The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor Are you able to confirm that the military headquarters has been evacuated from Crimea and the families of army personnel ordered to leave ?
No, nothing so far. Note it doesn't mean it's not happening.

Well that's not quite "families ordered to leave" and "the military headquarters evacuated". It's also ukrinform. Not the kind of source whose word I'd take on anything ever.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
But the US, and more so NATO, will never enter a war with Russia because their UAV's are downed when they came dangerousely close to the limit of Russian air space during active spying missions. Especialy when the air space is considered a war zone. Americans and Europeans know that it's fair game and don't want to escalate for such minor incident. Even the downing of a manned jet would not cause a rapid escalation.

The Russians should know that. The problem is that, maybe, they don't believe that because they are taught in academy teaching, not only through mass media propagand, that NATO is preparing to attack Russia under the US leadership. If this is true, it would speak volumes on how scared by NATO they are. It seems a little but far fetched.
I don't want to continue down this spiral. Shooting down another country's aircraft over international waters, without it violating your airspace, is generally not how countries behave, and it is generally not how Russia has behaved in the past. Doing so would be a departure from previous behavior, and a clear escalation.

It doesn't mean that they will want to divert these resource just to create an unsafe atmosphere for the West in other regions of the world. This unsafety would be more theorical than real because it's unlikely that the countries or groups in question would provike the US by firing at them. It's practically sure that these weapons will never be used. At th moment, they need all their capacities, not only to strike Ukraine, but to preserve conventional deterent, if not even simply basic defence, on the western border with NATO.
It's not just a few missiles, or a few drawings to build them, it's also logistic, engineers and military personel traveling far from Russia and money. If you exclude Venezuela, Iran and North Korea who can operate this technology by their own, they would need to keep permanent teams where the weapons will be transported. I don't doubt their ability to do it. I only doubt that they want to do it, right now, in this context.
We have a vague statement suggesting something by Putin and little else so speculating on the specifics is a tad pointless. That having been said, the Houthis operate relatively complex systems and they're barely a state-level actor.

It's not a self-propelled howitzer. But it's also not an assault vehicle. It's a support vehicle supposed to fire from a certain distance, but not a very big distance, to help assault troops or stop ennemy advance. It's designed to move faster and over longer distances than a tank while still having a large calliber gun.
They're using it as an indirect fire weapon. This is not how it's meant to be used.

This article tries to minimise the impact of this decision while it should be taken for what it is. France is not the US, still, they will sent more planes than the US does (zero). Of course nobody expected that France would send dozens of Mirage 2000. Only 37 of the -5 version have been built, and if the article is correct, only 20 remains operational. Others are for spare parts.
France is phasing out the Mirage 2000. It's not very complicated to sent 6 jets now, the others later. France can survive with a few planes less in their squadrons the time they are being replaced.

That we need the planes from Qatar and the UAE is pure fiction. There isn;t enough Ukrainian pilot to beg planes from arab emirates. It was only written by journalist that we could find more of these planes if Qatar and UAE would agree to donate them. Then someone writes that the plan will fail if they don't. If we need more Mirage 2000 and Qatar don;t want to give them away, France can upgrade other variants.

I worry much more about the financial and political ability of France to fund a sustainable increase of weapon production. The debt of France is as bad as that of Italy and Spain, except that the finances of Italy and Spain are improving while France is slowly sinking into bail-out level.
Macron's symbolical defeat at the European elections and his decision to dissolve the National Assembly (if I can use this translation) won;t help.
If the pro-Russian Marine Le Pen's party wins the announced parliamentary elections, she will join Viktor Orban in his opposition to the war effort.
It's also a question of being able to operate it. If Ukraine can operate 6, they can operate 12, and as France slowly ditches their remaining ones, they can donate those too. It also opens the door on acquiring used Mirages for Ukraine. It's a significant move in terms of future development. In the short term of course this isn't particularly significant in and of itself.

