Heck, Lankov will tell you that the Norks learned this "lesson" in 1989 watching Ceausescu get machined-gunned to death in the streets on TV (but the real "lesson" there isn't one I think NATO would want to dwell too much on).
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
That"s where you're wrong kid
V/R The US DoD
It is the western media, creatively reinterpreting history (revisionism) using today's lens, completely ignoring what happened.
Regarding all the information warfare going on, an interesting anecdote from my experience.
I know this person from my university days: https://twitter.com/camilapress/
She was an unironic Marxist/Communist. Now, she a "journalist" in Bolivia and retweets RT.
Like Russia, some of these people are so blinded by their hate for the West, they'll fall for anything.
I know this person from my university days: https://twitter.com/camilapress/
She was an unironic Marxist/Communist. Now, she a "journalist" in Bolivia and retweets RT.
Like Russia, some of these people are so blinded by their hate for the West, they'll fall for anything.
This thinking is part of the problem.
Doesn't matter if you don't have your audience's trust. I have family living in the West for 20+ years and they simply swallow propaganda from the home country despite being surrounded entirely by Western media and society.
Not accomodating the West is not the problem. Being unpredictable like Putin in recent months is the real danger. I think the post Cold War era clearly shows that a stable and predictable authoritarian government is preferable to an unstable war situation.
In hindsight, it seems like this was the myth swallowed by many in both east and west. This naivety along with excessive American democratic messianism are contributing factors in these crises.
Last edited:
GermanHerman
Active Member
Apparently poland will Exchange it's mit 29's for US planes via Rammstein.
Seems fairly obvious where these will end up...
Last edited:
Steinmetz
Active Member
Seems odd to me, but it's confirmed, Poland will get used F-16s out of the deal. However, doesn't make much sense to me in how those Migs will be used. It'll be one of those see it before I believe it deals, if the Ukrainians can put them to actual use or not.
Apparently poland will Exchange it's mit 29's for US planes via Rammstein.
Seems fairly obvious where these will end up...
I look forward to discovering like the German Strelas, these are also in poor materiel condition and/or inop
ETA: this is going to end up like a NATO version of a gun buyback program where everyone turns in their old pieces of junk to get shiny newer stuff.
Steinmetz
Active Member
Everyone might as well jump in on the deals while they can, if the U.S. is willing to keep giving away shiny equipment.
In other news, a Chinese media outlet by the name of "Phoenix T.V." has a field reporter covering the Donbass. Chinese media has been very active in portraying the Russian side in a more "innocent" light to their populace.
The Polish deal isn't an "exchange", they're donating their MiG-29 and "ask the US to provide it with equivalent aircraft which they are willing to buy". In other words Poland in return expects to be buying F-16, or rather to be given an opportunity to do so. Possibly at a discount, but that's not in the statement.
Steinmetz
Active Member
Interesting, keep seeing changed stories on the issue, but if that's the latest update, then that's the latest update. Yesterday a Polish official said it would be a barter deal. Then the U.S. downplayed the likely-hood of a deal. Makes me wonder if this is a bit of theatre.
White House, DoD lower expectations of Polish warplanes for Ukraine
Pentaprism
Member
Neither the Syrians or the Russians have attempted to use the S400 against Israel so we don't really have any information on how effective it would be. Israel would definitely overcome it in my opinion (and then prob teach Assad some lesson for daring to use it). How many Aircraft they would lose before overcoming it is an unanswered question.
Relations between Russia and Israel are nowhere near dire enough that Russia is going to attack Israeli Assets with the S400.
Pentaprism
Member
Sounds like a game of hot Potato. Why on earth would the US want a bunch of old Migs? Poland could give them directly to Ukraine themselves if they wanted but I'm guessing they are thinking that's a bit risky. Which it is. So they are trying to give them to the US to give to the Ukrainians. And get some F-16's at Mates Rates.
The US will presumably reach the same conclusion that the benefit of the Migs (dubious at best) does not outweigh the risk of escalation (catastrophic at worst). Can't see this going anywhere.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,355
Imagine the following scenario. Russia has completed occupation of roughly 2/3rds of Ukraine, including the coast, everything east of the Dnepr, Kiev, Zhitomyr,and down to Nikolaev-Odessa area, inclusive. Russia now tells Ukraine to negotiate with the requirements that Ukraine accept demilitarization, de-nazification (whatever that means), LDNR independence, and Russian ownership of Crimea. And Ukraine flatly refuses, instead stating that any negotiations must begin with a full Russian withdrawal, followed by reparations for the war. Now what? Russia would likely be unwilling/uninterested in advancing further west. They would certainly face growing opposition from the population. Russia would already be committed to dealing with a less-than-friendly population in some of the occupied areas (if not all). It's likely some sort of ceasefire would follow eventually. And then we'd be right back at the Minsk 2 situation. A diplomatic stalemate, low-intensity military action across a front-line, this time muc larger and further west, and a rump Ukraine that would then be in a position to start rebuilding its armed forces. And now some MiG-29s don't look so bad. They won't help you fight Russia, but they will help to rebuild your airforce, in preparation for the inevitable transition to used F-16s, give the pilots some flight hours, and perform some basic air police duties. When you consider the timeline for effectively delivering jets to Ukraine and the timeline of Russia's advances so far, it's pretty likely the transfer would come close to the end of Russian operations.
@Feanor, I don’t think the Biden Administration has an end game for a negotiated outcome, even if President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is willing to swallow a significant amount of the hash Russian terms — the Polish Mig-29 fighter transfer to Ukraine discussion, is going no where fast.
1. The defence of Kyiv is the main effort for the Ukrainian Army. A successful defence of the capital has significant political, logistic, and symbolic value. It is also the centre of an influence campaign with global reach. Therefore, the Ukrainians focussed most of their forces in its defence.
