The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

Having said the above and softly flow into another intersecting theory, Ukraine will attack Russia again within the next few days at another location. This makes more sense. Rylsk was proposed as another axis of attack and it makes a lot of sense. Except that Rylsk is quite a bit further from the border than Sudzha, for example. It is an option though. Reportedly, there was a convoy of Russian equipment destroyed in the Rylsk region:

Readovka

Кадры с места пожара в Рыльском районе Курской области — горит техника На видео от местных жителей, которые хотели проехать по дороге в Рыльском районе, пожар — горит техника. На кадрах реакция местных, которые пытались эвакуироваться, но развернулись и поехали в обратную сторону. Перед...

t.me

No idea what was actually destroyed or what is burning in that video (the original source).

Further BDA here (warning, corpses):

Video published this morning confirmed a column was destroyed last night at Oktyabrskoye village of Rylsk district of Kursk region Rylsk, Kursk oblast - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Video published this morning confirmed a column was destroyed last night at Oktyabrskoye village of Rylsk district of Kursk region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics...

liveuamap.com

If the column was burning at night, this suggests it was caught by UKR ground elements or possibly a night capable air strike (F-16?).

It also shows the RU arent paying attention to dispersion during road marches near the front.

 

[Feanor]

Further BDA here (warning, corpses):

Video published this morning confirmed a column was destroyed last night at Oktyabrskoye village of Rylsk district of Kursk region Rylsk, Kursk oblast - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Video published this morning confirmed a column was destroyed last night at Oktyabrskoye village of Rylsk district of Kursk region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics...

liveuamap.com

If the column was burning at night, this suggests it was caught by UKR ground elements or possibly a night capable air strike (F-16?).

It also shows the RU arent paying attention to dispersion during road marches near the front.

Russian sources claim it was HIMARS, in my opinion a much likelier choice than a risky F-16 sortie, though of course anything is possible. There are tons of night-capable UAVs from both sides.

It’s still hard to see where this is going. It’s not even possible to say what area Ukraine has actually captured at this point. Quite a bit of a run, which clearly isn’t sustainable or logical. Surely not with the reported up to a couple thousand troops. I doubt it is 2,000 troops though. 5K maybe?

It really could be as little as 2000 troops. Much of the Ukrainian presence isn't really units holding locations but mobile elements running around. A platoon sized element is behind many of the "captured" villages, where a Ukrainian unit is clearly reported moving through there, and the internet maps tend to take that as "village captured" which may or may not be the case. Ukrainian mobile groups have penetrated far past Sudzha but meanwhile Sudzha itself remains contested, and Ukrainian forces didn't actually capture any of the positions past it. There isn't a solid front line yet. This makes it hard to say for sure what areas are "controlled" or "captured".

Anyway, I think the part that is mainly missed by many observers is that, as I mentioned in my previous post, in the territory of Russia, there are tens of thousands of conscripts at the disposal of the MoD, there is Rosgvardia, probably tens of thousands more, MVD, FSB, and so on. It’s a lot of people, though most probably of very little use in situations like this. Equipment? Your guess is as good as mine.

Iirc the old MVD troops of the interior were over 200 000 deep. They were somewhat downsized but then upsized again. I wouldn't be surprised if there are, with this war, between 200 and 300 k Rosgvardiya forces in existence. This is without the FSB elements, or the regular army conscripts.

Reports suggest that Ukraine threw at leas two of their most capable brigades at this, being the 22nd mechanized and 82 air assault brigades. There are reports of other participating groups as well.

I don't think any entire brigades are in play. Rather we're seeing elements of those brigades.

 

[Fredled]

Much of the Ukrainian presence isn't really units holding locations but mobile elements running around.

The goal of the Ukrainians is obviously not to capture territory as it is in Ukraine. Their goal is to inflict maximum damage on Russian forces, strinke their rear. Then eventualy return to Ukraine as fast as they went in. It's possible that Russian convoys heading to the Sudzha disctrict will be much more exposed, much less prepared and more easily destroyed as the example of the convoy shows.

