The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
We have a new contender and possibly a winner in Tver. Military observer apparently has all the videos in two links, so here it is:
I think the previous winner was the RU hitting a laydown yard for expired RU booster rockets from the space program, although the place escapes me.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Ukrainians struck the Toropets missile and shell depot, in the Tver region.
Here is a compilation of the spectacular explosions by The Sun. Seismic waves above 2 on the Richter scale.
The governor claims everything is under control.... while the sound of explosions can be heard in the background.
"Mostly Peaceful protests" if you catch my drift.

I have seen some videos which suggest the explosions came from the underground bunker complex which means the entire depot is toast.

Another massive screw up for RU air defense.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kursk region.

In the west Russia's counter-attack is slowing down. They've reached Nikolaev-Dar'ino and Dar'ino, with some sources suggesting Russia already has them under control. Russian forces also are counter-attacking in the eastern part of the Sudzha salient, pushing into Borki and reportedly taking it. They've captured another M113, with an interesting looking turret. In the north-western part Ukrainian forces have recaptured Ol'govka and are contesting the villages of Matveevka and Vetreno, but of course this precarious salient of a salient is hanging on a road that's uncomfortably close to Russian positions west of Korenevo. Meanwhile Ukraine is still attacking Glushkovskiy area, where they pushed towards Veseloe but failed to take it and are now pushing on Vol'fino, west of it. I have a suspicion that this offensive was supposed to happen after Ukraine isolated the area, to defeat Russian forces. However now that Russian forces have repelled attacks on Korenevo, and have retaken Snagost', these attacks are trying to halt Russia's push east-ward.

On a side note I don't think I've seen this many BMDs in action all in one place since the war started.


Russian flag raising in Snagost', the village was retaken a few days ago.


Ossetia volunteer brigade Pyatnashka assaulting Borki.


Russian mechanized element assaulting Lyubimovka. You can see the vehicles deliver suppressing fires to the tree lines. You can also see the absence of Ukrainian drone strikes, artillery, or even ATGMs.


Materials are starting to surface. We have the Russian VDV element that broke into Snagost' starting their operation. They move rapidly presumably through a gap in Ukrainian lines, and seize positions that they then hold until the arrival of reinforcements.


Russian BMD-4M engaged near Obukhovka, dismounting infantry, according to the Ukrainian commentary it's EW blocks one FPV drone but it gets hit by another and the crew bails out.


Russian UCAV doing bomb strikes with KAB-20s near Obody, Kursk region, and engaging allegedly a Ukrainian M270 MLRS (can't make out the vehicle type). Again we have a continuing pattern of Russian UCAVs operating with impunity over Ukrainian forces and even in their near-rear (you can't tell me they put an MLRS on the very front lines). Lastly we have an Orion targetting a tank.


Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian infantry, Glushkovo area.


A series of Russian drone strikes around Borki.


Ukraine's Kozak-7 flipped on its side in Kursk region and is destroyed with an FPV drone strike. I suspect it was a munitions transport based on how it explodes.


Ukrainian MBT getting hit in Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.


Russian Ka-52 ATGM strike, Kursk border area.


Russia taking out a couple of Strykers, Kursk region.


Russian drone strikes on a pair of Ukrainian vehicles, and infantry.


Russian National Guard drone strike on a Ukrainian vehicle hidden in cover. Note EW kicks in at the end, the result is unclear.


Russia's 56th Rgt raking out a Marder, Glushkovo area.


Russia hits another tank, here instantly causing the ammo to cook off and causing a massive explosion.


Russian strike, allegedly UMPK on a Bogadana howitzer in Dar'ino. Other sources call it a 2S1.


Russian Lancet strike hits a Ukrainian howitzer, allegedly a Krab.


Wire-guided Russian drones continue to make an appearance, here they hit a T-64BV, and a armored vehicle.


Russian FAB strikes, Kruglen'koe village, Kursk region.


One of the early Ukrainian cross-border attacks. One thing that distinguishes their efforts in Kursk region from their attacks in Zaporozhye is the large numbers of engineer vehicles used.


