Arms race: Greece & Turkey

[beleg]

As promised ,the naval platform aqusition programme/modernisation of existing platforms are below for TuNavy;

-Modernisation of Ay Class Subs [4 of 6] possibly excluding AIP
+National OPV/ASW Corvette Milgem [8+4]
+New Gen .Submarine with AIP [4]
+New Gen. Patroal Boat [16]
-Submarine Rescue Ship [1]
-Salvage and Aid Ship [1]
-LPD [1]
-LST [2]
-Fast Intervention boat [2]
-SAT Boat [2+2]
-Fast Amphibious Vehicle [8]

+Kilic Class FAC [4] more being built
+MHV-45-014 Class Mine hunters [4] more being built

Other than these
+ATR-72 MPA[10],
+S-70 Seahawks [8]

are also being acquired.

+ ongoing , -planned for near future
Turkey currently has

Meko200TI [4]
Meko200TII [4] - similar to Greek Hydras
OHP [8]
Aviso [6]
Knox [3]

There is no plan to purchase any "new" major combatant for now. There are the options to acquire 2 the non-modernised Australian OHPs and/or The 2 Spruance USA has offered. These ships will replace the Knoxes.

As i said above the outcome of Milgem project will decide the future major platform of TuNavy.If everything goes well then probably Turkey will build a beefed up version of Milgem (quite like the Meko classes 100-200 etc) to replace OHPs and Mekos but these are all going to happen in the next decade earliest. Meanwhile Greece will have acquired her new frigates as they are a priority.

Coast Guard is also looking for Corvette sized cutters and is acquiring more Large Patrol Crafts (MRTP33) and AB-412 Helicopters to increase the existing SAR/anti-terrorism/anti-smuggling capabilities.

In order to maintain the security of the Energy transit Turkey will have to have a strong Navy which can deal with both traditional and asymetric threats.

 

[fantasma]

Thanks beleg for your info..Truth is that Turkey must have presesence over the sea's, Black Sea, the Straits of Bosporus, Ellispontos, Aegean and Mediterranean..Greece also as an other strategic area Aegean Mediteraranean Ionion and Adriatic Sea..In case of Aegean if (hope never happen) tensions grow must be at least equal in order to avoid naval blockades and cutting off sea lines.. The problem is beleg that just a few days ago a moratorium of 3 months (15 june-15 September) was decided and suddenly we heard that there is taking place an aeronautical drill in the Aegean..yesterday Namic Tan spokesmen of the Foreign Ministry said there is a chance to ask from Greece the value of the f16 which was collided midair south of Karpathos and a Greek pilot is dead. Noone can deny that the formation of the 2 f16s escorting an Rf-4E was to take photos of Greek sensitive military installations over north Crete..and this happens once or twice every month..a routine mission..if this is not a hostile action then what it is?? In other words i'm trying to say that Greece makes moves to reduce tensions and to ease her path to E.U but nothing trully comes from the other side anything but provocative acts that causes frustration among greek people who are getting tired with our politicians and their acts and decisions..As i see you are posting from Istanbul. There used to flourish a Greek community until 60's, now in a few years will be vanished once and for all. Not sure please try to "dig" if it's true (not for me for your own knowledge)but even today these people cannot hand over their property to their children through a secret legitimate. These are few reasons that memories and tensions frustration easily raise..and unfortunately as long as our billateral problems are not being resolved defence budget remains high..comsec the truth is that HDW owns the shipyard of Elefsis and they are prssing Goverment to give them orders building warships cause if not happen people loose their jobs..Have a nice day people

 

[beleg]

Dear fantasma,
thank you for your post. I dont like to discuss the political aspect in international forums since it often turns out to be a spitting threat because of people who cannot control their anger. However i will point out some stuff if you let me.

Unfortunately in the 50s-60s some very bad things which i also condemn happened and some of the Greek citizens unjustly was sent to Greece (while some were justly send,many were i believe innocent , in Turkish we have a saying "wet (wood) burns along with dry" ). This had a big impact on the cultural background of Istanbul. The Greeks , Rums as we call them were an important part of our society now forever lost like you said. Same issues happened in Western Thrace but this time against Turks, eye for an eye.. Sad but we have to live with this now.

The event in the international waters of Mediterenean last week is a good example of how serious our problems are actually. Despite the tragic events that happened in the past i believe both sides will continiue to keep the tensions down in the future like in the latest event.

About the R-F4s. I am afraid i can only say you should not believe in tales told by general press. Unfortunately currently RF-4s dont have hi tech equipment to photograph sensitive military bases of Crete. They are waiting their turn for being modernised. The reason behind the flight must be something else, not just wet photography which is outdated.

