The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

They didn't change the overall outcome of the war, but they changed events in the short term.

The Navy is just another vector launching missiles, the grain ships are not being attacked by the Navy. More resources to the Navy? , restrained actions? Yes. Attacking the power grid? Yes, that too. The Russian Navy is still going to be there doing things.

Going off topic now.
Not in the short term, but in the long term. In short: the Regia Marina was ineffective (a long discussion here, specially about the convoys), before and after Alexandria, before and after Taranto. The Regia Marina moving north from Taranto made things easier, less enemy capital ships made things easier for the RN. Getting German submarines in the Mediterranean made things more difficult, it did not change things.

 

[vikingatespam]

You're assuming that the west just has Ukraine's best interests at heart and that's all there is to it. The interests involved here are;

1) Russia
2) Ukraine
3) USA
4) EU
5) various states within the EU
6) China
7 Global South sort of led by India

US support might not involve ending the conflict for Ukraine in a good way but instead keeping Russia in an unwinnable meatgrinder to weaken and keep Russia busy.

Whether the slow-roll of western aid is due to this political scheming or a genuine desire to not escalate too quickly, will be left for the historians. I simply cant tell.

 

[rsemmes]

Its not the same if the moral endpoint is different.

IMHO:

RU taking UKR is to expand the empire regardless of what the UKR people want. Lukashenko 2.0
US invading Iraq was to remove Saddam and install something better, and then withdraw, leaving the Iraqis in charge of their destiny.

I see a difference, others may not.

Off-topic.
It was not for the WMD and it was not to deposed a head of state (Looking back, it looks a lot like Putin giving "reasons" for this invasion). Certainly an interesting point to support that not-something-better (our son of a bitch?) when he invaded Iran (after imposing the Shah, the incarnation of democracy). Should we talk about the "made in US" dictators or about the dictatorships not invaded (maybe because they were created by US).
I see the difference, US did it; not morals but business.
We have no friends, we have interests. Kissinger. (Or America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests).

Seven day reply ban for consistent poor quality posts and habit of going off topic. Your posting quality is presently being discussed by the Moderation Team. Further Moderator sanctions may or may not happen, depending upon the outcome of the Moderator discussions.

Ngatimozart.

 

[T.C.P]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/16muaoj
A lancet hit 70km inside Ukraine territory. from later images, the Mig-29 is one of those modifed to carry HARM apparently.

So this begs the question is this a lancet mod with greater range? or was this a lancet launched by Russian forces who had infiltrated inside Ukr territory?
A couple months back there was Russian tv report on the lancet factory that showed the manufacturers claim both newer longer range and smaller shorter range (but more easily deployable) models. Time will tell what this was. But the evolution of the lancet has been quite fascinating.

 

[Feanor]

Update. Interesting tidbits.

A fantastic video. A Ukrainian 2S3 SP Howitzer rolls out from an underground shelter to deliver fires. Russian UAV spots it and calls in an airstrike using a guided gliding bomb. However due to the delay the howitzer is back inside the shelter by the time it lands. On the one hand Russian use of gliding bombs for counter-battery fires indicate their quantity has gotten quite large, and in principle this is a step forward. But it also highlights the limitations of Russian coordination of fires.

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A Russian Lancet-3M strikes a Ukrainian MiG-29 parked at an airfield allegedly ~70kms from the front line. This range is no joke, and the angle of approach is from the Ukrainian side, meaning the UAV likely made a loop possibly to avoid air defenses. The video is part of a pattern of expanding long range strikes by Russia recently. Two trains were hit recently (4th link has footage from one of the trains), then some long range strikes against radars (3rd link is similar range), now against an airfield. On the other hand, there's other aircraft on the video. Why not send a dozen lancets and double tap each jet? Why not drop a small bucket of Iskanders on these scarce and valuable assets? Unclear. Russia claims 5 jets damaged or destroyed on an airfield, and it's possible the other jets were hit by something else.

