Ukranian Crisis

[Nick underscore]

It looks like the Debal'tsevo pocket has been closed with the fall of Logvinovo. If this is correct, the pocket is closer south of Svetlodarsk. The LNR offensive is still heading for Artemovsk through Popasnaya. It remains to be seen whether a second pocket forms as a result.

I'll post a long update tomorrow.

Could you also comfirm recent reports of RF air strikes against some UA positions.

Thanks again for the updates

 

[stojo]

It wasn't just the oil exports that made the USSR part of the global economy, and let's not forget that the USSR was at the head of it's own economic bloc, COMECON, with plenty of third world client states. So it was hardly isolated.

Well I might have put it differently. What I meant is that during the 70s both USSR, and its eastern European neighbors became sensitive to the disturbances on the capitalist markets. USSR, mainly trough its massive oil exports, and other countries by actively participating in the global capital market, via MMF etc...

The structure of USSR exports within COMECON changed dramatically during this time as well. If you take a look at the figures, you will see that during the 60's large portion of USSR exports, to Eastern Germany, where finished goods, in the early eighties, they where importing finished goods, and exported mostly oil and gas...

I believe, that by it self reliance on oil, was just one of the factors. I think that the core problem with the centrally planned system was that it was utterly inflexible, incapable of quick response to external pressure from capitalist economies, and more important, unable to switch from industrialization model, relying heavily on cheap labor, and unable to implement industrial innovations (outside the defense industry).

On top of it all, the economic crisis would not have torn USSR-down, by it self -- no matter how harsh it was, without ill conceived political and economic reforms in Gorbachev era. As former CIA head put it: if Andropov was 15 years younger, USSR would probably be still around (poorer, lagging in the development, more autocratic, but it would probably survived.)

So, taken together, there where a lot of factors in USSR dissolution, some of them far more important than, simply, undiversified exports, and oil reliance, but that one was not insignificant either.

 

[Feanor]

Could you also comfirm recent reports of RF air strikes against some UA positions.

Thanks again for the updates

Nope. Ukrainian SNBO can't even confirm them. It looks like it probably never happened.

There are 3 possibilities here, the way I see it. The first is a rebel air strike using their one and only Su-25. The second is a friendly fire incident, and it wouldn't be the first. The third is complete fantasy. Right now the latter seems to be most likely, but we'll see.

Ð’ СÐБО не Ñмогли подтвердить информацию об обÑтреле ДебÐльцево авиацией РФ - ОбщеÑтво - 112.ua

 

[Feanor]

I believe, that by it self reliance on oil, was just one of the factors. I think that the core problem with the centrally planned system was that it was utterly inflexible, incapable of quick response to external pressure from capitalist economies, and more important, unable to switch from industrialization model, relying heavily on cheap labor, and unable to implement industrial innovations (outside the defense industry).

Ultimately what was needed was a deep and fundamental reform of GOSPLAN. And the reforms would have to have been apolitical by nature. Instead the idiots on top started to believe the propaganda coming from the west, and tried some radical and mostly non-sensical reforms along what they thought were western lines.

On top of it all, the economic crisis would not have torn USSR-down, by it self -- no matter how harsh it was, without ill conceived political and economic reforms in Gorbachev era. As former CIA head put it: if Andropov was 15 years younger, USSR would probably be still around (poorer, lagging in the development, more autocratic, but it would probably survived.)

He's right. Minus the poorer part. In absolute terms the USSR would probably have been richer. It would have been poorer in relative terms, as in compared to the west.

So, taken together, there where a lot of factors in USSR dissolution, some of them far more important than, simply, undiversified exports, and oil reliance, but that one was not insignificant either.

It played a tertiary role. The primary cause is the internal power struggle between the party and the government. This was sparked by the economic reforms of Gorbachev, which in turn was a result of consistent economic underperformance. Part of the reason for economic under-performance was the use of oil and gas to make up for inefficiency in other sectors.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Map for Feb 7-9th. Note the pocket is basically closed.

kot_ivanov - КÐÐ*ТРБОЕВЫХ ДЕЙСТВИЙ 7-9 февралÑ

The DNR declares they've shut the Debal'tsevo pocket, Ukraine denies it.

