The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Jul 26, 2024

Fredled said:
Yes, that was happened. But you see, at the end of the day, they voted the package.

Sure, months late, with no predictability for Ukraine. No damage done obviously.

I know. But it's still nuch cheaper than ordering new material for Ukraine.
My point was that the US is able to send much more equipment and missiles that they have been doing without too much spending.

I guess "too much" depends on what you plan to do in the future. In principle the US might be trying to hang on to some of their stockpiles for the future. I agree that the US could supply much more than what they have been.

I don't agree. Western aid, current or past, was a game changer in the sens that it allowed Ukraine to resist against its complete disparition.
It's just that it wasn;t enough to repel the Russian back to the 1991 borders. Everybody says that it's not realistic. It becomes realistic when you get the numbers.
The 2023 counter offensive failed because of lack of air power. Now with the F16's, they will have something to work with. The US has just promised 50 F16's, ...finally. Some F16's are theoretically already in Ukraine. But it will take until 2025 for the full force to be operational. We won;t see a sudden change in the game. It will grow gradually in favour of the Ukrainians.
At first the main task will be to intercept incoming cruise missiles and prevent the Russian air force to come close. They will protect the bases, the front line and the infrastructures.
In a second stage, they will bomb Russian lines. Then it will start to be interesting.

Your scenario seems to assume that the F-16s will get Ukraine at least air superiority if not outright air dominance. This seems unlikely. Consider the effort the US had to put into rolling back Iraqi IADS during the two Gulf Wars. Russia's IADS is considerably more sophisticated, and Ukraine has far fewer resources, including certain categories of kit that are completely absent. So the chances that they can accomplish a similar effect are extremely low. At this point we don't even know what configuration they will come in.

The second part you're ignoring is... Ukraine is already bombing Russian lines with gliding bombs from their current inventory. I suspect that in addition to Russian combat jets and air defenses, availability of munitions is a major limiting factor for Ukraine's ability to drop ordinance on Russian forces. So the question becomes, do the F-16s come with a massive boost in overall aid levels to provide Ukraine with the munitions they need?

Lastly, consider Russia. Russia has more missiles and UAVs to throw at striking long range targets. Russia has also been dropping over 1000 gliding bombs per month for many months (the numbers now are closer to 3k per month). Yet the pace of Russian advance has been glacial. in the grand scheme of things. And this is despite now an advantage in manpower, artillery, and armor. Remember Ukraine's offensive in the summer 2023. It didn't fail due to lack of air power exclusively. It failed because the advances were extremely slow and extremely costly. It's possible a hefty portion of F-16s could have chased Russian Ka-52s back from the front lines, but even that's not obvious. The offensive failed because the nature of the fighting makes it very hard to gain ground and concentrate troops. Even if the arrival of F-16s shifts the fighting to a Ukrainian offensive (and I think it's likely they will at least attempt it) I don't believe we're going to see any rapid gains. Supporting a large F-16 fleet in Ukraine will be more and more expensive as they keep arriving. Dealing with Russian jets and IADS will be a substantial challenge, and Ukraine will lose jets in the sky, hiding from Russian strikes becomes harder the more jets you have, so Ukraine will lose jets on the ground. And the greatest fight jet in the world can't help you if your armored columns get stuck on a minefield, or disassembled by drones. The arrival of F-16s won't reverse the pattern of who can drop more ordinance on the other side. That will still be Russia. So why would it reverse the course of the war?

I don;t think we should talk about physical inability. It's rather the choice not to deplete too much one's own stocks for the sake of aiding Ukraine. If we consider the European countries bordering Russia, they are actually increasing their forces rather than depleting them. There is a double effort going on.

You pointed out that German stocks are running low and cited Slovakia as an example (I would also consider Poland who donated vast amounts of Soviet-era kit but are now running low in many categories). I agree that there is a double effort, but the double effort is being fed in large part by the same industrial base and from the same existing stockpiles. The only real example where that works in Ukraine's favor is where the Poles (and now Romanians) are purchasing RoK kit, which theoretically opens up their own old kit to donation.

seaspear · Jul 26, 2024

The glide bombs being released by Russian forces seem to be using up old Soviet era bombs with newly designed wing kits ,these though are not immune as this article shows and if Ukraine receives these aircraft it may assist against the glide bombs with its range of sixty to seventy kilometres certainly Russian aircraft carrying such heavy ordinance could in theory be targeted by air to air missiles from Ukrainian aircraft still inside their own front lines

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/06/how-ukraine-can-defeat-russian-glide-bombs.html

Feanor · Jul 26, 2024

seaspear said:
The glide bombs being released by Russian forces seem to be using up old Soviet era bombs with newly designed wing kits ,these though are not immune as this article shows and if Ukraine receives these aircraft it may assist against the glide bombs with its range of sixty to seventy kilometres certainly Russian aircraft carrying such heavy ordinance could in theory be targeted by air to air missiles from Ukrainian aircraft still inside their own front lines

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/06/how-ukraine-can-defeat-russian-glide-bombs.html

Absolutely and the EW part is already happening. We've had some recent strikes (will be in the next update) where likely due to Ukrainian EW, the glide bombs are missing their targets hard.

seaspear · Jul 26, 2024

I am posting this as an interesting article on the Nazi economy pre second war and by 1939 believed unsustainable ,many outsiders were impressed by the economic performance but it was a sham ,I don't believe Russia is approaching this but Russia's wartime economy has its own problems

https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1188&context=ghj

Larry_L · Jul 28, 2024

Ukraine is striking long range every chance they get. They have attacked another roll on, roll off ferry, and several airbases. One of the bases was at a distance of over 1000 miles. Fighter bomber confirms 3 airbases attacked, also stating that air defense operated "normally"? . He also mentions a Su-34 technical crash and speaks cryptically about western surveillance aircraft, and efforts to keep them farther from key areas. Ukraine claims a bomber was damaged in their longest strike with no confirmation. I have not provided translation for these. Let me know if this is a problem for you. It is now built in to the firefox browser, and works most of the time for me.

Fighterbomber

I'm a fighter. Fighter-bomber. Russian fighter-bomber. Хроники истребителя-бомбардировщика в отставке. Связь: @fbsha ✉ [email protected]

t.me

Ukrainian Military Escalates Long-Range Strikes, Disables Key Russian Vessel

Ukrainian forces have disabled the Russian RO-RO ferry Slavyanin in Port Kavkaz, critical for transporting fuel between Russia and Crimea. This follows the earlier damage to two other RO-RO ferries, severely impacting Russia's logistics.

nationalinterest.org

x.com

Ukrainian Drones May Have Flown A Record 1,100 Miles To Target Russian Bombers At Their Northern Base

Olenya air base supports Tupolev Tu-22M3 bombers, which routinely strike Ukrainian cities.

www.forbes.com

Oil depot in Russia's Kursk region on fire after Ukrainian drone attack, governor says

Three tanks at an oil storage depot in Russia's Kursk region caught fire as a result of a Ukraine-launched drone attack, acting regional governor Alexei Smirnov said on Sunday.No one was injured in the attack, and a fire at one of the tanks was quickly

news.cgtn.com

An interesting view of a Russian UAV control center. These are prime targets for both sides, an illustrate the need for tight operational security.

x.com

Russia is talking about their Cobra system which allegedly can pinpoint UAV control centers, and target them.

Russia, il sistema Cobra per vincere la guerra dei droni: così Mosca vuole intercettare i "registi" di Kiev

Nella lunga guerra difensiva ucraina contro la Russia un ruolo cruciale lo hanno svolto i droni, capaci di mettere in crisi la flotta di Mosca nel Mar Nero e di rappresentare una minaccia anche oltre...

www.ilmessaggero.it

seaspear · Jul 29, 2024

This article tries to provide a balanced approach to Ukrainian and Russian material losses with graphs over the war sing comparisons even to showing both sides over claim opponent losses and extent an interesting read for people here trying to make sense of the drip feed of singular claims often portrayed

Feanor · Jul 29, 2024

Update.

Kharkov front.