From what I have read quickly, the Mirage 2000-5 is optimised to air to air attacks at high altitudes. If they intend to use them for that purpose they could intercept bombers over Russia.
In the current realities it's not even clear they'll be able to intercept Russian bombers over Ukraine. You would have to do a lot of damage to Russian air defenses, and push back Russia's own combat jets quite a bit. And if this is accomplished, will there even be Russian bombers flying missions in a place they can be readily intercepted? I believe they will be used to deliver air to ground ordinance, and may be involved in an attempt to ambush Russian jets at some point, but that's about it. Intercepting bombers over Russia is a highly unlikely scenario to put it mildly.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Shooting down another country's aircraft over international waters, without it violating your airspace, is generally not how countries behave, and it is generally not how Russia has behaved in the past. Doing so would be a departure from previous behaviour, and a clear escalation.
Sorry to drill down this topic again. I just try to understand their behaviour.
Americans are flying their observation drones only above international waters or air space and that's the reason why Russia don't shoot them down. But that also means that their spying capability is more limited than by flying at the vertical of Russian installations.

Feanor said:
If Ukraine can operate 6, they can operate 12
Yes. This number of 6 is only a speculation.

Feanor said:
Intercepting bombers over Russia is a highly unlikely scenario to put it mildly.
I agree. That was my first thought when I learned the news.

Since, I have been reading and listening a little bit more about it. According to former french pilot and pro-Ukraine military expert Xavier Tytelman, the Mirage 2000 would be mainly used to intercept cruise missiles, and when they have a chance, Russian planes above Ukraine only (suggesting that there won't be many of such cases), UAV's (seems overkill but he means that it can do it), and hellicopters.

A rotation of Mirage 2000 could patrol the Ukrainian sky or be ready to scramble within minutes and shot down incoming missile to fill the gaps in the ground to air defence. He suggests that this will be the main job of the Mirage 2000 while F16 would be freed for other missions. Attacking ground targets is also possible but it's not the main role of this aircraft.

KipPotapych said:
, of course, meant Ukrainian sources that don’t tend to spread baseless rumours for propaganda purposes.
Well, so don't complain that you are not up to date with official Ukrainian press releases. LOL :)
It's like not listening to Peskov or Putin... Would you ban yourself from listening to them too?

Feanor said:
Well that's not quite "families ordered to leave" and "the military headquarters evacuated".
Note that the translation in English is far from perfect. Unfortunately, it's very difficult to find the same article in its original version on this website because they are not published in the same order. If you have time, and don't suffer allergy like Kip (<== LOL), you can look for it.

My interpretation is that one officer had his family accommodated not far from the S400 system and that he was told to move them to a safer location in a military district in the south.
Not really a strategic decision from the Kremlin.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Note that the translation in English is far from perfect. Unfortunately, it's very difficult to find the same article in its original version on this website because they are not published in the same order. If you have time, and don't suffer allergy like Kip (<== LOL), you can look for it.
The link to the original version is in the very article you cited. The translation is good enough - it doesn’t change anything that was said in the original in Russian.

My interpretation is that one officer had his family accommodated not far from the S400 system and that he was told to move them to a safer location in a military district in the south.
Not really a strategic decision from the Kremlin.
It literally says in the article “strategic reorientation” and so it does in the original.

Actually it does change some meaning. The article you cited says that “Crimea remains without attention”. The original post says that “the main attention is shifting from Crimea”. Very different. Neither is likely a reality though.


In regard to “allergic”, haha, I would rather not spent my time reading rumours (read propaganda) spread by presumably “Ukrainian and Tatar partisans” from Crimea.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This utuber suggests that Russia is moving air defence assets from Crimea to Russian border 1.48.46, as with anything you hope for multiple sources but if Russia has moved its naval and air assets from Crimea and wishes to reinforce against drones attacking the heartland this could make sense
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
I have mostly looked at the Ukrainian sources for the past couple of days. They say that it was a photo op similar to what the “russian partisans” did crossing the Russian border for the photos (and taking some in the Ukrainian villages as well). No idea what the truth is, but just for the informational purposes.


In regard to the Aktubinsk strike and Su-57. The Russian MoD denied any damage to the planes (lol). Fighterbomber said that two were damaged: one that he mentioned earlier and the other that he said can be “patched up on the spot”, so very minor damage it appears, provided it is true. He said that all three drones that were launched hit the site and the AD wasn’t working.


He also reported that none of the painted decoys were damaged in the strike. Haha. Those painted decoys is about the dumbest thing I have seen in a while though.
With the Sun in the right position, or during night, such painted decoys can be confusing.