Personal comment, it looks like they really have, and there are reports of Ukrainian counter-attacks along the Artemovsk-Debal'tsevo road. But the biggest factor isn't even whether they have physical control of the road. It's whether they can shut down Ukrainian traffic down the road. If they can, the Debal'tsevo pocket is doomed.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÄÍÐ îáúÿâèëà î çàêðûòèè äåáàëüöåâñêîãî "êîòëà", Êèåâ îïðîâåðãàåò
*ÂÇÃËßÄ / Êîòåë çàêðûò, íî ïðîáëåìû îñòàëèñü
Ополченцы объÑвили о взÑтии Логвиново

The rebels claim that Ukrainian mortar fire has disrupted attempts to evacuate civilians from the Debal'tsevo pocket.

http://vz.ru/society/2015/2/6/728266.html

Rebel forces entering Chernukhino, courtesy of Icorpus, a rebel information support group.

Personal comment: Some of the rebels individual equipment is clearly old Russian surplus, but some of it is shiny and brand new Russian military gear. Hell I recently looked through 2014 photos of a Russian SAM regiment security unit, and they had older and crappier gear then some of the rebels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHtbWXog-d4

Video from Logvinovo, the small village on the highway from Debal'tsevo to Artemovsk. This village was recently taken by the rebels. WARNING Extremely graphic footage.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Видео из Логвиново

Ukrainian volunteer btln Azov says they will counter-attack towards Novoazovsk. This is the small coastal town between Mariupol' and the Russian border. Last time it was that Russian military that secured Novoazovsk for the rebels.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Óêðàèíñêèé áàòàëüîí "Àçîâ" ñîîáùèë î íàñòóïëåíèè íà Íîâîàçîâñê

It appears that rebel casualties are mounting.

Силы Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð½ÐµÑут Ñерьезные потери в живой Ñиле и технике

Another explosion at a chemical plant in Donetsk. Either a Tochka missile or an arty shell, not clear at this point.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / «Öåëåíàïðàâëåííîå óíè÷òîæåíèå èíôðàñòðóêòóðû»
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Áûëî âèäíî îãíåííûé ãðèá": â Äîíåöêå ïðîãðåìåë ìîùíûé âçðûâ

Ukrainian SNBO does not confirm reports of Russian air strikes.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ОблачноÑÑ‚ÑŒ, Ñнег, меÑтами бомбардировки...

Photos from the combat zone.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ДебальцевÑкий "карман"...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Лики гражданÑкой войны...
http://u-96.livejournal.com/4118497.html
http://u-96.livejournal.com/4117620.html


Nasty video of Ukrainian volunteer btlns allegedly using ambulances with the red cross to transport ammo.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPAva0U2Z1U

A Russian military captain recognized fighting in Ukraine. He's from the 11th Para-Assault Bde.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - без палева...

The Pantsyr-S in Lugansk. This time for real.

bmpd - Зенитный ракетно-пушечный ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð»ÐµÐºÑ "Панцирь-С" в ЛуганÑке

Nona-K guns in rebel hands. Clearly a Russian donation.

bmpd - Ð‘Ð°Ñ‚Ð°Ñ€ÐµÑ Ð¾Ñ€ÑƒÐ´Ð¸Ð¹ "Ðона-К" у Ñил ДÐÐ*

Photos of the D-20 artillery piece in government and rebel hands.

militarizm: 152-мм гаубица Д-20 в войне на ДонбаÑÑе

6 Streit Cougar armored cars handed over to volunteer btln Azov, these equipped with RCWS Sarmat weapon stations. It includes an NSVT machinegun, and two RK-3 ATGMs.

bmpd - Передача бронетехники нового производÑтва Ñилам МВД Украины
*ÂÇÃËßÄ / ÌÂÄ Óêðàèíû: Áàòàëüîí «Àçîâ» ïîëó÷èë ñïîñîáíûå ïîðàæàòü òàíêè è âåðòîëåòû áðîíåâèêè
УкраинÑкие Ñиловики получили новые бронемашины Ñ Ð±Ð¾ÐµÐ²Ñ‹Ð¼ модулем "Сармат"

The RPO Lynx. It's a thermobaric rocket launcher that preceded the RPO-A.

bmpd - Ð*ПО "Ð*Ñ‹ÑÑŒ" в украинÑкой армии

Ukrainian military captured a rebel T-72B.

