The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Ukrainians have used Storm Shadows inside Russia for the first time, in the Kursk Oblast. The target was a building looking like an old palace, previousely used as a sanatorium according to this Times Radio guest. They threw around 10 Storm Shadows at this target alone. That's an impressive use of ressources, given that they have only a few dozen of them. So this should be a very important target. Probably a headquarter where generals were meeting at the time of the attack.

If that was the target, then all 10 missiles that landed missed it.

The target most likely was the two buildings (I suspect it could just as well be one of them, if the target was actually a command post, and some missiles simply missed, or it could be just the barracks) not far from the “old palace” because those two buildings are the ones that got hit. Confirmation from the UAV and geolocation in these posts:

x.com

x.com

Pogrębki (Little Graves in local language...)

The word has nothing to do with “graves”, neither big nor little (or anything else to do with burials or death or whatever).

In Kursk, while no significant advances have been made by Russia lately, the Ukrainian controlled territory and the grey zone, as reported by Deepstate, changed quite a bit in the past couple of days.



As for North Koreans, note that aside from reports, mostly by the Ukrainian officials and top rank (who lie almost every time their mouths are open), we have not seen any actual evidence of them participating in the fighting. I said a while ago I will believe it when I see it and I haven’t seen it yet.


I am amazed at people (even some that appear to be fairly reasonable at times) suggesting that no Russian nuclear strike of any kind in response to the ATACMS/Shadow strikes is a confirmation of no red lines and the like. It is an especially odd expectation because all that has been hit so far is an ammo depot that has been already hit one month ago and some barracks that may or may not have been a command post 40 or so km from the Ukrainian border. Note that the latter was already hit with HIMARS previously as well. To think that Russia is going to send a nuke or two somewhere because of it is pretty crazy. To think that there will be no retaliation of any kind is just as naive (but maybe not as crazy).

If the reports are correct, Ukraine had used 8 ATACMS and 12 Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles in the past two days in Russia.


Regarding Toretsk and previously reported Ukrainian counterattacks and a fair bit of advancement as a result. I am still confused about it. Like I said before, not everyone reported those counterattacks or any Ukrainian forward movement in the area at all. For the past few days it has been reported by almost every mapper I follow that Russians are controlling the area where Ukrainians had allegedly advanced. For example:



Source: x.com

 

[KipPotapych]

There are “rumours” that Russia hit Dnipro with an ICBM (no nuclear payload, obviously, if any at all). The visuals:

Труха⚡️Україна

Жесть! Кадри атаки на Дніпро вранці! Нагадаю, писали про балістику. Офіційної інформації про удар наразі немає. Слідкуйте за ситуацією у регіоні – https://t.me/+UMpkfP48zJM5MDli

t.me

The sounds:

Труха⚡️Україна

Момент удару міжконтитентальної балістичної ракети по Дніпру вранці, попередньо. Моторошні звуки... Слідкуйте за ситуацією у регіоні – https://t.me/+UMpkfP48zJM5MDli

t.me

The report of missiles used and interceptions from the same source (Truha), which includes 0/1 ICBM intercept, same for Kinzhal, and 6/7 Kh-101 being shot down (the latter is questionable as there were reports of hits in Poltava and Keremchuk):

Труха⚡️Україна

❗️Вранці рф запустила міжконтитентальну балістичну ракету з Астраханської обл, – ПС. ▪️Загалом 6 з 9 ракет знищено; ▪️0/1 – міжконтитентальна балістична ракета; ▪️0/1 – «Кинджали»; ▪️6/7 – крилаті Х-101. Вчора я писав, що русня може випробувати балістичну ракету РС-26 «Рубіж» у бойових...

t.me

Edit: More visuals:

Труха⚡️Україна

❗️Заявлено як момент падіння бойових блоків міжконтинентальної балістичної ракети РС-26 «Рубєж» по Дніпру сьогодні зранку. Наразі офіційного підтвердження, що летів саме «Рубєж», немає. Чекаємо більше інформації. ТРУХА⚡️Україна | Надіслати новину

t.me

Edit 2: This is now being confirmed by the Ukraine’s Air Force:

Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

⚡️ ЗБИТО ШІСТЬ КРИЛАТИХ РАКЕТ ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ Уранці 21 листопада 2024 року в період з 05.00 по 07.00 російські війська атакували місто Дніпро (підприємства та критичну інфраструктуру) ракетами різних типів. Зокрема, із Астраханської області рф було запущено міжконтинентальну балістичну ракету, із...

t.me

 

[swerve]

EU membership depends on Ukraine addressing corruption and NATO entry would be more likely if EU membership is granted. A long process IMO.

