The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych · Sep 10, 2024

Looks like things are evolving in Kursk. A lot of Russian movement has been reported, mainly by the Russian sources (I didn’t check any myself, but most Ukrainian sources are citing them, though some are citing their own sources). No clarity at this point, but Deepstate confirms that the situation has worsened.

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Rumours are starting to circulate that the US is going to permit long-range strikes into Russia. I will believe it when I see it though, provided the source is Mr McCaul.

Blinken confirms that Russia had received the Iranian ballistic missiles. The US imposes sanctions on Iran (funny at this point).

https://www.reuters.com/world/blinken-says-russia-received-missiles-iran-warns-threat-european-security-2024-09-10/

I will probably make another post later.

KipPotapych · Sep 10, 2024

This is not another post I mentioned, haha, but can’t edit the previous post to fit another pic.

Def Mon posted today in the morning (my time, of course) that there haven’t been any significant changes in Kursk since Aug 19.

Higher resolution map image:

Timing of the post is a little ironic provided there will be confirmation of developments mentioned above.

On the topic, crop of the image from the thread in my previous post:

Looks like a bit of encirclement going on there if there is any truth to it. It appears that either Russians are pretty good at this or Ukrainians are pretty bad at the same thing. This encirclement theme seems to be often happening to the Ukes and now while they are on the offensive as well.

All speculation at this point, the way I see it, but there is clearly something to it due to all the chatter (and I don’t know what the Russians are saying aside from the above). If confirmed, however, this is quite a chunk of land in half a day’s time? Someone is quite stretched, it appears.

Edit: as per Deepstate, Russians advanced in Ukrainsk and Marynivka:

KipPotapych · Sep 10, 2024

KipPotapych said:
View attachment 51699

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On that, Mark Krutov, who knows a thing or two on the subject, says these pontoon bridges aren’t new.

And some humour from the same thread:

Edit: The video from Rob Lee’s post above on Telegram:

Осведомитель

Первые кадры сегодняшней контратаки наших подразделений на ВСУ в Курской области. На видео накат 51-го полка 106-й дивизии ВДВ на Снагость. Осведомитель

t.me

The way the column moved in sort of indicates that there was no prior Ukrainian control of the territory. Perhaps, the preparation via artillery and drone strikes, as well as glide bombs could explain it?

Edit 2: According to Deepstate’s post, there was no Ukrainian control as the footage is from the “grey zone”:

✙DeepState✙

⚔️ Рух броньованої колони під**в з Коренєво у напрямку Снагості, а також активні бойові дії в останній Ситуація уточнюється. deepstatemap.live/#14/51.3610254/34.8962215 МапаБлогНаписати нам ЗСУHelpМагазинДонат

t.me

KipPotapych · Sep 11, 2024

It appears that the Russian small counteroffensive was successful, to a degree yet unknown though. Many maps surely indicate what was reported previously (see my posts above).

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Some statements from the Ukrainian sources suggest the same:

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(Edited this part out)

Potential reasons for the Russian quick success:

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First, this is further evidence of Ukrainian forces being stretched. Second, same same sort of thing, in terms of Russia/Ukraine moves and consequences. In circle we go. What’s significant, it wasn’t even some major offensive by the Russians. To me it looks like Ukrainian command thought it was their strong point that didn’t require much manpower to defend and Russians took advantage with little effort. But we will (maybe) see what actually happened once the fog clears.

KipPotapych · Sep 11, 2024

A preliminary map of the Russian offensive from a few hours ago. The orange is confirmed, purple is claimed by Russians and Ukrainians, but not yet confirmed. Arrows are yellow simply for contrast. Russians may have advanced as much as 10km and possibly attacking Lyubimovka.

From this post on X: x.com

There is also an article that accompanies the map, but it is in Finnish. Here are some highlights.

According to Ukrainian war watchers, the situation in the Kursk region is difficult.

According to the Ukrainian group Deepstate, which follows the war, Russia has moved troops across the Seimjoki for a counterattack. After this, Russia attacked the territory controlled by Ukraine from the north and west.

According to Ukrainian sources, the local forces defending the area had to withdraw due to the Russian counterattack.

The article also quotes some Ukrainian sources talking about the lack of communication between units, command ignoring field reports from the units on the ground, etc. Basically the usual thing that accompanies such events. The author also talks about videos circulating the social media of the Ukrainian PoWs being walked by the Russian troops on the streets of various villages. Sternenko (Right Sector), quoted in the article, concludes the following:

"The situation can develop into a badly managed crisis".

The article:

Ukrainan sota | Venäjä aloitti vastahyökkäyksen Kurskin alueella – ”Tilanne voi kehittyä kriisiksi”

Venäläiset joukot ovat saattaneet edetä Kurskin alueella jopa kymmenen kilometriä. Ukrainalaiset sotaseuraajat kuvailevat tilannetta vaikeaksi.

www.hs.fi

Russia may have lost a Su-30SM over Black Sea:

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Still no clarity on the long-range strikes:

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However,

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vk.com

Russian Forpost-RU bomb strike on allegedly a Ukrainian command post in Snagost', and several Orion and Forpost strikes. If Russia can operate MALE UCAVs over Ukrainian forces inside Kursk with impunity, they're in bad shape and it might explain the success of Russia's recent offensive.