2. I think the advances on the ground will determine the start position of a negotiation. The longer the fighting drags on the poorer the outcome for Ukraine in the Southern theatre of this war. Ukraine’s poorly trained conscripts are learning to look at motorways and country roads for good locations where to ambush a Russian column or which basements in their cities they would use as strongpoints. As others have suggested, less than 1/3 of seriously wounded Russians in Ukraine are surviving because they are not getting to modern medical trauma care in time — no helicopter support to evacuate the heavily wounded, for medical care — this will have an effect on the willingness to fight. Let me put it another way. Out of 15 Russians seriously wounded in Ukraine, 10 would die because of the inability to get them to proper medical care, in time.
3. The city of Odessa, for example is a major transportation and export hub — the Southern theatre contains Ukraine’s 13 seaports, which in 2021 exported over 150 million tons of cargo. This represents 60% of exports & 50% of imports for Ukraine. Pre-war analysis identified the south as part of any Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces that surged out of the Rostov-Krasnodar area, and Crimea, did so from established Russian bases that are good logistic hubs. As others in Twitter have suggested:
1. The defence of Kyiv is the main effort for the Ukrainian Army. A successful defence of the capital has significant political, logistic, and symbolic value. It is also the centre of an influence campaign with global reach. Therefore, the Ukrainians focussed most of their forces in its defence.
2. I think the advances on the ground will determine the start position of a negotiation. The longer the fighting drags on the poorer the outcome for Ukraine in the Southern theatre of this war. Ukraine’s poorly trained conscripts are learning to look at motorways and country roads for good locations where to ambush a Russian column or which basements in their cities they would use as strongpoints. As others have suggested, less than 1/3 of seriously wounded Russians in Ukraine are surviving because they are not getting to modern medical trauma care in time — no helicopter support to evacuate the heavily wounded, for medical care — this will have an effect on the willingness to fight. Let me put it another way. Out of 15 Russians seriously wounded in Ukraine, 10 would die because of the inability to get them to proper medical care, in time.
3. The city of Odessa, for example is a major transportation and export hub — the Southern theatre contains Ukraine’s 13 seaports, which in 2021 exported over 150 million tons of cargo. This represents 60% of exports & 50% of imports for Ukraine. Pre-war analysis identified the south as part of any Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian forces that surged out of the Rostov-Krasnodar area, and Crimea, did so from established Russian bases that are good logistic hubs. As others in Twitter have suggested:
(i) Russian control of the entire southern coastline provides a foundation to encircle Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, particularly around Donbas and the line of contact.
(ii) Capturing the south provides a launch pad for any Russian break out to surround and seize Dnipro.
(iii) Possession of Dnipro would also support the Russian capture of all Ukrainian territory east of the Dneper River. This, and the capture of Kyiv, may be a key Russian decision point in offering terms to the Ukrainian leadership.
(iv) The Russian Army and Marines are postured to advance on Odessa. This is a significant operational objective in the south.
Last edited:
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,357
Can you elaborate? What do you think Biden's end game is? Logically it makes sense that the US, who was warning of Russian invasion all along, has prepared some sort of strategy to deal with it. What does a realistic desired end state look like for the US in this? I have a hard time seeing it considering the recognition of the LDNR in their administrative borders.
This is already happening. Russian troops are advancing north both east and west of the Dnepr, without taking Nikolaev or Odessa so far. I suspect the encirclement and destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces, predominantly east of the Dnepr, are the current primary strategic objective. Taking cities even, is secondary. After that they will work on reducing and taking cities. The only exceptions seem to be Mariupol' and Kharkov.OPSSG said:
Last edited by a moderator:
4. I believe Team Biden are more concerned about cracks in the NATO alliance and the interplay of American domestic politics than the welfare of Ukrainians. Biden has no plans or desire to meet Putin — the Americans can only agree on 2 things: (i) more sanctions for Russia; and (ii) more weapons for Ukraine.
5. Team Biden looks good at papering over cracks in NATO but they really can’t execute well enough to help Ukraine hold ground (i.e. the start point of negotiations). Team Biden needs to provide American leadership in the face of deep European ambivalence, after 4 years of Trump in charge.
6. IMHO, the delays in transferring fighters is forcing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to blink on recognition of LDNR. Ukraine needs its Air Force, now. What Poland agreed to is to transfer its MiG-29s to Rammstein Air Base, in Germany, under US control (to avoid a harsher Russian response). Supplying Ukraine with MiG-29s is a significant step up in military help for Ukraine. Russia threatened unspecified retaliation. The Polish supplied fighters need to be stripped of NATO-grade encrypted communication equipment and painted to serve in Ukrainian Air Force. The act now is to ‘avoid blame’ but it really allows more delays.
Q: Does it make sense to move fighters further away, from where they are needed?
7. Biden can’t swallow recognition of LDNR — it will make Democrats look weak, from a domestic politics angle.
Last edited:
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,359
I just realized I misread your post. You don't think they have an endgame. Thanks for clarifying.
Last edited by a moderator:
I think Biden Admin is more concerned about how to de-escalate the situation without creating further instability. Too much military aid and Ukraine stops the Russians putting Putin in a double down situation. The Russian domestic political situation is also likely a concern, I would guess the Biden Admin doesn't believe there would be a peaceful transition of power in Russia if it comes to that. In other words, I think the Biden Admin wants to make Putin pay a high price...but only up to a point.
Even with a Biden Admin there would be plenty of hawks eager to turn the screws to Putin in all sorts of creative ways to halt the Russian military. I would imagine those options aren't completely off the table either... but for now the admin has decided that those options come with too much risk.
Last edited by a moderator: