The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update.

Oskol Front.

Russian forces have made another gain near Kupyansk, this one to the east. Russia has been inching forward here slowly, but has a long way to go to the town. Ukraine is bringing up reinforcements and laying down many mines.

Купянский участок: продвижение ВС РФ у Первомайского

Под Купянском продолжаются позиционные бои. Российские подразделения группировки войск «Запад» ведут планомерное подавление позиций украинских сил, обеспечивая продвижение без больших потерь.

rybar.ru

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/11/02/20231102211257-db2af29e.jpg

Avdeevka.

It appears I was mistaken. Next steps for Russia don't involve another push at Berdychy to the west. Instead Russia is attacking northward towards Novokalinovo. The intent may be to take a stronger position there since there were reports of Ukrainian reserves there and Russian airstrikes against the village. The intent may be to prepare for a counter-attack. There may also be an intent to take the village, and then push on Ocheretino to swing around towards Berdychy from the north. Russian forces have also gained some ground along the rail berm. However Russian forces are also pushing on several other areas. They've approached the chemical plant from the east, likely using the superior vantage point of the refuse mound to cover their advance. There were also reported minor Russian advances towards the filtering station, and on the southern outskirts. Nothing significant, but Russian forces are reportedly right outside the town presumably in preparation for a push into it. The air defense base south of there is fortified and held by Ukraine but reportedly cut off by Russian forces. Lastly according to rybar Russia has overrun the main Ukrainian defense line on the hill finger south of Severnoe. If true, and if Russia can hold it, they are in a much better position to assault the village.

Битва за Авдеевку: активное продвижение ВС РФ с юга и севера

В Авдеевке сводные подразделения российской армии продолжают штурм укреплений ВСУ вокруг населенного пункта. Параллельно ВС РФ выполняют задачи по уничтожению подкреплений, снятых с других участков фронта.

rybar.ru

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/11/02/20231102143139-79fe7fef.jpg

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Наступление на Авдеевку: Армия России продвигается на фланге ▪️Успехи наших войск признают украинские военные аналитики. ▪️"Севернее и западнее Красногоровки российские войска продвинулись в направлении Новокалинова и Степового. Бои продолжаются", - говорится в украинской сводке. ▪️"Ещё...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России с боями прорвалась к Авдеевскому коксохиму ▪️Украинские военные аналитики публикуют новую карту обстановки у Авдеевского коксохимического завода с выделенным красным и серым последних успехов ВС РФ — противник признаёт, что Авдеевский террикон под полным контролем наших войск и...

t.me

Three Bradleys and a Leo-2A6 destroyed near Avdeevka after a failed counter-attack by Ukraine's 47th bde.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Бои под Донецком: 1-й корпус уничтожил 3 американских «Бредли» на севере Авдеевки Армия России продолжает наступление на Донецком фронте, уничтожая вражескую бронетехнику и живую силу. На кадрах видна поражённая НАТОвская техника, переброшенная с Запорожья 47 бригады "Магура". ВСУ применяли БМП...

t.me

Interesting piece of Russia expending a Lancet to finish off a knocked out Bradley, though it's not clear how successfully from this footage. It does hit it and we get smoke.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zaporozhye.

Russia is continuing to move forward on the Vremyevskiy bulge. Ukrainian Marine units have been moved to Kherson region and reportedly replaced by territorial defense formations that are having a hard time holding the area. So far these are minor advances west of Staromayorskoe. It's possible they're laying the foundation for recapturing the village. Interesting to note is that the unit involved from the Russian side is reported as the 394 MRRgt of the 127th MRDiv, an unremarkable line motor-rifles unit.

Рыбарь

❗️ Времьевский участок: контратака 394 полка ВС РФ обстановка к исходу 2 ноября 2023 года На рубеже Приютное — Старомайорское на Времьевском участке российские подразделения не первую неделю ведут тактическое наступление, продвигаясь планомерно позиция за позицией. Если на прошлой неделе...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/11/02/20231102212646-834c68ad.jpg

A Leo-2A4 with extra armor knocked out together with a pair of M113s and either a Strkyer or a BTR.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Other interesting tidbits.

We have better footage of the Kul'bakino airbase in Nikolaev where Russia apparently destroyed three Ukrainian MiG-29s on the ground. Note this is not the Dolgintsevo airbase near Dnepropetrovsk where the combined cruise missile and Lancet strike took out at least 4 jets, including 3 MiG-29s and an Su-25. The jets appear to have missiles, meaning these were active jets not dead donors for spare parts. Reportedly this was a missile strike in September. If Russia had done this on day 1 of the war, it would have been a much different fight, though of course later is better then never.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженные МиГ-29 ВВС Украины на аэродроме Кульбакино в Николаевской области — результат работы наших ВКС. Самолеты ВВСУ поражены ракетным ударом в сентябре 2023 46.947369, 32.111038

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

МиГ-29 - уничтожен На аэродроме Кульбакино в Николаевской области. Геопривязка РЛ: (46.947369, 32.111038) Самолет ВВСУ успешно поражен ракетным ударом ВС РФ в сентябре 2023. Прислано подписчиком.