УкраинÑкие военные захватили танк Т-72Б у Ñил ополчениÑ

The OSCE says Russia has suggested a DMZ in eastern Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/world/10feb2015/donbass.html

Poland says the EU has decided against another round of sanctions against Russia, on request from Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÅÑ îòëîæèë ââåäåíèå íîâûõ ñàíêöèé ïðîòèâ ÐÔ ïî ïðîñüáå Óêðàèíû, ñîîáùèë ãëàâà ÌÈÄà Ïîëüøè

Merkel' supposedly brought Obama a new peace plan on Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìåðêåëü è Îáàìà îáñóäèëè ñèòóàöèþ íà Óêðàèíå

Ukraine continues to falsify their public releases, publishing footage of Russian military training, and a T-72B photo from the Georgian War, claiming it as evidence of Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine.

УкраинÑкие СМИ выдают кадры роÑÑийÑких учений за факты учаÑÑ‚Ð¸Ñ Ð² конÑе на воÑтоке Ñтраны

The LNR says they want peacekeepers to be Russia or Belorussia.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ожидаемое

Poroshenko shows passports of alleged Russian military personnel in Ukraine. Note that so far Ukraine has ignored requests from Russia to provide copes of the passports.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Порошенко в Мюнхене показал паÑпорта "заблудившихÑÑ" военных из Ð*оÑÑии

Obama and Merkel are meeting in Washington, allegedly to discuss weapon supplies to Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Âàøèíãòîíå ïðîéäåò âñòðå÷à Îáàìû ñ Ìåðêåëü, ïîñëå êîòîðîé ðåøèòñÿ, áóäóò ëè ÑØÀ âîîðóæàòü Êèåâ

Russian humanitarian aid to the rebel provinces continues.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: 13-é ðîññèéñêèé ãóìêîíâîé ïåðåñåê ãðàíèöó è ðàçäåëèëñÿ íà äâå êîëîííû

The Ukrainian grivna falls below 26 per dollar.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Ð“Ñ€Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ñ ÑƒÐ¿Ð°Ð»Ð° ниже 26 за доллар

 

[Feanor]

Opinion Post

This is what I have personally managed to figure out from some unconfirmed or partially confirmed info. I'm not going to post sources, there's too many, and I can't recall them all anyway. This is my opinion, my analysis.

It seems that the Debal'tsevo pocket is closed. Despite government counter-attacks, it's probably going to stay closed. However the commonly cited number of 6-8-10 thousand Ukrainian troops in it are wrong. The numbers are more like 2-3 thousand. The rest have left the pocket, shortly before it closed, and it was even reported on by a few newspapers. This means they're learning. However it's still a significant victory, and it most importantly relieves pressure from Gorlovka.

The rebels have also crossed the river, just north of Svetlodarsk, and the LNR offensive towards Artemovsk is still continuing, but very slowly. Which means that we may see a second pocket in Svetlodarsk, or a frontal rebel offensive towards Artemovsk, which will be the next government strong point. The fall of Debal'tsevo will free up considerable rebel resources, which will open up potential for an offensive elsewhere.

Government troops are pushing towards Novoazovsk, but the offensive there seems to be a failure so far. There aren't enough resources committed. That having been said, the rebels main forces are far from the area, and there is no good major highway to get reinforcements down there. It's entirely possible that Russia will step in, if Novoazovsk becomes seriously threatened by government forces, but there's not guarantees at this point. It seems to be an attempt to make gains where the rebels are weak, while they're distracted elsewhere.

