Ukranian Crisis

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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thank you Feanor for keeping us all updated.

Your updates, along with other reports seem to illustrate this is heating up again sadly. The Donetsk airport situation would seem to be tipping against the Kiev Govt.
They can't effectively resupply the troops in the airport, and the rebels have a steady stream of supplies coming from Russia. As long as fighting continued, it really was a matter of time. The question is how much this can heat up without the negative OSCE observer reports forcing the EU into action again. There are unconfirmed rumors that the rebels are going to or are currently breaking the cease-fire because they want to take all of Lugansk and Donbass, or as much as they can. As is Ukraine is basically shutting down and blocking off the rebel regions completely, essentially treating them as a hostile foreign country rather then as one of their own provinces in revolt. I wouldn't be surprised if the rebels don't want the conflict to settle along those lines.

Do you think there is a view from the RF, that the cover of 'no direct involvement' is now at an end?
I came across a theory that Russia is using the conflict in Ukraine as an opportunity to combat test some of their new and shiny gear. I think we can say that this is correct. Fragments of what could be a missile from the Pantsyr were found in the conflict zone, Kornet-M ATGM tubes, possible traces of another advanced ATGM (the Hermes), indirect evidence of the use of guided artillery and mortar shells, massive and widespread use of UAVs, etc.

Can I ask a question if you have seen the usage of the word of 'Cyborgs' in reference to some Ukrainian military personnel/ units? This is just a slang reference to look of some troops with proper equipment, yes?

Cheers
It's used to refer to the Ukrainian troops that held the portions of the Donetsk airport that are still in Ukrainian hands. It's intended as a compliment, implying that what they did there was superhuman.
 

alexkvaskov

New Member
I came across a theory that Russia is using the conflict in Ukraine as an opportunity to combat test some of their new and shiny gear. I think we can say that this is correct. Fragments of what could be a missile from the Pantsyr were found in the conflict zone, Kornet-M ATGM tubes, possible traces of another advanced ATGM (the Hermes), indirect evidence of the use of guided artillery and mortar shells, massive and widespread use of UAVs, etc.
And burn up some old gear lying around in storage. Where was this theory voiced?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
And burn up some old gear lying around in storage. Where was this theory voiced?
Yes. They're also ditching types. The Russian government bought several vehicles in small batches, non-systematically, between '91 and today. The Vodnik, Vystrel, and weird MT-LB variants are among them.

This theory was voiced on a Russian livejournal, I forget exactly where, but it was corroborated by claims from a Ukrainian poster (anrei-bt) who gathered a considerable quantity of evidence. It also correlates with other information.
 
Thanks for the reply Feanor.

Just out of curiosity and going from some info provided (some evidence based), which has been around for some time, but in some cases not fully confirmed - Would you say the below is correct? Not stating the entire unit is/was involved, but BG's and lowers elements seem to have been provided 'predominately' from the following.

136 MRB - comfirmed above
19 MRB
8 Gds (Mountain) MRB
17 Gds MRB (Indep)
18 Gds MRB (Indep)
19 Gds MRB (Indep)
234 Air-Assault Rgt - Comfirmed from Pskov region and casualties
247 Air-Assault Rgt
EDIT; 331 Gds Airborne Rgt (part of 98 Div.)- some KIA and captured
31 Gds Airborne Bgde - Identified as the 'Mirotvorcheskiye Sily' or 'MC'

Haven't included Spetsnaz & Artillery/ MLRS units (I'm fairly sure 45 Gds Spetsnaz was quite active)
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting list, given that there is almost no real info. Looks a little large too. The 17th and 19th mrbs definitely contributed personnel to the rebels but I don't know about actual units involved. I can't really say much. There's too little information.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Heavy fighting has resumed around the airport. It looks like a rebel offensive made significant gains but government troops are counter-attacking towards the airport. There are reports that government troops have broken through from peski to the airport. Another ukrainian army unit may have entered the outskirts of donetsk and has engaged the rebels there. I'll post more information here when I have it.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The airport has fallen. The rebels are firmly in control. In the last attempt to counter-attack, a number of government airborne soldiers were captured (8), including a high-ranking officer of unknown rank. Last link has videos of the POWs.

