The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

Just add: The Greek colony in the area practically can be set as initial known settlement. That's why Imperial Russia call Crimea and land adjacent what's now Kherson and part of zaparozhye as Taurida Governorate or Taurida Oblast. Derived from Greek name of Taurica refering to their first settlement there.

 

[ngatimozart]

Indeed, on the present day site of Odessa a Greek settlement had been established some time in the 6th or 7th century BCE, and there were a scattering of other Greek settlements around what is now known as the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Given how far back these settlements were founded, much of the then Greek populations intermarried with other groups that were either native to the area, or later migrated/settled in the region. However, there had been Greek/Hellenistic colonies like the Bosporan Kingdom, a Greco-Scythian state. At times the kingdom was a client-state of the Roman Empire, whilst other times it was actually part of a Roman province (during the reign of Emperor Nero IIRC).

AFAIK most of the current ethnic Greeks in the region are descendants of ethnic Greeks who migrated to the region in a number of waves from Anatolia following the fall of the Byzantine Empire and successor states starting around 1460.

The above history, as well as the histories of a number of other groups which currently and/or formerly could be found in the region, is one of the reasons why I have a very hard time taking statements about Russian "historical claims" to certain regions.

To continue the history lesson a bit, Odessa was established by a decree in 1790 by Catherine II (Catherine the Great) even though the area had been settled at various times over the preceding 2,000 years. There are cities which had been founded by European colonists in the New World (North, Central & South America) centuries before this decree had been made.

The ancient Greeks got around a bit. They had cities along the Aegean coast of modern day Turkey when it was part of the Persian Empire and this was long before some Macedonian fulla called Alexander went walkabout with some mates of his for a spot of invading, looting and pillaging. To this day there is a Greek island just off the Turkish coast that annoys the hell out of the Turks. Alexander actually got to India during his travels and apparently some of his soldiers remained behind at various places instead of returning home. It is thought that some of the Caucasian peoples found in the region are descendants of Alexanders army.

The other interesting point is that we know that the area now known as the Black Sea had a human population 7,000 years ago and evidence of such has been found Evidence found of Noah's ark flood victims | Science | The Guardian. Homes, tools and other artefacts were found on the bottom of the Black Sea by by Robert Ballard in 2000. His search was based on a theory by Ryan and Pitman that a large flood had occurred overtopping what was a freshwater lake by saltwater. Evidence for a Flood | Science| Smithsonian Magazine However the size and time of the inundation is controversial with some claiming that it was earlier and smaller Noah’s Not-so-big Flood – Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (whoi.edu) But my point is that we have solid evidence of people living in the region between the end of the last ice age and whenever the inundation occurred, be it 9.800 years ago or 7,000 years ago. In either case the refugees from the inundation would've definitely moved to the area around where modern day Odessa is located in order to escape the rising water. Ryan and Pitman estimated that they would have had to travel approximately 25 - 30 km a day to keep ahead of the rising water.

 

[Atunga]

If one looks at Yanukovych's history at least back as far as ~2004, one should readily see a number of rather glaring issues. The Orange Revolution of 2004-2005 comes immediately to mind. Associated with that is the assassination attempt against an opposing candidate for the Ukrainian Presidency (Viktor Yushchenko) and the Ukraine Supreme Court calling for a repeat runoff election as a result of reports of widespread electoral fraud and voter intimidation in favour of Yanukovych.

The way I have read that, is that Yanukovych was already quite unpopular with a sizeable segment of Ukrainian society. For people to continue to make or repeat claims that his ouster in 2014 was the handiwork of the CIA, particularly given just how much of the Ukraine has supposedly been penetrated by Russian intelligence operatives and/or assets...

There’s no evidence of CIA or MI6 meddling in the euro maidan but there’s evidence of US government meddling, Victoria Nuland didn’t deny it as u can see from the video. Hand picking leaders of a country can hardly be called democracy
@Atunga Banned for 2 weeks for ignoring Moderators direction about posting material regarding alleged US interference in Ukrainian internal affairs. You are very lucky that this ban isn't longer or permanent considering your record.

