The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Fredled]

Not a lot of change in the last 3 days according to Heinrich Torsten's last report.
His map still shows the Olgovska forest, in the Kursk region, where Ukrainians are supposed to be encircled still attached to the rest of the territory under their control.
If they were really encircled or cut off for over a week since Russian claimed it, the area should be under firm Russian control by now. It's probably grey zone or in the process of being evacuated by Ukrainians.

South of Kupiansk, east of the Oksil river, Kolisnikivka has fallen. Meaning that Russians are increasing their presence there and forming a cauldron where Ukrainians could be trapped if they don't withdraw on time.

Russians also pushed north-west of Selidove, Pokrovsk region.

The Kurakhove cauldron is slowly closing down on Ukrainian troops still there, with the fall of Dalne.
Russian are closing the gap dangerously from the south of the cauldron too, by taking Konstantinopolskie.

At least in two areas, Russians manage to encircle Ukrainians. This could lead to sudden big gains for the Russians. Yet nothing disastrous because it will be limited to these specific areas.
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"If the U.S. agrees to use ATACMs without restrictions, then Ukraine has various options. For example, it could try to destroy the bridge to Crimea,

The Crimean Bridge was not under restriction. Its left part is on Ukrainian territory.
link
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This year, Ukrainian manufacturers have already produced the first hundred missiles and have successfully scaled up serial production of R-360 Neptune cruise missiles.
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Your logic that Ukrainian currency and economy that rely on Western hand out is going to be better then Russian one that are relatively have much more solid ground then Ukrainian ones, is simply not add up on any market logic.

I'm not comparing Ukraine's economy with Russia's economy since they are radically different. It's ludicrous to try to say that one will be better than the other.

The main difference is that Ukraine's economy is in shambles because Putin bombards the country relentlessly with all types of long range missiles and artillery. It's ridiculous to say that the Ukrainian economy is worse than the Russia economy while Russia is detroying it with salvoes of ballistic missiles and anything he can throw.

After the war one can expect a boom in the Ukrainian economy and massive investor inflow, especialy in the context of joining the EU. Post war reconstruction is always good for the economy. The population will return massively.

Russia's economy has degradated sharply since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 because it's ruled by idiots. Putin is not the only idiot there: All those who support him are. And there is no sign that it's about to change. Russia's economy was already not very good compared to other oil exporting countries. Russia doesn't export only oil and gas, but also gold, weapons, coal, rare earths/ precious metals and weath. With all these natural resources, it realy takes an unprecedented level of idiocy to get where Russia is at the moment. Russia needs USD and EUR just as anybody else. Of course they can live without if they feel like it. North Koreans just do it fine, don't they?
How Russia will do after the war will depends on their political decisions. If the same bunch of morons is still there and keep on with their defiant stance while thinking that they are the best, I don't see anything good for the future of Russia, honestly.

 

[Ananda]

not comparing Ukraine's economy with Russia's economy since they are radically different. It's ludicrous to try to say that one will be better than the other.

When you clearly are talking how Russia economies will be down after the war, and Ukranian economy will be rebound and gain Investors trust base on Western hand put, that's clear comparing.

Again what I state are it is ilogical to say Ukraine economy will be gain better traction from Investors then Russia one after the war, simply because Western support. That's not how enticing Financial Market (thus Investors) on gaining trusts. Especially with Ukranian track record before the war, during the war, and definitely not going to change much after the war.

Russian economies not being manage well is not a secret, and I clearly say from time to time. However saying Ukrainian is in much better prospect after the war, is also base on wish and not base on track record logic. Again both are handled similar ways of corrupt oligarchs that full of thieves. Saying one will be better then other, is clearly illogical and rediculous. Both are in similar boats of corruption and thievery environment.

 

[seaspear]

So how is it on the previous posted graphs of corruption Ukraines rates slightly better than Indonesia?

 

[Ananda]

What's you point ? What's got to do with Ukraine and Russia corruption? The 2021 graph shown Russia index is 29, Ukraine 32, Indonesia 38. So Indonesia bit better, but doesn't hide the fact Indonesia like most Global South is a corrupt nation.

