The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Larry_L

Active Member
A Tochka-U launch. Possibly a time on target air defense bait tor the airfield strike.


A vid of the action at the Berdyansk airport. I see at least one intact airframe.


Apparently at least some of the ATACMS supplied are the short range version.


An image of the bomblets from the missals.


A Russian channel comments on the attack.


The report from Aljazeera for today. Of note, Russia is now pushing hard in the Kupiansk area. They are determined to seek the initiative.

 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
The equipment situation in UKR (at least from US donations) depends on what IS is asking for. HIMARS --> UKR. MRAPS, HMMV, Strikers ---> UKR.
155mm ammo ---> ? Not sure if IS has asked for that yet.

The priorities for UKR likely depend on the casualty rates they suffered in these last 4 months. If they managed to avoid large scale attrition, then I would it consider likely they will keep taking small bites out of RU lines.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Any word on whether the Abrams tanks have been used in Ukraine yet? They allegedly arrived a month ago.
Crickets so far. Presumably they will go into one of the new units Ukraine is currently forming. It takes time to not only train the crew but to integrate platoons, companies, the btln, and train together with the infantry to make them useful. A delay is normal especially since the offensive is basically over.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
It appears Ukraine has launched their first ATACMS strike, against the Russian airfield in Berdyansk where helos are based. So far we don't have accurate BDA but it seems they hit munition storage and damaged some helos.

The BBC is reporting that images purporting to be of debris from the strike (not verified by the BBC) show what appears to be fragments of an early model ATACMS (MGM-140A), with a contract number for a batch to be completed in 1997. It makes sense that Ukraine would receive old missiles: have the Ukrainians dispose of them. ;)
Ukraine uses US-supplied ATACMS for the first time, says Zelensky
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The BBC is reporting that images purporting to be of debris from the strike (not verified by the BBC) show what appears to be fragments of an early model ATACMS (MGM-140A), with a contract number for a batch to be completed in 1997. It makes sense that Ukraine would receive old missiles: have the Ukrainians dispose of them. ;)
Ukraine uses US-supplied ATACMS for the first time, says Zelensky
And it appears we're looking at atleast 6 destroyed helos. This is based on burned markings at helo parking areas. It's likely a number of other aircraft were damaged to varying degrees but were hauled away or put out before they burned down to the point of leaving a burn mark on the landing strip.

 

Armchair

Well-Known Member
Presumably ATACMS was the eventual Ukrainian solution to the problem (explained in great detail in this thread - thanks Feanor and others) by Russian helicopters launching long range missiles at attacking armour.
 

Dex

Member
Crickets so far. Presumably they will go into one of the new units Ukraine is currently forming. It takes time to not only train the crew but to integrate platoons, companies, the btln, and train together with the infantry to make them useful. A delay is normal especially since the offensive is basically over.
Any word on the hit on the Naval command post in Crimea? Did the Commander really die? Any word on updated number of casualties?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Any word on the hit on the Naval command post in Crimea? Did the Commander really die? Any word on updated number of casualties?
Well, nothing on casualty figures. But the commander didn't die. At least it appears he was present on a group video call at a large MinDef meeting aftewards.


Russia's advance on Avdeevka appears halted. Russia has reportedly backed off part of the refuse mound, but still holds the north-eastern high points on it. Russian positions are currently in the fog of war, so it's unclear whether fighting is taking place. If Russia still holds the elevated rail mound, the refuse mound, and the 200m ridge between Vodyanoe and Severnoe, they will be in a position to resume attacks after a break. If not, it will be starting from scratch.
More and more reports in Russian social media sources indicate the ultimate failure of the Russian attack at Avdeevka, citing failure of counter-battery efforts, and an inability to hold some of the captured positions. It's unclear what the final picture looks like, and some sources are reporting Russian forces digging in and holding some of the captured ground. The ultimate significance will come from the 3 elevated areas Russia took in the initial push, that include the railway berm, the refuse mound, and the hill between Severnoe and Vodyanoe-Opytnoe area. Sources do tend to agree that they've forced back Ukrainian units somewhat, but of course this wouldn't justify the cost in losses or resources. Notably absent from Avdeevka are lancet strikes.

And confirmation of another Ukrainian strike against a Russian airfield have appeared, hitting a Russian helo airfield in Lugansk region. Casualties are unclear, but there are clearly some damaged helos.


EDIT: My limited update just got upstaged by Rybar. I'll do a more detailed update that includes his latest post later tonight, time permitting.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Avdeevka.

In Avdeevka it appears Ukraine counter-attacked and pushed Russian forces out of Berdychy and Petrovskoe area. Russian forces are still holding the refuse mound, the rail berm, and the positions south of Adveevka. No movements and no clarity on the positions near Severnoe. Note I'm going to lean on rybar for this since his maps are usually accurate. It appears Russia is currently trying to hold what they captured. If they succeed, further attacks will eventually follow from these new positions, with the benefit of higher ground. Meanwhile Ukrainian reinforcements have shown up not only near Berdychy and Krasnogorovka, but also near Pervomayskoe. In general it's likely Russia's offensive isn't spent, and if phase one doesn't turn into a total failure, there will be a phase 2. So far the scale of the fighting is relatively small compared to the massive Ukrainian effort in Zaporozhye or even the three-axis advance on the Oskol (though the latter is much slower).