Ngatimozart.

 

[STURM]

Hand picking leaders of a country can hardly be called democracy

Well I absolutely have no idea if that's indeed the case here but countries like the U.S. and Britain do have a long history of selecting the leaders the want on the basis that it's in line with their national interests; whether it's inline with the interests of the locals is of secondary importance. Of course things often backfire like in case of Iran where the overthrow of Mossadegh led to the Shah's return which in turn led to the 1979 revolution.

 

[SolarWind]

There’s no evidence of CIA or MI6 meddling in the euro maidan but there’s evidence of US government meddling, Victoria Nuland didn’t deny it as u can see from the video. Hand picking leaders of a country can hardly be called democracy

If I understand correctly, there may have been rhetorical support of legitimate political candidates and it would have been backed up by the freedom of speech and the fact that it is a legitimate diplomatic practice. Maybe it is different elsewhere in the world, where people feel that speaking amounts to meddling, but the freedom of speech is one of our core values and we thrive on argument and debate. The conspiracy theory that the mods asked not to bring up again has a logical fallacy. While it may be true in theory that civil unrest can be exploited by or through neighboring states to contribute to the state of a revolution, the thought itself does not evaluate to actual evidence of outside meddling.

 

[seaspear]

Of course it goes without saying that Russia would never interfere with another countries political processes even if it was considered against the interests of Russia

 

[ngatimozart]

ISW Upgrades. These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13
June 13, 7:30pm ET

Main Points.

• Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk on June 13, but Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are not encircled in the city.
• Russian forces carried out unsuccessful ground assaults in an attempt to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) near Popasna and Bakhmut.
• Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and north of Slovyansk, and are likely setting conditions for an assault on Siversk and northwestern Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.
• Russian forces are likely conducting a limited offensive directly northeast of Kharkiv City in a likely attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Russian rear areas and secured some successes.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaging in ongoing fighting for Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian occupation authorities likely staged terrorist activity in Melitopol and Berdyansk for Russia Day on June 12.

Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia published and quickly removed an appeal by the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kirelenko for Russia to rebuild the Donbas on June 12 and blamed hackers for what they (likely falsely) claimed was a “fake publication.” Izvestia likely intended to save the article for a later date to set informational conditions for Russian annexation of Donbas. Kirelenko’s appeal stated that Russia will restore the Donbas regardless of high costs or if doing so lowers the standard of living in Russia.[1] Izvestia blamed unknown hackers for publishing a “fake article,” but it is possible that hackers instead released an article Izvestia had prepared to publish at a later date. The Kremlin previously published and removed an article prematurely celebrating a Russian victory over Ukraine in late February and discussing the capture of Ukraine in past tense in anticipation of Ukraine’s capitulation during the first Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Belarus.[2] Unnamed Kremlin officials previously identified Kirelenko as the future head of a new Russian federal district, which would encompass Donbas, and occupied settlements in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[3]

Russia continues to deploy insufficiently prepared volunteer and reserve forces to reinforce its ongoing operations. Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia released footage showing Russian artillery reservists undergoing training with old D-20 howitzers reportedly within 10 days of their deployment to Ukraine.[4] The reservists focused on learning how to operate hand-held weapons, despite being reportedly only days away from deploying. Social media footage also showed Russian forces transporting Russian volunteer and reserve units with T-80BV tanks (a variant produced in 1985, as opposed to the modernized T-80 BVM operated by the 1st Guards Tank Army) and BMP-1 armored personnel carriers (which have largely been phased out in favor of the BMP-2) to Belgorod Oblast on June 9.[5] Additional social media footage showed Russian forces transporting T-80BV tanks removed from storage in Moscow Oblast on June 9.[6]

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

 

[Feanor]

It appears the T-62s were saw with cages are T-62Ms, allegedly meant for rebel reservists. Prior to this we saw rebel reservists with no armored vehicles of any kind, just mobilized light infantry, typically without even body armor, and old metal helmets. The situation has improved somewhat, partly due to efforts from LDNR authorities, partly due to volunteers continuing to donate equipment, but they are still significantly underequipped compared to even Ukrainian territorial defense formations. Sending them T-62Ms makes sense and follows the pattern of the type being donated to local friendlies in various war zones (Syria, Libya).

