The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Another example:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2010072529504023015

Some wonder about the targets near by and repeating the mantra that there must be something of military significance nearby because (the last post in the exchange):



Ghillie there, of course, doesn’t realize the target can be hundreds of km away from that site, they just hope and try to hypnotize themselves that what was hit was not the actual target.

Wessel swears that they can hear the drone trying to correct itself, so it must be the EW that is affecting its actual course. Vojtech Paclik from Czech Republic, at the same time, is suggesting that video may actually be a fake.



The whole thing reminds a badly organized support group with the attendants (some with mental issues and/or limited mental capacity) running it themselves without moderation to point out the nonsense.

 

[vikingatespam]

"Thank you for the moderation in the exercise of your power."
I cannot understand, then, your insistence on me answering questions, not everyone is answering every question. You may have noticed.

Of course no one is answering all questions, but you are answering virtually none.

Do you know that game about matching the two parts of a sentence? You provided three lines, your 3rd line:
"Unless of course the entire "NATO is a threat" is simply a lie from Putin. His actions indicate NATO is not a threat. Putin has no fear of NATO."
...
"NATO is a smokescreen...", " Putin doesn't want peace..."
Me: "Of course, if the only explanation of everything is exactly what your confirmation bias is telling you it is... You are right."
You are right, things are exactly (and only) as you say they are. My 3rd line (this shorter one is also) an answer to your, guess what?, 3rd line.

On the other hand, if we take NATO, for example, Russia has been talking about it for a very long time; an eternal smokescreen? The last thing I remember was a kind "Ukraine has the right to join NATO" statement by NATO. When did your "UKR and NATO have already agreed to keep UKR out of NATO." happened? I haven't been able to read it. Did they sing a treaty? Where?

You posted in 13532:

"Of course, if the only explanation of everything is exactly what your confirmation bias is telling you it is... You are right."

I responded in 13534:

"Another classic rsemmes response. Lacking in clarity, context and content."

What exactly is my "confirmation bias" ? Neither one of us knows what Putin is thinking. All we can do is judge by his actions. Actions such as:

1) claiming multiple different reasons for invading UKR (Nazis, biolabs, RU people, NATO, etc)
2) doing his best to push SWE and FIN into NATO
3) ignoring that UKR could not join NATO

His actions lead me to conclusions. What are you basing your logic on ?

I could very well be wrong. Maybe Putin really was afraid of (as of 2021) a dying NATO with ever reducing military expenditures and reason for existence. In which case, he sure made NATO more relevant, which strengthens NATO, not weakening it.

I am even more curious about the referendum you had in your country before invading Iraq. People decide what exactly? "This is about Putin. Putin is acting in his interest, not the interest of Russia." You mean... Business as usual? Human History? Reagan was importing drugs into US for the good of the people? Bush invaded Iraq (remember, the same dictator, good old Saddam, that invaded Iran. Reagan, again) to overcome homelessness in the US? Trump is going to invade Venezuela to provide health insurance to the US?

None of that is relevant to the UKR-RU conflict forum and only serves your desire of "whataboutism". Classic RU propaganda line.

You are right. As in "...the one who doesn't want to see." You have one opinion about Russia and NATO, western media disagrees with you; and History books too.

Let me know which western media and history books are reading Putin's mind.

Repeating "Czechoslovakia 1938" is repeating "Teschen 1938", but we all know that "International Law" is and always have been a joke, right?

??? "Czechoslovakia 1938" is a reference to disarming your opponent through treaty, only to break the treaty soon after as they (Czech.) had no means to resist at that point. Its not a reference to "international law".

 

[vikingatespam]

Ukraine decided to put a nail in the coffin of their economy:

I could be snark and say "what economy ?" UKR would be a basket case without western assistance.

Jokes aside, that is probably true. Saw someone also writing today that this is a missed opportunity for the big Euros to offer their entire military capabilities, all they have, in a show of solidarity and unity, to protect Ukraine in case of another Russian invasion knowing fully well that the Russians will reject the proposal.

