and what’s the point of that comment mate!
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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Thats because you were a visitor. The things you described could be said about a lot of Asian neighbouring countries.
But I can promise you, that to the locals there are big freaking differences. To an outisder India and Bangladesh would be heard to distinguish, the culture, the food, the attire, the ethnicity, even the language ( In the bengali speaking parts of India which border Bangladesh) are the same. In large chunks of the border there is no fence or wall, just a small sign stone somewhere that is very hard to spot, the locals in the bordering towns cant even tell which country they belong to. But the 2 countries are not the same.
As much as I understand Russia's position from a geo strategic angle, their claim that Ukrainians are russians and its all the same is utter BS. Ukraine has their own culture and national identity sperate from the Russian one, even if it looks similar to us foreigners.
GermanHerman
Active Member
I find it somewhat hard to find information on how common APS systems actualy are and what the cost of them is.
There is a lot of information of varying quality about the systems and their aledged capabilities themselfs around but I have so far not seen any in action.
We saw those cylindrical "things" on syrian tanks but I think consens was found that those are propably rather jamming devices or other EW Equipment then actual APS.
Can anyone maybe share some light on the topic? I would have thought the current conflict with its wide variety of different atgms and at missles would be a perfect testing ground for APS.
On the topic of ukraine I would suggest "the lost Kingdom" from Serhii Plokhy. Although the book centers more on the russian national identity it does of cause adresses the ukrainian identity and is in general a great read and of cause highly relevant to the current conflict. There is also a "short" version to watch If you dont have the time to read the boom:
There is a lot of information of varying quality about the systems and their aledged capabilities themselfs around but I have so far not seen any in action.
We saw those cylindrical "things" on syrian tanks but I think consens was found that those are propably rather jamming devices or other EW Equipment then actual APS.
Can anyone maybe share some light on the topic? I would have thought the current conflict with its wide variety of different atgms and at missles would be a perfect testing ground for APS.
On the topic of ukraine I would suggest "the lost Kingdom" from Serhii Plokhy. Although the book centers more on the russian national identity it does of cause adresses the ukrainian identity and is in general a great read and of cause highly relevant to the current conflict. There is also a "short" version to watch If you dont have the time to read the boom:
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Unfortunately the information is lacking but I'm interested in finding out how many Russian tanks that were in the invasion were actually fitted with a APS; how it performed; the effectiveness of K-5 and the actual number of tanks lost to Javelin and MBT LAW as opposed to older wire guided SACLOS types. We also have no idea as to whether any losses were the result of tank on tank engagements.
Eventually we will know but at this juncture it also remains to be seen experience in the jraije lessons led to any fundamental long term changes with regards to how the Russians go about protecting and equipping their MBTs and whether they will have any impact on Armata development.
Eventually we will know but at this juncture it also remains to be seen experience in the jraije lessons led to any fundamental long term changes with regards to how the Russians go about protecting and equipping their MBTs and whether they will have any impact on Armata development.
kiwipatriot69
Active Member
I'd be curious myself how much the losses of Russian assets, tanks, armoured vehicles ,planes was due to them sending them poorly maintained, of the cold war era? And yes, a lack of fuel.
Also interviews I've seen online from many recruited into service from the border exersizes at the last minute, unaware they were to fight in the Ukraine?
Also interviews I've seen online from many recruited into service from the border exersizes at the last minute, unaware they were to fight in the Ukraine?
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
There are several types and subtypes of APS to talk about:
Hard-kill:
Trophy, Iron Fist, high energy lasers (air defense assets), Arena, Afghanit.
Fortunately and Ukraine, and unfortunately for Russia, they were not used in Ukraine, and Russia doesn't even have any operational AFVs with any form of hard-kill APS to begin with. It is unlikely to get any because there are no indication any domestic system has finished development, and because tanks' capabilities are not the bottleneck there.
Russian APS ironically often neglect the threat of top attack munitions that are so prevalent in the west. The western APS ironically add top attack protection despite no top attack munitions in Russia.
Hard-kill APS were proven in Gaza though, when Trophy systems intercepted ~15 ATGMs and ATRs.
Soft-kill:
Jammers/dazzlers:
Russia has T-90A tanks in stock which have the Shtora. But jammers and dazzlers are usually very threat-specific. The Shtora APS is specific to one variant of the TOW, and will be useless vs anything else.
