to Putin in all sorts of creative ways to halt the Russian military. I would imagine those options aren't completely off the table either... but for now the admin has decided that those options come with too much risk.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501333459972800527

1. Victoria Nuland, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs said: “I saw that announcement by the government of Poland as I was literally driving here today. So to my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they plan to give these planes to us.” The proposal to transfer fighters to Ukraine, looks dead in the ditch.

2. If Russia didn’t have 150 million people, a big piece of global commodity export, a massive military and Vladimir Putin did not have his hands on the nuclear trigger of thousands of nuclear weapons, this would not worry me that much. The Russian Army also had to adapt its campaign in Ukraine, which moved from the use of light forces to achieve objectives. Given the level of Ukrainian resistance, this has changed back to a methodical campaign of attrition — the cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain encircled by Russian forces and continue to suffer heavy Russian shelling.

3. Any "Limited No Fly Zone" idea is a backdoor path to war with Russia — with potential for nuclear escalation. Americans need to debate whether it is in NATO’s interests here justify that risk. However, a No-Fry Zone has been implemented by McDonalds — "McDonald's has decided to temporarily close all our restaurants in Russia and pause all operations in the market," CEO Chris Kempczinski said.

4. From the start, Vladimir Putin has made clear that this is a war of escalation. He threatens to be more destructive even if that means resorting to a nuclear weapon. Or to put it another way, escalate to descalate.

​

(a) Pre-war estimates suggest Russia had amassed about 125 battalion tactical groups on the Ukrainian border out of 168 available. This means 43 more could theoretically be added into Ukraine.​

​

(b) War games after in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine have suggested that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes that his regime is threatened — a more likely option would be a sudden nuclear test or a high-altitude nuclear detonation that damages the electrical grid over a major Ukrainian city. If the war drags on without a Russian victory, some believe that Putin will eventually use a tactical nuclear weapon (detonated outside of NATO jurisdiction) to extract a favourable settlement.​

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Another map, grain of salt, etc.

Readovka

Актуальная карта военных действий на 08.03.2022 Сегодня снова был объявлен режим тишины, и снова эвакуация везде провалилась. Видимо, по этой причине на линиях фронта опять тихо. Ну почти. До режима тишины, ночью, было несколько ударов в районе Житомира, Киева и Краматорска. Выстрелы сегодня...

t.me

Kiev.

A civilian car was shot up in Kiev, occupants allegedly killed. It's unclear who did it.

ANNA NEWS

Вооруженные неизвестные растреляли машину в Киеве Вооруженные неизвестные растреляли машину мирных жителей в пригороде Киева. Машина с убитым простояла все утро. @anna_news

t.me

Tank traps in north-western Kiev.

Милитарист

Противотанковые ежи на въезде в Киев с северо-запада, 8 марта

t.me

Around Kiev.

A customs storage facility is on fire near Kiev.

Caucasian Bureau || Кавказское бюро

Под Киевом горит таможенный склад. @Caucasian_bureau

t.me

A Russian strike hit a military base in Borispol', near Kiev.

BelVestnik

⚡Фото авиаудара ВКС России по военной части в Борисполе.

t.me

Russian troops in Brovary, east of Kiev.

Повёрнутые на войне

Богдановка (Броварской р-н), БТР-82А ВС РФ едет по улицам. Ну, с Чернигова и Сум помощь Киеву уже точно не придёт. С востока город отсечён практически полностью, ждём развития.

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Allegedly Russian airstrikes in Kharkov.

Синяя Z Борода

⚡️✊Бомбовые удары русской авиации под Харьковом

t.me

Allegedly Russian strikes at Balakleya. This raises some questions since there were reports of Russian troops moving through the town.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ВКС России нанесли мощные авиаудары в районе Балаклеи, где расположены крупнейшие склады вооружений ВСУ Местные сообщают, что пролетело 2 самолёта и скинули 3 бомбы. Харьковская область. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Репортёр Руденко V

Балаклея полыхает в эту минуту Харьковская область. Удары ВКС РФ

t.me

Battle damage in Kharkov.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

Харьков, Сумская (Жемчужина города) @OpenUkraine

t.me

Ukrainian Uragan operating out of Northern Saltovka, Kharkov.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia captures a BTR-4 in Kharkov area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian National Guard at the Zaporozhskaya NPP.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Росгвардия полностью контролирует ситуацию на Запорожской АЭС t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще одно видео

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

A destroyed Ukrainian S-300PS TEL near Kherson. The context makes me wonder about the date of the footage. I doubt Ukrainian SAMs are rolling around Kherson roads at this time.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

ANNA NEWS

Полыхающая ЗРК С-300 "Фаворит" украинской армии в Херсонской области. @anna_news

t.me

Wreckage of an allegedly Ukrainian downed Su-25 in Kherson area.

