KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
That would make a lot more sense.
Yep, I agree.
That makes sense as well.
Indeed. Things should be more clear a few months from now (yet again?).
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Is it fair to suggest that Bradleys would be of more use to Ukraine than M.B.T,s ,it would seem the vast majority of tank kills by both sides are by drones and artillery ,certainly America would have the ability to replace the Bradley's destroyed and even train tank crews who lost tanks with their large surplus of
en.defence-ua.com
Bradley for Ukraine: Advantages of This Type of the IFV For the Armed Forces of Ukraine | Defense Express
Bradley IFV has a number decisive advantages over all other hypothetical IFVs that could strengthen the Armed Forces of Ukraine
en.defence-ua.com
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Военный Осведомитель
Противник опубликовал фото первого захваченного российского сарай-танка на базе Т-62М, Авдеевское направление. Несмотря на значительное повышение защищенности от удара FPV-дронов благодаря накладным сараям, у танков еще острее проявляется проблема со слабым обзором и низкой осведомленностью...
t.me
Despite the significant increase in protection against FPV drones thanks to overhead sheds, tanks have an even more acute problem with poor visibility and low crew awareness of what is happening around them.
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Basically they had no idea where they were because you can’t see squat from that thing.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
There was some discussion and speculation about the A-50 “friendly fire” incident back in February beginning with this post (looks like the wrong port, but the link leads to the right one, weird):
Today, a Russian court issued an arrest in absentia warrant for a Ukrainian colonel who, in their opinion, gave an order to shoot down the plane.
m.lenta.ru
This is concerning the February incident, not the one from January that was now told by the Americans to be shot down with the missile fired from a Patriot.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
Breaking News Gerasimov still alive. As a reminder, there were rumours that he had been killed on a strike over Crimea a few weeks ago. These rumours had never been confirmed. Delay in 155 shell production The story is about Canada. But Imagine the same reasoning is applied everywhere: It...
www.defencetalk.com
Today, a Russian court issued an arrest in absentia warrant for a Ukrainian colonel who, in their opinion, gave an order to shoot down the plane.
Суд Москвы заочно арестовал полковника ВСУ: его обвинили в приказе сбить российский самолет
Хамовнический районный суд Москвы заочно арестовал командира 138-1 зенитной ракетной бригады (войсковой части А4608) Вооруженных сил Украины (ВСУ) полковника Николая Дзямана, который отдал приказ об уничтожении самолета Воздушно-космических сил (ВКС) России в воздушном пространстве Российской...
This is concerning the February incident, not the one from January that was now told by the Americans to be shot down with the missile fired from a Patriot.
Larry_L
Active Member
I have not posted in awhile, but have occasionally been able to read posts. One of the latest things interesting to me is a mention that Russia is doing search, and rescue for a sub. I have so far found no confirmation of this anywhere.
x.com
There appears to have been quite a scrap around the aggregate plant in Vovchansk. There are reports that a large group of Russians were cut off there, and some had to surrender due to lack of food and water. One report stated that some of them held out despite strikes by hammer bombs, and the site had to be assaulted. It looks like both sides are pushing hard in this area.
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euromaidanpress.com
t.me
t.me
There is a lot of chatter about targeting ISR UAV's. These are a issue for both sides, and various means are being tried to bring them down. One way is with FPV drones. Here an orlan 10 is attacked by an FPV, and destroyed. The Orlan is reported to cost $100,000, but that seems inflated quite a bit.
x.com
Another video of an FPV after a Zala UAV. Not sure of the outcome.
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There appears to have been quite a scrap around the aggregate plant in Vovchansk. There are reports that a large group of Russians were cut off there, and some had to surrender due to lack of food and water. One report stated that some of them held out despite strikes by hammer bombs, and the site had to be assaulted. It looks like both sides are pushing hard in this area.
