The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ukrainians have used Storm Shadows inside Russia for the first time, in the Kursk Oblast. The target was a building looking like an old palace, previousely used as a sanatorium according to this Times Radio guest. They threw around 10 Storm Shadows at this target alone. That's an impressive use of ressources, given that they have only a few dozen of them. So this should be a very important target. Probably a headquarter where generals were meeting at the time of the attack.
If that was the target, then all 10 missiles that landed missed it.

The target most likely was the two buildings (I suspect it could just as well be one of them, if the target was actually a command post, and some missiles simply missed, or it could be just the barracks) not far from the “old palace” because those two buildings are the ones that got hit. Confirmation from the UAV and geolocation in these posts:


Pogrębki (Little Graves in local language...)
The word has nothing to do with “graves”, neither big nor little (or anything else to do with burials or death or whatever).

In Kursk, while no significant advances have been made by Russia lately, the Ukrainian controlled territory and the grey zone, as reported by Deepstate, changed quite a bit in the past couple of days.

IMG_7978.jpeg

As for North Koreans, note that aside from reports, mostly by the Ukrainian officials and top rank (who lie almost every time their mouths are open), we have not seen any actual evidence of them participating in the fighting. I said a while ago I will believe it when I see it and I haven’t seen it yet.


I am amazed at people (even some that appear to be fairly reasonable at times) suggesting that no Russian nuclear strike of any kind in response to the ATACMS/Shadow strikes is a confirmation of no red lines and the like. It is an especially odd expectation because all that has been hit so far is an ammo depot that has been already hit one month ago and some barracks that may or may not have been a command post 40 or so km from the Ukrainian border. Note that the latter was already hit with HIMARS previously as well. To think that Russia is going to send a nuke or two somewhere because of it is pretty crazy. To think that there will be no retaliation of any kind is just as naive (but maybe not as crazy).

If the reports are correct, Ukraine had used 8 ATACMS and 12 Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles in the past two days in Russia.


Regarding Toretsk and previously reported Ukrainian counterattacks and a fair bit of advancement as a result. I am still confused about it. Like I said before, not everyone reported those counterattacks or any Ukrainian forward movement in the area at all. For the past few days it has been reported by almost every mapper I follow that Russians are controlling the area where Ukrainians had allegedly advanced. For example:

IMG_7979.jpeg

Source: x.com
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
There are “rumours” that Russia hit Dnipro with an ICBM (no nuclear payload, obviously, if any at all). The visuals:


The sounds:


The report of missiles used and interceptions from the same source (Truha), which includes 0/1 ICBM intercept, same for Kinzhal, and 6/7 Kh-101 being shot down (the latter is questionable as there were reports of hits in Poltava and Keremchuk):


Edit: More visuals:


Edit 2: This is now being confirmed by the Ukraine’s Air Force:

 
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swerve

Super Moderator
EU membership depends on Ukraine addressing corruption and NATO entry would be more likely if EU membership is granted. A long process IMO.
No E. European country has joined the EU before joining NATO. Six joined almost at the same time, in 2004 but they joined NATO slightly (just over a month) before the EU. Six others joined the EU from three to five years after joining NATO. Three are members of NATO but not the EU. All are candidates to join the EU, but membership has not yet been agreed.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There are “rumours” that Russia hit Dnipro with an ICBM (no nuclear payload, obviously, if any at all). The visuals:


The sounds:


The report of missiles used and interceptions from the same source (Truha), which includes 0/1 ICBM intercept, same for Kinzhal, and 6/7 Kh-101 being shot down (the latter is questionable as there were reports of hits in Poltava and Keremchuk):


Edit: More visuals:


Edit 2: This is now being confirmed by the Ukraine’s Air Force:

I'm curious if it had no payload or had a conventional payload (it's pretty clear it didn't have a nuclear one). The latter might suggest Russia has gone ahead with a version of what the US termed Prompt Global Strike. Also, it has to be said; "Russia has no way to escalate this conflict further" :rolleyes: .

EDIT: Putin claims this is a new Russian missile system called Oreshnik. I suspect it might have been designed with input from Iran, but with Russian technology being the basis for it. Iran operates quite a few conventional ballistic missiles below the ICBM but well above something like an ATACMS or even an Iskander.
 
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Fredled

Active Member
This video shows clearly where the missiles hit.
According to the commentator and other analysts I have heard elsewhere, they hit a Soviet era underground bunker.
All the 12 missiles hit the target. They all exploded at the same place. They really wanted to destroy one precise item, not a range of barracks or hangars. The missiles explode slightly after the impact, which suggest a bunker buster payload.
One explanation why the Ukrainians fired so many Storm Shadows at once is that they expected that half of them would be intercepted by air defence.
There is also a smartphone video filmed from the ground, but I don't have any link to it. Maybe by searching, you will find it.

KipPotapych said:
n Kursk, while no significant advances have been made by Russia lately, the Ukrainian controlled territory and the grey zone, as reported by Deepstate, changed quite a bit in the past couple of days.
They finally withdrew from the encirclement...

KipPotapych said:
Regarding Toretsk and previously reported Ukrainian counterattacks and a fair bit of advancement as a result. I am still confused about it. Like I said before, not everyone reported those counterattacks or any Ukrainian forward movement in the area at all. For the past few days it has been reported by almost every mapper I follow that Russians are controlling the area where Ukrainians had allegedly advanced. For example:
I have heard of Ukrainian counter-attack but not of permanent advance. Russians returned to their positions after the counter attack.
_________________
ICBM on Dnipro
Putin said:
an attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday morning was carried out using "a new conventional intermediate-range missile".
The missile, codenamed Oreshnik, was a response to the use by Ukraine of US and UK long-range weaponry to hit targets inside Russia.