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Военный Осведомитель

Еще одно видео удара БПЛА "Орион" ракетой Х-БПЛА по украинскому Т-64БВ в Курской области. Проблемы в обеспечении прикрытия ПВО вторгнувшихся украинских войск создали "окно возможностей" для российских средних ударно-разведывательных беспилотников для их использования именно в качестве ударных...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Пытались воровать макароны из курской "Пятерочки".

t.me

Ukrainain POWs in Vishnevka.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Вишневка наша! 56 полк ВДВ уничтожил и взял в плен боевиков ВСУ, освободив посёлок Курской области ▪️Крымский десант очистил от врага 3 населенных пункта, уничтожив и пленив засевших там оккупантов. На видео наши связывают сдавшихся после боя на позициях украинцев. ▪️Сначала бойцы ВДВ выбили...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Наши десантники берут в плен ВСУшников в Курской области. Пополняем обменный фонд.

t.me

Russian forces with one or two captured Strykers, apparently intact.

Военный Осведомитель

Кадры изнутри брошенного в Курской области бронетранспортёра M1126 Stryker ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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Russian drone strike hits a Ukrainian mortar, Kursk region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Десант уничтожает оккупантов на Курском фронте ▪️Бойцы ВДВ группировки войск «Север» уничтожили расчет 120-мм миномета ВСУ в приграничном районе Курской области. ▪️Десантники, активно применяя ударные дроны, уничтожают замаскированные в лесопосадках позиции противника. За последние несколько...

t.me

Russian wire-guided drone strike on a Ukrainian BTR-80, Kursk region. Note how low to the ground the drone gets, and despite the wire guidance, it can fly through forested areas.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтожение БТР-80 ВСУ ударом FPV-дрона на оптоволокне в Курской области. Видео: @warriorofnorth Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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Russian bomb strikes near Gorodeevka, Kursk region. This village is right on the border, and on a road into Ukraine. Russia has recently recaptured it.

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Russian strike, allegedly hitting a Ukrainian howitzer. We don't see the howitzer at all but we see what looks like dust being kicked up from it firing.

Colonelcassad

Курская область Разведчики 83 бригады вычислили и уничтожили гаубицу противника снарядом «Краснополь» которая мешала продвижению.

t.me

Russian drone munition drop on a Ukrainian pickup hiding in a ruined building.

Colonelcassad

Курская область — ещё один транспорт врага отправляется в утиль. При помощи дрона-разведчика была обнаружена вражеская машина с характерным для ВСУ тактическим знаком. После обнаружения незамедлительно отработали по ней. @rusich_army

t.me

Russian strike on a Ukrainian Bogdana howtizer, Kursk area.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Толпа оккупантов собралась у "супергаубицы" в Курском приграничье и злые русские наказали их за ошибку ▪️Российские бойцы следили за новейшей гаубицей "Богдана" и нанесли точный удар, сжигая установку, убивая и калеча ее расчет. ▪️Армия России продолжает массово уничтожать технику, артиллерию и...

t.me

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A Kozak armored car gets hit by a Lancet.

Colonelcassad

Курское направление Иксоводы ВДВ поразили десантный отсек ББМ "Козак" укропитеков. Оштрафованы за незаконное пересечение границы и несоблюдение скоростного режима! @russian_airborne

t.me

It appears Russia took out a Wisent ARV in Kursk region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Крымские бойцы в Курской области уничтожили бронемашину на базе «Леопарда» ▪️Поразили Бронированную ремонтно-эвакуационную машину на базе танка «Леопард» в Курской области атаковали и подбили операторы ударных FPV-дронов отряда «Восьмерка». ▪️«Подбили группы, которые были нами составлены и...

t.me

Russian Grad fires, Kursk region. Note the truck cabin is armored with what look like factory-made panels.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Реактивные системы залпового огня "Град" войсковой группировки "Север" ликвидировали подразделения ВСУ, пытавшиеся укрепиться в приграничной зоне Курской области. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Allegedly a Ukrainian Caesar howitzer in Kursk region gets hit. Note I can't really make out the vehicle type though it looks about right.

Colonelcassad

В Курской области вскрыто передвижение французской 150-мм САУ "Caesar" Разведывательный БпЛА группировки "Север" срисовал место временного размещения установки, после чего российские артиллеристы нанесли точный удар. @razved_dozor

t.me

Russia wireguided drone flies into a shed where Ukrainian soldiers were resting and strikes them.

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Russian bomb strike on a tree line where Ukrainian UAV operators are allegedly based. We can see some sort of Ukrainian position there. Russia must have bombs to spare if they can direct them against small UAV teams.

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Russia hits a bridge in Sumy region near the village of Velikaya Chernetchina but fails to destroy it.

Военный Осведомитель

Поражение моста через реку Псел возле села Великая Чернетчина в Сумской области. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Видно, что после удара основное полотно моста все еще уцелело и для его разрушения требуется дополнительное воздействие. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strike on Stetskovka village, Sumy, where allegedly foreign fighters were being based.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Армия России накрыла базу наёмников, участвующих в наступлении на Курскую область В результате ракетного удара севернее Сум в районе Стецковки уничтожена временная база, где находились иностранные наемники. Около 30 человек и 6 единиц техники были ликвидированы на месте. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strike in Sumy against allegedly a concentration of Ukrainian forces.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Нанесён удар по скоплению сил и техники ВСУ, готовившихся атаковать Курскую область ▪️В ходе удара у Новых Басов (7 км юго-восточнее Сум) уничтожены 20 машин и до 80 боевиков, сообщает Минобороны: ▪️ 7 единиц грузовой автомобильной техники ▪️ 4 единицы боевых бронемашин, ▪️ 9 единиц...

t.me

Ukraine striking a bridge across the Seym filmed by Russian soldiers (links 1-2) and another with a cluster munition (3rd link).

