Ukranian Crisis

[swerve]

I already know the information you stated above.The real production costs of the Western Siberian oilfields is key to this situation. About 90 % of Russia's economic problems is due to the low price of crude oil. China and India will keep making deals with defaulting Russia corporations. Russia has many cards before it will face economic collapse.

Most of Russia's trade is not with China & India. The EU takes about half of Russia's exports, & a much higher proportion of its oil & gas. Oil & gas can't suddenly be diverted, especially not gas. There are physical limits to transport routes.

Low oil prices are a major factor, but nowhere near 90%. If the economy was better-run it could weather a temporary drop in oil prices. It was heading for trouble even before the events of the past year.

A sensible government wouldn't pick fights with its biggest trading partners just as its economic options were running out - & that's what Putin did, & the situation Russia was in, before the oil price slumped so low.

BTW, Russian firms have huge assets abroad, mostly in Europe - EU countries & Switzerland mostly, I think. Many of them prefer to keep their cash outside Russia, probably because they don't trust Putin & his mates, & they have also invested in foreign firms. The total of such assets is much greater than foreign investments in Russia. Defaults on debts would lead to any such assets owned by defaulting firms being seized. If the Russian state started sequestering foreign assets in Russia, or defaulted on debts - well, a lot of Russian assets abroad are owned by the Russian state. It's put foreign currency reserves into foreign investments.

 

[Spacearrow99]

Most of Russia's trade is not with China & India. The EU takes about half of Russia's exports, & a much higher proportion of its oil & gas. Oil & gas can't suddenly be diverted, especially not gas. There are physical limits to transport routes.

Low oil prices are a major factor, but nowhere near 90%. If the economy was better-run it could weather a temporary drop in oil prices. It was heading for trouble even before the events of the past year.

A sensible government wouldn't pick fights with its biggest trading partners just as its economic options were running out - & that's what Putin did, & the situation Russia was in, before the oil price slumped so low.

BTW, Russian firms have huge assets abroad, mostly in Europe - EU countries & Switzerland mostly, I think. Many of them prefer to keep their cash outside Russia, probably because they don't trust Putin & his mates, & they have also invested in foreign firms. The total of such assets is much greater than foreign investments in Russia. Defaults on debts would lead to any such assets owned by defaulting firms being seized. If the Russian state started sequestering foreign assets in Russia, or defaulted on debts - well, a lot of Russian assets abroad are owned by the Russian state. It's put foreign currency reserves into foreign investments.

I written about Russia diversifying its export customers. Asia is the best for the Russian economy in the future. I did not mention oil and gas trade with Europe for a good reason. Europe cannot replace Russian oil and gas in the short term and its highly debatable Europe can replace Russian petroleum products in the long term. The recession in Russia is due mostly to the low oil price. If oil was $100 a barrel Russia wouldn't be in recession. Plus, many Europeans economies were not doing well before the drop in oil. that had to do with a slump in Russia's economy. Russian firms have been moving much of their assets back into Russia in the last year.

 

[Feanor]

I written about Russia diversifying its export customers. Asia is the best for the Russian economy in the future. I did not mention oil and gas trade with Europe for a good reason. Europe cannot replace Russian oil and gas in the short term and its highly debatable Europe can replace Russian petroleum products in the long term. The recession in Russia is due mostly to the low oil price. If oil was $100 a barrel Russia wouldn't be in recession. Plus, many Europeans economies were not doing well before the drop in oil. that had to do with a slump in Russia's economy. Russian firms have been moving much of their assets back into Russia in the last year.