Russia could attack military facilities of those countries which allowed their weapons to be used for this purpose
link
Feanor said:
I'm curious if it had no payload or had a conventional payload (it's pretty clear it didn't have a nuclear one).
According to the videos, the missile had several warheads with little or no payload. There are explosion visible, but not large ones. IMO there were small payloads.
The warheads fell on a wide area, perhaps over one kilometre. It's not the best way to hit a precise target but destruction can be important in urabn area.
One thing is certain: The missile was not intercepted. This is normal because the Patriot and other systems Ukraine has are not able to intercept such missile.

IMO, it's Putin's scare tactic. Like saying "next time it could contain a nuclear warhead". But nobody is impressed. For Ukrainians, it's just one more air attack.
_________________
I said:
Pogrębki (Little Graves in local language...)
KipPotapych said:
The word has nothing to do with “graves”
I said, in local language. I didn't say it was in Russian. ;)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
They finally withdrew from the encirclement...
So there was an encirclement?

I have heard of Ukrainian counter-attack but not of permanent advance. Russians returned to their positions after the counter attack.
According to the sources I'm looking at Ukraine retains Makarovka, and has recaptured Verkhnekamenskoe in the Seversk salient. They've also pushed Russia out of the mine complex south of Chasov Yar and still hold it. The place where Ukraine attacked and then was pushed back was Toretsk.
_________________
ICBM on Dnipro
link

According to the videos, the missile had several warheads with little or no payload. There are explosion visible, but not large ones. IMO there were small payloads.
The warheads fell on a wide area, perhaps over one kilometre. It's not the best way to hit a precise target but destruction can be important in urabn area.
Perhaps not all were real warheads. It may have been main warhead(s) with decoys/pen-aids. And it's probably not an ICBM.

I said, in local language. I didn't say it was in Russian. ;)
This argument is stupid. In Kursk the local language is Russian, with some Surzhik, but it's not Ukrainian. Either way the word погреб (pogreb) means cellar in Russian and Ukrainian. The word погребки is plural of погребок which is a diminutive of погреб. The village is therefore called little cellars. Grave in Ukrainian (and Russian) is могила/mohyla, and burial is похoвання (ironically burial in Russian is погребение which is close to погреб which is a buried cellar, so whoever told you this meant little graves probably speaks Russian rather than Ukrainian).
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I'm curious if it had no payload or had a conventional payload (it's pretty clear it didn't have a nuclear one). The latter might suggest Russia has gone ahead with a version of what the US termed Prompt Global Strike. Also, it has to be said; "Russia has no way to escalate this conflict further" :rolleyes: .

EDIT: Putin claims this is a new Russian missile system called Oreshnik. I suspect it might have been designed with input from Iran, but with Russian technology being the basis for it. Iran operates quite a few conventional ballistic missiles below the ICBM but well above something like an ATACMS or even an Iskander.
It would be interesting to see the aftermath of the strikes.

This article talks about some “preliminary thoughts” on the strike/missile:


IMO, it's Putin's scare tactic. Like saying "next time it could contain a nuclear warhead". But nobody is impressed. For Ukrainians, it's just one more air attack.
A scheduled session of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) for 22 November has been cancelled. Members of parliament were warned of a potential Russian strike targeting the government quarter.


Seems like someone may be “impressed” after all. Seems like Russia can cancel a Rada session any time it wants. Seems like Russia demonstrated that they can potentially reliably strike strategic sites in Europe, avoiding the absolute majority of NATO air defences (like almost all?). Seems like they demonstrated that they can level any site in Ukraine at will (Rada clearly appreciated the message). They showed that the warning of the actual launch came from the Russians notifying the US 30 minutes before the launch, not somewhere else. They showed that they, even though they didn’t have to make such a notification (since not an ICBM, or so Putin specifically said), chose to do so indicating the desire to keep escalation managed, at least for now. They demonstrated that further escalation in Ukraine is possible (again, Rada appreciated the message). And so on. I believe many reasonable people are “impressed” and consideration will be taken in the future. This is undeniable snd very reasonable, in my opinion.

The good news here, notification of the Americans by the Russians aside, is that they probably have very limited number of these missiles, but likely enough for the intended purpose. The bad news is that Russia is expanding its production capacities:


This is in addition to the current estimated stockpile of the “basic” missiles that they regularly use in Ukraine sitting at over 1,500 and increasing:


The information provided above further supports the fact that Rada did get somewhat “impressed”.

I said, in local language. I didn't say it was in Russian. ;)
And what language is that? (Edit: I see Feanor had already addressed this point)



“Rumours” are that a North Korean General was wounded in the Ukrainian strike at Maryino.


If true, a pretty poor return on the 12 Storm Shadows.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
A scheduled session of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) for 22 November has been cancelled. Members of parliament were warned of a potential Russian strike targeting the government quarter.