Is there a single European nation that can field a fully staffed and equipped combat BDE with supplies for a month ?

The current war involves Russia first and foremost, as the aggressor and the biggest perceived threat. Russia has concerns that they had expressed and specified as the reasons for them waging the war.

Even if you assume that NATO expansion is the issue, isnt the 20 point plan already agreeing to no UKR in NATO ?

At no point so far have I seen an honest attempt to address those concerns. In the grand scheme of things, the entire situation reminds me of this thread: Russia has concerns -> but they are nonsense and should be disregarded or not taken seriously. So my take here is that this war will continue until a) these concerns are seriously addressed (regardless of what anyone believes in - if this is a fairy tale, it should be reasonably easy to address) or b) Russia is defeated, as many dream of, on the battlefield -> made to accept the terms. Nothing will change until one of the two happens (Russian victory is another option, but I am afraid a bigger war may (probably would) take place before that happens in order to prevent exactly that).

Putin wont agree to anything that blunts his maximal demands.

I doubt there will be meaningful change until either Putin dies, or UKR starts losing ground fast.

 

[vikingatespam]

If Trumps denies Venezuelan oil to China, China will have to buy more oil from Russia. Is Trump helping Russia and himself?

Trump says Venezuela will be 'turning over' up to 50 million barrels of oil to US

Earlier the president said US oil firms could be "up and running" in the country within 18 months.

www.bbc.co.uk

The problem is that there is no easy way to get more RU oil to China. There is no (RU-China) pipeline expansion in the near future (power of Siberia 2 expected to start deliveries post 2030) and you are limited to the shadow fleet of tankers.

 

[vikingatespam]

[RU Oreshnik use]

Appears to be the Russia answer to the UK and French “military hubs across Ukraine”.

No one should be surprised by this use of the O. Whats more surprising is that it didnt blow up on the launchpad like half of them do.

 

[vikingatespam]

"Whatever helps" Just like Trump, that it is illegal it is not relevant to you.

Are you paid by the Kremlin for every "whataboutism" you can introduce ? Take your Trump/Venez. concerns into another forum.

 

[vikingatespam]

I apologize for this lengthy delay on this topic. On December 15, 2025, UKR managed to sneak an underwater drone into the Novorossiysk naval base. It detonated close to a Kilo class submarine, tentatively identified as the Kolpino.

This analysis claims that sub is damaged and unavailable for further use. Since then, I have been looking for further evidence of damage or use.

The topic is also covered by Perun:

Referencing the UK MOD, this claims that the sub is out of general use:

Ukrainian underwater drone strike puts Russian submarine out of action

A Ukrainian underwater drone strike has left a Russian Kilo-class submarine heavily damaged and out of action at Novorossiysk.

cuashub.com

.

These sites claim that based upon satellite images, the sub is riding low and has likely taken on water:

'Impossible to Fix': Russia's Kilo-Class 'Black Hole' Submarines are An 'Endangered Species'

Kilo-Class submarines capable of firing the Novator Kalibr cruise missile, which has been used extensively in strikes against targets in Ukraine.

www.19fortyfive.com

and furthermore, virtually impossible to fully repair until it can reach the Baltic sea.

A google AI search for "has the Russian sub Kolpino moved since December" claims that it has not moved, and therefore is likely out of action. A grain of salt goes with AI, of course.

Im hoping that one of the typical naval channels on youtube can provide further satellite images in the near future.

 

[rsemmes]

Where exactly do you see any illegal action? Please elaborate. It becomes illegal when we lose. Before that its risk management.

Look this tanker here for example, got neutralized by a single drone, another one followed. That alone escalated the risk to the point that shipping companies avoid russia.

As for the terminal, its still closed by today. The image is from November.

As for now, all terminals at Novorossiysk are closed.

