Arms race: Greece & Turkey

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ComSec

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Thanks orko_8!
I am aware of the above mentioned link. I agree with you - substantial investment in C4ISTAR but i think if we look a bit further situation is not that good in both TAF and HAF. If we compare the TASMUS or even the Gr equivalent HERMES with US, French, German or other tactical level systems they clearly lag in capabilities and extend of deployment within command structure. Just to give an indication a modern brigade is today fielding around 2000-2500 units of CNR (HF, VHF, UHF) in all configurations. Both Turkey and Greece with sizeable conscript armies are not likely to reach such numbers with the current levels of investment. In the end the issue is how much money are you prepared to spend in the low tactical levels. Would like to hear your thoughts.
 

orko_8

New Member
ComSec said:
Thanks orko_8!
I am aware of the above mentioned link. I agree with you - substantial investment in C4ISTAR but i think if we look a bit further situation is not that good in both TAF and HAF. If we compare the TASMUS or even the Gr equivalent HERMES with US, French, German or other tactical level systems they clearly lag in capabilities and extend of deployment within command structure. Just to give an indication a modern brigade is today fielding around 2000-2500 units of CNR (HF, VHF, UHF) in all configurations. Both Turkey and Greece with sizeable conscript armies are not likely to reach such numbers with the current levels of investment. In the end the issue is how much money are you prepared to spend in the low tactical levels. Would like to hear your thoughts.
I'm not very well informed with Greek C4ISR projects but as for Turkey there are some key issues such as:

1. Economic constraints: No need to be specific, I think. Turkey is a developing country with a lot of debt and other areas requiring budget, while need to maintain a strong army. No need to mention the "friendly" geography, I think? :)

2. Maturity of defence industry:

2a. Turkish defence industry have been re-building since second half of 1970's. US embargo after Cyprus operation taught Turkey the necessity of a self reliable military hard way. Most of Turkey's defence companies were founded late 70's and 80's. But technology has been developing way faster than Turkey's speed of running... ok, I'll be honset, "speed of walking". R&D, personnel (engineer, academics, technicians), infrastructure and experience are very, very expensive. =>GOTO Loop#1

2b. "Strategic vision & culture": I call it this way in defense industry. Determination of requiriments, project planning and execution, resources management etc requires strategic vision, culture and experience, which Turkey lacks and had just begun to gain. That is a hard way to walk and lack of vision affects almost every defence project: from grenade launchers to ABM's.

* * *​

Pictures speak louder than words, don't they?

http://xs202.xs.to/xs202/06244/ncw1.jpg

This is what "digitalized armies" or "network centric warfare" means. Turkey, though taking impressive steps, is way behind this concept.

* * *​

Turkey tried ground troops - air units cooperation techniques in the Anatolian Eagle 1/06 exercise. Special Forces troops with digital radios, datalink systems and laser pointers illuminated targets for F-16 and F-4E 2020 aircraft . Also cooperation between ground troops, attack helicopters and fighter jets coordinated from a forward base were exercised. Sounds familiar? US and UK forces made more than these in scale of thousands of kilometers, let alone the size of Konya exercise range...

In light of above, we can say that Turkey is in the very first stage of what can be described as a digital race. There are no more battlefields, but "battlespaces" including the digital one.

As for the "conscription" issue, you are absolutely right. Modern armies need "operators" instead of "soldiers"...
 

ComSec

New Member
orko_8 i couldn't agree more with you on the above posted points. Personally, i think that comparing Turkey's and Greece's capabilities in the area is not always the correct approach. Whilst Turkey is aiming at local capability - which translates into a maturing industry - in order to reduce reliance to foreign equipment sources, Greece is investing more on finding foreign sources of equipment which will ensure non-reliance on sigle source of equipment. The result of this situation is both countries spending $bns every year on defence but Turkey receiving much more on know-how and actual capabilities. For example, this is why Aselsan is now capable of producing quite advanced radios (see VRC-9661) and competing in European digitisation programs (such as the recent Swedish competition on the future SDR which Rockwell Collins finally won). On the other side of the Aegean Greek private companies are still tied up to licenced production of mostly legacy equipment and they only just starting realising the value of putting investment on R&D.