Ukraine's 21st Mech has been spotted attacking towards the Glushkovo area, but apparently unsuccessfully as many of the vehicles in that column were later seen destroyed. The fate of the Leo-2A5 is unclear though one sources claims one destroyed and we do see it getting hit. The presence of Marders suggests the 225th Assault Btln is in play.


Ukrainian bomb strike on the school in the village of Veseloe.


Ukrainian tanks firing on Veseloe. So far the village appears to be in Russian hands with Ukrainian offensive efforts stalled on the outskirts.


Ukrainian MRAP hits a mine and is abandoned.


3 destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, Glushkovo area. Allegedly one is a Stryker and one a BREM-1.


A destroyed Ukrainian Humvee and Pantera T6.


Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles near Gogolevka village, Kursk region. We have a Stryker, M109, and light cars.


Russian forces have captured an M113 and BRDM-2 in Kursk region. Ex-WarPac kit like BRDM-2s, BMP-1s, MT-LBs, that get captured are easy to turn to Russian service and this is a fairly common occurrence. However there has to be a point where Russia amasses enough captured M113s where it makes sense to start using them, and I'm wondering how far away that point is.


Russia's 810th MarBde poses with a captured Ukrainian Tunguska, and a separate instance of a captured Roshel Senator, also Kursk region.


More POWs, Kursk region.


Russian 155th MarBde with their "transport" in Kursk region.


Ukrainian T-72AMT and CV90 in Kursk region.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kharkov area.

Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian T-72 near Russkaya Lozovaya.


Russian FAB-3000 strike on Volchansk.


Ukrainian strikes on Belgorod region continue hitting mainly civilians.


Russian strikes on Kharkov, targets unclear. We have some photos of a damaged residential building but the damage is relatively minor, not consistent with what Russian inboudns would typically do, suggesting this might have been a malfunctioning SAM.


Oskol front.


Russian forces pushing out of the Peschanoe salient have expanded their area northward, southward, and westward. The Ukrainian attack towards Tabaevka reported in the iirc last update has apparently been repelled and the ground it captured retaken by Russia. On the western side they've approached the significant road that runs from Borovoe to Kupyansk. Two villages, Glushkovka, and Kolesnikovka, are sitting right there on the road. If that supply route is cut, and it might already be, the Kupyansk area on the left shore for Ukraine becomes effective a salient. Russia continues to bite of pieces on the left shore of the Zherebets, around Makeevka and Stel'makhovka and has started a push towards Nevskoe.

Note I've recombined the Kupyansk and Oskol areas for now to save on time but the fighting is definitely happening in two different efforts. Around Kupyansk the attempt is definitely to close the loop around the Ukrainian salient on the right shore of the Oskol and then squeeze to Kupyansk itself. On the Oskol front there is a general effort to push Ukraine out past the Zherebets.


On the other hand Ukraine has recaptured a number of positions east of Torskoe, and it seems Russia has given up on reaching the village to cut off Ukrainian forces east of the Zherebets.


Russian strike on Petropavlovka, east of Kupyansk. With Sin'kovka fallen, this will be Ukraine's next strong position.


Russian military engineers doing construction to connect Lugansk and Kharkov regions. Given those specifics, this can only be in support of the Oskol front's northern portion. Note the anti-drone picket.


Seversk salient.


Russian forces have pushed westward north of Spornoe.


Chasov Yar.

In the north near Grigorievka Russian forces have approached the canal. South of Chasov Yar Russian forces have crossed the canal and are pushing on Stupochki. Note they're nowhere near the village but this is the third place where Russia has attacked across the canal, and it's likely they're doing this due to poor results further north. North of Chasov Yar there are some reports that Russia has taken Grigorievka.


Russia's tactic of using mine bundles as assault charges continues, this time near Chasov Yar.


Russian FAB-250s landing on the factory in Chasov Yar.


Ukrainian POWs taken in the Chasov Yar area.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gorlovka- Toretsk.

Russian forces have pushed into the southern part of Toretsk, not out of Nelipovka, but out of Zheleznoe. They've also continued pushing towards downtown and are practically there, bypassing the refuse mound near the penal colony.


Pokrovsk area.