Corruption index mostly base on perception on business doing their activities against bureaucracy effectiveness. The higher your income per capita then more likely your corruption index is better. So, what's your point to compare Ukraine with Indonesia ? That's nothing to do on the fact both Ukraine and Russia are corrupt nations just like many in Global South.

Just like Western Europe that are richer then Eastern Europe in average has better Corruption index. Perhaps you better ponder on that.

 

[rsemmes]

White House leaks to US media on Sunday night indicate that Biden, with two months of his presidency left to run, has given permission for Atacms missiles, which have a range of 190 miles (300km), to be used inside Russia. However, there is an apparent qualification: they must be used in relation to the battle in Kursk oblast. There, Russia, with the help of North Korea, has massed about 50,000 troops and is aiming to snuff out Ukraine’s three-month incursion.

Letting Ukraine fire missiles into Russia unlikely to have decisive effect

Military and political consequences of allowing Kyiv to use Atacms missiles remain uncertain

www.theguardian.com

Already, "something" hit a "missiles depot", but that permission seems to be very little "permissive"; for a very limited number of missiles.
I wonder now, if it's a move against NK more than anything.

 

[PachkaSigaret]

Apparent footage of the first use of ATACAMS on an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region.

x.com

Now we wait to see if there is an actual escalatory kinetic response this time. I'm curious if it'll just be more sabre rattling, and the Ru MoD being rather dismissive of such strikes.

 

[Rob c]

Just like Western Europe that are richer then Eastern Europe in average has better Corruption index. Perhaps you better ponder on that.

The Eastern Europe nations spent a significant part of their recent history under the control of the USSR and that would have had a significant bearing on both their wealth and would have normalised the corrupt practices from that era.
Also the question must be asked is are nations less corrupt because they are wealthy or more wealthy because they are less corrupt? My personal view is the latter, though of course their are my other factors involved.

 

[Fredled]

Apparent footage of the first use of ATACAMS on an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region.

Ukraine hit Russian ammo depot in Bryansk; no signs of ATACMS use

The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the attack, stating that 12 drones had been downed by Russian air defenses.
....
Bryansk’s Governor, Alexander Bogomaz, stated that the attack did not result in casualties or significant damage. However, local reports from residents of Karachev, the town where the depot is located, have mentioned explosions and detonations,

According to pro-Ukrainian Canal13, the attack on Bryansk's arsenal was made with drones (not ATACMS). They quote Briansk's governor.

Already, "something" hit a "missiles depot", but that permission seems to be very little "permissive"

They have around 100 ATACMS missiles. It's not a lot. But they can do a lot of damages if used smartly.
Everything will depends on how many ATACMS Ukraine will get on top of these ones.
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Ukraine:
Drone attack on Hlukhiv kills 12 civilians

Since February 2022, at least 12,164 civilians have been killed, including over 600 children. At least 26,871 others have been injured.

And these are just the confirmed numbers. The actual death toll is likely much higher.

link

Over 1,000 days, 1,369 air raids were announced in Kyiv, with a total duration of 1,553 hours.

During this period, the Russian forces used more than 2,500 missiles and drones against the capital of Ukraine.

link

The number of personnel in the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has increased threefold. The qualitative composition has also changed significantly. For instance, the number of officers has increased by approximately threefold, the number of contract officers has grown by 20%, and the number of privates and non-commissioned officers has risen nearly sixfold.

The number of cadets undergoing training in higher military educational institutions of the Ground Forces Command has grown by one third, and the number of women has increased by 30%.

link

About the Kursk Offensive:

Prior to the launch of our operation, a group of up to 4,000 troops was sufficient for the enemy to maintain control of this sector of the front line and engage in demonstration actions. Approximately half of the group consisted of conscripts. As a result of the Ukrainian Defense Forces' offensive operations over the past three months, the enemy has been forced to expand the group by relocating units and subunits from other sectors and operational reserves. Currently, the enemy group in the Kursk region is estimated at approximately 50,000 troops. The majority of these troops are marines and airborne forces, which are regarded as the most combat-ready.

