The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kharkov front.

Ukrainian reserves have been successfully concentrated in Kharkov region despite nasty losses from Russian interdiction efforts, and counter-attacks are now developing both inside Volchansk and towards Glubokoe out of Liptsi. Ukrainian counter-attacks at Glubokoe have been persistent and with losses. I believe we are seeing Russia's plan for the Kharkov offensive play out. It drew reserves, caused significant casualties, and tied Ukrainian forces into a meatgrinder battle, while Russian forces advance in other areas.


Ukrainian GBU-39B strikes on the factory in Volchansk.


Russian snipers operating in Volchansk.


Russian Mi-35M operations in support of battlegroup North. Note the typical low-effectiveness rocket lobbing.


Ukrainian BTR-4E counterattacking near Glubokoe hit a landmine and was finished off by a Lancet strike.


Russian Lancet drone hits a group of Ukrainian infantry in Volchansk.


Two Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian light armor vehicles in and around Volchansk.


Ukrainian T-64 hit near Liptsi.


AN/TPQ-36 hit, Kharkov region.


Allegedly a Ukrainian D-20 getting hit near Volchansk. It could easily be a decoy though, we don't see it firing, and we don't see secondaries.


Allegedly a Ukrainian 120mm mortar team getting hit near Liptsi.


Allegedly a Ukrainian PzH-2000 hit by a Lancet. Note, we definitely see a cannon firing, but can't tell what it is. There's also not much of an explosion when the strike hits. So if it was a PzH-2000 it probably survived.


Allegedly an FH-70 hit in Kharkov region. We can't really see what they hit, but it definitely burns.


Allegedly a HIMARS getting hit in Kharkov region. It's hard to make out but there are two vehicles and the area they hid in definitely gets hit though the outcome is unclear.


Bochkovo Kharkov region, Ukraine set up a crossing over the Volchya region, and Russia hit it just as some vehicles were crossing.


Russian bombs and thermobaric rockets falling on Volchansk. The town is basically destroyed.


Russia has been hitting Kharkov with gliding bombs, one of the targets was the police hospital.


Russia's 3rd documented FAB-3000 strike, this one in Volchansk.


Ukraine has continued indiscriminate strikes against targets in Belgorod region. Targets include residential buildings in Belgorod and Shebekino.


Ukraine's 32nd Mech Bde with a D-44 cannon, near Kharkov. This is a WWII-era Soviet gun, even less useful then the venerable D-1s Russia used in some quantity at one point. These systems have been seen in Ukraine's 22nd Bde near Artemovsk/Bakhmut last year. It's unclear if these are the same ones or another batch.


Ukrainian forces have drastically stepped up construction of fortifications near Kharkov and Sumy.


Oskol front.


Near Kupyansk Russian forces have restarted the southward push in several areas, making minor gains.


Russian forces have gained chunks of territory east and north-east of Stepovaya Novoselka, solidifying their hold around the Kotlyarovka-Kislovka-Ivanovka area.


Russian forces have extended their salient in Karamzinovka area. It's unclear what the goal of this specific salient is, but there are several such very small and narrow salients push outwards on the Oskol front over the past couple of weeks. It could be laying the ground for a larger push on Stel'makhovka and Makeevka.


The back and forth pushes around Torskoe continue, Russian forces have regained in a gully second from the north, but lost some ground south of that.


Russian forces hit a Ukrainian crossing in Borovaya, technically Kharkov region, but on the Oskol front.


A Ukrainian Oto Melara mod. 56 105mm howitzer hit by a Russian bomb strike somewhere near Stel'makhovka.


Russian T-72B3 mod'22 from the 47th Tanks, and Msta-S from the 275th SP Howitzer Rgt Kupyansk area. Also a now rare T-90A, a T-72B3, and a D-30 from the 27th Motor-rifles, same area.


Seversk salient.