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First use confirmation of a Russian Mi-28NM strike using Vikhr ATGMs. On the one hand this means more rotary assets join the category of relevant CAS. On the other hand, Mi-28NM are very scarce and brand new. Legacy Mi-28N can't do this.

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Piles of wrecked Ukrainian vehicles near Rabotino. The area is starting to look like the road in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. And it's also a salient that's completely permeable to Russian fires.

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If someone is wondering why Russia is having a hard time holding Andreevka near Artemovsk/Bakhmut, here's a shot of the ruins. The village doesn't really exist anymore. There's nothing left to hold.

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Russian BRDM-2MS in Ukraine. This is an initially export-oriented BRDM-2 variant. It features major improvements in electro-optics, removes the second set of roadwheels, up-armors it, and significant modifies the interior. It's not quite an MRAP by protection, but it's a major step up. The old turret is retained.

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Reportedly one of the Leo-1A5 batches of 10 vehicles was recently rejected by Ukraine due to poor condition. Note at least one batch was delivered already. It takes quite the gall to refuse free tanks, even as donors of spare parts. Presumably Ukraine is hoping they will get repaired and re-delivered in better condition.

Существуют серьезные проблемы с танками Leopard 1A5

Я уже про это говорил - https://t.me/btvt2019/6307 . Как сообщает DER SPIEGEL, существуют серьезные проблемы с танками Leopard 1A5, которые Германия, Дания и Нидерланды поставляют в Украину. Сообщается, что несколько дней назад Украина отказалась от поставки 10 танков Leopard 1A5 из-за их плохого…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

After Jordanian OSA missiles, there are now Jordanian Strela missiles. In my opinion they've been in Ukraine for some time, we saw a desert color Strela-10 photo from a while back. They are similarly of poor quality, old and less effective.

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Ukrainian high-quality decoys from Metinvest. The radars rotate and they're true to life in design and shape. They're basically perfect, meaning it will be very hard to distinguish them moving forward. Cannons firing would be a give-away, and presumably radar emissions would reveal something to Russia, but not to us. Of course positioning the decoy near the real thing would be a very effective way of tricking UAVs since they're looking in the general area.

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A nice high-resolution photograph of a UMPK gliding bomb on a Su-34.

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Красивая картинка - УМПК под крылом "утконоса"

Обратите внимание на "срез" профилей крыла и стабилизатора - трехмерная печать! А альтернативно "одаренные" верещали, что УМПК примитивен - "сварные швы не заполированы!" Нехрена, шванехундам и так сойдет!

afirsov.livejournal.com

A look at ongoing recosntruction efforts in Mariupol'. Note while this effort is clearly notable and commendable, other areas are not so lucky. Severodonetsk-Lisichansk is in bad shape with no real reconstruction effort at work. And I can't help but wonder about small towns and villages like Volnovakha. They're not in the spotlight, likely with minimal reconstruction if any.

Colonelcassad

Как восстанавливают Мариуполь. Очень наглядно.

t.me

Traffic on the Crimean Bridge resumed as of Sep. 14th.

Colonelcassad

Восстановленную ветку Крымского моста сегодня открыли с опережением графика на 1 день. Ремонтники и монтажники большие молодцы. Выдержали поставленные сроки.

t.me

Russia does not intend to rotate mobilized personnel. They will apparently serve until the end of the war, with vacation every 6 months. This suggests a second mobilization wave is less likely, and presumably it means Russia anticipates some sort of end to the war. Though what that would look like is unclear.

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[rsemmes]

This is an old post.
Europe/US should have taken strong actions against Russia a long time ago, in particular they should have reacted much more strongly to what happened during the Chechen war, and also what happened in Syria later on.

I wonder if Europe should have reacted much more strongly to what happened during the Vietnam war. An educated guess, as we have been doing politics by other means for some time now, would be that "what happened in Syria" was happening in Yemen too (and in 1973 too), what "strong action should Europa/US had taken against Saudi Arabia? (Besides selling weapons to KSA).
In what parallel universe is US going to take strong actions against KSA no matter what they do?