Russian drone munition drops on Ukrainian forces trying to do a troop rotation, Pokrovsk area.


Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian towed gun, Pokrovsk area.


Russian Krasnopol' strike, Selidovo.


Russia hit Mirnograd again, allegedly damaging Ukrainian RCH-155s. The presence of these systems in Ukraine has not been confirmed in any way to the best of my knowledge, and I suspect it's mistaken identity at best and fiction at worst.


A pair of Ukrainian POWs out of Novogrodovka, and other areas.


Russian forces inside Zhelannoe. If this is correct, this is the Zhelannoe up north by the rail berm that Russia took some time last month.


Photos of the damage to the bridge from Pokrovsk to Mirnograd.


Krasnogorovka-Kurakhovo.

Ukrainsk has fallen and Russia has pushed southward towards Gornyak and westward towards Tsukurino, sort of. Really it's north of Tsukurino and looks like it's aimed at the mine complex north of it, but this is probably a pre-requisite for taking Tsukurino. This suggests the real directionality of Russia's offensive remains southward. Pokrovsk is probably safe for many months to come, and the real goal is at least to secure the entire right shore of the Volchya, possibly also push out to the reservoir. On the shore of Volchya itself Russian forces have taken Zhelannoe Pervoe, making Ukrainian positions west of the Volchya mostly untenable and the Ukrainian salient there continues to shrink. West of Krasnogorovka Russian forces have advanced inside Maksimil'yanovka, and taken some of the fields north of it.


A look at the Kurakhovo dam. It's been damaged but the road is still driveable.


Ukrainian POW taken near Ukrainsk. Note the town was taken after relatively light fighting likely due to a Ukrainian withdrawal.


Ugledar area.

Russia has captured the No. 3 mine complex west of Vodyanoe and has expanded their area of control in the fields north and south of Konstantinovka. at this point it appears they intend to threaten or even take Bogoyavlenka, and force a withdrawal from Ugledar. Bogoyavlenka is at this point 4 kms away and the new MSR runs through rural roads along farm fields.


Russian ARV efforts near Vodyanoe.


The No 3 mine building was reportedly mined, and instead of trying to disarm it Russian forces blew the structure.


Russian strike on the No 3 mine.


Ukrainian T-80BV gets hit and ammo cooks off, Ugledar area.


A video of a Russian mechanized assault element entering the the No 3 mine complex. The song is priceless for those that speak Russian. It's about heavily drinking tankers.


Zaporozhye front.

Russia recaptured some positions near Kamenskoe. This comes after we had the increase in footage of Russian strikes here.


Russian recon team from the 4th MilBase operating near Kamenskoe.


A destroyed Ukrainian M113, allegedly hit by a Russian Giatsint-B.


Dnepr front.

Russia hits a Ukrainian boat on the Dnepr.


A destroyed Ukrainian M109, Kherson region.


Black Sea/Crimea.


We have a series of videos from Ukraine's ill-fated attempt to seize a Russian platform in the Black Sea. Some of the conversation in the video suggests that the Russian Su-30SM that went down was shot down by them.


Russian construction of defenses near the Crimean bridge continues.


Strikes.

Russian strikes on Parutino, Nikolaev region, Shahed drones hit sheds where boats are stored.


Russian struck Konstantinovka, where Ukraine recently announced an evacuation.


I won't go over in detail over the very effective Ukrainian strike on the Toroptsi munition storage in Tver' region as many others have posted about it. It's unclear now if this is some sort of very effective new Ukrainian approach to strikes or if instead this is extreme negligence on the part of the Russian military in how the facility was run. Many Russian sources have suggested the latter, but without any real evidence. There are reports that evacuated civilians have been given permission to return, but this might be premature.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Ukraine's 36th MarBde doing indirect fires with their T-64BV.


Russian T-90M engaged with an anti-drone "system" in the form of a tank-rider with a shotgun.


The logical evolution of the hangar tank. A Russian T-73B3 mod'16 with a double-layered side-skirt ERA and a turnable frame over the turret.