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Frontline report: Ukrainian counterattacks recapture key positions in Vovchansk - Euromaidan Press
Ukrainian counterattacks recaptured key positions in Vovchansk. Russians surrendered en masse due to being surrounded and cut off. Ukraine struck Russian logistics.
euromaidanpress.com
RFU English
Here you can find daily updates on what is happening in Ukraine. You can also support us by buying clothes and accessories in our store: uasupporter.com/en
t.me
Игорь Артамонов
Еще два БПЛА были подавлены над промышленной территорией Липецка. На месте падения обломков работают сотрудники правоохранительных органов. Жертв нет. Сохраняется красный уровень опасности. Системы обнаружения и подавления находятся в состоянии готовности. Прошу вас не публиковать фото и...
t.me
There is a lot of chatter about targeting ISR UAV's. These are a issue for both sides, and various means are being tried to bring them down. One way is with FPV drones. Here an orlan 10 is attacked by an FPV, and destroyed. The Orlan is reported to cost $100,000, but that seems inflated quite a bit.
x.com
x.com
Another video of an FPV after a Zala UAV. Not sure of the outcome.
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Feanor said:
I would not call it insane, but ambitious. In the sens that he asks more than freezing the territory dispute on the actual front line as everybody would expect.KipPotapych said:
He also reiterated his demand that Ukraine won't join NATO.
It's of course inacceptable for Ukraine, but at least we know what Putin wants. Until that day, his goals, intents and claims were very vague. Now we have a precise and firm proposal.
Precise because he sets the limits of the territories he claims for his conquest at the administrative borders of the oblasts. This suggests that he will agree to set the new Ukraine-Russia border there and that it won't be discussed further afterward.
Firm because he said twice, during his press conference, that he would stop hostilities "the minute after Ukrainian authorities announce that they will agree with the implementation of troops withdrawals"[sic Putin]. By the tone of his voice, and how he emphasised this, IMO, it suggested an immediate end to the war, not just a ceasefire.
After that being said, he didn't say that he dropped other demands, and indeed, he said or suggested that talks with Ukraine would follow on other topics. But he made abundantly clear that the military operation would stop immediately if these demands were met. Restarting hostilities after that would be extremely difficult diplomatically.
It's interesting that he asks for the new border to be on existing administrative delimitation. He wants to show that his proposal is based on an existing legal border, not motivated by military or economic interests. For example he doesn't claim Odessa which is necessary to connect the Land Corridor to Transnistria, and cutting Ukraine off the Black Sea completely. It's also important to consider what he leaves to Ukraine. Not only what he takes.
At the same time he wants to take back Kherson which makes no sens geographically.
Putin knows that Ukrainians won't accept that. But he doesn't care what Ukrainians think. He hopes that some world leaders, from countries far from Europe, and influential people in the US, would say that this proposal is reasonable, if we look at a map. That would have been a start of a diplomatic victory.Feanor said:
Perhaps he even hoped that the US would consider this offer and decide that it would be more profitable to cede some teritories than continuing the war. Putin has said that the Ukrainian government is not independent and is infeudated to the US. And he may honestly believe so. That's why his demands are so much at odds with common sens.
________________________
7,000 people applied to the military recruitment centers in Ukraine in four months.
Far from the 700 000 needed. But better than zero.
Russia mobilises/recruits the same number in one week.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,207
It makes total sense. It's a massive bridgehead on the right side of the Dnepr, provided Russia can hold it. It means Ukraine never again has the option of retreating behind the Dnepr in a future war. Even in wartime it took a massive effort to dislodge Russia from there. In peacetime Russia could add 3-4 more bridges to the area, as well as repairing the Kahovka dam, making it much more difficult to repeat what happened. Throw in massive defenses comparable to the so-called Surovikin line, and you could have one giant well-supplied fortress for any future conflict that involves Ukraine on one side and Russia on the other. I don't think anyone can suppose Ukraine will be friendly to Russia after this war. And of course Ukraine's NATO aspirations won't go away, they will just be less public, assuming Ukraine agrees to Russian conditions.