Overall the rebel forces seem concentrated in the area between Pervomaysk, and the southern outskirts of Donetsk. The rest of the front has very little rebel presence. Government troops are still trying to push towards Donetsk, though honestly I don't see that being successful. The terrain is too complex and too well defended. With the fall of Debal'tsevo, I wouldn't be surprised to see rebel forces relocated southward to seize Volnovakha or counter a government push on Novoazovsk.

The latest map from kot-ivanov.

kot_ivanov - КÐРТРБОЕВЫХ ДЕЙСТВИЙ 07-10 фе²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ

 

[gazzzwp]

Honestly some of the opinions I hear voiced here terrify me. How do you think that kind of move would develop? Would it make Europe a safer place?

It's a risk but a risk that NATO may well have to take. Standing up to the bear may well be the only way to get him to back down.

The fire is in his back yard remember; a situation that NATO could use to resolve the crisis.

 

[2007yellow430]

An interesting question is what will Russia do if we do arm the Ukraine?

One position paper:

http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/09/how-not-to-save-ukraine-arming-kiev-is-a-bad-idea/

 

[Nick underscore]

General ceasefire has been agreed by all parties for Feb 15th.

1. Heavy weapons pulled out: Beginning on 17 February and completed in two weeks
2. All prisoners released; amnesty for those involved in fighting
3. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. Disarmament of all illegal groups
4. Ukraine to allow resumption of normal life in rebel areas, by lifting restrictions
5. Constitutional reform to enable decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of year
6. Ukraine control of border with Russia to be completed by the end of year

Good news, but not holding my breath. Some of the above I can't envision being implemented.

 

[stojo]

General ceasefire has been agreed by all parties for Feb 15th.

1. Heavy weapons pulled out: Beginning on 17 February and completed in two weeks
2. All prisoners released; amnesty for those involved in fighting
3. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. Disarmament of all illegal groups
4. Ukraine to allow resumption of normal life in rebel areas, by lifting restrictions
5. Constitutional reform to enable decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of year
6. Ukraine control of border with Russia to be completed by the end of year

Good news, but not holding my breath. Some of the above I can't envision being implemented.

Its good, but I would still like to see how it works in Debalcevo. I can't imagine that the rebels will just stop short of taking it. Especially in light of the effort they made. Knowing how it works, there will be many of them who will go around yelling "Treason!".

I think that the pressure around Debalcevo was crucial on getting Poroshenko to the negotiating table. But, the total defeat of the Ukr. army there doesn't play well, even for Russians.

In light of the fact of the seage of the Ministry buildings in Kiev, one might imagine, how tough would be for Poroshenko to negotiate peace plan, after another total defeat, without making it look like a treason in the eyes of many, and who would Russians talk to, if there was another cue.

 

[KiwiRob]

I see no mention of the status of Crimea, I guess it will be quietly recognised as Russian territory?

 

[Nick underscore]

I see no mention of the status of Crimea, I guess it will be quietly recognised as Russian territory?

Maybe you're conflating this intentionally.

Why would Crimea be apart of the DNR and LNR ceasefire?

 

[John Fedup]

Maybe you're conflating this intentionally.

Why would Crimea be apart of the DNR and LNR ceasefire?

Forgive my ignorance, but explain your comment to KiwiRob. Do you consider the Crimea takeover to be acceptable or is it just a fact that the West can't do anything about?

 

[Nick underscore]

Forgive my ignorance, but explain your comment to KiwiRob. Do you consider the Crimea takeover to be acceptable or is it just a fact that the West can't do anything about?

They are two seperate issues and diplomatically are treated differently. To solve a destabilising siutation with LNR and DNR (which without question, is supported by the RF troops and equipment) would never reach any sort resolution with the Crimean issue on the table. The statement made by KiwiRob, seems to indicate that this peace plan with LNR and DNR rebels validates the Crimean move. The West and Ukriane will not see it this way.

Let's not forget, much of the economic sanctions already in place, are tied to the Crimean annexation and won't be lifted anytime some. Some sanction lifting will be considered, but core aspects via US policy will stay

Personally, I do NOT accept the current Crimean situation, but I also am a realist and I have some very close Ukrainian friends here in London. Neither the Ukraine Govt, EU, US et al can change this Crimean situation through the use of force.