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

Перезалив с уточнениями МиГ-29 - уничтожен На АБ Кульбакино в г. Николаев Николаевской области. Геопривязка СК: (46.935898, 32.080930) Успешное поражение истребителя ВСУ в 50-ти км от ЛБС. Источник ; №2

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

МиГ-29 - уничтожен На авиабазе Кульбакино Николаевской области. Геопривязка РЛ: (46.936637, 32.082347) Второй самолет ВВСУ с Р-27, сожженный ракетным ударом в сентябре 2023. Прислано подписчиком.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A destroyed Ukrainian vehicle repair base, location unclear. Reportedly a Russian missile strike. It appears to be mostly unarmored trucks though it's hard to tell.

Повёрнутые на войне

Уничтоженная ремонтно-восстановительная база ВСУ в результате ракетного удара.

t.me

Reportedly another Stormer SAM hit near Donestk by a new-type Lancet.

Рубрика от Ледка

Stormer HVM - поражен Юго-западнее с. Елизаветовка в Донецкой области. Геопривязка СК: (47.865230, 37.280790) Расчет Изделия Х-51 из 155-й гв. ОБрМП поразил ЗРК ВСУ. Источник #Ланцет

t.me

Russian remote minelayer system mounted on a tiny buggy. There have been reports recently of Russia doing quite a number on Ukraine's near-rear in the Orekhov area with remote mines causing major problems for Ukraine's supply vehicles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia's 11th Para-Assault Bde riding a Toyota MegaCruiser vehicle with a ZU-23-2 mounted in the back. Allegedly this is a captured vehicle.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reportedly the DPRK delivered 1 million artillery shells to Russia. Presumably this will be a boon for the DPRK arms industry, and much needed help for Russia.

North Korea Sent 1 Million Rounds of Artillery to Russia, Spy Agency Says

North Korea has sent more than 1 million rounds of artillery to Russia that President Vladimir Putin appears to be using in his bombardment of Ukraine, according to a lawmaker briefed by South Korea’s spy agency.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[T.C.P]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/17maq1y
This is the Vostok groups personal project. This is suppose to be significantly cheaper than Lancets and easier to make. But has an inferior camera. Its called the Scalpel.

https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1720118662885994942?s=46&t=B9ABSqqPTQr0uJhXJbvg8g

As per the Ukr journalist, the Ukranians have made no second line fortifications in Adviivka despite this being a hotspot since 2014. As per the article and sat images, Russians have already started fortifying their gains in this sector. This is not the first time we have seen Ukrainians complain about their engineering inferiority compared to the Russians. I remember an excerpt from a 47th brigade soldier after the start of the counter offensive, where he mentioned that Russian engineers and sappers were just significantly superior to their Ukr counterparts.

Note for the reddit link-to view the links better. On your browser, after the link is open, simply replace the "www" with "old" on the reddit page URL.

I forgot to post this article before-

The situation in Magura Brigade is far from perfect | MilitaryLand.net

Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade has a new commander, who sends everybody to storm enemy positions. The situation around 47th Mechanized Brigade Magura, one of the spearheads of the Ukrainian…

militaryland.net

This is about the 47th brigade , one of the elite attack brigades. Interesing article and shows the effects of high attrition. I try to read from many pro Ukr and pro Russia sources to get a better understanding of things and the following is completely my personal opinion. But i get the feeling from the different pro Ukr telegram channels, that other brigades and groupings dont like the 47th very much. There is always a bit fo snark when they talk about the 47th. I get the sense that the not so pro 47th telegrams think that thye are overhyped. Once again all of this is my personal opinion from spending time on pro Ukr telegrams and forums and is in no way factual.

Thread by @GeoConfirmed on Thread Reader App

@GeoConfirmed: GeoConfirmed Investigation - Russian Avdiivka Offensive Based on Open Sources and double checked by Com Sat Img, since the offensive started on 9 or 10 October: Russian losses: 197 vehicle losses. 18 ...…

threadreaderapp.com

A summary of the Russian vehicle losses in Avdeevka since 9th october. Geo located 200+ losses. Truly abysmal.

 

[seaspear]

The U.S government has announced further measures to sanction individuals and oranisations aiming to circumvent sanctions against Russia ,possibly tip of iceberg ,with aid received from both Chinese firms and North Korea
US strikes on Russia: Targets international web aiding Russian military production (msn.com)

 

[Ananda]

US talk on further sanctioning DPRK is laughable. They basically already spent out any sanctioning threat there is to DPRK. They are already have nothing left (on sanctions threats) not only to DPRK and Russia, but also Iran and Venezuela. That's the problem on sanctions, as US basically already push that to the bones.

