The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508447343166861314

4. This is a staged video to pretend that they are using suppressive fire to cross a danger area is one way of doing it. A more effective way is to use smoke grenades to cross the danger area. I don’t even know what sort of targets they are shooting at in the above video — if the enemy is hidden well, they would taken multiple causalities at this danger area — based on their tactics. We will see how many Chechens remain in the fight in the next 14 days. The stupid tend to die first.

Assuming they're even in the fight. Maybe they're taking videos, while the real fight is Russian Marines and rebel forces. It's really messy.

On a side note, I haven't been able to do a full update post, short on time. I'll try to get everything tomorrow or Friday. Sorry for the lack of updates. It's not a lack of info, it's a lack of dedicated time.

 

[Ananda]

single Khalibre from one of the Russian Navy's missile boats would have destroyed that ship. Ukraine did the right thing. A Russian missile boat taking out the Ukrainian flag ship would have made for great propaganda footage for the Russians.

Some can be argue that by scuttling Hetman Sahaidachny, Ukrainian Navy practically folding themselves. This Frigate in 2014 is used as symbol of Ukraine Navy continue fighting spirit, when they lost practically half of their fleet in Crimea.

Yes it will be big target for Russian Navy if that Frigate still operational. However so far they don't attack Ukraine Navy ships in Odessa harbour yet. Only when they venture to the sea they are attacking. Keeping that ship operational can also boost Ukraine morale (especially the Navy).

So history will tell if their decision is prematurely or not.

 

[CumbrianRover]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1508447343166861314

4. This is a staged video to pretend that they are using suppressive fire to cross a danger area is one way of doing it. A more effective way is to use smoke grenades to cross the danger area. I don’t even know what sort of targets they are shooting at in the above video — if the enemy is hidden well, they would taken multiple causalities at this danger area — based on their tactics. We will see how many Chechens remain in the fight in the next 14 days. The stupid tend to die first.

Not disagreeing, but, to add to that, stamina.

And, while you do get used to sleeping in a doss bag, getting enough hot food, keeping clean are another thing and of course, you are not fighting through one house which is knackering for a section you are fighting through a city.

Beevor wrote a book called Stalingrad and one take from the book is that malnutrition caused the stomach to shrink and contract and it was never able to regain the capacity to gain enough carbs for the adult body to survive and flourish.

What is the temperature in Ukraine today?

 

[the concerned]

I have stated this before but there are numerous articles on the Ukrainians due to be supplied with UK sea spear missiles. This was reported early February.

 

[koxinga]

I have stated this before but there are numerous articles on the Ukrainians due to be supplied with UK sea spear missiles. This was reported early February.

Currently an air-launched weapon (Brimstone). Ground launch variant have been proposed but I am not sure if it is even ready or tested.

 

[the concerned]

Apparently when it was in competition for the LCS surface weapon it was tested. I know this doesn't have the punch of bigger ASM's but surely its size would make it extremely difficult to intercept. Also would the TB2 drone be capable of carrying air launched variants.

 

[Vivendi]

Claims about radiation sickness in Russian soldiers debunked by a nuclear scientist:

Cheryl Rofer on Twitter: "Extremely doubtful that this is true" / Twitter

This kind of propaganda does not help Ukraine and should be stopped IMHO. Could perhaps be ignorance, but I am not so sure about it.

 

[koxinga]

Apparently when it was in competition for the LCS surface weapon it was tested. I know this doesn't have the punch of bigger ASM's but surely its size would make it extremely difficult to intercept. Also would the TB2 drone be capable of carrying air launched variants.

Doesn't make sense at all. If it is meant for an anti-ship mission, there are better options out there.

If it is to arm the TB2, platform integration has not been done yet so it will take a long time and the obvious question is why Brimestone when Turkey can provide similar solutions for integration.

 

[cdxbow]

More drone footage documenting the very significant destruction of Mariupol by Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509453573687595013

It is horribly reminiscent of destruction of cities in WWII.
Nothing can justify doing this.

 

[John Fedup]

Claims about radiation sickness in Russian soldiers debunked by a nuclear scientist:

Cheryl Rofer on Twitter: "Extremely doubtful that this is true" / Twitter

This kind of propaganda does not help Ukraine and should be stopped IMHO. Could perhaps be ignorance, but I am not so sure about it.