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Бомба ударила прямо перед нашими бойцами: Враг уже каждый день наносит удары оружием США по мосту в Курской области, пытаясь отрезать нашу группировку, но мост продолжает стоять ▪️Российские военные, ехавшие на мост, запечатлели момент удара корректируемой бомбой JDAM-ER по автомобильному мосту...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Враг чуть ли не через день наносит удары ракетами США по мосту в Курской области, пытаясь отрезать нашу группировку, а он всё стоит ▪️Противник публикует кадры удара по мосту через реку Сейм у поселка Карыж в Курском приграничье. ▪️Сегодня ВСУ потратили сразу 4 НАТОвских ракеты, но уже...

t.me

A destroyed Stryker and Roshel Senator near Korenevo.

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Эвакуация противником бронетранспортёра M1126 Stryker 82-й ОДШБр ВСУ, повреждённого в Курской области. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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Dambiev

Уничтоженная в Курской области украинская БМП Marder 1A3 немецкого производства.

t.me

Ukrainian ARV and soldiers standing amid a pile of wrecked Ukrainian vehicles.

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Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 924: Situation on Chasov Yar front: During the last two days Russian Army took control over new positions at the western part of Kalinivna. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.603646068914806%2C37.86333023563808&z=14 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 923: Situation south of Bakhmut: During the first hours of September Russian army managed to reach the canal from Klishchiivka after Ukrainian Army retreated following the loss of the hills to the west of the locality. During the following days the Russian forces...

t.me

A destroyed Dingo-2 MRAP, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Dambiev

Наехавший на мину украинский MRAP ATF Dingo 2 немецкого производства на Артемовском направлении.

vk.com

Еще одно видео поражения ж/д моста возле Селидово ударом ракеты Х-38МЛ. Часть полона провалилась, однако часть устояла. Ранее кадры удара по мосту публиковал противник. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

Поражение ж/д моста между восточной окраиной Селидово и западной окраиной села Михайловка ударом ракеты Х-38МЛ. Координаты: 48.143011, 37.342385 Это означает откат российских штурмовых подразделений от окраин Селидово, куда ранее удалось зайти "на плечах" украинских солдат, и теперь бои за...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Продолжается изоляция района Селидово и группировки ВСУ, снося мосты ▪️Армия России сносит ракетными ударами один за другим мосты, по которым враг осуществляет снабжение и ротацию. ▪️Теперь наши разнесли ракетой мост в Селидово, через который ВСУ перебрасывали технику, сообщают украинские...

t.me

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Russian Molniya loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian machinegun position, Pokrovsk axis. Previously we only saw these drones on the Seversk salient.

Dambiev

Уничтожение пулеметной точки противника Оператор дивизии Черных ножей с позывным Ирбис, управляя дроном-камикадзе "Молния", бесстрашно находит укрытие противника. Взгляд его сосредоточен, каждый маневр точен. Взрыв, и мгновение — пулеметное гнездо разрушается, унося с собой не только капонир...

t.me

A rare sight, a Russian BM-21 firing a full rocket packet, Pokrovsk area. We also get a glimpse of the anti-drone picket.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ «Грады» «тважных» нанесли мощный удар по скоплениям техники и сил ВСУ, поддерживая прорыв к Покровску ▪️Получив разведданные от операторов беспилотников о местоположении противника, расчёт оперативно прибыл на позицию. ▪️Быстро развернув установку, военнослужащие произвели залп 122-мм...

t.me

Russia striking a Ukrainian Kozak armored car and BTR-80 (it's labeled as BTR-4 but it looks like a BTR-80 to me).

Colonelcassad

Пилоты БПЛА бригады «Черные барсы» на Покровском направлении показали, что украинским бронемашинам не скрыться. Итог: минус «Козак-2» и БТР-4 «Буцефал» @btr80

t.me

A series of Russian night strikes against Ukrainian vehicles, Pokrovsk region. Both sides tend to move at night to avoid drones, but this doesn't always work out.

Военный Осведомитель

Подборка ночных ударов FPV-дронами ВТ-40 по технике ВСУ на Покровском направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia's 15th MRBde hits 4 Ukrainian MBTs on the Pokrovsk axis, two right next to each other.

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Ukrainian T-64BV burns, Selidovo.

Colonelcassad

Вражеский Т-64БВ догорает в районе Селидово. @AMinuteOfReadiness

t.me

A destroyed M1A1 near Selidovo.

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A knocked out Ukrainian M1A1, with the commander's cupola missing, possibly blown off.

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The last trains are leaving Pokrovsk. Ukraine is preparing to cut train service.

Colonelcassad

Из Покровска уходят последние поезда Проводники уже в бронежилетах, а поезда теперь ходят только до Павлограда. @Sever_Z

t.me

In Ukrainsk Ukraine appears to be losing the city so fast that a Ukrainian volunteer team evacuating civilians from Ukrainsk ran into Russian soldiers who appear to be casually walking around the area. They confirm these are civilians being evacuated and appear to let them leave.

Военный Осведомитель

Российский боец наткнулся на украинских волонтеров, вывозивших мирное население из Украинска, за который сейчас идут бои, но не стал стрелять в неизвестных людей в снаряжении, а уточнил у них кто они такие, после чего дал команду уезжать как можно скорее. Оказалось, что ранее данный волонтер...

t.me

In Selidovo Ukrainian civilians are evacuating, the lady doesn't seem to believe that Ukraine is defending the town saying "What National Guard? There's two faggots left".

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Наши люди в Селидово: Какая Нацгвардия?! Два пид*р*са осталось! - бабушка рубит правду матку По украинским каналам летит видео, на котором пожилая женщина говорит правду об отношении жителей Донбасса к украинским нацистам и оккупантам. t.me/RVvoenkor

‼️Огненный ад для врага под Курахово: "Солнцепёки" сжигают позиции ВСУ ▪️"При проведении этой задачи уже не впервой нашими парнями из РХБЗ бандеровцы так сильно расстроились о своих павших побратимах, что отправили аж 4 FPV разом, но наши парни из РЭБ достойно встретили их так, что они не...

t.me

Russian strike allegedly on a Ukrainian howitzer near Maksimil'yanovka.