A column of Russian T-62Ms passes by a rare Khrizantema ATGM carrier. One of the tanks apparently breaks down. Note the improvised roof coverings, not even cages. It raises questions. Until now the T-62Ms all came from the 61st Armored Repair Plant and other then the two btlns pulled in '22 they mostly went through the same program, getting more ERA, standard roof cages, and a thermal sight. This roof cage suggests this batch didn't get the mod'22 treatment raising a question. Is Russia pulling tanks through somewhere else that doesn't do the upgrades? Or are there supply bottlenecks and the 61st factory can't do the upgrades? I suspect it's the former, since even with a shortage of thermals (and it's not clear there is one) there's certainly no shortage of metal for factory-made roof cages.


A rare Russian Tayfun-VDV with a 30mm autocannon.


Russian Uragan-1 on the BAZ armored chassis, not to be confused with the Uragan-1M (a prototype with packet reloading). A number of these have entered service, but I believe these are old BM-27 launchers on a new chassis, possibly with upgraded comms and some other extra kit. The armored cabin is certainly a help.


Ukraine's 5th Tanks training with the Leo-1A5s. Many mocked Russian T-62s but this is the reality of this war, old kit will get used, often with good effect.


Ukrainian Bradleys finally get a foldable drone cage. However their efficacy is questionable, we've seen successful FPV drone strikes go through them.


Ukraine's 14th Mech Bde with a captured T-72B3 mod'11, note the hole in the K-5 coverage.


Reportedly Ukraine has begun producing their own 155mm shells. Allegedly they were also doing this pre-war, and it's unclear what the scale of the production is.


Reportedly Estonia will be handing over some of the Patria AMVs to Ukraine.


Zelensky is confirming that recent Chinese restrictions on export of drone components has impacted Ukraine.

 

Fredled

Active Member
"Mostly Peaceful protests" if you catch my drift.
I have seen some videos which suggest the explosions came from the underground bunker complex which means the entire depot is toast.
Another massive screw up for RU air defence.
I don't think Ukrainian drones could destroy underground bunkers. Some type of missiles maybe, but drones?
Instead I have read or heard that some ammunitions were stored outside. Then, other sources said that the bunker were targeted and destroyed.
Finaly, a Kiev Post article talks about Ukrainian jet powered drone (or small cruise missiles). This looks more probable. But I didn't know that they could fly 500 km.
According to the Kiev Post, witnesses heard jet engines and saw jet aircraft flying at very low altitude before hearing the detonations.
Around 100 of such mini cruise missile could have been used in the operation. This suggests that Ukrainians kept secret this weapon until last week when they hit an air base and burnt fuel tanks. This was the first raid with these missiles. Toropets would be the second.

Zelensky is asking for the right to use Western missile deep inside Russia. Well, je may not need it after all.
One of the first reaction, not officially linked to the Toropets attack but it's no coincidence, was to treathen a nuclear war (Reuters) with the West should this authorisation be given to Ukraine.

Here is a second article from the Kiev Post, completing somewhat the other one.

And more videos from pro-Ukraine chanel Canal3.

Feanor said:
It's unclear now if this is some sort of very effective new Ukrainian approach to strikes or if instead this is extreme negligence on the part of the Russian military in how the facility was run.
In this war Ukrainian successes have often been a combination of the two. Recently Russians brought there North Korean missiles. They may have found no place inside the bunker as well as other ammunition deliveries. making their storage there extremely dangerous.
But why on Hell, do the Russians concentrate so much explosive in one place? They really look for troubles...
____________________

Other news:
Reuters Exclusive: Ammunition from India enters Ukraine
From what I understand, it could have been through the Czech Initiative. India denies.
No matter what, that would be a diplomatic blow to Putin if India knew that the deliveries were going to Ukraine.

The Ukainian Navy said that they struck another ammunition depots near Mariupol. The second time in two days.
Here is the Ukrinform report from two days ago.
I'm not sure to which extent the Ukrainian Navy sea born... But ok.

Russian resuming attacks in the Kharkiv region
While the city is bombarded with KAB glide bombs.