Seems like someone may be “impressed” after all. Seems like Russia can cancel a Rada session any time it wants.
Drop some real nukes and cancel all kinds of sessions... it was never in doubt that Russian actions could cause a Ukrainian reaction. Presumably a massive regular strike wave aimed at Kiev could achieve a similar purpose. What's interesting is that this does in fact show some new capability and is a pretty overt threat to NATO. I'm also thinking of the... "exchange of pleasantries" between Iran and Israel where Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, and in the past at the US. Quite a few of those got through as well.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Perhaps not all were real warheads. It may have been main warhead(s) with decoys/pen-aids. And it's probably not an ICBM.
According to the Pentagon it was a intermediate-range ballistic missile.
It's already 20 years old, yet still classified as "experimental"...
How long does the Russians need to experiment?

KipPotapych said:
“Rumours” are that a North Korean General was wounded in the Ukrainian strike at Maryino.
12 Storm Shadow only to wound one NK General. LOL. The article doesn't even say that he was wounded during this attack.
If it is, then the only survivor is a NK General who went outside the bunker to smoke a cigarette... :D

Feanor said:
The village is therefore called little cellars.
Thanks for the language lesson. Comparing languages is amazing.
KipPotapych said:
And what language is that?
It's in Polish. (Noticed the little tail under the "e"?)
Indeed, graves were built like little cellars in the past, and are still in some European countries. In Eastern countries, today the coffins are usually burried and covered directly with earth.

Weren't Poland/Ukraine/Lithuania the landlords of this area a few hundred years ago?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
According to the Pentagon it was a intermediate-range ballistic missile.
It's already 20 years old, yet still classified as "experimental"...
How long does the Russians need to experiment?
A system whose existence was only recently revealed and there's already so many details... truly amazing. On a serious note, I think we need to suspend judgement on what this is until we get more information. I wouldn't be surprised if it's derived from the RS-26 but different somehow. The RS-26 itself isn't 20 years old, it's first successful launch was in 2012. And missile programs (weapons programs in general) can very well last 20+ years especially as requirements change and technology advances. Russia also had a long period in the '90s and early '00s when funding was lacking so programs were technically running but not much actual work was being done. It would make perfect sense for this to be a new missile system derived from the RS-26 whose development started sometime in the past 10-20 years and which has now reached completion.

Thanks for the language lesson. Comparing languages is amazing.

It's in Polish. (Noticed the little tail under the "e"?)
Indeed, graves were built like little cellars in the past, and are still in some European countries. In Eastern countries, today the coffins are usually burried and covered directly with earth.

Weren't Poland/Ukraine/Lithuania the landlords of this area a few hundred years ago?
I don't recall if Kursk region specifically was part of the Rzech Pospolita, but it would be possible. If we're reaching that far back, Russian itself wasn't the same language back then as it is today. For example Ivan III declared himself "ospodar' vseya Rusi" (господарь всея Руси) whereas today that would be "gospodin vsey Rusi" (господин всей Руси). We know this from the coins he had struck on that occasion. Even words like "tsar'" weren't really being used, Ivan IV declared himself Caesar not "Tsar" (after the conquest of the Golden Horde). Even in 1800s Russian literature when authors depict authentic patterns of speech from local populations (for example Dmitriy Mamin-Sibiryak) you will find language that today wouldn't quite fit modern Russian, Ukrainian, or Belorussian. And often the speakers didn't clearly identify their own language as something specific, they just didn't operate in those categories. They talked how they talked. So if you think the name goes back that far (and it might, though it well might not) then we would have to do a historic study of the circumstances of the naming and the dialect spoken in this area at that time to truly understand.

On a side note in modern Russian from nearby Voronezh region what I have heard referred to as a "pogrebok" was a small side-cellar under a house. For a long time I assumed that the words I learned were simply normal Russian, but actually there's regional specificity for many of them, so I don't really know if this is the name for that specific architectural feature or just what people in that area called them.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Note some recent events like the Russian ballistic missile strike or Ukrainian Storm Shadow use have been well covered by others. I'm going to omit things that others have posted from my updates to reduce the volume and workload in providing this. I don't want anyone to think I'm not aware of these facts or am arguing that they didn't happen because of the omission.

I'm linking an interesting article about Ukraine's strategy or lack thereof. I think it does a good job of illustrating the problem facing Ukraine today.


Chernigov region.

Russian forces have entered Chernigov region. So far this looks like a small raid as they have grabbed 4 empty villages that are held in the bend of a river that enters from Russia and returns to Russia, making the area isolated. They did however take a bridge across the river too.


Russian Vandal drone strike on something in the Chernigov border area. It might be a Ukrainian vehicle, a decoy, or something unknown.


Ukraine struck the school building where Russia raised their flag but it's not clear this is particularly significant.


Russian strikes on allegedly Ukrainian positions in Chernigov region.


Russian soldiers in Muravyi village.


Russian forces entering Chernigov region.


Kursk area.

Russian forces continue to bite off small pieces in Kursk region but nothing decisive is taking place. Russia did capture Orlovka and Novaya Sorochina. Meanwhile a Ukrainian counter-attack recaptured most of Plekhovo. If reports of a major Russian effort recently are true, then the effort is a failure.


A Russian Lancet strike on allegedly a Ukrainian PzH-2000. We can't really make it out but it looks like an SP howitzer and there's movement around it implying there's Ukrainian personnel on the ground.


Allegedly two Ukrainian POWs captured by Russian VDV in Kursk region.


Ukrainian Stryker gets hit by possiblea Lancet but survives and keeps moving. The filming is from a Russian Vandal drone.


Kursk region Russia hits two knocked out and abandoned vehicles. One is a Humvee, the other is a BREM-2. The BREM-2 is a relatively rare ARV on the BMP chassis.


Russia strikes a Bradley and a T-64BV on the move in Kursk region with Vandal drones.