Colonelcassad

Расчет военнослужащего с позывным "Дым" из 238 артиллерийской бригады ВС РФ совместно с 944 самоходным артиллерийским полком, используя орудия 2А65 "Мста-Б" и 2С5 "Гиацинт-С", успешно уничтожили артиллерийское орудие Д-30 украинских националистов в населённом пункте Максимильяновка...

t.me

Ugledar area.

Russia has taken the village of Vodyanoe, the first village west of the highway, and a distinct threat to the supply lines of Ugledar that now run through the fields north of it. Russian forces have also pushed west out of Konstantinovka. On a side note it's not clear if Russia has taken the village of Zolotaya Niva west of Prechistovka. Some reports indicated as much and the Kalibrated map has it marked as Russian, but we don't have footage out of it, and other map makers disagree. On the flip side we're only now getting footage of the assault on Prechistovka itself (below) so perhaps something will come out in the next few days.

‼️ Армия России освободила Водяное на Угледарском направлении ▪️Угледарское направление. Работающий на ГУР ресурс DeepState сообщает о занятии ВС РФ посёлка Водяное, территории завода «СтройДеталь» и южнее расположенных дач. Российские войска расширили фронт наступления шириной до 3.5 км на...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 923: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army continue advancing west of Prechystivka taking new positions in the direction to Zolota Nyva, to where the Ukrainian army retreated to. Map: [...

t.me

Russian forces raise the flag over the Coal Mine No1 north of Ugledar. Russia also has the refuse mound associated with it.

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‼️Кадры операции по освобождению Пречистовки: штурм поселка морпехами ▪️Кадры атаки российских войск и последующего штурма Пречистовки на фланге Угледара. ▪️Населенный пункт освобождён морпехами 40-й бригады с Камчатки при поддержке 37 бригады и других подразделений группировки "Восток"...

t.me

A view from a Russian tank with a mine trawl rolling towards Prechistovka. It passes by what looks like a destroyed BTR-70, with a drone cage. I suspect it's a Russian vehicle based on the direction it's facing, but this isn't necessarily true, the drone cage looks more Ukrainian and it could have been a Ukrainian vehicle involved in local troop movements.

Dambiev

Штурм Пречистовки на Угледарском направлении глазами танкистов из Бурятии. На видео - экипаж танка разминирует минным тралом подходы к этому населенному пункту для дальнейшего успешного наступления наших войск.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Штурм Пречистовки на Угледарском направлении глазами танкистов из Бурятии. На видео - экипаж танка разминирует минным тралом подходы к этому населенному пункту для дальнейшего успешного наступления наших войск. @chdambiev

t.me

Ukrainian POWs from the 72nd Mech Bde captured near Ugledar.

Colonelcassad

В ходе боёв на Угледарском направлении забайкальцы приняли ещё троих солдат 72 отдельной механизированной бригады ВСУ. Кучно пошли. Докладывают, что после начала наступления группировки "Восток" на позициях боевиков под Угледаром творится сущая неразбериха — даёт о себе знать пренебрежение...

t.me

Feanor · Sep 11, 2024

Zaporozhye front.

In Velikaya Novoselka Russia drops a 1500 kg bomb. Russian advances in this area have mostly stopped. It's unclear if this is due to stiff Ukrainian resistance or due to Russia's focus being elsewhere.

Colonelcassad

Времевское направление: 1,5-тонная объемно-детонирующая бомба (ОДАБ) навестила пункт временной дислокации боевиков 128 бригады территориальной обороны Украины в Великой Новосёлке, оборудованный в здании гимназии. По нашим данным, там могло располагаться до 50 человек личного состава. Вражеские...

t.me

Dnepr front.

Russia captured Belogrudiy island in the Dnepr delta.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 926: Situation on Kherson front: During the last hours Russian Army fully captured Bilohrudyi island. There are reports about the infiltration of Russian reconnaissance groups in the island of Korabela north of it. Map: [...

t.me

Russia strikes, allegedly, an M270, Kherson region. However we can't really make out what kind of vehicle they hit.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Геноцид американских «супер систем» не прекращается ни на день «Искандер-М» уничтожил американскую РСЗО М270 MLRS, вспомогательную технику и живую силу ВСУ в районе н.п. Малая Сейдеминуха в Херсонской области t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strike on a Ukrainian mortar position, Kherson region.

Colonelcassad

Херсонское направление, правый берег Днепра Чуть-чуть плохо замаскировали свой минометик и мгновенно получили привет от наших артиллеристов. @russian_airborne

t.me

Black Sea/Crimea.

There are reports from Russia of an attempt by Ukraine to seize a platform in the Black Sea using 14 Willard Sea Force boats. Russia claims 8 boats destroyed using aircraft, and the attempt repulsed. There are reports of Ukrainian forces using MANPADS from the boats.

Рыбарь

О попытке высадки противника на платформы в Черном море Минувшей ночью противник предпринял попытку высадки на платформу «Крым-2» на Голицынском газовом месторождении. Как сообщили в Минобороны России, противник задействовал 14 катеров Willard Sea Force с членами сил специальных операций ВМС...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Минобороны сообщило, что сегодня ночью ВСУ попытались захватить российскую самоподъемную буровую установку «Крым-2», расположенную в акватории Черного моря. Сообщается, что для захвата буровой вышки ГУР Украины использовались американские катеров Willard Sea Force с десантом из ССО Украины. По...

t.me

Curiously enough Russia also hit a Ukrainian platform with Kh-31 missiles.

