Ukranian Crisis

[swerve]

Russia is a solvent country; it has very little public debt. I don't buy into any Western Russian economic forecasts. Putin hides much information about the Russian economy, so he and his buddies can steal money.

Public debt isn't the problem. As others have said, the problem is corporate debt, denominated in foreign currencies. That can't be hidden by Putin, because the debts are all contracted - & recorded - abroad.

The Russian government may have to pay them, to stave off an economic collapse, but they may be too big for it to pay.

China could, but what would it want in return for rescuing Russia? And note that being rescued by China wouldn't eliminate the debt, just swap the creditors. Russia would become heavily indebted to China.

 

[swerve]

Just saw where some Tu95s were in the British Canal. the Brits are upset. It seems to be escalating.

BBC News - Russian military planes 'disrupted UK aviation'

It wasn't their presence in the English Channel (not the 'British Canal') that upset the British (& French, Belgian & Dutch) authorities, but the fact that they flew through some of the busiest airspace in the world with transponders turned off, & ignoring all attempts by ATC to contact them. That's dangerously reckless. If civilian aircraft had done that, their pilots would have been arrested.

 

[John Fedup]

Public debt isn't the problem. As others have said, the problem is corporate debt, denominated in foreign currencies. That can't be hidden by Putin, because the debts are all contracted - & recorded - abroad.

The Russian government may have to pay them, to stave off an economic collapse, but they may be too big for it to pay.

China could, but what would it want in return for rescuing Russia? And note that being rescued by China wouldn't eliminate the debt, just swap the creditors. Russia would become heavily indebted to China.

I would guess China would insist on significant information regarding Russia's aerospace manufacturing techniques, a price too high IMO. Giving such information to China would destroy Russia's aerospace export market (other than India) which is China's rival.

 

[Nick underscore]

I would guess China would insist on significant information regarding Russia's aerospace manufacturing techniques, a price too high IMO. Giving such information to China would destroy Russia's aerospace export market (other than India) which is China's rival.

No, it's along the line of economic deals. i.e. Recent $400bio for 40 years of NG.

The timing is wrong at the moment for further deals. China knows what she is doing and will use this to her advantage with her own economy, somewhat slowing at the moment.

Some military deals might be used to offset, but she really only needs engine technology (on most levels) IMV and as you said, that would be a price to high.

A strange bed fellow from a NATO standpoint will be Turkey. Economic ties between the two, are strengthening and could become a 'saviour' to some of the current Russian economic issues (possibly +0.5-1% offset on shrinking GDP forecasts)

 

[2007yellow430]

It wasn't their presence in the English Channel (not the 'British Canal') that upset the British (& French, Belgian & Dutch) authorities, but the fact that they flew through some of the busiest airspace in the world with transponders turned off, & ignoring all attempts by ATC to contact them. That's dangerously reckless. If civilian aircraft had done that, their pilots would have been arrested.

So my question is: does this constitute an escalation or not? Had they done this before? Or is it normal for them to fly without radio contact, nor transponders on? If it's something new, then it is, I suspect, if normal then the press got it wrong. do wqe do the same thing?

 

[gazzzwp]

So my question is: does this constitute an escalation or not? Had they done this before? Or is it normal for them to fly without radio contact, nor transponders on? If it's something new, then it is, I suspect, if normal then the press got it wrong. do wqe do the same thing?

This is a moot point. I tend to think that NATO should not retaliate in kind. My reasons are that NATO should set a better example by adopting principled behaviours. If Russia wants to behave like the child spoiling for a conflict then let it. Russia must be wasting valuable money on these fruitless flights across the world. Let them continue. NATO has better things to do.

Maybe a warning should be given however that if the flights do encroach on sovereign air space than military measures will be taken.

Yes I'm all for arming the Ukrainians. Yes I'm all for assisting with battlefield intelligence. I would even go as far as boots on the ground and telling Russia that if they really do have no troops in the area as they consistently claim then if NATO engages these rebels then they are in no way engaging Russia.

I would sell it to Russia on the basis of securing sovereign territory and providing long term stability in the region from these unknown illegal combatants. If nothing else it could force Russia into telling the truth and declaring it's real intent.

 

[swerve]

So my question is: does this constitute an escalation or not? Had they done this before? Or is it normal for them to fly without radio contact, nor transponders on? If it's something new, then it is, I suspect, if normal then the press got it wrong. do wqe do the same thing?

It's definitely not normal to fly up the English channel as if it's empty airspace. Wandering around the far north & poking at the edges of British airspace around the Shetlands & Hebrides, not having transponders on is no big deal. But flying through the most congested bit of notionally international airspace in the world with no transponders & no responses to ATC is crazy, as well as provocative.