As for Chinese organizations and companies, well let's see how far they will want to do it, without further increasing trade war. This is in the eve that US want to improve back trade relations.

Yellen: Indo-Pacific allies should not have to choose between US, China

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday sought to reassure Asian countries that the U.S. approach to China would not lead to a 'disastrous' division of the global economy that would force them to take sides.

www.reuters.com

 

[seaspear]

I agree on the threat to D.P.R.K perhaps Chinese companies wishing to export to the U.S but that was not what the U.S announcements were aimed at
already it seems Russia is having some difficulty from sanctions, as from these articles you cannot just assess the G.D.P as an accurate portrayal of the economy with increased spending on military output up substantially artificially presenting all is well
The cost of war in Ukraine means growing economic pain for Russia | CNN Business
Here's how sanctions are impacting the Russian economy | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Is the Ukraine war boosting or damaging the Russian economy? | Russia | The Guardian

 

[Ananda]

Russian economy is hurting, is a known fact and it is been talk also in this forum in other threads. However what not happening is Western politicians bravado in media, that their sanctions will paralyzed Russian Economy thus War Machines before year end. And That's last year talk.

I also put in other thread that their (West) price cap will only have limited impact for Russian oil income. Market that will determine Russian oil price and not some Western politicians 'dream' policies. At this moment Russian oil already trading above USD 60 threshold of Western Price Cap, and basically not much West can do about that.

Market mechanism is the rules, and not some Politicians talks. Market will adjust, and in the end not much the politicians can do (unless they want to hurt their own economies further). There are prices that Russian pay, but also West must pay on this trade war.

Russian export asside oil is down because World economies also down. As Russia export mostly in basic materials and commodities. Hydrocarbons are finite supplies, and everyone still need Hydrocarbons despite all this talk on alternative energy. If Global economies recover, there will be also increase demand for Russian commodities, no matter West talks. If West not buying, someones else will buy Russian exports.

Russia economies is hurting, no doubt about that, but also Euro zone. While Ukrainian economies basically destroy and can only survive with West hand outs. That's the price for this war so far on economics.

 

[Redshift]

Russian economy is hurting, is a known fact and it is been talk also in this forum in other threads. However what not happening is Western politicians bravado in media, that their sanctions will paralyzed Russian Economy thus War Machines before year end. And That's last year talk.

I also put in other thread that their (West) price cap will only have limited impact for Russian oil income. Market that will determine Russian oil price and not some Western politicians 'dream' policies. At this moment Russian oil already trading above USD 60 threshold of Western Price Cap, and basically not much West can do about that.

Market mechanism is the rules, and not some Politicians talks. Market will adjust, and in the end not much the politicians can do (unless they want to hurt their own economies further). There are prices that Russian pay, but also West must pay on this trade war.

Russian export asside oil is down because World economies also down. As Russia export mostly in basic materials and commodities. Hydrocarbons are finite supplies, and everyone still need Hydrocarbons despite all this talk on alternative energy. If Global economies recover, there will be also increase demand for Russian commodities, no matter West talks. If West not buying, someones else will buy Russian exports.

Russia economies is hurting, no doubt about that, but also Euro zone. While Ukrainian economies basically destroy and can only survive with West hand outs. That's the price for this war so far on economics.

"Oil and gas revenues in the entire January-September period declined by 34.5% to 5.576 trillion roubles, year-on-year."

The above is a quote from the following article from Reuters:

Russian oil and gas budget revenues up 15% in September m/m - official data

The Russian state's oil and gas revenues rose by around 15% in September, month-on-month, to 739.9 billion roubles ($7.44 billion), finance ministry data showed on Wednesday, thanks to a rise in proceeds from the mineral extraction tax.

www.reuters.com

.

So Russian oil and gas exports maybe not quite so rock solid as you have asserted.

 

[Ananda]

Russian oil and gas exports maybe not quite so rock solid as you have asserted.

What I already talk and put on this thread and other threads, is Russian oil and gas exports determined more by Market much more then Westerners Politicians. Global oil demand and supply, thus market mechanism that determines Russian Hydrocarbons exports.

Something that seems some continuous not understanding and accepting, Market mechanisms is more powerful then Politics, on matter of Global Trade.

 

[Dead Money]

Russian economy is hurting, is a known fact and it is been talk also in this forum in other threads. However what not happening is Western politicians bravado in media, that their sanctions will paralyzed Russian Economy thus War Machines before year end. And That's last year talk.

I also put in other thread that their (West) price cap will only have limited impact for Russian oil income. Market that will determine Russian oil price and not some Western politicians 'dream' policies. At this moment Russian oil already trading above USD 60 threshold of Western Price Cap, and basically not much West can do about that.