Maybe the digging of trenches reason for radiation sickness diverts from the real reason, perhaps these fools damaged the sarcophagus around the damaged reactor. That being said, the story is likely fake news.

 

[Vivendi]

I do too, but I don't think it will because NATO won't give Putin a reason to go nuclear and the sinking of Russian ships may be just enough to cause him to nut off and cross the nuclear Rubicon. That's something none of us really don't want.

I am not sure if a few NSM missiles would be enough to trigger a nuclear reaction -- if this is the case then perhaps Norway should ship some of the older penguin missiles, it seems they also exist in a "coastal defence" variant PENGUIN.pdf (spycom.org)

 

[Wisemarko]

In the battles for the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, one of the Russian T-72B tanks withstood a hit in the upper part of the tower of the Swedish-British portable NLAW ATGM, in the attack footage, one of the nationalists of the Azov battalion shoots at a Russian T-72B tank.

The footage of the destroyed division of the S-300 air defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the settlement of Circuna, Kharkiv region, was published by the Russian Defense Ministry. The coordinates of the location of the S-300 air defense system of Ukraine were established with the help of electronic intelligence, after which the positions were struck by missile weapons. As a result of an accurate hit, the launchers of the S-300 air defense system and transport-loading vehicles with ammunition were destroyed.

Published footage of the calculations of the operational-tactical missile complex "Iskander-K" and the launch of the cruise missile R-500 in Ukraine. Iskander is a family of operational and tactical missile systems that has been in service with the Russian army for 15 years. Iskander is not a single missile system, but several modifications of various missiles. The basis of the Iskander-K complex is the 9K728 cruise missile, also known as the R-500, the launch of which is shown in the video. The missile has incredible accuracy, and is capable of hitting targets with an accuracy of up to two meters. Officially, the range of the R-500 missile is about 500 kilometers, but many sources believe that the actual range of the missile is 2000-2500

The back-blast of the missile in the video is setting the grass on fire!

 

[John Fedup]

Some more Russian military kit that the West will no doubt have access to. I guess the battle plan didn’t include provision for destroying valuable kit that had to be abandoned thereby denying enemies intelligence on this stuff. Another example of the consequences of a presumed short war.

One Of Russia’s Newest Air Defense Systems Has Been Captured In Ukraine

Ukrainian and foreign intelligence agencies could glean much from captured Russian Barnaul-T air defense radar and command post vehicles.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Vivendi]

Updated maps by Nathan Ruser: Nathan Ruser on Twitter: "Putin's War - The Daily Brief - March 31. https://t.co/MhsWKfrCDk" / Twitter

Very interesting, he says every day the last week Ukraine has gained more territory than lost. NATO and in particular European countries should escalate military assistance. What would be most helpful for Ukraine when being on the offensive?

 

[Vivendi]

Status week 5, from another perspective:
Darth Putin on Twitter: / Twitter

The real reason why Putin don't know what is going on in Ukraine?
Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) / Twitter

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

I believe the Russian doing that. Basically they're screening all the Ukrainian shores not under their control. Practically they are bottling up Odessa. Somehow it works, as Ukraine (in my opinion) prematurely scuttle their own flag ship, because of that 'posturing'.



Yes, Russian Navy I believe also calculating that Ukraine actually have some of that Neptune Land Based SSM operational. That's one of the reason I believe they are still keep some distance from Odessa.

Neptune Analyzing Ukraine’s Anti-Ship Missile - Overt Defense

With tensions running high and the threat of conflict looming between Ukraine and Russia, We take a look at Ukraine's Neptune Anti-Ship missile.

www.overtdefense.com

Perhaps why Ukraine did not ask (at least in media talking) on Land Based SSM. Because they have it, but not decided to use it yet. Unless I suspect Russian Navy making Amphibious operation. I don't know, that's just my speculations, as Ukraine already talk publicly this system already operational before this war.