There are lots of reasons for Russia's recession. Not the least of which seems to be aggressive economic acts by the west intended to send a message. I wouldn't under-estimate the effect of losses from the EU sanctions. Look at Russia, prices are rising while the economy is going into a recession. It's no accident they're simultaneously trying to find new economic partners everywhere. They're desperate, and can't back down.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Rebels clearing Uglegorsk. As of now the rebels hold it, and it seems the rebels have organized a mass evacuation of civilians. The exodus of civilians proceeded in both directions of the front, but the rebes provided buses to move them out. Note that the rebels look a lot like Russian military personnel. They're fairly obviously not, but they're modeled on them. They're quite well equipped, and seem to be fairly coordinated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g05kXeULis&feature=youtu.be
КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Беженцы из УглегорÑка

Evacuation of civilians from the front.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - ДебальцевÑкий "карман"...

A Ukrainian Tu-143 shot down.

bmpd - Ð’ ДонбаÑÑе Ñбит украинÑкий БЛРТу-143

Ukrainian army positions near Debal'tsevo. From the looks of it, they're former positions. They're empty and filled with wrecked vehicles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNgsETaMK9Q#t=242

Battlefield photos from Uglegorsk.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - УглегорÑк, повÑедневноÑÑ‚ÑŒ войны

According to CAST Ukraine has lost 2 of the 3 counter-battery mortar radars provided by the US. One was seriously damaged in unloading, and the other lost from rebel arty fire.

bmpd - УкраинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð°Ñ€Ð¼Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ñ‚ÐµÑ€Ñла две из трех первых поÑтавленных РЛС заÑечки минометных позиций LCMR

Ukrainian sources claim they've destroyed a Pantsyr-1S SAM.

УкраинÑкие СМИ Ñообщают об уничтожении ЗРПК Панцирь-С1

The rebels have shot down a Tochka missile. How is a good question.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Это была ракета
ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Ð¡Ð±Ð¸Ñ‚Ð°Ñ Ñ€Ð°ÐºÐµÑ‚Ð°

New Uragan vehicles for the rebels.

Ð’ ХарцызÑке были обнаружены ÑиÑтемы залпового Ð¾Ð³Ð½Ñ Ð½ÐµÐ¸Ð·Ð²ÐµÑтного проиÑхождениÑ

Mine-rollers for tanks, in rebel hands. This is after they lost a nasty amount of tanks near Uglegorsk, due to AT mines.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Инженерные подразделениÑ

Rebel tanks lost near Uglegorsk.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - Потери

Helicopters were used by Ukraine near Debal'tsevo. Given how rare this has been lately, it's definitely a sign that Ukrainian command is getting desperate.

Украина задейÑтвовала вертолеты в Ñпецоперации вблизи Дебальцево

Fighting near Mariupol' has resumed.

Ð’ районе ÐœÐ°Ñ€Ð¸ÑƒÐ¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ Ð²Ð¾Ð·Ð¾Ð±Ð½Ð¾Ð²Ð¸Ð»Ð¸ÑÑŒ боевые дейÑтвиÑ

Pfrom the warzone.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - Украина по две Ñтороны прицела...

An OSCE UAV was shot at near Mariupol'.

http://newsru.com/world/04feb2015/oscebpla.html

The EU plans to expand the sanctions to include Novorossiya leaders.

http://newsru.com/world/05feb2015/spisok.html

A Ukrainian General HQ colonel was arrested by the SBU, for allegedly being a Russian spy, saboteur, and for spreading misinformation about the "so-called heavy casualties and difficult situation with the volunteer btlns". Personally I think the last one is the real reason.

ЧаÑтный руÑÑкий журнал - СБУ громит украинÑкий Генштаб

Russia is simplifying procedures for hiring contract soldiers.

http://newsru.com/russia/04feb2015/contraquick.html

So while the Donetsk rebels have declared a mobilization, the Lugansk rebels have publicly refused to do so.

http://newsru.com/world/03feb2015/lugan.html

 

[Nick underscore]

Which is why the LNR is pushing another offensive north of Svetlodarsk entirely, through Popasnaya, towards Artemovsk. This would create a bigger pocket, dodge the problem of trying to hold the difficult positions at Svetlodarsk against government attempts to deblock the pocket, and give the Ukrainian military too many other things to worry about, to effectively support or rescue the forces left at Debal'tsevo.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivanov/71733898/38413/38413_original.jpg

Maps linked for clarification.