Уголок Ситха

Т-62 на службе резервистов ВСН. @Ugolok_Sitha

t.me

Russian occupation authorities likely staged terrorist activity in Melitopol and Berdyansk for Russia Day on June 12.
Russia continues to deploy insufficiently prepared volunteer and reserve forces to reinforce its ongoing operations. Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia released footage showing Russian artillery reservists undergoing training with old D-20 howitzers reportedly within 10 days of their deployment to Ukraine.[4] The reservists focused on learning how to operate hand-held weapons, despite being reportedly only days away from deploying. Social media footage also showed Russian forces transporting Russian volunteer and reserve units with T-80BV tanks (a variant produced in 1985, as opposed to the modernized T-80 BVM operated by the 1st Guards Tank Army) and BMP-1 armored personnel carriers (which have largely been phased out in favor of the BMP-2) to Belgorod Oblast on June 9.[5] Additional social media footage showed Russian forces transporting T-80BV tanks removed from storage in Moscow Oblast on June 9.[6]

I don't think these are Russian reservists, I think Izvestia is wrong. To the best of my knowledge, only the LDNR have mobilized reservists. Russia has been sending in volunteer irregulars and hastily recruiting more contract soldiers. Overall these forces have been a parade of older equipment that the Russian army itself was slowly phasing out, including 2S5s, older Grad variants, BMP-1s, and the T-80BV fleet fits perfectly into this. Russia has a lot of them in storage.

There is of course another possibility, which is that these are volunteer reservists signing short contracts. I.e. they are reservists, in the sense that they are demobilized soldiers, but they're not being mobilized, they're signing short contracts and being deployed that way. I'll see if I can find any information on actual mobilization being done by Russia.

 

[vikingatespam]

T-62: I suppose an old tank is better than no tank, but this will put an increased strain on the RU logistical system. A new set of spare parts has to be put into the system. A new type of main gun ammo has to be put into the system. Who will train the crewmen of these tanks ? Given the apparent limited RU/LPR/DPR manpower, can you really afford to stick 4 guys into an old tank with what probably amounts to very limited training ?

"Short Contracts"

This is a term I have heard before, which I suppose are the 90 day ones I have heard about. What do we know about these contracts ? Are they prevalent ? Are they a factor in the RU manpower problems ?

 

[Feanor]

T-62: I suppose an old tank is better than no tank, but this will put an increased strain on the RU logistical system. A new set of spare parts has to be put into the system. A new type of main gun ammo has to be put into the system. Who will train the crewmen of these tanks ? Given the apparent limited RU/LPR/DPR manpower, can you really afford to stick 4 guys into an old tank with what probably amounts to very limited training ?

Some tank, even if old, is better then no tank. And that's kind of the issue with LDNR reservists. They're almost completely untrained, and rather haphazardly armed. Typically they're motorized light infantry with some artillery support. They're also mostly used to hold static positions, or provide rear security. So strengthening a regiment of light infantry with 10-30 older MBTs isn't the worst idea. It certainly isn't good. But it's better.

"Short Contracts"

This is a term I have heard before, which I suppose are the 90 day ones I have heard about. What do we know about these contracts ? Are they prevalent ? Are they a factor in the RU manpower problems ?

