The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vikingatespam · Jun 5, 2024

Fredled said:
I don't believe that Russia has destroyed all their stocks or laboratories able to producing chemical weapons. But true chemical weapons (not the tear gaz they dropped from quadcopters over Ukrainian trenches) is for them, like nukes: means of last resort. They don't want to make bad advertising by using them. Putin still wants to show that the Special War Operation is conventional and under control.

Color me suspicious in thinking the RU are holding back some Tabun/GB/whatever. However, they have disposed of the vast majority. Would they use arms that they claimed to have destroyed ? I would guess not, under the current conditions - too much international blowback.

Feanor · Jun 5, 2024

Fredled said:
So, why aren't they shooting them down routinely?
IMHO, it's because they can't. Not because they don;t care, or because they don't want to escalate.

You have a very strange view of this. NATO and Russia recon aircraft of various types routinely fly over international waters in airspace that no country controls. This is normal. You normally aren't allowed to just shoot down those aircraft. This is not unusual and western aircraft routinely operate relatively close to Russian airspace. Many of these aircraft are slow and relatively easy targets, and there is nothing particularly difficult from a practical standpoint in shooting down something like an RQ-4B. A Russian Su-27 or anything from that family could relatively easily pull up to it, and simply knock it apart with cannon fire. A number of air to air missiles could also do the trick. This is clearly not a case of inability. As to not caring, the damage Ukraine has done to Russian forces using western ISR data is vast. While we don't have much direct evidence, it would be very strange if Russia didn't care. It's pretty clear they do, they knocked down an RQ-4B last year by dumping fuel on it, damaging it's propeller. In other words, they didn't even need to engage it with weapons. This leaves your last option as the only possible explanation. Up until now Russia has chosen not to escalate the confrontation with the west over Ukraine. The concern expressed by Kip Potapych is that now that western missiles are being used to strike Russia, they may be more willing to escalate. I understand that there are some who think war with Russia is either inevitable (something I think is completely untrue and frankly a willful selfdelusion) or desirable. But for everyone else, a war between Russia and NATO is seen as a bad thing for all involved. There are lot of major western cities in range of Russian tactical nukes. Russia of course would face an existential threat in a war with NATO, defeat could lead to the utter collapse of the current Russian Federation as a country. So both sides have much to lose. For people who take this view events that seem to bring countries closer to such a confrontation are seen as undesirable. Your view that Russia simply magically can't do anything is bizarre to say the least. There are things Russia can do and there are things the west can do to Russia. If things go down in the worst way, the death toll could be vast, and the destruction large scale and lasting. This is a valid concern. What direction events take remains to be seen, but these dangers are real and pretending otherwise is willful ignorance.

Fredled said:
Yes and no. They can change their targets. But their means for a large attack, like dozens of missiles at one time, are limited. If they want to make a retaliation which will cause important damage, and have a potential political impact, to a NATO site or country, they will be forced to divert some capabilities from the Ukrainian theatre.

It really depends on what form the escalation takes and how it plays out. A confrontation with NATO can go along many different paths. For example using some Su-27s to intercept all NATO UAVs flying within 100kms of Russia and downing them wouldn't really divert resources from Ukraine. There are also accounts that suggest Russian missile arsenals are actually larger now then they were pre-war. I don't know what to make of this, it's certainly not impossible, but reliable information is hard to come by. It's possible that Russian strikes on Ukraine are limited not by their ability to get munitions, but by their ability to identify targets worth striking. I.e. the weakness is not supply of missiles, what everyone keeps talking about, but ISR. In other words there might be piles of missiles they could expend in a snowball fight with NATO, without necessarily detracting from their campaign in Ukraine.

Ben Dhyani · Jun 5, 2024

Putin has given an interview to senior news leaders of international news agencies, including The Associated Press, lasting for more than three hours.

Putin warns that Russia could provide long-range weapons to others to strike Western targets | AP News

Ananda · Jun 5, 2024

Wondering how US politics will react if Putin send 300 km Cruise Missiles or SSM to Cuba. Just enough to cover Florida, especially Mar de Lago Country Club.

Sandhi Yudha · Jun 6, 2024

Ananda said:
Wondering how US politics will react if Putin send 300 km Cruise Missiles or SSM to Cuba. Just enough to cover Florida, especially Mar de Lago Country Club.

Sorry, but the shortest distance (air line) between Cuba and Fort-lauderdale is more than 463 km, so we need something better, like the 3M55 Oniks, Kh-65 or Iskander M. Or maybe long range balloons with propaganda material like the Koreans are doing from both sides.

