Ukranian Crisis

[Volkodav]

I see that Putin is claiming that the Ukrainian Army is actually a NATO sponsored "foreign legion" specifically tasked to contain Russia, the response from NATO being that the only foreign forces in the Ukraine are Russian (volunteers) fighting with, or possibly making up much of, the rebel forces.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

So What does everyone think about the rise of the right in Ukraine?

"Rise"? Svoboda had more members in the Ukrainian Parliament under Yanukovych. They actually lost seats in the recent election.

Get your facts right, mate.

 

[Nick underscore]

Current rebel offensive have had some territorial gains.. +500km2 since Minsk agreement I beleive. RF understands the economy will contract significantly this year and possibly consider this supportive adventure as a worthwhile 'distraction' for domestic consumption.

Western relations I cannot see improving this year unfortunately. The Mistral announcement next month I think will only cause more angst.

Comically, Putin states the UA has NATO foreign legions imbedded.. I'm sure this was tongue in cheek.
Ukraine rebels move to encircle government troops in new advance | Reuters

More sanctions will follow, IMV

 

[Feanor]

"Rise"? Svoboda had more members in the Ukrainian Parliament under Yanukovych. They actually lost seats in the recent election.

Get your facts right, mate.

But they didn't have the SBU chief position, or the MVD ministerial seat, or the MoD seat for that matter. And they certainly have considerably greater impact on national policy making. So it's not so much a rise of the right in terms of attitudes or popularity, as it is a rise in their immediate political power.

I see that Putin is claiming that the Ukrainian Army is actually a NATO sponsored "foreign legion" specifically tasked to contain Russia, the response from NATO being that the only foreign forces in the Ukraine are Russian (volunteers) fighting with, or possibly making up much of, the rebel forces.

Clearly they're not the ONLY foreign forces. Ukraine admits that volunteers from different countries are fighting in Ukraine. And there was the incident recently near Mariupol' where when a Ukrainian soldier was filmed, he said (in english) "Get the camera out of my face" clearly not wanting to be caught on film. Estimates are that ~100 ex-Gerogian military personnel are fighting in Ukraine. And I know there are Ukrainian ex-pats coming home from the far-abroad as well, to participate. I wouldn't be surprised if there were volunteers from Poland and the Baltics, possibly a few other places.

More sanctions will follow, IMV

It seems that Putin is only willing to deal on terms that the Ukrainian government and the west are not willing to deal on. And the west is happy to fight Putin until the last Ukrainian.

 

[prepping 2015]

"Rise"? Svoboda had more members in the Ukrainian Parliament under Yanukovych. They actually lost seats in the recent election.

Get your facts right, mate.

Loss of seats does not equate to loss of power, their rise into positions of authority shows that extremist views such as theirs are becoming more and more acceptable in Ukranian politics. And holding positions such as these will give them far more actual influence than a few parliamentary seats.:duel

 

[Muukalainen]

I'm not so sure that thermobaric warheads could be considered an "advanced" weapon system at this stage in the game. Russia has had thermobaric capabilities for quite some time now.

I see. By "advanced," I guess I meant more like "untested." So, I have to ask if this specific variant has been tested before? Also, if Russia is testing out weapon systems, then what are they testing them for? My only guess is, because of the nature of the weapons supposedly seen, that is for war against the US. Also, with the Arctic expansion of the Russian military, it would seem that either Russia is planning a war or at least preparing for one. However, I acknowledge that this hypothesis is based on circumstantial evidence and is only one of many possible reasons; but it is one of the more frightening of them.

 

[Bonza]

I see. By "advanced," I guess I meant more like "untested." So, I have to ask if this specific variant has been tested before? Also, if Russia is testing out weapon systems, then what are they testing them for? My only guess is, because of the nature of the weapons supposedly seen, that is for war against the US. Also, with the Arctic expansion of the Russian military, it would seem that either Russia is planning a war or at least preparing for one. However, I acknowledge that this hypothesis is based on circumstantial evidence and is only one of many possible reasons; but it is one of the more frightening of them.