They're a way to try and reduce manpower problems by allowing anyone who has served before, even as a conscript, to sign a 90 day contract to deploy to a warzone, be it Syria, or Ukraine. It's basically designed to give the military a way to tap into those who would otherwise end up not going at all or going as volunteer irregulars. These are people who aren't willing to commit to a 3 year contract, but have some military experience (often very little very long ago) and can be useful. Their quality is highly uneven, you get someone who's 30-ish may have served 3, 5, or 7, years relatively recently, and knows that they're doing quite well but isn't willing to ditch an entire civilian career to re-enlist for the long term. But they can do 90 days, be an asset, and then go home knowing they've done their duty and served their country. Or you can get someone who's 40, did 2 years as a conscript in a construction btln in 2001, and is now gung-ho on propaganda, but is out of shape, and not particularly valuable or skilled.

I think the use of irregulars and the issues with short contracts all point to the fact that Russia needs to work on getting rid of the draft.

 

[vikingatespam]

I would love to know the turnover rate for the 30 day contractors. Can the RU government issue stop-loss orders ?

 

[T.C.P]

As a civillian with zero iota of military experience I have been sceptical of the effectiveness of the S-8 rocket volleys launched by Russian helicopters at enemy directions. I knew that the Russian choppers had a ballistic computer on board that helped make the unguided rocket launches somewhat accurate. But reading about it is onething and seeing is another. Just saw the thermal video of the rockets being luanched and I was surprised how closely they actually cluster together.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vc2m1e
This is a picture of a feild that was apparently a target ofa much larger salvo, the area coverage is quite intense

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVNIcf0WIAAfmrz?format=jpg&name=large

 

[ngatimozart]

ISW Upgrades. These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14
June 14, 5:00 pm ET

Main Points.

• Russian military authorities are pursuing options to increase the available pool of eligible recruits to account for continued personnel losses in Ukraine.
• Russian forces are continuing to fight for control of the Azot industrial plant and have destroyed all bridges between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, likely to isolate the remaining Ukrainian defenders within the city from critical lines of communication.
• Russian forces continue to prepare for offensive operations southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman toward Slovyansk.
• Russian forces are continuing offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut near the T1302 highway to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations to push Ukrainian troops away from frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.
• Ukrainian counterattacks have forced Russian troops on the Southern Axis to take up and strengthen defensive positions.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Head of Logistics for the Belarusian Armed Forces Major General Andrei Burdyko announced that the exercise will involve military authorities, unspecified military units, and logistics organizations and is intended to improve the coherency of command-and-control and logistics support to increase the overall level of training and practical skills of personnel in a “dynamically changing environment.”[1] Despite the launch of this exercise, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine due to the threat of domestic unrest that President Alexander Lukashenko faces if he involves already-limited Belarusian military assets in combat.[2] Any Belarusian entrance into the war would also likely provoke further crippling sanctions on Belarus. Any unsupported Belarusian attack against northern Ukraine would likely be highly ineffective, and the quality of Belarusian troops remains low. ISW will continue to monitor Belarusian movements but does not forecast a Belarusian entrance into the war at this time.

Russian authorities may be accelerating plans to annex occupied areas of Ukraine and are arranging political and administrative contingencies for control of annexed territories. Russian military correspondent Sasha Kots posted an image of a map that was displayed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum depicting a proposed scheme for the “administrative-territorial” division of Ukraine following the war on a three-to-five-year transition scale.[3] The proposed scheme divides Ukrainian oblasts into Russian “territorial districts" and suggests the manner in which Russian authorities hope to incorporate Ukrainian territory directly into Russia. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko additionally outlined a series of indicators that he claimed suggest that Russian authorities are planning to annex occupied Donetsk Oblast as soon as September 1, 2022.[4] Andryushchenko stated that the leadership of occupied Donetsk has entirely passed from authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) to Russian officials and that Russian educational authorities are already referring to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson as regions of Russia. Andryushchenko additionally stated that the financial and legal systems in occupied Donetsk have already transitioned to Russian systems. Despite the apparent lack of a Kremlin-backed mandate concerning the condition of occupied areas, Russian authorities are likely pushing to expedite a comprehensive annexation process in order to consolidate control over Ukrainian territories and integrate them into Russia’s political and economic environment. However, the Kremlin retains several options in occupied Ukrainian territory and is not bound to any single annexation plan.