Some Ukrainian counter-attacks regained a few buildings inside Volchansk. Meanwhile in Glubokoe after many Ukrainian attacks that penetrated deep into the village, the entire village is now apparently under Russian control. Overall the situation remains murky.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 880: Situation on northern front: - From Kharkov axis during the last seven days Russian Army managed to recapture the northern warehouses of Hlyboke securing again the control over the locality. - From Chuhuiv axis new correction was made, showing that the reservoir...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 884: Situation on northern front: From Chuhuiv axis the battle for Vovchansk continue: During the last four days Ukrainian Army managed to recapture Stepova streets at the northeastern part of the town & some positions west of Soborna street & adjacent to the central...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Враг прорвался в центр Глубокого, но был полностью разгромлен ▪️В занятом в ходе наступления группировки войск "Север" приграничье Харьковской области продолжаются ожесточённые бои не только за Волчанск, но и в районе Глубокого, где российские войска отражают контратаки врага. ▪️2 дня назад...

t.me

Another Russian land mine toss, this one in Volchansk.

vk.com

Russia airstrikes around Glubokoe and Volchansk.

Colonelcassad

Новый день и новая порция крылатых ФАБов по местам скопления ВСУ на подступах к Глубокому. Для большинства украинских солдат в районе авиаудара новый день уже не наступит никогда... @warriorofnorth

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Кадры с прилетом сразу 4-х авиабомб с УМПК по позиции ВСУ в Волчанске. Военный Осведомитель

vk.com

Ukrainian T-64BV with mine trawl and Bergenpanzer ARV destroyed, Kharkov region.

Dambiev

Уничтоженный в Харьковской области украинский танк Т-64БВ с колейным минным тралом КМТ-6 и экранами.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная немецкая БРЭМ Bergepanzer 2 на шасси танка Leopard 1 в Харьковской области. Всего Германия передала 19 БРЭМ этого типа. @voenacher

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Остов уничтоженной немецкой БРЭМ «Bergerpanzer 2» ВСУ на Харьковском направлении. В общем зачёте ВСУ получили 17 единиц данной техники. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia hit airspace control radars in the Kharkov airport. Note these are static systems that have been active during this entire war.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ «Искандеры» нанесли точный ракетный удар по двум воинским эшелонам ВСУ В результате удара уничтожено до 240 боевиков и более 60 единиц техники подразделений 41-й механизированной бригады ВСУ в районе населенного пункта Барвенково в Харьковской области, сообщает Минобороны. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

ВС России поразили два воинских эшелона ВСУ в Харьковской области ударами ракет ОТРК «Искандер-М»

ВС России нанесли очередной точечный ракетный удар по выявленным целям на подконтрольной Киеву территории Украины. На этот раз наши результативно отработали по железнодорожным эшелонам ВСУ в Харьковской области. Об этом сообщает российское Минобороны. Согласно имеющимся данным, российская разведка

topwar.ru

Военный Осведомитель

Результат удара ОТРК "Искандер" по эшелону на ж/д станции Барвенково в Харьковской области. На земле остались лежать остатки еще не убранного сгоревшего БК и остовы техники. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Aerial footage of the ruins of Volchansk.

Colonelcassad

Прилеты ФАБов и последствия боев за центр Волчанска. Продолжающиеся с мая бои постепенно стирают центральную часть города.

t.me

A Russian M-46 from battle group north.

Военный Осведомитель

Старый конь борозды не испортит. Боевая работа расчёта 130-мм пушки М-46 группировки войск «Север». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukraine shelled Shebekino, hitting a residential building, wounding 7 civilians.

Colonelcassad

Во время обстрела Шебекино в Белгородской области ранения получили 7 гражданских лиц, есть попадание в жилую многоэтажку.

t.me

Belgorod region, Ukraine allegedly killed a civilian driver in a lone vehicle with an FPV drone strike.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️☦️Враг убил водителя, атаковав машину в Белгородской области... ▪️В реанимации областной больницы умер мужчина, раненый вчера при атаке дрона по легковому автомобилю у села Маломихайловка на участке трассы Шебекино — Волоконовка. ▪️«Врачи до последнего боролись за его жизнь, оказывая всю...

t.me

A city bus in Belgorod with anti-drone netting.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

В Белгородской области антидроновые решетки стали устанавливать на общественный транспорт в связи с участившимися ударами FPV-дронов противника по случайным гражданским автомобилям на дорогах и в населенных пунктах. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Oskol front.

Russian forces have taken Peschanoe and are expanding their area of control around it north and west. This salient is developing, and will likely cut Ukraine's lines on the left shore of the Oskol in half.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 884: Situation on northeastern front: Russian Army continue securing the northern heights of Pishchane. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.56279790143671%2C37.834501766012316&z=12 ]

t.me

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

На Купянском направлении дроном-камикадзе «Ланцет» была вынесена очередная РЛС AN/TPQ-50 ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Seversk salient.

Russian forces have gained a trench line north of Razdolovka and have taken Ivano-Dar'yevka west of Spornoe.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 886: Situation on eastern front: During the last days Russian Army managed to capture the trench systems north of Rozdolivka thus increasing the buffer zone around this locality. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 875: Situation on eastern front: During the last week Russian Army made significant advances southwest of Siversk leading to the capture of the village of Ivano-Darivka & a series of trench system south of it. Map: [...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️123 бригада прорвалась почти на 3 км и подняла флаг России в центре Ивано-Дарьевки, наступая к Северску ▪️На Северском направлении российские подразделения неожиданно прорвали оборону врага и стремительным рывком зашли в Ивано-Дарьевку, освободив посёлок. ▪️На видео гвардейцы 123 бригады...

t.me

Chasov Yar.

Russian forces have crossed the canal in a wide front, both north and south of the old bridge. The first row of houses has been taken by Russian forces. Note the neighborhoods immediately west of the canal are all private houses, 1-2 stories. They don't make for great strong points. It's likely Russia's next problem will be the refuse mounds and the factory at the center of town.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженный Т-72АВ всу рядом с н.п. Торецк(Нью Йорк). @divannyevoini

t.me

Ukrainian MANPADS downed a Russian Su-25 near Toretsk (other source claims Pokrovskoe axis), the pilot reportedly survived and was evacuated.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Кадры сбития российского штурмовика Су-25 на Покровском направлении из ПЗРК 110-й мехбригадой ВСУ. Пуск был осуществлен в максимально выгодной конфигурации для противника - с небольшого расстояния вдогон по уже снизившемуся штурмовику. Летчик успешно катапультировался и был эвакуирован в тыл...

t.me

Russian drone drops munitions on Ukrainian infantry dismounting from a vehicle.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Бои у Нью-Йорка: наши бойцы атакуют высаживающуюся из бронетехники США пехоту ▪️На Торецком направлении бойцы группировки войск "Центр" срывают ротацию ВСУ, атакуя боевиков точным огнём ударных дронов и обеспечивая продвижение наших штурмовых групп. Разведчики бьют врага дронами от...

t.me

Покровское направление: освобождение большей части Новоселовки Первой и усугубление кризиса обороны ВСУ обстановка по состоянию на 16:00 28 июля 2024 года Кризис обороны ВСУ на Покровском направлении продолжает усугубляться: за минувшие дни российские войска значительно продвинулись как на...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/07/28/20240728152708-0d7e2df5.jpg

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Российские войска освободили населенные пункты Прогресс и Евгеновка в ДНР — Минобороны Военное ведомство в сводке подтвердило освобождение силами группировки "Центр" двух населенных пунктов на Покровском направлении, о которых ранее писали военные ресурсы. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ «Русские давят, теряем позиции»: «️тважные» приближаются и начинают атаковать сразу 6 новых посёлков на пути к Покровску ▪️На Авдеевско-Покровском направлении подразделения группировки войск "Центр" развивают успех за Очеретино, наступая начинают атаковать сразу ряд населенников: Ивановку...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 882: Situation on Ocheretyne front: Russian Army entered in the locality of Vovche & captured most of it. In addition, troops advanced 2 km west of Prohres reaching the southern outskirts of Ivanivka. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue increasing the area around...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Бойцы 114-й мотострелковой бригады ВС РФ водрузили свое знамя над селом Новосёловка Первая, расположенным южнее поселкам Прогресс, где недавно оформилось окружение засидевшихся на высоте украинских солдат. Также сообщается о начале штурмовых действий на территории соседнего села Волчье и...

t.me

Russia has gained another pair of tree-lines near Nevel'skoe and have gained some ground on both sides of the Karlovka reservoire.

vk.com

Russian soldiers riding on top of a vehicle attempt to shoot down an FPV drone with a shotgun but fail.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian VT-40 drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP, near the Karlovskiy reservoire.