Over the three months of the operation in the Kursk region, the enemy has relocated one division, two brigades and one regiment of airborne troops, as well as two brigades and one regiment of marines.
The enemy continues to deploy manpower to the Kursk region.

In order to fulfil the objective of regaining control over the territory of the Kursk region in the shortest possible time, another division is being relocated. This is the 76th Airborne Division, which consists of three regiments with a total of about 7,500 troops,

link
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@Ananda The Ukrainian economy will boom the day the war stops. International support is precisely what will attract private investors.
The other traction is the process of EU membership accession. Just the start of the process will attract investors. And Ukraine won't join the EU if they keep the same corruption rating as Russia. Corruption in Ukraine is a Russian inheritage. It's true that Ukrainians and Russian are the same people. But the war is going to change that. Russia is becoming an Asian country, with an Asian/Arab style economy and an Asian/Arab style corruption.
(I say "Arab" because there are many similarities with Arab economies. Not about religion.)
While Ukraine is going to be an European country and an European style economy.

 

[seaspear]

It was your statements that Ukraine was more corrupt than Russia , I presented data showing otherwise even articles going to the lengths Ukraine was attempting to fight corruption that had effected its ratings positively ,I could go into how Russia's military has been seriously effected by such corruption ,not to suggest there is not in the Ukraine certainly there has been action taken against those who were ,
Corruption can often be the abuse of entrusted power for private gain its not that the countries are richer or poorer there are many factors influencing this including lack of accountability of those in power

 

[Feanor]

Not a lot of change in the last 3 days according to Heinrich Torsten's last report.
His map still shows the Olgovska forest, in the Kursk region, where Ukrainians are supposed to be encircled still attached to the rest of the territory under their control.
If they were really encircled or cut off for over a week since Russian claimed it, the area should be under firm Russian control by now. It's probably grey zone or in the process of being evacuated by Ukrainians.

South of Kupiansk, east of the Oksil river, Kolisnikivka has fallen. Meaning that Russians are increasing their presence there and forming a cauldron where Ukrainians could be trapped if they don't withdraw on time.

Russians also pushed north-west of Selidove, Pokrovsk region.

The Kurakhove cauldron is slowly closing down on Ukrainian troops still there, with the fall of Dalne.
Russian are closing the gap dangerously from the south of the cauldron too, by taking Konstantinopolskie.

At least in two areas, Russians manage to encircle Ukrainians. This could lead to sudden big gains for the Russians. Yet nothing disastrous because it will be limited to these specific areas.

I would disagree. I think there has been a notable change. There has been a series of Ukrainian counter-attacks. Ukrainian forces recaptured Makarovka south of Velikaya Novoselka, back and forth continues in Toretsk, they've recaptured the mine complex south of Chasov Yar, and they've recaptured ground in the Seversk salient. Overall Russian forces are still gaining ground but there has been a change. It's been a long time since we've seen this many Ukrainian counter-attacks. One possibility is that Ukraine has sent reserves to the front.

 

[Fredled]

The attack on Briansk's arsenal seems to have been done with ATACMS, despite initial report of a drone attack by the Briansk Governor:

Here are the latest developments:

•Ukraine’s strike: At 3:25 a.m. local time Tuesday, Kyiv fired six ballistic missiles at a facility in Bryansk, according to Russia’s defense ministry. Russian air defenses said they shot down five of the missiles and another was damaged. Fragments from the damaged missile fell on the territory of a military facility, causing a fire. Two US officials said Ukraine hit a Russian weapons arsenal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow will view launches of US-made missiles as a “new phase of war” by the West.

link

link (NY Times)
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I would disagree. I think there has been a notable change. .... It's been a long time since we've seen this many Ukrainian counter-attacks. One possibility is that Ukraine has sent reserves to the front.