Market mechanism is the rules, and not some Politicians talks. Market will adjust, and in the end not much the politicians can do (unless they want to hurt their own economies further). There are prices that Russian pay, but also West must pay on this trade war.

Russian export asside oil is down because World economies also down. As Russia export mostly in basic materials and commodities. Hydrocarbons are finite supplies, and everyone still need Hydrocarbons despite all this talk on alternative energy. If Global economies recover, there will be also increase demand for Russian commodities, no matter West talks. If West not buying, someones else will buy Russian exports.

Russia economies is hurting, no doubt about that, but also Euro zone. While Ukrainian economies basically destroy and can only survive with West hand outs. That's the price for this war so far on economics.

The discount to Brent crude has been declining slowly for a while:

Urals-Brent spread 2023 | Statista

The market always eventually adjusts - but even if we take the implementation of the price cap as being responsible for the December to March discount bump without any further impact, then that is still a non-trivial amount of money that is now not in Russian coffers. And congrats to India for making bank on it.

I think you're right about the state of the Ukrainian economy, and the global cost. Personally I hope support stays strong for Ukraine - the West and wider world can afford the pain and cost if it wants to - doing such is about priorities and willpower.

Dead Money

 

[Ananda]

but even if we take the implementation of the price cap as being responsible for the December to March discount bump without any further impact, then that is still a non-trivial amount of money that is now not in Russian coffers. And congrats to India for making bank on it.

Is the cause of that "discount" more due to market cap, or due to previous financial market restrictions which result on shipping insurance costs and other premium on Russian trade costs? I tend to see the later one matter much more, and market cap more on political talks and not much matters on actual Russian Hydrocarbons traded prices.

Western financial market sanctions that hit Russian coffers more, than this oil price cap. The West after they have slap and close access to their financial market to Russia, actually has less arsenal left on sanctions effort. This what I have talk before, time to time. Price Cap more on political bravado and less matter to real traded price on Russian Hydrocarbons. The discount that Russia has to beared for their Hydrocarbons export more related to previous Western sanctions, not price cap.

Market mechanism actually has adjusted for Russian trades. Unless West want to sanctions Russian big buyers like India and China, not much else they can do nowdays. They (West) already spent much of their 'economics' arsenal toward Russia.

 

[KipPotapych]

"Oil and gas revenues in the entire January-September period declined by 34.5% to 5.576 trillion roubles, year-on-year."

The above is a quote from the following article from Reuters:

Russian oil and gas budget revenues up 15% in September m/m - official data

The Russian state's oil and gas revenues rose by around 15% in September, month-on-month, to 739.9 billion roubles ($7.44 billion), finance ministry data showed on Wednesday, thanks to a rise in proceeds from the mineral extraction tax.

www.reuters.com

.

So Russian oil and gas exports maybe not quite so rock solid as you have asserted.

I already stated it a few times, I believe: comparing revenue/profit to the last year is completely misleading. A couple of other examples:

Is there pain? Sure. But not nearly as much as the numbers “suggest”. Not the same, but again, the example of oil companies, some of them, whose revenue is down over 50% compared to last year are still raising dividends.

The Russian oil hasn’t been trading below “the cap” since July.

India received Russian oil at an average price of about $86 per barrel, compared to $68.09 per barrel in July and $94 in August 2022 before the cap was imposed, according to Reuters' calculations based on the latest data posted on the Indian Trade Ministry's website.

From:

Russian oil price to India for August hits highest since December

The average price of Russian oil delivered to India in August rose to the highest level since G-7 nations imposed a price cap in December last year, Indian government data showed, indicating narrowing discounts.

www.reuters.com

It’s not like people have many substitutes to choose from.

Edit: I should add that the only reason the price cap was working at the time (when it was introduced) is because it was set above the market rates at that time.

Edit 2: The reality is no one in the developed world is actually interested in cutting the Russian oil supply and very reasonably so because that would bring a substantial amount of hurt to that very world via soaring inflation, further increase of interest rates, likely housing crisis a year or two down the line, and so on. The effect could be pretty catastrophic for our economies. We want the Russian oil to keep flowing and there is nothing we can do about it without significantly hurting ourselves. As it is, the recent elections basically everywhere in Europe have shown that the current governments that remain in power do not have the capacity and sufficient public support to implement any real measures to significantly curtail Russian revenue from hydrocarbons.