Moving away from Russian economics..

Better detail from same map provided a few days ago by Feanor, with some UA unit designations and positions. It looks like a real mess, with Bgdes split all over the frontline. UA concentrations highlighted, illustrate the Debal'tsevo situation (also detailed by Feanor a few days ago).
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/dragon_first_1/72271520/72898/72898_900.jpg

Feanor - Below look correct from the UA Bgde-level in your view? Can't see any reference to the previously chewed 51st Mech or the 36th Marines.. Any help appreciated, cheers

These are the UA Bgdes, with some updates from Sept last year;

1st Arm - NE of Luhansk City (early Aug) - Now Debal'tsevo pocket & NE of Luhansk?
17th Arm - Uninvolved to date (sept) - Now North of Mariopul?
24th Mech; 1st Saur-M off, Stepanivka (mid Aug) - Now North & NE of Luhansk?
25th Air-Mobile; SW of Dontesk, Hvy Cas ~700+ (end Aug) - Now Debal'tsevo pocket & West of Donetsk?
28th Mech; Broke out Ilovaysk pocket (late Aug) - Now Mariupol & SW of Donetsk?
30th Mech; Hvy Cas in Ilovaysk pocket (late Aug) - Now West of Donetsk?
36th Marine; Transinstra border & Crimean border (sept) - Now ???? Was this unit in Donetsk airport?
51st Mech; 1st Saur-M off & Ilovaysk pocket (late Aug) - Now ????
72nd Mech; Hvy Cas at 1st Saur-M off (early Aug) - Now SW of Donetsk?
79th Air-Mobile; 1st Saur-M off & Shahtersk (early Aug) - Now West of Donetsk?
80th Air-Mobile; Schastje & 2nd Saur-M (early Aug) - Now North & NE of Luhansk?
92nd Mech; Nothing to note... (sept) - Now North, NE of Luhansk & Debal'tsevo pocket?
93rd Mech; Small number revolted (mid Apr) - Now West of Donetsk?
95th Air-Mobile; Illoyvsk pocket (aug) - Now West of Donetsk?
128th Mtn Mech; light skirmish near Schastje (early June) - Now NE of Luhansk, Debal'tsevo pocket & North of Mariupol?
169th Mech (Training unit at Derna) - Has this unit been involved??

Do also per chance, you have the unit numbers of the 4x new infantry brigades you mentioned? I beleive 1 will be used in Kharkiv border region.

EDIT; Apparently a fragile ceasefire is holding in Debal'tsevo, with talks ongoing in Moscow..

 

[Feanor]

Iirc the 51st Mech was disbanded, and a new Mech Bde was created on it's basis. This essentially amounts to a replacement of the unit number, unit flag, and unit leadership. The locations you have for the units are quite vague because they're not evenly distributed and those locations are not adjacent. Otherwise I don't see anything out of place immediately.

The 169th was iirc a training center at Desna. Has it been unfolded into a Mech Bde?

 

[Feanor]

Iirc the 51st Mech was disbanded, and a new Mech Bde was created on it's basis. This essentially amounts to a replacement of the unit number, unit flag, and unit leadership. The locations you have for the units are quite vague because they're not evenly distributed and those locations are not adjacent. Otherwise I don't see anything out of place immediately.

The 169th was iirc a training center at Desna. Has it been unfolded into a Mech Bde?

 

[KiwiRob]

So now the Germans and French have met with Putin, any guesses what the outcome will be?

 

[gazzzwp]

So now the Germans and French have met with Putin, any guesses what the outcome will be?

Very difficult. Assuming Putin agrees to a 25 mile DMZ it's bound to come with pre-conditions such as no future NATO presence.