Colonelcassad

Удары по газодобывающим установкам Прошлой ночью российские истребители неоднократно атаковали самоподъемную газодобывающую буровую установку (СПБУ) «Украина», расположенную к востоку от острова Змеиный. По району объекта было выпущено не менее шести ракет типа «Х-31П». На данный момент...

t.me

There is a Russian Su-30SM lost over the Black Sea, possibly in one of the two incidents above.

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Прилеты дронов-камикадзе "Герань-2" по местам стоянок авиатехники на аэродроме Долгинцево Днепропетровской области, объективный контроль осуществляется с разведывательного БПЛА, висящего прямо над аэродромом. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian soldier films a destroyed Marder. I don't know where this is, it has a strange cross marking.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Гордые водители Desertcross 1000-3, обшитых металлоломом МТ-ЛБ и Т-54 дают свой жестокий вердикт продукции ВПК ФРГ. Похоже автор видео мог бы стать знатным экспертом на каналах финкоторговцев и турбапатриотов, а также на многочисленных других площадках.

t.me

A damaged Ka-52 with an extra armor panel over the cockpit side that probably saved the pilot's life. Note it negatively impacts visibility.

"Под грозной броней ты не ведаешь ран..."

Бронещиток, прикрывающий голову пилота Ка-52, выдержал попадания шрапнели

afirsov.livejournal.com

Another improvised Russian MLRS using presumably S-8 rockets, this one on an UAZ Patriot pickup.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

An interesting set of spaced armor on a Msta-S, Russian. It even has a moving shield for part of the barrel.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Последствия взрыва склада в Киеве. На складе хранилось вооружение для ВСУ.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

t.me

Iranian, Indian, and Pakistani 125mm tank shells all in Ukraine.

Соціально-Побутовий Журнал "Водограй"

Різноманіття танкових 125-мм ОФС в ЗСУ. -Іранські 3VOF19 -Пакистанські 125 mm TK HE -Індійський SHELL 125 mm HE cred

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Украинский МиГ-29, совершивший аварийную посадку весной 2024 года на поле в Днепропетровской области. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

KipPotapych · Thursday at 12:47 AM

Thanks for the long and detailed update, Feanor.

Feanor said:
Russia hits Dolgintsevo airfield, again. The locations where Ukraine bases their jets are marked in blue but with the quality of the video I can't make out if they actually got any.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Прилеты дронов-камикадзе "Герань-2" по местам стоянок авиатехники на аэродроме Долгинцево Днепропетровской области, объективный контроль осуществляется с разведывательного БПЛА, висящего прямо над аэродромом. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia hits allegedly an S-300 position. Something cooks off and flies off, suggesting some sort of rocket/missile system was there, but whether it's an S-300 or something else is unclear. Note it's fairly unusual for Shaheds to be used against battlefield targets, and this system is hiding in a treeline suggesting it might be closer to the front line.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

БПЛА "Герань-2" уничтожил пусковую установку украинской ЗРК С-ЗОО В сети появилось видео с атакой, как утверждается, дрона-камикадзе "Герань-2" пусковой установки С-300ПС, принадлежавшей ВСУ. Деталей пока немного, видно, что установка действующая - в результате взрыва нештатно сработал...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Кадры уничтожения дроном "Герань-2", как заявляется, ЗРК С-300ПС ВСУ. Процесс корректировался с разведывательного дрона. На кадрах видно пикирование камикадзе к цели, мощный взрыв и последующий самопроизвольный старт одной из зенитных ракет уничтоженного комплекса. Это довольно нехарактерное...

t.me

They claim that Shaheds were used for these strikes. First, they are quite precise. Second, if that was a S-300 position, it is likely quite stationary or very close to the frontline, like you said, and still very precise. There must be more to it, no? Some kind of improvements must have been done to the Shaheds if they can use them for such precise strikes (and apparently uninterrupted). Any thoughts on that?

Feanor · Thursday at 1:39 AM

KipPotapych said:
They claim that Shaheds were used for these strikes. First, they are quite precise. Second, if that was a S-300 position, it is likely quite stationary or very close to the frontline, like you said, and still very precise. There must be more to it, no? Some kind of improvements must have been done to the Shaheds if they can use them for such precise strikes (and apparently uninterrupted). Any thoughts on that?

I don't see any reason why a Shahed wouldn't be able to hit a S-300 battery position. It's unlikely there's only one TEL there, and causing any of the missiles to explode would amplify the damage considerably. Lastly Russia has had a habit of underestimating the quantity of munitions needed to thorough destroy something. We've seen many videos where they use a Lancet to strike a single vehicle in a column. The logical thing would be an airburst or cluster munition Iskander or Tornado-S strike, and a Lancet or two to finish off survivors. So it wouldn't surprise me if a single Shahed was sent to hit a battery of S-300s and got one TEL but ultimately didn't wipe it out. The real question to me is why a Shahed was used in this manner at all. It's unusual for them to be used against battlefield targets. If we see more of that it might indicate a change in CONOPS.

T.C.P · Thursday at 2:38 AM

Feanor said:
I don't see any reason why a Shahed wouldn't be able to hit a S-300 battery position. It's unlikely there's only one TEL there, and causing any of the missiles to explode would amplify the damage considerably. Lastly Russia has had a habit of underestimating the quantity of munitions needed to thorough destroy something. We've seen many videos where they use a Lancet to strike a single vehicle in a column. The logical thing would be an airburst or cluster munition Iskander or Tornado-S strike, and a Lancet or two to finish off survivors. So it wouldn't surprise me if a single Shahed was sent to hit a battery of S-300s and got one TEL but ultimately didn't wipe it out. The real question to me is why a Shahed was used in this manner at all. It's unusual for them to be used against battlefield targets. If we see more of that it might indicate a change in CONOPS.