As far as I know, thermobaric warheads have been in use since the 1980s, possibly earlier. I know the RPO-A shoulder fired rocket launcher was a product of the 80s, along with the TOS-1 self propelled MLRS. The Smerch has been around since the 80s too. Feanor would probably be able to give you more details as he's got his head around the subject matter far more than myself. As for what they're using them for, again I don't think it's testing so much as just using them for the capability they afford. In any case I hope this info helps.

 

[Feanor]

As far as I know, thermobaric warheads have been in use since the 1980s, possibly earlier. I know the RPO-A shoulder fired rocket launcher was a product of the 80s, along with the TOS-1 self propelled MLRS. The Smerch has been around since the 80s too. Feanor would probably be able to give you more details as he's got his head around the subject matter far more than myself. As for what they're using them for, again I don't think it's testing so much as just using them for the capability they afford. In any case I hope this info helps.

Both the TOS-1 and RPO were tested in Afghanistan. The Smerch was developed in the 70s, entered service in the early 80s. The thermobaric warhead came a little later, but still 80s. I haven't found a good history of the BM-30 development, but it's certainly not brand new or untested. Though I wonder if the shown BM-30 in Donbass was a cover for the testing of a potential new heavy MLRS, the Tornado-S for example. Pure speculation to be honest.

Anyways, you're basically spot on. This is hardly testing.

 

[Muukalainen]

Both the TOS-1 and RPO were tested in Afghanistan. The Smerch was developed in the 70s, entered service in the early 80s. The thermobaric warhead came a little later, but still 80s. I haven't found a good history of the BM-30 development, but it's certainly not brand new or untested. Though I wonder if the shown BM-30 in Donbass was a cover for the testing of a potential new heavy MLRS, the Tornado-S for example. Pure speculation to be honest.

Anyways, you're basically spot on. This is hardly testing.

I know little about Russian military technology, so thank you both Feanor and Bonza for the info.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Ukrainian troops have retreated 1.5kms from the airport.

УкраинÑкие военные отошли от донецкого аÑропорта на 1,5 км

Two Ukrainian chekpoints near the village Luganskiy have fallen to the rebels.

Два блокпоÑта Ñил ÐТО под Дебальцево разбиты, много погибших

Uglegorsk has fallen, with large Ukrainian casualties, but maybe not for long. There are reports that Ukraine has retaken it.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - УглегорÑк. Захарченко учаÑтвует в операции.
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - УглегорÑк

A trolleybus in Donetsk has been hit by artillery. at least two dead.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Äîíåöêå ïîä îáñòðåë ïîïàëè òðîëëåéáóñ è çäàíèÿ èíôðàñòðóêòóðû: åñòü æåðòâû

The Mayor of Gorlovka says that 107 have died in the town from Ukrainian artillery fire.

ÐœÑÑ€ Горловки Ñообщил о 107 погибших мирных жителÑÑ…

Tor missile systems may have been used in Ukraine. Fragments of the missile appear to have been found.

Ðа воÑтоке Украины впервые был применен ракетный ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð»ÐµÐºÑ Ð¢ÐžÐ 

A Ukrainian mortar battery, Battery 42, has been requesting aid for two days, but are basically left abandoned.

Под Дебальцево 42 Ð±Ð°Ñ‚Ð°Ñ€ÐµÑ Ð’Ð¡Ð£ двое Ñуток проÑит помощи

Photos of Ukrainian military, near Debal'tsevo.

u-96.livejournal.com/4075367.html#cutid1

The rebel leader, Zakharchenko, called on Ukrainian troops surrounded in Debal'tsevo to surrender. Except they may not really be surrounded. It's messy.

 ÂÇÃËßÄ / Çàõàð÷åíêî ïðèçâàë îêðóæåííûõ â Äåáàëüöåâî ñèëîâèêîâ ñäàòü îðóæèå
Ополченцам не удалоÑÑŒ взÑÑ‚ÑŒ в кольцо украинÑких Ñиловиков в районе Дебальцево
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Ñäàâàéòåñü è âû áóäåòå æèòü. ß îáåùàþ": Çàõàð÷åíêî îáðàòèëñÿ ê óêðàèíñêèì âîåííûì, êîòîðûå ÿêîáû ïîïàëè â êîòåë

2S7 artillery pieces have been noted in Makeevka. An entire unit of them with a command vehicle.