In any case, as mentioned, situation is improving in both TAF and HAF with bright examples such as the NATO Trial Spartan Hammer 2006 aiming at exposing interoperability problems within member states and looking at short term improvements in structure and operation of systems.
 

fantasma

New Member
Just realised on the net that Defence Minister made statements that the next five year plan EMPAE will be announced in July and the budget to 12 bn Euros
 

contedicavour

New Member
fantasma said:
Just realised on the net that Defence Minister made statements that the next five year plan EMPAE will be announced in July and the budget to 12 bn Euros
hello, I've read that your Air Force will be procuring 30 new fighters instead of using an option to buy 10 more of the latest F16s.
What other programmes figure in the new five year plan ?
Do you have a link to an English-language site ?
thks
cheers
 

fantasma

New Member
hot222 said:
Of course F1s are not in service now. I just wanted to underline a special relasionship between Hellas and France. That's i give good chances RAFALE to be elected as Hellas' next generation fighter. About M2000-5 has passed the tests (Hellenic defence media, June 2006). We know why Hellas is selecting European (France) aircrafts and not only US, with any party in the in the goverment.
It's true Greece had and has a special relationship with France but in the case of RAFALE the chances are quite a few..In my opinion Greece will go for Eurofighers (4th gen aircraft, JSF 5th generation aircraft) and in order not to leave the French "dissapointed" will go for the FREMM'S Frigates
 

fantasma

New Member
contedicavour said:
hello, I've read that your Air Force will be procuring 30 new fighters instead of using an option to buy 10 more of the latest F16s.
What other programmes figure in the new five year plan ?
Do you have a link to an English-language site ?
thks
cheers
All data till now it's in the sphere of what are the Military needs in numbers and budget but in July we will have the official announcement from the Defence Ministry about figures for aircrafts frigates lift helos Infantry Vehicles etc...
 

orko_8

New Member
orko_8 i couldn't agree more with you on the above posted points. Personally, i think that comparing Turkey's and Greece's capabilities in the area is not always the correct approach. Whilst Turkey is aiming at local capability - which translates into a maturing industry - in order to reduce reliance to foreign equipment sources, Greece is investing more on finding foreign sources of equipment which will ensure non-reliance on sigle source of equipment. The result of this situation is both countries spending $bns every year on defence but Turkey receiving much more on know-how and actual capabilities. For example, this is why Aselsan is now capable of producing quite advanced radios (see VRC-9661) and competing in European digitisation programs (such as the recent Swedish competition on the future SDR which Rockwell Collins finally won). On the other side of the Aegean Greek private companies are still tied up to licenced production of mostly legacy equipment and they only just starting realising the value of putting investment on R&D.

In any case, as mentioned, situation is improving in both TAF and HAF with bright examples such as the NATO Trial Spartan Hammer 2006 aiming at exposing interoperability problems within member states and looking at short term improvements in structure and operation of systems.
A military's improvement and perfection is done by experiences. Turkey has been struggling against PKK terrorism for nearly 20 years in very harsh conditions in a very difficult region (mountaneous areas of SouthEastern Anatolia) populated by a very complex demographic and ethnic mixture. Executing low intensity conflict - assymteric warfare in such environment gave great experience about SpecOps, PsyOps, Close Air Support techniques and commando warfare. Lessons learned were used to update and often totally change field manuals which were mostly exact translations of US FM's.

Let's take 1974 Kocatepe incident, for example..

Turkish Air Force fighter aircraft misidentified Turkish Navy destroyer TCG Kocatepe and attacked, causing her to sink. This incident was a clear example of the lack of coordination and misreading of intelligence: A very hard lesson to learn. Combined air-sea, air-ground operations are very difficult even in today's conditions. We see fratricides of friendly aircraft, tanks, other units.

But if 1974 operation did not take place, or sinking of Kocatepe did not occur, Turkish military maybe could not get experience about the importance of proper planning and coordination of joint warfare tactics.

There is another lesson for example..

Most of the wounds in Turkish marines occured in the first phases of the landings and when crawling. That was because soldiers did not lower thier toes and enemy machine gun fire over their heads inflicted wounds to toes. After realizing this, army manuals and marine training changed and a specific crawling method was taught to soldiers which dictated lowering of toes.

There are zillions of "hard lessons" like these that excel armies.

Almost every Turkish officer whom I had chance to chat about defense industry constantly gave examples from two battles: 1982 Falkland and 1991 Persian Gulf. These two battles almost traumatically taught lessons. For example RN learned the necessity of air defense of ships hard way. Malfunction of Argentiean SST-4's, the ultimate failure of Iraqi air defense network to counter Coalition air strikes.. etc, etc. Reading "lessons learned" and experiencing them live are very different.

Modern battlefields will be no more specific battlefields. There will be no boundaries, no specific "war-zones". Cities, buildings, mountains, everywhere can be a battlefield. And future wars will mostly consist of clash of two coalitions, i.e multinational forces will be used more often. "Interoperability" is a key word...