Here some more information. And it is clear that the Russians have to take better care of their airbases, by improving their air defences and increase the protection by constructing simple shelters.
Su-57 Felon Targeted In Ukraine Strike Seen In New Higher-Resolution Satellite Images (yahoo.com)
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It appears Russia has grabbed the Belogorovka mound. Coupled with the recent advances in the southern part of the Seversk salient, this sets up for the fall of Belogorovka itself (which is already partially under Russian control), Grigorievka, Spornoe, Vyemka, and Ivanodar'yevka. At current tempo, it might be easily another 2-4 months for this to play out, after which, depending on success or lack thereof in Razdolovka, Russia might be in a position to move on Severk itself.
 

Fredled

Active Member
With the Sun in the right position, or during night, such painted decoys can be confusing.

Here some more information. And it is clear that the Russians have to take better care of their airbases, by improving their air defences and increase the protection by constructing simple shelters.
Su-57 Felon Targeted In Ukraine Strike Seen In New Higher-Resolution Satellite Images (yahoo.com)
These painted decoys are not ridiculous but they are a little bit out of date. They used to confuse satellite imagery 30 years ago. Since then, space spying has improved, as improved all types of target designation devices. Not even talking about drones.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
With the Sun in the right position, or during night, such painted decoys can be confusing.

Here some more information. And it is clear that the Russians have to take better care of their airbases, by improving their air defences and increase the protection by constructing simple shelters.
Su-57 Felon Targeted In Ukraine Strike Seen In New Higher-Resolution Satellite Images (yahoo.com)
These painted decoys are not ridiculous but they are a little bit out of date. They used to confuse satellite imagery 30 years ago. Since then, space spying has improved, as improved all types of target designation devices. Not even talking about drones.
They're a sad substitute for proper HAS. Under the Serdyukov era Russia had a program for new aircraft hangars to be built, but it got scrapped under Shoygu. Since then not much has been done despite many people commenting on it. After the most recent embarrassment there has been official statement that they will build proper HAS though if they follow through remains to be seen.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
To be fair Shoygu is not alone in this neglect , Im not sure how many N.A.T.O has but even the unhardened shelters have a good purpose
I mean... sort of? NATO hasn't had double digit aircraft losses due to lack of air shelters, not in one incident, but spread out on a timeline of literally 2 years. It's one thing not to learn from the mistakes of others, but not learning from your own is a special kind of stupid. In Russia there is an expression "jumping on a rake".
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Perhaps monies put aside for these shelters were invested in something like creature comforts ,I was interested if the new defence minister would be allowed to investigate these types of corruption
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
There appears to be a large fire at the Sukhoi design bureau in Moscow cause so far unknown likely a setback for Sukhoi
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kharkov area.

A Russian T-90M engaged in Kharkov region fires their HMG on enemy ATGM teams, reportedly Javelins. Some sources claim the tank took a hit and survived withdrawing, others state it put up a smoke screen and escaped claiming the bit of fire at the end is burning propellant.


A reportedly failed Ukrainian counter-attack near Glubokoe. Ukraine has massed quite a few forces in the area and now seems to be counter-attacking.


Russia hit the Stariy Saltov crossing again, catching a Ukrainian vehicle on it, with a Kh-38ML.


Russian Kh-38 strikes on grain elevators in Kharkov region being used as OPs by Ukrainian forces.


Russian TOS strikes, Volchansk area.


A Ukrainian PzH-2000 clearly visible for once, getting hit by a Russian Lancet, Kharkov area.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Nota EW station getting hit near Kharkov. We can see some infantry there.


A Ukrainian counter-battery radar in Kharkov region.


A destroyed Ukrainian MAN HX81 truck, Kharkov area.


Another destroyed Bogdana howitzer, this one on the Puma chassis.


A Ukrainian wounded POW reports that Kraken fighters only evacuated their own wounded, abandoning regular army WIA.


Ukrainian shelling and UAV strikes of Belgorod area continues. Most notably is the collapse of a residential building section allegedly after a Ukrainian artillery munition hit it. Total casualty count is unclear. They also hit a church among other targets.


Oskol front.

Russian forces advance westward out of Kotlyarovka and Berestovoe. South of there Russian forces have taken Myasozharovka and Andreevka, putting Stel'makhovka in a rather unconfortable position. There are also some Russian gains north of Ivanovka. Some are reporting this as the taking of the village Timkovka, but while in Soviet times there was a village there, nothing remains today.