Russia is assaulting Razdolovka from two sides. Russian forces have pushed westward from Veseloe and the hills north of it, where fog of war has for some time obscured exactly what was going on. It's now clear the unconfirmed Russian advances are very much confirmed. Simultaneously Russian forces pushed north along the rail berm west of the village. Russian forces are also inside the village on the eastern side. Control over the rest of the village is unconfirmed however the village seems poised to fall. The situation around the Belogorovka mound remains somewhat unclear, some sources report Russian in control of the entire thing, others say the eastern summit. Some sources say Russia has all of Belogorovka itself, but this seems to be inaccurate. It will take some time to see. Lastly there are reported Russian agins in the trenches near Verkhokamyanskoe. This is a highground that overlooks the village.


Russian infantry on the western side of Razdolovka, by the rail line.


Chasov Yar.


Russian forces have continued to gain ground in and around the Canal neighborhood. Russian forces have again gained ground in Kalinovo and north of there. There are claims that Ukraine is pulling back slowly to the canal, but it's unclear if this is a sustainable position.


Ukrainian Kozak-7 hits a landmine near Chasov Yar. Two Ukrainian service members apparently survive.


Ukrainian T-64BV knocked out and abandoned near Chasov Yar.


A Ukrainian T-64BM Bulat destroyed on its trailer near Chasov Yar.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gorlovka area.

I'm now going to start this as a separate section. The attacks here are a bit unclear. They've taken the village of Shumi, and and pushing towards Druzhba. They're also fighting inside Pivnichnoe. This may be a real attempt to take Toretsk, this might be a secondary effort to support Chasov Yar attacks, but it's gotten relatively large, and Russia gained quite a bit of ground by the standards of this war. It remains to be seen how this develops. Information on other attacks west of Gorlovka is unconfirmed, and either the attacks failed or they didn't happen.


In a bit of irony, Ukrainian general Sodol' in charge of this section of the front was drinking in Odessa while Russia broke Ukrainian lines. He has now been removed from command. He will reportedly be replaced by Brigadier General Gnatov.


Ocheretino-Netaylovo area.


Russian forces have taken Novoaleksandrovka and Novoprokopovka, and are contesting Sokol. While in theory only one village (Vozdvizhenka) is left between them and the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road, in reality Russia needs to expand the flanks of the salient. Russian forces have expanded their area of control between Novoaleksandrovka and Sokol, have taken Yasnobrodovka (a particularly tiny village), and have gained some ground north of Novoaleksandrovka. Russian forces are also inching forward in Karlovka, and on the other side of the reservoire.


Russia hit a BMP-1 near Novoaleksandrovka.


Another Bradley burns near Sokol and another Abrams hit by a FPV drone.


Russian Tor-M2 near Avdeevka.


Russian mineclearing operations near Avdeevka.


Krasnogorovka-Mar'inka.

Russian forces have gained ground in the western side of Krasnogorovka, both north and south, and have gained some of the fields south of Georgievka.


Novomihailovka-Ugledar area.


Russian forces have gained ground along broad sections of the front south of Novomihailovka.


Another Leo-2A4 knocked out near Pobeda.


A Russian BMP-1 converted into an APC, with the turret removed and the troop compartment expanded, destroyed near Novomihailovka. Russia recently started trials of the BT-3 APC, based on a BMP-3 chassis and this is a good sign that it's necessary.


Zaporozhye front.


Russia continues to bite off pieces in the Rabotino salient. After the fall of the village itself Russian efforts seem to have slowed down, but fighting is still ongoing.


Russian gains around Staromayorskoe and Urozhaynoe.


Allegedly a Ukrainian L119 getting hit near the former Vremyevskiy bulge. There's a cannon firing, but we can't tell what it is.


Russia hits Ukrainian construction equipment near Pologi, Zaporozhye, setting up dragon teeth.


Allegedly a strike in Gulyaypole on a staging area of the 102nd TerDefBde.


Russian strike on storage in Vozdvizhenka, Zaporozhye.


Reportedly Ukraine's deputy commander of the 117th Mech Bde was killed in a Russian strike on an HQ.


Crimea/Black Sea.