I don't think anyone is anywhere near ready to accept conditions of the kind Russia suggested. Consider the current fighting. Let's say Russian for the rest of this year efforts are reasonably successful everywhere. Not the likeliest scenario, but for argument's sake, let's consider it. In the north the current push towards Borovoe succeeds, and Ukrainian forces on the left short of the Oskol are in a shrinking perimeter around Kupyansk. Russia collapses the Seversk salient, and takes the town. Russian forces clear Chasov Yar, and are threatening Toretsk from the north, and Konstatinovka from the north-east. Russian forces out of the Ocheretino breakthrough cut the Konstantinovka-Pokrovsk road, and Konstantinovka and Toretsk are now both realistic targets, that could fall. Westward Russian forces continue to expand out of the Avdeevka axis and either reach or even take Selidovo (very optimistic here). Russian forces also mop up Krasnogorovka, and are either contesting or in control of Kurakhovo. Russian forces out of Novomihailovka take the Konstantinovka village, turn Ugledar into a salient, and then take Ugledar in the same manner as Avdeevka. On the Zaporozhye front we have moderate advances in all the areas, Russia retakes all pieces of Ukraine's former offensive grounds, and now threatens both Orekhov and Velikaya Novoselka directly. So what? It would take another 2-3 years of fighting after that, with continued mostly unmitigated Russian successes to achieve what Putin is suggesting. Fighting for Toretsk, Novgorodskoe, and Konstantinovka, would take another 6 months if not longer. There's the separate problem of retaking Krasniy Liman, and only then does the road to Slavyansk-Kramatorsk open. Pokrovsk has to fall, and it would take multiple offensive westward beyond Selidovo and Kurakhovo to make that possible. It's likely this could only be attempted after the fall of Konstantinovka. In the south, there's endless little villages and fields until you reach the western borders of Donetsk region from Kurakhovo, easily more then double the distance from Mar'inka to Kurakhovo. And this doesn't even begin to contemplate the difficulty of taking Zaporozhye city, or forcing the Dnepr.
I think the only scenario where territorial gains like this are likely is a Ukrainian collapse. But in a Ukrainian collapse even Kharkov could be taken, not by Russian strength but by Ukrainian weakness. If Russia is playing for a Ukrainian collapse, why make the current offer at all? It looks unreasonable to anyone who considers what it means in practice, giving up two major cities to Russia and a piece of the right shore of the Dnepr. So as a nominal peace overture it doesn't really look good. As a practical solution Ukraine won't accept it, and it's unlikely any of Ukraine's western backers will either. They're busy approving Ukrainian missile strikes against Russia proper, and expanding the inventory of weapons supplied to Ukraine. So what's the point? Is Russian leadership delusional as to the position of the west and Ukraine? Or is this a completely empty offer, and really Russia is just playing for the collapse of Ukraine, so when they do grab possibly much more then this, they can say "we made a better offer in the past"? It looks strange to me.
I think Putin tried to show the the Global South, countries undecided or paying little or no attention to what happens in Ukraine, that he is able to make peace offers. For people who live in other parts of the world and don't follow the situation closely, if at all, and have no interest with Ukraine whatsoever, it may look palatable, on the surface.Feanor said:
I don't think Putin is delusional to the point that Ukraine and their allies could consider his offer. He sees himself how slow the progresses are. But he still think that a Collapse of Ukraine or a big retreat by Ukraine will happen in a few months. Russia just started to increase their military production and reorganisation and he believes in its effectiveness.
___________________
Result of the Peace Summit:
- 90 countries participated out of 160 onvited. This show that more than one third of the countries in the world don;t pay attention to Ukraine. This is IMO normal. It doesn't mean that they are allied with Russia. It's just not their business.
- 82 countries signed the joint communiqué. And a few non-participating countries also signed it later. However the biggest, and therefore the most important countries didn't.
Brasil, India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates + China and other who didn't attend, didn't sign it.
link: Al-Jazeera (to be neutral)
The synbolical value of the joint communiqué is greatly reduced by the absence of these important signatories.
IMO, these countries don't want to be engaged or compromised in the process and prefer to remain 100% neutral toward Russia.