As i said even if Turkey solves her problem with Greece we will still need to alocate quite huge sums of funds to armamaent and defence technologies. The current situation of mis-trust between the 2 nations will cause spendings on weapons even if we solve our problems.

 

[ComSec]

So HDW owns Elefsis shipyard- thanks for this information fantasma!

Beleg, are you aware of the growing speculation regarding a possible F-16 acquisition by the TAF as an interim solution untill JSF enters service? Some press reports speculate about the possibility of leasing or acquiring inventory currently beeing phased out by other countries. Portugal for example just announced today that they are selling some of their F-16 C/D - all these have undergone mid life upgrade. Would you expect an F-16 or possibly an EF2000 procurement?

 

[fantasma]

Dear Beleg there is to much history and bloodshet that goes back 1000years of wars conquers bla bla..foreigners do not understand it and when we start "confronting" each other and sometimes when warmheads (unfortunately a lot) from both sides comes in discussion they say "come on these greeks and turks again"...i'm sure you have seen it. On the other hand i pressume that lack of instability in eastern borders of Turkey and geopolitical reasons (the area it covers Middle East, Caucasus, Eastern Mediterranean, Black Sea,now an energy corridor) even if problems with Greece resolved budget will remain at a high level..an other reason is that the Military has under control (undoubtable) a large sector of the economy (banks military factory media) and influences every goverment to direct money in our case to factories/enterprices to produce weapon material that are under his control..The Ozgiok Doktrine that military has to turn its interest to the sea and make Turkey a naval super power in Eastern Mediterranean is good for Turkey but imballance of power always leads to reactions from countries feel threatened (Greece)..if billateral problems resolved maybe Greek defence budget remains at the level of 2.75% or less but in the same time due to morphology and geology and geopolicy Greece has to maintain large air and naval forces..To our topic i have to say that one of the best choices and don't know if in this EMPAE will be fulfilled (if any has any info on that sent note) is the acquisition of 3-4 air fuel tankers that can also be operational with f16 mirage 2000 and also with the next generation airframe

 

[ComSec]

Dear Fantasma
There is no air refueling tanker item in the recent EMPAE currently under approval. No such item appears in the GEETHA or Air Force individual budgets as well. As for the next generation airframe the Ministry of National Economy will probably restrict the initial number of platforms to be acquired to 20 followed by another 20 later. With regards to the selection of the platform there is too much speculation, perhaps you can provide some of your thoughts - estimates here?

 

[beleg]

@comsec
There is a serious consideration going on about the F-16s. Since the F-4TII modernisation programme has been cancelled when the CCIP goes online there will be serious problems in maintaining the current squadrons. There is already a sq worth of F-16 mishaps since their acquisition. So the need for additional F-16s when you sum up all the info above, and consider the future mishaps is a strong possibility.

In fact in last months issue of S&H defence mag , Commander of TuAF said that Turkey requested to purchase second hand F-16s from USA (blk40/50) but didnt receive a positive answer. LM is offering new F-16s estimated number is 30.

However I believe we will first see a decision in the selection of a new gen combat aircraft and only after that depending on the aircraft(s?) selected, will TuAF decide if they need more F-16s.

The Greek EMPAE says Greece iwll acquire 3-4 Tanker aircraft between 2006-2015 if the budget & economy allows. Another very important and currently lacking item for EPA imo is a serious LIFT aircraft which was also on the shopping list last time i checked..

 

[ComSec]

Thanks for this information beleg!
With your hint on the priority level of the next generation platform you probably assume a decision in favour of EF2000 since TAF will also receive the JSF? In my personal opinion EF2000 just offers too much in terms of capabilities to be ignored by both TAF and HAF in the short-mid term.
As for the Greek air refuelling capability, it would certainly be useful to the HAF since they currently lack such (think however that some F-4 are used for this role) but i cannot locate such an item anywhere on Gr or International sources.

 

[fantasma]

Guys Friday at last..time to start thinking to chase some fresh "meat"...To our topic now i think that Greece should go on a small number of air refuelling tankers that will increase dramatically operational capabilities of HAF..the problem is that our airframes uses different ways in order to be refueled. So lets say that Greece goes for refuelling tankers which platform will suit her best due to these differences i have just mentioned above??? In my point of view most possible scenario of acquiring next generation fighters is "wait and see" the decision of Turkey that will take place according to official sources until the end of the current year..(my view is that f35 will be the decision for 80-120 airframes and a possible as 40 EF-2000) From the other side i guess that due to political reasons (if the funds that Greece takes next years from the E.U was above 20 bn Euros then Eurofigher will be acquired, the amount was finally 20.5 bns. Eurofighter issue was part of the negotiations mainly with Germany) Greece will give an order maybe next year for maybe a figure 30+10options..This means EFA Tranche 2 with swing role capabilities..Then if my hypothesis is correct around 2015 deliveries of JSF will take place for Turkey..I guess then Greece will do an aditional order for 40 JSF..This scenario says that both countries will operate these masterpieces of military aviation (and possible interceptions that will prove their trully abilities over Aegean skies for FOX 1 2 3). Greece is estimated to have aroun 2020 about 80 airframes and Turkey about 120-160..If you ask me i wouldnt put my money on EFA and waited for JSFB for logistical reasons..I would like to see your views or any info on these scenarios..