ANNA NEWS

Обломки штурмовика Су-25 ВВС Украины, сбитого в Херсонской области Предполагается, что это один из тех двух украинских штурмовиков, которые сбили российские силы ПВО 6 марта в Херсонской области. Подробнее об этом в нашем материале @anna_news

t.me

A destroyed Ukrainian column in Kherson. It looks to be mostly trucks, but I can see an MBT in the distance in the end. Not sure whose or what type.

Лик Войны

#Донбасс #Херсон Уничтоженная колонна ВСУ на юге Херсонской области.00:02 сгоревший ГАЗ-51/63 ВСУ. Жаль старичка, ему бы в хорошие руки либо в музей...

t.me

Ukrainian Kord special purpose team, National Guard, on the rood of the airport in Nikolaev.

Ясиноватая, Донбасс на линии огня

Подразделение Корд НПУ на крыше аэропорта в Николаеве. Работают ПТРК Конкурсами 07.03.2022

t.me

Alleged Russian troop column north of Nikolaev, village Kandybino.

Рыбарь

ВС РФ продолжают стягивать войска для полной блокады Николаева. Местные жители села Кандыбино запечатлели колонну ВС РФ, направляющуюся для блокирования города с севера. Одновременно возобновились бои в Корабельном районе Николаева и н.п.Балабановка: ВС РФ наступают со стороны Прибугского и...

t.me

Reports out of Snegirevka, Nikolaev region, Russian supply column, followed by troops.

Военный Осведомитель

ВС РФ в городе Снигирёвка в Николаевской области. Сообщается, что местная Тероборона несмотря на наличие оружия, не стала оказывать сопротивление.

t.me

Russian military train in southern Ukraine, it was allegedly involved in evacuating foreigners from Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zvezdanews

⚡Российский бронепоезд обеспечил эвакуацию 248 иностранцев, в том числе 40 украинцев, из Херсонской области в Крым. Военнослужащие организовали безопасный выезд для граждан Турции, Египта, Азербайджана, Пакистана, Швеции, Италии, Бразилии, Индии и Марокко. В дальнейшем будет решаться вопрос по...

t.me

Reports of large numbers of Ukrainian wounded soldiers arriving at hospitals in Odessa.

БелВПО

❗️ СМИ Одессы сообщают, что в Одесский военный госпиталь ежедневно привозят раненых бандеровцев. Как сообщают врачи, мест нет,все забито,нет лекарств. Администрация города от этих проблем открестилась.

t.me

Allegedly a Ukrainian territorial defense officer from the 124th territorial defense bde was captured by Russian state security forces while trying to access a stash of weapons and explosives.

А

You can view and join @ok_spn right away.

t.me

Mariupol'.

Ukrainian Novator armored car destroyed near Volnovakha.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтоженный под Волновахой украинский бронеавтомобиль "Новатор".

t.me

Russian forces enter a radio station in Berdyansk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Rebel forces on the Volnovakha-Mariupol' road.

ЧП Донецк

ЄС надає Україні новий пакет фінансової підтримки у розмірі 1,5 млрд євро в межах пакету макрофінансової допомоги, - повідомила президентка Єврокомісія Урсула фон дер Ляєн https://t.me/operativnoZSU

t.me

It appears one Ukrainian tank lost near Mariupol' had no explosives in their ERA tiles.

Ратник 2-го раZряда

⚡️Украинские танкисты под Мариуполем воевали с муляжами динамической защиты. Оба танка в Гнутово были выведены из строя военнослужащими 9 полка НМ ДНР с помощью старого, доброго РПГ-7.

t.me

Donetsk radio is transmitting propaganda telling Ukrainian forces to put down their weapons and exit Mariupol' using a humanitarian corridor.

⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ

Прислал подписчик из Мариуполя. По Донецкой радиостанции в Мариуполе звучат вот такие сообщения для оставшихся украинских военных. Никому не нужно лишнее кровопролитие.

t.me

A civilian female from Volnovahka claims she and her son voted for the DNR in the referendum, and her son was threatened by Ukrainian fighters for it. Interesting to note is that they are speaking Ukrainian.