Fighting has shifted towards Peski and Avdeevka.

bmpd - Донецкий аÑропорт оÑвобожден
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐÑропорт вÑе
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Кто же попал в плен?
ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð”ÐР перешла в контрнаÑтупление на ПеÑки и Ðвдеевку
ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð”ÐР перешла в контрнаÑтупление на ПеÑки и Ðвдеевку

Western weapons were captured in the airport.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ÐР-ка, болтовка, "глок", "браунинг", "негев" и ТыДы...

Ukraine also seems to have lost checkpoints 31 and 29 near Bakhmutka. Checkpoint 31 was lost earlier, but apparently re-captured, and now lost once again.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - 29-й и 31-й поÑÑ‚Ñ‹ атаковали регулÑрные воинÑкие Ñ„Ð¾Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ€Ð¾Ð²Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð Ð¾ÑÑии
ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - ÐаÑтупление

Fighting has also resumed towards Debal'tsevo.

Ð’ ДебальцевÑком направлении значительно уÑилилиÑÑŒ боеÑÑ‚Ð¾Ð»ÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑƒÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñких Ñиловиков и ополчениÑ

Meanwhile Ukrainian forces in sector B have been ordered to open fire. In case they weren't already, I suppose. Meanwhile there is commentary from a presidential adviser saying that the volunteer btln have refused orders to retake the airport.

УкраинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð»ÑƒÑ‡Ð¸Ð»Ð° приказ открыть огонь в Ñекторе "Б"

Use of the VR-3 Reys UAV (Tu-143). They flew recon over 300 objects, 48 checkpoints and 150 objects of infrastructure (bridges, powerplants, etc.) One of them landed on rebel territory.

bmpd - ИÑпользование Украиной беÑпилотных комплекÑов ВР-3 "РейÑ"

More homemade armor for Ukraine.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - От любÑщего Ñына и друзей©
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Бронепикап

A second Kraz Cougar has been destroyed near Mariupol', by mortar fire. Reportedly the passengers survived.

Под Мариуполем ополченцы подбили очередной бронеавтомобиль КрÐЗ Кугуар

Reports that 100 ex-Georgian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îêîëî ñîòíè áûâøèõ ãðóçèíñêèõ âîåííûõ ñðàæàþòñÿ íà ñòîðîíå âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë Óêðàèíû

A Russian EW unit, the MKTK-1A was seen in Donetsk. It's brand new, only accepted for service in 2012.

Ð’ ЛуганÑке обнаружили ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð»ÐµÐºÑ Ñ€Ð°Ð´Ð¸Ð¾Ñлектронной борьбы МКТК-1РДзюдоиÑÑ‚

Rebel Strela-10 have been sighted in Donetsk, in larger numbers.

Силы Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑÑ‚Ñгивают в Донецк ЗРК Стрела-10

A Ukrainian army airfield.

militarizm: Полевой аÑродром ВСУ в Сватово.

Dead Russian fighters have been delivered to St. Petersburg, from Donbass.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Æóðíàëèñòû óçíàëè î äîñòàâêå â Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðã "ãðóçà 200" ñ òåëàìè äîáðîâîëüöåâ, âîåâàâøèõ íà Äîíáàññå

The EU has decided not to lift sanctions against Russia.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãëàâû ÌÈÄ ÅÑ íå íàøëè îñíîâàíèé äëÿ ñíÿòèÿ ñàíêöèé ñ Ðîññèè

An An-72B overhauled for the National Guard, in Ukraine.