Smoke grenades:
Could be manually or automatically activated. Can be simple smoke or some multi-spectral effectors. Smoke is generated by a fast burning agent, so it may create a heat spot that may confuse heat seeking missiles like the Javelin. The NLAW will not be affected for example after launch.
Russia has smoke grenades on its tanks, manually activated. However, their efficiency is limited and they must be used wisely to generate some effect.
Since we see many destroyed tanks that may have been ambushed, smoke grenades likely have little to no effect on their survivability.
Certain units were only informed that they were going into combat some 48 hours prior. Most units were under the impression that they were there mainly for maneuvers and in the event of crossing the border; would not see major action. This explains why units entered into combat not fully supplied for a protracted conflict and not according to prescribed training and doctrine.
Just like the Germans with zimmerit and the fact that they were the only ones actively using magnetic AT mines.
In what way? Aren't they also intended - in parallel with ERAs mounted on the roof - to also deal with top attack threats? As you're aware APSs are merely one part of the total equation; the others being ERA, Arena and smoke dischargers.
So do some Ukrainian T-80's And T-84s.
I was under the impression that the Shtora ''dazzler'' was intended to deal with a variety of Western ATGWs; whether Milan, TOW or HOT.
They can be manually operated or deployed automatically once the tank is lased by a rangefinder.
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A couple of videos assessing the Ukrainian War. The first is from Chris Capie of Task & Purpose, a former US Army grunt with combat experience in Iraq. He lists his sources.
The second is Ed Nash a British military historian. He list his source material as well.
The second is Ed Nash a British military historian. He list his source material as well.
It is neither of these, in my opinion.
Policy decisions is the function of the elected government of the day. There can be intelligence, strategic recommendations but whether the politicians want to listen is another matter. Which brings us to why decisions like Libya were made.
I see it as a strong "value judgement" when it comes to their foreign policy decision. Gaddaffi, Putin, Assad, Saddam, they fit the typical model of a "bad" guy and instinctively, if the opportunity exist to remove them from power, they will take it. This seems to be more prevalent post-Cold War. Perhaps a sense of hubris that the Western value system has won and the world is better off with it.
To that we can add Nasser [the ''Mussolini of the Nile'' he was called], Mossadegh [he had the audacity to insist the locals and not the West had full control of the national oil industry], etc. As long as they ''behaved''they were tolerated but when they ''misbehaved'' and no longer fit a purpose they become the devil incarnate.
Then there's North Korea which is safe from Western attempts at regime change because it is nuke armed. Putin is also safe; because he's the leader of Russia; not some Third world or developing country incapable of defending itself. His main threat will come from within if he doesn't rectify things.
GermanHerman
Active Member
Francis Fukuyama wrote in 1989 that allegedly liberal democracy would be the final political order in any and all states around the world. This theory gained a lot of attention and the end of the soviet union seemed to prove it right to some extent.
"the end of history" is still in the mind of a lot of people involved in politics and therefore a good read if one wants to gain insight into the mindset of western political elite.
When the idea of american exceptionalism can be traced back to Winthrops famous speech you can trace back a lot of the ideas driving the failed attempts of nation building through interventionism by the West Back to Fukuyamas "end of history".
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
How sure are you this is the case? Invasion-ready stock was prepositioned months in advance of repositioning of troops. It makes sense not to tell them until shortly prior to avoid rumors spreading to Ukraine.
They had enough material to send in dozens of BTGs simultaneously, and take every major city in a short time plus any battle that may ensue. The problems came when all their supplies started burning up halfway through.
Yes, except now we see China using top attack ATGMs which may pique western interest, Russia at least on paper developing such weapons, and some minor players even developing them.
Arena is a hard-kill APS, and although there are some sources that say it is capable of defending against top attack munitions, it is at least known it was not designed like that originally. It is also known it was eventually conceptually replaced by the Afghanit whose launchers are static and only protect limited areas of the tank.
ERA and any other form of armor will no longer protect a tank vs an ATGM striking from the top. It is more intended to defeat ATRs and other light weaponry.
APS like Trophy, Iron Fist, or ADS, have rotation mechanisms that point the effector at the threat. Afghanit does not.
So Afghanit is likely only capable of defeating munitions with a shallow angle of attack.