KipPotapych · Jun 6, 2024

I just listened to the last episode of In Moscow’s Shadows by Mark Galeotti. I would recommend it to others, specifically 12 minutes, from 11:00 to 23:00, of the podcast, as related to my previous post in regard to escalation and whatnot:

In Moscow's Shadows 149: Dyumin, Deterrence and a Deputy - In Moscow's Shadows

An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anyth...

inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com

Maybe I am not as crazy as it appears.

P. S. Anyone who has time and interest in the subject of Russia would benefit from following the guy’s podcasts (here), in my opinion. He has some excellent books on the subject as well and I believe I recommended at least one of them here previously - A Short History of Russia, which is short but still a great (and easy) read.

Edit: Re sabotage, France arrested a “Russian-Ukrainian” individual who appears to have exploded himself while building a bomb:

France's domestic intelligence agency has detained a 26-year-old Russian-Ukrainian man on suspicion of planning a violent act after he injured himself in an explosion, the National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor's Office (PNAT) said on Wednesday, June 5.

The man was treated by a fire brigade on Monday evening "when he suffered serious burns following an explosion," said the prosecutors. "Products and materials intended to manufacture explosive devices" have been found at his hotel room, the PNAT said. "One of these devices had exploded," the prosecutors said.[…]

France detains Russian-Ukrainian man in possession of explosives

'Products and materials intended to manufacture explosive devices' were found in his hotel room near Paris' Charles de Gaulle airport, said France's anti-terrorism prosecutor's office, which is investigating the case.

www.lemonde.fr

Other sources suggest the guy is originally from Donbas and fought on the pro-Russian side for some time.

Fredled · Jun 6, 2024

Feanor said:
As to not caring, the damage Ukraine has done to Russian forces using western ISR data is vast. While we don't have much direct evidence, it would be very strange if Russia didn't care.

If they care and have the means to shoot them down, they should do it because they are at war. Either US drone are too far to pose a treath to Russuans or too far to be intercepted by Russiams. Shooting drones doesn't have any consequence. That they don't shoot US drones coming to spy them on behalf of Ukrainians because they are in over international waters doesn't make sens. But if they are over international waters, they are probably too far to spy on them.

Feanor said:
I understand that there are some who think war with Russia is either inevitable (something I think is completely untrue and frankly a willful selfdelusion) or desirable.

I don't remember a single politician, neither form the west nor from Russia or anywhere else, expressing the opinion that war between the two blocks was desirable or inevitable.
Some commentators say that NATO is drawing us slowly to WW3 but I don't think so.
There is a saying: "Ukraine must win but Russia cannot lose." Meaning we want Ukraine to win but without direct confrontation with Russia.

In Russia, state media don;t say that war is inevitable, they say that NATO is preparing to assault Russia in a few months (but never less than 6 months from the time they say that). And the Russian people believe it. Maybe the political leadership believe it too.
And because they believe that a major attack or even an invasion is almost imminent, that everything happening in Ukraine is only a preparation for that future agression on Russia, the use of our weapon to strike inside Russia is an extremely sensitive matter. It should be clearly within the context of the defence of Ukraine.

Feanor said:
Your view that Russia simply magically can't do anything is bizarre to say the least.

Not as bizarre as their threat to give long range missile to countries ... which are supplying Russia with these missules.
(IMO, there should be a lot of rolling eyes in western chancelleries.)

Feanor said:
For example using some Su-27s to intercept all NATO UAVs flying within 100kms of Russia and downing them wouldn't really divert resources from Ukraine.

Yes, but that wouldn't be understood as a retaliation. It's too insignificant.

Feanor said:
There are also accounts that suggest Russian missile arsenals are actually larger now then they were pre-war. I don't know what to make of this, it's certainly not impossible, but reliable information is hard to come by. It's possible that Russian strikes on Ukraine are limited not by their ability to get munitions, but by their ability to identify targets worth striking.

They certainly keep a few hundreds of missiles as a strategic reserve because their military doctrine tell them to be prepared for an all-out assault by NATO. And they could use these stocks to strike NATO if they think that the say assault is imminent according to the recent developments in Ukraine. But in their mind, it would mean that WW3 has started, Not that that they retaliated for a decision by western leaders.

Russians may not know what to strike anymore in Ukraine. But they strike nonetheless.

Ananda said:
Wondering how US politics will react if Putin send 300 km Cruise Missiles or SSM to Cuba.

Yes but Putin talked of countries or tribes that would strike US interrests. Cuba would not strike the US or US assets.

But the Mar e-Lago being within range is a good point.

KipPotapych said:
France arrested a “Russian-Ukrainian” individual who appears to have exploded himself while building a bomb

I read that he just burned himself. IMO not a professional.

Fredled · Jun 6, 2024

Breaking News: Macron announces the delivery of Mirage 2000-5 to Ukraine by the end of the year.
(I just heard it in his interview, in french. Link in english will folllow.)

seaspear · Jun 6, 2024

This article states the sale of these aircraft to Ukraine with training and will match the numbers of f-16,s given?