No E. European country has joined the EU before joining NATO. Six joined almost at the same time, in 2004 but they joined NATO slightly (just over a month) before the EU. Six others joined the EU from three to five years after joining NATO. Three are members of NATO but not the EU. All are candidates to join the EU, but membership has not yet been agreed.

 

[Feanor]

There are “rumours” that Russia hit Dnipro with an ICBM (no nuclear payload, obviously, if any at all). The visuals:

Труха⚡️Україна

Жесть! Кадри атаки на Дніпро вранці! Нагадаю, писали про балістику. Офіційної інформації про удар наразі немає. Слідкуйте за ситуацією у регіоні – https://t.me/+UMpkfP48zJM5MDli

t.me

The sounds:

Труха⚡️Україна

Момент удару міжконтитентальної балістичної ракети по Дніпру вранці, попередньо. Моторошні звуки... Слідкуйте за ситуацією у регіоні – https://t.me/+UMpkfP48zJM5MDli

t.me

The report of missiles used and interceptions from the same source (Truha), which includes 0/1 ICBM intercept, same for Kinzhal, and 6/7 Kh-101 being shot down (the latter is questionable as there were reports of hits in Poltava and Keremchuk):

Труха⚡️Україна

❗️Вранці рф запустила міжконтитентальну балістичну ракету з Астраханської обл, – ПС. ▪️Загалом 6 з 9 ракет знищено; ▪️0/1 – міжконтитентальна балістична ракета; ▪️0/1 – «Кинджали»; ▪️6/7 – крилаті Х-101. Вчора я писав, що русня може випробувати балістичну ракету РС-26 «Рубіж» у бойових...

t.me

Edit: More visuals:

Труха⚡️Україна

❗️Заявлено як момент падіння бойових блоків міжконтинентальної балістичної ракети РС-26 «Рубєж» по Дніпру сьогодні зранку. Наразі офіційного підтвердження, що летів саме «Рубєж», немає. Чекаємо більше інформації. ТРУХА⚡️Україна | Надіслати новину

t.me

Edit 2: This is now being confirmed by the Ukraine’s Air Force:

Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

⚡️ ЗБИТО ШІСТЬ КРИЛАТИХ РАКЕТ ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ Уранці 21 листопада 2024 року в період з 05.00 по 07.00 російські війська атакували місто Дніпро (підприємства та критичну інфраструктуру) ракетами різних типів. Зокрема, із Астраханської області рф було запущено міжконтинентальну балістичну ракету, із...

t.me

I'm curious if it had no payload or had a conventional payload (it's pretty clear it didn't have a nuclear one). The latter might suggest Russia has gone ahead with a version of what the US termed Prompt Global Strike. Also, it has to be said; "Russia has no way to escalate this conflict further" .

EDIT: Putin claims this is a new Russian missile system called Oreshnik. I suspect it might have been designed with input from Iran, but with Russian technology being the basis for it. Iran operates quite a few conventional ballistic missiles below the ICBM but well above something like an ATACMS or even an Iskander.

 

[Fredled]

This video shows clearly where the missiles hit.
According to the commentator and other analysts I have heard elsewhere, they hit a Soviet era underground bunker.
All the 12 missiles hit the target. They all exploded at the same place. They really wanted to destroy one precise item, not a range of barracks or hangars. The missiles explode slightly after the impact, which suggest a bunker buster payload.
One explanation why the Ukrainians fired so many Storm Shadows at once is that they expected that half of them would be intercepted by air defence.
There is also a smartphone video filmed from the ground, but I don't have any link to it. Maybe by searching, you will find it.

n Kursk, while no significant advances have been made by Russia lately, the Ukrainian controlled territory and the grey zone, as reported by Deepstate, changed quite a bit in the past couple of days.

They finally withdrew from the encirclement...

Regarding Toretsk and previously reported Ukrainian counterattacks and a fair bit of advancement as a result. I am still confused about it. Like I said before, not everyone reported those counterattacks or any Ukrainian forward movement in the area at all. For the past few days it has been reported by almost every mapper I follow that Russians are controlling the area where Ukrainians had allegedly advanced. For example:

I have heard of Ukrainian counter-attack but not of permanent advance. Russians returned to their positions after the counter attack.
_________________
ICBM on Dnipro

an attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday morning was carried out using "a new conventional intermediate-range missile".
The missile, codenamed Oreshnik, was a response to the use by Ukraine of US and UK long-range weaponry to hit targets inside Russia.

Russia could attack military facilities of those countries which allowed their weapons to be used for this purpose

link

I'm curious if it had no payload or had a conventional payload (it's pretty clear it didn't have a nuclear one).