Ok, last edit, lol: good points in this article:

Russian Oil Price Caps Are Failing a Key Test

Rising oil prices exposed flaws in the Russian oil price caps. Russia has discounted its oil, but mainly because of embargoes rather than price caps, and the market has found ways to game the system. Tougher sanctions enforcement is possible but challenging.

www.csis.org

 

[seaspear]

Ukraine's War Evolution: Zaluzhniy's Path Forward - YouTube

I found this article by the Ukrainian general perhaps more informative ,its almost impossible to get accurate unbiased accounts of this war easily most posts are either biased towards one side or the other

 

[seaspear]

I already stated it a few times, I believe: comparing revenue/profit to the last year is completely misleading. A couple of other examples:

Is there pain? Sure. But not nearly as much as the numbers “suggest”. Not the same, but again, the example of oil companies, some of them, whose revenue is down over 50% compared to last year are still raising dividends.

The Russian oil hasn’t been trading below “the cap” since July.

India received Russian oil at an average price of about $86 per barrel, compared to $68.09 per barrel in July and $94 in August 2022 before the cap was imposed, according to Reuters' calculations based on the latest data posted on the Indian Trade Ministry's website.

From:

Russian oil price to India for August hits highest since December

The average price of Russian oil delivered to India in August rose to the highest level since G-7 nations imposed a price cap in December last year, Indian government data showed, indicating narrowing discounts.

www.reuters.com

It’s not like people have many substitutes to choose from.

Edit: I should add that the only reason the price cap was working at the time (when it was introduced) is because it was set above the market rates at that time.

Edit 2: The reality is no one in the developed world is actually interested in cutting the Russian oil supply and very reasonably so because that would bring a substantial amount of hurt to that very world via soaring inflation, further increase of interest rates, likely housing crisis a year or two down the line, and so on. The effect could be pretty catastrophic for our economies. We want the Russian oil to keep flowing and there is nothing we can do about it without significantly hurting ourselves. As it is, the recent elections basically everywhere in Europe have shown that the current governments that remain in power do not have the capacity and sufficient public support to implement any real measures to significantly curtail Russian revenue from hydrocarbons.

Ok, last edit, lol: good points in this article:

Russian Oil Price Caps Are Failing a Key Test

Rising oil prices exposed flaws in the Russian oil price caps. Russia has discounted its oil, but mainly because of embargoes rather than price caps, and the market has found ways to game the system. Tougher sanctions enforcement is possible but challenging.

www.csis.org

I believe the sanctions are having the effect of targeting refined oil from Russia which is the most profitable ,the costs of crude unrefined oil being exported provides minimal profit the profit is achieved by those countries importing this crude to their own refineries and either storing or then exporting ,India and China have likely done well out of cheap crude oil

 

[ngatimozart]

WRT to Russian oil export details @Ananda is the expert on here about that.

 

[Ananda]

Russian oil exports hit 11-month low as refinery downtime, output cuts bite

Product exports fall to 10 month low as diesel supply tightens Some Russian fuels exports also trading above price caps Turkey extends its lead as Russia's biggest buyer of products Russian seaborne o

www.spglobal.com

I put the S&P assesment on recent Russian decrease in Output in Early Sept (Thus

1. Refineries decrease mostly related to high maintenance schedules.
2. Crude decrease related to Russia pledges to decrease the output, with other producers.
3. Recent Russian prices already above Western Market caps. That's raise question on Russian abilities to find tankers, however S&P basically believe Russian can find gray market tankers that work beyond Western influences. Thus they will find no problem to ship their hydrocarbon products to their customers in East.

All this just shown how market already make their own adjustment, and Western sanctions already factored in. Thus at this moment they are not matter much toward Russian exports. Market mechanics and technical issues that matter more.

Put this again as seems some in this forum still think highly toward Western sanctions. Especially like Price Cap. This is assessment from S&P (which is definitely not pro Russia but more pro Market) that shown what I have been talks time to time. Market rules more than Politics.

China, India, Turkey, even Saudi got huge uplift on the costs to Russia. However that's costs that Russia willing to take to shift their market from Western customers toward Non Western ones. That's the price for market adjustment.

They are not only buy crudes but also refineries products. Market reeling not too long ago, when Russia keep most of their diesels due to maintenance of most of their refineries. This shown not just crude that being bought by Russian Customers, but market also has still huge appetite for Russian refineries products.

Those refineries products blended to customers own refineries products. Some of them then reexport to the Euro zone and US. Because why? Because all the talk on cutting Russian war coffers has to meet reality toward their own economics and market balance need.

Again despite all the talks on alternative energy, it is still a talk and need more effort from economics POV to done affordable switching.

France Uncovers Massive White Hydrogen Deposit | OilPrice.com

A new discovery of a vast reserve of white hydrogen in France offers a potentially cheaper and more efficient alternative to green hydrogen for the clean energy industry.

oilprice.com

What's the alternative energy? Even now we still don't know which ones going to be dominant one. As some including me already talk in Alternative Energy thread, potentially not one but combination of alternatives. That's also includes even Hydrocarbon, as market still not believe the total change from hydrocarbon can happen.