Another thing, Ukrainians went past Russian line fortifications (which were maybe not so though). Now they can drive at full speed without the fear of falling into minefield or stumbling onto dragon teeth or some unseen bunker. They can exploit the full advantage of NATO vehicles and tanks. It would make sens to involve a few Abrams there.

It's possible that they waited the F16s to launch this attack. If so, they would benefit from decent air cover.

They may not want to push as deep inside Russia because it's too risky. Instead they could move laterally, behind the Russian border, behind the Russian lines.

 

[Feanor]

The goal of the Ukrainians is obviously not to capture territory as it is in Ukraine. Their goal is to inflict maximum damage on Russian forces, strinke their rear. Then eventualy return to Ukraine as fast as they went in. It's possible that Russian convoys heading to the Sudzha disctrict will be much more exposed, much less prepared and more easily destroyed as the example of the convoy shows.

We don't know what the goal is. It may be that Ukraine has a peace plan and needs a bargaining chip, in which case a couple hundred sq kms of Russian territory might be needed.

Another thing, Ukrainians went past Russian line fortifications (which were maybe not so though). Now they can drive at full speed without the fear of falling into minefield or stumbling onto dragon teeth or some unseen bunker. They can exploit the full advantage of NATO vehicles and tanks. It would make sens to involve a few Abrams there.

Unless there is a fresh batch of M1s available, it would not. In my opinion even if there is a fresh batch it still would not. The 47th Mech that rides Abrams is engaged on the Pokrovsk axis, it's taken heavy losses. If it can be spared, it needs to be pulled out for rest and reinforcement, as well as get more kit to replace losses. If they can't be spared, then they have to stay where they are to keep trying to blunt the Russian push. In this war the difference between an Abrams and any other tank isn't that significant. Moreover the nature of the fighting is one where MBTs aren't all that important, which is why Ukraine hasn't been using very many in this push.

 

[vikingatespam]

Russian sources claim it was HIMARS, in my opinion a much likelier choice than a risky F-16 sortie, though of course anything is possible. There are tons of night-capable UAVs from both sides.

More BDA:

Video of the attack at Russian military convoy near Rylsk of Kursk region Rylsk, Kursk oblast - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Video of the attack at Russian military convoy near Rylsk of Kursk region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests...

liveuamap.com

What am I looking at ? The projectiles are too fast for gravity dropped mortar rounds, I think. HIMARS would have a hard time hitting a moving convoy. JDAM ?

Edit: I looked at it again, and maybe the convoy wasnt moving. A drone spots it and HIMARS puts a few rounds on it. Look how close the trucks are together.

 

[Feanor]

More BDA:

Video of the attack at Russian military convoy near Rylsk of Kursk region Rylsk, Kursk oblast - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Video of the attack at Russian military convoy near Rylsk of Kursk region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests...

liveuamap.com

What am I looking at ? The projectiles are too fast for gravity dropped mortar rounds, I think. HIMARS would have a hard time hitting a moving convoy. JDAM ?

Edit: I looked at it again, and maybe the convoy wasnt moving. A drone spots it and HIMARS puts a few rounds on it. Look how close the trucks are together.

The video won't play for me. But iirc there is a ground-based SDB version that can be fired from a HIMARS.

 

[vikingatespam]

The video won't play for me. But iirc there is a ground-based SDB version that can be fired from a HIMARS.

If you go to liveuamap.com and find the relevant entry it will play.

 

[Feanor]

If you go to liveuamap.com and find the relevant entry it will play.

It might be my work computer. I'll try looking at it at home.

 

[Rob c]

I think that this operation is far more important to Ukraine that any territory or infrastructure they may capture. This ia because they have been on the defensive for most of this summer and there has been little battle field good news for the country as a hole. This will have a motivating effect for the population and the military's, significantly greater than any gains. on the other side of the coin, the RU military and Putin will be very embarrassed both militarily and politically by this and some giant size ego's will have their feathers some what ruffled which may lead to a less than well planned response.