 

[swerve]

A strange bed fellow from a NATO standpoint will be Turkey. Economic ties between the two, are strengthening and could become a 'saviour' to some of the current Russian economic issues (possibly +0.5-1% offset on shrinking GDP forecasts)

But Turkey can't afford to rescue Russia if Russian debts go bad. It doesn't have enough reserves, & is indebted itself. Turkey can handle its own debts (probably - there have been a few expressions of doubt), but not anyone else's.

All Turkey can do is take more Russian exports, & it'll probably try to get discounts if it thinks it can.

 

[John Fedup]

It's definitely not normal to fly up the English channel as if it's empty airspace. Wandering around the far north & poking at the edges of British airspace around the Shetlands & Hebrides, not having transponders on is no big deal. But flying through the most congested bit of notionally international airspace in the world with no transponders & no responses to ATC is crazy, as well as provocative.

I guess one question should be if these Russian bombers had caused a serious air accident by running with their transponders off and ignoring ATC, what would be the proper NATO response?

 

[Feanor]

cheers for response.

I wish I had an updated unit disposition for UA currently. Ones I have seen don't provide enough clarity.

There isn't one. The problem is that 1) nominal TO doesn't reflect the actual formations being used and 2) they moved a bunch of the territorial btlns into formal MoD structures, but how and in what manner is unclear. So even if you had the list, you'd still not have an accurate picture. It's like Russian formations during the first Chechen War. An MVD security company, an airmoboile recon team, and a land forces mortar battery might be combined into a company-tactical-group. Even though the airmobile recon team is from the 95th Bde, and the land forces team is from a Mech Bde (which no longer has most of it's vehicles anyways) and the MVD company is a separate company of volunteers, with no higher command structure. And they're all subordinate to a local command that has nothing to do with the brigade commands or with the regional HQ.

But Turkey can't afford to rescue Russia if Russian debts go bad. It doesn't have enough reserves, & is indebted itself. Turkey can handle its own debts (probably - there have been a few expressions of doubt), but not anyone else's.

All Turkey can do is take more Russian exports, & it'll probably try to get discounts if it thinks it can.

I don't think it's that they expect someone to pay their debts. I think it's that Russia is rapidly trying to diversify their foreign trade away from Europe. They've made a number of moves towards Turkey and Iran for example. Whether it will be successful or not remains to be seen.

Yes I'm all for arming the Ukrainians. Yes I'm all for assisting with battlefield intelligence. I would even go as far as boots on the ground and telling Russia that if they really do have no troops in the area as they consistently claim then if NATO engages these rebels then they are in no way engaging Russia.

Doesn't sound smart. Sounds like it would drive Russia up the wall, and cause them to act in all kinds of risky and unpredictable manner. How do you want this to end?

 

[Nick underscore]

But Turkey can't afford to rescue Russia if Russian debts go bad. It doesn't have enough reserves, & is indebted itself. Turkey can handle its own debts (probably - there have been a few expressions of doubt), but not anyone else's.

All Turkey can do is take more Russian exports, & it'll probably try to get discounts if it thinks it can.

Apologies Swerve, maybe I should have not used the word 'saviour 'as its too strong. Turkey wil prove itself as a great trade partner and will offset some short term economic issues.

There isn't one. The problem is that 1) nominal TO doesn't reflect the actual formations being used and 2) they moved a bunch of the territorial btlns into formal MoD structures, but how and in what manner is unclear. So even if you had the list, you'd still not have an accurate picture. It's like Russian formations during the first Chechen War. An MVD security company, an airmoboile recon team, and a land forces mortar battery might be combined into a company-tactical-group. Even though the airmobile recon team is from the 95th Bde, and the land forces team is from a Mech Bde (which no longer has most of it's vehicles anyways) and the MVD company is a separate company of volunteers, with no higher command structure. And they're all subordinate to a local command that has nothing to do with the brigade commands or with the regional HQ.

As I had figured, but thank you for taking the time

 

[Muukalainen]

Apologies Swerve, maybe I should have not used the word 'saviour 'as its too strong. Turkey wil prove itself as a great trade partner and will offset some short term economic issues.

As I had figured, but thank you for taking the time

I would seem that Turkey is either making sure that it has a foot in both camps or that they plan to sell off the NATO or Russia; neither of these options are mutual-exclusive. Turkey is a part of NATO and is supposed to be a big buyer for the F-35, 100 planes. I also believe they have NATO Patriots based there as well.