- What Ukraine won in the joint communiqué if it was to be applied?
1/ The Zaporizha power plant. It suggest that to be under the supervision of the IAEA, it should not be occupied by the Russian military. In other word it should be returned to Ukraine.
2/ The Grain Corridor. The corridor is effective but the communiqué states clearly that Russia hasn't the right to stop, board or fire on ships traveling there. This part of the Black Sea becomes de facto safe for Ukraine.
3/ Prisoner exchange.
It was also decided that a next summit will be organised with Russia.
_____________
Russia is on war footing and Putin doesn't care about the economic situation. Russia still had enough oil revenues for the next several decades.Seaspear said:
I don't think that seeing the sovereign fund and foreign reserves evaporate is putting any pressure on Purin. After all, in his mind, this was to be used precisely for that.
Poverty resulting from the war will even make recruiting easier.
The only hope would be a reaction from the oligarchy or some other influential people with enough common sens. But it's a very small hope given the atmosphere currently in Russia.
This article from Reuters suggests that the price of oil may keep Russia financially able to fund the the war despite the halving of the national wealth fund ,it could be understandable that Ukraine targets the refineries and depots of such but adversely put up the price of oil
.
Conversely the E.U still needs Russian crude which subsidises Russia certainly Ukraine still allows a pipeline from Russia that goes through its territory to supply gas and oil
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Conversely the E.U still needs Russian crude which subsidises Russia certainly Ukraine still allows a pipeline from Russia that goes through its territory to supply gas and oil
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,211
The front lines are moving but no more then usual. In Kharkov Russia is counter-attacking, Russia is losing some ground, but mostly holding for now. Around Seversk Russia is still gaining ground, same thing for Chasov Yar, and the Netaylovo-Ocheretino area. I won't have time to do a proper update until either Sunday or more likely Monday, so if you're hungry for the details in real time, I point you to Suriyakmaps and Kalibrated. Nothing drastic is happening yet, the biggest piece of excitement is a Russian attack out of Mayorskoe north-west of Gorlovka. While many are talking about this being an attack towards Toretsk, this is only sort of true. It's an attack near the canal, and could very well be a supporting effort for the fighting around Chasov Yar. It is somewhat geographically removed from that area and of course with Ukrainian reserves stretched thin, it will be hard to send any there but at least so far it doesn't look like any credible attack to take Toretsk, rather a supporting effort south of the Chasov Yar-Klescheevka-Andreevka area.
www.google.com
t.me
Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps
Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.
www.google.com
Suriyakmaps
Syria-Irak-Yemen-Libya-Sahel-Gaza-Ukraine maps Follow and support us there: http://bio.link/suriyakm Buy ads: https://telega.io/c/Suriyak_maps
t.me
Ananda
The Bunker Group
If this consistently put as policy there are two consequences that personally I believe can happen:
1. The Allies that's already order can cancel the order base on the availability of supplies. This already happened when Russian invasion begin to certain Russian customers (Regardless CAATSA). This can provide new order toward MBDA and even ROK. At this moment there's momentum in the market for KSAM order.
2. Potential that the order actually goes to US inventory, as current US inventories to goes to Ukraine. Thus the order means as replacement. However this also means degrenating US own AD capabilities.
Don't think this is going to bode well with the Republican. If they take over white house, they can change the policy right away. This also won't bode well with supply to Ukrainian if that happens.
U.S. Diverting Missiles From Foreign Customers To Ukraine Could Have Repercussions Beyond Air Defense
The bold move to divert missiles planned to foreign buyers is great for Ukraine, but it may not be viewed as positively by some customers.
www.twz.com
Just seems to me this is another half cook idea that being put by White House. Patriot missiles is one thing, but diverting AMRAAM, that's can potentially become much more significant for US Allies and Customers.
One thing for sure, this is also acknowledgement by US or Brussels, that Russian MIC production are exceeding their early expectations. Especially expectations on the effectiveness of their sanctions toward Russian economies and production level.