This is rather old (ten days old now), but has some interesting photos and information on Russian naval assets and their movements in the Black Sea:

Russia's amphibious operation dilemma - Naval News

Speculation about landing operations has always existed, as Russia has reinforced its Black Sea Fleet with additional landing assets.

www.navalnews.com

I'm just a civvie and of course don't know about these things, but it appears the Russians weren't concerned about defenses in Odessa. That's based on how near to the shore it appears to me they have patrolled there. But I don't know if they came within effective range of whatever defences they believe Ukraine has deployed, if any. I am ignorant about such things. Or perhaps the Russians are confident the Ukrainians would not dare to attack for fear of retaliation (fearsome barrage as you described or triggering nuclear response). The article concludes these patrols are for show to keep Ukrainian forces tied down in Odessa and they will not attempt an amphibious landing.

Here is a newer article about the mines floating in the Black Sea. Of course the Russians have blamed the Ukrainians, but there is evidence to suspect the Russians themselves may well be responsible. This is coming from the Americans, so grains of salt needed, but it does stand to reason as a possibility:

Opinion: Is there a serious sea mine threat in the Black Sea? - Naval News

Russia's invasion of Ukraine had a significant impact on the freedom of navigation in the Black Sea. While blockades of areas off the coast of Odessa restricted maritime routes, a NAVTEX message from the Russian station of Novorossiysk revealed a new threat: floating sea mines…

www.navalnews.com

Their take on the sinking of the Orsk (including assertion that Ukraine has no anti-ship missiles):

Ukraine strikes Russia's Alligator class LST with ballistic missile - Naval News

Ukrainian forces struck the Russian Alligator class LST while the vessel was berthed in Berdyansk, which was recently captured by Russia.

www.navalnews.com

It will be interesting to see the reports about this war coming out of the US Army College and US Naval College someday. Their reports about the conflicts in former Yugoslavia were surprisingly apolitical and accurate -- far, far more accurate than anything any journalist ever penned, especially the Navy reports. Of course the media ignored those reports, but I, for one, appreciated them. They also gave me more confidence and trust in our military. Sadly, our military has become increasingly politicized since then, however. This alarms me for a number of reasons, chief among them: how can a politicized Pentagon properly and honestly advise the Commander in Chief? This carries many of the same dangers as Putin surrounding himself with "yes men."

 

[John Fedup]

Status week 5, from another perspective:
Darth Putin on Twitter: / Twitter

The real reason why Putin don't know what is going on in Ukraine?
Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) / Twitter

Every time I see him at the end of these long tables makes me think somebody should tell him about zooming the guys at the other end. I guess they are to afraid to make the suggestion.

 

[CumbrianRover]

Do the West have enough IT data scientists to analyse - quickly - all the C³I tracked vehicles being taken by the UAF?

And what value is placed on them? One "counter battery radar, please"
"Sure thing CIA, that'll be 1000 NVGs please."

One Barnuel (sp) system, please "
"Sure MI6, 1000 NLAWS."

Heavens, Ukraine could make a fortune out of this and that's before scrap metal prices for all the rare earth manufactured electronics contained by captured kit.

 

[Vivendi]

A former Navy SEAL present his opinion on the value of tanks and attack helos in the modern battlefield:

Tanks and helos: How Ukraine can inform military modernization efforts

We all started with a plan, and it’s time to take in recent information and adjust accordingly.

www.defensenews.com

Perhaps he is onto something. Either one needs to develop a "stealth tank" and a "stealth attack helicopter" that are difficult to attack due to stealth features, or one needs to develop active countermeasures much further. Both approaches will increase the price significantly.

 

[hauritz]

I am sure this will be analysed for years. We don't get to witness these peer contests very often. To watch the Russians basically fail against Western sourced weapons could be indicative of a change in military paradigms. Perhaps tanks are going the way of the battleship or perhaps the Russians just aren't doing it right. Certainly they failed as far as logistics is concerned. They failed to control the skies as well. They were terrible job of communications as well. Maintenance also looked like a disaster. Actually it would probably be quicker just to list what they did right.

Personally I think that the battlefield is just doing what it has always done, it will evolve. New anti-tank weapons will probably result in a change of tactics and improvements in armour. I think more expendable unmanned armoured vehicles will find themselves on the battlefield either complementing or replacing manned systems.

One thing I am certain of is that there will be tens of thousands of hours of analysis going into just about every aspect of this conflict. What they will probably find is not just the failure of a single system like a tank but a cascading failure of just about everything.