I think this Shahed on the S-300 video has been proven to be archival footage from 2023

x.com

KipPotapych · Thursday at 3:07 AM

^ Good catch:

ИЗНАНКА

Уничтожение ПУ С-300ПС с помощью БпЛА "Герань-2" на запорожском направлении ИЗНАНКА ★ Дзен ★ Прислать новость

t.me

Edit: Was it a Shahed though?

Feanor · Thursday at 12:20 PM

T.C.P said:
I think this Shahed on the S-300 video has been proven to be archival footage from 2023

x.com

x.com

Thanks for the call out. A lot of these black and white videos presumably shown through thermals are hard to analyze because it's hard to tell what's going on, and the volume of footage from this war is just massive.

Fredled · Thursday at 6:25 PM

Finally the Russians started their counter offensive in Kursk. Footage reposted by Feanor and the recent map show that they had some initial success. Russians were obliged to act to prevent the Glushkovsky district between the Seym river and the Ukrainian border to fall, and it was about time. Between 3000 and 4000 Russian soldiers could have been trapped there. These soldier were attacking Ukrainian forces from the west, while the counter attack was under way in the north.

If Russians succeed in reopening the link to this area, Ukrainians will lose an opportunity for another victory. Russians should do whatever they can to recover the access to this region. If it's taken by the Ukrainians, with all the POWs that they could take, it would be a serious humiliation for them. So I expect that they will focus all their efforts in that direction, reluctantly. They will probably succeed. At least they better do.

On the other hand, Ukrainians may be motivated by the prospect of a success there, but this is not critical. They won't be humiliated or lose important strategic position if they withdraw from this area. Karkhiv and Pokrovsk are more important. Thought it doesn't seem that they have mobilised important forces to the Pokrovsk region. Just enough to stop the Russian advance.

There were reports that while the Russian forces in the Glushkovsky district moved to the east of the pocket to attack Ukrinians, the latter attempted to invade the pocket from the south. There is no confirmation of any success so far, but it shows that Ukrainians are not ready to give up this area quickly.

According to various experts, Russian are moving reinforcements to Kursk by small units of 100 or 200 men at a time, picked up almost everywhere, including from the Donbass. They are not moving entire brigades because they don,t want the movements to be visible. However this could affect the cohesion of the counter offensive.

The Kursk region shouldn't be the main focus of the Ukrainian strategy. It should remain a diversion, all thought a big one. A more useful operation would be to bypass Vovchansk and attack Belgorod. They have made some attempts to do so one or two weeks ago, without success.

Retaking territories in the Donbass seems less and less feasible because the Russians forces there are too important and the Surovikin Line is still there. The hope that Ukraine would retake some land by force has almost completely faded away. It doesn't mean Zelensky is ready to negotiate and give up land to Putin. Instead he is making everything so that Putin would want to negotiate.

There were conversations here about the number of soldiers Russia is recruiting. According to the various sources, they recruit about 1000 soldiers per day. And lose around 1000 soldiers per day. It's possible that they lose slightly less when wounded recover and are sent back to the slaughterhouse. And so that they manage to increase their numbers slightly.
This is verified indirectly by the fact: Despite recruiting so many, the Russian advance is still very slow, while it took them one month to gather enough troops to mount a counter offensive in Kursk (this delay is baffling all specialists). Russia has barely enough men for their offensive in the Donbas but have very little reserve for emergency situations.

KipPotapych · Friday at 2:28 AM

Ukrainians claim to have retaken Obukhovka with minimal losses:

Post on X: x.com

JD Vance talked about Trump’s plan on Russia-Ukraine war today.

“I think what this looks like is Trump sits down, he says to the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Europeans: You guys need to figure out. What does a peaceful settlement look like? And what it probably looks like is the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarized zone,” Vance said Wednesday on “The Shawn Ryan Show.”

The proposed demilitarized zone, Vance added, would be “heavily fortified so the Russians don’t invade again.” As part of the peace plan, Vance said, Ukraine would maintain its independence in exchange for a guarantee of neutrality — meaning Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO or other “allied institutions.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/12/vance-trump-ukraine-russia-war-plan/

Almost “cute”, haha. Of course, anyone who watched the debate the other day probably realizes that the chances of this duo rolling into the White House are decreasing and have been ever since Biden dropped out. Trump sounded like a complete donkey (which he is). They appear to be shading the Republican support, not only “independents’”. There is, of course, still almost two months remaining and things may change, though I personally don’t see how (without any extraordinary events, of course). Of course, there is also a chance, however little, that the USA will be overwhelmed by their own internal affairs if/when Trump loses, that could be quite significant.

Speaking of “extraordinary events”, there are contradicting reports, but most now suggest that Biden is on the verge of approving Storm Shadows/Scalps strikes into actual Russia.

President Biden appears on the verge of clearing the way for Ukraine to launch long-range Western weapons deep inside Russian territory, as long as it doesn’t use arms provided by the United States, European officials say.[…]

Britain has already signaled to the United States that it is eager to let Ukraine use its “Storm Shadow” long-range missiles to strike at Russian military targets far from the Ukrainian border. But it wants explicit permission from Mr. Biden in order to demonstrate a coordinated strategy with the United States and France, which makes a similar missile. American officials say Mr. Biden has not made a decision, but will hear from Mr. Starmer on Friday.