 

[Feanor]

Forgive my ignorance, but explain your comment to KiwiRob. Do you consider the Crimea takeover to be acceptable or is it just a fact that the West can't do anything about?

I'm not KiwiRob, but I'll answer. I think the annexation of Crimea would be acceptable if a referendum were conducted with international observers present. Of course no western country will consent to send observers to a referendum of that sort, and instead they will simply label it as illegitimate in advance. Which creates certain problems.

Let's not forget, much of the economic sanctions already in place, are tied to the Crimean annexation and won't be lifted anytime some. Some sanction lifting will be considered, but core aspects via US policy will stay

Personally, I do NOT accept the current Crimean situation, but I also am a realist and I have some very close Ukrainian friends here in London. Neither the Ukraine Govt, EU, US et al can change this Crimean situation through the use of force.

Yes but the problem isn't what they're tied to, it's what the West offered to Russia in exchange for the current peace treaty which seems to be quite favorable to the west and Ukraine. So while passing the sanctions may have been a response to Crimea, lifting them can be a response to the peace treaty in the east.

I see no mention of the status of Crimea, I guess it will be quietly recognised as Russian territory?

I think it will get quietly ignored. I don't see recognition any time soon. I'm not sure what price Russia would have to pay for actual recognition but it will have to be high.

 

[Nick underscore]

it's what the West offered to Russia in exchange for the current peace treaty which seems to be quite favorable to the west and Ukraine. So while passing the sanctions may have been a response to Crimea, lifting them can be a response to the peace treaty in the east.

As I mentioned - some sanctions will be lifted. Some though, advocated and implemented through the U.S., have not be tied to the ceasefire. Time will tell

What aspects of this peace treaty do you see as quite favourable to both the West and Ukraine? No timetable for foreign force withdrawal seems to be opposite IMV.

 

[Farbanks]

As I mentioned - some sanctions will be lifted. Some though, advocated and implemented through the U.S., have not be tied to the ceasefire. Time will tell

What aspects of this peace treaty do you see as quite favourable to both the West and Ukraine? No timetable for foreign force withdrawal seems to be opposite IMV.

Lack of timetable for withdrawal of force is really disturbing. There is saying in former Czechoslovakia, that, freely translated says: Base value of temporarity for Russians is 1 Forever.

There is also no mention of any observers to ensure/confirm realization of mentioned points. I have to wonder, if this is not another "time-buying" ceasefire.

 

[Nick underscore]

Interesting article and some claims therein from the respected the Economist regarding theories behind recent Russian aggression in Ukraine and beyond - What Russia wants: From cold war to hot war | The Economist

Goes into some brief speculation w.r.t transpired events on the ground.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Interesting article and some claims therein from the respected the Economist regarding theories behind recent Russian aggression in Ukraine and beyond - What Russia wants: From cold war to hot war | The Economist

Goes into some brief speculation w.r.t transpired events on the ground.

Fairly correct explanation of how we got here. Putin is arguably more dangerous than the Soviets because he's effectively a new Tsar with absolute power. And he thinks no one will stand up to him - ever. Which is very dangerous thinking.

 

[BlueRose]

I'm certainly glad and support the DPR and LPR for taking up arms against the UA, and entities therein. They could have taken much more if they wanted to in the past month, it's obvious that the UA is vastly loosing it's fighting ability, and ability to conduct basic tactical strategy. Conscripts and Recruits continue to flee to Russia to avoid the draft, and now regular citizens in Ukraine are further realizing the situation.

To set some finer points in motion:
UA personal(Regular formations) threatening to execute civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2YmnKNTw8w

Alexandr Zakharchenko freely handing over young POW'S back to there mothers and personally meeting with family. He's done this on several occasions, even older ones who have wife and kids.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d50-nAq_tPo


Western supplied munitions and rifles found at the New Terminal, along with other obscure little things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbGCL0cfBdU

M109A1 Artillery shells found in Gorlvoka.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwlMtJA0bJQ