I checked, this is all tankers in the black sea at the moment. Looks good for me:

View attachment 54153

So oil transport through black sea is down by 100% as for today.

And thats why attacking those tankers was so important. Shipholders are easily scared away by such things.

“It becomes illegal when we lose.” Trump, welcome to the forum. (In what dictatorship/dystopia do you live?)

You could read what it was posted about the terminals, here, in November/December, but it seems that you only care about what you want. Keep your course steady in your fairy tale.

 

[rsemmes]

As is your want, you point out in pretty much all your posts that the west is performing illegal actions daily. It's like you believe you're on some sort of higher horse that you get to point out the hypocrisy of anyone supporting western views. I find you're much like the fence sitters who claim to be neutral and free of bias and yet every post shows otherwise. I've not hidden the fact that I support Ukraine nor do I try to obfuscate my intent.

So...
No, I did not say: "what Russia does is not illegal". I do agree; and English is not my first language.
So...
No, I did not say: “is performing”. I posted: “has been committing”; and English is not my first language.
But, I wonder if you include US in your “western” or if you want to position it “off the shoulder of Orion”. I also wonder if by “western views” you mean keeping our mouths shut about US sinking boats in the Caribbean; and then killing the survivors.
I could be that I am on top of a higher horse... It seems that I am able to see crimes committed by Ukraine and crimes committed by Russia; and by us (as I have posted). I can also see more than a few one-eyed high horses (their hypocrisy).
Do I claim to be neutral, do I claim to be free of bias? I do claim that I cannot delete from my memory what I have read, all the crimes committed by the western democracies.
“Pretty much” and “shows”. So, it “shows” but it is not there; and English is not my first language. "To hide", "to obfuscate"... Hey! English is not my first language.

One other option is that you see what you want to see.

Edit
I posted: Ukraine are a bunch of criminals, Russia are a bunch of criminals; we are a bunch of criminals. (Athens and Sparta were a bunch of criminals). High horse or not blind?

 

[rsemmes]

Of course no one is answering all questions, but you are answering virtually none.



You posted in 13532:

"Of course, if the only explanation of everything is exactly what your confirmation bias is telling you it is... You are right."

I responded in 13534:

"Another classic rsemmes response. Lacking in clarity, context and content."

What exactly is my "confirmation bias" ? Neither one of us knows what Putin is thinking. All we can do is judge by his actions. Actions such as:

1) claiming multiple different reasons for invading UKR (Nazis, biolabs, RU people, NATO, etc)
2) doing his best to push SWE and FIN into NATO
3) ignoring that UKR could not join NATO

His actions lead me to conclusions. What are you basing your logic on ?

I could very well be wrong. Maybe Putin really was afraid of (as of 2021) a dying NATO with ever reducing military expenditures and reason for existence. In which case, he sure made NATO more relevant, which strengthens NATO, not weakening it.



None of that is relevant to the UKR-RU conflict forum and only serves your desire of "whataboutism". Classic RU propaganda line.



Let me know which western media and history books are reading Putin's mind.



??? "Czechoslovakia 1938" is a reference to disarming your opponent through treaty, only to break the treaty soon after as they (Czech.) had no means to resist at that point. Its not a reference to "international law".

So, I don't answer questions (What % is “virtually none”? Is for a friend) but, I answer “lacking in clarity, context and content”, whataboutisms and propaganda; sorry, Russian propaganda.
As an anecdote or reference, Czechoslovakia 1938 is Poland taking Teschen in 1938 and how respectful we, western democracies, are of International Law.
You see Czechoslovakia but not Teschen?

 

[rsemmes]

The problem is that there is no easy way to get more RU oil to China. There is no (RU-China) pipeline expansion in the near future (power of Siberia 2 expected to start deliveries post 2030) and you are limited to the shadow fleet of tankers.

Don't you read the news? There's no need, Trump has offered China all the Venezuelan oil it wants.