Неофициальный Безсонов

Эксклюзив! Местная жительница Волновахи на украинском языке рассказывает, что они с сыном голосовали за ДНР, за что сына хотели расстрелять украинские боевики.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Sokol'niki village in LNR territory has been completely destroyed by the fighting. The person filming claims it was Ukrainian forces.

Telegram: Contact @novostldnr

t.me

Allegedly the city hospital in Izyum, badly damaged.

Colonelcassad

Читатели скинули фотку сильно поврежденной больницы в Изюме.

t.me

A report out of Izyum, allegedly most of the town is 3 days without water or electricity.

A senior Ukrainian officer from the 54th Mech Bde captured by DNR forces.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

BTR-3 in a yard in Izyum, footage is allegedly from yesterday. There are currently conflict claims about a Russian breakthrough at Izyum.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Krymskoe village, LNR area, captured by the rebels. Ukrainian forces apparently left a munitions stockpile behind.

Telegram: Contact @novostldnr

t.me

Pensions are being issued by rebel authorities in Granitnoe village. How quickly essential service can be restored is a big part of keeping the locals content.

Telegram: Contact @donetsky

t.me

The West.

An airbase in Zhitomyr got hit.

Повёрнутые на войне

Житомир, воинская часть в руинах

t.me

Military housing got hit in Zhitomyr.

Colonelcassad

Последствия удара по военному общежитию в Житомире.

t.me

Ukrainian border guard has captured men fleeing the draft. They are giving them flowers in celebration (ironically) of March 8th, international women's day.

Telegram: Contact @zheltyeslivy

t.me

Охота на ведьм

От желающих служить нет отбоя в украинских военкоматах - по этому силовики продолжают отлавливать на границе уклонистов от мобилизации. Но всё равно - наш совет, лучше так, чем выполнять преступные приказы

t.me

Lines exiting Ukraine towards Poland.

BelVestnik

⚡⚡На границе с Польшей сумасшедшие очереди. Все больше и больше людей пытаются сбежать из Украины.

t.me

Misc.

Russian Ka-52s operating over Ukraine.

Оперативные сводки

⚡️Уничтожение зенитной установки и бронетехники ударными вертолетами Ка-52 во время спецоперации на Украине. Экипажи армейской авиации ВКС России успешно выполняют свои задачи, в том числе ночью и в любые погодные условия. @opersvodki

t.me

An abandoned Russian Reostat artillery recon vehicle for the VDV, location unknown.

Защищенный "Реостат"

1В119 Реостат с дополнительной броней по бортам, из под контейнеров для снарядов, я так понимаю?

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Rocket launchers allegedly captured from the 72nd Mech Bde by Russian forces, location unknown.

China army

Украина применяет иностранное оружие против Вооружённых Сил России 72-я механизированная бригада ВСУ использует в ходе специальной операции, проводимой ВС РФ, поставленные Данией противотанковые гранатометы M72 Enhanced Capacity, Великобританией - противотанковые управляемые ракеты NLAW и...

t.me

Russian National Guard from Chechnya in Ukraine, location unknown. They appear to be operating a captured Ukrainian Varta armored car.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

NLAWs and alleged western instructors for Azov btln.

BelVestnik

⚡️В Харьков к нацистскому батальону Азов прибыли гранатометы NLAW и НАТОвские инструкторы (в подарок)

t.me

A Tu-141 Soviet-era UAV was downed in Ukraine. Unclear whose, though the last known operator of the type was Ukraine, not Russia. But it's plausible Russia returned them to service and is using them as decoys.

Военный Осведомитель

Коллеги, судя по всему, это обломки оперативно-тактического разведывательного БПЛА Ту-141 «Стриж». В этих обломках «Стрижа» выдает как неплохо сохранившийся ТРД КР-17А, так и характерная для Ту-141 задняя "лыжа". Данные БПЛА уже давно были сняты с вооружения российской и украинской армий...

t.me

Sescha airbase, 160kms from Ukraine. 42 AN-2 biplanes are sitting there, along with Il-22PP, Il-76s and Il-20M. It's possible Russia has picked up Azerbaijan's playbook regarding using unmanned An-2s to get the enemy to reveal their air defense positions. Imagery is from March 3rd.

Telegram: Contact @Radioskaner

t.me

Russian A-50 and Mi-26 at Baranovichi airbase, Belarus.