Feanor said:
Zelensky is confirming that recent Chinese restrictions on export of drone components has impacted Ukraine.
And this is bad news for Ukraine because for some time, China was delivering dual components to Ukraine and to Russia on an equal basis. It means that recently China has strengthened its pro-Russian stance.
China is still refusing to call the Ukrainian Crisis a war.

Feanor said:
Reportedly Ukraine has begun producing their own 155mm shells. Allegedly they were also doing this pre-war, and it's unclear what the scale of the production is.
They began one year ago. A few days ago I also read an article on Ukrinform telling the same thing. They claimed to have double and plan to quadrupled production. But as no number is provided, I didn't deem useful to report that here. The number of shells produced is certainly not very big. So dounbling production is not difficult.

Feanor said:
Ukrainian Bradleys finally get a foldable drone cage. However their efficacy is questionable, we've seen successful FPV drone strikes go through them.
Yes. It's a light protection. IMO they wouldn't use it if it was totally useless. IMO, it depends on the type of drone and the angle of attack. Obviously it won;t stop a lancet.

The main advantage of the foldable net is that it can be easily unfolded not to impede the use of turret devices and gun. I have seen fixed, heavy anti-drone cages on a Russian IFV which completely prevented the use of the turret machine gun.
Its light weigh is also an advantage. Heavy cages could add one ton of metal on top of the tank.

Feanor said:
The logical evolution of the hangar tank. A Russian T-73B3 mod'16 with a double-layered side-skirt ERA and a turnable frame over the turret.
I wondered at the weight of the Turtle/Hangar tanks. Not the best for speed and nimbleness.
This last version makes more sens... But still...

Feanor said:
Russian construction of defenses near the Crimean bridge continues.
I don't know if it will be useful in the long term. The Ukrainian Navy has never targeted the bridge with their sea drones or maybe they tried but noticed it's not an effective way. It they want to destroy the bridge, the will do it with a projectile with a vertical trajectory.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I don't think Ukrainian drones could destroy underground bunkers. Some type of missiles maybe, but drones?
Instead I have read or heard that some ammunitions were stored outside. Then, other sources said that the bunker were targeted and destroyed.
Finaly, a Kiev Post article talks about Ukrainian jet powered drone (or small cruise missiles). This looks more probable. But I didn't know that they could fly 500 km.
I have now seen satellite photos of ammunition crates being stored near the bunker openings. A chain reaction set everything off, if I had to guess. Bad spacing, blast doors being open, etc. There was a famous case like this in 1944 where a US fighter shot up a truck at the tail end in a convoy carrying torpedoes into a German bunker, and they went up in sequence until it reached the bunker, and the entire thing went up at once. Its in the US official histories, but I cant find it off the top of my head.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Backing up my claims over the past couple of years kind of post, from past to present and future. It just happened to be so that there were a few articles in the past few days that I can cite as further references for my past claims, some previously supported by other citations, others just opinion.

Germany is cutting Ukrainian aid budget for the next year by 50%. Ironically, it is justified by the $50B worth of loans (repaid with the profits from the frozen Russian sovereign funds), which was mostly pushed by the US and UK (the article suggests the goal was to be able to substitute the funds the US provides, in case Trump gets elected).

I don;t understand why it's ironical. It makes sens. There is enough money with the EU special fund and the loan guarantees on frozen Russian assets.
This is in (small) part why it was ironic:


I’ve said before they are going to struggle with the legal framework for this. And this is just the surface of it that should be easily fixable, but nothing is easy in Europe (well, anywhere, really). Basically 3 months after the decision was made, we now find out that this isn’t necessarily going to happen unless Euros change their laws in regard to sanctions or Americans step up again (highly unlikely). Yet, some/many have already cut their aid budgets citing this $50B loan as a given.

Another thing to note, the article mentions that the US has so far provided about $175 billion in aid to Ukraine. Of this money, $114B were provided for “defense-related” priorities.


Zelensky was advised by some of the Ukrainian top brass not to invade Kursk. Some were dismissed as a result. Zaluzhny's advice was apparently the same.


Interestingly, Zaluzhny, according to the article, asked the exact same thing I did here over a month ago:

Zaluzhny’s objection to the incursion, meanwhile, was that there was no clear second step after the border had been successfully breached by elite Ukrainian units drawn from four brigades, according to these officials. Zaluzhny queried: once you have the bridgehead, what then? “He never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy,” said one of the officials. “He felt it was a gamble,” he said.