What can the West do? Any more sanctions will just be met with more cynicism by Russia or even a tit for tat response because no nation on earth yet has ever responded positively to sanctions. Cuba and Iran being good examples. Defiant belligerence and a 'make-do-as-long-as-it-takes attitude unfortunately seems to be the only response a government makes.

Arming Ukraine to achieve battle field parity could work, but whatever military assistance the West offers will only be matched by greater numbers of similar modern weaponry from the east. Russia has proved that it does not care about another war on it's border; it us used to them now and can easily live with it. On the other hand Europe is more nervous and may well in that event cave in Russian aggression for a quiet life even if it means more of Ukraine being swallowed up by Russia.

The truth is that Russia is a powerful, well armed and deadly opponent in such a situation and whenever the West comes into conflict with them in their own back yard the West will lose; it's a geographical certainty.

So how can a nation like Ukraine that has chosen western alliances in favour of eastern be protected from this?

Move in a well equipped NATO reaction force, to mark out a DMZ? I believe that this is the only option.

 

[swerve]

...The truth is that Russia is a powerful, well armed and deadly opponent in such a situation and whenever the West comes into conflict with them in their own back yard the West will lose; it's a geographical certainty....

Except that the west has overwhelming economic & industrial superiority, & the geographical difference is actually very small. Look at a map. Ukraine isn't much more Russia's backyard than it is NATO's or the EU's. Equipment can be loaded onto trains or lorries & driven across the border from any one of four NATO members into Ukraine.

Remember when the USSR tried to match the west militarily. It broke its economy. The economic disparity in the west's favour is now much bigger. Germany alone has a bigger GDP, however you count it.

If NATO countries just gave Ukraine munitions which are reaching the end of their shelf life & would otherwise have to be scrapped, equipment in working order but being withdrawn from service, & provided intelligence, satellite data & so on, they could bleed Russia at essentially no cost to themselves. The Russian economy is already slumping. Russia can't afford escalation.

 

[Spacearrow99]

How to Lose an Energy War With Putin - Derek Brower - POLITICO Magazine

The article above explains the economic collapse of the USSR. The Russians are benefiting greatly from the Soviets love of high end weapons programs.

(these weapons systems were world leading systems)
Yakovlev Yak-141
Oscar II
RSD-10 Pioneer
RT-23 Molodets

 

[swerve]

The Soviet economy was stagnating before the the oil price collapse. One economic historian described it as 'settling gently on an even keel'. And note that the oil price fell from a very high level. If the Soviet economy was dealt a death blow by that oil price fall, it was doomed anyway. You can't run an economy which needs peak commodity prices to survive. Sooner or later, there'll be a price slump - & then you'll be done for.

It's like borrowing as much as you can make the payments on when interest rates are exceptionally low. One day, rates will go up, & then you'll be done for. You have to have margins, or you have no resilience.

BTW, haven't you noticed what's happened to oil prices since that article was published?

 

[Spacearrow99]

The Soviet economy was stagnating before the the oil price collapse. One economic historian described it as 'settling gently on an even keel'. And note that the oil price fell from a very high level. If the Soviet economy was dealt a death blow by that oil price fall, it was doomed anyway. You can't run an economy which needs peak commodity prices to survive. Sooner or later, there'll be a price slump - & then you'll be done for.

It's like borrowing as much as you can make the payments on when interest rates are exceptionally low. One day, rates will go up, & then you'll be done for. You have to have margins, or you have no resilience.

BTW, haven't you noticed what's happened to oil prices since that article was published?

The Soviets needed peak commodity prices to survive. Russia doesn't spend well over 10% of its GDP on defense. I have all so noticed that Russia is still increasing its defense budget in 2015.

 

[Feanor]

Move in a well equipped NATO reaction force, to mark out a DMZ? I believe that this is the only option.

Honestly some of the opinions I hear voiced here terrify me. How do you think that kind of move would develop? Would it make Europe a safer place?