Telegram: Contact @Radioskaner

t.me

Ukrainian territorial defense fighter with a Panzerfaust-3, location unknown.

Рыбарь

Вот пример типичного представителя территориальной обороны, одна штука. В наличии немецкий противотанковый гранатомет Panzerfaust 3. Информация от производителя в обзоре гранатомета: Специалисты фирмы Dynamit Nobel убеждены, что эффективное применение гранатомётов Panzerfaust 3 невозможно...

t.me

 

[ngatimozart]

So "official" forces carrying out operations meant to terrorize a population are not terrorists, but military forces fighting for some geopolitical reasons are? So where the US soldiers in Iraq terrorists? What about the highly trained NZSAS fighters that New Zealand sent to Afghanistan? The Afghani's never asked ISAF to come to occupy their country for over a decade.

So is a major power exercising force for their geopolitical aims terrorism, or does that only count when you don't agree with their aims?

Actually you will find that the Afghanistan war is legal under Chapter VII Article 51 of the UN Charter. So NZ military involvement in Afghanistan was perfectly legal. If you care to check your history you will find that the US was subject to a mass terrorist attack by Al Qaeda on 11/9/2001 and Mohammed bin Laden and his followers were tracked to Afghanistan. When the then Taliban government refused to handover bin Laden and co after being requested to by the US government, an ultimatum was served which the Afghani government ignored, so the US and allied forces invaded in October 2001. On 5/12/2001 the UNSC unanimously adopted UNSC Resolution Number 1378, which authorised ISAF. NZDF and NZ Police were present under that authorisation.

 

[JGCAC]

I don't mean to offend or put down any of the good folks running these excellent forums. But stuff like this is pretty lame:



source: post 1268.

A sign of the times, I guess.

 

[OPSSG]

I don't mean to offend or put down any of the good folks running these excellent forums. But stuff like this is pretty lame:

View attachment 49002

source: post 1268.

A sign of the times, I guess.

1. Toptob’s post contains deliberate factual errors and he knows the drill for this wrist slap. This is his 2nd ‘red text’ warning for going off-topic in this thread and his 3rd time getting warning points (and for violating rule 11).

So "official" forces carrying out operations meant to terrorize a population are not terrorists, but military forces fighting for some geopolitical reasons are? So where the US soldiers in Iraq terrorists? What about the highly trained NZSAS fighters that New Zealand sent to Afghanistan? The Afghani's never asked ISAF to come to occupy their country for over a decade.

So is a major power exercising force for their geopolitical aims terrorism, or does that only count when you don't agree with their aims?

Actually you will find that the Afghanistan war is legal under Chapter VII Article 51 of the UN Charter. So NZ military involvement in Afghanistan was perfectly legal. If you care to check your history you will find that the US was subject to a mass terrorist attack by Al Qaeda on 11/9/2001 and Mohammed bin Laden and his followers were tracked to Afghanistan. When the then Taliban government refused to handover bin Laden and co after being requested to by the US government, an ultimatum was served which the Afghani government ignored, so the US and allied forces invaded in October 2001. On 5/12/2001 the UNSC unanimously adopted UNSC Resolution Number 1378, which authorised ISAF. NZDF and NZ Police were present under that authorisation.

2. Another moderator, ngatimozart, provided factual corrections to Toptob’s post on NZDF’s legal mandate to operate in Afghanistan. I note that deliberately posting false info is trolling, given the fact that the UN Security Council has passed a number of relevant resolutions on Iraq, in particular 1500 (2003), 1546 (2004), 1557 (2004), 1619 (2005), 1700 (2006), 1770 (2007), 1830 (2008), 1883 (2009), 1936 (2010), 2001 (2011), 2061 (2012), 2110 (2013), 2169 (2014), 2233 (2015), 2299 (2016), 2379 (2017), 2421 (2018), 2522 (2020) and reiterating resolution 2107 (2013) on the situation between Iraq and Kuwait, and as set forth in 2367 (2017), and 2576 (2021). The last UNSC resolution renewed the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) till 27 May 2022.

3. @JGCAC, no offence taken. If you don’t like moderation, we can ban you as a next step. The Moderators have spoken — observe the forum rules, follow the directions given or face sanctions.

4. No reply is necessary.

 

[phreeky]

Reports of large numbers of Ukrainian wounded soldiers arriving at hospitals in Odessa.