Yes, in this sens, it's a notable change. I think, it could also be new brigades, freshly trained abroad, arriving.
This notable change allows changes to the front line to be small.

 

[Ananda]

Eastern Europe nations spent a significant part of their recent history under the control of the USSR and that would have had a significant bearing on both their wealth and would have normalised the corrupt practices from that era.

Exactly, corruption eradicate is part of society building. There's no corruption index changes miracle as changing corruption not only changing law implementation but also changing society mentality. It is generational work out including education changes, income improvement and more importantly mind set changes.

For that I put 2021 index on Russia and Ukraine corruption index as benchmark. Index perception being taken on war situation is very questionable. As the index methodology being taken by perception on doing businesses during normal bureaucracy condition.

was your statements that Ukraine was more corrupt than Russia

Where do I say Ukraine was more corrupt then Russia ? Don't try to twist people opinion because you don't like their opinion. I say from time to time they are in similar boat of corruption environment with similar Oligarchs thievery mentality. That's not saying Ukraine is more corrupt then Russia.

Data during war and especially coming from Zelensky regime has similar trustworthy quality from data that coming from Putin regime. Western bias on Zelensky regime make the data on Ukraine in western media this days also questionable. Not different then data on Russia coming from information regulated by Putin regime.

Western media put Ukraine regime as very corrupt before the war, and miraculously now saying the regime is beacon of democracy and opened with corruption reduction ? Questionable indeed.

 

[seaspear]

Exactly, corruption eradicate is part of society building. There's no corruption index changes miracle as changing corruption not only changing law implementation but also changing society mentality. It is generational work out including education changes, income improvement and more importantly mind set changes.

For that I put 2021 index on Russia and Ukraine corruption index as benchmark. Index perception being taken on war situation is very questionable. As the index methodology being taken by perception on doing businesses during normal bureaucracy condition.



Where do I say Ukraine was more corrupt then Russia ? Don't try to twist people opinion because you don't like their opinion. I say from time to time they are in similar boat of corruption environment with similar Oligarchs thievery mentality. That's not saying Ukraine is more corrupt then Russia.

Data during war and especially coming from Zelensky regime has similar trustworthy quality from data that coming from Putin regime. Western bias on Zelensky regime make the data on Ukraine in western media this days also questionable. Not different then data on Russia coming from information regulated by Putin regime.

Western media put Ukraine regime as very corrupt before the war, and miraculously now saying the regime is beacon of democracy and opened with corruption reduction ? Questionable indeed.

Um last monday where you stated that Ukraine was "just as much corrupt or even more"

 

[Ananda]

last monday where you stated that Ukraine was "just as much corrupt or even more"

My stress mostly on 'as much', as 'even more' back on perception on each market players. Perhaps my English but my point is they (Ukrainian) are no betterment then Russian in handling corruption.

If you want to play word on word then you also not answering what's the point to bring Indonesia as example in Russian vs Ukraine corruption environment.

In the end all this back to questionable assumption that Ukraine economy will do better then Russia after the war. Simply because one has Western back up and other has rivalry with Western power.

 

[rsemmes]

I remember reading, even if I don't have the link, that NATO told Ukraine that it is too corrupt to join. My guess is that it will be the same thing regarding the EU.
Even if Ukraine is not as corrupt as Russia, the point is that there is too much corruption. I don't think being number 10 or number 12 is the issue.

Edit
After a gsearch:

Ukraine Is Still Too Corrupt to Join the West

The strategy of winning the war by joining Western institutions has one big, homegrown hurdle.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[vikingatespam]

The attack on Briansk's arsenal seems to have been done with ATACMS, despite initial report of a drone attack by the Briansk Governor:
link

If a RU official claims 5 of 6 ATACMS shot down with the 6th coincidentally causing major damage as debris - color me doubtful right from the start.

 

[swerve]

The video online looks like major explosions, the sort of thing you might get from explosions in an ammo depot. A bit more than a fire . . . .