bmpd - Отремонтированный Ðн-72Ð’ Ðациональной гвардии Украины
 

Muukalainen

New Member
If this is the start of another offensive by the Rebels/Russians, I am wondering if this will be what pushes at least some of the West, excluding the U.S., more strongly in support of the Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general. However, I am not sure that even with strong support from most of the Western nations that it would be enough to stop Russia, short of all out war; I also do not believe all out war will ensue any time soon, so I am left wondering what could actually happen. I do not believe Obama will change his policy of "diplomacy" and economic sanctions except if something huge happened; i.e. Russia overtly invading any of its former bloc members. Just my metaphorical two cents.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't understand this tit for tat over Donetsk airport why don't Ukraine just bomb it rather than waist anymore lives over it.
Well for starters the airport was taken after a Smerch missile strike using apparently thermobaric warheads. So there's nothing left to bomb. It's just rubble. Second off there's a serious deficit of aircraft and aircraft munitions. Third off there's a good chance the rebels will shoot something down if there's is some sort of serious attempt to bomb the rebel forces in the airport area. And the Ukrainian airforce has already taken nasty losses in this war. Fourth off they also have a general deficit of artillery and munitions, which keeps their concentrations of artillery relatively low, and prevents them from simply annihilating the rebels. Not to mention the rebels have their own artillery and have been using it for counter-battery fire.

If this is the start of another offensive by the Rebels/Russians, I am wondering if this will be what pushes at least some of the West, excluding the U.S., more strongly in support of the Ukraine and Eastern Europe in general. However, I am not sure that even with strong support from most of the Western nations that it would be enough to stop Russia, short of all out war; I also do not believe all out war will ensue any time soon, so I am left wondering what could actually happen. I do not believe Obama will change his policy of "diplomacy" and economic sanctions except if something huge happened; i.e. Russia overtly invading any of its former bloc members. Just my metaphorical two cents.
The offensives (plural) seem to be localized. I think they intend to push Ukrainian troops back from Donetsk, to stop the shellings, and to generally even out the line of the front, taking a little additional ground, but mostly making their life easier as far as setting up their future borders and defenses.

So who reckons the Russians are genuinely sending troops in?
Good question. They're definitely sending lots of equipment. And the rebels have a lot of quality winter gear, which makes me wonder. But on the other hand rebels have recently complained about a lack of trained operators for vehicles. They claim to have a lot of vehicles ready, but no crews.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
That makes sense if Russia is supplying relatively more gear than personnel.
That doesn't make sense if Russian units are entering the fray, like the Ilovaysk battle. They would be entering with their TO&E so no problems in the crew department. It does make sense if Russia is only supplying limited quantities of volunteers.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Rebels have take Krasniy Partizan, the village. It looks like they're pushing towards Debal'tsevo.

ÐÑ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ ÐовороÑÑии взÑла под контроль поÑёлок КраÑный Партизан
https://www.google.com/maps/place/4...,37.8539734,10z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0?hl=ru

Meanwhile a rebel column sent towards Avdeevka by mistake, was shredded by government artillery.

Колонна Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð±Ñ‹Ð»Ð° разбита артиллерией под Донецком

Heavy fighting is occuring around Mariupol', and it looks like Debal'tsevo was almost surrounded. It appears that Ukraine is losing minor checkpoints and villages.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ ÑоÑтоÑнию на первую половину днÑ...

Meanwhile Poroshenko declares that Ukrainian troops are winning on the defense. You know, despite losing the airport, and other positions.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Порошенко: украинÑкие вооруженные Ñилы победили в Ñтих боÑÑ…

In Roven'kah, Lugansk region, there are clashes between the Lugansk rebels and the cossacks fighting along-side them. The cossacks have for a while been regarded as unrealiable and undisciplined. Given the earlier cleanup among the rebel units, this was probably unavoidable.

Ð’ Ровеньках произошли вооруженные ÑÑ‚Ð¾Ð»ÐºÐ½Ð¾Ð²ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¼ÐµÐ¶Ð´Ñƒ Ñторонниками ЛÐР и казаками

The Dnepr-1 volunteer btln - turned MVD regiment has derailed a train of coal, that they claim the rebels were sending to Russia. But the Ukrainian government says the train was actually meant for a Ukrainian powerplant, and that their action risks leaving it without coal.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Партизаны в атаке

Ukrainian troops have also began a fairly massive attack on Gorlovka, with mass use of artillery.