There was a major Ukrainian ATACMS strike on Crimea. Russia reports downing 5 missile, and another missile exploding over a beach, wounding over a hundred people and killing several. Russia is blaming Ukraine but personally I suspect it's an unlucky intercept that caused the missile to explode over the beach. I won't post links as there is some graphic material, the incident is well covered and you can find the news stories yourself. I don't think this strike is particularly remarkable, we've seen incidents like this before.

During the recent attack on Crimea Russia lost a Ka-29 helo. It was involved in hunting unmanned boats. It's unclear how it was lost. The type is old, so it could be a technical issue, it could be friendly fire, and it could be Ukrainian missiles.


Ukraine launching 8 ATACMS towards Crimea. This might be volley involved in the strike above.


Strikes.

Russia hit two more P-18s with Kh-35s.


Russia hit an IRIS-T position near Krivoy Rog but it might be a decoy.


Russia hit Ukrainian facilities in Odessa, but it's unclear what they hit.


Russia hit two hardened air shelters in Starokonstantinov, results are unclear. Russia also hit Mirgorod airfield in Poltava, with unclear results. Recently Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian airfields, possibly trying to destroy the infrastructure prior to the arrival of F-16s.


There are reports Russia used Iranian Arash drones in a recent strike.


A Russian fuel storage facility was hit in Azov, and the fire took quite some time to put out. They also hit a fuel storage facility in Tambov region and Adigeya.


There are reports that Russia has copied Ukraine's approach to rapidly relocating planes when Ukrainian strikes commence. This explains the lack of planes hit at Mozdok. Reportedly the recently crashed Russian Su-34 in the Caucases area was due to this.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

A video of allegedly a Ukrainian soldier attempting to surrender and getting killed by a drone strike. This is the fourth such report I see, though I don't consider the video as confirmation, we don't see enough. I'm posting it here for recordkeeping,


A interesting look at a Ukrainian PzH-2000 whose IGEL armor protected it.


There are reports of Russian gains on the islands in the Dnepr, likely a result of Ukrainian forces pulling back.


First link Russian Su-34 with 4 D-30 UMPB munitions. These munitions can be used on either Tornado-S MLRS or on planes. These might be replacing the UMPK as Russia's go-to munition. Second link is an Su-34 with 4 UMPKs, illustrating what FighterBomber was talking about.


Russian soldiers dig a Ukrainian FPV drone out of their drone netting. Note the Ratnik tanker helmet on one of them.


A Russian military truck has been spotted with a new tactical marking. Sumy next?


Russian 56th VDV Rgt shows off a Desertcross with a twin-PKM AA mount, presumably meant for drones.


Ukraine's 24th Mech Bde riding a T-64BV with new EW, and a captured BTR-82A with the turret removed (likely due to damage) and replaced with a ZU-23-2.


The antiquated Madsen LMG has shown up in Ukraine.


Old US 105mm shells in Ukraine.


Ukraine's joint venture with Rheinmetall repairing/maintaining Marders and Leo-1s. Location unclear.


Ukraine will reportedly get 100 OSKAR loitering munitions from France.


Reportedly Ukraine has gotten a Hawkeye 105mm howitzer prototype to test.


Dutch M109s have shown up in Ukraine.


Romania will reportedly hand over their Patriot battery to Ukraine.


Now it appears F-16s meant for Ukraine will be based in Ukraine.


Ukraine has reportedly formed police support volunteer squads to assist in the mobilization efforts. They appear to be staffed by private security firms, and in some cases have gotten into fights among themselves. This might explain some of the ugly behaviors we've seen recently.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Is there any idea of how the attack on the Russian deep space radar attacked in Crimea will impact its abilities
certainly this attack looks likely to have set backs for Russian advanced weaponry research
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is there any idea of how the attack on the Russian deep space radar attacked in Crimea will impact its abilities
If I understand correctly the object in question is barely functioning, and they caused a grass fire. I believe it's one of the unsuccessful Ukrainian drone strikes I left out of my updates because there are too many.

