The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Vivendi · Jun 17, 2022

According to H I Sutton, Ukraine has hit and sunk a Russian tug boat: H I Sutton on Twitter: / Twitter

The type of missile used is not known -- could be Harpoon, which has already been delivered by both Denmark and the Netherlands. Could also be Ukrainian produced Neptune. In any case this is significant for a few reasons:

1. Ukraine has demonstrated that they have the capability to hit Russian ships more than once (they already sunk Moskva)
2. Tug boats is an important resource, perhaps in particular for Russia.
3. Snake island is strategically important. Hitting a tug boat that is used to help resupply Snake island is therefore important to Ukraine.

STURM · Jun 17, 2022

Vivendi said:
1. Ukraine has demonstrated that they have the capability to hit Russian ships more than once (they already sunk Moskva)

Which has led to Russian ships staying further away from the coast but the fact remains that the Russians are still there enforcing the blockade of the Ukrainian coast and whether the Ukrainians will be able to do anything about this really remains to be seen.

Vivendi said:
2. Tug boats is an important resource, perhaps in particular for Russia.

Indeed; an extremely vital resource but why ''in particular for Russia''?

Vivendi said:
3. Snake island is strategically important. Hitting a tug boat that is used to help resupply Snake island is therefore important to Ukraine.

Important and makes good headlines but ultimately are the Russians experiencing great difficulties in resupplying Snake Island; despite the losses they have suffered?

vikingatespam · Jun 17, 2022

While Snake Island is important enough to fight over it, its within range of a HIMARS system. Its potentially a cul-de-sac for the Russians.

STURM · Jun 17, 2022

vikingatespam said:
While Snake Island is important enough to fight over it, its within range of a HIMARS system. Its potentially a cul-de-sac for the Russians.

Ideally the Russians would abandon it but they can't because it's politically damaging. They have to hold onto it. As it stands they are still able to resupply what troops they have on it but this might change. On land things are slightly different; they are making slow progress but nonetheless are making progress in some areas. Just like how the Ukrainians showed great resourcefulness and innovation; the Russians too are learning and adapting.

Prior to the invasion most people underestimated the Ukrainians and overestimated the Russians; things might change in this regard; in reverse.

Feanor · Jun 17, 2022

Vivendi said:
According to H I Sutton, Ukraine has hit and sunk a Russian tug boat: H I Sutton on Twitter: / Twitter

The type of missile used is not known -- could be Harpoon, which has already been delivered by both Denmark and the Netherlands. Could also be Ukrainian produced Neptune. In any case this is significant for a few reasons:

1. Ukraine has demonstrated that they have the capability to hit Russian ships more than once (they already sunk Moskva)
2. Tug boats is an important resource, perhaps in particular for Russia.
3. Snake island is strategically important. Hitting a tug boat that is used to help resupply Snake island is therefore important to Ukraine.

It was apparently carrying a Tor module, and reportedly 10 crew MIA presumed dead, 23 WIA.

There is an important lesson to learn here. One being that Russia badly lacks ships with decent air defense. They've tried to resolve it by mountin Tor modules on the helo-pads of various vessels, including at least two 22160 patrol ships, and thuis tug. Clearly that doesn't help.

For Zmeiniy, the wise choice would obvious be to park a few frigates-corvettes off the coast and keep the island in their striking range. That would make it unusable for Ukraine, and wouldn't risk ships close to Ukraine's coastline. But the entire BSF has 3 modern-ish frigates and 0 corvettes. Instead they've stuck buckets of additional air defenses on the island. I'll post a shot of new Russian positions there when I get a chance.

Поражен буксир "Василий Бех" у острова Змеинный

У острове Змеинный потеряли буксир Василий Бех (ранее назывался СБ-739) перевозивший ЗРК Тор и боеприпасы на остров. Буксир был поражен противокорабельной ракетой https://t.me/boris_rozhin/53935 - по одним заявлениям Гарпуном, по другом - Бримстоун.…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Colonelcassad

В Одесской области у острова Змеиный ВМС Украины поразили буксир черноморского флота России «Василий Бех» с ЗРК «TOP» на борту. Выстрел был произведен в 03:55 из системы «Гарпун». На данный момент буксир пылает. Из 33 человек экипажа 10 пропали без вести, 23 ранены, сообщают украинские каналы...

t.me

Ranger25 · Jun 17, 2022

According to the Odesa Oblast Military Administration the Tug has now completely sunk. As always take with some thought as details continue to emerge.