I'm very curious what has happened to all of the Russian soldiers. There are an insane number of photos of abandoned and/or immobilised Russian vehicles of various kinds, and the only footage I've seen was a barn full of them talking about being forced to sign resignation/discharge papers - https://www.reddit.com/r/CrazyFuckingVideos/comments/t5sk2w (I'm trusting the provided translation, apologies if it's incorrect).

Are the rest just walking back towards the border? When this is all over will there be a lot of bodies of Russian soldiers in the snow?

edit: Apologies, trying to link but it keeps embedding

 

[Feanor]

I'm very curious what has happened to all of the Russian soldiers. There are an insane number of photos of abandoned and/or immobilised Russian vehicles of various kinds, and the only footage I've seen was a barn full of them talking about being forced to sign resignation/discharge papers - https://www.reddit.com/r/CrazyFuckingVideos/comments/t5sk2w (I'm trusting the provided translation, apologies if it's incorrect).

Are the rest just walking back towards the border? When this is all over will there be a lot of bodies of Russian soldiers in the snow?

edit: Apologies, trying to link but it keeps embedding

It's a great question. I suspect a lot of vehicles are being abandoned due to technical malfunctions, or after taking relatively minor damage but losing mobility. Russian evacuator services are failing miserably. Which means there probably aren't that many bodies, and the soldiers would presumably leave with the rest of their unit. But it really remains to be seen. Russia admitted to 498 KIA but that was day ago, and likely understated. We may have to wait for more information, possibly even the end of the war. Censorship inside Russia has also been dialed up.

 

[Pentaprism]

Actually you will find that the Afghanistan war is legal under Chapter VII Article 51 of the UN Charter. So NZ military involvement in Afghanistan was perfectly legal. If you care to check your history you will find that the US was subject to a mass terrorist attack by Al Qaeda on 11/9/2001 and Mohammed bin Laden and his followers were tracked to Afghanistan. When the then Taliban government refused to handover bin Laden and co after being requested to by the US government, an ultimatum was served which the Afghani government ignored, so the US and allied forces invaded in October 2001. On 5/12/2001 the UNSC unanimously adopted UNSC Resolution Number 1378, which authorised ISAF. NZDF and NZ Police were present under that authorisation.

Correct.

Mod edit: Text deleted. Any further off topic political discussion on UNSC will be deleted. Directed at no one in particular, we remind all that the onus is on the poster to be factual and correct. Deliberately using false info is trolling.

 

[Bob53]

Neither the Syrians or the Russians have attempted to use the S400 against Israel so we don't really have any information on how effective it would be. Israel would definitely overcome it in my opinion (and then prob teach Assad some lesson for daring to use it). How many Aircraft they would lose before overcoming it is an unanswered question.

Relations between Russia and Israel are nowhere near dire enough that Russia is going to attack Israeli Assets with the S400.

Really?

Israel does not provide air defence coverage to the whole of Syria, only specific areas. Targets hit by Israel.are not in.areas covered by the Russians. Also, we really can't say for sure that Israel's ability to penetrate Syrian airspace gives a real indication of the effectiveness of any AD system given that whatever AD systems the Syrians have may not be deployed in the way they should be, as part of an integrated and layered GBAD.

I think you mean Russia in first word but all I can say is that the Israelies don’t seem concerned about s400 at all. Unanswered Israeli Air Strikes Against Syria Raise S-400 Questions - Breaking Defense

 

[Big_Zucchini]

How are Israel and Syria related to a Ukraine thread?
If the center of debate is S-400 in the context of Ukraine, then I'll throw my 2 cents in:

I've said in the past Russia would be mistaken to insert all its troops into Ukraine. The US officially claimed it did, and I believe that is a tactical mistake. It now leaves the vast majority of Russia's combat units in a limbo. Whatever retreats for R&R is not going to be nearly as effective in either material, training, or morale, as before.

I think the same would be true for any advanced air defense system - particularly the S-400. If they enter Ukrainian territory to close the airspace and avoid LoS limitations, they risk losing too many systems, leaving Russia vulnerable.

Russia's relatively massive arsenal of long range air defenses is most simply explained by the limited size of its air force, and the air force's limited capabilities.
It would seriously bite into its ability to monitor and defend its airspace, either along the borders and above its cities.

That said, Russia is not doing as bad as many make it to be. Its massive losses are not even 10% of what it currently has in Ukraine.