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Dead Money
Member
That is interesting. If I'm understanding the dates on the contracts, Lot 35 should have finished last month, so these would be Lot 36 production AMRAAM? US DoD Contracts August 30 2022
If this consistently put as policy there are two consequences that personally I believe can happen:
1. The Allies that's already order can cancel the order base on the availability of supplies. This already happened when Russian invasion begin to certain Russian customers (Regardless CAATSA). This can provide new order toward MBDA and even ROK. At this moment there's momentum in the market for KSAM order.
2. Potential that the order actually goes to US inventory, as current US inventories to goes to Ukraine. Thus the order means as replacement. However this also means degrenating US own AD capabilities.
Don't think this is going to bode well with the Republican. If they take over white house, they can change the policy right away. This also won't bode well with supply to Ukrainian if that happens.
U.S. Diverting Missiles From Foreign Customers To Ukraine Could Have Repercussions Beyond Air Defense
The bold move to divert missiles planned to foreign buyers is great for Ukraine, but it may not be viewed as positively by some customers.
Just seems to me this is another half cook idea that being put by White House. Patriot missiles is one thing, but diverting AMRAAM, that's can potentially become much more significant for US Allies and Customers.
One thing for sure, this is also acknowledgement by US or Brussels, that Russian MIC production are exceeding their early expectations. Especially expectations on the effectiveness of their sanctions toward Russian economies and production level.
58% of value for US needs, 42% of value to foreign customers:
Australia, Bahrain, Bulgaria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
I'd hope the war in Ukraine has been a wakeup call for most nations about the importance of either sovereign manufacturing capability, varied alternatives, or deep enough stockpiles. Nations moving further from reliance on strictly US MIC makes total sense even before this announcement.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
What I'm concern more is AMRAAM supplies. Too much reliance from US made fighters users with Raytheon AMRAAM. Not counting those who use Nasams system, which gaining popularity.
At least in Indonesia, Frenchie salesman already lobbying in MinDef (from what I heard) in convincing them with MBDA stable supplies, despites situation in Ukraine. No secret Dasault lobby try to secure more order for Rafale in the expense of US Fighters. This announcement just make other customers become more apprehensive on getting US assets.
At least in Indonesia, Frenchie salesman already lobbying in MinDef (from what I heard) in convincing them with MBDA stable supplies, despites situation in Ukraine. No secret Dasault lobby try to secure more order for Rafale in the expense of US Fighters. This announcement just make other customers become more apprehensive on getting US assets.
Larry_L
Active Member
Fighter_bomber is bragging about the first use of the 3000kg glide bomb in Liptsy.
t.me
I am pasting a google translate of the post since this is in Russian.
Quote: "Oh okay. I'll post it now. ) Today in the village Liptsy, Kharkov region, a benefit performance of FAB-3000 M-54 with UMPC took place. The first combat target was a 3-storey building used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a PVD. (Temporary Deployment Point) A direct hit into the house, as most ordinary people and infantry commanders would have liked, did not work out, but you need to understand that: - firstly, this is the first combat use in the history of mankind of a bomb of this caliber with a UMPC. - the deflection of the bomb is purely on course, ten meters. This is an excellent result even for a guided munition, since the reference radius of continuous damage for the FAB-3000 is 230 meters, and fragments retain their destructive power at a range of 1240 meters. Well, here, of course, there is one bomb, but you can throw, for example, 10 of them. Therefore, I think that everyone involved in creating, essentially from scratch, a new UMPC that has no analogues in terms of power in just a couple of months should certainly be encouraged. Well, I’ve already written everything about the necessity and effectiveness of this caliber earlier, but I certainly have something to add. But more on that later. Today we rejoice for our twilight geniuses, testers, drones, PANs and everyone involved in this historical event. crests! As usual, we provide individuals for examination! Glory to VKS! "
Fighterbomber
Ой ладно. Сейчас выложу. ) Сегодня в н.п. Липцы Харьковской области состоялся бенефис ФАБ-3000 М-54 с УМПК. В качестве первой боевой цели был выбран 3х этажный дом используемый ВСУ как ПВД. (Пункт Временной Дислокации) Прямого попадания в дом, как хотелось бы большинству обывателей и пехотных...
t.me
I am pasting a google translate of the post since this is in Russian.