Очевидцами в Макеевке были замечены неÑколько Ñамоходных артиллерийÑких уÑтановок «Пион»
bmpd - Силы ДÐР тоже обзавелиÑÑŒ "Пионами"

More Russian weapons in Lugansk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - а в Ñто Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð² ЛуганÑке, продолжает работать военторг

The rebels have two Su-25s that they've allegedly removed from a museum, and restored to working order. Probably with Russian help.

Ðа вооружение Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð´Ð²Ð° штурмовика Су-25 из музейной ÑкÑпозиции

A giant rebel troop column in Makeevka.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ЕÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ñ‚Ð°ÐºÐ°Ñ Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ‡ÐºÐ° зрениÑ...

4 new infantry brigades are being formed in Ukraine. They will have few or no armored vehicles, instead using trucks and towed arty.

eagle-rost.livejournal.com/341573.html

The Minsk negotiations have failed.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïåðåãîâîðû ïî óðåãóëèðîâàíèþ êîíôëèêòà íà Äîíáàññå ïðîâàëèëèñü

The Ukrainian MoD has tried to disband btln Aydar. But the soldiers are besieging the MoD building and demanding the decision gets reversed. Just a reminder, soldier from this unit have racked up a tremendous combined criminal record of armed robbery, kidnapping, and assault charges. They've also repeatedly refused orders on the front line.

Бойцы раÑформированного «Ðйдара» штурмуют миниÑтерÑтво обороны Украины
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Íà Óêðàèíå ñîîáùèëè î ðàñôîðìèðîâàíèè áàòàëüîíà "Àéäà åãî ïðåäñòàâèòåëè ýòî îòðèöàþò

Ukraine might be getting ready to order a number of BMP-64s. A T-64 based IFV.

Украина может заказать около 50 БМП на базе шаÑÑи танка Т-64

And the next round of mobilization in Ukraine has begun.

Первые мобилизованные отправилиÑÑŒ из Киева на военные полигоны

The NATO general secretary has refused to call the DNR and LNR terrorist organizations, but has called on Russia to stop supporting them.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãåíñåê ÍÀÒÎ îòêàçàëñÿ ïðèçíàòü ñåïàðàòèñòîâ Äîíáàññà òåððîðèñòàìè, íî âíîâü ïðèçâàë Ðîññèþ èõ íå ïîääåðæèâàòü

The number of refugees in Rostov region is growing again.

 ÂÇÃËßÄ / «Ìû èõ ðàññìàòðèâàåì êàê ñâîèõ»

Meanwhile Greece continues to fight against the sanctions in the EU. And it's not alone. There's also Hungary, and the Czech Republic, and strangely Austria.

 ÂÇÃËßÄ / Åâðîñîþç ïûòàåòñÿ ñëîìèòü ñîïðîòèâëåíèå Ãðåöèè, ïîääåðæèâàþùåé Ðîññèþ
 ÂÇÃËßÄ / Ïðåìüåð Âåíãðèè çàÿâèë î ïðîòèâîðå÷èè ñàíêöèé â îòíîøåíèè Ðîññèè èíòåðåñàì Áóäàïåøòà

However the EU is going to extend sanctions for another 9 months.

newsru.com/world/28jan2015/sankcii.html

Meanwhile Putin stated that Russia will relax immigration laws to make it easier for Ukrainians to draft dodge in Russia. However the real reason is probably to make life easier for the refugees.

newsru.com/russia/28jan2015/fmsukrputin.html

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A map of the Debal'tsevo almost cauldron. Dark colors are elevation, brighter colors are flat ground. The green is presumably forest.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Карта...

Ukrainian soldiers in Debal'tsevo have accused their command of betrayal. It should be noted that these sorts of accusations are almost routine in this conflict,=.

Ð’ Дебальцево украинÑкие Ñиловики обвинÑÑŽÑ‚ командование в предательÑтве

It appears the rebels still hold Uglegorsk.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ВеÑти Ñ Ñтой Ñтороны...
http://u-96.livejournal.com/4095334.html

Warzone photo and video. I'm surprised to see the BTS-5. I think it's the first time they've taken part in this war.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - новоÑти военторга
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ВСУ ÐТОшит...
Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Дедлайн "Дебальцево"...