 

[fantasma]

Greece decided at July 2005 to buy 30 F-16/B52 +10 as option. At the end of 2005 decided not to use the option. It's moving to a 4th Generation Fighter, closing to a 30 (+30) airframes. Eurofighter maybe is the stronger competitor, but also keep in mind that Greece is using since 1974 Mirages (F1, M2000, M2000-5). Gripen also is on the scene, but with less possibilities.

Greece had Mirage F1 in service until 1997 when started deliveries of f16 blk 50..Mirage 2000 from the 90s and Mirage 2000-5 (15 brand new+10 Mirage 2000 uprgated to -5) not accepted yet from HAF cause didn't reach 100% requirements but this will happen till the end of year.

 

[beleg]

@comsec,
your welcome. My source for the news is above translation is various defence magazines which are translated by Greek friends in WCF. Some of these mags are quite reliable. But we will see indeed..

about THK again.. I believe the YNMU (new gen aircarft tender) will have only one winner and that is JSF.. The capabilities are too good to skip it. However Turkey is trying to maximise the local gain. Already a 5b$ workshare has been guaranteed and SSM is trying hard to gain more offsets and some tech capabilities. However when you see the difficulties that USA has even with Great Britain over the tech transfer issues i think we will have to settle with whatever we get if we want the plane.

Even if we buy 100 F-35s starting from 2015s we can see that with the current mishaps ratio there will be ~15 more F-16 mishaps, mean while CCIP will be ongoing that is around a sq. or so planes off duty for modernisation and the unmodernised F-4s ending their service life (2sqs). There is already 1sq worth of F-16s lost. This means even around 2015 when JSF starts to enter service Turkey will have need for at least 30-40 more new planes to be already in service.

There are 2 options. Get F-16s or EF-2000. I hope the second one will come true and Alenia is pushing very hard for this , especially to replace the F-4s but money talks here..I really dont want to pay for F-16s when maybe in a decade it will be easier to find second hand F-16s to fill the gaps in CCIPed F-16 sqs. I'd rather spend more and buy EF-2000 today but i am no decision maker .

@fantasma
Greece with the new gen aircraft tender will get a new plane to replace the remaining A-7s and F-4s in service. So when these aircraft enter service (2009-2010s) They will have F-16s(blk30/50/52+),M-2000-5s,F-4PI2000 and tne new aircraft chosen.. I am not sure they will be eager to introduce another type before digesting the first in 2015s so if Greece doesnt ask for JSF today they might have to wait well into 2020s imo..

 

[fantasma]

Greece until 2010 must replace A-7 and f4 didn't get the upgrade to Peace Icarus 2000..About 50 A-7 and 30 f4..After the order of 30 f16 blk 52 are left around 50 jets to be replaced..thus i guess the number of 40 EFA will be the figure..

 

[Big-E]

There are 2 options. Get F-16s or EF-2000. I hope the second one will come true and Alenia is pushing very hard for this , especially to replace the F-4s but money talks here..I really dont want to pay for F-16s when maybe in a decade it will be easier to find second hand F-16s to fill the gaps in CCIPed F-16 sqs. I'd rather spend more and buy EF-2000 today but i am no decision maker .

I think Alenia would be fool hardy to pass up the offer. Not only do you get a top notch dedicated fighter- which JSF is not- you also get the ability to make a profit on it by getting production and support rights- with JSF you do not-. The EF offer is a win-win. Lets see how smart your politicians are.

 

[beleg]

@Fantasma,
yes that is why i believe EPA wont be eager to introduce JSF so early in late 2010s .. with all the above aircraft it will be logistically difficult to introduce another combat aircraft before retiring F-4PIs.. Even then F-35,EF-2000/Rafale,M2005 and F-16 with 2 different engines.. I wouldnt be a logistics officer in EPA

@ Big-E
I also think Alenia offer is a good one. But they request minimum of 72 aircraft. It will all come to how much Turkey is willing to spend rather than their smartness..