The Russian military leadership continues to expand its pool of eligible recruits by manipulating service requirements. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok suggested that Russian authorities are preparing to increase the age limit for military service from 40 to 49 and to drop the existing requirement for past military service to serve in tank and motorized infantry units.[5] If true, the shift demonstrates the Kremlin's increasing desperation for recruits to fill frontline units, regardless of their poor skills. Kotyenok echoed calls made by other milbloggers to reduce the health requirements for those serving in rear and support roles.[6] Kotyenok additionally noted that while Russian recruits must have clean criminal records to serve, private military companies such as the Wagner Group will allow those with “mild misdemeanors” into service and that many of these low-level offenders have been mobilized into combat with Wagner in Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian military leadership will likely continue efforts to expand the pool of eligible recruits, even at the cost of high-quality military personnel.

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

 

[Feanor]

It appears the T-62s were saw with cages are T-62Ms, allegedly meant for rebel reservists. Prior to this we saw rebel reservists with no armored vehicles of any kind, just mobilized light infantry, typically without even body armor, and old metal helmets. The situation has improved somewhat, partly due to efforts from LDNR authorities, partly due to volunteers continuing to donate equipment, but they are still significantly underequipped compared to even Ukrainian territorial defense formations. Sending them T-62Ms makes sense and follows the pattern of the type being donated to local friendlies in various war zones (Syria, Libya).

Уголок Ситха

Т-62 на службе резервистов ВСН. @Ugolok_Sitha

t.me

The T-62 saga continues. We have two more interesting photos of the T-62s.

First is a T-62MV, with no cage on top. The sign says "good night, we are from Sochi" which is a town in Russia. This could mean anything of course, from DNR fighters being Russian volunteers, to Russian mercenaries or irregulars. The tank and a piece of the sideskirts are covered in K-1 tiles. But the main sideskirt apparently is missing and has been replaced with scrap metal. Improvised sideskirts are normal in LDNR hands, especially for light armor. BMPs frequently get rubber sideskirts.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Then we have this one. It's a T-62M, not MV, no ERA tiles here... or are there? Look at the side-skirt. It's a modern Russian sideskirt off of a T-80BVM or T-72B3mod'16. Russia could of course install them at depots or field repair units. However they obviously didn't. None of the T-62 photos we saw until now had them. But we did see improvised side-skirts above. I think this is more of the same, expect in this case sides kirts from a more modern tank were available. These probably came from a destroyed vehicle.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

It's still not completely clear who the operators are. The graffiti on the second tank says Tuapse, a town in southern Russia, suspiciously near Sochi. I wonder if that area has some sort of staging area or training ground, where these vehicles are coming from.

I would love to know the turnover rate for the 30 day contractors. Can the RU government issue stop-loss orders ?

"Can" they? I'm sure they can. Would they want to? I suspect not. The Russian military is far looser on enforcing service contracts, and on letting people leave before their contract time is up. Also I'm not aware of 30 day contracts, I'm aware of 90 day contracts.

As a civillian with zero iota of military experience I have been sceptical of the effectiveness of the S-8 rocket volleys launched by Russian helicopters at enemy directions. I knew that the Russian choppers had a ballistic computer on board that helped make the unguided rocket launches somewhat accurate. But reading about it is onething and seeing is another. Just saw the thermal video of the rockets being luanched and I was surprised how closely they actually cluster together.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/vc2m1e
This is a picture of a feild that was apparently a target ofa much larger salvo, the area coverage is quite intense

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FVNIcf0WIAAfmrz?format=jpg&name=large

This is real military hardware. Why wouldn't it cluster? Rifles group when fired at the same target. Artillery groups when fired at the same location. Why wouldn't unguided rockets? The real issue with these barrages is that they're ill-suited to dislodging entrenched infantry. If an open artillery position gets hit by a barrage like that, especially towed guns or Grads, they will have a bad day. But if dug in infantry gets hit, and they hear the rockets coming and take cover, there could be very few to no casualties. You posted that "lunar" landscape with the craters. How many military targets got hit? Do we see any trenches, dug in positions, vehicles, bodies, anything at all?