FPV drone strike allegedly Russian on Ukrainian infantry near Ol'govka.


Ukrainian MBT hit in a treeline in Kursk region by a Russian drone, possibly a T-72M1.


Russian FPV drone strikes a CR-2 in Kursk region. It hits the front armor and we don't have BDA footage so it's likely the tank survived.


Russian strikes in Kursk region on a Bradley, Marder, and a tank possibly an Abrams.


Another strike on what is definitely an Abrams, Kursk region.


Russian Vandal strikes on Ukrainian Marders in Kursk region.


Ukrainian pickup with EW gets hit by a Russian drone. There is a sleeping, WIA or KIA in the back.


A series of Russian drone strikes on Bradleys in Kursk region. Note they're hitting parts protected by ERA, suggesting they're not going to be very effective.


Russian drone strike on Ukrainian infantry in the Kursk border area, allegedly they're trying to exit Kursk region.


Russian wire-guided drone flies into the open troop compartment of a Stryker as it attempts to load a wounded Ukrainian soldier.


Russian National Guard drone strike on a knocked out MaxxPro.


Russian FAB-1500 strikes, Kursk region.


Russian missile strikes near Yunakovka, Sumy region, on allegedly Ukrainian forces staging for entering Kursk region. We've seen quite a few strikes like these from Russia around the Kursk area specifically.


Another Russian missile strike (2?) on allegedly Ukrainian forces staged in Sumy region woods, this one near Pisarevka with possibly an S-300 missile.


Another Russian missile strike in Sumy, Iskander, can't really make out what they hit but it's allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


A damaged Ukrainian Bradley, Kursk region. It's unclear whether the vehicle is operational as we only get to see the turret.


A Roshel Senator destroyed and another knocked out, Kursk region.


A Ukrainian BRM-1K captured by Russian forces. Note the folded drone cage.


Allegedly a fresh batch of Ukrainian POWs from Kursk region.


A Ukrainian M1 hiding somewhere in Kursk region.


Ukrainian CV90 with a folded drone cage in Kursk region.


Ex-Polish BWP-1s in service with Ukraine's 22nd Mech. Note the triangle, this vehicle is part of Ukrainian operations in Kursk region.


Reportedly a Russian Sarmat-3 armored car in VDV service in Kursk region. Note the anti-drone netting.


A Russian T-80BVM operating in Kursk region. It's loaded with a mix of old and new HE-FRAG shells.


Russian Mal'va and 2S3 howitzers in action in Kursk region.


Ukrainian soldiers with Copperhead guided artillery shells in Kursk region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kharkov area.

Ukrainian forces attempt a counter-attack near Liptsi but get hit by Russian drones. Note many of the M113s and BMP-1s successfully disembark infantry which then gets hunted by Russian drones. Meanwhile Russian forces re-entered Sotnitskiy Kazachok in the northern part of Kharkov region.


Russian drone strike on a Stryker near Kharkov region.


Allegedly a Ukrainian MAZ truck carrying munitions taken out by a Russian FPV drone near Kharkov. We can see secondary explosions and the truck itself is completely destroyed.


A Russian Molniya loitering munition landed in Kharkov apparently without striking anything.


Russian Grad unit in Belgorod region.


Kupyansk area.

Russian forces have cleared the forest north of Kolesnikovka and are now entering Glushkovka. This path eventually leads to Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, but it's still a ways away. North of Kupyansk Russian forces have entered Kupyansk itself and are trying to consolidate their hold on the north-eastern sections of the town.


Russian assault column has broken through to Kupyansk with two BMPs, an MT-LB, and an MBT. The MT-LB is knocked out but the team dismounts.


Russian OFZAB-1500 strike in the Kupyansk area. The variety of UPMK munitions continues to expand.


Ukrainian dragon's teeth near Kovsharovka south of Kupyansk.


Oskol front.

Russian flag raising in Kopanki, south of Pervotravene.


Near Terny Russian forces have advanced east of the village in the gullies and continue to push through the village from the north, now holding about half of it. West of Nevskoe Russian forces gain ground across the Zherebets. Same with Karamzinovka.


Allegedly a Ukrainian T-72M1 burns in the Krasniy Liman area.


Ukraine is reportedly evacuating 10 villages near Borovoe.


Seversk salient.

Ukraine has recaptured Verkhnekamenskoe and and apparently holds all the area west of Belogorovka. Meanwhile on the south-western corner of the salient Russian forces have grabbed another piece approaching Fedorovka.


Chasov Yar.

A Ukrainian counter-attack has pushed Russian forces out of the mine complex south of Chasov Yar. South of there Russian forces are closing the last patches east of the canal still in Ukrainian hands. Russian forces are still across the canal in this area. North of Chasov Yar Russian forces continue to gain ground around Grigorievka.


Russian drone strikes finish off a BMP-1 near Predtechino. This is the village south-east of Stupochki towards Konstantinovka.


Russian TOS-1 strikes in the Chasov Yar area.


A Ukrainian M-80 gets hit near Chasov Yar.


Toretsk.

Russian forces have been stalled in Toretsk for some time. Ukrainian counter-attacks pushed Russian forces back in southern Toretsk, and inside Leonidovka and Scherbinovka. Ukrainian forces also re-entered the village of Druzhba to the north. Russian forces then resumed offensive actions recapturing much of the lost ground in southern Toretsk. Russian forces also broke into northern Toretsk by taking the stadium, and pushing north of it. Lastly Russian forces have taken a forest north-east of Toretsk towards the rail line.