 

[Fredled]

In this war the difference between an Abrams and any other tank isn't that significant.

That's true on the Pokrovsk front line where tanks are standing under camouflage waiting to be hit by a drone.

By contrast, they can show their full potential in the Kursk incursion. Moving quickly, hitting any target that it can see. That's how they took Iraq in two weeks. Ukes could take the Kursk Oblast in two weeks too with the same Abrams.

According to the French Xavier Tytelman (currently streaming from the front in the Donbas), Ukrainians would have engaged Abrams in the Kurks Incursion. It's of course, not confirmed, but it would make plenty of sens.

Ukes also literaly flooded the Russian sky with drones of all kinds.
Prior to the attack, they flew drones to observe the terrain up to 80km deep inside Russia. Russians didn't notice anything.

Also according to Xavier Tytelman, the truck column was smashed with HIMARS. (I take his information as reliable coming from him, given that's both the Russian version and his.) This is a very important information because it means that Americans lifted limitations on the use of this weapon. It's possible that Ukes didn't ask the authorisation and that Americans don't complain publicaly. Yet, it would be fishy if Ukrainians would strike with a HIMARS something that they can't.

Chechen Kadyrov's fighters were in charge of the border protection where Ukrainians entered. They fled immediately.
Vagners (or former Vagners), based in Belarussia since the Prygozhyn rebelion, were sent in reinforcement to counter the Ukrainian advance. They were eliminated (or disbanded without ceremony).

According to Belarussion chanel BOT TAK (sorry no link because it was watched on another device):
Putin downplays the Kursk event because he doesn't want to admit it's a war. He still wants to call it a Special Military Operation.

The Ukrainian forces have split into 4 columns moving north-west, north and north-east, in a star shape. They have been spot as far as 40km from the border. Apparently they move far, not trying to secure large areas. Only a small detachment is staying in or near Sudzha which is still contested.

People from Sudzha made a video calling Putin for help. Two men and a dozen of women, all beyond retirement age. It speaks volume about the demographic composition in the region.
In another video, another retired women cry while asking Putin to help them.
In the first video the people look rather angry and defiant. While in the second footage, the women beg Stalin Putin because he is the Father of the Nation...

Russians claim to have killed nearly 1000 Ukrainian soldiers, a dozen of tanks and several dozen of other vehicles: In the WW2 Battle of Kursk maybe...

Lukashenko decided to forbid Russian troops from firing at Ukraine from the Belarus territory. Russian forces are still allowed to stay in Belarus but not to fire or launch attacks from the Belarussian territory.
Alledgedly after unofficial talks with European diplomats.

Opinion:
I read and hear a lot this theory that Ukrainians want to size Russian territory as bargaining chip for peace cease fire talks in the near future.
IMO it's not feasable. Ukrainians would have to divert too many troops to defends the invaded territory until negotiations start.

However, again according to Xavier Tytelman, Ukrainians moved there with engineering vehicles. indicating that they could build fortification and be there to stay. Of course this informations is not clear, let alone verified.

 

[Fredled]

On top of that, there was a massive combined drone attacks during the Kursk attack, on Liptesk, Belgorod and Sevastopol. 75 long range drones according to Russian sources.

 

[vikingatespam]

Lots of talk on various sources, youtube and other, talking about advances to Kursk. I really doubt that that UKR has the forces and desire to lunge that deep into RU. Im still wondering what the goal is.

 

[Feanor]

Lots of talk on various sources, youtube and other, talking about advances to Kursk. I really doubt that that UKR has the forces and desire to lunge that deep into RU. Im still wondering what the goal is.

Whatever the goal is, the Ukrainian advances now appear to be halted. There's always the possibility of a second echelon entering the fight, but it's not clear this would break Russian lines as they begin to form. This war is unkind to massed formations of any type. I suspect we're about to see Russia slowly pushing Ukraine out.