Even Northern Ireland was mentioned, I can bring more than a few examples of "whataboutism" by Her Majesty's Government and by the British Army about killing British Citizens on British soil (strongly supported by the British press); Catholic British citizens.
(Completely off-topic too).

 

[Feanor]

Interesting tidbits part 2.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russia took out a key bridge in Kupyansk and two other smaller bridges across the Oskol. This would be in line with Russian efforts to prepare for a push into the town, and reportedly larger gliding bombs saw their combat debut here. If Russia can destroy all the crossings they can repeat what Russia did in Kherson region albeit on a smaller scale. There are also unconfirmed reports of a Russia push across the Oskol north of Dvurechnaya. Which of course raises questions, why not just enter from the Russian side of the border?

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Colonelcassad

⚡️В Купянске взорван центральный мост через Оскол Также вчера ударами авиации выведены из строя переправы в населенных пунктах Невское и Макеевка. Переправы использовались для переброски резервов ВСУ на сватовском и купянском направлениях. @ukrainian_guide PS. Файтербомбер прозрачно...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Весьма интересные новости с Купянского направления. Военкор Марат Хайруллин сообщает, что российские войска внезапным для противника ударом форсировали Оскол на фронте шириной 4 километра и образовали плацдарм к северу от Двуречной. Идут бои за расширение плацдарма. Расширение плацдарма создаст...

t.me

According to lostarmour 106 M777s have been hit or destroyed, with 22 more where the results of the strike are unclear. Over 50% of the supplied inventory has been taken out, though no doubt many are repairable.

Потери 155-мм гаубиц M777 ВСУ

lostarmour.info

For FPV drone strikes the month of August set a new record for Russia, with 347 documented strikes. August also saw a very large number of Lancet strikes, namely 124 documented, though this is a slightly lower number then July, partially due to more limited Ukrainian offensive efforts, but partially no doubt due to stockpile depletion. I think September figures will tell us more about how much of the massive spike was a result in improved production and how much was a saved up stockpile.

Применение FPV-дронов российскими войсками

lostarmour.info

Применение барражирующих боеприпасов "Ланцет" в зоне СВО

lostarmour.info

Last but not least, many have speculated about Chinese support for Russia. Well... it appears the support isn't coming. There are reports coming in from Russia that recent Chinese restrictions on UAV export have hurt traditional suppliers to Russian volunteer organizations working with the military as well as irregular formations. The extent of the impact is not immediately obvious and some of it constitutes delays rather then total cessation of supplies, but it's having an impact.

Китайские ограничения на экспорт БЛА создают проблемы для России

Как сообщила газета Коммерсантъ в материале Айгуль Абдуллиной Беспилотники не долетают до России. Ограничения Китая привели к перебоям с поставками дронов и комплектующих , введенные властями КНР ограничения на экспорт беспилотных летательных аппаратовсерьезно осложнили…

bmpd.livejournal.com

 

[KipPotapych]

For FPV drone strikes the month of August set a new record for Russia, with 347 documented strikes. August also saw a very large number of Lancet strikes, namely 124 documented, though this is a slightly lower number then July, partially due to more limited Ukrainian offensive efforts, but partially no doubt due to stockpile depletion. I think September figures will tell us more about how much of the massive spike was a result in improved production and how much was a saved up stockpile.

Применение FPV-дронов российскими войсками

lostarmour.info

Применение барражирующих боеприпасов "Ланцет" в зоне СВО

lostarmour.info

Last but not least, many have speculated about Chinese support for Russia. Well... it appears the support isn't coming. There are reports coming in from Russia that recent Chinese restrictions on UAV export have hurt traditional suppliers to Russian volunteer organizations working with the military as well as irregular formations. The extent of the impact is not immediately obvious and some of it constitutes delays rather then total cessation of supplies, but it's having an impact.