France to provide Ukraine with its Mirage combat aircraft

French President Emmanuel Macron said Ukraine should be allowed to use weapons provided by its Western allies to fend off Russian attacks. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

.

France To Supply Mirage 2000-5 Combat Aircraft To Ukraine

Macron has announced plans to supply Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine and facilitate the training of Ukrainian fighter pilots in France. An unspecified

theaviationist.com

KipPotapych · Jun 6, 2024

This has been ongoing for a long time now. Last September Ukraine rejected these aircraft as obsolete for their purpose:

In the spokesperson's opinion, transferring Mirage 2000 aircraft would not be a rational decision, and mastering them would only drain Ukraine's aviation resources.

"Therefore, we cannot afford to take everything from the aviation inventory today. It's not rational. It will simply exhaust our personnel. We need to focus on one, at most, two types of multi-role aircraft capable of performing the tasks I mentioned. Mirage 2000 is an outdated model, and France has much better aircraft, as does Europe. So, we are considering the aircraft we have been talking about," Ignat emphasized.

French Mirage 2000 aircraft are not option for Ukraine - Spokesperson of Air Forces explains

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 831: Situation on northeaster front: From Chuhuiv axis the situation inside Vovchansk is fluid and confused, the Volchansky agregatny zavod factory could not be held by the Russians while from the south it seems that Ukrainian troops continue to resist. On the other...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Слобожанское направление: тяжелые бои в Волчанске и неудачные контратаки ВСУ обстановка к исходу 3 июня 2024 года В течение последних дней на Слобожанском направлении сохраняется напряженная обстановка. Украинские формирования регулярно контратакуют и не оставляют попыток снизить боевой...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/06/03/20240603223334-a02ec1b6.jpg

Russia's destruction of Ukrainian vehicles on this front continues. I suspect a combination of mass use of loitering munitions coupled with the Ukrainian reinforcements moving into the area are contributing to the losses. We have 1 destroyed P-18ML radar, 3 Osa-AKM SAMs, 1 Biber or MTU-72 bridgelayer, 2 T-72s, 2 Strykers (1 hit while on a mechanized bridge crossing, the other alleged, hard to make out), 1 Buk-M1 (maybe FrankenSAM), 1 alleged ARV (type unclear), 1 alleged D-30 (some sort of artillery piece but unclear, might be a decoy) 1 supply truck carrying something very explosive, and 1 trailer with two armored cars on it.

Рубрика от Ледка

П-18МЛ - уничтожена У н.п Курулька Харьковской области. Геопривязка LA: (48.937159, 37.297194) Ракетный удар ПКР Х-35 по РЛС обнаружения (П-18) ВСУ Источник ; №2

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

9А33БМ3 - поражена У с. Шевчеково Харьковской области. Удар БпЛA Х-51 ГрВ «N» по боевой машине (БМ) комплекс 9К33М3 Оса-АКМ Источник ; №2 #Ланцет

t.me

Colonelcassad

Поражение барражирующим боеприпасом "Ланцет" немецкого танкового мостоукладчика "Biber" ("Beaver"), используемого ВСУ для наведения переправы через р. Волчья и переброски снабжения в северную часть Волчанска. Всего на данный момент Германия передала ВСУ 19 мостоукладчиков данного типа. Видео...

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Военный Осведомитель

Уничтожение дроном-камикадзе «Ланцет» танка Т-72 ВСУ в районе населённого пункта Русская Лозовая Харьковской области. Как обычно, техника противника отслеживалась дроном с тепловизором вплоть до ухода в укрытие, куда и был направлен «Ланцет», устроивший танку возгорание боекомплекта. Видео...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Группировка "Север" продолжает массово уничтожать технику врага на Харьковском направлении ▪️В районе н.п. Русская Лозовая танк Т-72 ВСУ попытался укрыться в лесополосе вдоль оживленной трассы, но был обнаружен и уничтожен "Ланцетом". ▪️В Волчанске сорвана очередная попытка противника...

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Уничтожение "Ланцетом" очередной украинской РЛС П-18МЛ. Радиолокатор находился на старой оборудованной позиции ПВО между селами Старая Богдановка и Новобогдановка в Николаевой области недалеко от побережья Днепра. Это уже не первый раз, когда противник использует ранее уже пораженные позиции...

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‼️‍☠️Враг продолжают отчаянные попытки наладить снабжение своей группировки на севере и в центре Волчанска ▪️"Иксоводы" группировки войск "Север" не дали ВСУ навести очередную переправу через реку Волчья. Точным ударом "Ланцета" уничтожен мостоукладчик МТУ-72, а для закрепления результата...

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The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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