Yes, but Ukraine is mostly using ATGMs without lasers.
cdxbow
Well-Known Member
Yes, Fukuyama was a fool. I read the book at the time and was unimpressed, it wasn't an end of history, turned out it was the beginning of great stupidity. Simultaneously the US neocons at the time were touting American triumphalism and happy to engage in wasteful wars of dubious need, that ultimately did great damage to the US. Also while distracted, the PRC stole the Americans lunch. Karma is a b#tch.
I just saw Lavarov say "We're not planning to attack other countries. We didn't even attack Ukraine." He went on to express concern about the danger Ukraine stingers present to civil aviation. I wish he had as much concern for the safety of civil aircraft before the Russian or Russian backed rebels shot down MH17 and 298 souls were lost.
Thinking for a change
1. Russian forces in Ukraine have so far been slowed by their logistics problems and effective Ukrainian resistance — Chernihiv understood to be isolated, joining Mariupol. Bombardment and ground battles continue in numerous locations. The ‘fog of war’ means despite widespread recording of Russian losses and the ability to access information, we are still be none the wiser about what is really occurring in this war.
2. While Russia has better equipment and a larger army, the greatest source of advantage for Ukraine is good leadership — President Zelenskyy — he was underestimated by Team Biden and NATO before the war. Since the invasion began, he has unified his people, exhorted courage from his military, and inspired observers globally. His words “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition” electrified his soldiers and international observers.
3. On 27 Feb 2022, German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz’s speech to a special sitting of the German Bundestag fundamentally changed the paradigm of German national security thinking, and German defense posture.
4. Sad to say that Russian UAVs back out as artillery spotters. After two weeks of war, Russian forces continue employ large scale artillery and MLRS attacks to demoralize Ukrainian political resolve and military resistance.
1. Russian forces in Ukraine have so far been slowed by their logistics problems and effective Ukrainian resistance — Chernihiv understood to be isolated, joining Mariupol. Bombardment and ground battles continue in numerous locations. The ‘fog of war’ means despite widespread recording of Russian losses and the ability to access information, we are still be none the wiser about what is really occurring in this war.
2. While Russia has better equipment and a larger army, the greatest source of advantage for Ukraine is good leadership — President Zelenskyy — he was underestimated by Team Biden and NATO before the war. Since the invasion began, he has unified his people, exhorted courage from his military, and inspired observers globally. His words “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition” electrified his soldiers and international observers.
3. On 27 Feb 2022, German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz’s speech to a special sitting of the German Bundestag fundamentally changed the paradigm of German national security thinking, and German defense posture.
4. Sad to say that Russian UAVs back out as artillery spotters. After two weeks of war, Russian forces continue employ large scale artillery and MLRS attacks to demoralize Ukrainian political resolve and military resistance.
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I felt this was worth watching.
Clark was with the speaker of this talk during a visit to the Ukraine some years ago; where both visited Ukrainian units in the field and met with top brass.
From this YouTube link - ''The War In Ukraine; An Operational Assessment''. Decided not to post the link because I already have more than once here.
Russian units apparently were only told 48 hours before and the expectation was that if they did cross the border they would not faced organised and determined resistance. This explains a lot of why things turned out they way they did.
The problem is traced back to the onset when units deployed and were forced to fight in ways which were inconsistent with established training and doctrine.
Which goes back to my question in an earlier post about whether the bulk of Russia's MBT losses were caused by the Javelin/MBT LAW combo or by older wire guided SACLOS systems.
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Bobby maybe you should read the comment I was responding too, that should make my comment self-explanatory.
India Bangladesh isn't a good example, there are multiple different cultures/ethnicities in both countries.
Up until 2014 most of the people I dealt with in Ukraine considered themselves Russians who were living in Ukraine, I was mostly in the South, Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson, Crimea, all mostly Russian speaking. It's all changed now but back then it was pretty Russian. As a salty old engineer in Sevastopol said to me, he went to bed one night as a Soviet and woke up the next morning as a Ukrainian, which he was not happy about. I know he was pretty happy being a Russian last time we spoke.
The Russian speaker [a long time analyst from the days of Afghanistan] mentions the contrast with Chechnya in which several groupings
attacked from different directions but converged on Grozny; unlike the case with the Ukraine in which the various advances were aimed at different objectives. He also mentions the Ukrainians being able to call up on reserves but not the Russians who are largely keeping their reserves back in case things spread to other parts of Europe.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
We've seen many reports of use of NLAWs. As Russia advanced, we also started seeing some reports of Javelins used.
First reports on use of local Stugna/Skif only came recently, and they use laser beam riding.