Китайские ограничения на экспорт БЛА создают проблемы для России

Как сообщила газета Коммерсантъ в материале Айгуль Абдуллиной Беспилотники не долетают до России. Ограничения Китая привели к перебоям с поставками дронов и комплектующих , введенные властями КНР ограничения на экспорт беспилотных летательных аппаратовсерьезно осложнили…

bmpd.livejournal.com

This post by Rozhin claims that this “facility” alone produces 1K FPV drones per month. Of course, we do not know if this number is true (rather how exaggerated it is?). We (or I?) also don’t know how many similar “facilities” are out there. I have seen a few videos from places that look significantly different from one another to conclude that they are actually different places, but how many are out there and what is the total output remains a question.

Colonelcassad

Работа цеха по производству FPV. Ежемесячный объем - 1000 штук. Существенную часть работ обеспечивают читатели канала. Текущий сбор на дроны тут https://t.me/boris_rozhin/97966

t.me

I also wonder, what is the percentage of these strikes that are successful? Many has got to be missing their targets, some are taken down, fly out of range, simply break down in flight, etc. Even some of those videos posted that end with a pause on the target followed by a loss of signal do not look like the drone actually ends up hitting the target after the fact. That is especially true for moving targets. In fact, it seems that at times, there is intentionally no “confirmation” from an observing drone. Or maybe it is my distrust to most of what I see and “I’ll believe it when I actually see it”, type of thing. I don’t recall at the moment, but I will try to find the source to the claim (did I read it from something already posted here?) that the Ukrainian equivalents have a success rate of 10-15%, but Russians are substantially ahead in this department. The claim also was that Russian production of these birds is significantly higher than Ukrainian. The latter is also mind boggling in a way because of obvious reasons, such as sanctions, western support, 3D printing equipment must be more accessible to Ukraine than to Russia, and so on. I guess most of the parts likely come from China regardless, which still does not eliminate the head scratcher.

A Russian Lancet-3M strikes a Ukrainian MiG-29 parked at an airfield allegedly ~70kms from the front line. This range is no joke, and the angle of approach is from the Ukrainian side, meaning the UAV likely made a loop possibly to avoid air defenses. The video is part of a pattern of expanding long range strikes by Russia recently. Two trains were hit recently (4th link has footage from one of the trains), then some long range strikes against radars (3rd link is similar range), now against an airfield. On the other hand, there's other aircraft on the video. Why not send a dozen lancets and double tap each jet? Why not drop a small bucket of Iskanders on these scarce and valuable assets? Unclear. Russia claims 5 jets damaged or destroyed on an airfield, and it's possible the other jets were hit by something else.

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I am assuming this is the same strike:

Colonelcassad

Кадры поражения одного из самолетов противника на аэродроме Долгинцево в районе Кривого Рога. Машина получила серьезные повреждения носовой части и кабины. Ранее МО РФ сообщало, об уничтожении на этом аэродроме 2 МиГ-29 и 3 Су-25. Как не трудно заметить на видео, противник здесь даже не скрывал...

t.me

Sorry, I do not like VK or reddit (that wants to me to download the app, which I do not want).

Your questions are basically what I was thinking on the subject. Even better, why are there airfields that appear to be in “pristine” conditions, given the circumstances, in the first place? I mean Russians had a pile of tires on their airplane at the base (from some recent (or not so recent) video) that is much further away from the frontline. Here we have a number of jets parked as if nothing is going on. To boot, they are also observed by a Russian drone recording the strike (not as bad as one hoovering over a S300 or S400 (depending on whose claims one believes) a few weeks ago in Crimea, but still). Some of the things that are happening can really make a guy scratch his head. This guy’s head is not educated enough on the matters, I guess is the limitation I should mention/disclose.