Don’t want to look for my posts from the past on this subject (and I had at least two that I can remember of), but I claimed (and supported my claims with appropriate references) that the Ukrainian population currently sits at no more than 25 million people. Unfortunately, as of recently, I no longer have subscription to the Wall Street Journal, but here is an excerpt from their recent article that cites the exact same number:

IMG_7030.jpeg

To note here, these government estimates are probably on the high end of the spectrum, in my opinion. This is from Rob Lee’s thread on X: x.com. I wonder if the article also talks about the number of people who are basically going to pass within the next 20 years (makority likely way before that), which is at least 10 million - ie, those who are currently collecting pension (I talked about it a while ago and provided the Ukrainian government data for the support of the claim). The same thread also quotes another part of the article where it is said that this is the reason Zelensky is refusing to mobilize those aged between 18 and 25 - most of these men didn’t have children yet.

From the same thread: the article also talks about the Ukrainian troop casualties on the frontline and beyond:

IMG_7031.jpeg

A couple of things here. One is, how much “earlier this year” are we talking about? And two, I would think it is safe to assume that the number of permanently departed Russians is likely significantly below 200,000 because the wounded to killed ratio is not at all convincing (almost as if two numbers were taken form two different estimates). But we also discussed that extensively previously with various citations, as well as simple discussion, etc.

The Ukrainian defences are (near) collapsing in one direction rather quickly, a few others have very questionable status and may follow suit. Russians are advancing at the fastest pace since 2022.
No, the front line is not collapsing.
"In order to stop the Russians as they advanced along the railway line, we should have set up barricades and rigged those areas with explosives. We should have cut down the dense woods to create clear lines of sight. We didn’t start doing that until around Zhelanne! But by then it was no use, because the front was crumbling too fast.[…]

After we surrendered Novobakhmutivka, Ocheretyne and Soloviovo, the front started to collapse at the rate we’re seeing now.


Ok, this last one is a (part) joke and it is a play of words to amplify the significance (but is not far from reality). The above is from an excellent article at the Ukrainska Pravda. It is in English, so I won’t cut and translate and paste anything and I highly recommend reading it:


One thing I will paste on the subject of refusing to mobilize the younger crowd since it was discussed just above:

The mobilisation failed. Let's be honest – each subsequent replenishment was less motivated and trained.

And a key, in my opinion:

The Pokrovsk front is the most striking example of how the state and society failed to cope with mobilisation in the third year of the full-scale war. And the new mobilisation law proved not to hold out a lifeline.


More to discuss, but it is late here now, so another day.

Last comment. On the munitions storage in the Tver strike… I believe there is something to ponder about, including the declared and discussed shortage of ammunition and missiles in Russia. One could suggest that there is currently an overproduction compared to the use of munitions on the frontline - I would think it is pretty clear it was full up the wazoo. Budanov also suggests that he doesn’t want to be a doomer, but this is the reality:

"Production [of guided aerial bombs] has increased – I don't want to scare anyone, but by several times, let's say."

Budanov also noted that the Russians have made significant progress in Iskander missile production, which has become "massive".



One edit: forgot to mention in regard to the “meat-attacks” that is again suggested in the Pravda article I recommended above:

IMG_6978.jpeg

And another worthy of noting onservation:

IMG_6977.jpeg
 
Last edited:

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I think this screenshot of the developing Russian offensive on the Kurakhovo axis is an illustration of the real targets of the offensive that was initially thought to be aimed at Pokrovsk. The green parts are the latest advances. This illustrates why some have called it dishonest when Ukrainian officialdom talks about "no advances in the direction of Pokrovsk". There are also no advances in the direction of Gulyaypole. So what? Map taken from Kalibrated.

Screenshot 2024-09-20 104622.png
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In this war Ukrainian successes have often been a combination of the two. Recently Russians brought there North Korean missiles. They may have found no place inside the bunker as well as other ammunition deliveries. making their storage there extremely dangerous.
But why on Hell, do the Russians concentrate so much explosive in one place? They really look for troubles...
It's a big war and Russia was clearly not prepared for it. Presumably this extends to munition storage as much as it does to other things.

