The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Any putsch against Putin would serve the immediate objective of stopping the war. But I agree, the only people remotely capable of doing so would be from his inner circle, and those guys are cut from the same cloth. One must be delusional to assume some kind of a "color" revolution will take place and suddenly Russia goes full on liberal democracy.
It goes back to the question, how the West intends to integrate Russia into rule-based, democratic society, but still a respected nuclear power and prevent another Putin from emerging. If it is going to be seeking reparations for what Russia had done, it is only setting the stage for the next war, much like the Weimar Republic. But we are getting ahead of things.
Most likely but what if the assumptions are wrong? What if a post Putin, more open Russia still sees a need to be assertive against what it perceives are Western moves which are harmful to its interests? Most assume that a post Putin Russia will be eager to ingratiate itself with the West - I'm not so sure.
For a start, taking Kyiv would give him the "mission accomplished" reason to declare victory and to draw-down his forces. Without a visible military "trophy", it would be seen as a defeat for him to remove the troops.
I fully agree. A successful putsch will see Russia withdrawing their forces in the short term. Very little chance that it would be an opposition figure which the West knows like Navalny.
A weakened and defeated Russia is a risky proposition to anyone.
cdxbow
Well-Known Member
Worse than a belligerent and invasive one?
Considering that nukes are all they have left, yes.
Internally, it may give rise to another Putin-like character declaring that he will restore Russia to its greatness. Hence my reference to the Weimar Republic and the rise of H.
If Hitler had died in.1939 he would have gone down in history as the greatest German.statesman after Bismarck. He broke Germany free of Versallies, built up the economy, rearmed the Wehrmacht and got Danzig, the Sudetenland and Austria into the Reich, all without starting a war.
How history will judge Putin really remains to be seen. What also remains to be seen is the part the West played. What advice did it give Zelensky? Did it recommend he take a tougher stand or step back a bit? What back door discussions did the West have with Russia with the aim of averting a war? When did Putin decide that talks with the West were futile and that an invasion was needed? Where there elements in the West who saw an invasion as a chance to weaken Russia? What was the invasion plan presented to Putin by the Russian military? Did Putin personally make major changes?
How history will judge Putin really remains to be seen. What also remains to be seen is the part the West played. What advice did it give Zelensky? Did it recommend he take a tougher stand or step back a bit? What back door discussions did the West have with Russia with the aim of averting a war? When did Putin decide that talks with the West were futile and that an invasion was needed? Where there elements in the West who saw an invasion as a chance to weaken Russia? What was the invasion plan presented to Putin by the Russian military? Did Putin personally make major changes?
Before you launch a war you need to have a clearly defined objective and an exit strategy. I am not sure Russia has either.
My best guess is that Putin simply believed that the Ukrainians would roll over as soon as they saw tanks coming over the border. Putin's generals were too afraid to stand up to him and just followed orders.
That we have seen two Russian generals KIA also makes me question the competence of Russia's military leadership.
My best guess is that Putin simply believed that the Ukrainians would roll over as soon as they saw tanks coming over the border. Putin's generals were too afraid to stand up to him and just followed orders.
That we have seen two Russian generals KIA also makes me question the competence of Russia's military leadership.
And he'd left Germany bankrupt, with no foreign reserves to speak of, no international credit & industry converted to making goods which couldn't earn hard currency . . .
By 1939 Germany needed a war or a complete change of direction to prevent an economic crash. It got through 1938 & the first half of 1939 by using the foreign currency & gold reserves of Austria & Czechoslovakia & liquid assets looted from Jews to pay for essential imports. But they were running out. From September 1939 onwards it kept the economy afloat by looting conquered territories.
The bloke who'd made the 1930s boom possible by his financial engineering, Hjalmar Schacht, warned Hitler it'd only work for a few years. When he told Hitler that the limit was about to be reached & military spending & production had to be cut so exports could pay for imports, Hitler sacked him (& eventually put him in a concentration camp - he survived). But Schacht was right.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I agree Western concerns about ex-Soviet republics having nukes as opposed to sending all of them back to Russia was seemingly the safest option. Clearly, it wasn’t for ex-republics.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
What Putin’s objective is isn’t entirely clear and as for exit strategy, he certainly isn’t alone wrt that issue, just like Bush 2.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I read few comentators in Western Media that regreting Western decision to help push all ex USSR republics that have nuclear weapons in their teritory, to return it to Russia. This related to some in West wish for Ukraine to keep their Nukes, to avoid invasions.
For me, if West and Russia not pushing Ukraine to return the nukes to Russia, Khazakhstan and Belarus probably want to keep their Nukes too. Would West want Lukashenko and Nazarbayev to have nukes in their command ?
Returning the ex USSR Nukes to Russia is the only option.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Again, perhaps so, but only from a Western and Russian perspective.
I believe they are in fact Russian vehicles.
Based on Israel’s ability to penetrate Syrian airspace at will and that the Ukrainian airforce is still flying I am starting to think the fearsome S400 may not be the bogey man that the media has portrayed over the past 10 years.
To suggest that the growth of NATO to more neighbouring countries is somehow threatening Russia is grasping at straws. There would be absolutely no lack of understanding within NATO that attacking Russia would likely trigger a nuclear response, and Putin would without a doubt be aware of that.
I personally feel that Putin has done what also many managers have done throughout all forms of organisation. He has filled his ranks with "yes men", and had nobody in a suitable position to inform him that his plans had significant faults. Photos of all forms of old trucks and various hardware being trained across Russia towards their western border without a doubt implies that things are not going to plan, if anybody needed any further convincing.
I personally feel that Putin has done what also many managers have done throughout all forms of organisation. He has filled his ranks with "yes men", and had nobody in a suitable position to inform him that his plans had significant faults. Photos of all forms of old trucks and various hardware being trained across Russia towards their western border without a doubt implies that things are not going to plan, if anybody needed any further convincing.
Whilst returning the nuclear weapons to Russia may have increased the ability for Russia to invade those countries and therefore increase the likelihood of conventional war, I'd argue that it has decreased the chance of nuclear war.
Israel does not provide air defence coverage to the whole of Syria, only specific areas. Targets hit by Israel.are not in.areas covered by the Russians. Also, we really can't say for sure that Israel's ability to penetrate Syrian airspace gives a real indication of the effectiveness of any AD system given that whatever AD systems the Syrians have may not be deployed in the way they should be, as part of an integrated and layered GBAD.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I think the MAD principle would still apply. India and Pakistan have managed to hold back despite their intense dislike. The argument some looney could push the button is a concern (especially the religious type looney). The question is how many in the fire control chain really want to burn for some nut job.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I suspect it is Syrian assets being deployed incorrectly as you suggest. Highly trained and experienced pilots would be a factor as well. F-35s should be an even bigger disadvantage for Syrian GBAD as well.