Arms race: Greece & Turkey

[fantasma]

Big-E ,

About the arms race, yes its a bad thing but while Greece has only Turkey to worry about, Turkey is facing a boiling Middle East and dangerously arming Iran, the capabilities that comes with JSF will null the threat posed by Su27/30s that have started flying in Middle Eastern skies.. They are more troublesome than the Greek F-16s and M-2005s..

Dear Beleg do you have any info about Syrias and Irans airforce in numbers and types? I think their airforces are much inferior than this of Turkey mostly in numbers of third generation a/c technology and quality of pilot skills..Su 27/30 think they are excellent airframes but what about their numbers?? There are some MIG 29s but i think no big deal..figures for Su 27/30 maybe for both airforces are less than 50 around 40..

 

[Big-E]

Turkey is facing a boiling Middle East and dangerously arming Iran, the capabilities that comes with JSF will null the threat posed by Su27/30s that have started flying in Middle Eastern skies.. They are more troublesome than the Greek F-16s and M-2005s..

You think IIAF is a match for current TAF? Thats silly!:lol2 I can buy NATO interoperability but Turkey is stronger than any country in the region. Turkey is more than a match for Syria and especially Iran.

 

[beleg]

Turkeys defence doctrine is not based on fighting one one front. The doctrine is based on fighting on 2.5 fronts, thus Turkey must maintain both in quality and quantity a superior force compared to her neighbors. We netiher take just Greece nor Iran when we calculate the riscs, we sum it up ..

Today Iran might have rather a weakened airforce but that might change soon.

Besides i dont understand how you assumed IIAF is a match for Turkey. I never said so. Below i sum up again what i said.

There is a boiling and more than ever troublesome Middle East,
Iran is dangerously arming (nukes?, new airframes,TBMs)
And unlike before when we had to face only Mig-29s now they are introducing Su-27 series aircraft(although today limited in numbers).

We can expect the numbers to be greater in 2020s.

Ofcourse EF-2000 can easily deal with those planes above (while F-16 cannot) but JSF will bring an extreme upperhand, thus being very deterrent.

The region has been witnessing the arms race for decades. I dont understand why you guys start talking about it now. F-35 is no magic weapon that guarantees to win a war and its available for sale for Greece as well..

 

[contedicavour]

JSFs will start being built in the early 2010s.
With some luck we'll assemble in NW Italy JSFs for several countries (including the Dutch JSFs). So if Greece is interested there are good chances we could assemble locally, and involve Hellenic Aerospace industries to the project as sub-contractors.
However, since we're talking about planes operational in 2015 approx, and since in the meanwhile there are several types of aircrafts needing replacement, then the Typhoon deal makes perfect sense.
If Greece can maintain all the planes Fantasma listed above, it can well live with Typhoon and JSF (especially if both are assembled next door in Italy).

Regarding Turkey, with its huge number of F16s, it has a much more uniform air force. Its industry will surely try also to obtain local assembly for JSF as of 2015, so here it may be more difficult to make a case for Typhoon AND JSFs. Still, relying on only one model which will be fully operational in 2015-2020 may be quite a dangerous bet (for example you risk block obsolescence of your air force if you buy replacements all in one go).

cheers

 

[beleg]

The problem is Greece cannot retire the F-16s(3 block , 2 engines) and M2005 before 2030s earliest. With the current number of planes Greece will need much less 4/5th gen fighter so it will be un efficient to divide the orders in to 2 planes. However Greece has dont it in the past so ofcourse they can choose to do so again.

Turkish problem is that if somehow F-16s are grounded from engine problem all airforce activities are done for . I dont think Turkey is interested in local assembly. We are after gaining some sort of control over software to integrate local stand off weapons being developed and the EW suites/libraries that local industry has spent so many years of effort in developing.. Dont know what we can gain out of this deal tho. Time will tell..

 

[contedicavour]

The problem is Greece cannot retire the F-16s(3 block , 2 engines) and M2005 before 2030s earliest. With the current number of planes Greece will need much less 4/5th gen fighter so it will be un efficient to divide the orders in to 2 planes. However Greece has dont it in the past so ofcourse they can choose to do so again.