Colonelcassad

Оператор fpv дрона "ВТ-40" наносит поражение БМП ВСУ в районе Карловского водохранилища

t.me

Ukrainian MaxxPro somewhere near Avdeevka first flipped and then finished off with multiple drone strikes.

vk.com

Krasnogorovka-Mar'inka area.

Russia has taken almost all of Krasnogorovka. The northern outskirts, effectivel subrubs, are under Ukrainian control, and a small Ukrainian counter-attack has re-entered the town from the south-west (for the second time) briefly but were pushed back out. It will be interesting to see if Russia tries to take the ground between Pervomayskoe and Krasnogorovka. There are large open fields there, all the way up to the village of Nevel'skoe, all under Ukrainian control.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 886: Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian army took control over the last section of the core part of Krasnogorivka & began entering in the northern part of the town. In addition, Ukrainian Army advance south of the town was reversed. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 884: Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army continue advancing in Krasnogorivka reaching the last streets of the core part of the town. On the other hand, Ukrainian Army reentered in the town from the south following another counterattack. Map: [...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Донецкое направление: взятие большей части городской застройки Красногоровки обстановка по состоянию на 19:00 27 июля 2024 года Оборона украинских формирований в Красногоровке продолжает стремительно сыпаться под натиском российских войск. На текущий момент большая часть города находится...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/07/27/20240727183919-17cd024a.jpg

Russian forces have also gained ground in Maksimil'yanovka and a tree-line south of Mar'inka. Advances in this area are exposed from the flanks, and it's likely the massive slow-down here is related to the slow going in Krasnogorovka, and south of Pobeda.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Армия России штурмует Максимильяновку, прорвавшись на 3 км и зайдя в центр ▪️На Кураховском направлении после освобождения Марьинки и Георгиевки бойцы ЮВО штурмуют Максимильяновку. ▪️ВСУ опубликовали кадры огня в центральной и восточной частях Максимильяновки, тем самым признав успешный прорыв...

t.me

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 885: Situation southwest of Donetk: Another axis was opened by Russian Army on order to reach T-05-24 road. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.82625199534633%2C37.405250280279425&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 884: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army continue advancing towards T-05-24 road from the second axis. Meanwhile, Russian forces made new advances at the southern outskirts of Kostyantynivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 883: Situation southwest of Donetsk: The battle for Kostyantynivka began after Russian Army entered in the first houses of the locality from the southeastern side. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 879: Situation southwest of Donetsk: Russian Army continue the advance towards Vodyane made new advances west of Solodke. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.78978977549748%2C37.385168327919&z=13 ]

t.me

Russian artillery hitting Konstantinovka.

‼️ Уничтожение пункта базирования боевиков ВСУ в н.п. Великая Новоселка на стыке Запорожья и ДНР ▪️По разведанному пункту временной дислокации боевиков 58 мехбригады ВСУ был нанесён удар управляемой планирующей авиационной бомбой УПАБ-1500. ▪️ПВД и размещавшиеся в нем боевики ВСУ уничтожены...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Фронтовой авиацией группировки "Восток" уничтожен командный пункт противника в Великой Новосёлке Удар нанесен управляемым планирующим авиационным боеприпасом (УПАБ), предназначенным для поражения хорошо защищенных объектов, в том числе заглубленных. Именно поэтому визуально взрыв не кажется...

t.me

A look at the Russian T-80BVM turtle-tank that was involved in fighting around Urozhaynoe.

Военный Осведомитель

Т-80БВМ «Родной» 40-й бригады морской пехоты Тихоокеанского флота группировки войск «Восток» обеспечил проход для штурмовиков в посёлке Урожайное на Южно-Донецком направлении. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian continues to bite off pieces of the Rabotino salient.

‼️‍☠️«Валькирия» уничтожают пункты дислокации и огневые точки ВСУ на Запорожском фронте ▪️Операторы специального подразделения 4 военной базы ВС РФ "Валькирия" выследили позиции ВСУ в районе Каменского. После обнаружения цель сожжена ударным дроном. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️«Валькирия» уничтожает пехоту и огневые точки ВСУ на Запорожском фронте ▪️Операторы специального подразделения 4 военной базы ВС РФ "Валькирия" выслеживают позиции с огневыми точками, боевиков и вооружение ВСУ в районе Каменского. После обнаружения цели уничтожаются ударными дронами...

t.me

Feanor · Jul 29, 2024

Dnepr front.

There are indications that Russia is making an effort to capture the Dnepr islands, as Ukraine is short of troops here.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 878: Situation on Kherson front: During the last two weeks Russian Army began new operations to secure the islands of the Dnieper river following the loss of Krynky by Ukrainian Army. This operation is possible due to the reduction of Ukrainian resources on the other...

t.me

Russia allegedly hit an M270 MLRS. It's hard to be sure, but it looks like the case.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

«Искандер-М» сжёг американскую ракетную установку М270А1 MLRS ▪️Ракетный удар нанесён по позиции американской РСЗО М270А1 MLRS в районе н.п. Новотроицкое. ▪️В результате ракетного удара уничтожена универсальная пусковая установка MLRS, машина сопровождения и до 15 боевиков ВСУ. На кадрах видна...

t.me

Russia hits an alleged Ukrainian staging area with a Kh-38 in the Burgunka village, Kherson region. Notable is that 3 Russian UAVs were watching the strike from different angles.

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Точные прилеты ФАБ-500М62 с УМПК по украинским ангарам в приграничном Белополье Сумской области. Видео: @control_sigma Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia hit the Ukrainian port at Izmail. Reportedly one Shahed entered Romania and exploded there.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Взрыв в Румынии и под Одессой: массированная атака роя дронов по целям врага Атакованы объекты врага в портовом городе Измаил в Одесской области, прогремели около 10 взрывов. СМИ пишут, что российский БпЛА-камидзе "Герань" залетел в Румынию и взорвался там. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

In Nikolaev region Russia hit the Voznesenskaya airfield, fuel storage there burns.

Colonelcassad

Продолжающийся пожар на аэродроме в Вознесенске (Николаевская область). Судя по всему продолжают гореть емкости с горючим после прилета российских ракет.

t.me

Russia hits a P-18 radar in Dnepropetrovskaya region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian bomb strike on Krasniy Liman. This area has generally been an unsuccessful one for Russia. Despite many attempts, Russia has not managed to gain Terny or Torskoe.

Colonelcassad

В Красном Лимане после прилетов ФАБ-250 и ОДАБ-1500 горит центр юридических консультаций. 48.977799, 37.826189 В здании находились подразделения "азова" из 12-й бригады нацгвардии. @ukrainian_guide

t.me

Russian Iskander strike on alleged Ukrainian equipment storage in Kramatorsk. Russia claims many destroyed vehicles and kit, but there is no evidence.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Кадры мощного удара "Искандер-М" по складу вооружений 56-й бригады ВСУ в Краматорске ▪️Российские силы нанесли ракетный удар по промзоне, уничтожив пусковую установку РСЗО HIMARS, 5 «Градов», 5 танков и до 10 бронемашин. ▪️Кадры демонстрируют разрушительное действие высокоточных ракет...

t.me

Another Kh-38ML bridge strike, location unknown.

Dambiev

Очередная переправа противника встретилась с очередной Х-38МЛ, наводимой "Орланом-30". Видео: @bortzhyrnal Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia has started using a new domestic drone called a Gerber, which is apparently a Shahed alternative.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Стало известно, что за неизвестный дрон атаковал Киев: он может формировать рой ▪️Армия России начала применять беспилотник «Гербера» разработки ОКБ им. Н. Ф. Гастелло. ▪️БпЛА может применяться в ударном варианте - дрон-камикадзе, вести радиоэлектронную разведку и в отвлекать ПВО, выступая...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

There are unconfirmed reports of Russia rebasing aircraft away from the Ukrainian border in anticipation of Ukrainian strikes on airfields.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian Vampire SAM destroying a Shahed drone.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine hit a fuel storage facility near Kursk.

Военный Осведомитель

Прошедшей ночью украинские дроны атаковали нефтебазу под Курском, в результате загорелом три резервуара с топливом. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukraine hit an oil refinery in Tuapse.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine apparently converted a light plane into a UAV and loaded it with C-4. It crashed inside Russia.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia apparently downed 3 ATACMS missiles aimed at Lugansk.

Colonelcassad

Утренний обстрел Луганска ракетами ATACMS. Заявлено 3 сбитых ракеты. По данным администрации Луганска пострадавших нет.

t.me

Footage of Olenya airbase shows no sign of a damaged Tu-22, despite earlier claims.

