Arms race: Greece & Turkey

[beleg]

Well on the net you can find prices ranging from 385 mio € (~450 mio $) to 680 mio $. I assume the price of the ship w/o the weapons should be around 500 mio $ at the least. A country size of Turkey would need 2+(2) ships capable of AAW, which would require more than 2,5 billion $ (thats the estimated cost including R&D for 8+(4) Milgems btw)

I had the chance to see F-103 Blas de Lezo in Istanbul from close quarters and take its photographs. Its an amazing ship and looks quite like the OHPs which is one of my favorite ship designs..

 

[contedicavour]

Well on the net you can find prices ranging from 385 mio € (~450 mio $) to 680 mio $. I assume the price of the ship w/o the weapons should be around 500 mio $ at the least. A country size of Turkey would need 2+(2) ships capable of AAW, which would require more than 2,5 billion $ (thats the estimated cost including R&D for 8+(4) Milgems btw)

I had the chance to see F-103 Blas de Lezo in Istanbul from close quarters and take its photographs. Its an amazing ship and looks quite like the OHPs which is one of my favorite ship designs..

I'm impressed by the evolution of capabilities of Turkish naval industry. Developing and building without any external support a class of missile light frigates is quite an achievement. I'm a bit worried however by the costs though : if I read your numbers correctly, 2 Milgems will cost as much as a F-100 AAW FFG. This seems to me a bit out of proportions, since an off-the-shelf German K-130 corvette (I'll stop using systematically Italian examples ) costs 160-180 million euro approx.
What is your assessment ? The positive influence on local industry capabilities offsets this difference in costs ?

cheers

 

[orko_8]

MilGem project is estimated to cost around 1.4 billion dollars. But most of this cost is for R&D projects. We currenctly are not informed about the cost of "serial produciton" ships, that's why it is early to comment on unit prices.

 

[beleg]

Dear orko_8,
thats the "estimated" cost for 8 ships if i am not mistaken?

Dear contedicavour,
As I said before, and orko_8 has confirmed there is alot of R&D going on in the project, like Genesis, a national sonar climatization & degaussing sytems, ir represors, the ships Combat system, electro-optic systems etc etc.. All these systems are national assets which can later be used in other projects..

For-example the electro-optic systems developed for MiLGEM will also be used in the modernisation of Fast Attack Crafts, thus reducing foreign dependence.

Its an ambitious program, lets wait to see how it evolves.

 

[orko_8]

I think so, it must be for 8 ships.

 

[fantasma]

I have some interesting data about the budget of EMPAE and some historical issues..the empae 2001-2005 ended on 2002 (original budget 11.7 bn Euros and final budget that trully spended for the 2001-2005 empae 5.8bn..the half of the original).. the empae 2001-2005 was completed on November of 2002 and the time of payments was doubled..this means that the payments of 2001-2005 empae and for some programmes of the previous empae 1996-2000 are estimated to 11.3 bn Euros from a 2006-2010 period..what a coincidence this is just the budjet for new projects of the 2006-2010 empae..in simpe words even if greece gets nothing this period is obligated to pay 11.3 Euros..[the only acquisition out of any programme was the order for the 30 f16s].
The substance is that armaments according to this article of a very serious financial greek newspaper (o kosmos tou ependiti) will be frosen from 2003 to 2009..if the article has a real basis it means that every project new frigates aircrafts etc will be decided later than expected..the title of the article is "Empae 2006-2010 a Ghost programme"

 

[fantasma]

From the press last days an other scenario about the next fighters plan procurement made its appearance..it was written that for the time being due to economic and logistics a possible buy of 15 F16 BLK 52+ ,less Mirage 2000-5 and modernisation of the whole fleet of Mirage 2000 to -5 level and let for the future the next procurement..time will tell.

 

[beleg]

More F-16s? THK has similar plans but i dont know if this is really wise..

 

[fantasma]

Many goverment officials according to greek newspapers are sceptical for the new EMPAE 2006-2010 suggesting the PM to postpone decisions after the next general elections (maybe around 2008)...let me remind you in my previous post what i have written for the article of "o kosmos tou ependiti" titling "Empae 2006-2010 a ghost program"..the F16s to me are a very good solution..logistics, homogenizing the HAF fleet and save funds in order to support a major scale of new generation aircrafts around 2015..the same with the Mirage 's 2000-5, a very powerful multi role aircraft..if this scenario will be fulfilled the budget cost is estimated between 1.5 to 2BN Euros..if the programme of the Eurofighter proceeds estimated budget is 3.2 BN Euros for 30-40 aircframes and another 1.5 to 2 bn Euros for extra "goodies"..3 bn euros at least more if the second choice selected..if the first scenario, then 170 F16s (100 blk -52+, 40 blk -50, 30 blk -30 )and about 50-60 Mirage 2000-5..then around 2015 will arrive the next generation aircraft in numbers maybe ranging between 60-80 airframes..