 

[z_zemer]

TEXT DELETED - SPAM

NGAtimozart is providing zero value and just copy and pasting stuff a civilian has been reading since 2013. Furthermore, that moderator ngatimozart is the lamest one here and I anticipate being banned for varying opinions. I AM ONLY POSTING BECAUSE I BELIEVE THIS WEBSITE IS AT RISK OF BECOMING CENSORED BY OPINIONS.

You anticipated correctly and you are banned permanently for trolling and spamming. Your remarks about me are treated with the disdain that they deserve. How bad, to sad, never mind. Hasta la vista.

Ngatimozart.

 

[Vivendi]

According to Swedish newspaper DN, the Swedish intelligence service was skeptical that Russia would actually invade. The US warned Swedish top politicians but (not surprisingly) the Swedish politicians decided to listen to their own intelligence service. Sverige missade ryska invasionen - DN.SE

It has previously been reported that French Intelligence did not believe the invasion would happen, and that the leader was fired because of this. French military spy chief quits after failure to predict Russian invasion (france24.com)

The DN article linked to above, claims that in addition to Swedish and French Intelligence, also the Germans got it wrong...

If this is true, then perhaps one should not be too surprised that Ukrainian president Zelenskyj was not completely convinced that the US/UK/CAN intelligence was correct. This is speculation on my side, but perhaps some of the skepticism amongst some European politicians were also influenced by previous US intelligence "failures" in particular the infamous Iran "WMD" scandal some years back...?

For the record, Norwegian Intelligence was fully aligned with the US/UK/CAN, and agreed with their assessment. They have publicly said they saw clear indications of preparations for a major military operation even back in December, and the indications of a major invasion just grew more and stronger in January and February.

The old saying "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future" is probably still relevant -- in their defense, it was somewhat hard to accept that Russia would actually do something so risky as a massive surprise invasion of Ukraine.

 

[seaspear]

Hearing some of President Putin's speeches one would easily remember a similar speech from an earlier era ,certainly the racial vilification has been repeated
Lebensraum - Hitler's Policy of Eastern Expansion (thoughtco.com)

 

[At lakes]

NGAtimozart is providing zero value and just copy and pasting stuff a civilian has been reading since 2013. Furthermore, that moderator ngatimozart is the lamest one here and I anticipate being banned for varying opinions. I AM ONLY POSTING BECAUSE I BELIEVE THIS WEBSITE IS AT RISK OF BECOMING CENSORED BY OPINIONS

I would suggest if you have an issue with a moderators actions and or opinions then a PM would be the most appropriate action and discuss your concerns with the moderator

 

[STURM]

The old saying "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future" is probably still relevant -- in their defense, it was somewhat hard to accept that Russia would actually do something so risky as a massive surprise invasion of Ukraine.

Years from now; when some key players are willing to talk more openly and when researchers/historians are able to access primary source material; hopefully someone will write a book about the events leading up to the invasion; i.e. the moment Putin decided he had to invade; the advice his military gave him; how certain NATO countries [with a intel history that frequently gets things wrong] obtained the intel which indicated a invasion was imminent; the role certain NATO countries played in convincing Zelensky to do certain things; any disagreements between Zelensky and his NATO backers; behind the scenes discussions between the Ukrainians and Russians, the things that NATO intel got wrong, etc.

 

[ngatimozart]

I would suggest if you have an issue with a moderators actions and or opinions then a PM would be the most appropriate action and discuss your concerns with the moderator

Thanks. The former poster must have been one of my fervent fans. They are quite excitable and passionate.