Russian 27th MRBde Strela-10 somewhere on the Kupyansk axis. There is an interesting contrast between the clean looking seeker head on the missile visible and the TEL that looks straight out of the '70s. Since the war started Russia has produced newer munitions for the Strela-10M3 making them more relevant then they used to be, but it's still an older system.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces have gained ground towards Razdolovka from the south-south-west. Russian forces also continue to gain ground along the rail line towards Vyemka, and most significantly have captured the Belogorvka mound. Sources seem to disagree on whether it's the entire mound or the eastern summit, but it's the tallest part, making it by far the more significant piece.


New Russian Molniya loitering munitions being used in the Seversk salient.


Allegedly a PzH-2000 getting hit in the Seversk area. We can't make out what's getting hit but it's something.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces seem to have broken Ukrainian lines in the canal neighborhood and have taken the central part of the neighborhood. This may be related to Ukrainian forces being pulled towards Kharkov. This is likely the beginning of the fall of Ukrainian positions east of the canal. The fight for Chasov Yar itself will take much longer.


Russian quadcopters dropping grenades on Ukrainian troops attempting to rotate near the multi-story buildings in the canal neighborhood, Chasov Yar. This seems to be a pattern, interdiction against Ukrainian troops in the area on a tactical level. In the first video we have a SUV in the second a MaxXPro MRAP getting the same treatment.


A Kozak armored car knocked out and abandoned on the road into the canal neighborhood illustrating the interdiction efforts.


A Bradley gets immobilized and abandoned near Chasov Yar, then destroyed by a quadcopter grenade drop. Note this is our first sighting of this IFV in this area, and it might be a mistaken labeling.


Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64 gets hit near Chasov Yar. I can't make out the tank type.


Ocheretino-Netaylovo area.

Russian forces have gained ground west of Netaylovo, both north of the pond, and south on the outskirts of Karlovka. Russian forces have also entered Novoaleksandrovka, which may be partially or completely under Russian control, the situation isn't immediately clear, and Sokol where the village is definitely contested. Russian forces also gained some ground westward along the rail line. Lastly Russian forces have taken Novopokrovskoe, and a number of tree lines south of it, pushing towards Novoselka 1st.


Reports from a Ukrainian TerDefBde that was devending Novoaleksandrovka suggest that they were partially surrounded, and fell back, and are now being accused of abandoning their positions.


An M1A1 burns west of Avdeevka.


Another destroyed M1A1 near Sokol.


Mar'inka-Novomihailovka.

Russian forces have pushed westward out of Georgievka, and entered Maksimil'yanovka. Technically the next locale over is the significant town of Kurakhovo, a major Ukrainian logistics hub. However this would be an extreme salient. Russian forces haven't even finished storming Krasnogorovka. This are quiet on the Konstantinovka axis after the fall of Paraskovievka, though there are some Russian gains south of Novomihailovka, advancing on the road.


Russian forces have also reportedly gained some ground inside Krasnogorovka though it remains slow going, and not all sources confirm.


A Ukrainian T-64BV taken out near Konstantinovka.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Zaporozhye front.

Russian forces have reportedly taken Staromayorskoe and are advancing on the flanks of Urozhaynoe, out of Staromayorskoe.


Russian gliding bomb strikes in Tsvetkovoe, Zaporozhye region.


Russian Grad fires in Urozhaynoe.


Crimea-Black Sea area.

Russian helicopter engages Ukrainian unmanned boat.


Russian Raptor gunboat with a thermal sight for it's HMG.


Russian forces using captured Ukrainian Gyurza-M boats, re-armed with Soviet 2M-3M guns. Their value is limited, suggesting Russia is short on patrol vessels.


Russia has built a wall of 17 barges to protect the Crimean bridge from unmanned boat attacks. A clever person might point out that they can just go around, but that's likely the point. The longer it takes them to get to target the more chances Russian helos have to destroy them. Ukraine has reportedly attacked at least one of these barges with a UAV from the side of the Azov sea.


Strikes.

Russia carried out a combined strike, first taking out a Ukrainian S-300 battery covering the significant Mirgorod airfield, and then hitting a Ukrainian Su-27 on the airfield (allegedly an Su-27UB). Other jets based there were reportedly undamaged. Note this strike is over 150kms away, since just to the Russian border is over that. Strikes of this nature have become a regular occurence though this one is the longest range so far. When Ukraine receives western jets, they will either have to hid quite far from the front, or be exposed.


Russia hit another Ukrainian jet, this time an Su-25 at Dolgintsevo airfield, near Dnepropetrovsk. Partially constructed aircraft protection elements can be made out.