Turkish problem is that if somehow F-16s are grounded from engine problem all airforce activities are done for . I dont think Turkey is interested in local assembly. We are after gaining some sort of control over software to integrate local stand off weapons being developed and the EW suites/libraries that local industry has spent so many years of effort in developing.. Dont know what we can gain out of this deal tho. Time will tell..

I'm surprised Turkey wouldn't want local assembly. If I'm not wrong you are already doing local assembly for F16s, and you could become the regional center for assembly of JSFs for, say, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, ...
Although if you don't do it, we aren't complaining since it increases our chances of having a big load of work in Italy on our assembly line.
Regarding the software and EW suites, good luck, as even the British seem to be having a hard time to controlling this, despite being top level partners in this programme.
cheers

 

[Big-E]

Iyou could become the regional center for assembly of JSFs for, say, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, ...

Don't you mean EFs...

 

[contedicavour]

Don't you mean EFs...

Well actually they could assemble Typhoons as well if they bought enough, but my point was on local assembly of JSFs.
There will be 2 or 3 assembly factories in Europe, one more in Turkey in exchange for 120+ orders (to start with) wouldn't be such a bad deal from an economic point of view at least.

cheers

 

[fantasma]

Turkeys defence doctrine is not based on fighting one one front. The doctrine is based on fighting on 2.5 fronts, thus Turkey must maintain both in quality and quantity a superior force compared to her neighbors. We netiher take just Greece nor Iran when we calculate the riscs, we sum it up ..

Dear Beleg i guess that the 2.5 Doctrine is kind of exaggerating threats..correct me if i'm wrong but if i remember well at a previous post you mentioned that Greece is not considered as a threat..well are we included in this 2.5 defence Doctrine or not??? you also maybe forget that Turkey is a NATO member so if Iran makes a move against Turkey the outcome is that Nato will assist immmediately Turkey..every member state is obligated to assist the Nato member which is under attack..even Greece will sent forces to assist due to its obligation as a member state..so i dont't think there is such a stupid state to provoke a war against the whole Nato..so in this case Turkey won't fight on her own..the ONLY case that Turkey will have to deal alone is in possible conflict with Greece (i hope will never confront each other)..A very far scenario is to have war with Greece and by the same time Syrians Iranians and Kurdish separatists to consist a threat to the eastern flanks of Turkey, and this maybe the only case that this 2.5 Doctrine has a reason to exist and maybe come reality..This Doctrine shows that it can only be fulfilled when a war occures on the Aegean Front (just take a look of all scenarios)..and to my opinion Turkish General Staff is preparing with its acquisitions in every level to that possibility..

 

[beleg]

Fantasma yes the doctrine is old but its still active. Maybe Greece is not seen as a major threat anymore like those days but as long as the problems in Aegan and Cyprus exist both countries will still see each other as a threat. Lets not cheat on each other here , like our politicians cheat on us by playing zembediko or ciftetelli. I think Greece is now way down in the list even below Iran.

OTOH take a look at Greece. She had a deal with EADS to acquire EF-2000 before the olympic games. And no one in Turkey did complain or talk about it. EF-2000 would disturb the balance in the Aegean as well had it already entered Greek service. Even now i believe Greece might have a 4th gen aircraft thats much more capable than CCIP F-16s of THK and i dont complain about this since i dont see it possible for Greece to declare war against us.

You got AIP subs, planning to acquire 4 brand new Frigates, got a really strong Artillary and Armored force as well as antitank helos.. Maybe the only thing you lack is transport helos for which you plan to buy NH-90..

I dont see Greece being in a bad situation with the current armed forces status and the future procurements..

 

[swerve]

I'm surprised Turkey wouldn't want local assembly. If I'm not wrong you are already doing local assembly for F16s, and you could become the regional center for assembly of JSFs for, say, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, ...

Turkish assembly of F-16s finished some years ago. I think the last Egyptian F-16 order had to be filled from the USA, as the Turkish production line had closed.

BTW, I'm not at all sure there will be more than the Italian JSF assembly line in Europe. The UK hasn't expressed an interest in one, being interested only in maintenance & upgrade ability, & BAe has US facilities, so doesn't care about UK assembly.