The flip side of the coin is that if Russia enters its S-400 units into Ukraine, it would be a sign that Ukraine might be nearing capitulation.

 

[Bob53]

How are Israel and Syria related to a Ukraine thread?
If the center of debate is S-400 in the context of Ukraine, then I'll throw my 2 cents in:

I've said in the past Russia would be mistaken to insert all its troops into Ukraine. The US officially claimed it did, and I believe that is a tactical mistake. It now leaves the vast majority of Russia's combat units in a limbo. Whatever retreats for R&R is not going to be nearly as effective in either material, training, or morale, as before.

I think the same would be true for any advanced air defense system - particularly the S-400. If they enter Ukrainian territory to close the airspace and avoid LoS limitations, they risk losing too many systems, leaving Russia vulnerable.

Russia's relatively massive arsenal of long range air defenses is most simply explained by the limited size of its air force, and the air force's limited capabilities.
It would seriously bite into its ability to monitor and defend its airspace, either along the borders and above its cities.

That said, Russia is not doing as bad as many make it to be. Its massive losses are not even 10% of what it currently has in Ukraine.

The flip side of the coin is that if Russia enters its S-400 units into Ukraine, it would be a sign that Ukraine might be nearing capitulation.

It came up i relation to my point that the Russian AA doesn’t seem to be effective as mooted. The Ukranian airforce is still flying apparently

 

[STURM]

It came up i relation to my point that the Russian AA doesn’t seem to be effective as mooted. The Ukranian airforce is still flying apparently

Indeed and we have to ask why? From the onset did the Russians actually have a coordinated/integrated plan to use air power in conjunction with the ground invasion? When the invasion started was Russian air power tasked with neutralising Ukrainian air power or was tasked with providing - limited support to.ground forces, as well as conducting strikes on various strategic targets? Also, the Ukrainian air force is indeed still flying but how effectively is it performing and is it actually playing a part in preventing the Russians from deploying air power as they would like?

 

[catullus76]

It seems to me that more often than not tanks are a liability. If you're driving in a tank it's dead obvious where you are and you can be easily shot especially if the enemy has heat-seaking missiles and your tank does not have heat-masking equipment. I realize it may be the case that not every infantry unit has anti-tank missiles but still. Whereas if you're a solider and hiding behind some tree, it seems to me that you are much more difficult to gun down. According to this website

Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

(usual caveats about the easiness of faking pictures) 51 tanks have been destroyed or damaged and 71 have been captured. Suppose the Russians have 3000 tanks in the field, and suppose that 80% of a 4 man crew becomes casulaties then that's a 3.25% chance of becoming a casualty (152*4*.8)/(3000*4) = .0325. Now let's try to figure out the likelihood of becoming a casulty if you're not in a tank. I've seen estimates of the number of Russian casulties at around 3000, (of course I don't believe the Ukrainians who put the number at 11,000). If there have been 390 tank casaulties then there have been 2600 non-tank casulties. There are reports that now 100% of the entire 190,000 +/- 10,000 troops are now in the field though I frankly find that hard to believe. In any case, I'm obliged to defer to expert opinion. So, if there were 3000 tanks and 4 men per tank, that equals 12000 men in tanks and 178,000 men not in tanks. The casualty rate of non-tank soldiers would then be 2600/178,000 which is 1.46%. However, we have to keep in mind that I have not been able to factor in the casulties of the other clunky vehicles. Of course, you need some vehicles in order to conquer a country but it seems to me that the ratios the Russians are using is not the correct one.

All of this reminds me of the line from Lawrence of Arabic where Lawrence says that the desert is an ocean on which no oar is dipped and on this ocean the Arabs go where they please and strike where they please. It seems that that is what the Ukrainians are doing except this time it is the woods. That is at least how things are portrayed in this video

Again, I don't want to be naive. I realize these videos are selected for their propaganda purposes and they are designed to show the Ukrainians in a positive light and make the war look adventurous, just as Lawrence of Arabia was used as a figure to show the more heroic aspects of WWI. That being said, I think the calculations point to tanks being a liability or at least not used properly.

 

[STURM]

It seems to me that more often than not tanks are a liability. If you're driving in a tank it's dead obvious where you are and you can be easily shot especially if the enemy has heat-seaking missiles and your tank does not have heat-masking equipment.