Quote: "Oh okay. I'll post it now. ) Today in the village Liptsy, Kharkov region, a benefit performance of FAB-3000 M-54 with UMPC took place. The first combat target was a 3-storey building used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a PVD. (Temporary Deployment Point) A direct hit into the house, as most ordinary people and infantry commanders would have liked, did not work out, but you need to understand that: - firstly, this is the first combat use in the history of mankind of a bomb of this caliber with a UMPC. - the deflection of the bomb is purely on course, ten meters. This is an excellent result even for a guided munition, since the reference radius of continuous damage for the FAB-3000 is 230 meters, and fragments retain their destructive power at a range of 1240 meters. Well, here, of course, there is one bomb, but you can throw, for example, 10 of them. Therefore, I think that everyone involved in creating, essentially from scratch, a new UMPC that has no analogues in terms of power in just a couple of months should certainly be encouraged. Well, I’ve already written everything about the necessity and effectiveness of this caliber earlier, but I certainly have something to add. But more on that later. Today we rejoice for our twilight geniuses, testers, drones, PANs and everyone involved in this historical event. crests! As usual, we provide individuals for examination! Glory to VKS! "
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,216
Did you read his other comments about the use of FAB-3000s? He doesn't stike me as a fan of the type.Fighter_bomber is bragging about the first use of the 3000kg glide bomb in Liptsy.
Fighterbomber
Ой ладно. Сейчас выложу. ) Сегодня в н.п. Липцы Харьковской области состоялся бенефис ФАБ-3000 М-54 с УМПК. В качестве первой боевой цели был выбран 3х этажный дом используемый ВСУ как ПВД. (Пункт Временной Дислокации) Прямого попадания в дом, как хотелось бы большинству обывателей и пехотных...
I am pasting a google translate of the post since this is in Russian.
Quote: "Oh okay. I'll post it now. ) Today in the village Liptsy, Kharkov region, a benefit performance of FAB-3000 M-54 with UMPC took place. The first combat target was a 3-storey building used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a PVD. (Temporary Deployment Point) A direct hit into the house, as most ordinary people and infantry commanders would have liked, did not work out, but you need to understand that: - firstly, this is the first combat use in the history of mankind of a bomb of this caliber with a UMPC. - the deflection of the bomb is purely on course, ten meters. This is an excellent result even for a guided munition, since the reference radius of continuous damage for the FAB-3000 is 230 meters, and fragments retain their destructive power at a range of 1240 meters. Well, here, of course, there is one bomb, but you can throw, for example, 10 of them. Therefore, I think that everyone involved in creating, essentially from scratch, a new UMPC that has no analogues in terms of power in just a couple of months should certainly be encouraged. Well, I’ve already written everything about the necessity and effectiveness of this caliber earlier, but I certainly have something to add. But more on that later. Today we rejoice for our twilight geniuses, testers, drones, PANs and everyone involved in this historical event. crests! As usual, we provide individuals for examination! Glory to VKS! "
"Insider information from Liptsi which has the honor of being the testing groud for the UMPK FAB-3000 M-54.
The wall of the house from the side opposite the explosion went into the hangar. But people [he used an intrasnaltable expletive that refers to complainers - F.] don't see that as enough and demand a direct hit. Practice shows, that those on the couch always state it's not enough. Those who sit in houses like this one for them it's quite enough.
March 22nd I wrote my opinion about the un-necessity of UMPK in this caliber in a modern war. The next day a decision was made to produce UMPK for this bomb. Designers of the aircraft, the UPMK, quickly created a glider for this bomb and married it to the Su-34. But no miracle happened. And an Su-34 can't carry more then one of these bombs. Considering that it wasn't designed to carry this munition at all this is a wonderful outcome.