Hydrogen is being consider by some market analysts and energy companies as potentially big alternatives, as they can be addept to most ICE in land, air and marine transportation. However why I put the article above shown the biggest potential reserve that can create more economics for hydrogen, is also close toward existing hydrocarbon reserves.

Thus this means Russia potentially also going to have huge white hydrogen reserve. Something that much more economics then green hydrogen, and not using hydrocarbon to create like grey hydrogen.

All this shown, whether now or in future Russia still important source for energy and commodities. That kind of sources can't be isolated no matter politics demand. Market say otherwise, and market in the end matter more than politics.

 

[KipPotapych]

Last few days had a pretty substantial amount of “bad news” dumped by various news outlets. “Bad news” is in quotes because I think this isn’t really bad news but reality. To start, there was an article in Time magazine describing Zelensky’s struggles to keep himself and Ukraine relevant, as well as corruption issues, failed counteroffensive, and so on.

Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight

“Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody,” Zelensky told TIME in an interview after his trip to Washington, D.C.

time.com

The author of the article was, of course, later accused by the Ukrainian authorities to be spreading the false claims and Russian propaganda based on the sources that have no present access to current information, etc. To these accusations the author responded by saying that all his sources are currently serving as advisors to the president.

Then, a couple of days later, The Economist publishes an interview with Zaluzhny where the UA main war guy calls the current state of affairs on the battlefield a stalemate. He also says that there will be no “deep and beautiful breakthrough” and confirms the end of the UA counteroffensive. Zaluzhny concludes that the positional warfare or the war of attrition that is currently taking place is benefitting Russia and will eventually, he says, threaten the UA armed forces and the state itself.

According to Zuluzhny, out of the 120 warplanes that the Ukraine had, only 40 remain. However, he also says that the promised F-16 fighters will make no difference due Russian increasingly superior air defence systems.

Finally, the general says that they simply do not have enough manpower and sooner or later will find out that they do not have enough people to fight.

I do not subscribe to The Economist anymore, unfortunately, and was waiting for a few days for the entire article to be reposted somewhere as it often happens, but to no avail. So all of the above was pieced together from various sources making partial quotes and references to the original. To provide a source, this one I think talks more or less about everything mentioned above (I intentionally left other parts quoted elsewhere else out of my post):

Ukrainian commander-in-chief admits the war against Russia is at a stalemate

Valerii Zaluzhnyi predicts that there will be no progress for at least a year and has compared the situation at the front to World War I

english.elpais.com

Surprisingly, the rebuttal didn’t come from Zelensky’s office immediately, but it took a couple of days. The first to say something was Mr Zhovkva, deputy head of the office of the UA president. He said that Zaluzhny wasn’t supposed to be talking about the stalemate and the situation on the battlefield as this information is supposed to be secret, and so on. According to him, Zaluzhny’s interview raised panic in the governments of the Western world. I am going to cite a Russian (reliable) outlet as a source here (I read it in the UA outlet, but do not want to look for it at the moment):

Офис президента Украины раскритиковал Залужного за слова о тупике в конфликте

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

Interviewed by CNN unit commander seems to agree with Zaluzhny’s assessment (the srticle also mentions Zhovkva’s comments outlined above):

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/04/europe/ukrainians-face-prolonged-war-with-russia-in-stalemate-intl/index.html

Similar interviews by other outlets are the same, really.

Zelensky himself finally announced that the current situation is not a stalemate and more air defences are needed because Russians control the skies.

Ukraine needs more air defenses, war not in stalemate: Zelenskiy

His comments came days after Ukraine's commander-in-chief said the conflict was moving toward a new stage of static and attritional fighting, a phase that could allow Moscow to rebuild its military power.

www.reuters.com

He also said that the situation will be changed when the F-16 jets arrive and the Ukrainian pilots finish the training to operate them (Russian, though reliable, source here again):

Зеленский отказался считать ситуацию на фронте патовой

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

So it appears that there is a pretty clear and stark differences of how the current situation is perceived by the UA president and the command of the UA forces. It also appears that the conflict between Zaluzhny and Zelensky reported by some outlets several months ago now may be a real thing and seems to be quite open now. In my opinion, Zelensky seems to be delusional more and more so.

There were reports many months ago now that Zaluzhny was removed from the media due to the internal political battles, indicating that he was gaining a lot of popularity among the UA public, as well as, and more importantly, the western leaders, etc. Some reports indicated, however, that that was not the case and he was forbidden to provide interviews due to Zelensky not liking what he was saying in those interviews (like that he was, surprisingly, considering Gerasimov to be a the greatest strategists or theoretician that exists today and he has read all his books, etc - the second article cited above touches on it, I believe) and that he was not optimistic enough in what he shared with the media. It does appear now that at least the latter may actually be true.