Depends on the operational circumstances. The terrain, how the tanks are deployed, the support together from other combat arms, etc. Any piece of equipment can be a liability if not deployed and supported in the proper manner.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

It seems to me that more often than not tanks are a liability. If you're driving in a tank it's dead obvious where you are and you can be easily shot especially if the enemy has heat-seaking missiles and your tank does not have heat-masking equipment.

Be honest.
Is this a "tank obsolete because missile" argument?
Are you now advocating against tanks?

I need to know so I can roll my eyes the appropriate amount.

EDIT: Know what? Let's make this educational. Today we'll write a simple python script.

list_of_weapons=['infantryman',
                 'tank',
                 'helicopter',
                 'ship',
                 'rifle',
                 'anti tank missile',
                 'anti air missile',
                 'anti ship missile'
                ]

your_old_argument = 'tank is obsolete because of X'

for i in range(len(list_of_weapons)):
    new_argument = your_old_argument.replace('X', list_of_weapons[i])

 

[John Fedup]

I will let others decide on how valid this troop occupation analysis is but if it is reasonably accurate then Russia has a real problem. Furthermore if urban area destruction becomes more extensive than assumed and the insurgency is effective, the situation will be even more difficult. Probably increases the chance Putin might resort to using a nuke to send a message.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/03/09/updated_russian_occupation_of_ukraine_troop-to-task_estimate_820732.html

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1501333459972800527

1. Victoria Nuland, US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs said: “I saw that announcement by the government of Poland as I was literally driving here today. So to my knowledge, it wasn't pre-consulted with us that they plan to give these planes to us.” The proposal to transfer fighters to Ukraine, looks dead in the ditch.

2. If Russia didn’t have 150 million people, a big piece of global commodity export, a massive military and Vladimir Putin did not have his hands on the nuclear trigger of thousands of nuclear weapons, this would not worry me that much. The Russian Army also had to adapt its campaign in Ukraine, which moved from the use of light forces to achieve objectives. Given the level of Ukrainian resistance, this has changed back to a methodical campaign of attrition — the cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain encircled by Russian forces and continue to suffer heavy Russian shelling.

3. Any "Limited No Fly Zone" idea is a backdoor path to war with Russia — with potential for nuclear escalation. Americans need to debate whether it is in NATO’s interests here justify that risk. However, a No-Fry Zone has been implemented by McDonalds — "McDonald's has decided to temporarily close all our restaurants in Russia and pause all operations in the market," CEO Chris Kempczinski said.

4. From the start, Vladimir Putin has made clear that this is a war of escalation. He threatens to be more destructive even if that means resorting to a nuclear weapon. Or to put it another way, escalate to descalate.

​

(a) Pre-war estimates suggest Russia had amassed about 125 battalion tactical groups on the Ukrainian border out of 168 available. This means 43 more could theoretically be added into Ukraine.​

​

(b) War games after in the wake of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine have suggested that Putin would probably use a nuclear weapon if he concludes that his regime is threatened — a more likely option would be a sudden nuclear test or a high-altitude nuclear detonation that damages the electrical grid over a major Ukrainian city. If the war drags on without a Russian victory, some believe that Putin will eventually use a tactical nuclear weapon (detonated outside of NATO jurisdiction) to extract a favourable settlement.​

I was concerned when Victoria Nuland and Jake Sullivan were appointed to such high positions of influence, and confess that very early on I wondered whether Nuland's appointment was one among many of the inputs into the equation when Putin decided to pursue his present course. I'm sure you and others here know very well who Nuland is and her past policy and actions in Ukraine, but for those new to following this, when a media outlet firmly on the left is this critical of a choice made by a president with a D after his name -- well, it's like the cheerleaders at an American football game booing their team's coach for his choice of field goal kicker:

Who is Victoria Nuland? A really bad idea as a key player in Biden's foreign policy team

A Cold War true believer who sabotaged Obama's foreign policy, Nuland is a huge risk at the State Department

www.salon.com

Salon - Bias and Credibility

LEFT BIAS These media sources are moderate to strongly biased toward liberal causes through story selection and/or political affiliation. They may

mediabiasfactcheck.com

There have been several posts here about whether the Biden administration has an end game and if so, what it might be. Given the players (especially Victoria Nuland and Jake Sullivan) and past history, I have been concerned about this from the beginning. What was the end game in Ukraine in 2014? Whatever one might speculate it was, in reality it did not turn out so well.