And this is bad news for Ukraine because for some time, China was delivering dual components to Ukraine and to Russia on an equal basis. It means that recently China has strengthened its pro-Russian stance.
China is still refusing to call the Ukrainian Crisis a war.
It's almost certainly a move taken against Ukraine. The law theoretically would apply to both parties but it's almost guaranteed to have one-sided enforcement.

Yes. It's a light protection. IMO they wouldn't use it if it was totally useless. IMO, it depends on the type of drone and the angle of attack. Obviously it won;t stop a lancet.
There have been several videos of the new drone cage, including ones posted here, where it didn't stop a basic FPV drone. I'm sure it's not totally useless, probably stopping drone-dropped munitions. But if it consistently fails to stop FPV drones, that's a problem.

The main advantage of the foldable net is that it can be easily unfolded not to impede the use of turret devices and gun. I have seen fixed, heavy anti-drone cages on a Russian IFV which completely prevented the use of the turret machine gun.
Its light weigh is also an advantage. Heavy cages could add one ton of metal on top of the tank.
Clearly intelligence went into the design. It folds well, and it slopes over the rear, a likely direction for drone attacks. The main question is whether it's strong enough to do the job.

I wondered at the weight of the Turtle/Hangar tanks. Not the best for speed and nimbleness.
This last version makes more sens... But still...
On the one hand this is definitely a problem. The flip side is that Soviet designs tended to be light-weight and very mobile, so you tend to get good results sacrificing some mobility for protection. Up armored BMP-2s and 3s don't have mobility problems despite the extra weight. Ditto for the BTR-82AM.

I don't know if it will be useful in the long term. The Ukrainian Navy has never targeted the bridge with their sea drones or maybe they tried but noticed it's not an effective way. It they want to destroy the bridge, the will do it with a projectile with a vertical trajectory.
It might be the logic of "better to have and not need". We also don't know what the finished structure will look like. Maybe it's a parking area for Pantsyr SAMs to cover more of the middle of the bridge?
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
This illustrates why some have called it dishonest when Ukrainian officialdom talks about "no advances in the direction of Pokrovsk".
It was true that the advance directly into the city of Pokrovsk was stopped. However it's not true that the Pokrovsk Front has stabilised. Russians move forward wherever it's possible. They can't move on Pokrovsk proper any more, they move south of it, or north of it. Their goal is to move forward.

Russian's advance will continue as long as they have numerical superiority. It's nothing surprising. Ukrainians too, make mistakes and can be demoralized or poorly trained. And when that happen they can't withstand assaults from a numerically superior enemy. Superior both in men and in weapons and ammunitions.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I don't know if it will be useful in the long term. The Ukrainian Navy has never targeted the bridge with their sea drones or maybe they tried but noticed it's not an effective way. It they want to destroy the bridge, the will do it with a projectile with a vertical trajectory.
So far, there were only two successful attacks on the bridge. One happened in… October, 2022? A truck driving on the bridge exploded, causing damage. Due to luck, there happened to be a train on the rail bridge as well at the moment pulling some flammable material, which significantly increased the damage. The second happened in July 2023. Two loaded sea drones exploded under the bridge, causing damage and killing two people and injuring another. Repairs took 3 months, ie the bridge was partially closed for 3 months.


@KipPotapych Who is Rob Lee?
A pro-Russian troll, lol!

He is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, specializing in Russian Defense policy, former marine, other things. You can use Google to find out more, including experience, education, affiliations, research, etc.

It was true that the advance directly into the city of Pokrovsk was stopped. However it's not true that the Pokrovsk Front has stabilised. Russians move forward wherever it's possible. They can't move on Pokrovsk proper any more, they move south of it, or north of it. Their goal is to move forward.
I would say it is true that the main push toward the Pokrovsk city had stopped. That it was stopped is not necessarily true. Going south and east bears much greater rewards, in my opinion.