It appears to have been an opportunistic attack, to draw Russian resources and inflict damage, though the question of who took more losses remains open. Russia certainly took a beating, but Ukrainian forces in the open took one too, the videos are now popping up. I suspect Ukraine is out ahead, but it's not obvious. I'll try to make an update post some time in the next couple of days.

 

[KipPotapych]

Further BDA here (warning, corpses):

Video published this morning confirmed a column was destroyed last night at Oktyabrskoye village of Rylsk district of Kursk region Rylsk, Kursk oblast - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Video published this morning confirmed a column was destroyed last night at Oktyabrskoye village of Rylsk district of Kursk region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics...

liveuamap.com

If the column was burning at night, this suggests it was caught by UKR ground elements or possibly a night capable air strike (F-16?).

It also shows the RU arent paying attention to dispersion during road marches near the front.

Not sure what video was there as I think it is no longer available, but things are clear as day on that incident, indeed. I am assuming it was this video (There are a lot of corpses, not an easy watch at all, unless you are… I guess I will withhold my judgement. I never post videos of such events (or any corpses, for that matter), so this one is a “special occasion”, I guess. That would be a warning for corpses.):

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Та ж колона. Просто розвал

t.me

The strike itself:

КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno

Ну який же розйоб! сурс.

t.me

This was confirmed to be a GMLRS strike by many who know better (pretty sure I saw photos that confirm it to be the case 100%, but don’t want to look and believe the link that follows is sufficient). For example:



There is the same video in the tweet linked above but without the annoying music, for those who use tweeter.

A pretty bad strike for the Russians. Really bad. They almost lucked out though because all the hits appear to be almost concentrated to one “spot”, with a couple of “misses”. Yes, it does look like they were just sitting there long enough. Almost amazing 2.5 years in. But we can now see that Ukraine clearly has permission to strike Russia beyond “the immediate bordering zone” or whatever they called it as related to the Kharkiv offensive. This was also quickly confirmed by the announcement of another aid package from the US hours after the strike, that includes more HIMARS munitions.

US announces $125 million military aid package for Ukraine

The U.S. is sending Ukraine an additional $125 million in weapons to assist in its military operations against Russia, including much-needed air defense capabilities, radars to detect and counter enemy artillery and anti-tank weapons.

apnews.com

While I can agree with Rob just a couple of posts above there, from what I read in regards to the Ukrianian troops in general, I get a hunch (and often straight up statements of such) of disappointment because things are still the same bad or worse all over the front line. For the general population, it is probably a great success. The biggest part, of course, is us in the west though. I really don’t remember the last time I heard any “good news” before this event. Though I personally do not see how this is good news, really. For instance, I saw reports that Russia had transferred some elite troops from the reserves, ex-Wagner joined the fight, and so on. Perhaps, this is the case. The strike on the column talked about above though… That looked like a bunch of conscripted kids lives of whom were basically wasted for no particular reason, more than anything else. I don’t believe this has much (if any) effect on the battlefield (even if my conclusion in the previous sentence is wrong). Maybe I am wrong and this is still developing after all, though my understanding is this offensive has stalled for the most part, as was expected. Things are a little more clear now as well. A good chunk of it was probably accomplished like this:

In regard to the image above, one would think that if they were the Russian driver in the vehicke, they would make that rider fall off the bike, no? I mean one would think you would even make the effort to turn around, catch up and… unless there is more in front and behind the bike rider then the photo depicts. Sorry, I have no idea where I saved the image from earlier today - it says Kommersant photo, but I do not think I took it from Kommersant.

Anyway, what the goal is I have no idea. I think if they withdraw now with relatively little losses, this should be regarded to as a successful mission (still with a lot of caution though as the front line is actually failing). Again, I do not see how this helps anything as far the war situation goes. If they start digging in and insist on keeping whatever chunk they actually end up holding, this will be a loss, in my opinion, because they will be stretching already overstretched line they are trying to hold. Yet again, Russia has a tendency (as does Ukraine) to spend a ridiculous amount of resources on something that has very little meaning (or none at all, in this case). So who knows. But it just can’t work in the Ukrainian favour in the medium to long run.