The Soviet economy was stagnating before the the oil price collapse. One economic historian described it as 'settling gently on an even keel'. And note that the oil price fell from a very high level. If the Soviet economy was dealt a death blow by that oil price fall, it was doomed anyway. You can't run an economy which needs peak commodity prices to survive. Sooner or later, there'll be a price slump - & then you'll be done for.

I'm always amused by the fact that westerners genuinely believe that oil prices or military spending are what brought down the USSR. The USSR was brought down by the internal political crisis, not the economic one. It survived much worse economic conditions only mere decades earlier.

I have all so noticed that Russia is still increasing its defense budget in 2015.

Not a smart move, in all honesty.

 

[Klaus]

Has the decision to not cut defence spending this year already been made? I've read on vedomosti that parts of the Duma still oppose Siluanov's plans. Investing in research and development and to support small and medium enterprises would probably be better, even the government's anti-crisis plan says that, hopefully it will really be implemented.

 

[stojo]

I'm always amused by the fact that westerners genuinely believe that oil prices or military spending are what brought down the USSR. The USSR was brought down by the internal political crisis, not the economic one. It survived much worse economic conditions only mere decades earlier.

USSR was brought down by an ill attempted simultaneous political and economic reforms. Rationale behind those was to tackle systematic deficiencies of the centrally-planned economy, which came to light, once USSR became part of global economy, trough its oil exports during the seventies.

Then, there was ideological disappointment with "real existing socialism", and bunch of other things.

So oil prices have something to do with it, but the oil is not the soul cause of the dissolution.

 

[Feanor]

Has the decision to not cut defence spending this year already been made? I've read on vedomosti that parts of the Duma still oppose Siluanov's plans. Investing in research and development and to support small and medium enterprises would probably be better, even the government's anti-crisis plan says that, hopefully it will really be implemented.

Good question. So far it's been proceeding as planned, but the GPV-2020 was adjusted downward. So we'll see.

USSR was brought down by an ill attempted simultaneous political and economic reforms. Rationale behind those was to tackle systematic deficiencies of the centrally-planned economy, which came to light, once USSR became part of global economy, trough its oil exports during the seventies.

It wasn't just the oil exports that made the USSR part of the global economy, and let's not forget that the USSR was at the head of it's own economic bloc, COMECON, with plenty of third world client states. So it was hardly isolated.

Then, there was ideological disappointment with "real existing socialism", and bunch of other things.

Sure, there were plenty of exacerbating factors.

So oil prices have something to do with it, but the oil is not the soul cause of the dissolution.

Or even the main one. The main cause were the reforms of the Soviet system, not the system itself. Specifically the political crisis that ensued from the disagreement on how to proceed with those reforms. A system with two branches of government can be rather unstable.

 

[Feanor]

It looks like the Debal'tsevo pocket has been closed with the fall of Logvinovo. If this is correct, the pocket is closer south of Svetlodarsk. The LNR offensive is still heading for Artemovsk through Popasnaya. It remains to be seen whether a second pocket forms as a result.

I'll post a long update tomorrow.

 

[Feanor]

It looks like the Debal'tsevo pocket has been closed with the fall of Logvinovo. If this is correct, the pocket is closer south of Svetlodarsk. The LNR offensive is still heading for Artemovsk through Popasnaya. It remains to be seen whether a second pocket forms as a result.

I'll post a long update tomorrow.

 

[Nick underscore]

USSR was brought down by an ill attempted simultaneous political and economic reforms. Rationale behind those was to tackle systematic deficiencies of the centrally-planned economy, which came to light, once USSR became part of global economy, trough its oil exports during the seventies.

Then, there was ideological disappointment with "real existing socialism", and bunch of other things.

So oil prices have something to do with it, but the oil is not the soul cause of the dissolution.

Correct. It was a combination of both

Let's not forget the important agricultural aspect, both internally and externally through the grain markets requirements. Look at the huge economic investments made by the central govt in the five year plans throughout the 1970's. This, and the reforms made in late 80's to correct massive inefficiencies and high production costs. This all affected change on the former state for better or worse