Военный Осведомитель

Спутниковые снимки авиабазы Оленья после попытки удара украинских беспилотников, устроенной на днях. Как можно заметить, никаких визуальных подтверждений поражения Ту-22М3 или хотя бы следов от долетевшего дрона в окрестностях авиабазы нет, несмотря на распространяемые ГУР Украины истории...

t.me

Feanor · Jul 29, 2024

Interesting bits.

Ukrainian FPV drone first hits a van of some sort on a Russian road. A second drone then double-taps, hitting the fire truck that shows up to put it out. Intentionally targeting civilian firefighters is definitely a war crime.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг прицельно атакует спасателей и мирных жителей: ВСУ публикуют кадры охоты на сотрудников МЧС России ▪️Третий год мишенью врага становятся не только мирные жители, но и спасатели, приходящие им на помощь. На видео момент "взрывоопасной гонки" за пожарной машиной. ▪️После удара...

t.me

A Russian BMP-3 burns. What makes this interesting is that this is the second time we see a BMP-3 with ERA destroyed. While it's clearly not a common loadout, some quantity seems to be making it to the front. Personally I'm curious if the ERA replaces the up-armor kits used on the BMP-3M, or are mounted over it.

Военный Осведомитель

Противник опубликовал фото уничтоженной российской БМП-3 с установленными модулями динамической защиты 4С24 (еще называемой ДЗ "Кактус"). Напомним, что весной на фронте засветилась первая БМП-3 с ДЗ, что позволило сделать осторожные оптимистические выводы о долгожданном (не прошло всего-то и...

t.me

Another destroyed 2S22 Bogdana, this one also hiding in trees, but clearly a different area from above. Note after it hides, someone comes out and tries to hide the tire tracks, which of course doesn't help when someone was watching from the start.

Военный Осведомитель

На кадрах уничтожения контрбатарейным огнем украинской 155-мм колесной САУ "Богдана" cледует отметить один интересный нюанс. После покидания огневой позиции и ухода гаубицы в укрытие один из солдат противника вышел на дорогу, по которой "Богада" заезжала в посадку, и буквально стал заметать...

t.me

8 UMPK gliding bombs target a single tree line, and all miss, allegedly due to Ukrainian EW.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A downed Ukrainian SB-600 somewhere in the war. These munitions resurfacing now suggest a new batch.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Обломки сбитого редкого американского дрона-камикадзе Switchblade 600 где-то на фронте. Напомним, что Switchblade 600 представляет собой боевую часть от ракеты ПТРК FGM-148 Javelin, запускаемую из похожего на миномет транспортно-пускового контейнера и управляемую в полете оператором на...

t.me

A destroyed APR-40, a Romanian Grad clone, no doubt Ukrainian.

bmpd

Сгоревший где-то на Украине еще в мае экзотический румынский клон "Града" - РСЗО APR-40

t.me

A destroyed Ukrainian Rosomak APC. These remain relatively rare, and are fairly new vehicles.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Dambiev

Уничтоженный в Донецкой Народной Республике украинский бронетранспортер KTO Rosomak польского производства.

t.me

A rare Rak 120mm SP Mortar gets hit by a Lancet strike. This is likely Ukraine's 44th Mech.

Colonelcassad

"Ланцет" сжег редкий польский самоходный миномет Польский 120-мм миномет М120 Rak на базе колесной БМП Rosomak довольно редко встречается в зоне СВО. Польша поставила их Украине примерно 24 штуки, причем обошлись они свыше 3 миллионов долларов за штуку. Первую такую машину сожгли еще в марте...

t.me

Another rarity, a Dingo armored car destroyed, Ukrainian.

Dambiev

Уничтоженный в зоне проведения СВО украинский бронеавтомобиль ATF Dingo 2 немецкого производства.

t.me

A Russian fire truck damaged allegedly by a Ukrainian double-tap, near Yasinovataya.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russian BM-21 Grad pretending to be a normal army truck. Note it's mislabeled as a Tornado-G, but this is clearly not true. It's a 2B26 Grad on a Kamaz chassis.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

vk.com

DPRK M-46 130mm shells in Russian service. Reactivating these howitzers was slow until very recently. Now they're steadily becoming more common.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian soldiers testing a 2A73 Grom cannon on a towed chassis. This gun is normally used in a BMP-1 and is essentially an infantry field gun. Their value in this form is questionable.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Российские военнослужащие на полигоне ведут огонь из 73-мм пушек 2A28, снятых с БМП-1. Такой вот он "сирийский опыт".

t.me

A Ukrainian MiG-29 carrying a small bundle of SDBs.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

МиГ-29 ВС ВСУ, вооруженный полным боекомплектом планирующих бомб GBU-39 SDB. Каждый модифицированный 29-й может нести до 8 SDB на паре подвесок BRU-61.

t.me

Ukraine's 111th TerDef Bde using a MAN KAT 8X8 carrying a KS-19 AAA, it's likely meant as artillery in place of howitzers.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A rare Ukrainian Ataman armored car, using a GAZ-66 chassis and a Ukrainian armor package.

Военный Осведомитель

Архивное фото редкого украинского бронеавтомобиля «Атаман», представляющего собой ГАЗ-66 с установленной системой быстрого монтирования броневых модулей под названием «Овод». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Apparently Ukraine's 57th Mech Bde now has Bradleys too, likely reflecting new US deliveries.

bmpd

Украинское официальное видео, из которого следует, что американские боевые машины пехоты М2А2 Bradley получила 57-я отдельная мотопехотная (механизированная) бригада ВСУ (судя по видимым шевронам). Ранее БМП Bradley в ВСУ была оснащена только ныне широко известная 47-я отдельная механизированная...

t.me

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Ручные противотанковые гранаты РПГ-6 разработки 1943 года, переданные из Болгарии, засветились на вооружении украинских солдат. Граната была разработана еще после Курской битвы для противодействия новым более бронированным немецким танкам, а после ВОВ выпускалась в том числе и на территории...

t.me

Reportedly Ukraine is forming female anti-drone teams for service in the rear. It's unclear if the intent is to free up the males for front line service or if this is an attempt to beef up anti-drone efforts.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The Netherlands have reportedly funded the repair and delivery of 14 Leo-2A4 tanks for Ukraine. I'm not sure where they're being sourced from. Germany and Denmark jointly handed over 8 more Leo-1s. Spain is preparing another Hawk SAM.

Военный Осведомитель

Министр обороны Нидерландов Рубен Брекельманс заявил, что до конца лета Украине будут переданы 14 отремонтированных танков Leopard 2A4. Ещё весной 2023 года Нидерланды и Дания объявила о приобретении 14 танков (на сумму $186 млн), их ремонта специалистами компании Rheinmetall и последующей...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Германия с Данией в рамках совместного проекта передали ВСУ еще 8 танков Leopard 1A5, сообщается на сайте правительства ФРГ. Такде Испания сообщила, что передаст Украине ещё один средней дальности ЗРК MIM-23 Hawk. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

An ugly pattern has developed inside Ukraine. I haven't really mentioned it so far because I wasn't sure if this was a major trend or isolated incidents but at this point it's undeniable. There are widespread burnings of military cars and buses belong to the military commissariat. This is no doubt a reflection of the behavior of these organizations. I'm posting just a few, but there are very many videos.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Военные машины продолжают массово пылать на Украине ▪️"Конец ул. Закревского. в 3 ночи поджог авто военных"; "Только что в Киеве на Троещине подожгли военный пикап", - пишут киевские каналы. ➖потом ещё одну машину подожгли на Закревского 103. ▪️Сутки назад в Оболонском районе Киева в 19:00...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Автомобили ТЦК горят по всей Украине: свежие кадры из разных городов ▪️На первом видео горит авто в Харькове, на втором - в Хмельницком, третьем - в Днепре и четвертом - в Киеве. ▪️Количество машин уменьшается, а число желающих их поджечь продолжает расти. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Партизаны массово жгут машины на Украине каждую ночь ▪️Движение "Сумщина против" набирает небывалые обороты по всей Украине. ▪️"Всё больше наших последователей из разных городов активно участвуют в борьбе за своё будущее. Иногда мы не сразу выкладываем результаты нашей акции #КРИКНАРОДА...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Накануне ночью в Киеве жители продолжили жечь автотранспорт людоловов.

t.me

There are reports of another wave of military medical center being built in Russia.