 

[beleg]

Correct. That is what is being said here as well..

*To replenish the F-16 fleet which has suffered 30 losses since frist introduction to service in 80s
*To keep planes per squadron in maintainable numbers when CCIP modernisation goes in full run
*To take over air defence roles from F-4 squadrons which will not be modernised and cannot carry AMRAAMs (unlike Greek PI)
*Budgetary and logistical restrictions of introduction of EF-2000
*Low cost of F-16 acqusition.....

These are all very strong points. IMHO If both countries delay their new generation fighter acqusition to 2015s then we will see F-35 in both countries airforces. Coupled with Mirage 2000 & F-16s for Greece and F-16s for Turkey we will have the biggest single engined multi-purpose airforces of the region.

 

[fantasma]

My opinion that i have stated here before is that selecting now Eurofighter will bring logistical mess to EPA and luck of funds for the next acquisition around 2015 that there is in the 2011-2015 EMPAE supported with 4.75 bn Euros..there is also an other parameter that if now the selection of Eurofighter takes place i guess it would be tranche 2 with Captor radar not Caesar Aesa and stronger eurojet engines giving more thrust, these are expected to be fitted on tranche 3 (and more other capabilities) when the aircraft will be in a mature phase being a trully swing role aircraft..eurofighter tranche 2 is a less capable aircraft and if Greece goes for it it will be just to "feed" European industry spoiling significant funds and the same time giving to EPA an aircraft that will give the lead to Greece against Turkey but only for 2-3 years..it is going to be a very expensive buy but the result is that the cost effectiveness analogy if someone sees it cold blood doesnt worth..too much cost / low effectiveness..and another buy on the near future..

 

[fantasma]

Just released on the "in.gr" website that the decision for the next aircraft acquisition (after a meeting with Prime Minister and minister of defence) is postponed in a time after the next general elections which maybe take place around 2008 and the programmes that will proceed is the frigates for the Navy, gunboats torpedoes and other programms for the land forces...( not mentioned)..this means that the decision will be proceeded from the new goverment is going to be elected and deleveries start after 2011..too many "dust" out there..maybe when dust is going down the JSF issue will become stronger..or Eurofighter tranche 3..for the time it seems that the priority is given to the Navy and to the army for transport helos and infantry fighting vehicles (maybe Puma's) as completments and supportive of the Leo 2a6..the budget of the 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 according to this will reach 27.5 bn Euros..

 

[contedicavour]

What level of participation do local aerospace industries have if more F16s are ordered and if the Greek Mirages are updated to -5 standard ?
My understanding is that the Turkish assembly line for F16s is closed.

Participation in the Eurofighter consortium would doubtlessly involve Hellenic & Turkish aerospace industries more, wouldn't it ?

Again, I'm not doing the industries' advocate, but I'm just curious of the mechanics behind your governments' decision-making. In Italy, pure Air Force interests have hardly ever won, behind every decision was a mix of interests of industry (R&D and employment considerations) and military.

cheers

 

[fantasma]

What level of participation do local aerospace industries have if more F16s are ordered and if the Greek Mirages are updated to -5 standard ?
My understanding is that the Turkish assembly line for F16s is closed.

Participation in the Eurofighter consortium would doubtlessly involve Hellenic & Turkish aerospace industries more, wouldn't it ?

Again, I'm not doing the industries' advocate, but I'm just curious of the mechanics behind your governments' decision-making. In Italy, pure Air Force interests have hardly ever won, behind every decision was a mix of interests of industry (R&D and employment considerations) and military.