In Toretsk Russia hits 2 Humvees, 2 pickups, and a Bushmaster with Vandal drones.


Ukraine allegedly used a drone to attack a public transit van in Gorlovka. 10 wounded civilians are reported.


Ukrainian 2S7s near Toretsk.


Some footage from inside Novgorodskoe. The village is fully under Russian control but on the front lines.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces continue to advance west and north of Pokrovsk. at this point not only Novoalekseevka, but Petrovka, Yurievka, and Grigorievka have all fallen. Russian forces have also gained consderable ground west of Pokrovsk. It's still not obvious which direction this offensive is meant to develop in. Meanwhile inside Chasov Yar Russian forces have broken into the center of town and by some reports are assaulting the factory complex there.


Russian wire-guided drone hits a Ukrainian Kozak armored car, Pokrovsk area.


Russian drone strike hits an M113 and a mortar position.


Russian FPV drone films a Molniya loitering munition strikes a Bradley in the front near Selidovo. The FPV drone then strikes the Bradley which burns.


Russia takes out apparently two AS-90s near Pokrovsk.


A destroyed Ukrainian Gurkha MEDEVAC that hit a land mine near Pokrovsk.


Russian forces are hauling away a knocked out M1 near Volchye. Note the village is well to the Russian rear and it speaks to Russia's lackluster efforts to evacuate knocked out and destroyed vehicles that it's taken this long. I am assuming that this video wasn't shot months ago.


A destroyed MaxxPro International in the Pokrovsk area.


Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian locomotive at Udachnoe near Pokrovsk. It's interesting that Ukraine still does rail operations this close to the front.


Ukrainian 2S7 Pion from the 43rd Arty Bde near Pokrovsk. Note they're firing US-made 203mm shells. Note this is the second sighting and I wonder if these aren't the same as were reported near Toretsk. The Toretsk and Chasov Yar area are adjacent and these systems are both scarce and relatively long ranged.


Ukrainian dragon's teeth deployed in Mirnograd.


Russian 2S4 operations on the Pokrovsk axis.


Russian EOD on the Pokrovsk axis. Note they're operating in the rear of Russian forces, clearing captured areas. It's interesting they have an anti-drone picket with a soldier with a Vepr'-12 shotgun.


Some footage from inside Galitsinovka, west of Donetsk.


Kurakhovo area.

North of the reservoir Russian forces continue to push westward. Il'yinka, Novaya Il'yinka, and part of Berestki have been taken. Note, Novaya Il'yinka is part of Kurakhovo, though north of the reservoir. Russian forces have captured southern Sontsovka. Inside Kurakhovo Russia now holds a third of the town. Russian forces have taken Dal'nee, south of Kurakhovo. The pocket between Kurakhovo and Bogoyavlenka is also closing as Russian forces continue to take pieces. Ukrainian forces are in the string of villages along the river there. Dal'nee is fully under Russian control and the road to Kurakhovo there is cut.


Russian assault element south of Kurakhovo consisting of an MBT with apparently a mine trawl clearing the path for a pair of BMP-2s to deliver the assault teams.


Ukrainian M113 (YPR-765?) destroyed in the eastern part of Kurakhovo.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian T-72M1 near Romanovka. This is a village along the Sukhie Yaly river, east of Uspenovka.


Russian Lancet strikes on two Leo-2A4s in the Kurakhovo area.


A destroyed T-72AV, allegedly Ukrainian, destroyed near Bogdanovka.


Either the Kurakhovo power plant got hit by a Russian strike or Ukraine blew the tower before retreating. Either one is possible.


Russian artillery strike on the Zaporozhskiy bridge in Kurakhovo.


Flooding on the country roads near Kurakhovo after the recent dam demolition by Ukrainian forces.


Russian TOS-2 operations near Shahtersk.


Some footage from inside Gornyak. Like Selidovo, Ukrainsk, and Novogrodovka, this town was captured with relatively little fighting and is mostly still standing.


Allegedly a captured Ukrainian position in Yasnaya Polyana, south of Kurakhovo.


Velikaya Novoselka.

This is the former Vremyevskiy Bulge area where Russian forces are now approaching Velikaya Novoselka across a wide front from the south east, east, and north east. Russian forces are now two tree lines away from the eastern outskirts, and are one treeline away from Razdol'noe. It's also likely there aren't good defenses from the east there. South-west of the village Russian forces have taken Rovnopol' and are attacking Novodarievka. Even as Russian forces advance Ukraine has counter-attacked and recaptured Makarovka. This isn't the particularly significant portion of the area, the real threat is Russian advances north-east of Velikaya Novoselka.


Russian assault team captures Ukrainian POWs near Rovnopol'.


Russian drone drop on Ukrainian infantry.


Russian FPV drone strike on a Ukrainian T-64 near Razdol'noe.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye.

Russia continues to advance towards Orekhov in Zaporozhye. There's still quite a distance to go but they're now advancing outside the original Rabotino salient. Russian forces have also bitten off a few more pieces near Gulyaypole, but these gains are not significant.


Illustrating the realities of this war, Russia hits a Ukrainian T-72M1 with 4 FPV drones, one after another.


Russian strike on what appears to be a HIMARS in Zaporozhye area.


Russian anti-drone team from the 1430th MRRgt in Zaporozhye. Note the shotgun, it can't be a normal military supplied weapon.


Dnepr front.