So to continue with the “bad news” reports, the NBC comes out and says, citing numerous anonymous officials, that the Americans and Europeans started talking, even though broadly for now, about peace negotiations with Russia:

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

According to the article and their sources, Ukraine basically has until the end of the year before the real pressure for peace talks settles in. The article also mentions the concerns in Biden administration in particular about lack of Ukrainian manpower and perspective of another counter offensive next spring at least questionable.

Then there is Arestovich, who comes out and says that he was responsible for drawing a lie of a quick victory over Russia back in the day, but it was done for the survival of the country. Today he says he is breaking that lie apart again for the survival of Ukraine and another half a year of the current “successful” politics (Zelensky’s politics) will void the country of NATO membership and leave only some kind of security guarantees without membership. In a year, even those guarantees will not be offered, but there will be another set of Minsk-like agreements.

Arestovich / Official

- Пересічний гражданин и Офис президента против Залужного, ЕС, США, Арестовича и здравого смысла. Правда, значительная доля ответственности за веру рядового гражданина в нашу быструю и красивую победу лежит на мне лично. Но зато я не бегаю от этой ответственности. Я создал иллюзию в то время...

t.me

There are a few more I was going to share, but I believe this draws the picture pretty well.

 

[Larry_L]

Rheinmetall has sent several of their new air defense systems to Ukraine. Theoretically capable of taking out a small drone with between 1 and 3 of the 35mm rounds, a couple hundred of these would make an impact. It is a good place for testing, and a couple are enough for that.

Air Defense Skyranger and Skynex AA Systems Are Already in Ukraine | Ukraine Travel News

The Skyranger and Skynex AA Systems air defense systems are already in Ukraine, says Rheinmetall CEO in a conversation with Gabor Steingart, a columnist for

www.ukrainetravelnews.com

.

There is a lot going on in the Crimean bridge area the last few days. Russia claims an attack on the bridge yesterday.

https://en.topwar.ru/229582-rossijskaja-pvo-otrazila-massirovannuju-raketnuju-ataku-na-krymskij-most.html

Gerashchenko claims an attack on a missile carrier today. Awaiting confirmation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720842373901562092

There is a report of an attack on the Kahlino airfield.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1720842373901562092

 

[SinisterMinister]

According to the article and their sources, Ukraine basically has until the end of the year before the real pressure for peace talks settles in. The article also mentions the concerns in Biden administration in particular about lack of Ukrainian manpower and perspective of another counter offensive next spring at least questionable.

Then there is Arestovich, who comes out and says that he was responsible for drawing a lie of a quick victory over Russia back in the day, but it was done for the survival of the country. Today he says he is breaking that lie apart again for the survival of Ukraine and another half a year of the current “successful” politics (Zelensky’s politics) will void the country of NATO membership and leave only some kind of security guarantees without membership. In a year, even those guarantees will not be offered, but there will be another set of Minsk-like agreements.

Arestovich / Official

- Пересічний гражданин и Офис президента против Залужного, ЕС, США, Арестовича и здравого смысла. Правда, значительная доля ответственности за веру рядового гражданина в нашу быструю и красивую победу лежит на мне лично. Но зато я не бегаю от этой ответственности. Я создал иллюзию в то время...

t.me

There are a few more I was going to share, but I believe this draws the picture pretty well.

I'll be very curious to see how the next 6 months play out. If the battlefield situation deteriorates there will be a lot of pressure from the West for Zelensky to negotiate, but the window of a reasonable deal may have passed. I would expect that Russia's terms will get progressively more hardline if they feel they have a major military advantage.

 

[KipPotapych]

I'll be very curious to see how the next 6 months play out. If the battlefield situation deteriorates there will be a lot of pressure from the West for Zelensky to negotiate, but the window of a reasonable deal may have passed. I would expect that Russia's terms will get progressively more hardline if they feel they have a major military advantage.

In my opinion, the best deal type of thing was left behind when they wrapped up the negotiations in 2022. I do not see Russia giving up any of their current holdings and there is potential that their territorial gains will only increase. In my opinion the probability of that happening is definitely higher than them losing much ground. And I am not even talking about tens or hundreds of thousands of lives lost to only arrive where they left of. No one can state with certainty, of course, but I believe Russia would give up the territory Ukraine retook last year as a part of the deal. I don’t see how they would give up anything they are currently controlling without being forcefully removed, which clearly isn’t happening.

Zelensky’s interview at NBC:

Full Zelenskyy: ‘We are not ready to give our freedom to this f---ing terrorist Putin’

During an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discusses how the war has changed since Russia invaded Ukraine more than 600 days ago.

www.nbcnews.com

Did he just say that the Russians cut heads off children? Yes, yes he did.