Like Feanor and others have stated, yes a Tug BUt not just a TUG. Especially given the Black Sea Fleet‘s capability and its logistical support missions the tug has been conducting

Damaged Russian tugboat “The Vasily Bekh” has sunk – Odessa Oblast Military Administration

KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO — FRIDAY, JUNE 17, 2022, 20:37

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine strikes Russia's Vasily Bekh Rescue Tug with antiship missiles - Naval News

Ukrainian Forces struck the Russian Navy's project 22870 Rescue Tug, Vasily Bekh (SB-739), with two anti-ship missiles on June 17, 2022.

www.navalnews.com

GermanHerman · Jun 17, 2022

National Defense Magazine published an Interview with Denys Sharapov, Ukraine’s deputy minister of the defense in charge of procurement, and Brig. Gen. Volodymyr Karpenko, land forces command logistics commander.

Gen. Karpenko: [...] As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. … Approximately 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles have been lost, 400 tanks, 700 artillery systems.

That is a mathematical estimation we can make based on the length of the frontline and the intensity of the conflict. So, I'm giving you this estimate just for you to understand how significant the requirement is based on the intensity of the conflict.

These are, as stated, very rough approximations made up by a single officer during the interview. In addition some have pointed out that ukraine might overstate its current losses in order to heighten the pressure on donor nations to send more aid (Arestovich stating 500 kia per day for example seems extremly high).

For context Oryx lists as today 192 Tanks, 135 IFV (+88 AFV / 67 APC / 104 IMV) and 34 towed + 40 SP artillery systems as losses for the UAF.

Given how little we hear about the situation the UAF are in I thought it would still be interesting for some of you.

vikingatespam · Jun 17, 2022

I wonder if Karpenko's number incorporate captured Russian vehicles. If they lost 400 tanks, but Poland sent 200 and they captured significant # of Russian tanks, that puts them stronger than the beginning of the war.

seaspear · Jun 17, 2022

It could be easy to state numbers of tanks lost and replaced, but having trained and experienced crews on both sides may not be so replaceable

vikingatespam · Jun 17, 2022

Speaking of training, I have head a few claims that the RU are sending some of their "3rd Btl." from various units, which are the training cadres. Has this been confirmed ?

Big_Zucchini · Jun 18, 2022

seaspear said:
It could be easy to state numbers of tanks lost and replaced, but having trained and experienced crews on both sides may not be so replaceable

That is basically it.
Except for the occassional oddity, crews are harder to replace than MBTs.

OPSSG · Jun 18, 2022

Big_Zucchini said:
That is basically it.
Except for the occassional oddity, crews are harder to replace than MBTs.

Agreed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538265828134887424

As I have warned before, given the level of training of Ukrainian forces and their lack of coordination (eg. passage of line procedures or blue force tracking), friendly fire is inevitable. An American finds out that fighting an insurgency and fighting a full blown war is two completely different things.

T.C.P · Jun 18, 2022

OPSSG said:
Agreed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1538265828134887424
As I have warned before, given the level of training of Ukrainian forces and their lack of coordination (eg. passage of line procedures or blue force tracking), friendly fire is inevitable. An American finds out that fighting an insurgency and fighting a full blown war is two completely different things.

That was chilling, but luckily for them otherside has the same issue and maybe even worse, Just saw a video a few days ago of a chechen yelling down an LPR reservist for almost hitting them. The level of the LNR/DPR reservists cannot be any better if not worse than the worst trained Ukrainain TDF troops.

vikingatespam · Jun 18, 2022

Being a foreign volunteer is entirely a pot-luck. Who knows what you get. There is no established logistical tail to attach to, so your experiences are going to vary tremendously.

Feanor · Jun 18, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Another Ukrainian strike lands in Novaya Kahovka.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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