A couple of months ago, Spanish frigate F-100 Alvaro de Bazan joined a US carrier task force and conducted joint maneovers, as if a US element of the said force. We (will) see similar examples in the Asia-Pacific region. UK retired Sea Harriers because air defense of RN will be provided by AAW missiles of ships and probably allied (US) aerial cover.

In order to develop and improve NCW skills, an army must increasingly involve in multinational exercises and operations (peace keeping / providing). This is something directly related to a greater vision and understanding of modern warfare. And I think only hard experiences help building up that way of strategic thinking.
 

ComSec

New Member
orko_8 said:
A military's improvement and perfection is done by experiences. Turkey has been struggling against PKK terrorism for nearly 20 years in very harsh conditions in a very difficult region (mountaneous areas of SouthEastern Anatolia) populated by a very complex demographic and ethnic mixture. Executing low intensity conflict - assymteric warfare in such environment gave great experience about SpecOps, PsyOps, Close Air Support techniques and commando warfare. Lessons learned were used to update and often totally change field manuals which were mostly exact translations of US FM's.

Let's take 1974 Kocatepe incident, for example..

Turkish Air Force fighter aircraft misidentified Turkish Navy destroyer TCG Kocatepe and attacked, causing her to sink. This incident was a clear example of the lack of coordination and misreading of intelligence: A very hard lesson to learn. Combined air-sea, air-ground operations are very difficult even in today's conditions. We see fratricides of friendly aircraft, tanks, other units.

But if 1974 operation did not take place, or sinking of Kocatepe did not occur, Turkish military maybe could not get experience about the importance of proper planning and coordination of joint warfare tactics.

There is another lesson for example..

Most of the wounds in Turkish marines occured in the first phases of the landings and when crawling. That was because soldiers did not lower thier toes and enemy machine gun fire over their heads inflicted wounds to toes. After realizing this, army manuals and marine training changed and a specific crawling method was taught to soldiers which dictated lowering of toes.

There are zillions of "hard lessons" like these that excel armies.

Almost every Turkish officer whom I had chance to chat about defense industry constantly gave examples from two battles: 1982 Falkland and 1991 Persian Gulf. These two battles almost traumatically taught lessons. For example RN learned the necessity of air defense of ships hard way. Malfunction of Argentiean SST-4's, the ultimate failure of Iraqi air defense network to counter Coalition air strikes.. etc, etc. Reading "lessons learned" and experiencing them live are very different.

Modern battlefields will be no more specific battlefields. There will be no boundaries, no specific "war-zones". Cities, buildings, mountains, everywhere can be a battlefield. And future wars will mostly consist of clash of two coalitions, i.e multinational forces will be used more often. "Interoperability" is a key word...

A couple of months ago, Spanish frigate F-100 Alvaro de Bazan joined a US carrier task force and conducted joint maneovers, as if a US element of the said force. We (will) see similar examples in the Asia-Pacific region. UK retired Sea Harriers because air defense of RN will be provided by AAW missiles of ships and probably allied (US) aerial cover.

In order to develop and improve NCW skills, an army must increasingly involve in multinational exercises and operations (peace keeping / providing). This is something directly related to a greater vision and understanding of modern warfare. And I think only hard experiences help building up that way of strategic thinking.

Indeed these points demonstrate how conduct of warfare is directly influencing defence technology and political will for reform the force. Operation Iraqi Freedom provided some very valuable lessons as well in this context. I just hope both countries would not put those into test...

To return to our subject, today's Gr press is speculating on the 4th generation platform and it seems like the Rafale is steadily gaining ground. I don't like to be pessimistic but EF offer to Turkey for domestic production might had a negative impact on EF potential in Gr - this because EF didn't make any such offer to the HAF? Who knows?:gun
 

beleg

New Member
Turkey has decided to go for F-35 for its FCA and will acquire around 100 aircraft as expected. THK will also acquire around 30 new F-16 (probably blk50+) to fill in the gap until F-35 starts to arrive. The unmodernised F-4s will receive a local refurbishing extending their service life 10 years more. This means the first F-35 will replace the F-4s. The airforce dediced NOT to acquire the Typhoon..