Russia is hunting Ukrainian drone operators in the Kherson area. They often wait for Ukrainian operators to collect drones on return trips to confirm the location.


Russian LMUR strike on the Nikol'skoe substation in Kherson region.


Russian Kh-39 strike in Kherson on allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.


Crimea/Black Sea.

Russia is deploying new floating barriers to protect harbors from Ukrainian boats.


Strikes.

A Russian strike landing in Krivoy Rog, possibly a Kinzhal.


Russia hit a Ukrainian defense factory in Shostka. The factory is north of Sumy, but I'm not including it in the fighting around Kursk because it's geographically removed and not related.


Russia strikes a Ukrainian airbase near Dnepropetrovsk, possibly catching a MiG-29. It's covered by netting and there appear to be personnel around, so it's probably not a decoy but it's hard to be sure.


Allegedly a Russian strike on Dnepropetrovsk using Iskander.


Russian strike on Krasniy Liman allegedly hitting a staging area for foreign fighters.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian pontoon bridge near Raygorodok, while a vehicle is moving on it. This bridge is across the Severskiy Donets river, near Slavyansk.


Russia struck an unnamed industrial facility in Poltava.


Russian strike landing in Zaporozhye. Targets unclear.


Fragments of a Tsirkon hypersonic missile in Kiev after recent strikes.


A Russian decoy fished out of the reservoir near Kiev after recent Russian strikes.


Ukrainian AAA firing, Kiev.


Russian strikes landing on the hydroelectric powerplant in Kremenchug and some battle damage footage after. If the dam gets destroyed, there could be substantial flooding.


Russia struck the Rovno substation.


Air defense fires in Odessa.


Russia struck Odessa, where some of the Patriot stages fell on the city causing damage and reportedly 10 civilian casualties.


Russia downing Ukrainian UAVs near Akhtubinsk. There is a major military airfield near there.


Recent Russian Kh-101 strikes reportedly went through Moldavian airspace.


Female Ukrainian MANPADS operators firing during recent Russian strikes.


Ukrainian UAVs struck defense industry targets in Voronezh and Belgorod region.


UXO in Voronezh region after recent Ukrainian strikes there.


Russia is expanding construction of HAS at various airbases.


A downed Russian Gerber decoy with a camera and a warhead.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Russia hits another BMP-1TS this one with robust anti-drone cages. This variant uses a new Ukrainian unmanned turret and is very scarce.


An interesting video of a Russian UAV with a secondary camera on top that coordinates dodging maneuvers when Ukraine attempts to intercept.


Russian Sarmat-3 armored cars continue to show up, suggesting that at least one batch was delivered to the front lines. This one has an anti-drone cage and an EW system. Note they're not really replacements for MRAPs or APCs, rather they're basic transport and front line logistics.


New Russian loitering munition, Molniya-2 has been shown to the public. This is an upgrade of the low end Molniya drone.


Russian forces have started improvising mine trawls for BMPs. It's possible that a centralized design was sent out for them to use. Note both vehicles have the new extra armor kits though the BMP has some sort of improvised cages instead of the factory-provided ones over the armor panels. It's unclear what's being done with the factory cages.


Russian forces training with a captured Bradley. Note it already got a Russian-style drone cage, suggesting this isn't OPFOR.


Russian soldiers have been spotted with Turkish shotguns, unclear how they were acquired.


Ukraine's 41st Independent Mech Bde with an MT-LBu repurposed as an APC, and Czech RPG-75s.


Ukraine's 3rd Assault Bde (former Azov Rgt) shows off a MaxxPro with a mine trawl.


Ukraine's 30th Mech Bde shows off a RG-1 grenade launcher.


Ukraine's 120th Assault Rgt 33rd Assault Btln shows off their new Alakran mortars.


Ukraine's 107th Rocket-Arty Bde firing their M270.


Ukraine's 3rd Tanks shows off a T-84. Pre-war only 6 of these tanks were in service with only 5 in working condition. Production hasn't really been going on since then making this quite the unicorn.


Czech Dita howitzers have shown up in Ukraine. They were announced some time ago.


Ex-Slovak Mi-17 in Ukrainian service.


Ukraine's new 155th Mech is finishing up training in France. We have some more footage of their AMX-10RCs, VABs, and Caesar howitzers.


Ukraine has apparently received their CB90 boats and they're now in Odessa.


Reportedly Germany will supply Ukraine with 4 000 either AQ 100 Bayonet or HX-2 Karma loitering munitions.


Reportedly Canada has handed over another NASAMS to Ukraine based on funding approved in January of 2023.


Ukrainian sources claim that Mariupol' now has a third of it's pre-war population. Note that means a city of ~150 000.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Russian soldiers have been spotted with Turkish shotguns, unclear how they were acquired.

I have no personal experience with the Russian shotguns, but there is about zero chance I would trust a Turkish shotgun even at a friendly competition shooting clays. Of course, beggars can’t be choosers, but still.

Pokrovsk area.

Russian forces continue to advance west and north of Pokrovsk. at this point not only Novoalekseevka, but Petrovka, Yurievka, and Grigorievka have all fallen. Russian forces have also gained consderable ground west of Pokrovsk. It's still not obvious which direction this offensive is meant to develop in. Meanwhile inside Chasov Yar Russian forces have broken into the center of town and by some reports are assaulting the factory complex there.
I am not sure if intentional, but there is Chasov Yar mention in the very beginning of the Pokrovsk section. Just thought I would bring it up in case it was not intentional.

On this note, thanks for the update. It is a massive one!