Biden Poised to Approve Ukraine’s Use of Long-Range Western Weapons in Russia

The topic will be on the agenda Friday with the first official visit to Washington by Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer.

www.nytimes.com

It’s funny how the article words it though, isn’t it? “Eager to let use” but “wants an explicit permission … to demonstrate a coordinated strategy” with the US (and France). I am sure there is more to the permission than that. For instance the guiding is without a doubt provided by the US, likely on the component level as well. What they are implying, however, by “the coordinated strategy” is, perhaps, they want to make sure (and for it expressed publicly) that the US will stand behind them if they grant such permission to Ukraine. This, in my opinion, will be a huge mistake with potentially catastrophic consequences, but even minor consequences will be something that we may deal with for decades to come. And it likely won’t change a thing.

In a series of meetings with senior administration officials in recent weeks, Ukrainian officials have been arguing that their seizure of actual territory inside Russia demonstrates that U.S. fears of crossing Russian red lines were overblown.[…]

To a growing number of military analysts and former U.S. officials, the administration’s reticence makes no sense, especially since, they say, Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has yet to elicit an escalatory response from Moscow.

“Easing the restrictions on Western weapons will not cause Moscow to escalate,” 17 former ambassadors and generals wrote in a letter to the administration this week. “We know this because Ukraine is already striking territory Russia considers its own — including Crimea and Kursk — with these weapons and Moscow’s response remains unchanged.”[…]

With the Kursk incursion, Mr. Umerov argued, Ukraine has demonstrated it can invade, and even occupy, Russian territory without igniting World War III, according to two officials.

None of the above should make any sense to a reasonable person simply because Russia is already at war with Ukraine. It would be silly to conclude that Ukrainian incursion and occupation of a small parcel of the Russian land would lead to World War 3. Why would it? Especially because (almost) everyone went out of their ways to reinforce that they hand no hand in it and no one but Ukraine had anything to do with planning and execution of the operation. Again, there is already a war between Ukraine and Russia. There is also an indirect war (call it proxy or whatever you want) between Russia and the West. Pretty sure most everyone here would agree on this, but Russia is convinced that this is the case and that they are fighting the entire NATO+, even if indirectly.

Now, however, the argument is being made that permitting Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with western made and western guided long-range assets is reasonable because Ukraine has been striking Russian infrastructure with their “home-made” UAVs and that didn’t lead to WW3. How absurd is that? Note also the following in the first paragraph quoted above: “their seizure” and “US crossing … the red line”, where “their” refers to Ukraine. I really do often wonder when reading such articles and statements by various officials if these people are serious and understand what they are talking about.

But lets assume their (completely faulty) premise is true. Clearly there is a risk to such a decision and that risk is quite high. But what are the (potential) rewards?

Mr. Austin continues to believe that the use of U.S. weapons for long-range strikes into Russia won’t turn the tide of the war, in part because there are not enough ATACMS — or British and French missiles — to sustain an attack.

At Ramstein, a U.S. air base in Germany, last Friday, Mr. Austin added that loosening the reins on Ukraine’s use of ATACMS would not resolve one of the biggest problems facing Ukrainian cities and troops — so-called glide bombs launched from Russian attack planes deep inside Russia.

“As we look at the battlefield currently, we know that the Russians have actually moved their aircraft that are using the glide bombers beyond the range of ATACMS,” Mr. Austin said.

I am not sure about the ATACMS, but I am convinced (I do not have anything to support this claim with at the moment) that neither the Brits nor French posses anywhere near enough missiles to supply Ukraine with. I can probably dig some things up from the statements of the British officials, in fact I recall them stating the same just a couple of (few?) weeks ago, suggesting that they do not have many more (if any) Storm Shadows to provide to Ukraine, but take it as my opinion only. Of course, we can also assume (and rightfully so) if there is no immediate response by Russia, ATACMS will follow suit shortly after - Biden doesn’t have much time left in the oval office. (I should mention here that I hope some read the article I cited a few posts ago about escalation.) However,

Mr. Umerov’s counter — made during the Pentagon meeting, officials said — was that even if the ATACMS are not a game changer, they can still be used to good effect to hit Russian sites inside Russia and to disrupt Russian logistics.

So I am going to come back to this point for the nth time: What is the plan? What is the strategy? What is the goal? What is the purpose of further and most significant escalation yet (!), that carries very significant risks and, likely, much less significant rewards. No one has answered these simple questions yet, after 2,5+ years. “Ukraine must win” is neither a strategy, nor a plan. Frankly, it isn’t even a goal because they had already lost a long time ago, regardless of what happens next.

Putin issued his thoughts on the subject:

In some of his most hawkish comments on the subject yet, Putin said such a move would drag the countries supplying Kyiv with long-range missiles directly into the war since satellite targeting data and the actual programming of the missiles' flight paths would have to be done by NATO military personnel because Kyiv did not have the capabilities itself.

"So this is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not. It is a question of deciding whether or not NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict," Putin told Russian state TV.

"If this decision is taken, it will mean nothing less than the direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This will be their direct participation, and this, of course, will significantly change the very essence, the very nature of the conflict."

Russia would be forced to take what Putin called "appropriate decisions" based on the new threats.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-west-will-be-fighting-directly-with-russia-if-it-lets-kyiv-use-long-2024-09-12/

I am going to cut it here because I have other thing to do before I hit the bed.

KipPotapych · Friday at 2:35 AM

Closing the tabs I used for citations in the post above, I noticed another one. Zelensky informed us that the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk is going according to the “Ukrainian plan”. So there is a plan!

Speaking at a news conference, Zelensky said that the Russian “counteroffensive actions were according to our Ukrainian plan.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/12/ukraine-kursk-russia-counteroffensive/

He, of course, didn’t go into further details.