cheers

I agree in many things you have mentioned above..if i'm right the entire programme of the Mirages update to -5 standard took place in Hellenic Industry...as for the f16s (170 pieces till now) the greek decision makers it seems that they were satisfied with the offset packages..not a lot of industry considerations..the purchase of so many f16s could justify an assembly line but a number of mistakes (repeatedly mistakes stops to be a coincidence or stupids or heavy wallets or political reasons)..now listen to the other one..Turkey invested to the JSF so in the future to have the opportunity building an assembly line..Greece was on the edge doing the same with the Typhoon on 1999..Then due to lack of funds (Olympics 2004) they left the decision to the next goverment..in 2005 suddenly they decided to go for another 30 f16 blk 52+ when there was a political decision for the EFA and to become a partner co producing the aircraft..afterwards there was an hypothesis of byuing 30 EFA but their cost was now in a higher level that it might be if there was an earlier decision to get in the project..now there is also again a delay and my enstict says it will be in 2009 or 2010..unfortunately i'm not optimistic that they care to much for air industry's benefits and my view is that we will see a repet of the middle 80's decision. Dividing funds for two types of aircrafts in about equal numbers maybe 40/40 so no assembly line is excused for these figures..cheers

 

[fantasma]

Correct. That is what is being said here as well..

*To replenish the F-16 fleet which has suffered 30 losses since frist introduction to service in 80s
*To keep planes per squadron in maintainable numbers when CCIP modernisation goes in full run
*To take over air defence roles from F-4 squadrons which will not be modernised and cannot carry AMRAAMs (unlike Greek PI)
*Budgetary and logistical restrictions of introduction of EF-2000
*Low cost of F-16 acqusition.....

These are all very strong points. IMHO If both countries delay their new generation fighter acqusition to 2015s then we will see F-35 in both countries airforces. Coupled with Mirage 2000 & F-16s for Greece and F-16s for Turkey we will have the biggest single engined multi-purpose airforces of the region.

I think that the Israeli Airforce had and continues to have the biggest single engined multi purpose airforce..they have the biggest f16 fleet after the USAF, F4, KFIR, and the two engined f15's..and their planns are for up to 150 f35's

 

[swerve]

I think that the Israeli Airforce had and continues to have the biggest single engined multi purpose airforce..they have the biggest f16 fleet after the USAF, F4, KFIR, and the two engined f15's..and their planns are for up to 150 f35's

F-4 are twin-engined, Kfir is retired, & F-35 won't be delivered for about another 10 years. But Israel has had more F-16s delivered than Turkey, or Greeces combined F-16 & Mirage 2000 deliveries, so I agree, it has the most in the region.

 

[beleg]

I meant airforce that relies only on single engined aircraft. Israel is an F-15 user. Relying only on single engined (with relatively low power) is a risc against airforces with high power aircraft..

 

[fantasma]

Your comment is accurate beleg..what i wanted to say is that Israeli Airforce has the biggest single engine fleet 350 F16S in various blocks..(and to me the best well trained and also in quality and quantity terms including all other types are far away the mightiest airforce in eastern mediterranean.)
To the matter of the EMPAE'S budget 2006-2010 things are becoming much clearer from what the MOD Meimarakis stated in Kathimerini giving data about the amount for 2006-2010 period to 11.3 bn euros and for payments of previous projects to 8.5 bn euros. It is official now that the real amount for new projects is 3 bn euros

 

[beleg]

I agree on your comments about the IAF.

The details you have given about EMPAE in this thread are very intersting. I must thank you. So can we estimate that due to the limited budget,
instead of AAW Greece will go for multi purpose frigates ? With the ambitious land forces modernisation (new-second hand sphs,new ifv (puma?),more mbts, apcs etc) projects also on the horizon i think airforce will not get neither new fighters nor the tanker aircraft they have long been asking for, do you agree?

 

[fantasma]

I agree on your comments about the IAF.

The details you have given about EMPAE in this thread are very intersting. I must thank you. So can we estimate that due to the limited budget,
instead of AAW Greece will go for multi purpose frigates ? With the ambitious land forces modernisation (new-second hand sphs,new ifv (puma?),more mbts, apcs etc) projects also on the horizon i think airforce will not get neither new fighters nor the tanker aircraft they have long been asking for, do you agree?

Beleg i'm really too curious to see in such a "huge" budget of 3bn euros if any or which programmes will proceed at last. the frigates budget is 2.8 bn euros the transport helos 0.8 billion the new training aircraft 1 bn and aifv's 1.5 bn. the point is that if any contracts of these take place a minimum cost will be at first and payments could last until the last peace of each project arrives and be operational..as things are now maybe the navy is a priority (to be honest i have no idea if AAW frigates or multipurpose frigates will be the decision) and some of the armies land forces projects..new fighters and tanker aircraft i think they are out of the question..may God have all of us good to discuss it again in the future after 2009..as for the tanker aircraft it seems to be a summer night dream