Russia hit the Vasil'kovo airbase, in Kiev region. We have no good reports on the damage, but they used new Kh-101s with the cluster munition warhead.


Russia also hit the Grebenki fuel storage facility in Kiev causing a massive fire that took over 200 personnel and nearly two days to put out.


Russian strike taking out another P-18 radar in Ukraine.


Russian Lancet strike on an SP Howitzer on a trailer. A second Lancet hits the trailer afterwards. I think this is Kharkov region.


Russia intercepted a Ukrainian missile over Lugansk causing it to fall on a residential building killing 6 and wounding 60. Other Ukrainian munitions also landed in the city.


Ukraine hit the Mozdok airfield, apparently missing the jets parked outside but hitting a maintenance structure that may have contained a jet. At least 6 UAVs were used and some were apparently intercepted.


Ukraine hit an oil refinery in Voronezh region but it didn't catch fire.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

Russian forces raided the village of Ryzhevka in Sumy region. The village is near an important road.


A Russian T-90M with it's front fuel tank burning retreats.


Ukrainian marines under fire on the islands in the Dnepr. The soldier that gets wounded seems to be Polish.


A Ukrainian M-55S damaged by a Russian shell.


Ukrainian sources report the loss of another Mi-8 and crew. Details and confirmation is lacking.


A Russian UAZ jeep with a remote minelayer.


Russian soldiers using screen kits from BTR-82As to up-armor their MBTs. A questionable choice.


Russian Su-35S flying with 2 short range RVV-MD (upgrade), two mid-range RVV-SD (R-77 upgrade), and 4 RVV-BD (R-37M).


A Russian soldier poses with a rather old RPD, somewhere in the war. It's unclear if this is captured Ukrainian kit, or if Russia has pulled kit that old out of storage.


Somewhere in Lugansk region a scarce Russian BMR-3M doing it's work.


Recently mobilized Ukrainian personnel show their age.


Ukraine's 47th Mech Bde shows off an M1A1 that got the anti-UAS cage treatment. Losses of the type so far have wiped out over half of Ukraine's rather small inventory, though more are no doubt coming.


Ukrainian personnel taking apart a M830A1 tank shell to be used as UAV munitions.


Ukraine's 56th Mech Bde with a rare BTR-4.


Ukrainian Roshel Senator and Dozor-B/Oncilla armored cars with massive anti-drone cages.


Slovenia is shipping 26 Yugoslav BOV armored cars, including 3 armed with 20mm AAA, and 3 more M-80A IFVs.


Reportedly the US will hand over another Patriot battery to Ukraine.


US Col. Clemente claims one of the A-50s Russia lost was downed by a Patriot.


The Netherlands are promising more CV90s for Ukraine, but in 2026.


Italian M113 variants (VCC2) are heading to Ukraine.


Reportedly Ukraine has adapted their Su-25s to carry AASM Hammer gliding bombs. This is in stark contrast to Russian Su-25s that still don't carry UMPKs.


Ukraine is reportedly forming a new unit, the 49th Engineer-Assault bde. Prior to the war Russia was experimenting with engineer-assault units.


Reportedly a Spanish soldier on leave was killed while fighting in Ukraine. Where have I seen this scenario before? Russian soldiers on vacation fighting in the LDNR...


South Korean sources suggest North Korea may have sent as many as 5 million artillery shells to Russia. Personally I find the word "may" suspicious.


In his recent public statements Putin stated that in order to negotiate with Ukraine, they have to withdraw their troops from the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions. I think this closes the door on any realistic negotiations for some time to come. For context on the insanity, the second link has a map. The red parts are what he's talking about.


Russia's former VDV Gen. Shamanov speaks in the Duma claiming the military has a shortage of body armor/PPE forcing personnel to buy their own kit.


Russian reconstruction efforts in Mariupol' continue, here they are rebuilding the destroyed theater.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ukraine hit the Mozdok airfield, apparently missing the jets parked outside but hitting a maintenance structure that may have contained a jet. At least 6 UAVs were used and some were apparently intercepted.
Ukraine (Budanov) claimed that they used “at least 70 drones” for this attack. I am going to pass on commenting on that number, haha.