Drop some real nukes and cancel all kinds of sessions... it was never in doubt that Russian actions could cause a Ukrainian reaction. Presumably a massive regular strike wave aimed at Kiev could achieve a similar purpose. What's interesting is that this does in fact show some new capability and is a pretty overt threat to NATO. I'm also thinking of the... "exchange of pleasantries" between Iran and Israel where Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, and in the past at the US. Quite a few of those got through as well.
But now it is a phone call away!

Seriously though, the Rada part was mostly said in jest (related to the “no one was impressed” comment). It is, however, valid enough, in my opinion. The fact that Rada cancelled a scheduled session because of this particular threat is meaningful. Embassies, including American, closing their doors because of the intel about this particular threat is also meaningful. Neither has happened in a long time in Kyiv. We can assume that the latter event happened due to the potential risk of a nuclear strike (highly unlikely though, in my opinion), the former was definitely a reaction to what we have seen.

While we all (I think all?) know that Rada and other “critical political” infrastructure is still there because it hasn’t really ever been targeted, one or two of these missiles with (real) conventional payloads should probably be more effective - in terms of both, the desired result and cost - than a usual massive strike that we are now used to, when “aiming” at a place like this:

View attachment 52032

Precise accuracy is not an issue here. What I am trying to say is that this is an actual threat, a new threat, to the Ukrainian infrastructure that they have no means to defend against.

Last thing related to the impressions that there were none of part. Ukraine had requested a meeting with NATO due to this event (scheduled for the 26th of November), in Ukrainian:


They are going to ask for THAAD now (good luck wth getting any of those; in other words, it ain’t happening). Under a paywall, so the relevant part:

Ukraine is waiting for experts to confirm the type of missile that was used, the country’s Foreign Ministry said later on Thursday. Kyiv will ask its Western partners for air defense systems capable of intercepting ICBMs, the ministry’s spokesman said.

One of the systems Ukraine could ask for is the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system produced by Lockheed Martin Corp, the spokesman said.



An interesting statement from Budanov (by the way, this is the first time I heard of him in weeks, after all the “rumours” of him soon to follow fate of Zaluzhny):

GUR chief Kyrylo Budanov said Friday that the missile is experimental and that Ukraine knows that at least two test versions were set to be made. The missile is not yet in “series production, thank God,” he said Friday.

“The fact that they used it in a nuclear-free version is, as they say, a warning from them, that they are not completely crazy,” he said.


Podolyak, in a not imressed fashion, being Podolyak:

“This is all testing,” Podolyak said. “And now there is a new attempt — an intercontinental attack on the civilian population. What’s next?”

Both quotes are from the the same article:


Podolyak, by the way, insists that no “Oreshnik” exists and Putin, being delusional, makes up names for the ICBM missiles that Russia has plenty of. This is from the interview that the part quoted in the article above was cited from (in Ukrainian):


I do completely agree in regard to the threat to NATO. I am sure there will have to be some recalculations made about defense related to this development.

Anyway, I do not think anyone is going to hit Rada or the presidential palace in the immediate future, be it with these “new” missiles or anything else. Overall, I do agree with this reasoning a fair bit:

IMG_8051.jpeg

Source: x.com

Yet I do believe this is also a new and a real threat to Ukraine as well. Not that it is going to be the new norm, but definitely something to be aware of.


There have recently been some reports of the North Korean troops being in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Zaporozhie, among many other places. One Ukrainian official said recently that they are all over the front now or something like that. This is extremely unlikely (I would call it idiotic, personally) and there was now a confirmation that there are no NK troops in Kharkiv, at least:

Contrary to recent reports by Ukrainian media, there is currently no North Korean military presence in Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainian military said on Nov. 22.

The statement was issued by Kharkiv Operational Group, which coordinates Ukrainian defense forces in the region.

“We inform you that the statement about the presence of North Korean military personnel in Kharkiv Oblast does not correspond to reality,” the Telegram post said.




There are now reports (I would say it is confirmed at this point) that the Russians are in Velika Novosilka and things are evolving relatively quickly. This map of fortifications shows why this is the case and why it is important for the Ukrainians to hold it “at all costs”:

IMG_7988.jpeg

Source for the map: x.com. In red are trenches, in yellow are the anti-tank ditches, and blue are dragon teeth (the latter two have very little meaning currently, in my opinion).

Some may remember that I talked about that a couple of months ago, more or less: when the Pokrovsk offensive “had stalled”. This is arguably the worst case scenario (in the current circumstances) for Ukraine slowly unravelling. We will see what happens. They clearly need substantial reinforcements in the area, but they reportedly keep sending them to Kursk.


Last thing that is completely irrelevant, really. My Polish is extremely limited, as in I know a few words and can catch some others in a conversation (the conversation that I would not understand, really). However, I am fairly certain that “grave” in Polish is “grob” and “pogrebki” may refer to the process of burial, but not a grave itself. What I know for a fact is that Kursk itself was never captured by the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Whether the area where Pogrebki is was ever controlled by them, I have no idea; if it was, likely not long enough to establish some names that are used today. I also know for a fact that Polish is not a “local language” there. Feanor is correct in saying that the name likely refers to “cellars”. I think there are one or two more villages with this name in both Russia and Ukraine. They all refer to the same thing, which is “cellars”. It would be interesting if someone from Poland chimed in on this irrelevant discussion, as far as this thread is concerned. But it sure is interesting (to me).
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
@KipPotapych

You have chosen a very confusing map.
Sorry, maybe wasn’t clear. The map was chosen for the illustration of the fortifications, which explains why the front is moving the way it is. Also shows why it is very important to hold Velika Novosilka.