Минобороны развернет множество военно-медицинских объектов в разных городах

Руководство РФ приняло решение развернуть большое количество военно-медицинских объектов в разных городах, работы на особом контроле Минобороны, сообщили в... РИА Новости, 25.07.2024

ria.ru

Feanor · Jul 30, 2024

A lot of people have talked about Russia running out of armored vehicles, and this has been an ongoing pattern of people counting "boxes" left at storage bases, and trying to project trajectories of losses. I've always found this a bit questionable. I recall the first few months of the war when "Russia will run out of missiles" was the catch phrase, and yet here we are in 2024... the pattern repeated itself with discussions of artillery shells. And there we see increases of domestic output, importation of shells from partners like North Korea and Iran, and lastly of course the importation of entire artillery shell production lines from, likely, China. For armored vehicles I believe we're watching a similar pattern play itself out. Russia started by pulling as much Soviet kit as they could. They also boosted domestic production. The next stage will be imported vehicles from the DPRK, and possibly other sources. Lastly we will probably see importation of entire production lines (China produces BMP-1s domestically for a long time, and I don't believe they still are, does that production line still exist?). For now here's apparently a DPRK SP ATGM carrier, on a modified BTR-80 chassis spotted in Kharkov region. I suspect we will see some imported DPRK and Iranian vehicles in Russian use as this continue, as well as local production of something based on imported production lines.

Colonelcassad

Украинские источники сообщают, что в Харьковской области был впервые замечен северокорейский ПТРК Bulsae-4. Данный комплекс представляет собой пусковую установку с восемью ракетами (предположительно, это могут быть китайские HJ-10 с дальностью до 10 км). Шасси представляет собой...

t.me

Larry_L · Jul 31, 2024

For some time Ukraine has been chipping away at Russian logistics. With it's drones it is trying to reach closer to the source of material, and energy. There also has been a focus on isolating Crimea. Recently they have targeted ferries of the roll on roll off variety, which carry rail traffic. As a backup Russia has been building a new rail line from Rostov-on Don to Mariupol. This line appears to have been completed, and in testing. If complete this line will take some of the traffic that would normally have to go through Crimea. At the same time the last of the Ro-Ro ferries has allegedly been taken out of service. There have been reports that Russia has stopped using the Kerch bridge for military traffic. A video came out on the 23rd of a train, on June 9th carrying tank cars crossing the bridge.

The completion of the new rail line.

russia Completes Construction of Railroad from Rostov-on-Don to Occupied Mariupol | Defense Express

russians start testing railway track from Rostov-on-Don to temporarily occupied Mariupol

en.defence-ua.com

Freight train on the Kerch bridge.

x.com

A report on the May 30 strike on 2 ferries.

Photos of damaged Russian ferries in Kerch appeared

A photo of the missile attack aftermath on two Russian ferries in the temporarily occupied Crimea was published online

mil.in.ua

An excerpt from Donald Hills 29 July report on the war covering much of the Kerch area logistics strikes. the link follows the Quote.

Quote:_ Crimea

In 2018, Russia had four ferries in the Black Sea that could transport trains and rail cars by moving directly from the tracks to the ferry by a method called Roll On, Roll Off (RORO). In May of that year, one of those ferries, Annenkov, collided with a pier at Port Kavkaz but was found to be unharmed. Less than two months later, cargo from a rail car fell onto the deck, creasing the hull and tearing ten holes that caused the engine room to flood. After repairs, it continued in service but in 2020, leaks forced it to be beached at Aliaga on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.

On October 8, 2022, a truck that was carrying explosives planted by Ukraine blew up while on the bridge. On the adjacent railway bridge, a train carrying fuel just happened to be traveling by and the fuel cars burned for hours after the blast. The heat from those fires permanently weakened the rail bridge even after it was repaired. In its weakened state, the bridge regularly supported passenger train traffic but the heavy loads of fuel cars rarely crossed the bridge anymore. Instead, the Russians would move the fuel cars to Port Kavkaz, load them on to the three remaining RORO train ferries and offload them at another port located 4.5 km across the Kerch Strait.

With Russian military vehicle traffic mostly using roads through Zaporizhzhia, and Russian rail traffic mostly using the rail ferries, the military importance of the Kerch bridge was reduced.
On 30 May 2024, the rail ferries Avangard and Conro Trader were both hit by ATACMS and damaged. The oil tanks at Port Kavkaz were also attacked and four tanks burned. Since its ability to transport oil across the Kerch strait was reduced by 66%, the Russians sent a train with oil cars over the Kerch bridge on June 9th. It was the first time they did that since February. The Kerch bridge became a little more important.

This left the Slavyanin as the only rail ferry left in the Black Sea. It was carrying cargo from Bulgaria to Turkey on November 8, 2023, when it collided with another ship, damaging its railing and its ballast tanks, which took on water. On July 23rd, it was hit by a aerial drone and damaged.

There are not published estimates of how long it will take to repair the ferries, but until they are repaired, Russia lost one of its routes to deliver oil to Turkey, and it must deliver oil through Zaporizhzhia, within range of HIMARS/MLRS, or use the Kerch bridge."

The link for the above with illustrative images.

Don's Weekly, 29 July: Part 4

by Donald Hill

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

Feanor · Jul 31, 2024

Larry_L said:
For some time Ukraine has been chipping away at Russian logistics. With it's drones it is trying to reach closer to the source of material, and energy. There also has been a focus on isolating Crimea. Recently they have targeted ferries of the roll on roll off variety, which carry rail traffic. As a backup Russia has been building a new rail line from Rostov-on Don to Mariupol. This line appears to have been completed, and in testing. If complete this line will take some of the traffic that would normally have to go through Crimea. At the same time the last of the Ro-Ro ferries has allegedly been taken out of service. There have been reports that Russia has stopped using the Kerch bridge for military traffic. A video came out on the 23rd of a train, on June 9th carrying tank cars crossing the bridge.

The completion of the new rail line.

russia Completes Construction of Railroad from Rostov-on-Don to Occupied Mariupol | Defense Express

russians start testing railway track from Rostov-on-Don to temporarily occupied Mariupol

en.defence-ua.com

Freight train on the Kerch bridge.

x.com

x.com

A report on the May 30 strike on 2 ferries.

Photos of damaged Russian ferries in Kerch appeared

A photo of the missile attack aftermath on two Russian ferries in the temporarily occupied Crimea was published online

mil.in.ua

An excerpt from Donald Hills 29 July report on the war covering much of the Kerch area logistics strikes. the link follows the Quote.

Quote:_ Crimea

In 2018, Russia had four ferries in the Black Sea that could transport trains and rail cars by moving directly from the tracks to the ferry by a method called Roll On, Roll Off (RORO). In May of that year, one of those ferries, Annenkov, collided with a pier at Port Kavkaz but was found to be unharmed. Less than two months later, cargo from a rail car fell onto the deck, creasing the hull and tearing ten holes that caused the engine room to flood. After repairs, it continued in service but in 2020, leaks forced it to be beached at Aliaga on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.

On October 8, 2022, a truck that was carrying explosives planted by Ukraine blew up while on the bridge. On the adjacent railway bridge, a train carrying fuel just happened to be traveling by and the fuel cars burned for hours after the blast. The heat from those fires permanently weakened the rail bridge even after it was repaired. In its weakened state, the bridge regularly supported passenger train traffic but the heavy loads of fuel cars rarely crossed the bridge anymore. Instead, the Russians would move the fuel cars to Port Kavkaz, load them on to the three remaining RORO train ferries and offload them at another port located 4.5 km across the Kerch Strait.

With Russian military vehicle traffic mostly using roads through Zaporizhzhia, and Russian rail traffic mostly using the rail ferries, the military importance of the Kerch bridge was reduced.
On 30 May 2024, the rail ferries Avangardand Conro Trader were both hit by ATACMS and damaged. The oil tanks at Port Kavkaz were also attacked and four tanks burned. Since its ability to transport oil across the Kerch strait was reduced by 66%, the Russians sent a train with oil cars over the Kerch bridge on June 9th. It was the first time they did that since February. The Kerch bridge became a little more important.

This left the Slavyanin as the only rail ferry left in the Black Sea. It was carrying cargo from Bulgaria to Turkey on November 8, 2023, when it collided with another ship, damaging its railing and its ballast tanks, which took on water. On July 23rd, it was hit by a aerial drone and damaged.

There are not published estimates of how long it will take to repair the ferries, but until they are repaired, Russia lost one of its routes to deliver oil to Turkey, and it must deliver oil through Zaporizhzhia, within range of HIMARS/MLRS, or use the Kerch bridge."