Edit: forgot to add on a separate note:

Corruption accusations continue to plague top Zelenskiy aides

Billions of dollars of aid earmarked for Ukraine's government, as well as ambitions to join the European Union, ride on the country proving that it is serious about fighting corruption and embracing good governance.

www.reuters.com

Edit 2: well, that was easy - the source to the 10-15% success rate of the Ukrainian FPV use mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1702090961168269675

 

[T.C.P]

Sorry, I do not like VK or reddit (that wants to me to download the app, which I do not want).

The reddit app is shit. Use it on the browser but use old reddit.

For eg this is the normal browser reddit link -

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

from here just delete "www" and put "old" instead and you get this

The back page of the internet. • r/soccer

The football subreddit. News, results, and discussion about the beautiful game.

old.reddit.com

Much more navigable.

For this conflict for pro Ukr videos

go here-

• r/CombatFootage

A forum for combat footage and photos from historical to ongoing wars.

old.reddit.com

for Russian POV videos go here-

Ukraine/Russia War Report • r/UkraineRussiaReport

Community driven reporting on the ongoing war in Ukraine - Videos, photos, discussions, this subreddit aims to cover both sides of the narrative...

old.reddit.com

For your sanity I will recommend that you avoid going into the comment section of either subs.

For meaningful discussion with decent moderation go to the daily megathreads of this sub-

Strategy, History, Procurement, International Politics, National Defense, Intelligence • r/CredibleDefense

This is a forum dedicated to civil and informed discussion of military and defense issues and to bring better public understand of related topics....

old.reddit.com

 

[KipPotapych]

Was making a post in the other thread but his belongs here:

One major concern has been a shortage of 155mm artillery rounds, with Kyiv firing up to 10,000 of these shells per day.

From: Rising ammunition prices set back NATO efforts to boost security, official says

The latest package from Germany

The focus of the package is on ammunition. Germany will supply Ukraine with 30,000 155 mm projectiles, nearly 3,800 smoke shells for 155 mm artillery systems, 105,000 120 mm tank projectiles, as well as 480 AT-2 projectiles for multiple-launch rocket systems.

I read it elsewhere, but here is the first Google search results that talks about it for a source: Germany reveals details of new €400 million military aid package for Ukraine

So a few days worth? Looking at the latest supplies, these are becoming rare.

 

[KipPotapych]

The reddit app is shit. Use it on the browser but use old reddit.

For eg this is the normal browser reddit link -

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

from here just delete "www" and put "old" instead and you get this

The back page of the internet. • r/soccer

The football subreddit. News, results, and discussion about the beautiful game.

old.reddit.com

Much more navigable.

For this conflict for pro Ukr videos

go here-

• r/CombatFootage

A forum for combat footage and photos from historical to ongoing wars.

old.reddit.com

for Russian POV videos go here-

Ukraine/Russia War Report • r/UkraineRussiaReport

Community driven reporting on the ongoing war in Ukraine - Videos, photos, discussions, this subreddit aims to cover both sides of the narrative...

old.reddit.com

For your sanity I will recommend that you avoid going into the comment section of either subs.

For meaningful discussion with decent moderation go to the daily megathreads of this sub-

Strategy, History, Procurement, International Politics, National Defense, Intelligence • r/CredibleDefense

This is a forum dedicated to civil and informed discussion of military and defense issues and to bring better public understand of related topics....

old.reddit.com

Thanks for the tips. Greatly appreciated.

 

[Redshift]

Off-topic.
It was not for the WMD and it was not to deposed a head of state (Looking back, it looks a lot like Putin giving "reasons" for this invasion). Certainly an interesting point to support that not-something-better (our son of a bitch?) when he invaded Iran (after imposing the Shah, the incarnation of democracy). Should we talk about the "made in US" dictators or about the dictatorships not invaded (maybe because they were created by US).
I see the difference, US did it; not morals but business.
We have no friends, we have interests. Kissinger. (Or America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests).