 

[contedicavour]

Turkish assembly of F-16s finished some years ago. I think the last Egyptian F-16 order had to be filled from the USA, as the Turkish production line had closed.

BTW, I'm not at all sure there will be more than the Italian JSF assembly line in Europe. The UK hasn't expressed an interest in one, being interested only in maintenance & upgrade ability, & BAe has US facilities, so doesn't care about UK assembly.

Thanks for these elements - I didn't know the Turkish assembly line had closed already.
I understand BAE may handle production and assembly in their American factories, but since our assembly line is supposed to employ 10,000 specialized engineers and technicians over 30+ years, I'm astonished other European countries don't seize the opportunity. Especially in continental Europe with the obsession to increase employment in high technology industries.

cheers

 

[DC@KIll]

I think that we have recognised that getting an assembly line would be real difficult, as I remember while back, the US and Lockheed-Martin were not inclining towards a second assembly line.

What we're after is more offsets, for production of components, ideally more hi-tech components. As much knowledge we could acquire for a better national aerospace industry. Tied with this is the issue of tech transfer and software, as we are/would like to developing our own missiles and EW suites and integrating into the F-35.

 

[swerve]

Thanks for these elements - I didn't know the Turkish assembly line had closed already.
I understand BAE may handle production and assembly in their American factories, but since our assembly line is supposed to employ 10,000 specialized engineers and technicians over 30+ years, I'm astonished other European countries don't seize the opportunity. Especially in continental Europe with the obsession to increase employment in high technology industries.

cheers

But who else is buying enough? The Italian line depends on assembling Dutch as well as Italian JSFs, & is touting for assembly of other European JSFs. What room does that leave for other lines?

Setting up a line for assembly of just one countrys order would add a huge amount to the cost.

 

[contedicavour]

But who else is buying enough? The Italian line depends on assembling Dutch as well as Italian JSFs, & is touting for assembly of other European JSFs. What room does that leave for other lines?

Setting up a line for assembly of just one countrys order would add a huge amount to the cost.

I agree with you. It's only that still recently European governments have taken very uneconomic decisions to defend their local defence industries... so more than happy to hear some good sense is now appearing !

cheers

 

[beleg]

Turkey Shortlists Denel, AgustaWestland for $2B Helicopter Contest

By BURAK EGE BEKDIL, ANKARA

The South African and Italian contenders have advanced in the contest to build 50 attack helicopters for Turkey, a contract worth more than $2 billion, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said.
The Ankara government will continue talks with Denel Aviation, Pretoria, maker of the CSH-2 Rooivalk, and AgustaWestland, Cascina Costa, Italy, maker of the Mangusta A129 International, for its attack helicopter program.
“We will hold simultaneous talks with both companies,” Gonul told reporters after a meeting of the country’s Defense Industry Executive Committee, which oversees top procurement decisions. “Our assessment will continue on the basis of both the price and technical capabilities.”
Members of the committee, chaired by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are Gonul, General Staff chief Gen. Hilmi Ozkok and Murad Bayar, Turkey’s chief procurement official.
The Turkish decision means that EADS subsidiary Eurocopter, maker of the Tiger, and Russia’s Kamov, maker of the Ka-50/2 Black Shark, have been disqualified from the competition.
AgustaWestland’s A129 Mangusta, the first attack helicopter wholly produced in Europe, was designed in 1978 for the Italian Army, which remains its sole user. Its A129 export version, developed later, so far has not scored any export success. In the anti-armor role, the A129 can carry either Hellfire or TOW missiles, or a mixture of both. For the anti-aircraft role, it can be armed with Stinger or Mistral missiles.
Developed in the 1990s, Denel Aviation’s AH-2 Rooivalk is used by the South African Air Force and so far has not been exported. It can carry Mokopa long-range anti-armor missiles and Mistral air-to-air missiles.
Turkey’s plan to buy scores of attack helicopters dates back to the mid-1990s, but efforts so far have come to nothing. Turkey’s new attack helicopter program for up to 50 platforms was launched after a similar project failed last year.
In that now-defunct program, Turkey in 2000 selected Bell to co-produce 50 AH-1Z King Cobras. But after four years of talks failed because of disputes on price, technology transfer and licensing problems, Ankara in May 2004 canceled the whole process, opting to launch a new international tender.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=1921323&C=europe

as above

 