The link for the above with illustrative images.

Don's Weekly, 29 July: Part 4

by Donald Hill

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

The rail line to Mariupol' is stage one of a longer rail line all the way to Crimea, already under construction. They also rebuilt the Mariupol' civilian rail station, and expanded it in anticipation of greater passenger traffic then pre-war, though I suspect this is a tad optimistic. While in principle it's in HIMARS range (and other nasty things) rail lines are very repairable, and striking a moving train requires some really good recon. There have been a few such strikes by Ukraine against Russia, but I don't think we've seen one for a while now. If anything Russia has stepped up strikes on Ukrainian troop trains, although those also remain relatively rare. I think the key here will be redundancy. If Russia can repair the ferries, and use the Crimean bridge, and have an alternate rail line, it will be hard to shut down everything. Add to that the use of trucks for logistics, along that new highway they built along the coast, and the logistics there become relatively safe.

https://iz.ru/1736070/2024-07-31/v-mariupole-otkrylsia-vosstanovlennyi-zheleznodorozhnyi-vokzal

EDIT: When I say "moving" I really should say just "train". I don't think Russia or Ukraine hit trains in motion, rather they hit them when they reached a station. Even so these are uncommon events suggesting that targeting trains is more difficult that it might appear.

KipPotapych · Aug 2, 2024

More and more Ukrainian troops of different ranks, as well as Ukrainian “connected bloggers” are speaking out about Syrsky having to be replaced. Most are basically saying what was said in this thread upon his promotion. Here is one example, the guy probably familiar to most who follow the (pro-)Ukrainian twitter and whatnot.

He is talking about Syrsky’s post on Telegram where the latter claimed that “the enemy, in spite of heavy losses, had little success” and “… during the hostilities tactical positions may change several times during the day… there were no significant changes as of now”.

СИРСЬКИЙ

По всіх напрямках наступу противника тривають бойові дії різної інтенсивності. Подекуди, ціною великих втрат, ворог має незначний успіх. Під час активних бойових дій тактичні позиції військ можуть змінюватись кілька разів протягом доби. Станом на зараз суттєвих змін не відбулось. Силами...

t.me

It has been widely reported that Ukrainians are taking some heavy losses in the Kharkiv direction (without actually much progress), but it seems to be politically important to push the Russians out. This is also confirmed by the same individual in the discussion that followed his post cited above:

In the meantime, there are for now unconfirmed reports, call it rumours, in the Ukrainian segment, that Russians are slowly grinding forward in Vovchansk and are getting closer to taking the high-rise block called Citadel (I have no idea what that neighbourhood is, but my understanding is that it would have a significant negative impact on the Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the river).

Down at Ocheretine direction at the same time, the Russians appear to be moving with about the same steam. I didn’t really understand the significance of the loss of Progres village (town?), but, apparently until recently, this is where the last Ukrainian defense lines were:

Here is the updated map:

The source for both maps is here (Twitter). To add, 3 days ago, the same individual talked about the necessity and inability of containing the (call it) Progres direction, as well as the problems the Ukrainian forces are facing within:

Thread by @J_JHelin on Thread Reader App

@J_JHelin: "Russia is burning Ukrainian troops to exhaustion" The situation around the village of Prohress is deteriorating. Russia is advancing at a rate of up to a kilometre per day. It has advanced 8km in two wee...…

threadreaderapp.com

According to Deepstate’s map, the Russians have now broke through what used to be that last line of defense, as well as some of the newer trenches

(Didn’t realize only 4 images can be attached to a single post; I think I will maybe stick to the external image hosting sites altogether from now on)

Deepstate reported the situation in that direction to be critical and deteriorating:

✙DeepState✙

Ворог окупував Веселе, що східніше Гродівки ⚔️ Ситуація критична та продовжує погіршуватись. Ворог тисне і продовжує досягати тактичних успіхів. За останні дні суттєво збільшилася кількість КАБів, які кацапи скидають на позиції Сил Оборони. Ворог традиційно застосовує мотоциклетні...

t.me

There are clearly issues in other directions as well. Saw some, I’ll call it, unconfirmed rumours in the Ukrainian segment that Russians are also accumulating troops and equipment in various areas of the front, Toretsk and Sinkivka in particular.

Overall, I personally do not see how Ukraine can recover from these recent (and not so recent) developments. Counteroffensive definitely seems to be out of question at the moment. Basically, it looks like everything they have is currently on the frontline (and still losing ground). Even the newly formed reserves, namely the 150 series brigades (one of the links I cited above mentions it as well; there is another source I posted many days ago talks about it as well). Surely, there are the mobilization efforts and some troops still in training, but…

Russia had recently set a new record of 151 gliding bombs dropped per day (as of July 26):

Source is here (Twitter). The same source indicates that shelling has also increased by about 22% from the month of June.

As for the Russian equipment losses (including the link I posted a few days ago). While this is all great and informative, I do not believe it represents the whole picture. The biggest elephant in the room is probably the number of storage facilities that seems to be increasing by the counters (who do an excellent job) constantly (I follow most of them and those that I don’t are regularly cited by those that I do). While the pot has the bottom, I’d say that we simply do not know where that bottom is. Even the British MoD reported (granted, 6 months ago) that the Russians can replace their current battlefield losses and continue the current level of offensive for the foreseeable future.

Then consider what Feanor said a few posts above. Another thing to consider is whether the Ukrainian losses are being replaced in a timely and sufficient manner (I doubt).

The (maybe?) good news for Ukraine is the arrival of F-16s. A whole 6 of them. Another good news is that Putin has doubled the signing “bonus” for volunteers to fight the war. Does this suggest the recruitment issues or simply doubling down to increase recruitment? I don’t know.

More to say, but this is it for the time being. I’ll maybe make another post tomorrow.

Feanor · Aug 2, 2024

KipPotapych said:
Down at Ocheretine direction at the same time, the Russians appear to be moving with about the same steam. I didn’t really understand the significance of the loss of Progres village (town?),

If you look at the map and follow the pattern of the offensive, Russia is pushing mainly along the rail line, the one that runs out of Avdeevka and to Pokrovsk (which at this rate will get renamed back to Krasnoarmeysk). The significance is that the rail berm is a high ground and the rail line itself was laid down along the high ground. The villages are typically in the gullies, as that land was less usable for farming than the larger flat fields on the higher ground. Taking the rail berm section by section gives you the high ground, taking a few fields around the rail berm becomes easier, and as you approach villages you've got the high ground over them as well. That's the significance. Russia is capturing a section of high ground, and then expanding an area of control around it, and then capturing the next section of high ground. This has allowed them to bypass the Volchya river, and many of Ukraine's defenses there, and because of the way the rail line curves southward is actually threatening Ukrainian forces south-east from the Zhelannoe area all the way to the last Ukrainian positions outside of Yasnobrodovka with encirclement.

Fredled · Aug 3, 2024

Feanor said:
The arrival of F-16s won't reverse the pattern of who can drop more ordinance on the other side. That will still be Russia. So why would it reverse the course of the war?

Because it will address one of the biggest problem of the Ukrainian forces. How many soviet era jets does Ukraine still have? Not a lot.
This is a problem as important as with artillery shells. Russians use FABs more and more to compensate from their losses in artillery guns which are being decimated or worn out by intensive use. The FABs are maybe more effective than artillery barrages. The fact is that Ukrainians are forced to retreat because of them.
If F16's are able to down Russian bombers, maybe it will not change the course of war because the numbers will still be not enough, but it will remove some advantages the Russians currently have.

Feanor said:
A lot of people have talked about Russia running out of armoured vehicles, and this has been an ongoing pattern of people counting "boxes" left at storage bases, and trying to project trajectories of losses. I've always found this a bit questionable.

Yes. Counting how many things Russians are using without understanding that Russia is able to increase their production is stupid.
Yet, we are lucky that Russia's war economy is not as effective as in 1940. There are several reasons for that. 1/ The complexity of technology doesn't allow fast increase in production. 2/ The social structure and job complexity, meaning that you can't move millions of workers into the war industry as fast as before. 80 years ago, you could pick anyone and put him or her on an assembly line and they would do they job with little learning. Today, a worker who is not specialised for a specific task is useless. The same is true for machine tools.
________________

Interresting report from Ukrinform today:

Ukrinform said:
Over the past day, the invaders have launched two assaults in the Orikhiv direction and six assaults on the left bank of the Dnipro in the temporarily occupied Kherson region in the Krynky area. Having suffered losses, they retreated to their original positions

Ukrainians had been supposed to have left the left bank a few weeks ago. If this report is true, there could still be some Ukrainian soldiers there. Or that they came back.