According to the videos, the missile had several warheads with little or no payload. There are explosion visible, but not large ones. IMO there were small payloads.
The warheads fell on a wide area, perhaps over one kilometre. It's not the best way to hit a precise target but destruction can be important in urabn area.
One thing is certain: The missile was not intercepted. This is normal because the Patriot and other systems Ukraine has are not able to intercept such missile.

IMO, it's Putin's scare tactic. Like saying "next time it could contain a nuclear warhead". But nobody is impressed. For Ukrainians, it's just one more air attack.

_________________

Pogrębki (Little Graves in local language...)

The word has nothing to do with “graves”

I said, in local language. I didn't say it was in Russian.

 

[Feanor]

They finally withdrew from the encirclement...

So there was an encirclement?

I have heard of Ukrainian counter-attack but not of permanent advance. Russians returned to their positions after the counter attack.

According to the sources I'm looking at Ukraine retains Makarovka, and has recaptured Verkhnekamenskoe in the Seversk salient. They've also pushed Russia out of the mine complex south of Chasov Yar and still hold it. The place where Ukraine attacked and then was pushed back was Toretsk.
_________________

ICBM on Dnipro

link

According to the videos, the missile had several warheads with little or no payload. There are explosion visible, but not large ones. IMO there were small payloads.
The warheads fell on a wide area, perhaps over one kilometre. It's not the best way to hit a precise target but destruction can be important in urabn area.

Perhaps not all were real warheads. It may have been main warhead(s) with decoys/pen-aids. And it's probably not an ICBM.

I said, in local language. I didn't say it was in Russian.

This argument is stupid. In Kursk the local language is Russian, with some Surzhik, but it's not Ukrainian. Either way the word погреб (pogreb) means cellar in Russian and Ukrainian. The word погребки is plural of погребок which is a diminutive of погреб. The village is therefore called little cellars. Grave in Ukrainian (and Russian) is могила/mohyla, and burial is похoвання (ironically burial in Russian is погребение which is close to погреб which is a buried cellar, so whoever told you this meant little graves probably speaks Russian rather than Ukrainian).

 

[KipPotapych]

I'm curious if it had no payload or had a conventional payload (it's pretty clear it didn't have a nuclear one). The latter might suggest Russia has gone ahead with a version of what the US termed Prompt Global Strike. Also, it has to be said; "Russia has no way to escalate this conflict further" .

EDIT: Putin claims this is a new Russian missile system called Oreshnik. I suspect it might have been designed with input from Iran, but with Russian technology being the basis for it. Iran operates quite a few conventional ballistic missiles below the ICBM but well above something like an ATACMS or even an Iskander.

It would be interesting to see the aftermath of the strikes.

This article talks about some “preliminary thoughts” on the strike/missile:

Russia's Experimental Ballistic Missile Used To Strike Ukraine Is Based On The RS-26 Rubezh

Details are emerging about Russia's new 'Oreshnik' ballistic missile and its genesis.

www.twz.com

IMO, it's Putin's scare tactic. Like saying "next time it could contain a nuclear warhead". But nobody is impressed. For Ukrainians, it's just one more air attack.

A scheduled session of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) for 22 November has been cancelled. Members of parliament were warned of a potential Russian strike targeting the government quarter.

Ukrainian MPs were warned of possible strike on government quarter, parliament session cancelled – sources

www.pravda.com.ua

Seems like someone may be “impressed” after all. Seems like Russia can cancel a Rada session any time it wants. Seems like Russia demonstrated that they can potentially reliably strike strategic sites in Europe, avoiding the absolute majority of NATO air defences (like almost all?). Seems like they demonstrated that they can level any site in Ukraine at will (Rada clearly appreciated the message). They showed that the warning of the actual launch came from the Russians notifying the US 30 minutes before the launch, not somewhere else. They showed that they, even though they didn’t have to make such a notification (since not an ICBM, or so Putin specifically said), chose to do so indicating the desire to keep escalation managed, at least for now. They demonstrated that further escalation in Ukraine is possible (again, Rada appreciated the message). And so on. I believe many reasonable people are “impressed” and consideration will be taken in the future. This is undeniable snd very reasonable, in my opinion.

The good news here, notification of the Americans by the Russians aside, is that they probably have very limited number of these missiles, but likely enough for the intended purpose. The bad news is that Russia is expanding its production capacities:

Russia is expanding its solid-propellant motor-production facilities

Russia’s latest expansion and refurbishment of its solid-propellant motor production facilities signals a significant step towards bolstering its missile-manufacturing capabilities.

www.iiss.org

This is in addition to the current estimated stockpile of the “basic” missiles that they regularly use in Ukraine sitting at over 1,500 and increasing:

Russia Boosts Missile Production, Stockpiles At Least 1,500 for Ukraine Strikes

Russia has ramped up production of ballistic Iskander missiles, while Kalibr missiles dominate its stockpiles.

www.kyivpost.com

The information provided above further supports the fact that Rada did get somewhat “impressed”.