Feanor · Friday at 1:28 PM

KipPotapych said:
Closing the tabs I used for citations in the post above, I noticed another one. Zelensky informed us that the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk is going according to the “Ukrainian plan”. So there is a plan!

Speaking at a news conference, Zelensky said that the Russian “counteroffensive actions were according to our Ukrainian plan.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/12/ukraine-kursk-russia-counteroffensive/

He, of course, didn’t go into further details.

Curiously enough Russian sources are claiming the opposite, the counter-offensive is continuing successfully. Neither Suriyakmaps nor Kalibrated have updated since yesterday, so we're in a fog of war for the time being. Z-archive is silent so far. Of course the source is Russian MoD which means it's not particularly reliable.

ВС РФ освободили четыре населенных пункта в Курской области - Газета.Ru | Новости

Вооруженные силы России освободили еще четыре населенных пункта в Курской области. Об этом сообщает Минобороны РФ.

www.gazeta.ru

KipPotapych · Friday at 3:51 PM

^ Yeah, the Ukrainian sources I follow are not reporting anything of interest either after the Obukhovka report.

That article slightly misrepresents what Zelensky said:

"Россияне начали контрнаступательные действия, это идет по нашему украинскому плану", - подчеркнул Зеленский.

Or

“Russians have began counteroffensive actions, it is going according to our Ukrainian plan” stated Zelensky.

From UNIAN, where I saw it first. I believe the only thing that is maybe going according to their plan is that Russians are counterattacking. As to the scale, quick Russian advances (maybe stopped now?), and who is participating, I would assume that was not part of the plan.

I recently discovered this account on X that appears to be doing a pretty great job on the mapping side of things, including fortifications, and analysis isn’t bad either. Here is their today’s take on Ukrainsk, which also further outlines the importance of the area beyond Pokrovsk that is mostly talked about by everyone:

Thread By @Playfra0 - 1 Ukrainsk Let's make the stock of the s..

1 Ukrainsk Let's make the stock of the situation 2 As of now fighting is onging in the southern dachas as well as in the easternmost and southernmost

unrollnow.com

Post on X: x.com

KipPotapych · Saturday at 2:57 AM

It appears that the Russian advances in Kursk have slowed down significantly. Obukhovka is reported to be captured by Russians as of Sept 13. Snagost is not entirely captured (this is also partially confirmed by a couple of videos I saw of Russians dropping bombs at the Ukrainian positions in the village - of course, the videos can be a few days old, but reported as fresh by Ukrainians (Russians do the same)). This is according to Ukrainian sources.

Post on X: x.com

Source for the report: Russia's war on Ukraine. 13.09.24

According to the same report, Russians advanced in Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove

Pokrovsk looks really bad (though the Russian advances were, of course, stopped as per the “top men”). Took me a while to realize that there are two villages named Lisivka again, lol (even though i knew it before and Feanor mentioned it in his update the other day, but I forgot). Everything in the report above was consistent with other (pro-) Ukrainian sources/maps that I looked at, except some include certain locations as a grey zone vs captured and vice versa. Except for the Lisivka until I realized it is the one east of Ukrainsk, not the one north-west of Novohrodivka. Man, these names. Then there are Zhelanne, New Zhelanne, Other Zhelanne, First Zhelanne, and other Zhelannes. Go figure. Some are next to each other, others not so much. Anyway…

It is not a stretch to predict that Ukrainsk, including the terikon, is going to fall rather sooner than later. Today there were reports of Russians storming the Ukrainian positions at this location:

This is from a post on X by a reliable (Ukrainian) source: x.com. I haven’t seen this to be reflected on any of the latest maps yet (some don’t even include it as the “grey zone” yet - case in point above), but it likely will in the next day or two depending on whether the current and future attacks are successful.

We recently discussed the Czech initiative and countries refusing to pay into it in spite of prior commitments. We can add Poland to the list of non-contributors:

Post on X: x.com

Original source in Polish: Wyborcza.pl

A short article at Reuters briefly discussing (some of the) potential responses from Russia to the Ukrainian strikes with western assets into Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-options-ukraine-missiles-response-includes-nuclear-test-experts-say-2024-09-13/

There are some interesting comments, especially by Sergey Makarov, who used to be an adviser to Putin and an analyst nowadays. I am not going to take up space pasting quotes since, I think, everyone can read it without paywalls or anything. I would add from myself that there will be a response, without a single little doubt in my mind. We just don’t know what it is. I already discussed it briefly a few weeks ago, so not going to repeat or add to it at the moment.

On this note, I was going to add more to my post on the subject of the Russian nuclear doctrine in the General Russia thread, but didn’t have the time. I will try to do so tomorrow.

Another little note. I listened to a couple of In Moscow’s Shadows podcasts today - I am behind - while doing “household duties” and want to mention something here that Mark very briefly talked about. This is the episode I am citing:

In Moscow's Shadows 162: Lavrov's (Living) Obituary - In Moscow's Shadows

Empty rumours of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's death on the internet yesterday, got me thinking about his shrinking role, and the twilight of Russia's technocrats. Besides, he is already politically dead, so it’s in a way not too early ...

inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com

He talks about the latest poll by the Levada Centre that strongly suggests that the support of continuing military action has increased since the Kursk invasion. This number went up from 34% in July to 41% after the incursion. The number of those who supported the idea of the peace talks, in contrast, has decreased from 58 to 50%. I just wanted to note this because there was some discussion recently of the subject and the idea that Russians will rally against Putin and whatnot. Like I argued then without any references at the time, this had the exact opposite effect. I would have to loook up the actual poll, which I am not willing to do at the moment, but I would propose that some regions’ numbers have changed much more significantly than that average Mark talks about. One can reasonably put parallels between this and the recruitment numbers as well.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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