News relayed from an article posted in Savunma Strateji forum by warrior, report written by Lale SARIIBRAHIMOGLU a defence news reporter based in Ankara.
 

fantasma

New Member
I have read a few days ago in a Greek newspaper "Kathimerini" that concerning the new empae 10 year plan are estimated 2.8 bn Euros for the next generation aircraft probably Typhoon (this means a figure of 40 if the cost is 70mn per aircraft) and 4.75 bn Euros for an airacraft able to stand against the JSF picturing JSF (to me only jsf can fight a jsf except f-22 that is too expensive and restricted exports)..Once again our great politicians will divide the amount to two types of aircrafts doubling logistics etc..Just mention that Turkey will buy around 100 jsf estimated about 10bn Euros..Dear beleg is it official about the 30 f16 brand new aircraft???
 

beleg

New Member
I have read the same Kathimerini article too. I think Typhoon costs much more than 70m per aircraft, hence THK decided not to buy it. I also think that Greece will have difficulty adjusting their procurement plans after this decision of Turkey.

Like you stated dividing the acqusition into 2 new aircraft types will make it virtually impossible for Greece to maintain so many aircraft types efficiently.

Greece will not want to wait to get F-35 as well because Turkey ,as a partner of the program , will get the planes first.

Its a very difficult situation for decision makers. Interesting thing mentioned in that article is F-22 is also considered.

Turkey from the beginning showed interest in 100-120 F-35 (100A - 20 B) and we might see similar numbers announced in a few days.

As i said in my posts above the current F-16 fleet of THK is very streched and will be even more when the CCIP program starts. Thus there was a need for more F-16s. 2 months ago the Commander of THK announced in a conversation for a defence mag that we asked second hand F-16s from USA and were told that no such planes of the blocks we asked were available. So THK now wants to buy the planes.

The exact numbers will be announced this week, with the decisions and progress on other important projects like ATAK(helo),MITUP(tank),Anti BM...

P.S. fantasma i need to send you a pm but you are blocking them i think.
 
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fantasma

New Member
The problem for Greece is a political one..they have made some promices to the Germans 6 years ago for the EFA and a new commitment last year concerning the EU budget funds again for the EFA..the 7bn for new generation aircrafts is a monsterous amount to our financial abiblities..I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THESE 7BN EUROS GOING TO ONE AIRCRAFT TYPE..time will tell..:( :( :(
 

contedicavour

New Member
fantasma said:
The problem for Greece is a political one..they have made some promices to the Germans 6 years ago for the EFA and a new commitment last year concerning the EU budget funds again for the EFA..the 7bn for new generation aircrafts is a monsterous amount to our financial abiblities..I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THESE 7BN EUROS GOING TO ONE AIRCRAFT TYPE..time will tell..:( :( :(
I would be surprised if your country's air force went for 1 type only. Your Air Force operates Phantoms, Tigers, Falcons, Mirage F1s and 2000, and I remember correctly there were Corsairs and Alpha Jets as well.
If at the end you standardize on Typhoons and JSFs it will already be a huge step forward. ;)

cheers
 

beleg

New Member
Greece cannot acquire EF-2000 and F-35 at the same time for economical and logistical reasons.. Same trouble with less extent applies for Turkey (we have less aircraft types). Logical thing for Greece is to go for one aircraft type which will be interoprable with the Neuron..
 

Big-E

Banned Member
beleg said:
Turkey has decided to go for F-35 for its FCA and will acquire around 100 aircraft as expected. THK will also acquire around 30 new F-16 (probably blk50+) to fill in the gap until F-35 starts to arrive. The unmodernised F-4s will receive a local refurbishing extending their service life 10 years more. This means the first F-35 will replace the F-4s. The airforce dediced NOT to acquire the Typhoon..


News relayed from an article posted in Savunma Strateji forum by warrior, report written by Lale SARIIBRAHIMOGLU a defence news reporter based in Ankara.
So this forgoes the EF2000 deal? I thought the offer was still under consideration.
 

fantasma

New Member
contedicavour said:
I would be surprised if your country's air force went for 1 type only. Your Air Force operates Phantoms, Tigers, Falcons, Mirage F1s and 2000, and I remember correctly there were Corsairs and Alpha Jets as well.
If at the end you standardize on Typhoons and JSFs it will already be a huge step forward. ;)