What you wrote implies that the there is no strategy or plan whatsoever. I highly doubt this is the case and something tells me that their planning abilities are significantly better than often suggested. And one part of the plan is becoming quite apparent now. They also have options in their current planning, clearly.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It was true that the advance directly into the city of Pokrovsk was stopped. However it's not true that the Pokrovsk Front has stabilised. Russians move forward wherever it's possible. They can't move on Pokrovsk proper any more, they move south of it, or north of it. Their goal is to move forward.

Russian's advance will continue as long as they have numerical superiority. It's nothing surprising. Ukrainians too, make mistakes and can be demoralized or poorly trained. And when that happen they can't withstand assaults from a numerically superior enemy. Superior both in men and in weapons and ammunitions.
I believe the directionality of the offensive indicates intent, and the intent is a drive southward along the western shore of the Volchya. I don't doubt that they will try to take Pokrovsk eventually, but they will likely have to take Selidovo first, and right now they're not going in that direction yet, though the last push south of Selidovo is suggesting. I would not be surprised if we see the fall of Gornyak and Kurakhovka before we see the fall of Selidovo, which itself would be a pre-requisite for attacking Pokrovsk. This is why I posted that screenshot. It illustrates very well what Russia is doing, and they're not trying to take Pokrovsk. They're trying to get the front to the northern shore of the Kurakhovo reservoire, and threaten the town from the north and the east. Consider how it dovetails with their actions against Ugledar. Assuming they succeed on all sides (and yes I know this is an assumption but we're trying to glean intent/plans here) you have the entire southern-Donetsk area falling. Compared to that actually taking Pokrovsk would be a smaller impact.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Russians couldn't take Pokrovsk frontally, using of a surprise effect which would have destabilised the whole Ukrainian defence aparatus. So they decided to change their momentary strategy.
Their plan is to take as much of Ukraine as they can. If possible all the region east and south of the Dniepr. Whether they start in one place and continue in another is of little significance as long as they gain more acreage. There are attacks, bombing and shelling constantly all along the front line. Just read Ukrinform to see where bombs, shells and rockets are falling daily. It's in many areas we never talk about. Their strategy is to push everywhere at the same time. Incidentally they had an opportunity to get close to Pokrovsk and then, they moved more troops in this direction because that's where they had successes. I don't think that they chose to take Pokrovsk more than Chasiv Yar, Lyman or Vuhledar.
The attack on Kharkiv was more planned, thought.
 

Fredled

Active Member

New BDA on the Toropets strike. Very impressive results.
Yes, I have seen them. I'm still wondering what type of drone were used and how they could destroy concrete bunkers. It looks like they were concret bunkers in the south and hangars on the north. Half of the bunkers exploded while nearly all the hangars were damaged or destroyed.
It's possible that the concrete of the bunkers was thin and of poor quality and Ukrainians knew that. They knew that they had a chance to destroy them with the payload carried by their Pancake cruise missiles/drones (forgot the real name in Ukrainian). It also require high precision to hit the bunker where they could collapse. Maybe the hangars too, were weaker than originally planned, with undulated metal sheets on light structures.
The high quantity of Pancake drones is also a mystery to me.

If you add a second destruction of this magnitude on another major base to a victory in the Kursk Region, IMO, Ukraine will win the war.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Victory in Kursk?

More debris from Ukrainian “drones” fell on another ammo depot. Not even close to being as spectacular as the other explosion (not yet, anyway), but a hit. We will see what happens.


How sure are we that these are still Ukrainian drones they are using? After all,

IMG_7042.png

To note, you cannot make this stuff up!


On one side of the border, the debris from drones and missiles have basically destroyed the energy generation infrastructure, among other things; on the other side of the border, the debris from drones and allegedly drones have been destroying refineries and now ammunition depots. Would be much cheaper to send the super-debris to begin with than rather expensive missiles and drones that are usually all intercepted, malfunction, etc anyway. Imagine debris that is more dangerous than missiles and drones it comes from! Who would have thought the technological advancement would come to this?
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Perhaps a way to get around the concerns of supplying "Western" made missiles would be to supply the technology and skills of such , even the Storm Shadow is only an export version with a shorter range etc.
 
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