The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[vikingatespam]

Except the two aren't the same. Ukraine doesn't want to fight.

UKR has a army, command system, and drafting mechanisms in place that are all functioning. They may not be running optimally, but they still all work. Together, they offer resistance to RU goals. That is literally the definition of wanting to fight. Even the US had AWOL and draft dodgers in WW2, and I think we can all agree that doesnt mean the US didnt "want" to fight at the time.

I suppose we could quibble on the use of "want" as no one "wants" to sit in a trench under artillery fire, while being hunted by FPV drones, but I think you see my point.

If UKR did not want to fight (again, collectively speaking), we would see something along the lines of the French or Russian army mutinies of 1917, or maybe widespread public discontent as expressed in the US during Vietnam.

Don't confuse the government for the country.

I cant poll every single Ukrainian citizen. All I can do is judge the apparent lack of evidence of a lack of will to fight, as per my point above.

He's very clearly referring to the fact that Ukraine is striking civilian shipping that belongs to neutral countries. Whether they're Chinese specifically or not is unimportant. Either you're allowed to strike countries not in the fight or you're not. Ukraine has opened a problematic and dangerous door with this behavior. Depending on how exactly one looks at it, it amounts to state-sanctioned piracy, or even terrorism. And of course Russia has already mirrored their response.

It is a dangerous response to strike shadow fleet vessels, escalatory in nature. Is it warranted ? Scchhhmmmmaybeee ? I suspect this isnt going to be used widely, and is more of an attempt to inflate insurance costs on the shadow fleet so much, that they can no longer commercially operate. Admittedly , Im on the fence on this one.

 

[Aleks.ov]

^ I think are way off, my man. The US does not give two shits about what Russia thinks about Venezuela. And you certainly overestimate the acceptable cost and the Geran UAV capabilities, to a laughable degree in the context you present it in.

I suppose the Houthis, with their primitive drones and the US flight from the Red Sea, have proven the opposite. But we're getting off topic.

 

[personaldesas]

I suppose the Houthis, with their primitive drones and the US flight from the Red Sea, have proven the opposite. But we're getting off topic.

So you’re saying Russia might at any time pull a significant number of Shaheds out of Ukraine, somehow project them roughly 13,000 km across the Pacific, and meaningfully intervene in Venezuela, on the basis that the Houthis managed to harass a shipping lane located right next to their own territory. Is that the claim?

 

[swerve]

Ukraine attacks Russian ‘shadow’ tanker off Libyan coast

Reportedly critical drone strike is first in Mediterranean since full-scale invasion began as maritime conflict grows

www.theguardian.com

'A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Friday’s attack was a “new, unprecedented special operation”.'
Great! Let's all do "unprecedented special operations".
“The enemy must understand that Ukraine will not stop, and will strike them anywhere in the world, wherever they may be,”
Then, Russia mustn't stop and hit them "anywhere in the world".
"this is an absolutely legitimate target for the SBU."
UK is providing weapons to Ukraine, UK is an "absolutely legitimate target" for Russia; as every ship and every rail line providing aid to Ukraine is. (I live in UK.)

Different categories.

 

[rsemmes]

Different categories.

Speaking to the online outlet Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian official justified the strike. “This tanker was used to circumvent sanctions and earn money that was used for the war against Ukraine. Therefore, from the point of view of international law and the laws and customs of war, this is an absolutely legitimate target for the SBU. The enemy must understand that Ukraine will not stop and will beat him anywhere in the world, wherever he is.”

According to whom?

 

[Feanor]

UKR has a army, command system, and drafting mechanisms in place that are all functioning. They may not be running optimally, but they still all work. Together, they offer resistance to RU goals. That is literally the definition of wanting to fight.

It literally is not. Wanting to fight, or being willing to fight, refers to the desires of individual citizens. The desire of the Ukrainian government to keep fighting isn't in question.

Even the US had AWOL and draft dodgers in WW2, and I think we can all agree that doesnt mean the US didnt "want" to fight at the time.

Best current estimates put Ukraine at somewhere between 400-500k troops, with ~300k deserters. There are examples of formations that lose over half of personnel in training before they get to the front lines. I think we can all agree the comparison to US AWOL and draft dodgers is at the very least inaccurate and misleading.

I suppose we could quibble on the use of "want" as no one "wants" to sit in a trench under artillery fire, while being hunted by FPV drones, but I think you see my point.

If UKR did not want to fight (again, collectively speaking), we would see something along the lines of the French or Russian army mutinies of 1917, or maybe widespread public discontent as expressed in the US during Vietnam.

We do see widespread public discontent, including people literally getting into fights or even trying to kill TCC personnel in the streets.

I cant poll every single Ukrainian citizen.

That's not how polling works... you do a representative sample utilizing a recognized methodology.

All I can do is judge the apparent lack of evidence of a lack of will to fight, as per my point above.

There is no lack of evidence. There is a lack of willingness to look at it.

Ukrainian Support for War Effort Collapses

New data from Ukraine show the public favors ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has plummeted.

news.gallup.com

It is a dangerous response to strike shadow fleet vessels, escalatory in nature. Is it warranted ? Scchhhmmmmaybeee ? I suspect this isnt going to be used widely, and is more of an attempt to inflate insurance costs on the shadow fleet so much, that they can no longer commercially operate. Admittedly , Im on the fence on this one.

I think it's a desperate and thoroughly illegal move that indicates Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure are getting to a critical point. You'll note that energy ceasefire ideas are being floated at the same time as this happens. I think it's a carrot and stick attempt to get Russia to stop destroying Ukrainian infrastructure.