certainly this attack looks likely to have set backs for Russian advanced weaponry research
Yes, it was a nasty one. The impact remains to be seen.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
This article on the space radar targeted uses satellite images in its claims many of the attacked structure were new and not a grass fire
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This article on the space radar targeted uses satellite images in its claims many of the attacked structure were new and not a grass fire
Good video, thanks for sharing. Perhaps they did do damage, it would be interesting to know how much. The imagery is pretty bad, and it's a noteworthy location. I suspect we'll get better footage eventually.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
@Feanor, so what happened with the US drone and Mig-31 over the Black Sea? Whatever FB has reported. Sorry, I listened and read, but do not fully understand what he is talking about.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor, so what happened with the US drone and Mig-31 over the Black Sea? Whatever FB has reported. Sorry, I listened and read, but do not fully understand what he is talking about.

It was a Ukrainian defector pilot who shot it down using an R-37MMM missile. The Global Hawk pilot and crew parachuted to safety in the Black Sea but were eaten alive by carnivorous trained Russian battle squids. No word on whether an ICC warrant has been issued for the squids.

Jokes aside, completely unconfirmed at this time. So far I've evidence of any kind, just a lot of excitement on the internet. FB is the only credible source who seems to confirm this, but so far it's questionable at best.

EDIT: I just did a quick check and FB is backing off of the idea that it was downed. Apparently there was a high-speed fly-by that may or may not have resulted in the UAV aborting its mission.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Thanks. That’s what I understood as well, but I fail to see the significance. Does a flyby like that affects Hawk’s operations? This surely wasn’t the first one. FB also said that the pilot was presented some kind of a medal for it. I am having difficulties understanding the significance, beyond a signal.


In other news, there were reports that North Korea is planning to send some troops to Donetsk, an engineering unit. First I heard of it was from this Kiev Post article:


Not sure for what purpose. If true, I am assuming they would be coming for demining ops in the rear? No idea. Sounds strange.

A good review of the Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region (from this tweet):


There have been reports (including the post above) and satellite images of Russians digging fortification in the areas they occupied in the north. Ukrainians have hit quite a few excavators and some cranes with FPVs and other means. This, now deleted tweet (no idea why - it had some photos), cited a number as high as 50, but I don’t buy it (pro-Ukrainian propaganda). This counter indicates 17 excavators destroyed as of June 24, which is quite a few and likely close to truth.

There were a few more articles recently on, what the Russians say about their media, “nuts being tightened” on reporting in Ukraine. Basically, it appears that the government now says (or very hard tries to) what should be reported (according to the reports, positive imaging of the government, military and war efforts, and negative stuff on the opposition, etc). This is in addition to a significant “self-censoring” that is elected by and imposed on the press. Journalists being threatened, sent to the front line, spied on by SBU, and so on. The western media outlets apparently have seen their media passes revoked (then reportedly restored) for undesirable and critical reports. Even the (state-run) Ukrinform has issues with what is happening (how crazy is that?).

Reporters for the state news agency, Ukrinform, which is supposed to be nonpartisan, received a list from their management late last year of opposition figures and local elected officials labeled “undesirable” for quoting in articles.

The New York Times reviewed the instructions to Ukrinform reporters, which blacklisted elected officials and civil society activists, including some military veterans.



The funny thing here is that the article actually excuses the efforts to control the media due to “behind-the-scenes political interference has a dark history because of abuse under previous governments.” Maybe they don’t want their passes to be revoked yet again, haha.

This article on the same subject is free to read, but lacks in the info department compared to the NYT one:


There were reports by the Ukrainian bloggers about a couple of Pantsirs taken out:



Some reports indicate that crews were killed in the strikes, while others indicate they all survived. Russia lost quite a few air defence assets in the past couple of months.

Interesting recent poll in Ukraine indicates that 52% of Ukrainians disagree with the current mobilization law (20% somewhat disagree and 32% strongly disagree). Note that the poll does not indicate why or how they disagree with it. At the same time, 58% of Ukrainians think that the government should not compromise in negotiations and should fight as long as necessary (down from 80% two years ago); 30% think otherwise. In opposition to the Russian propaganda, an overwhelming 70% of Ukrainians think that Zelensky should remain the president until the end of martial law.