I am not really sure what he is thinking. The ten-point peace plan he keeps bringing up has no relevance to anything of what is going on. He keeps talking about Russia attacking the NATO countries after they “kill all Ukrainians” and Americans having to bring their troops to the fight, of which Russia has no geopolitical or otherwise interest. Neither do they have the capabilities. He keeps denying the corruption that his office is accused of (see the article cited in my previous post). And so on. He talks about questionable 5% GDP growth after the country lost about 50% the year prior. He says he is OK with confiscating the Russian assets abroad without any regard for international and internal legal consequences. He then talks about the $40 billion gap they have in their budget that needs to be filled and says that if the money aren’t donated they would be OK with loans that they would repay after the war. That would be a $40 billion loan in just one year for a country with $160 or so billion GDP. Any reasonable person should realize that the repayment is at the very best questionable. Furthermore, Russia will never let Ukraine prosper if they do not come to terms. This isn’t happening. He also talks about having a frozen conflict in Donbas since 2014-15 and blames Russians for the accords falling apart, while earlier admitting himself that he/Ukraine was never going to follow through on any of it because that was not in their interests. Then he says that they defeated the Russian Black Sea fleet. Just a collection of rubbish, really.

I am not sure if he actually believes what he is saying or he thinks that people he is addressing have below average intelligence. In either case, it is delusion. I understand what he is saying and why, especially in regards to giving up land and no tribunal and whatnot. You can also see and hear he is desperate. But I also think he realizes that the USA has much higher interest snd priorities in the Middle East. In fact, I believe that the Americans have been acting against their best interests in Ukraine for a very long time now under the guise of delusion of victory, which is more or less has now been lifted and the reality needs to settle in sooner or later.

What the solution is I do not know. Implementing Minsk, in my opinion, was clearly the best possible option. The next best was to continue with the negotiations in 2022. The latter would obviously be a complete defeat that he isn’t willing to accept, it seems at any cost. And the cost is astronomical for achieving basically nothing since, losing millions in population, as well as hundreds of thousands in killed and mutilated or otherwise injured and handicapped., the country and its economy in ruins. How do you tell this to people though? The people you have been saying to that the complete victory is just weeks away. Not really sure.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

In my opinion, the best deal type of thing was left behind when they wrapped up the negotiations in 2022. I do not see Russia giving up any of their current holdings and there is potential that their territorial gains will only increase.

Do you think at any point in the past, achieving an agreement involving full Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory was viable? I don't, I don't see how that was possible.
From my observation, Russia's ability to demand things has diminished over time, including throughout 2023.

I am not really sure what he is thinking. The ten-point peace plan he keeps bringing up has no relevance to anything of what is going on. He keeps talking about Russia attacking the NATO countries after they “kill all Ukrainians” and Americans having to bring their troops to the fight, of which Russia has no geopolitical or otherwise interest. Neither do they have the capabilities. He keeps denying the corruption that his office is accused of (see the article cited in my previous post). And so on. He talks about questionable 5% GDP growth after the country lost about 50% the year prior. He says he is OK with confiscating the Russian assets abroad without any regard for international and internal legal consequences. He then talks about the $40 billion gap they have in their budget that needs to be filled and says that if the money aren’t donated they would be OK with loans that they would repay after the war. That would be a $40 billion loan in just one year for a country with $160 or so billion GDP. Any reasonable person should realize that the repayment is at the very best questionable. Furthermore, Russia will never let Ukraine prosper if they do not come to terms. This isn’t happening. He also talks about having a frozen conflict in Donbas since 2014-15 and blames Russians for the accords falling apart, while earlier admitting himself that he/Ukraine was never going to follow through on any of it because that was not in their interests. Then he says that they defeated the Russian Black Sea fleet. Just a collection of rubbish, really.

What CAN he do? Ukraine is a young country that was invaded right when it started working on itself. Every problem that would take a decade to fix was either pushed back out of necessity, or was rushed (with all its consequences) due to the war. Nothing really disappeared. Considering the mess in which Ukraine was when he inherited it, he did fairly well. He alienated some, yes, but managed pull in massive material support. Massive corruption was embedded all around, but he took western advice on rooting it out and there are results. He united a people that didn't really have a national identity before that and gave them a direction. All in all, good performance. Those who understand Ukraine's problems don't need any more convincing. But many still need to hear something other than doom and gloom.

Regarding viability of peace and what each side can demand, Minsk's utter failure is going to be a major factor going forward. Ukraine will have to take into account the fact that any agreement it signs with Russia is just a stepping stone for the next invasion, setting up an arms race throughout the duration. It will have to, on one hand, set up longer term defenses and acquire more advanced western tech, and on the other hand accept that Russia will entrench itself even further as it did in the Donbas to which Ukraine would have a hard time matching a solution considering its focus would have to shift toward building a resilient economy.
One additional factor Ukraine would have to consider is the west's incredibly short memory. As soon as there's a ceasefire, support will quickly wane, the west will want a return on their investment, and Ukraine would have to shell out its own cash on every acquisition.