The rebels intend to declare a mobilization, and initially hope for enough volunteers. They hope to raise their total force strength to 100 000. Which is a little high, for a region so small. Though I guess not completely impossible. It may be a cover for more Russian volunteers, or it may mean they intend to mobilize their population for real, using conscription. It may even be little more then elaborate trolling.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1566162.html

Putin suggests that they will relax laws about Ukrainians staying in Russia without visas, to make draft dodging easier.

twower.livejournal.com/1559470.html

Meanwhile there are problems with attempts to mobilize youth from Kramatorsk, with the mothers refusing to let their sons serve.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / Ìàòåðè ïðèçûâíèêîâ Êðàìàòîðñêà íàçâàëè ñåáÿ ðóññêèìè è ïîñëàëè âîåíêîìà â ÑØÀ

A Russian NGO, Soldiers Mothers, reports that unit commanders are pressuring and cajoling conscripts into signing contracts before being put on "exericses" near Rostov. It's unlikely that they're being forced to go to Ukraine, much likelier that they want all contract personnel for PR reasons should Russia need to intervene.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Îäíèõ óãîâàðèâàþò, äðóãèì - óãðîæàþò": "Ñîëäàòñêèå ìàòåðè" óçíàëè îá îòïðàâêå êîíòðàêòíèêîâ ïîä Ðîñòîâ

Russia's Minekonomrazvitiya now projects a 3% GDP drop for 2015. This is a steep worsening of predictions.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíýêîíîìðàçâèòèÿ ðåçêî óõóäøèëî ïðîãíîç íà 2015 ãîä

A former Russian Marine tells his story, about fighting for the rebels, and storming the airport. He was captured on camera earlier, and noted due to his Naval Infantry patch (albeit an old one, from parade uniforms). He mentions that the Russian military is there but they're working quietly without any attention.

newsru.com/russia/28jan2015/donbass.html

There are also reports that tanks from Leningrad Region are being shipped to Rostov region, supposedly to the rebels in Ukraine.

newsru.com/russia/26jan2015/tankiputin.html

 

[Waylander]

One would have thought that a popular uprising with a broad base of support in the population living under constant threat of extermination by their western opressors should have no problem to swell it's ranks with enthusiastic volunteers...

A forced conscription may have a different effect, though.

The Ukrainians look to be hard pressed over most of the frontline and if the big pocket is nearly closed it doesn't bode well for their future capacity to stop the seperatists from gaining even more ground.

 

[Feanor]

One would have thought that a popular uprising with a broad base of support in the population living under constant threat of extermination by their western opressors should have no problem to swell it's ranks with enthusiastic volunteers...

Do I detect a faint hint of sarcasm?

A forced conscription may have a different effect, though.

They apparently released an updated statement saying it would be a voluntary mobilization.

The Ukrainians look to be hard pressed over most of the frontline and if the big pocket is nearly closed it doesn't bode well for their future capacity to stop the seperatists from gaining even more ground.

It seems that they can't close the pocket as is. The narrow point at the back of it, Svetlodarsk, is in a low area, on a river. So they're instead pushing at Uglegorsk and Hill 309.7, but you'll note that there is a large open flat area between those two dominating terrain features. The road from Debal'tsevo to Svetlodarsk runs through there. Positive control of that road would be difficult to establish. Which means the pocket won't really be closed.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Карта...

Which is why the LNR is pushing another offensive north of Svetlodarsk entirely, through Popasnaya, towards Artemovsk. This would create a bigger pocket, dodge the problem of trying to hold the difficult positions at Svetlodarsk against government attempts to deblock the pocket, and give the Ukrainian military too many other things to worry about, to effectively support or rescue the forces left at Debal'tsevo.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivanov/71733898/38413/38413_original.jpg

Maps linked for clarification.

If they succeed, Gorlovka will be essentially safe from government offensives, the front will not only move forward but actually shorten, making it easier for them, given their limited manpower, and of course it will be a bad indicator of Ukraine's ability to wage this war.