Most maps show more or less the same thing in terms of location of the frontline, just different representation. There was fighting within the city limits reported yesterday for the first time.

This map is from 12 or so hours ago:

IMG_8054.jpeg

Source: x.com

This one is from 12 hours ago as well:

IMG_8055.jpeg

Source: x.com

This one is from 3 or so hours ago:

IMG_8056.jpeg

Source: x.com

This is another illustration of why Velika Novosilka is important:

IMG_8058.jpeg

Source: x.com

Russians are going to grab a huge chunk of land within the next couple/few months if nothing changes. It actually all evolved faster than I thought it would when I talked about it a couple of months ago. The southern front will not hold either if they are permitted to attack from the east and south simultaneously. I guess it is open to interpretation what happens from there on.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I have no personal experience with the Russian shotguns, but there is about zero chance I would trust a Turkish shotgun even at a friendly competition shooting clays. Of course, beggars can’t be choosers, but still.
We've seen Russian soldiers with breech-loading double-barrel hunting pieces. We've also seen anti-drone pickets without a shotgun just carrying an AK. I think they will use what they can get.

There are now reports (I would say it is confirmed at this point) that the Russians are in Velika Novosilka and things are evolving relatively quickly. This map of fortifications shows why this is the case and why it is important for the Ukrainians to hold it “at all costs”:

View attachment 52035

Source for the map: x.com. In red are trenches, in yellow are the anti-tank ditches, and blue are dragon teeth (the latter two have very little meaning currently, in my opinion).

Some may remember that I talked about that a couple of months ago, more or less: when the Pokrovsk offensive “had stalled”. This is arguably the worst case scenario (in the current circumstances) for Ukraine slowly unravelling. We will see what happens. They clearly need substantial reinforcements in the area, but they reportedly keep sending them to Kursk.
The section along which Russian troops are steadily advancing has widened pretty drastically. It started as a push west of Avdeevka, well that corridor is still pushing just west of Selidovo now. But they're also pushing south of it in the Kurakhovo area and now in the Velikaya Novoselka area. We may see November be another record month for Russian gains. It's to the point where they're making napoleonic plans for reconstruction in Donetsk now that the front line has moved, and we're likely to see the rail line Donetsk-Mariupol' re-open. So it's generally good for Russia. But it's not catastrophically bad for Ukraine. The main problem Ukraine continues to face is lack of resources and lack of manpower. The territorial losses are symptoms of those root causes. I think we will see some sort of attempt by Ukraine to change the pattern over the next 6 months. It might mean lowering the mobilization age, or trying to get the west involved more directly somehow. One of the things with Russia's successes in the Donbas is that while they achieve Russia's stated goals in the war, they don't necessarily force a Ukrainian surrender.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Kursk area.

Russian forces continue to bite off small pieces in Kursk region but nothing decisive is taking place. Russia did capture Orlovka and Novaya Sorochina. Meanwhile a Ukrainian counter-attack recaptured most of Plekhovo.
Ukrainians manage to make small advances in the east of the Kursk salient (east of Sudzha). These advances are small and don't compensate for the losses in the north and the west, but show that Ukrainians are not desperate and are able of initiative.

Feanor said:
Kurakhovo area.

North of the reservoir Russian forces continue to push westward. Il'yinka, Novaya Il'yinka, and part of Berestki have been taken. Note, Novaya Il'yinka is part of Kurakhovo, though north of the reservoir. Russian forces have captured southern Sontsovka. Inside Kurakhovo Russia now holds a third of the town. Russian forces have taken Dal'nee, south of Kurakhovo. The pocket between Kurakhovo and Bogoyavlenka is also closing as Russian forces continue to take pieces. Ukrainian forces are in the string of villages along the river there. Dal'nee is fully under Russian control and the road to Kurakhovo there is cut.
Ukrainians retreat from the entire area south of the Kurakhove reservoir: Between Dalne in the north and Trudove in the south-west.
Russians are also pushing from the east. They have reached Romanivka (if I spell it correctly), in the string of villages aligned east-west.

Feanor said:
Velikaya Novoselka.

This is the former Vremyevskiy Bulge area where Russian forces are now approaching Velikaya Novoselka across a wide front from the south east, east, and north east.
The fall of Vuhledar caused a rapid advance in this area. Velikaya Novoselka and Kurakhove are the areas where Russian advances are the most important in speed and real estate taken.
The fact that Leo-2A4s are seen in these areas shows that Ukrainian commanders don't let this part of the front without modern weapons.
They didn't send everything to Kursk.
___________________
Feanor said:
On a side note in modern Russian from nearby Voronezh region what I have heard referred to as a "pogrebok" was a small side-cellar under a house. For a long time I assumed that the words I learned were simply normal Russian, but actually there's regional specificity for many of them, so I don't really know if this is the name for that specific architectural feature or just what people in that area called them.
The common name in Russian for a cellar is "padval". That's the word I heard the most often. My wife who is a native Russian speaker explained to me that "pogrebok" is a traditional, albeit still in use, word which refers to a food cache under the kitchen in villages or to a semi underground food storage under a tumulus. Whereas "padval" refers to an underground floor under a building or a modern house, where you will find technical installations, and where you can also store food if you want. Conclusion: If you visited Russia in rural areas, you may have heard the word "pogrebok" more often.
 
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