Submarine struck again:

Ukrinform said:
The submarine was seriously damaged in a Ukrainian missile attack on September 13, 2023.

It's not clear to me whether it's the same submarine that was hit by a Storm Shadow and deemed irreparable or another one...
Anyway... It seems that Ukrainians waited for the Russians to finish the repair to hit it again.

Feanor · Aug 4, 2024

Update.

Kharkov front.

It appears at some point Ukraine retook positions along the border north-west of Staritsa, but it's unclear exactly when. Russia forces also withdrew from their positions across the Volchya river.

"Солнцепеки" Северян отработали по скоплениям живой силы ВСУ в районе н.п. Старица (Харьковской обл.). За последние недели украинская армия предприняла несколько попыток захватить населенный пункт, но они не увенчались успехом. @razved_dozor

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Удары авиации по украинским позициям в Волчанске и его окрестностям. Видео: @frontbird Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian strikes on crossings across the Volchya continue.

Colonelcassad

Удар по переправе через пруд в районе урочища Дегтярное, откуда ВСУ совершают атаки на позиции бойцов группировки "Север" в н.п. Старица. За последнее время противник существенно нарастил усилия и пытается мелкими группами прорвать оборону Бесстрашных.

t.me

Ukraine continues drone strikes against civilian vehicles and public transportation in Belgorod region, this time hitting some cars and a bus in Shebekino. On the bus several civilians including the driver were reported wounded. Ukraine also hit a residential building in Shebekino, allegedly with a cluster munition MLRS.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 890: Situation on Luhansk front: During the last two weeks Ukrainian Army managed to recapture most of the locality of Makiivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=49.22053076641287%2C37.99130231517342&z=14 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 888: Situation on Luhansk front: Map corrections were made in Serhiivka axis, showing Ukrainian Army in control over more territory that previously showed. This territory was probably under their control since august 2023, when Ukrainian Army managed to stop Russian...

t.me

Russia burns a Ukrainian Humvee in the area of Sin'kovka.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Наши бойцы эпично сожгли американский Hammer, штурмуя Синьковку На Купянском направлении противник неудачно припарковал бронеавтомобиль в поселке и был выявлен нашими разведчиками, после чего уничтожен. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia hit two M113s near Kupyansk, one parked, and one in motion. Results are unclear, and we see active EW causing interference in the second strike.

Colonelcassad

На Купянском направлении подбиты еще два американских БТР M113 Группа «Конторы» из 1-й танковой армии продолжает показывать свою эффективность. @brussinf

t.me

Russia continues to pummel the Oskol crossings.

Военный Осведомитель

Очередной удар ракеты Х-38МЛ по украинской переправе ВСУ через реку Оскол в Харьковской области. Видео: @bortzhyrnal Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

Авиаудар истребителя-бомбардировщика Су-34 ракетой Х-38МЛ по переправе ВСУ через реку Оскол. @bortzhyrnal

t.me

A destroyed Leo-1A5 near Krasniy Liman. This is only the second such tank we've seen destroyed. I'm reasonably confident it's not the same one as last time, based on the location. That one got knocked out in an open field, in the Kupyansk-Oskol area by a near-miss artillery. This doesn't look like that. We know Ukraine has gotten either high double digits or low triple-digits of Leo-1s, and they haven't really been active on the front lines. This allowed us to infer that Ukraine had some reserves. If Leo-1s are being committed to the fight, it means those reserves are being used.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Очередной Leopard сожжён армией России у Лимана Лето 2024, уничтоженный танк Leopard 1A5DK (Leopard 1A5) ВСУ под г. Лиман в ДНР. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Dambiev

Уничтоженный украинский танк Leopard 1A5DK (Leopard 1A5) рядом с н.п. Лиман Донецкой Народной Республики. Июнь 2024 года.

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Появились кадры первого уничтоженного танка Leopard 1A5 @lost_warinua. Он был уничтожен в районе города Лиман в Донецкой области.

t.me

Chasov Yar.

Russia has crossed the channel across a wide front, and there are now reports Russia used under ground pipes to do this, but I have some serious doubts. The neighborhoods immediately across the channel are all small private homes. They're unlikely to have large underground systems around them. If the pipe runs to the factory, Russian forces would be in the center of the town. But they're not. Maybe Russian forces used the pipes that the channel itself goes into, and something got lost in the broken telephone of war reporting. But in that case the pipes wouldn't be the means of crossing, just a spot of cover.

⚔️Штурм Торецка: Армии России остались десятки метров до входа города! ▪️Группировка войск "Центр" развивает успех, прорывая оборону врага и завершая зачистку пригородов Торецка, фактически заняв город-спутник Торецка Железное (Артёмово) и зачищая Кирово (Северное), Южное и Дружбу. ▪️Украинские...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 890: Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army took control over Toretsk Professional Mining Lyceum in Pivnichne & entered in the first dachas at the outskirts of Toretsk city. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 889: Situation on Toretsk front: Russian Army made new advances at the eastern part of Niu-York town. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Army launched counterattack & recaptured some positions at Zarichna street. On the other hand, Russian forces reached the last houses of Zalizne...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 888: Situation on Toretsk front: In Niu York Russian Army continue advancing inside the town taking control over "Bread Plant" & the rest of Petrovsky Novgorod Machine-Building Plant. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue advancing towards Panteleimonivka taking control...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Александро-Калиновское направление: бои на подступах к Торецку и взятие под контроль большей части Артемово обстановка по состоянию на 18:30 3 августа 2024 года Александро-Калиновское направление, где развернулись бои на подступах к Дзержинску, продолжает наряду с Покровским направлением...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/08/03/20240803172911-67288a9a.jpg

Colonelcassad

Продвижение ВС РФ в Артемово врезки: @z_arhiv

t.me

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 890: Situation on Ocheretyne front: Russian Army continue advancing north of Zhelanne & entered in the first houses of Serhiivka from the south. Map: [...

t.me

vk.com

Запорожское направление. Очередной массированный налет дронами - камикадзе группы "Валькирия" на позиции ВСУ в СНТ "Северный" в районе н.п.Каменское @kuzbasswar

Противник публикует найденные обломки дронов "Гербера" в версии мишени для ПВО, найденные после очередного ночного налета на Украину. Судя по комплектующим, дешевые дроны собраны натурально из говна и палок, не имеют ни боевой части ни защиты от помех. Их единственная задача в данном случае -...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️"Измотать ПВО": Украину сегодня ночью и утром могли атаковать уже не "Герани", а новейшие легкие российские дроны "Гербера" ▪️"Есть большая вероятность, что сегодня ночью Украину атаковали не Шахеды, а новые дешевые Герберы. Или атака была комбинированная. Об этом свидетельствуют многие факты...

t.me

We have confirmation from Russian sources of a Russian National Guard Mi-8 lost in a Ukrainian strike near Donetsk. The aircraft was reportedly being used as a CASEVAC.

Рыбарь

Утром пришла новость о потере вертолета Ми-8 Росгвардии под Донецком, позже в Сети появились и снимки места прилета. Изначально ходила информация о поражении его FPV-дроном, однако в действительности он попал под ракетный удар. В результате атаки есть потери убитыми и ранеными. Когда...

t.me

Ukraine struck Kursk, some inbounds were intercepted, and some apparently landed causing a fire. Target is unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг атаковал Курск, в городе сильный пожар ▪️В городе прогремело до 20 взрывов - силы ПВО сбили немало ракет. ▪️"В Курском районе возник пожар на одном из объектов после атаки ВСУ. Нахожусь на месте вместе с представителями силовых структур. Выясняю возможные последствия и причины...

t.me

Ukraine apparently hit a residentialy building in Orel, double-tapping it when the rescue crews arrived, with UAVs. However it's possible that this is not the intended target but rather the result of Russian EW causing problems for the navigation. the damage done was fairly minimal and there were no casualties.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Ночью враг ударил по многоэтажке в Орле ▪️Силами РЭБ и ПВО уничтожено 3 дрона, 2 беспилотника попали в жилой дом в микрорайоне Болховский в деревне Жилина. Пострадавших нет, сообщил губернатор Клычков. . Пожар был ликвидирован. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

К сожалению, 28 июля вблизи приграничного села Мхи Черниговской области погибло несколько спецназовцев из состава Сил специальных операций ЦСН «Сенеж». Тела офицеров оказались захвачены противником. Специалисты ССО с первых дней проводят эффективные рейды в украинском приграничье, подборки с...

t.me

t.me

Ukraine's 56th Motorized Bde shows off a captured BMP-3M, but without the extra armor kit. You can tell it's a BMP-3M by the sight box. It was allegedly captured two years ago near Ugledar.