 

[Nick underscore]

Cynically, this 100k number is pure 'pretext' for more RF forces moving in, for next phase of this offensive.

I'm skeptical that the rebels (both LNR & DNR) could/ will recruit more than 7-15k, considering efforts to date and numbers published previously throughout this conflict.

Note; the 3% projected downturn (GDP) on the Russian economy, is approx half the figure that is 'conservatively' expected (at this point). Both SWF's will be tapped heavily to prop up parts of the corporate sector (particulary Banking & finance) over the next 9-12months for now. These reserves may not prove enough for 2015/16..

Feanor - those 3 UA infantry Bgdes mentioned previously, are they national gaurd or regular do you know?

 

[Spacearrow99]

Cynically, this 100k number is pure 'pretext' for more RF forces moving in, for next phase of this offensive.

I'm skeptical that the rebels (both LNR & DNR) could/ will recruit more than 7-15k, considering efforts to date and numbers published previously throughout this conflict.

Note; the 3% projected downturn (GDP) on the Russian economy, is approx half the figure that is 'conservatively' expected (at this point). Both SWF's will be tapped heavily to prop up parts of the corporate sector (particulary Banking & finance) over the next 9-12months for now. These reserves may not prove enough for 2015/16..

Feanor - those 3 UA infantry Bgdes mentioned previously, are they national gaurd or regular do you know?

Russia is a solvent country; it has very little public debt. I don't buy into any Western Russian economic forecasts. Putin hides much information about the Russian economy, so he and his buddies can steal money.

 

[2007yellow430]

Just saw where some Tu95s were in the British Canal. the Brits are upset. It seems to be escalating.

BBC News - Russian military planes 'disrupted UK aviation'

 

[alexkvaskov]

Just saw where some Tu95s were in the British Canal. the Brits are upset. It seems to be escalating.

BBC News - Russian military planes 'disrupted UK aviation'

Nothing's escalating. Such flights have been routine for a few years now, irrespective of whether Russia-West relations are tense or relatively smooth. They serve an image booster function for the Russian military mostly for domestic consumption. Not to mention the actual, hard military value of a pair of bombers with no fighter, naval or other escort is quite low.

 

[Feanor]

I'm skeptical that the rebels (both LNR & DNR) could/ will recruit more than 7-15k, considering efforts to date and numbers published previously throughout this conflict.

They're already taking volunteers. How is this mobilization different from what they're already doing? More posters? More flags? I think they will recruit 0 more troops then they would've gotten anyways. I think you're spot on when you say that it's cover for Russian volunteers and possibly even regular military. However, more importantly, it's a message to Ukraine.

Note; the 3% projected downturn (GDP) on the Russian economy, is approx half the figure that is 'conservatively' expected (at this point). Both SWF's will be tapped heavily to prop up parts of the corporate sector (particulary Banking & finance) over the next 9-12months for now. These reserves may not prove enough for 2015/16..

It looks bad. No joke.

Feanor - those 3 UA infantry Bgdes mentioned previously, are they national gaurd or regular do you know?

Regular military from what I heard.

EDIT: Well this is amusing. Although not serious. Russian spider tanks invading Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KurEVyACKpg#t=13

 

[Nick underscore]

Russia is a solvent country; it has very little public debt. I don't buy into any Western Russian economic forecasts. Putin hides much information about the Russian economy, so he and his buddies can steal money.

Its corporate debt as I mentioned, that is the problem and the requisite financing attached. Nobody mentioned Russia is insolvent..

Just for your guide as you don't seem to be aware - Public debt (% GDP) is relatively low (historically) in Russia as it defaulted in 98', same as Argentina in 01'.

I don't need western economic forecasts to see what is happening. I work in the industry. Time will tell

 

[Nick underscore]

They're already taking volunteers. How is this mobilization different from what they're already doing? More posters? More flags? I think they will recruit 0 more troops then they would've gotten anyways. I think you're spot on when you say that it's cover for Russian volunteers and possibly even regular military. However, more importantly, it's a message to Ukraine.

Regular military from what I heard.

cheers for response.

I wish I had an updated unit disposition for UA currently. Ones I have seen don't provide enough clarity.