What was the end game in Libya? Even I, hardly a specialist in that part of the world, could see from the very beginning that Libya would end up a failed state with various warlords fighting it out for many years to come. What was the purpose of turning Libya into a failed state? I can make a few guesses, but don't want to detail the thread. If the true desired outcome was the publicly touted one, could they really be more ignorant than little old me? Really? And then there's Syria -- what on earth was their end game there? Again, if as publicly stated, incredibly naive and doomed to failure in my opinion, but will not elaborate for the sake of brevity. There are other examples (Egypt, etc.), but I'll stop there.

Wesley Clark suddenly coming out of the woodwork and making so many media appearances also concerns me. There has been little to no interest in what he had to say for the past 20 years, whichever party was in power. Now suddenly, he's popping up again and again in the media.

For the record, I am not being partisan or even political here. If the current president had an R after his name and appointed certain top advisors I would be equally concerned.

 

[STURM]

What was the purpose of turning Libya into a failed state?

The initial intention wasn't to turn it into a failed state. After Gadaffi started suppressing a rebellion the West decided he had to go. Gadaffi of course went full.circle; from a tyrant and enemy of the West, to a friend and partner [after he gave up.his WMD programme], back to tyrant and enemy of the West again. The West was under the illusion that a Libyan population which was grateful to be rid of the ''Colonel'' would be transformed into liberal democrats and would be all to eager to form a Western friendly democratic government.

It was overlooked by the West, that like in Iraq with Saddam, in Libya it was Gadaffi who held the country together. Libya under Gadaffi.was certainly not democratic but was a wealthy country with a high standard of living

And then there's Syria -- what on earth was their end game there?

Different players had slightly different end games. The West wanted a ''democratic'' Syria which which would be friendly to Israel, would sever ties with Iran and would be less Russia friendly. The Gulf Arabs couldn't care less about democracy and saw Syria mainly from the lens of the Sunni/Shia Cold War being fought against Iran. Doing away with Assad and replacing him with a Sunni dominated government would have weakened and further isolated Iran.

 

[Steinmetz]

I was concerned when Victoria Nuland and Jake Sullivan were appointed to such high positions of influence, and confess that very early on I wondered whether Nuland's appointment was one among many of the inputs into the equation when Putin decided to pursue his present course. I'm sure you and others here know very well who Nuland is and her past policy and actions in Ukraine, but for those new to following this, when a media outlet firmly on the left is this critical of a choice made by a president with a D after his name -- well, it's like the cheerleaders at an American football game booing their team's coach for his choice of field goal kicker:

I personally share such concerns as well, same with some scandals involving the last administration on the issue of Ukraine. I listened to her full congressional testimony yesterday, quite interesting. One interesting question was raised regarding Ukraine's "Biological Research Facilities." I was not aware Ukraine had such facilities, nor do I know how many facilities there are. I wonder how many facilities are there? Were any U.S. funded and how much sensitive material is in those facilities? If any were indeed U.S. funded, or had further involvement either way, one should think the United States would've or should've safeguarded such sensitive material well before the invasion commenced. I'm more concerned about the possibility of any battles taking place near any biological facilities, especially if they're really sensitive. After all, we already witnessed a skirmish at a Nuclear Power Plant.

Here's an excerpt of yesterday's testimony. I noticed she sort of dodged the initial question "Does Ukraine have Chemical or Biological Weapons?" Not saying they do at all.

Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland admits Ukraine has "biological research facilities"

Full Hearing:

Victoria Nuland Testifies on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

 

[T.C.P]

It came up i relation to my point that the Russian AA doesn’t seem to be effective as mooted. The Ukranian airforce is still flying apparently

I very curious about Russian AA as well. the Ukrainian air force is still flying but not in large numbers and they have lost units to Russian AA.

Ukraine has also successfully shotdown a few russian high end fighters- A couple of SU-34s and Su-30s ( Dont know the actual number) and they used even older Soviet AA systems. And I have seen a lot of videos of Russia making Ukranian AAs high priority targets.

So we know the Russian AAs work to an extent. So maybe the problem is Russian AA is very bad at Friend and Foe recognition and they are too scared to use it as they are afraid they will shootdown their own planes?

Syria is a curiosity as well, Are the S-300s of the Syrian military uselss or are they forbidden from using them against Israel by the Russians?

I was hoping this conflict would finally shed some light into the actual capabilities of Russian tech, but so far its the same story, too many clouds.

I am afraid that the only way we will really get any proper info on Russian systems is if India or China ever take part in a large enough conflict(someting I hope neither countries ever do).