In other news, Reuters reported today that there are “dozens” of Russian military personnel in Iran training to use the Fath-360 systems. They are also saying that “hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons” are expected to be delivered to Russia and that would be imminently.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ae...les-russia-soon-intel-sources-say-2024-08-09/

 

[Fredled]

That looked like a bunch of conscripted kids lives of whom were basically wasted for no particular reason, more than anything else. I don’t believe this has much (if any) effect on the battlefield

No matter who they were, conscript, contract soldiers, elite guard ... It doesn't matter whether it has an effect on the battlefield or not. Of course it's better if it has, but from the Ukrainian point of view, the most important is that they were killed mercilessly. They were member of the Russian army and the Russian army is attacking Ukraine. Therefore Ukrainians is trying to kill or capture any member of the Russian forces. They even kill Vagners in Africa, with no effect on the DonBas battle field neither.

The goal for the Ukrainians is to increase the number of Russian families who have one of their member killed, maimed or taken prisoner. So that Russians understand that making war on another country and killing people is bad and dangerous because others are also able to defend themselves and to kill you.

n regard to the image above, one would think that if they were the Russian driver in the vehicle, they would make that rider fall off the bike, no?

No:
Why should he do it, assuming he is a civilian? A medal? Some money?
Imagine that the Ukrainian avoid the crash, take his gun and shoot at him. Or, worse, that he gets arrested later by his colleagues who will "interrogate" him.
No, trying to kill people is not a good idea. Many Russians have already suffered from this.
Better not to mess up and avoid troubles.

Whatever the goal is, the Ukrainian advances now appear to be halted. There's always the possibility of a second echelon entering the fight, but it's not clear this would break Russian lines as they begin to form. This war is unkind to massed formations of any type. I suspect we're about to see Russia slowly pushing Ukraine out.

If they start digging in and insist on keeping whatever chunk they actually end up holding, this will be a loss, in my opinion, because they will be stretching already overstretched line they are trying to hold.

None of the military expert I have heard commenting on these events yesterday believe that they will stay on the long term. They certainly a plan to withdraw as soon as Russian reinforcement are on sight. This should be a matter of hours.
Ukrainians may also face logistical problem even before Russians reinforcements arrive. Running out of fuel.

 

[Feanor]

None of the military expert I have heard commenting on these events yesterday believe that they will stay on the long term. They certainly a plan to withdraw as soon as Russian reinforcement are on sight. This should be a matter of hours.
Ukrainians may also face logistical problem even before Russians reinforcements arrive. Running out of fuel.

Two things. One, probably not hours. Probably days. Russia's reaction is relatively slow, and the area in question is relatively large. And two, the question isn't whether Ukraine will be out of Kursk region. The question is mainly when.

 

[hauritz]

Lots of talk on various sources, youtube and other, talking about advances to Kursk. I really doubt that that UKR has the forces and desire to lunge that deep into RU. Im still wondering what the goal is.

Counterattacking, harassing the enemy, hitting them where they are at there weakest, forcing the enemy to change their plans, I can think of lots of reasons actually. It’s an established tactic really.

No doubt Ukraine got intelligence suggesting the border was only lightly guarded. An opportunity presented itself to inflict some damage behind enemy lines with minimal casualties and no doubt give Putin a few restless nights.

Second time in a year troops easily overcame a Russian defences and pushed towards Moscow.

 

[vikingatespam]

A pretty bad strike for the Russians. Really bad.

Truly a textbook case of poor road discipline 2.5 years into the war.

Anyway, what the goal is I have no idea. I think if they withdraw now with relatively little losses, this should be regarded to as a successful mission

Cross the border, tear up shit, work over the RU reinforcements, and head back home. I cant see any reason to stay if RU defenses are firming up.

 

[vikingatespam]

More on the destruction of the truck column:

See 4:06. Cluster munitions were used.

 

[Fredled]

Map of from the video above. Note that this is the map from yesterday (friday 9/8/2024)