Бои в аÑропорте Донецка Ñтали прикрытием Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð½Ð°Ñ‡Ð°Ð»Ð° нового Ñтапа войны

A Smerch MLRS in Makeevka. It appears to have been later used against the Donetsk airport.

bmpd - "Смерч" у Ñил ДÐР

Also reports of concentration of rebel armor in Alchevsk and Stakhanov.

Силы Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ñ†ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ñ€Ð¸Ñ€ÑƒÑŽÑ‚ большое количеÑтво бронетехники и артиллерии в Стаханове и ÐлчевÑке

Rebels in the airport. And Ukraine finally admits they've lost it.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - ЗачиÑтка аÑропорта
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêèå âîåííûå ñîîáùèëè, ÷òî óñòóïèëè äîíåöêèé àýðîïîðò ñåïàðàòèñòàì

Some photos from the conflict zone.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Юго-ВоÑток Украины: война без конца...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...

Photo of a Pantsyr-1S column, allegedly in Shahtersk. This isn't the first time claims of the Pantsyr in the conflict zone have were missile fragments found that looked like pieces of a Pantsyr missile.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ÐовоÑти военторга ДÐР: ЗРПК «Панцирь-С1» в ШахтерÑке

Zakharchenko promises to take all of Donetsk region.

Захарченко пообещал захватить вÑÑŽ Донецкую облаÑÑ‚ÑŒ

The Minsk agreements apparently have secret protocols that Russia has declined to publish.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Секретные протоколы 2.0.

The Ukrainian government says that since the Minsk agreements, the rebels have gained over 500 sq. kms of territory.

Силам Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÑƒÐ´Ð°Ð»Ð¾ÑÑŒ взÑÑ‚ÑŒ под контроль 500 кв. км украинÑкой территории

The US has financed the creation of the KOZAK armored car for Ukraine.

bmpd - СШРпрофинанÑировали изготовление прототипа украинÑкого Ð±Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÐ°Ð²Ñ‚Ð¾Ð¼Ð¾Ð±Ð¸Ð»Ñ ÐšOZAK 2014
 

prepping 2015

New Member
So What does everyone think about the rise of the right in Ukraine? Apparently the neo-nazi group "The Azov Battalion" have managed to get their leader into the Ukrainian Parliament, their Deputy leader as the Police Commissioner and the Azov Battalion as a whole has been incorporated as an official part of the Ukrainian army.
 

Muukalainen

New Member
Well for starters the airport was taken after a Smerch missile strike using apparently thermobaric warheads. So there's nothing left to bomb. It's just rubble. Second off there's a serious deficit of aircraft and aircraft munitions. Third off there's a good chance the rebels will shoot something down if there's is some sort of serious attempt to bomb the rebel forces in the airport area. And the Ukrainian airforce has already taken nasty losses in this war. Fourth off they also have a general deficit of artillery and munitions, which keeps their concentrations of artillery relatively low, and prevents them from simply annihilating the rebels. Not to mention the rebels have their own artillery and have been using it for counter-battery fire.

If the Smerch missile was thermobaric, then isn't this evidence of Russia testing out advanced weapon systems? And at the risk of appearing like a conspiracy theory lunatic, I would have to ask if Russia has the cyber-offensive capabilities to commandeer Ukrainian government websites and post the absurdly wrong information that has be seen there. This is only a guess, I don't think this is probable.
 

Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
If the Smerch missile was thermobaric, then isn't this evidence of Russia testing out advanced weapon systems? And at the risk of appearing like a conspiracy theory lunatic, I would have to ask if Russia has the cyber-offensive capabilities to commandeer Ukrainian government websites and post the absurdly wrong information that has be seen there. This is only a guess, I don't think this is probable.
I'm not so sure that thermobaric warheads could be considered an "advanced" weapon system at this stage in the game. Russia has had thermobaric capabilities for quite some time now.
 
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