Военный Осведомитель

Трофейная БМП-3 обтянутая камуфлированной сеткой на вооружении 56-ой отдельной мотопехотной Мариупольской бригады ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine's 82nd Air Assault Bde poses with a Cougar MRAP. We haven't seen these vehicles in Ukraine. If this is their vehicle, it's the third armored troop transport option they've gotten, as they also ride Strykers and Marders.

bmpd

Украинская 82-я отдельная десантно-штурмовая бригада, судя по распространенным фотографиям, получила на вооружение переданные ранее США, но до сих почти не "светившиеся" на Украине бронированные машины Cougar класса MRAP. Личный состав бригады оснащен переданными Германией экзотическими 5,56-мм...

t.me

Ukrainian volunteers manufacturing an F-16 decoy.

bmpd

Изготовление макета-ложной цели истребителя F-16 украинской волонтерской организацией Apate. Ранее Apate уже изготавливала для ВСУ макеты артиллерийских систем

t.me

Ukraine has reportedly received their first 6 F-16s from the Netherlands.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Украина получила от Нидерландов 6 истребителей F-16, - The Times ▪️"Было поставлено 6 истребителей, но Киев заявил союзникам, что ему нужно 300 боевых самолетов, поскольку он борется с интенсивными российскими бомбардировками", - сообщила газета со ссылкой на источник. ▪️Первые истребители...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Фото истребителя F-16, как сообщается, пролетающего над Львовом на западе Украины. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

F-16 fighter jets finally fly in Ukraine in major boost for Kyiv

The much-vaunted arrival of the warplanes will be met by significant fanfare given their potential role in Ukraine’s fight against Russia

www.telegraph.co.uk

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг публикует якобы первые кадры F-16 в небе Украины ▪️Возможно враг проводит кампанию по дезинформации. ▪️Но если кадры и настоящие, то, скорее всего, истребитель снят максимально близко к польской границе. ▪️Ранее сегодня агентство Bloomberg сообщило, что F-16 уже якобы на Украине. ❗️При...

t.me

Protests in Kovel', Rovno region, over Ukrainian mobilization efforts. Again this is more of a sample, incidents like this occur fairly frequently.

Военный Осведомитель

Тем временем в Ковеле Ровенской области местные жители вышли на массовые акции протеста против методов работы военкомов. Как сообщается, спусковым крючком бунта выступило жесткое задержание и избиение на блокпосту двух молодых парней, которым еще не было даже 18 лет. Теперь вышедшие на улицы...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️«Ганьба, ганьба!» - украинский город восстал против моГилизаторов ТЦК ▪️Толпа в Ковеле Волынской области растёт, люди окружили военкомат и требуют отпустить парней, которых военкомы задержали на блокпосту и забрали в ТЦК. ▪️Разгневанных людей становится всё больше. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Reportedly China will ban export of civilian drones that can be used for military purposes. Note I suspect this will be bypassed by Russia and may be aimed at Ukraine specifically, but it remains to be seen.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ ВАЖНО: Китай запретит экспорт гражданских дронов с военным потенциалом ▪️Китай с 1 сентября запретит экспорт всех неконтролируемых гражданских дронов, которые могут быть использованы в военных или террористических целях. Министерство коммерции объявило, что это решение также направлено на...

t.me

Feanor · Aug 4, 2024

Fredled said:
Because it will address one of the biggest problem of the Ukrainian forces. How many soviet era jets does Ukraine still have? Not a lot.
This is a problem as important as with artillery shells. Russians use FABs more and more to compensate from their losses in artillery guns which are being decimated or worn out by intensive use. The FABs are maybe more effective than artillery barrages. The fact is that Ukrainians are forced to retreat because of them.
If F16's are able to down Russian bombers, maybe it will not change the course of war because the numbers will still be not enough, but it will remove some advantages the Russians currently have.

I think we've said all there is to say. Time will tell how much or how little this matters to the overall direction of the war.

Yes. Counting how many things Russians are using without understanding that Russia is able to increase their production is stupid.
Yet, we are lucky that Russia's war economy is not as effective as in 1940. There are several reasons for that. 1/ The complexity of technology doesn't allow fast increase in production. 2/ The social structure and job complexity, meaning that you can't move millions of workers into the war industry as fast as before. 80 years ago, you could pick anyone and put him or her on an assembly line and they would do they job with little learning. Today, a worker who is not specialised for a specific task is useless. The same is true for machine tools.

Russia is also not mobilizing on the scale they did in that war. We're not seeing the kinds of efforts that were made back then. Quite the opposite in much of Russia you can live and pretend there is no war. This is on purpose. I don't believe Putin has complete domestic support for the war.

KipPotapych · Aug 5, 2024

Feanor said:
If you look at the map and follow the pattern of the offensive, Russia is pushing mainly along the rail line, the one that runs out of Avdeevka and to Pokrovsk (which at this rate will get renamed back to Krasnoarmeysk). The significance is that the rail berm is a high ground and the rail line itself was laid down along the high ground. The villages are typically in the gullies, as that land was less usable for farming than the larger flat fields on the higher ground. Taking the rail berm section by section gives you the high ground, taking a few fields around the rail berm becomes easier, and as you approach villages you've got the high ground over them as well. That's the significance. Russia is capturing a section of high ground, and then expanding an area of control around it, and then capturing the next section of high gr positions outside of Yasnobrodovka with encirclement.

Yes. I actually saw a pretty good article on the subject with some great images and mapping, which I was going to cite in my post, but apparently lost it.

I saw some reports that Russians are either in or right by Toretsk. I think Feanor’s update mentioned it as well. There have been some geolocated Russian positions and infantry teams all around the area. Here is one example - a cropped image form the post on X talking about the geolocated drop from a Ukrainian drone on the Russian infantry:

There are a few sources claiming that the Russians are actually in Toretsk itself, but nothing to substantiate it with so far.

This is interesting too though. A proof, if you will, that Russian troops are still sitting in that plant in Vavchansk:

They’ve been sitting there for a while now. How is this going to turn out, I wonder? There were talks about that group being supplied with what they need via drones and whatnot.The area certainly got Ukrainian attention though.

It appears that there is “the usual” happening between New York and Zalizne:

Thoughts out loud kind of part of the post…

Pasi Paroinen’s post in regard to the measurable gains of the RU offensive this year vs Ukraine offensive in the summer of 2023. I don’t think he particularly chose the correct timeline because Russia has been grinding for almost a year now, but he chose the summer offensive and it is a fair comparison (should be readable to everyone):

Thread by @Inkvisiit on Thread Reader App

@Inkvisiit: Made some rudimentary calculations on how the Russian 2024 summer offensive compares to the Ukrainian 2023 summer offensive in terms of territorial change of Russian controlled area on our map. 1/ It’s q...…

threadreaderapp.com

On average, in this particular comparison, Russia appears to be to moving at nearly double the pace Ukraine did last year. Again, I don’t think this is a necessarily proper comparison since a lot had preceded the “rapid” movement by Russia before the summer took off. Regardless, in the grand scheme of things, here is another perspective:

I cropped the image from this:

Taken from this X post. Clearly, as visible from the cropped image, the red line represents the 2022 front line, green represents 2023, and blue - 2024. Looks like insanity from this perspective, doesn’t it? Yet here we are. Sure, the front could collapse, even then… Anyway…

Looks like I lost the next link I was going to mention…

Here is another bit: perspective of what is happening by two different people, both are probably familiar to many who follow the war on Twitter and elsewhere, really (well, maybe not Vitaly for the elsewhere part):

It is extremely hard to agree with Vitaly there. I mean it has been at least 7 months (conservatively speaking) since the Russians began their counterattack in Robotino and 14 months since Ukraine began their counteroffensive in that direction. Then add the time when things were quite - the time when Russia built their, apparently hard to break, defences through the entire front line.

A couple of things more I was going to mention on this latter part, thinking out loud, but the thoughts had left the building for the time being, it appears.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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