So the customers
This is considering that the same plane can without any problems yesterday carry three FAB-1500M54 with UMPK.
Yes he will be heavy, andhe won't be able to maneuver, but it's unlikely he will dodge a missile with a 3000. Comparing the effectiveness for three 1500s with one 3000 is for idiots. Even two 1500s have twice the chance of striking the target. Even in a slide show one 3000 loses to three 1500s.
Why don't we carry three 1500s? There is no intelligent explanation. Likely from the same area as to why helos and dive bombers lob missiles with a pair of not fully loaded pods instead of 4-6. And why Su-34s used to fly with a pair of UMPKs instead of 4.
I hope common sense prevails. Right now there will be a wave of awards for those involved in the creation of this new miracle weapon. They'll hand out a couple of heroes, calm down, and stop wasting time [another intranslatable expletive that means wasting time - F.].
The era of UMPK with cheap satellite guidance is eding. EW wins. Accuracy is droping. For some time they will compensate with greater power of munitions and more bombs in a volley, but this is a path to the toilet. Sawing UMPKs with lasers and TV guidance is pointless because then you might as well manufacture missiles, especially since we're approaching a breakthrough in this area. Yes, yes. To replace the UMPK, in secret underground factories, dark geniuses are already sawing new wonder weapons. And they will be carried by the main combat jet of the SMO - Su-34."
EDIT: When he says production of the type stopped, I think he means in the past. Currently production just started and there's no indication it's stopped or going to stop. I also think some of this is tongue in cheek but I'm not sure if my translation does it justice.
Larry_L
Active Member
I just finished reading further. I miss so much due to idioms, and other issues of translation. I think his favorite bomb is the fab 500 from what I read. Apparently they have also dropped another of these "heavies". The intent is probably shock and awe rather than efficiency. The result being in the political arena rather than in the field, although fear, at that level will also be effective.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,218
I mean, the FAB-500 UMPK has been a game changer for the VVS even more so then the Kh-38 family. It's a very cheap munition that Russia can drop at a sustainable rate of quadruple digits per month. Prior to that they were mostly not in the fight, strategic aviation aside. Now they're doing quite a bit of work. So it's not surprising that he's a fan of the type. The UMPK was one of the wisest (maybe even the wisest) choices Russia made for defense procurement in this entire war. I'm more curious about what he says on the role of EW and bomb accuracy. Over the past 6 months we've similar comments about the accuracy of western guided weapons provided to Ukraine. Now it appears Ukraine has borrowed a page from Russia's playbook. I'm curious to see if his prediction is correct and we see a drop off in the accuracy rates of UMPKs to the point where Russia will limit their use, or if Russia does start to opt for TV and laser guidance. Or maybe the future will be mass-produced Kh-38s with combined guidance. One thing I can't help but wonder about is why Ukrainian EW isn't an instant magnet for Russian strikes. We see regular footage of it getting hit, but apparently its effective enough to be a major obstacle. It's possible Russia still has issues with the speed at which they are able to make a decision to hit a target.
Larry_L
Active Member
I know little about this. Naturally it depends on release velocity, weight, and release altitude. It has been widely reported that the FAB 500 has a range of 70 km. I think I read fighter_bomber saying the fab 3000 range was 10 km. That is quite a difference from the 500.
Ukraine war: Russia’s devastating use of Soviet-era ‘glide bombs’ shows how urgently Kyiv needs air defence systems
Russia is putting wings and guidance systems on old ‘iron bombs’ and using them to pound Ukraine’s cities.
theconversation.com
The fab 1500 is stated to have a maximum range of 25 miles. (40km)
Quote: A Sukhoi crew may need to pile on the thrust to toss a FAB-1500M-54-UGCM out to its theoretical maximum range of 25 miles or so.
Russia’s Got A Giant New Glide-Bomb
The Russians’ new glide-bomb is big. Really big. And not for no reason: a bigger bomb doesn’t need to be so accurate.
www.forbes.com