[contedicavour]

The Agusta A129 is a very cost efficient bird, providing the same anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities as the more expensive Tigers. 2 of our Army regiments use them (we've got 60 A129) as spearheads of our rapid deployment brigade "Friuli". This brigade has used them in several NATO or allied events, from Poland to Egypt.
It would be just about time it started winning some international procurement contests, let's hope

cheers

 

[fylr71]

Fantasma yes the doctrine is old but its still active. Maybe Greece is not seen as a major threat anymore like those days but as long as the problems in Aegan and Cyprus exist both countries will still see each other as a threat. Lets not cheat on each other here , like our politicians cheat on us by playing zembediko or ciftetelli. I think Greece is now way down in the list even below Iran.

OTOH take a look at Greece. She had a deal with EADS to acquire EF-2000 before the olympic games. And no one in Turkey did complain or talk about it. EF-2000 would disturb the balance in the Aegean as well had it already entered Greek service. Even now i believe Greece might have a 4th gen aircraft thats much more capable than CCIP F-16s of THK and i dont complain about this since i dont see it possible for Greece to declare war against us.

You got AIP subs, planning to acquire 4 brand new Frigates, got a really strong Artillary and Armored force as well as antitank helos.. Maybe the only thing you lack is transport helos for which you plan to buy NH-90..

I dont see Greece being in a bad situation with the current armed forces status and the future procurements..

Won't the JSF outclass the EF-2000 when it enters service. Also, Greece hasn't even confirmed the purchase of the EF-2000 whereas Turkey has already contributed about $175 million to the JSF project and plans to purchase 70-100 aircraft. In 2009 Greece will still be recieving deliveries of the F-16C block 52, the aircraft which the JSF is supposed to replace. Although the F-16C block 52 is no doubt a great aircraft, it is still inferior to the JSF. Therefore in the air at least Greece will be at a disadvantage in about 5 years. Currently however the two contries are evenly matched in the air

 

[beleg]

@contedicavour

I think the rooivalk has better chance (not politically tho) than mangusta. They are offereing a really interesting partnership offer and their price tag is %30 cheaper than mangusta.. The tech transfer offer for smart artillary shells and missiles (umkhonto an mokopa) is also extermely interesting for Turkey.

The only problem is Eurocopter had interestingly withdrawn their support from the platform last week (very dirty move) and Turkey has experienced problems in the Cougars using same engine..

@flyr71
Well i am not an expert but JSF is supposed to be better at both BVR and Strike missions against conventional targets. However with its supercruise abilites and huge missile load, which includes meteor, EF-2000 is an enemy to be reckoned both in BVR and dogfight range. It will also have a good strike capability.

Being a partner in design and development phase of JSF Project doesnt necessarily mean you will buy the airplane. Its not a purchase contract but rather a development project.

If Greece buys EF-2000 she can receive the deliveries by 2010 and make the plane operational by 2011 at least 5 years before THK introduces F-35 (2015+). However then they have to wait quite long to introduce F-35.. Which will nullify their superiority gained by EF-2000..

 

[fantasma]

According to sources released on the press last weekend the announcement of the empae will take place on 11th of July from the KYSEA after a meeting including defence minister, foreign minister, minister of national economy and the Prime Minister..there were info that 20 out of 25 M.2000-5 will be delivered and fully operational until the end of current year and the delay of the acceptance may was for financial reasons..meaning that a fully operational squadron of Mirage 2000-5 will be added this year on HAF arsenal giving quality advantage(combo Mirage 2000-5 MICA missile for BVR- SCALP EG air to ground missile 250 NM range giving sub strategic ability to HAF..there was also an article dont remember the newspaper saying that there is a scenario for the EPA not to go for a 4rth gen. aircraft to add 10 to 20 more f16 blk 52+ and 10 more brand new Mirage 2000-5 and upgrade the rest of Mirage 2000 fleet to -5 level..and go later for a 5th gen aircraft (maybe JSF)..all this just a scenario of the specific newspaper..there are also speculations that Navy leadership is favourable of the Deutch Frigates and the Airforce leadership plus pilots are favourable of the Rafale and the French choice..
Cheers, Chris