If someone wants to give a listen to another Mark Galeotti’s “In Moscow’s shadows” podcast where he discusses another recent poll of the Ukrainian public, should do so here:


An interesting thing he notes is that those who support the “no compromise” clause are mainly those who cannot be drafted. Those who can think otherwise.

There are a few other things I want to mention and some I would like to discuss in greater detail, but I do not have much time lately. Just going over the open tabs here, really.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Israel and US in talks to deliver up to 8 recently withdrawn Patriot batteries to the US, and from there to Ukraine. They will need some refurb and modernization to bring them up to standard. These systems only utilized PAC-2 GEM-T interceptors, hence the Hebrew name "Ya'alom" / "Diamond".
This will bump Ukraine's number of operational batteries from 2 to 10.
I assume Israel will also transfer all interceptors. It's not known how many interceptors Israel has or how many launchers there are per battery. These questions are less relevant, honestly. The global supply of interceptors won't be affected by this. It'll still be a race between US and Russian production capacity. But Ukraine will be able to create additional defensive bubbles across greater areas.

It's difficult to quantify the value of these systems and their munitions, but it's possible Israel is transferring here equipment valued at between $5-10 billion.
Israel would likely make a few requests, considering it's also a not quite small loss of capability, especially under the massive aerial threat Israel currently faces. Hence the "talks". Yet even if the US ultimately doesn't give much in return, I don't see Israel denying the US these Patriot systems.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Israel and US in talks to deliver up to 8 recently withdrawn Patriot batteries to the US, and from there to Ukraine. They will need some refurb and modernization to bring them up to standard. These systems only utilized PAC-2 GEM-T interceptors, hence the Hebrew name "Ya'alom" / "Diamond".
This will bump Ukraine's number of operational batteries from 2 to 10.
I assume Israel will also transfer all interceptors. It's not known how many interceptors Israel has or how many launchers there are per battery. These questions are less relevant, honestly. The global supply of interceptors won't be affected by this. It'll still be a race between US and Russian production capacity. But Ukraine will be able to create additional defensive bubbles across greater areas.

It's difficult to quantify the value of these systems and their munitions, but it's possible Israel is transferring here equipment valued at between $5-10 billion.
Israel would likely make a few requests, considering it's also a not quite small loss of capability, especially under the massive aerial threat Israel currently faces. Hence the "talks". Yet even if the US ultimately doesn't give much in return, I don't see Israel denying the US these Patriot systems.

In my opinion Ukraine benefits far more from 8 older Patriot systems then 2 newer ones. On a side note, I don't think Ukraine has two complete operational batteries. Ukraine had two, one got hit, some replacements got delivered, and then one got hit again earlier this year, when they started trying to forward deploy SAMs. I suspect they have one complete and one partial battery.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
In my opinion Ukraine benefits far more from 8 older Patriot systems then 2 newer ones. On a side note, I don't think Ukraine has two complete operational batteries. Ukraine had two, one got hit, some replacements got delivered, and then one got hit again earlier this year, when they started trying to forward deploy SAMs. I suspect they have one complete and one partial battery.
There's already talk about repairing Patriot components on Ukrainian soil, and before that they were sent abroad for repairs so it's a temporary status at best.
Being PAC-2, these are primarily suited for defeating air-breathing targets such as aircraft. This could seriously affect, potentially nullify Russia's ability to drop precision guided glide bombs.
 

Feanor

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Staff member
There's already talk about repairing Patriot components on Ukrainian soil, and before that they were sent abroad for repairs so it's a temporary status at best.
It depends on the extent of the damage. There are some unknowns here. Last time they ate 3 RS-74s (i.e. Iskanders but air-launched). If we combine statements plus replacements, they got 4 replacement TELs, and iirc two TELs were claimed damaged but repairable by Ukrainian sources. In other words out of a battery of 8 TELs, 6 were out of commission, with only two fixable. The strike we saw near the front line involved two TELs and some sort of radar. It remains to be seen how many of them were damaged and to what state. Ukraine has also gotten all kinds of radars from other sources, raising questions about whether any of them can be made (or already are?) compatible with the Patriot.