 

[Rob c]

Exactly, corruption eradicate is part of society building. There's no corruption index changes miracle as changing corruption not only changing law implementation but also changing society mentality. It is generational work out including education changes, income improvement and more importantly mind set changes.

I agree with this and that is why we cannot expect over night miracles in this regard. The elimination of corruption from any society is a multi generational effort which can easily be undone if not pursued fully to the end. Just introducing law changes will not suffice, the effort must be continuous and a small number of people or politicians in high places can easily undo everything with their greed.

 

[John Fedup]

I agree with this and that is why we cannot expect over night miracles in this regard. The elimination of corruption from any society is a multi generational effort which can easily be undone if not pursued fully to the end. Just introducing law changes will not suffice, the effort must be continuous and a small number of people or politicians in high places can easily undo everything with their greed.

EU membership depends on Ukraine addressing corruption and NATO entry would be more likely if EU membership is granted. A long process IMO.

 

[Fredled]

Ukrainians have used Storm Shadows inside Russia for the first time, in the Kursk Oblast. The target was a building looking like an old palace, previousely used as a sanatorium according to this Times Radio guest. They threw around 10 Storm Shadows at this target alone. That's an impressive use of ressources, given that they have only a few dozen of them. So this should be a very important target. Probably a headquarter where generals were meeting at the time of the attack.

Ukraine reported a strike on Command Post in Gubkin, Belgorod Region. No detail are provided. But it could be one more western missile use.

On the battlefield: In Kursk, Russians are advancing south of Pogrębki (Little Graves in local language...)
In the east, they have advanced up to the center of Toresk.
In the Kurakhove cauldron, they are closing the grip further. Ukrainians have already evacuated the east of the area north of the reservoir.

Ukrainians gained some ground (a few hundred meters or up to 1km) into a forested area south west of Vovchansk.

North Koreans in Kursk:

I think they [the Russians] had to agree to this under difficult conditions, likely making concessions, providing bonuses, openly humiliating themselves. The combat capability of these units is quite questionable, given the specifics of North Korea.

Our estimates suggest there are more than 10,000 [North Korean soldiers]. The Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminate more than 1,000 [enemy troops] daily. This means their contingent is a resource for about ten days. We feel quite confident in the Kursk region. When operations involving these troops begin, and we implement our countermeasures, we'll see what they are worth. But for now, I don't expect anything dangerous from them.

link

Germany has handed over another military aid package
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EU membership depends on Ukraine addressing corruption and NATO entry would be more likely if EU membership is granted. A long process IMO.

Exactly. This is topic #1 since they started talking about it 10 years ago. Ukraine has made multiple changes to their legislation to match EU norms. They have also arrested score of high ranking civil servants, politicians, military officers and judges. Most of these arrest happened since 2022. Corruption is not whiped out, of course, but embezzelment and kickback can't be practiced anymore within everyone's knowledge and tacit tolerance anymore. Yet, EU membership is still years away. EU officials have made it abundantly clear, while the Ukrainian side constantly brag about meeting EU membership requirements or some high portion of them.

NATO membership is much easier. Not easy, but easier than joining the EU and will likely happens earlier. NATO is mainly a question of military procurement, coordination and mutual defence. Of course questions like corruption and human rights weight in but not as heavily as to enter the EU. To enter the EU, you have to meet a multitude of economic, environmental, social, legislative, commercial, industrial, banking, trading and monetary requirements on top of considerations about democracy, independence of the judiciary, freedom of press, private data use and human right. Turkey is in NATO since 1952. Yet, it's not even remotely close to join the EU despite several decades of talks.

The elimination of corruption from any society is a multi generational effort

Generations are evolving very fast in eastern Europe and Ukraine is like eastern Europe circa 1990 (war notwithstanding). People change a lot. If they get a decent salary, they are not trying to trick their clients or partners for a few hundred dollars. Low and mid level corruption will recede and eventually disappear as the economy and the mentalities evolve.
At the high level, it's another story. There, you will always have corruption because there is corruption at the high level in every country, including and especially in the EU.