Russian assault team clearing a trench, near Avdeevka.


Russian forces capturing a junction. I believe this is south of Avdeevka near the E-50 road.


Ukrainian SPG team getting hit near Avdeevka. Along with highly modern NLAWs and Javelins, Ukraine's anti-tank teams are resorting to this 1960's recoilless rifle. It highlights the nature of the conflict.


Allegedly Ukrainian artillery getting hit 10kms east of Pervomayskoe.


Russia struck a bridge in Konstantinovka. This is undoubtedly meant to make supplies and reinforcement to Avdeevka slower. This doesn't cut them off, not even close, but every lost bridge is an extra difficulty.


Kherson and the Dnepr.

A Ukrainian landing forces combining territorial defense forces, and marines from the 35th Bde, forced the Dnepr and pushed back Russian forces in the village of Krynki. After initially expanding the landing, they were rapidly pushed back. Russian strikes against boats attempting to bring reinforcements and evacuate wounded were reported. Ukrainian forces still hold a foothold there.


Russian airstrikes hitting the Ukrainian landing party near the railbridge, at Poyma.


Interesting tidbits.


Russia's attacks on the Oskol have resumed on the Svatovo axis, gaining ground towards Makeevka and Nevskoe. Russia is also pushing towards Torskoe but the gains there are quite minor. Overall this creeping offensive both can't result in a strategic breakthrough, and yet continues to pull resources for both sides. There are reports of additional Ukrainian pontoon bridges being set up to replace recently struck crossings.


A Russian UAV watches as a Ukrainian UGV plants anti-tank mines. The unmanned battlefield is here.


A couple of Ukrainian ARVs hit near Orekhov, including a BTS-4, and a Bergenpanzer 3. The pause in the fighting is being used by Ukrainia forces to try and recover any vehicles that haven't been finished off. The optimist in me wants to think that Russia didn't finish off these vehicles to lure Ukraine into doomed recovery efforts. However that hasn't been the case so far in this fight.


First confirmation of a LMUR Izd 305 strike from a Ka-52(M?).


First footage of Russia's TOS-2 thermobaric MLRS. The newer versions of munitions for it have a range of up to 10 kms. It's unclear if it can do packet reloading. If it can, it's another Grad alternative. Either way the proliferation of very similar systems on unique chassis with partially overlapping capabilities is silly. It uses the same Ural chassis as the Floks mortar/gun combined vehicle.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some side thoughts. Rumors in Russian social media and Rybar's update don't completely match. There is some similarity. For example initially it appears Russian forces overran the refuse mound but were pushed back, and then managed to retain a piece, and even expand their area of control. The situation around Petrovskoe and Berdychy remains murky. Russia clearly attacked there and clearly couldn't hold anything, but beyond that it's unclear. Russian efforts towards Severnoe are a mystery. There is some overlap from Russian and Ukrainian sources about Russian forces using motor-cycles to make rapid resupply runs, and eventually the bikes being destroyed (Ukrainian sources imply this was almost immediate, Russian sources talk about getting some use out of them initially). I suspect Russia hasn't managed to hold the positions gained here. Finally the fighting around the southern outskirts is the clearest. It appears Russia initially attacked there, grabbed a foothold on the road, and then steadily expanded that foothold and now has a decent gain in ground. Of course this is also the least significant area since ahead is an entire town full of Ukrainian soldiers, fortifications, and landmines. In other words defending here was probably a lower priority for Ukraine. Finally even Russian social media discussions seem to be inconsistent, though this can be explained away with people reporting different things from different prongs of the offensive.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
There was film footage of Russian troops using bright blue bikes they had acquired before something happened that could not be shown on utube
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There was film footage of Russian troops using bright blue bikes they had acquired before something happened that could not be shown on utube
Do you happen to have the source? Ideally one including the part that couldn't be shown on youtube.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Sadly no it was from a Ukrainian sourced blogger I cant be bothered accessing footage that is not shown on YouTube ,I find it ghoulish I don't have any interest in accessing this type of material from either side
 

Jaykaro

Member
I believe that the losses due to stupidity have long surpassed those in Bilohorivka. It's clear right away the hand of professional generals, like Muradov. Even with such a flawed strategy, the presence of a larger number of people and the lack of a proper amount of weaponry in Ukraine, Avdiivka will eventually be squeezed
 

Schrödinger'sCat

New Member
Oh, sweep it under the carpet so we forget it ever happened. But the reality is this, imperial US gaining ground in old imperial Russia’s backyard. The US can have interest that needs to be protected all the way in Ukraine and Russia shouldn’t have any interest to protect just across her border. The Russians are not having it anymore
Well, for the time being, The Russians, and not the US are across the fence.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Oh, sweep it under the carpet so we forget it ever happened. But the reality is this, imperial US gaining ground in old imperial Russia’s backyard. The US can have interest that needs to be protected all the way in Ukraine and Russia shouldn’t have any interest to protect just across her border. The Russians are not having it anymore
When did the USA invade Ukraine? Russia's freedom to impose its interests on Ukraine end at Ukraine's border. In Ukraine, Ukraine's interests take precedence.
 
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