 

[fantasma]

Just to put down some of the scenarios from what i have seen till now. That might be the picture of the two arforces around 2020..
HAF
160 F16 blk 30/50/52+ (maybe modernisation of blk 30s 50s)
25 Mirage 200-5 25 Mirage 2000 (possible modernisation of the latest to -5 level)
35 F-4 Pease Icarus 2000
40 EFA - 40 JSF

TuAF
215 F16 blk 30/40/50 (117 modernised to CCIP level and a possible 80 aircraft will follow) *also a possibility of 30 more used F 16s
54 F-4 Terminator 2020
100-120 JSF - 40 EFA

a total 325 aircraft for HAF / A possible figure ranging from 370-460aircraft for TuAF

 

[beleg]

Well the YNMU which will enter service in 2016s will start to replace F4Terminators for THK. I guess same applies for PIs of EPA. However Greece wants to introduce her first aircraft by 2010s and the second batch later on after 2015..

So yes the airforces might look something similar to that around 2015 with confirmed orders.

 

[hot222]

Greece had Mirage F1 in service until 1997 when started deliveries of f16 blk 50..Mirage 2000 from the 90s and Mirage 2000-5 (15 brand new+10 Mirage 2000 uprgated to -5) not accepted yet from HAF cause didn't reach 100% requirements but this will happen till the end of year.

Of course F1s are not in service now. I just wanted to underline a special relasionship between Hellas and France. That's i give good chances RAFALE to be elected as Hellas' next generation fighter. About M2000-5 has passed the tests (Hellenic defence media, June 2006). We know why Hellas is selecting European (France) aircrafts and not only US, with any party in the in the goverment.

 

[ComSec]

Indeed hot222 - this is a good point but i personally don't see Gr going for Rafale - after all it has been tested by HAF without too much enthusiasm. But as you say decision will be taken based on offsets, we might be up to surprise here.

I would like also to introduce another issue, as digitisation initiatives in US, UK, AU, France and other countries have clearly exposed is that platforms and numbers alone do not give the edge. Investment in communications, networks, C2 and sensors is imperative for achieving information and decision superiority today. My belief is that both militaries lag in such capabilities (probably due to budgetary or force size considerations), can anyone shed some light here?

 

[beleg]

ComSec IMHO you are partially wrong. Economical issues are out there and putting a hard time on our shoulders. But i can say that for the limited resources we have TSK has done and is doing a tremendous job in keeping on par with the requirements of modern battle field. Below you can find the names of the projects that TSK has either deployed , currently developing or joint developing. TSK has a sessitivity in these systems to make them national, which means at least the sensitive part must be strictly under control and changable/redesignable.

Airforce
Peace Eagle project,
Link16 & AIFF systems to aircraft,
Göktürk recon sat project,
Sar sat project,
Xband comsats,
Joint MALE UAVs (Army,Airforce,Navy),
Realtime EO/IR & SAR Pods,

Navy
Far Horizon,
Link11 for naval fleet,
Link16 for naval airplatforms (MPA)

Army
Armed Forces Command and Control Project
Battle Field Management System Project
Fire Support & Automation Project (From corps level to basic units)
Herriks (skywatcher)
Tasmus - tactical area comm system (C4I)
Integration of the said systems to all Armed Forces units

 

[orko_8]

I would like also to introduce another issue, as digitisation initiatives in US, UK, AU, France and other countries have clearly exposed is that platforms and numbers alone do not give the edge. Investment in communications, networks, C2 and sensors is imperative for achieving information and decision superiority today. My belief is that both militaries lag in such capabilities (probably due to budgetary or force size considerations), can anyone shed some light here?

Turkish Armed Forces in general and Turkish Air Force has been investing hard on Network Centric Warfare and improvement of C4ISR capabilities. Some projects have been completed, some are on track and some are to be materialized. Most important ones can be listed as:

1. "Peace Eagle" Boeing 737 MESA AWACS: 4+2 a/c to be delivered. First one built and undergoing modifications. The rest willl come to TAI facilities and system integration work will be done there.

2. Surveillance satellite acquisition: Procurement of 2 reconnaissance satellites. Project is on track

3. TAFICS - Turkish Armed Forces Integrated Communications System: Integrated C4ISR network project, some phases completed. Includes indignous built communication systems and terminals as well as sensor fusion centers, mostly designed by ASELSAN

4. TASMUS: Tactical Battlefield Communications System: Battlefield C4ISR network system

5. "Uzun Ufuk": Integrated Maritime Surveillance System. Radar Systems, Radar-ESM Systems, Communication System. (Radar Systems (3+1 Units), Radar-ESM Systems (3 Units), Communication System.) Project on track.

6. HVBS - Air Force Information System: Command, control and planning system for Air force, developed by Havelsan. In service.

7. X band satellite communications system: info

These are the first ones that came to my mind. Some projects stalled because of the 2001 economic crisis, but after Turkey's recovery, there is relative speed-up in defense industry.

You can get some further information from Undersecretariat of Defense Industries web site: http://www.ssm.gov.tr/sub03_eng.asp