 

[Feanor]

I would seem that Turkey is either making sure that it has a foot in both camps or that they plan to sell off the NATO or Russia; neither of these options are mutual-exclusive. Turkey is a part of NATO and is supposed to be a big buyer for the F-35, 100 planes. I also believe they have NATO Patriots based there as well.

It's not NATO they're unhappy with. They're unhappy with the EU. And getting friendly with Russia is not only economically advantageous, but an excellent way to show the EU the alternative to accepting Turkey as a member. Visiting Crimea with an "unofficial" trade delegation is an excellent way to show their dissatisfaction with the EU.

 

[Spacearrow99]

Public debt isn't the problem. As others have said, the problem is corporate debt, denominated in foreign currencies. That can't be hidden by Putin, because the debts are all contracted - & recorded - abroad.

The Russian government may have to pay them, to stave off an economic collapse, but they may be too big for it to pay.

China could, but what would it want in return for rescuing Russia? And note that being rescued by China wouldn't eliminate the debt, just swap the creditors. Russia would become heavily indebted to China.

Russian corporations can fail, and external creditors will find it next to impossible to get back their hundreds of Billions of dollars in collateral with current tensions. We don't how much petroleum make up the Russian federal budget. And the real production costs of the Western Siberian oilfields. Plus the money Putin has stashed away in banks around the world. Russia has many cards before it will face economic collapse.

 

[Waylander]

If Russian companies just default they have no chance to get any credit lines outside of Russia for investments and ongoing operations.

And they would have to open up under other names. Just stopping repayments without eliminating the company itself would also exclude them from international finance sector as all assets and accounts abroad would be immediately seized by their debtors. This happens anyway but without starting under a new name it would become a permanent problem.

This would be a serious blow for the Russian economy as it would not only cut of Russian companies from international markets it would also wcare away the last willing foreign investors.

 

[swerve]

Russian corporations can fail, and external creditors will find it next to impossible to get back their hundreds of Billions of dollars in collateral with current tensions. We don't how much petroleum make up the Russian federal budget. And the real production costs of the Western Siberian oilfields. Plus the money Putin has stashed away in banks around the world. Russia has many cards before it will face economic collapse.

Those Russian corporations would find it next to impossible to trade overseas if they defaulted on debts. Want to rent an office? Cash in advance, please. Want to open a bank account? Payments out of it immediately frozen by court orders. Want to sell a tanker full of oil? Court order impounding the cargo delivered to captain as soon as it docks.

They'd be reduced to selling to countries that ignore legality, at much less than world prices, & having to make sure at all times that none of their assets touched anywhere else.

Or, as Waylander says, they'd have to close down. New firms would have to buy up the assets, & satisfy foreign courts that they really were different legal entities, with different beneficial owners, & even then they'd not get credit for quite a while, & they'd have lost all overseas assets, & perhaps face claims in Russian courts.

 

[Spacearrow99]

Those Russian corporations would find it next to impossible to trade overseas if they defaulted on debts. Want to rent an office? Cash in advance, please. Want to open a bank account? Payments out of it immediately frozen by court orders. Want to sell a tanker full of oil? Court order impounding the cargo delivered to captain as soon as it docks.

They'd be reduced to selling to countries that ignore legality, at much less than world prices, & having to make sure at all times that none of their assets touched anywhere else.

Or, as Waylander says, they'd have to close down. New firms would have to buy up the assets, & satisfy foreign courts that they really were different legal entities, with different beneficial owners, & even then they'd not get credit for quite a while, & they'd have lost all overseas assets, & perhaps face claims in Russian courts.

I already know the information you stated above.The real production costs of the Western Siberian oilfields is key to this situation. About 90 % of Russia's economic problems is due to the low price of crude oil. China and India will keep making deals with defaulting Russia corporations. Russia has many cards before it will face economic collapse.

 

[2007yellow430]

India imports 75% of it's imported arms from Russia. China uses them for some of it's weapons, Iran needs some of their material. They sell oil to China, and a good many other countries. I don't see them going bankrupt. Default maybe, but that will just force them to use a currency and banking system other than the USA's system. This isn't going to be good for anyone, if it continues, and the sanctions get worse.

 

[KiwiRob]

Merkel and Hollande are off to Kiev and Moscow next week. My guess is they offer Russia official recognition of Crimea as an integral part of Russia if they stop supporting the rebels.

 

[Feanor]

Merkel and Hollande are off to Kiev and Moscow next week. My guess is they offer Russia official recognition of Crimea as an integral part of Russia if they stop supporting the rebels.

That would be stupid. Russia isn't going to stop supporting the rebels. They want a settlement that involves some guarantees that Ukraine won't be taken under the next round of EU expansion. This means talking about the EU association agreement, and guaranteeing certain things about Ukraine's internal political arrangement..