cheers
Dear Contedicavour i would be surprised too if Greece goes for one type..The choice for the EFA FOR POLITICAL REASONS IS INEVITABLE..Lets say that Greece acquires aircrafts in order to be able to counterbalance the TAF over Aegean or Eastern Mediterranean by current forces or those before the entrance of the JSF on Turkeys side these new jets are not necessary..( with current forces including the last order of 30 F16blk 52+ balance of power to third generation aircrafts is certain)..In my opinion Typhoons a 4rth generation airframe in a figure of 40 will give for sure the lead to Greece but after 2015 when Turkey enters to JSF a 5th generation airframe and also in numbers from 100 to 120 introducing stelth technology over Aegean it will rapidly change in quantity and quality any kind of balance..Then our "clever" and backboned politicians will go to the US begging them to let us buy the JSF..they will do it much more expensive than Turkey and budget for the ten year plan except the option for a 4rth gen aircraft has an option for more 4.75 bn Euros. In numbers if you calculate the cost for "goodies" that an aircraft must have on it the most possible figure is for a number ranging from 40-50..not to mention even that Turkey will operate them years first..what ever that means for pilot training..maintenance etc..To my option Greece is going to by an aircraft useless for the time being and but mostly in future balance of power..a good option could be to get in JSF and in the meantime fill in the gap F16S MLU from the Dutch or Portuguese...decision makers are "doing well" their job..and everyone except the blind can see it..Ending just wanted to say that HAF operates F16 blk 30/50/52+ (two engine types oh my God!!!, :confused: Pratt Wittney and General Electric) Mirage 2000/ 2000-5 , Phantoms and A-7 Corsair..Fortunately no F1's (withdrawed a decade and more ago) no alpha jets..
 

Big-E

Banned Member
JSF is bad for the region IMO. If Turkey gets 100 then Greece has to get something to counter that. This arms build up is not healthy for the region. I wish Turkey would de-escalate the situation by taking the EF deal. She will be able to support and maintain domestically her own EFs and make money on exports to Arab customers. Greece will not feel too threatened and not be forced to spend billions of dollars she doesn't have. If JSF price keeps escalating Turkey won't get it anyway.
 

beleg

New Member
Big-E ,
JSF is an ongoing project which Turkey is already a partner and there is already a huge sum of work load being offered to Turkish Industry (5billion$+). Turkey has already planned the funds that will be spent in for the acqusition of the FCA and no matter what this plane will be acquired. With the current price tag of EF being around 100mio$ i dont see why F-35 should cost more since it will be produced in much bigger quantities.

We really dont know the details of EADS offer , all we know is some publicity announcements made by some CEOs. Eurofighter is a plane that will mature in 2010s.Although i am in for buying some EF-2000 i think acqusition of F-35 is a MUST for TuAF. It will extend the already existing Interoperability capacity of TuAF with NATO forces and will be an important force multiplier with the Boeing AEW&C aircraft which are being built.

After the article was posted in news MoD announced that there was still no decision made. But i believe the Airforce has decided already. It now depends on the politicians, they might be willing to "bribe" EU with EF-2000 (or tigre for ATAK?) but i think F-16 & F-35 are the FCA of TuAF..

About the arms race, yes its a bad thing but while Greece has only Turkey to worry about, Turkey is facing a boiling Middle East and dangerously arming Iran, the capabilities that comes with JSF will null the threat posed by Su27/30s that have started flying in Middle Eastern skies.. They are more troublesome than the Greek F-16s and M-2005s..
 

fantasma

New Member
Big-E said:
JSF is bad for the region IMO. If Turkey gets 100 then Greece has to get something to counter that. This arms build up is not healthy for the region. I wish Turkey would de-escalate the situation by taking the EF deal. She will be able to support and maintain domestically her own EFs and make money on exports to Arab customers. Greece will not feel too threatened and not be forced to spend billions of dollars she doesn't have. If JSF price keeps escalating Turkey won't get it anyway.
Big-E i agree with you that JSF is bad IMO for our region..i think Turkey doesn't need stealth aircrafts and in such numbers to counterbalance the airforces of Syria Armenia Iran or Iraq..even with its current forces Turkey has against all of these airforces combined together the upper hand..quality training..we are good trainers for turkish pilots..I guess Big-E that Turkey is planning to be the undoubtable Superpower to the region thats why will make their choice on JSF, 4 Wedgetail Boeing AEW will be operational soon (2 more options), 7 Kc135 R air refuelling tankers are operational with TAF for about a decade giving strategical capabilities and as far as for the Navy our friend beleg has sent info and a catalogue about the Naval projects are taking place already and for the future one's..(dear beleg i thing that are also in the plans to get a squadron of JSF capable to operate from carriers..this means that are also plans to acquire one around 2020?? or just to be used for Nato reasons from US carriers in future joint operations..) yes i'm afraid that the introduction of JSF will escalate fears tensions and imbalance of power not only concerning the so called "Aegean front" but the entire geopolitical surroundings of Turkey that will lead to further arms expenditure in order to counterbalance this acquisition..
 
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