I said, in local language. I didn't say it was in Russian.

And what language is that? (Edit: I see Feanor had already addressed this point)



“Rumours” are that a North Korean General was wounded in the Ukrainian strike at Maryino.

North Korean General wounded in Ukraine's strike on Russia's Kursk Oblast – WSJ

www.pravda.com.ua

If true, a pretty poor return on the 12 Storm Shadows.

 

[Feanor]

A scheduled session of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) for 22 November has been cancelled. Members of parliament were warned of a potential Russian strike targeting the government quarter.

Ukrainian MPs were warned of possible strike on government quarter, parliament session cancelled – sources

www.pravda.com.ua

Seems like someone may be “impressed” after all. Seems like Russia can cancel a Rada session any time it wants.

Drop some real nukes and cancel all kinds of sessions... it was never in doubt that Russian actions could cause a Ukrainian reaction. Presumably a massive regular strike wave aimed at Kiev could achieve a similar purpose. What's interesting is that this does in fact show some new capability and is a pretty overt threat to NATO. I'm also thinking of the... "exchange of pleasantries" between Iran and Israel where Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, and in the past at the US. Quite a few of those got through as well.

 

[Fredled]

Perhaps not all were real warheads. It may have been main warhead(s) with decoys/pen-aids. And it's probably not an ICBM.

According to the Pentagon it was a intermediate-range ballistic missile.
It's already 20 years old, yet still classified as "experimental"...
How long does the Russians need to experiment?

“Rumours” are that a North Korean General was wounded in the Ukrainian strike at Maryino.

12 Storm Shadow only to wound one NK General. LOL. The article doesn't even say that he was wounded during this attack.
If it is, then the only survivor is a NK General who went outside the bunker to smoke a cigarette...

The village is therefore called little cellars.

Thanks for the language lesson. Comparing languages is amazing.

And what language is that?

It's in Polish. (Noticed the little tail under the "e"?)
Indeed, graves were built like little cellars in the past, and are still in some European countries. In Eastern countries, today the coffins are usually burried and covered directly with earth.

Weren't Poland/Ukraine/Lithuania the landlords of this area a few hundred years ago?

 

[Feanor]

According to the Pentagon it was a intermediate-range ballistic missile.
It's already 20 years old, yet still classified as "experimental"...
How long does the Russians need to experiment?

A system whose existence was only recently revealed and there's already so many details... truly amazing. On a serious note, I think we need to suspend judgement on what this is until we get more information. I wouldn't be surprised if it's derived from the RS-26 but different somehow. The RS-26 itself isn't 20 years old, it's first successful launch was in 2012. And missile programs (weapons programs in general) can very well last 20+ years especially as requirements change and technology advances. Russia also had a long period in the '90s and early '00s when funding was lacking so programs were technically running but not much actual work was being done. It would make perfect sense for this to be a new missile system derived from the RS-26 whose development started sometime in the past 10-20 years and which has now reached completion.

Thanks for the language lesson. Comparing languages is amazing.

It's in Polish. (Noticed the little tail under the "e"?)
Indeed, graves were built like little cellars in the past, and are still in some European countries. In Eastern countries, today the coffins are usually burried and covered directly with earth.

Weren't Poland/Ukraine/Lithuania the landlords of this area a few hundred years ago?

I don't recall if Kursk region specifically was part of the Rzech Pospolita, but it would be possible. If we're reaching that far back, Russian itself wasn't the same language back then as it is today. For example Ivan III declared himself "ospodar' vseya Rusi" (господарь всея Руси) whereas today that would be "gospodin vsey Rusi" (господин всей Руси). We know this from the coins he had struck on that occasion. Even words like "tsar'" weren't really being used, Ivan IV declared himself Caesar not "Tsar" (after the conquest of the Golden Horde). Even in 1800s Russian literature when authors depict authentic patterns of speech from local populations (for example Dmitriy Mamin-Sibiryak) you will find language that today wouldn't quite fit modern Russian, Ukrainian, or Belorussian. And often the speakers didn't clearly identify their own language as something specific, they just didn't operate in those categories. They talked how they talked. So if you think the name goes back that far (and it might, though it well might not) then we would have to do a historic study of the circumstances of the naming and the dialect spoken in this area at that time to truly understand.

On a side note in modern Russian from nearby Voronezh region what I have heard referred to as a "pogrebok" was a small side-cellar under a house. For a long time I assumed that the words I learned were simply normal Russian, but actually there's regional specificity for many of them, so I don't really know if this is the name for that specific architectural feature or just what people in that area called them.