Past failings and military interventions of the USA, the UK, Russia, or any other country East, West or South cannot be changed as they are in the past.

None of these things change, alter, lessen or justify Russia's (or the West's) current or future operations.

All they do is offer an opportunity to not talk about the present, they are a (deliberate) diversion to try and and alter the basis of current present day problems.

 

[rsemmes]

Past failings and military interventions of the USA, the UK, Russia, or any other country East, West or South cannot be changed as they are in the past.

None of these things change, alter, lessen or justify Russia's (or the West's) current or future operations.

All they do is offer an opportunity to not talk about the present, they are a (deliberate) diversion to try and and alter the basis of current present day problems.

As long as everyone here understand that.
This is this war, another war but this war.

 

[Egede]

Past failings and military interventions of the USA, the UK, Russia, or any other country East, West or South cannot be changed as they are in the past.

None of these things change, alter, lessen or justify Russia's (or the West's) current or future operations.

All they do is offer an opportunity to not talk about the present, they are a (deliberate) diversion to try and and alter the basis of current present day problems.

Oh, sweep it under the carpet so we forget it ever happened. But the reality is this, imperial US gaining ground in old imperial Russia’s backyard. The US can have interest that needs to be protected all the way in Ukraine and Russia shouldn’t have any interest to protect just across her border. The Russians are not having it anymore

 

[John Fedup]

Oh, sweep it under the carpet so we forget it ever happened. But the reality is this, imperial US gaining ground in old imperial Russia’s backyard. The US can have interest that needs to be protected all the way in Ukraine and Russia shouldn’t have any interest to protect just across her border. The Russians are not having it anymore

I think it is time for the ignore button, you are getting tiresome.

 

[vikingatespam]

Oh, sweep it under the carpet so we forget it ever happened. But the reality is this, imperial US gaining ground in old imperial Russia’s backyard. The US can have interest that needs to be protected all the way in Ukraine and Russia shouldn’t have any interest to protect just across her border. The Russians are not having it anymore

What are you talking about ?!? The US didnt instigate this war into happening. UKR wanted to edge towards the EU, RU wasnt happy about that. Simple as that.

 

[Redshift]

Oh, sweep it under the carpet so we forget it ever happened. But the reality is this, imperial US gaining ground in old imperial Russia’s backyard. The US can have interest that needs to be protected all the way in Ukraine and Russia shouldn’t have any interest to protect just across her border. The Russians are not having it anymore

Utter bullshit

 

[Feanor]

What are you talking about ?!? The US didnt instigate this war into happening. UKR wanted to edge towards the EU, RU wasnt happy about that. Simple as that.

More so some people within Ukraine wanted to. Representatives of those people overthrew the government and put in two unelected politicians with right-wing affiliations that promptly escalated internal friction with protesters into a full blown crisis. Russian reaction to this was to support the protesters against the new unelected government, and to subsequently grab Crimea and back armed rebels in the south-east. Countries aren't singular black-box entities. They're not people. Some people within a country want one thing, some want another. Who gets to make the decision is a political question.

 

[swerve]

More so some people within Ukraine wanted to. Representatives of those people overthrew the government and put in two unelected politicians with right-wing affiliations that promptly escalated internal friction with protesters into a full blown crisis. Russian reaction to this was to support the protesters against the new unelected government, and to subsequently grab Crimea and back armed rebels in the south-east. Countries aren't singular black-box entities. They're not people. Some people within a country want one thing, some want another. Who gets to make the decision is a political question.

There have been elections since then, & Zelensky had a massive majority.

 

[KipPotapych]

There have been elections since then, & Zelensky had a massive majority.

Promising to bring peace and end the conflict and get rid of corruption. If you watch him talk to the constituents back in the day, he was a different person back then. People voted for that person with those aims. I’d bet my arm he would fail miserably if what is going on today was even a remote possibility.

His landslide victory also should reveal what general population thought of those who came to power during the illegal coup, that was OK with us, by the way.