Being PAC-2, these are primarily suited for defeating air-breathing targets such as aircraft. This could seriously affect, potentially nullify Russia's ability to drop precision guided glide bombs.
I don't think that's even remotely true. If they attempt to operate them in a mode where they are constantly turned on, those radars are going to be a magnet for Russian strikes fairly quickly. S-300s and Patriots operating near the front in an attempt to stop Russian gliding bomb strikes got hit hard and fast. How well would a single battery deal with a Tornado-S volley or two? Or several Iskanders? I suspect they're going to use them in SAM ambushes the way they have been using their current SAMs. Ukraine had dozens of equivalent-sized S-300 units but they couldn't move them close the front. And those systems were also a very credible threat to Russian jets. You can't win this fight on pure GBAD-centric defense. You would have to have something that can outfight Russia in the sky, and something that potentially take out Russian long range strike. So no more Tornado-S/Iskander strikes on your SAMs in volleys, and no more Russian jets regularly cruising near the front with Kh-31Ps.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I don't think that's even remotely true. If they attempt to operate them in a mode where they are constantly turned on, those radars are going to be a magnet for Russian strikes fairly quickly. S-300s and Patriots operating near the front in an attempt to stop Russian gliding bomb strikes got hit hard and fast. How well would a single battery deal with a Tornado-S volley or two? Or several Iskanders? I suspect they're going to use them in SAM ambushes the way they have been using their current SAMs. Ukraine had dozens of equivalent-sized S-300 units but they couldn't move them close the front. And those systems were also a very credible threat to Russian jets. You can't win this fight on pure GBAD-centric defense. You would have to have something that can outfight Russia in the sky, and something that potentially take out Russian long range strike. So no more Tornado-S/Iskander strikes on your SAMs in volleys, and no more Russian jets regularly cruising near the front with Kh-31Ps.
The early warning system could be aerial. That we will see when the F-16s arrive.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
I assume Israel will also transfer all interceptors. It's not known how many interceptors Israel has or how many launchers there are per battery. These questions are less relevant, honestly. The global supply of interceptors won't be affected by this. It'll still be a race between US and Russian production capacity. But Ukraine will be able to create additional defensive bubbles across greater areas.

My understanding that the vendor can manufacture about 600 interceptors a year, which are now mostly reserved for the US and UKR.

Adding even a few more batteries to the UKR inventory would be quite a boost, now that Romania and Germany promised another each.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The early warning system could be aerial. That we will see when the F-16s arrive.
Two Erieye-equipped SAAB 340s will arrive soon, donated by Sweden, which will rely on NATO allies for AEW until the Globaleyes it's ordered arrive. It's trying to speed up delivery of the first two, & will buy a third.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The early warning system could be aerial. That we will see when the F-16s arrive.
I don't think the issue is early warning. I think the issue is that the survivability of SAMs is limited against an opponent with comparable or better capabilities. What happens when a swam of Lancets shows up to say "hi" to all these new Patriots moved closer to the front line to prevent Russian PGM strikes?
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Italy is also likely to send the second of the SAMP T air defence system that performs in a similar way to Patriot
I'm not sure what the Ukraine doctrine is for deployment of advanced missile systems but you would think that adding plenty of cheap decoys and other cheaper gun systems designed to counter drones nearby would help protect them
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I don't think the issue is early warning. I think the issue is that the survivability of SAMs is limited against an opponent with comparable or better capabilities. What happens when a swam of Lancets shows up to say "hi" to all these new Patriots moved closer to the front line to prevent Russian PGM strikes?
It was in response to you saying Ukraine can't keep them emitting 24/7.

So far, given the circumstances, Ukraine managed to keep its Patriots relatively safe. Beyond my expectations at least. And advantages that either side can produce are a subject for a future debate. The only thing I can contribute to it right now is it seems Ukraine doesn't improve quickly enough in VSHORAD.
 
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