Ukraine's 47th Mech Bde shows off an M1A1 that got the anti-UAS cage treatment. Losses of the type so far have wiped out over half of Ukraine's rather small inventory, though more are no doubt coming.
I will have to cite the source for this, but I read just two or three days ago that no more Abrams are expected any time soon. Of course, it doesn’t mean that there won’t be any, especially as the availability of other MBTs decline. Though I can also see why there would be a reluctance to do so.

Slovenia is shipping 26 Yugoslav BOV armored cars, including 3 armed with 20mm AAA, and 3 more M-80A IFVs.
I wonder why they haven’t sent these a long time ago, as it seems like these have to be among the number one (or two?) contenders to get rid of.

Reportedly the US will hand over another Patriot battery to Ukraine.
After the initial report (in NYT, I believe), Lloyd Austin said they didn’t have any new announcement on the subject. There were other reports citing anonymous sources that there are no plans to move any Patriot batteries from Poland. I wonder if there are no plans or it is just another “surprise” move.


Poles said that they did not agree to any Patriot transfers and it would have to come from somewhere else.


In his recent public statements Putin stated that in order to negotiate with Ukraine, they have to withdraw their troops from the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions. I think this closes the door on any realistic negotiations for some time to come. For context on the insanity, the second link has a map. The red parts are what he's talking about.

While insanity, it is in line with the Ukrainian proposals. The timing of the “announcement”, just before the Swiss conference, probably plays some role in the ridiculousness of the position as well.

I saw numerous commentators also suggesting that it looks like Putin dropped the usual demilitarization and denazification clauses, but it seems like they missed that these are his “demands” just to start the negotiations. While on the subject, Putin a few days ago actually explained what he means by denazification and that is the prohibition (as in prohibited by law) of nazi propaganda in Ukraine.


Some commentators suggested that his statement is simply a starting point. I believe this is simply a response to the Zelensky's “peace formula” which is at least as ridiculous. After all, we had now seen previous (and recent) offers of negotiations by Russia, though unofficial, that included “recognizing the reality on the ground”, “border along the current front line”, and so on. Those seem like a starting point, though I doubt there would be much deviation there on the Russian side.

What’s definitely clear though, like you said, this is definitely an indicator of the fact that there are no talks in sight.

Russia's former VDV Gen. Shamanov speaks in the Duma claiming the military has a shortage of body armor/PPE forcing personnel to buy their own kit.

And he is probably right on point, I would think. I mean there are just as many or more donation campaigns in the Russian web sector as there are on the Ukrainian side.

There are reports that even Canadian troops buy their own kit as well, those serving in Europe in particular. So I am pretty sure there have to be shortages and quality issues in Russia, to say the least.


On a different note. Here is a recommended read in regards to our definitions, goals, and strategy in Ukriane by (again) Mark Galeotti:

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukraine (Budanov) claimed that they used “at least 70 drones” for this attack. I am going to pass on commenting on that number, haha.

I've come across Russian sources stating this is the total number of drones that attacked Russia that night across all regions. It would make sense.

I will have to cite the source for this, but I read just two or three days ago that no more Abrams are expected any time soon. Of course, it doesn’t mean that there won’t be any, especially as the availability of other MBTs decline. Though I can also see why there would be a reluctance to do so.
Maybe not, but it's the most logical source of MBTs for Ukraine.

I wonder why they haven’t sent these a long time ago, as it seems like these have to be among the number one (or two?) contenders to get rid of.
These are probably vehicles in poor condition that require repairs. It's possibly they needed time to get them into something resembling working order before shipping them.

While insanity, it is in line with the Ukrainian proposals. The timing of the “announcement”, just before the Swiss conference, probably plays some role in the ridiculousness of the position as well.

I saw numerous commentators also suggesting that it looks like Putin dropped the usual demilitarization and denazification clauses, but it seems like they missed that these are his “demands” just to start the negotiations. While on the subject, Putin a few days ago actually explained what he means by denazification and that is the prohibition (as in prohibited by law) of nazi propaganda in Ukraine.


Some commentators suggested that his statement is simply a starting point. I believe this is simply a response to the Zelensky's “peace formula” which is at least as ridiculous. After all, we had now seen previous (and recent) offers of negotiations by Russia, though unofficial, that included “recognizing the reality on the ground”, “border along the current front line”, and so on. Those seem like a starting point, though I doubt there would be much deviation there on the Russian side.

What’s definitely clear though, like you said, this is definitely an indicator of the fact that there are no talks in sight.
Let's wait and see I guess. I still don't see anything resembling real negotiating positions.
 
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