The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych · Oct 12, 2023

SinisterMinister said:
This is getting tiresome. I am proposing that massive organizations with millions of dollars to spend and the ability to employ experts of every stripe are lazy for using Oryx's numbers without even attempting to verify them themselves, much less create their own database. It's surprising that Oryx is the only person doing this at scale given how much interest there is in the war from both governmental and non-governmental organizations.

As I said previously, I lack the expertise needed to properly identify the many extremely murky photos used. I would not expect random people on the internet to take this on, and I never suggested I would.

Maybe contact the massive organizations with millions of dollars?

In reality, no one cares if the number is 7,234 or 7,412. It is not material. No one is going to spend massive resources to do the count that most don't care about. An average reader doesn’t care if the number is 11,642 or 9,946. Therefore, the media outlets are not going to spent their, I would assume limited, resources on such a counting activity (most probably do not even have sufficient resources or expertise of their own). Why would they? I don’t get it. I also do not even see these numbers from Oryx all too often because there relatively limited amount if people who are interested. Most just want to know who is winning, if that. It is really enthusiasts and “geeks” that care most about the most accurate numbers.

I would personally rather see investigations into alleged war crimes, missile strikes on alleged civilian infrastructure, etc. Which they do to some extent and best of their abilities, in my opinion.

Same goes for various MoDs. Why would they spend their resources counting the number of tanks destroyed in Ukraine and verify every image Oryx posts? They work with Ukrainian MoD that probably provides them with their data, they have their own intel assessments, some based on reports such as Oryx, and make their decisions accordingly. They do not care if the actual number is 8,523 or 8,946. It doesn’t matter.

So, I am not sure I even understand what your gripe is?

Redshift · Oct 12, 2023

SinisterMinister said:
This is getting tiresome. I am proposing that massive organizations with millions of dollars to spend and the ability to employ experts of every stripe are lazy for using Oryx's numbers without even attempting to verify them themselves, much less create their own database. It's surprising that Oryx is the only person doing this at scale given how much interest there is in the war from both governmental and non-governmental organizations.

As I said previously, I lack the expertise needed to properly identify the many extremely murky photos used. I would not expect random people on the internet to take this on, and I never suggested I would.

Can't argue with that, it is indeed tiresome.

Redshift · Oct 12, 2023

Redshift said:
Can't argue with that, it is indeed tiresome.
[/QUOTEspeak to them not us

Redshift · Oct 12, 2023

SinisterMinister said:
This is getting tiresome. I am proposing that massive organizations with millions of dollars to spend and the ability to employ experts of every stripe are lazy for using Oryx's numbers without even attempting to verify them themselves, much less create their own database. It's surprising that Oryx is the only person doing this at scale given how much interest there is in the war from both governmental and non-governmental organizations.

As I said previously, I lack the expertise needed to properly identify the many extremely murky photos used. I would not expect random people on the internet to take this on, and I never suggested I would.

By posting here you are proposing nothing to anyone that has any real say, you are deliberately muddying the waters.

vikingatespam · Oct 12, 2023

SinisterMinister said:
This is getting tiresome.

On this we can agree.

SinisterMinister said:
I am proposing that massive organizations with millions of dollars to spend and the ability to employ experts of every stripe are lazy for using Oryx's numbers without even attempting to verify them themselves

This is an assumption on your part.

SinisterMinister said:
It's surprising that Oryx is the only person doing this at scale

No, Oryx (a "they", its more than one person) is not the only entity doing this. You have been told this already.

SinisterMinister said:
As I said previously, I lack the expertise needed to properly identify the many extremely murky photos used.

Then look at some not murky ones. No one is going to fault you if you cant tell between a T-80 BV and a T-80 BVM. This isnt the point - which is that you, like anyone else, can run photos through easily available online photo forensics programs.

It does no one any good to continue asking for well-funded organizations to perform their own analyses (i.e., reinvent the wheel), then publicly publish that data for no gain for them. Should I ask the NSA to publish their accounting of RU armor losses ?

Feanor · Oct 12, 2023

SinisterMinister said:
This is getting tiresome. I am proposing that massive organizations with millions of dollars to spend and the ability to employ experts of every stripe are lazy for using Oryx's numbers without even attempting to verify them themselves, much less create their own database. It's surprising that Oryx is the only person doing this at scale given how much interest there is in the war from both governmental and non-governmental organizations.

As I said previously, I lack the expertise needed to properly identify the many extremely murky photos used. I would not expect random people on the internet to take this on, and I never suggested I would.

He is clearly not the only one. Others have been quoted here as part of this very conversation...

vikingatespam · Oct 13, 2023

A further claim of another RU naval vessel being damaged:

Supposedly shows a Buyan-M trailing smoke after being damaged (sea drone) ? Im assuming black smoke is bad so this may be something, but as usual, we need some confirmation.

Feanor · Oct 13, 2023

Things are starting to leak out on Avdeevka but there is still no clarity and I haven't seen confirmation of either Russian losses or Russian gains.

A much discussed on Russian social media photo reveals Russian forces riding a BTR-90. This is, contrary to popular opinion, a project that was in fact completed and accepted for service in 2008. It just never went into mass production. A number of LRIP vehicles were produced but how many exactly is debated from "several" to "several dozen". If the number is closer to the latter and they've been kept in relatively good condition, activating them makes sense. In the photo we can only see one. Unit is mentioned as Russia's 114th Bde.

EDIT: This may be the attack on the refuse mound in the north, with the tanks laying down suppression to allow infantry to advance. There are also claims that this is the same unit whose column we saw above getting hit.

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